MSFT Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-18: Consensus 0.28, Bearish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on MSFT anchored at 2026-05-18 returned 254 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.28. The 5-day forward median is -1.09% with IQR [-5.09%, +2.93%] and hit-rate 43%. The 10-day median is -2.51%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-8.74%, +6.87%].
- n=254, 5d median -1.09%, IQR [-5.09%, +2.93%]
- Hit-rate: 43%
- Cohort consensus: 0.28
- Top 5d feature: yield_curve_state=flat (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is yield_curve_state=flat with negative direction (importance 1.01). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on MSFT today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.28 is low — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, a macro catalyst, or simply a price move that strengthens the consensus).
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