On May 22, the pattern picks went 11-for-20 directional, a 55% hit rate. The portfolio averaged +0.53% across the day. The range spanned from FLR's +4.44% to PRGO's −3.74%, a spread of 8.18 percentage points that captures both the upside surprise and the significant downside miss. FLR delivered the day's clearest win: predicted +1.43%, actual +4.44%—a 3-point outperformance that validated the setup. The hero pick, however, was PRGO, which the methodology flagged as bullish with a +0.84% target. PRGO closed −3.74%, missing the prediction by 4.58 percentage points in the opposite direction. This was the largest absolute error of the day and the worst performer in the set, despite carrying a constructive label. The 55% directional rate sits slightly above coin-flip territory but below what a profitable systematic approach typically requires after accounting for slippage and frictional costs. The PRGO miss illustrates a calibration gap: the model's confidence in a bullish setup was materially misaligned with realized volatility and price action. FLR's outperformance suggests the methodology sometimes undershoots magnitude, while PRGO's reversal indicates occasional misprediction of direction itself. With 20 picks, neither outcome is an outlier, but the error distribution—one large miss, one large beat, and a cluster of modest moves—suggests the current model may be overfitting recent pattern strength or underweighting overnight gaps and earnings-adjacent catalysts. This week's calibration story remains one of volatile outcomes masking a slender edge.

2026-05-22: $PRGO predicted +0.84%, did -3.74%