2026-05-22: $PRGO predicted +0.84%, did -3.74%

# Yesterday's Pattern Picks: May 22, 2026 On May 22, the 20-stock pattern pick set achieved directional accuracy on 11 of 20 calls—a 55% hit rate. The portfolio averaged a realized move of 0.53%, with individual outcomes ranging from a 4.44% gain in FLR to a 3.74% loss in PRGO. FLR emerged as the session's best performer, climbing 4.44% against a predicted move of 1.43%. That represents a 3-percentage-point outperformance. The worst call was PRGO, flagged as bullish with a 0.84% predicted upside, which instead fell 3.74%. The absolute error on that pick totaled 4.58 percentage points—the widest miss in the set. PRGO also served as the day's hero pick, illustrating the inverse: the most confident or highest-conviction call on paper was the largest shortfall in real execution. This pattern warrants a calibration note. When a single pick undershoots by 4.58 percentage points, it suggests either the directional bias was misjudged, the pattern triggered a false positive, or overnight/intraday conditions shifted substantially from the setup window. With 55% accuracy and a best-to-worst spread of 8.18 percentage points, the methodology captured tradeable signal on just over half the portfolio but lacked consistency in magnitude estimation. No claim is made about today's expected behavior; the data simply reflects that yesterday's hero pick missed badly, and that outcome informs how much weight to assign to single-name conviction scores going forward.