AAPL Bull Flag: what happens next
A sharp impulse up (the pole) followed by an orderly, slightly-down consolidation channel (the flag).
The honest historical base rate for the bull flag pattern, plus AAPL's current shape cohort. These are empirical base rates, not predictions. Chart shape predicts the size of the next move more reliably than the direction. Not financial advice.
Bull Flag base rate
Across 21,133 detected bull flag patterns in the database (all symbols, ~10 years). The honest test of the textbook read.
| Horizon | Avg return |
|---|---|
| 1-day | -0.34% |
| 3-day | -0.97% |
| 5-day | -1.29% |
| 10-day | -2.09% |
Forward returns are measured from the detected pattern bar. Average confidence of detected bull flags: 0.68.
How a bull flag is detected
The detector requires a pole of at least 6% over 25 bars or fewer, then a flag of 20-60 bars that retraces less than 25% of the pole, slopes gently down, and fits a clean line (R-squared >= 0.6) with declining volume. The classic textbook read is continuation higher — the base rate below is the honest test of that.
AAPL current shape cohort
Separate from the pattern base rate above: this is the empirical forward-return distribution of 269 historical analogs of AAPL's recent chart shape as of 2026-05-20 (timeframe 1d). It is shape-based, not conditioned on the bull flag — included as ticker context.
What separated the AAPL cohort (5d)
AAPL cohort outcome modes
300 analogs split by what they actually did over the next 5 days. A distribution, not a prediction.
Outcome modes
Run the live cohort against AAPL's freshest bar — full distribution chart, per-analog feature attribution, and the trade simulator.
Open AAPL in Chart Library →Frequently asked
- What happens after a bull flag on AAPL?
- Across 21,133 historical bull flag patterns in Chart Library's database, the average 5-day forward return was -1.29% and the 5-day win rate (share that closed higher) was 39.5%. This is a historical base rate across all detected instances, not a prediction for AAPL specifically.
- Is a bull flag bullish or bearish?
- The textbook read for a bull flag is mixed, but the honest historical base rate is negative on average: avg 5-day return -1.29%, win rate 39.5%. Chart patterns predict the SIZE of the next move more reliably than the direction.
- What is AAPL's current cohort showing?
- As of 2026-05-20, AAPL's recent chart shape has 269 historical analogs (a shape cohort, not pattern-specific). Those analogs had a 5-day median return of +0.46% and a typical absolute move of about 1.88% over 5 days. Open AAPL in Chart Library for the live distribution.