AAPL Failed Breakout: what happens next
Price breaks above a range high, then reverses back inside within a short window — a bull trap.
The honest historical base rate for the failed breakout pattern, plus AAPL's current shape cohort. These are empirical base rates, not predictions. Chart shape predicts the size of the next move more reliably than the direction. Not financial advice.
Failed Breakout base rate
Across 493 detected failed breakout patterns in the database (all symbols, ~10 years). The honest test of the textbook read.
| Horizon | Avg return |
|---|---|
| 1-day | +0.19% |
| 3-day | +0.78% |
| 5-day | +1.54% |
| 10-day | +0.54% |
Forward returns are measured from the detected pattern bar. Average confidence of detected failed breakouts: 0.85.
How a failed breakout is detected
Same setup as a breakout, but the detector requires the reversal: price closes back below the range high within 20 bars, retracing at least 50% of the breakout move. Confidence is higher when the failure is fast and deep. Traders watch this as a short-side or stop-out signal.
AAPL current shape cohort
Separate from the pattern base rate above: this is the empirical forward-return distribution of 269 historical analogs of AAPL's recent chart shape as of 2026-05-20 (timeframe 1d). It is shape-based, not conditioned on the failed breakout — included as ticker context.
What separated the AAPL cohort (5d)
AAPL cohort outcome modes
300 analogs split by what they actually did over the next 5 days. A distribution, not a prediction.
Outcome modes
Run the live cohort against AAPL's freshest bar — full distribution chart, per-analog feature attribution, and the trade simulator.
Open AAPL in Chart Library →Frequently asked
- What happens after a failed breakout on AAPL?
- Across 493 historical failed breakout patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was +1.54% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 43.4%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for AAPL specifically.
- Is a failed breakout bullish or bearish?
- The textbook read for a failed breakout is mixed, but the honest historical base rate is positive on average: avg 5-day return +1.54%, win rate 43.4%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.
- What is AAPL's current cohort showing?
- As of 2026-05-20, AAPL's recent chart shape has 269 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of +0.46% and a typical absolute move of about 1.88% over 5 days. Open AAPL in Chart Library for the live distribution.