JD Earnings Recap: Central Tendency Held, IQR Captured The Move

The Pre-Print Cohort Read

Heading into the print, the live cohort_analyze pull on JD returned n=215 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.00. The 5-day forward median was +0.37% with IQR [-4.98%, +5.37%] and hit-rate 53%. The 10-day median was -0.75% with IQR [-9.15%, +6.40%]. The dominant 5-day feature was hy_oas (positive direction, importance 1.35).

What Actually Printed

Print-day close: $32.86, prior close $33.77. Day-over-day change: -2.69% (-0.91). Intraday range: $32.84 – $33.71.

Cohort vs. Reality — The Verdict

The -2.69% reaction is sitting inside the cohort's IQR (-4.98% to +5.37%). The cohort's central tendency held — neither the bull nor bear feature bucket fired hard enough to push the reaction into the tails.

• n=215, 5d median +0.37%, IQR [-4.98%, +5.37%]
• Conformal bucket boundaries: p10 -9.87% / p90 +12.68%
• Top 5d feature: hy_oas (positive direction, importance 1.35)
• Actual reaction: -2.69%; verdict: central tendency hold

The Calibration Lesson

For JD, the calibration verdict is: central tendency hold. The cohort's structured features (hy_oas dominant) provided the directional read; the realized magnitude lands relative to that read at the bucket described above. Agent systems should retrieve the post-print cohort 24-48 hours after the close — the chart shape will have stabilized, the feature attribution sharpens, and the forward 5-10 day continuation distribution becomes actionable.