ASML Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-22: Consensus 0.54, Bullish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on ASML anchored at 2026-05-22 returned 243 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.54. The 5-day forward median is +2.01% with IQR [-0.84%, +4.79%] and hit-rate 69%. The 10-day median is +3.54%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.06%, +7.82%].
- n=243, 5d median +2.01%, IQR [-0.84%, +4.79%]
- Hit-rate: 69%
- Cohort consensus: 0.54
- Top 5d feature: sector_rs_60d (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_rs_60d with negative direction (importance 1.35). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on ASML today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.54 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-4.06%, +7.82%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.
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