XOM Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-15: Consensus 0.34, Bullish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on XOM anchored at 2026-05-15 returned 280 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.34. The 5-day forward median is +1.01% with IQR [-1.87%, +3.53%] and hit-rate 60%. The 10-day median is +1.92%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.79%, +9.67%].
- n=280, 5d median +1.01%, IQR [-1.87%, +3.53%]
- Hit-rate: 60%
- Cohort consensus: 0.34
- Top 5d feature: credit_spread_state=tight (positive direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is credit_spread_state=tight with positive direction (importance 1.41). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on XOM today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.34 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-4.79%, +9.67%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.
Search XOM on chartlibrary.io for the live cohort, distribution chart, and feature attribution.
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