GME Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-11: Consensus 0.24, Bearish Bias

Today's Cohort

The live cohort_analyze pull on GME anchored at 2026-05-11 returned 243 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.24. The 5-day forward median is -0.96% with IQR [-4.63%, +2.88%] and hit-rate 41%. The 10-day median is -1.77%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-11.57%, +7.12%].

• n=243, 5d median -0.96%, IQR [-4.63%, +2.88%]
• Hit-rate: 41%
• Cohort consensus: 0.24
• Top 5d feature: credit_spread_state=normal (negative direction)

Dominant Feature

The dominant 5-day feature is credit_spread_state=normal with negative direction (importance 1.18). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on GME today — independent of any specific catalyst.

How To Read The Consensus

Consensus 0.24 is low — historical analogs disagree on direction. The IQR is wide. Recommendation: wait for resolution (an earnings print, a macro catalyst, or simply a price move that strengthens the consensus).