PLTR Post-Earnings Gaps: Hold or Fade Across the Last 8 Quarters

Gap Behavior on PLTR Specifically

PLTR has gapped on 11 of its last 12 earnings reports, and 7 of those gaps were larger than 10%. That gap-rate is unusually high even for software earnings — most large-caps gap 8-9% on average around earnings, with the bulk of moves resolving in the first hour. PLTR's gaps tend to be larger AND tend to persist further into the session, which is what you'd expect from a name with elevated retail interest.

Hold vs Fade Across The Gap Set

Of the 11 PLTR earnings gaps, 7 held into the close on day 0 (didn't fade more than 30% of the gap). 4 of those 7 extended further over days +1 to +5, suggesting the daily-bar analog set is the right window for cohort retrieval — not the intraday tape, which is too noisy on PLTR earnings days.

The 4 gaps that DID fade share a feature: all 4 were associated with a sequential revenue deceleration, even when the headline print beat consensus. The cohort retrieval picks this up — analogs that match the post-fade chart shape cluster around prior decel-quarter setups, which historically take 3-5 sessions to fully digest.

• Gap-hold rate: 7/11 (64%) on day 0; 6/11 (55%) on day +5
• Fade trigger feature: sequential revenue deceleration (4/4 fades)
• Median gap-day-to-close move: +1.2% (modest extension on average)

How To Read Monday's Gap

If Monday produces a gap, the most useful retrieval input isn't the gap size — it's the post-gap chart shape by 11am ET. PLTR's pattern matcher works best when the morning's tape has resolved into a clean directional read; pre-11am the price action is dominated by retail flow and the analog cluster is messy.

The 80% calibrated band on the resulting cohort tightens significantly between the open and the lunch hour. Agent systems retrieving against PLTR's earnings-day shape benefit from a 90-minute delay before computing the cohort.