NVDA Breakout: what happens next
Price coils into a tight range, then closes above the range high on elevated volume.
The honest historical base rate for the breakout pattern, plus NVDA's current shape cohort. These are empirical base rates, not predictions. Chart shape predicts the size of the next move more reliably than the direction. Not financial advice.
Breakout base rate
Across 1,393 detected breakout patterns in the database (all symbols, ~10 years). The honest test of the textbook read.
| Horizon | Avg return |
|---|---|
| 1-day | +0.17% |
| 3-day | +0.87% |
| 5-day | +1.53% |
| 10-day | +0.91% |
Forward returns are measured from the detected pattern bar. Average confidence of detected breakouts: 0.60.
How a breakout is detected
Chart Library's breakout detector looks for a tight consolidation (range narrower than 1.5x ATR over 30+ bars) followed by a bar that closes above the range high on volume at least 1.5x the consolidation average, then checks whether the next bars hold above the breakout level. Confidence blends range tightness, volume expansion, and follow-through.
NVDA current shape cohort
Separate from the pattern base rate above: this is the empirical forward-return distribution of 273 historical analogs of NVDA's recent chart shape as of 2026-05-20 (timeframe 1d). It is shape-based, not conditioned on the breakout — included as ticker context.
What separated the NVDA cohort (5d)
NVDA cohort outcome modes
300 analogs split by what they actually did over the next 5 days. A distribution, not a prediction.
Outcome modes
Run the live cohort against NVDA's freshest bar — full distribution chart, per-analog feature attribution, and the trade simulator.
Open NVDA in Chart Library →Frequently asked
- What happens after a breakout on NVDA?
- Across 1,393 historical breakout patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was +1.53% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 43.9%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for NVDA specifically.
- Is a breakout bullish or bearish?
- The textbook read for a breakout is bullish-leaning, but the honest historical base rate is positive on average: avg 5-day return +1.53%, win rate 43.9%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.
- What is NVDA's current cohort showing?
- As of 2026-05-20, NVDA's recent chart shape has 273 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of +0.63% and a typical absolute move of about 2.23% over 5 days. Open NVDA in Chart Library for the live distribution.