ASML Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-27: Consensus 0.39, Bullish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on ASML anchored at 2026-05-27 returned 253 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.39. The 5-day forward median is +2.11% with IQR [-1.13%, +5.15%] and hit-rate 67%. The 10-day median is +3.69%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-5.24%, +8.38%].
- n=253, 5d median +2.11%, IQR [-1.13%, +5.15%]
- Hit-rate: 67%
- Cohort consensus: 0.39
- Top 5d feature: vol_regime=low (positive direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is vol_regime=low with positive direction (importance 1.07). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on ASML today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.39 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-5.24%, +8.38%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.
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