ASML Cohort Snapshot 2026-05-15: Consensus 0.49, Bullish Bias
Today's Cohort
The live cohort_analyze pull on ASML anchored at 2026-05-15 returned 258 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.49. The 5-day forward median is +0.87% with IQR [-1.40%, +4.10%] and hit-rate 58%. The 10-day median is +1.38%. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-4.68%, +7.65%].
- n=258, 5d median +0.87%, IQR [-1.40%, +4.10%]
- Hit-rate: 58%
- Cohort consensus: 0.49
- Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLV (negative direction)
Dominant Feature
The dominant 5-day feature is sector_etf=XLV with negative direction (importance 2.37). Analogs where this feature was on-side shifted forward returns in the same direction. For traders, this is the underlying macro/regime read on ASML today — independent of any specific catalyst.
How To Read The Consensus
Consensus 0.49 is moderate — analogs partially agree but lack strong directional concentration. Modest sizing, conformal band [-4.68%, +7.65%] is your defined-risk envelope. Don't overweight a coin-flip cohort.
Search ASML on chartlibrary.io for the live cohort, distribution chart, and feature attribution.
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