XOM Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-08: Consensus 0.60, Bullish Bias

Today's Cohort

The live cohort_analyze pull on XOM anchored at 2026-05-08 returned 272 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.60. The 5-day forward median is +0.53% with IQR [-1.80%, +2.13%] and hit-rate 56%. The 10-day median is +0.37%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.41%, +4.33%].

• n=272, 5d median +0.53%, IQR [-1.80%, +2.13%]
• Hit-rate: 56%
• Cohort consensus: 0.60
• Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLI (negative direction)

Dominant Feature

The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLI with negative direction (importance 1.70). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on XOM today — independent of any specific catalyst.

How To Read The Consensus

Consensus 0.60 is in the high band — analogs agree on direction. This is an environment where the IQR is tradeable: stops at the 10th percentile (-4.41%), targets at the 75th percentile (+2.13%). Position sizing scales with the consensus.