{"horizon":"5d","available_horizons":["10d","1d","5d"],"nominal_coverage":0.8,"calibration_map_version":"2026-09-13","source":"cohort_observations","rho_within_date":0.15,"global":{"n":1354638,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.791,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.025,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":2309,"effective_n":15246},"pit_histogram":{"as_of":"2026-06-11","horizon":"5d","n":311367,"n_dates":815,"expected_frac":[0.1,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.15,0.1],"max_abs_dev":0.0052,"shape":"APPROXIMATELY_FLAT","pinball_mean":1.29907,"bins":["<p10","p10-p25","p25-p50","p50-p75","p75-p90",">p90"],"note":"PIT/rank histogram: where realized 5d returns landed within each served distribution; flat = honest along the entire shape"},"calibration_audit":{"method":"anytime-valid e-process (testing-by-betting; Shafer/Vovk)","horizon":"5d","since":"2024-02-07","through":"2026-09-04","n_receipts":659446,"reject_threshold":20.0,"peak_trust_wealth":5.000659467525901e+66,"trust":{"band_80":{"max_wealth":4.296392067718526e+34,"final_wealth":0.0,"verdict":"breach"},"left_tail_10":{"max_wealth":1.3842033712275912e+30,"final_wealth":0.0,"verdict":"breach"},"right_tail_10":{"max_wealth":5.000659467525901e+66,"final_wealth":0.000284,"verdict":"breach"}},"trust_verdict":"breach","plain":"An adversarial betting martingale has audited every 5d band served since 2024-02-07 across 659,446 receipts. If we were over-claiming its wealth would compound; it peaked at 5000659467525900912266481746785672635789198481432627373844094517248.00 and BREACHED the rejection threshold of 20 — investigate.","verbosity":"summary","full_curves_hint":"call track_record(verbosity='full') for wealth_log10_curve arrays"},"hold_path_band":{"marginal_joint_coverage":0.6122,"hold_path_joint_coverage":0.807,"nominal_joint":0.8,"horizon_multipliers":{"1":1.448,"5":1.448,"10":1.448},"binding_horizon":null,"n_receipts":330694,"built":"2026-06-18 (v5 scalar)","plain":"Our marginal 80% bands hold each horizon on its own, but the full 1d->10d path lands inside all of them only ~61% of the time. The hold-path band widens each horizon by a scalar k=1.448 to restore ~81% JOINT coverage across 330,694 prior cases."},"earnings_calibration":{"finding":"Served 5d bands under-cover sharply near earnings — the earnings jump a symmetric historical band misses.","served_coverage_by_proximity":{"imminent":0.6108,"near":0.7012,"medium":0.8145,"far":0.8255,"unknown":0.8432},"correction_multiplier_by_proximity":{"imminent":1.6162,"near":1.2782,"medium":0.9609,"far":0.9303,"unknown":0.8797},"bucket_defs":{"imminent":"<=3d","near":"4-10d","medium":"11-30d","far":">30d"},"nominal":0.8,"n_receipts":341016,"plain":"Within 3 trading days of earnings, our standard 5d band historically held only ~61% of outcomes (nominal 80%) — earnings inject a jump the band can't see. The earnings-proximity multiplier widens it ~1.6x right before earnings and relaxes it once earnings are >10 days out."},"note":"Historical predicted-vs-realized coverage: how often the realized 5d return fell inside our nominal 80% band (p10-p90), measured across 1,354,638 prior cohort analyses spanning 2,309 distinct trading days (effective-n ~= 15,246). Audited past outcomes - not a forward prediction.","by_vol_regime":{"high":{"n":435996,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.76,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.107,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":890,"effective_n":5865},"low":{"n":449037,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.814,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":0.962,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":726,"effective_n":4796},"mid":{"n":469346,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.797,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.007,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":704,"effective_n":4654}},"by_tightness":{"1_loose":{"n":216516,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.775,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.075,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":2242,"effective_n":14118},"2_mid":{"n":430445,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.79,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.028,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":2244,"effective_n":14531},"3_firm":{"n":623518,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.793,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":1.017,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":2263,"effective_n":14783},"4_tight":{"n":84159,"nominal_coverage":0.8,"empirical_coverage":0.817,"calibrated_coverage":0.8,"conformal_mult":0.961,"sufficient":true,"n_distinct_dates":1821,"effective_n":10814}},"elapsed_ms":20}