HD Pre-Earnings Drift: A Tight Cohort Leaning Negative

Home Depot Is Coiling — And The Cohort Is Tight

Home Depot's pre-Q1 chart shape often produces some of the tightest cohorts in our database. The cohort_analyze pull on 2026-05-06 retrieved 279 historical analogs with a tightness score of 0.67 — among the highest in retail. That tightness lets the 5-day forward distribution narrow to actionable bands.

The 5-day median is -0.99% with IQR [-3.2%, +1.5%] and hit-rate 41%. The 10-day median is -1.27%, IQR [-4.4%, +1.5%]. The skew is mildly negative — analogs where the cohort matched HD's pre-print setup tended to drift modestly lower over the 5-10 day window, not crash.

The XLP Negative-Direction Feature

The dominant 5-day feature was sector_etf=XLP with negative direction (importance 1.85). Read this carefully: analogs where Consumer Staples (XLP) had been outperforming relative-to-cohort tended to underperform on Home Depot's forward window. That's the defensive-rotation signal — when capital is hiding in staples, big-ticket discretionary spend (housing-tied repair/remodel) lags. The print itself can be neutral and the stock still drifts down because the macro flow is wrong.

• n=279, 5d median -0.99%, IQR [-3.2%, +1.5%], hit-rate 41%
• 10d median -1.27%, IQR [-4.4%, +1.5%]
• Cohort tightness 0.67 — high signal density
• Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLP (negative direction, importance 1.85)

What Matters On The Call

Home Depot's post-call cohort match weights three signals: comparable-store sales growth (US specifically), Pro vs. DIY mix trajectory, and any commentary on big-ticket transaction count vs. average ticket value. Comp-sales beats with Pro outperforming map to the cohort's upper IQR; DIY weakness with traffic declines maps to the lower IQR.

The HD setup heading into the print rewards being honest about the cohort's signal: the math says the most likely 5-day outcome is a small negative drift, not a thesis-defining move.