SMCI just had its steepest 20-day drop since Apr 2026
SMCI's 20-day move is at -31% — steepest 20-day drop, in the top 2.7% of its 10-year range. The last 19 times SMCI reached this extreme, the median move over the next 15 trading days was +6.3% (74% finished higher).
This is a base rate from SMCI's own history — what happened after prior visits to this extreme — not a prediction. 19 prior cases is a guide, not a guarantee. Extremes can persist far longer than they "should."
How Rarity Radar works
We measure SMCI on several conditions (distance from its 200-day average, RSI, recent momentum) against its own 10-year history, then surface the single most extreme one and the empirical forward returns that followed prior visits to that extreme.
See SMCI's full cohort of historical analogs and calibrated outcome distribution:
SMCI cohort →Open in Chart Library