What happens after a failed breakout on AMD?

Across 493 historical failed breakout patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was +1.54% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 43.4%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for AMD specifically.

Is a failed breakout bullish or bearish?

The textbook read for a failed breakout is mixed, but the honest historical base rate is positive on average: avg 5-day return +1.54%, win rate 43.4%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.

What is AMD's current cohort showing?

As of 2026-05-20, AMD's recent chart shape has 279 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of -1.07% and a typical absolute move of about 4.61% over 5 days. Open AMD in Chart Library for the live distribution.

AMD · Failed Breakout · base rate as of 2026-05-20

AMD Failed Breakout: what happens next

Price breaks above a range high, then reverses back inside within a short window — a bull trap.

The honest historical base rate for the failed breakout pattern, plus AMD's current shape cohort. These are empirical base rates, not predictions. Chart shape predicts the size of the next move more reliably than the direction. Not financial advice.

Failed Breakout base rate

Across 493 detected failed breakout patterns in the database (all symbols, ~10 years). The honest test of the textbook read.

Sample

493

instances

Avg 5d

+1.54%

positive on average

5d win rate

43.4%

closed higher

Textbook read

mixed

vs. base rate

Horizon	Avg return
1-day	+0.19%
3-day	+0.78%
5-day	+1.54%
10-day	+0.54%

Forward returns are measured from the detected pattern bar. Average confidence of detected failed breakouts: 0.85.

How a failed breakout is detected

Same setup as a breakout, but the detector requires the reversal: price closes back below the range high within 20 bars, retracing at least 50% of the breakout move. Confidence is higher when the failure is fast and deep. Traders watch this as a short-side or stop-out signal.

AMD current shape cohort

Separate from the pattern base rate above: this is the empirical forward-return distribution of 279 historical analogs of AMD's recent chart shape as of 2026-05-20 (timeframe 1d). It is shape-based, not conditioned on the failed breakout — included as ticker context.

Analogs

279

5d median

-1.07%

hit 42%

5d IQR

[-5.59%, +3.71%]

middle 50%

Expected move

±4.61%

5d, normal

10d median

-1.76%

10d IQR

[-9.26%, +3.68%]

10d hit-rate

43%

What separated the AMD cohort (5d)

vix(negative)

importance 1.78

momentum_20d(positive)

importance 1.28

pct_off_ath(negative)

importance 1.15

vix_term_structure(negative)

importance 1.07

cross_sectional_momentum_rank(negative)

importance 1.06

AMD cohort outcome modes

300 analogs split by what they actually did over the next 5 days. A distribution, not a prediction.

Outcome modes

300 analogs · 4 clusters · 5-day return

Sharp choppy uptrend

middle 50%: +5.3% to +18.5%

41 setups

+12.6%

91% win

Choppy sideways

middle 50%: -0.8% to +4.7%

137 setups

+1.5%

65% win

Choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -7.4% to -3.4%

86 setups

-5.2%

0% win

Sharp choppy downtrend

middle 50%: -19.6% to -12.9%

23 setups

-18.4%

0% win

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Frequently asked

What happens after a failed breakout on AMD?: Across 493 historical failed breakout patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was +1.54% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 43.4%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for AMD specifically.
Is a failed breakout bullish or bearish?: The textbook read for a failed breakout is mixed, but the honest historical base rate is positive on average: avg 5-day return +1.54%, win rate 43.4%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.
What is AMD's current cohort showing?: As of 2026-05-20, AMD's recent chart shape has 279 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of -1.07% and a typical absolute move of about 4.61% over 5 days. Open AMD in Chart Library for the live distribution.

Other AMD patterns

Failed Breakout on other tickers

AMD pattern overview →All patterns →How cohorts work →

Pattern base rates from Chart Library's detected-pattern library; AMD cohort from the cohort_analyze API (built 2026-05-21T13:03:13.369875+00:00; 654ms retrieval at build time). Refreshed periodically. Historical base rates only — past performance does not guarantee future results. Not financial advice. Full disclaimer.