NVDA Ascending Wedge: what happens next
A rising lower trendline converging toward a flatter upper trendline — often a bearish reversal setup.
The honest historical base rate for the ascending wedge pattern, plus NVDA's current shape cohort. These are empirical base rates, not predictions. Chart shape predicts the size of the next move more reliably than the direction. Not financial advice.
Ascending Wedge base rate
Across 34,069 detected ascending wedge patterns in the database (all symbols, ~10 years). The honest test of the textbook read.
| Horizon | Avg return |
|---|---|
| 1-day | +0.05% |
| 3-day | +0.07% |
| 5-day | +0.01% |
| 10-day | +0.18% |
Forward returns are measured from the detected pattern bar. Average confidence of detected ascending wedges: 0.62.
How a ascending wedge is detected
Also called a rising wedge. The detector fits regression lines through swing highs and swing lows over 180+ bars and requires the lower line to rise faster than a nearly-flat upper line (converging), with both lines fitting reasonably (R-squared >= 0.5). Textbook reads it as bearish; the base rate below shows what actually happened.
Ascending Wedges detected on NVDA
7 ascending wedges detected on NVDA. Median 5-day return on those: -2.71% · win rate 43%. Small ticker-level sample — read alongside the large-n base rate above.
| Date | Conf | 1d | 5d | 10d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-25 | 0.59 | +1.37% | +1.00% | +3.35% |
| 2025-03-04 | 0.60 | +1.13% | -6.23% | -0.48% |
| 2025-01-28 | 0.66 | -4.10% | -8.02% | +2.95% |
| 2024-09-11 | 0.65 | +1.91% | -3.03% | +5.65% |
| 2024-08-08 | 0.61 | -0.21% | +17.04% | +17.88% |
| 2024-08-06 | 0.58 | -5.12% | +11.41% | +22.06% |
| 2024-06-25 | 0.61 | +0.25% | -2.71% | +7.00% |
NVDA current shape cohort
Separate from the pattern base rate above: this is the empirical forward-return distribution of 273 historical analogs of NVDA's recent chart shape as of 2026-05-20 (timeframe 1d). It is shape-based, not conditioned on the ascending wedge — included as ticker context.
What separated the NVDA cohort (5d)
NVDA cohort outcome modes
300 analogs split by what they actually did over the next 5 days. A distribution, not a prediction.
Outcome modes
Run the live cohort against NVDA's freshest bar — full distribution chart, per-analog feature attribution, and the trade simulator.
Open NVDA in Chart Library →Frequently asked
- What happens after a ascending wedge on NVDA?
- Across 34,069 historical ascending wedge patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was +0.01% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 47.8%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for NVDA specifically.
- Is a ascending wedge bullish or bearish?
- The textbook read for a ascending wedge is bearish-leaning, but the honest historical base rate is roughly flat on average: avg 5-day return +0.01%, win rate 47.8%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.
- What is NVDA's current cohort showing?
- As of 2026-05-20, NVDA's recent chart shape has 273 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of +0.63% and a typical absolute move of about 2.23% over 5 days. Open NVDA in Chart Library for the live distribution.