DE Earnings Recap: Central Tendency Held, IQR Captured The Move

The Pre-Print Cohort Read

Heading into the print, the live cohort_analyze pull on DE returned n=266 historical analogs with a consensus score of 0.41. The 5-day forward median was +0.37% with IQR [-3.11%, +3.51%] and hit-rate 52%. The 10-day median was -0.45% with IQR [-4.86%, +4.46%]. The dominant 5-day feature was sector_etf=XLK (positive direction, importance 1.31).

What Actually Printed

Print-day close: $574.64, prior close $580.65. Day-over-day change: -1.04% (-6.01). Intraday range: $574.00 – $587.14.

Cohort vs. Reality — The Verdict

The -1.04% reaction is sitting inside the cohort's IQR (-3.11% to +3.51%). The cohort's central tendency held — neither the bull nor bear feature bucket fired hard enough to push the reaction into the tails.

• n=266, 5d median +0.37%, IQR [-3.11%, +3.51%]
• Conformal bucket boundaries: p10 -5.39% / p90 +7.25%
• Top 5d feature: sector_etf=XLK (positive direction, importance 1.31)
• Actual reaction: -1.04%; verdict: central tendency hold

The Calibration Lesson

For DE, the calibration verdict is: central tendency hold. The cohort's structured features (sector_etf=XLK dominant) provided the directional read; the realized magnitude lands relative to that read at the bucket described above. Agent systems should retrieve the post-print cohort 24-48 hours after the close — the chart shape will have stabilized, the feature attribution sharpens, and the forward 5-10 day continuation distribution becomes actionable.