HD Pre-Earnings: Weak Cohort Consensus — Analogs Disagree On Direction

The Setup

Heading into HD's 2026-05-19 earnings print, the live cohort_analyze pull anchored at 2026-05-18 returned 281 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.00. The 5-day forward median is +1.20% with IQR [-3.35%, +4.19%] and hit-rate 59%. The 10-day median is +1.30% with IQR [-4.59%, +6.92%]. Conformal 80% band on the 5-day forward: [-12.80%, +10.95%].

The Dominant Cohort Feature

The dominant 5-day feature in the cohort is spy_ret_60d with negative direction (importance 1.36). When this feature is on-side in the analogs, forward returns shifted in the same direction. The print itself either confirms or breaks this signal — that's the trade decision.

• n=281, 5d median +1.20%, IQR [-3.35%, +4.19%]
• 10d median +1.30%, IQR [-4.59%, +6.92%]
• Cohort consensus 0.00 (weak)
• Top 5d feature: spy_ret_60d (negative direction, importance 1.36)

Sizing Read

Cohort consensus 0.00 reads as weak. Analogs disagree on direction — do not size pre-print, the chart shape isn't separating winners from losers. For agent systems trading HD pre-print: position-size to the cohort consensus, not your conviction. Consensus is the floor on signal density; conviction is your overlay on top.

Watch List

What to listen for on the call: any commentary on the cohort's dominant feature (spy_ret_60d), guidance trajectory for the next quarter, and any breaks from the analog set's central tendency. Recap post will land 24h after the print — search HD on chartlibrary.io for the post-print cohort which re-anchors the chart with the new bar.