DKNG Earnings Recap: Bullish Bucket Realized Inside The IQR

The Pre-Print Cohort Read

Heading into the print, the live cohort_analyze pull on DKNG returned n=286 historical analogs with a tightness score of 0.22. The 5-day forward median was -0.11% with IQR [-4.66%, +4.99%] and hit-rate 49%. The 10-day median was +0.09% with IQR [-6.73%, +7.45%]. The dominant 5-day feature was sector_etf=XLK (positive direction, importance 0.79).

What Actually Printed

Print-day close: $25.22, prior close $23.92. Day-over-day change: +5.43% (+1.30). Intraday range: $24.16 – $25.27.

Cohort vs. Reality — The Verdict

The +5.43% reaction sits in the cohort's upper IQR — bullish bucket realized cleanly. The pre-print feature attribution flagged sector_etf=XLK as the dominant separator, and the print delivered against that feature.

• n=286, 5d median -0.11%, IQR [-4.66%, +4.99%]
• Conformal bucket boundaries: p10 -9.52% / p90 +9.25%
• Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLK (positive direction, importance 0.79)
• Actual reaction: +5.43%; verdict: upper IQR realization

The Calibration Lesson

For DKNG, the calibration verdict is: upper IQR realization. The cohort's structured features (sector_etf=XLK dominant) provided the directional read; the realized magnitude lands relative to that read at the bucket described above. Agent systems should retrieve the post-print cohort 24-48 hours after the close — the chart shape will have stabilized, the feature attribution sharpens, and the forward 5-10 day continuation distribution becomes actionable.