ASML Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-20: Consensus 0.51, Bullish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on ASML anchored at 2026-05-20 returned 258 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.51. The 5-day forward median is +1.14% with IQR [-1.28%, +3.96%] and hit-rate 62%. The 10-day median is +1.85%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.45%, +7.03%].
- n=258, 5d median +1.14%, IQR [-1.28%, +3.96%]
- Hit-rate: 62%
- Cohort consensus: 0.51
- Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLI (positive direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLI with positive direction (importance 1.09). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on ASML today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.51 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-4.45%, +7.03%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.
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