Graham McCain · Alphaforge Research · Published Sep 28, 2026 · 4:12 pm ET · Revision 1
Scored over 5 trading sessions.
AI summary
Akamai announced a seven-year, $11.6 billion agreement with Anthropic, involving about $5.5 billion in capital spending. The stock opened sharply higher the next day but closed near its low at $113.94, up 3.2% for the day on very heavy volume of 31.8 million shares.
Historical comparisons for similar trading sessions show a five-session excess return range of -6.6 / +0.7 / +8.1. The strongest other reading is that the market priced in the significant new capital spending and a warrant for 5% of the company at $111.33. The next checkpoint is the close on September 28.
Two paragraphs generated from the note. The authored note below is the record. Numbers only, no side.
1. The state
As of the 2026-09-25 close. Session 1 has closed.
Friday's close was $113.94, up 3.2% from Thursday's $110.41 close, 31.1% under the May 13 high of $165.45, and 3.4% under the close of 120 sessions ago. Volume was 9.0 times the recent norm and $3.62 billion traded. The close sat at the bottom of a 12.8% range, after a 13.4% opening gap.
2. What's new
On September 24 at 16:02 ET Akamai filed an 8-K under Items 1.01, 3.02, 5.03 and 7.01: a master services agreement with Anthropic, approximately $11.6 billion in the aggregate under the project plans, an initial seven-year term from each.
3. What that does to the state
Thursday's filing did not change a 2026 revenue number, and the 2026 capital spending number rose by about $1.7 billion.
300 similar days · 268 stocks · 243 sessions · 1h band
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|
| 1 session | -3.7 | +0.0 | +3.8 | 51% |
| 5 sessions | -6.6 | +0.7 | +8.1 | 58% |
| 10 sessions | -10.4 | +0.6 | +10.2 | 56% |
The band is the prior close's neighborhood — what followed similar states as of the cutoff.
4. Same state, or a new one
Stayed in yesterday's neighborhood
Session 1 vs the market: -3.6. Prior-state 1-session range: -3.7 / +0.0 / +3.8.
A completed Monday close outside the 1-session band, an Akamai filing that changes the 2026 revenue guide or the $5.5 billion capital figure, or a service-start date with a revenue schedule attached, would make Thursday's filing the needle.
Friday's close was $113.94. The open was $125.23, the high $128.46, the low $113.84, and the close sat at the bottom of that range, on 31.8 million shares, 9.0 times the recent norm, and $3.62 billion of stock. Thursday had closed at $110.41, before the announcement, so Friday finished up 3.2% on the day after being up 16.3% at the high. The close is 31.1% under the 52-week high of $165.45 from May 13 and 3.4% under the close of 120 sessions ago.
The filing came Thursday at 16:02 ET. Anthropic committed approximately $11.6 billion over an initial seven-year term for dedicated cloud computing capacity and managed support, expandable by up to $9 billion more. Akamai puts capital spending against the $11.6 billion at approximately $5.5 billion, raises 2026 capital spending by approximately $1.7 billion to pre-purchase memory through a Jabil consignment arrangement, and expects no impact on 2026 revenue guidance. Akamai also issued Anthropic a warrant for up to 387,051 shares of a new Series B preferred, 7,741,020 common shares as converted, about 5% of the stock, at $111.33 a common share: about 2% vests with the $11.6 billion, the rest with the expansion. A seven-year Lenovo hardware contract, terms undisclosed, was filed the same day.
The tape had moved first. On September 21 the stock rose 10.7%, from a $106.04 open to a $117.41 close, with no issuer filing that day, and the memory holds no labelled issuer news for it. Friday's round trip left the close $2.61 above the warrant strike. Monday's tape, from the exchange feed and not yet in the memory: an open of $113.29, a low of $108.87, and a last print of $108.99 before the bell, under the strike, after DA Davidson cut its target to $150 from $185 and kept Buy. Until Monday's close is in, the exam is Friday's 5-session excess band, whose middle is +0.7%.
Other reading, tape, and sources
The other reading
A $11.6 billion, seven-year commitment against roughly $4 billion of annual revenue is the largest contract in the company's history, the 2026 guide is untouched, and eight brokers raised targets Friday, so a close 11% off the high on the announcement day is the tape digesting a $5.5 billion build, not rejecting it. The other reading is the one the close took: a warrant for 5% of the company at $111.33, $1.7 billion of new 2026 spending for memory, and a customer that can terminate a project plan on a material outage, are the terms the market priced by the bell.
What would change this
A completed Monday close outside the 1-session band, an Akamai filing that changes the 2026 revenue guide or the $5.5 billion capital figure, or a service-start date with a revenue schedule attached, would make Thursday's filing the needle. Target changes alone, with the guide intact, would not.
The tape
Friday's close was $113.94, up 3.2% from Thursday's $110.41 close, 31.1% under the May 13 high of $165.45, and 3.4% under the close of 120 sessions ago. Volume was 9.0 times the recent norm and $3.62 billion traded. The close sat at the bottom of a 12.8% range, after a 13.4% opening gap. The memory files the state as a 120-day downtrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, a weak close, and some peers moving.
What was filed
On September 24 at 16:02 ET Akamai filed an 8-K under Items 1.01, 3.02, 5.03 and 7.01: a master services agreement with Anthropic, approximately $11.6 billion in the aggregate under the project plans, an initial seven-year term from each service start date, dedicated cloud computing capacity and managed support, expandable by up to $9 billion; a warrant to Anthropic for up to 387,051 Series B preferred shares, 7,741,020 common shares as converted, at $2,226.60 a preferred share, which is $111.33 a common share, 40% vesting on the first payment under project plan 3 and three 20% tranches on each additional $3.0 billion committed; a certificate of designations for the preferred; and the press release. The release puts capital spending against the commitment at approximately $5.5 billion, adds approximately $1.7 billion of 2026 capital spending for memory pre-purchases through Jabil, and anticipates no impact to 2026 revenue guidance. Friday brought target changes from eight brokers, from $135 to $225. Monday DA Davidson cut its target to $150 from $185 and kept Buy.
The numbers around the move
Thursday's filing did not change a 2026 revenue number, and the 2026 capital spending number rose by about $1.7 billion. The 5-session excess band on Friday's state is -6.6 / +0.7 / +8.1 across 300 analogs, 1.4 times the base width for this kind of session. A completed Monday close inside the 1-session band, -3.7 / +3.8 from $113.94, leaves this neighborhood in place; Monday's last print before the bell, $108.99, was 4.3% under Friday's close.
What the stock did
Friday's close is the reaction to Thursday's filing: $113.94, up 3.2% from Thursday's close, 11.3% off the day's high, on 9.0 times recent volume. Monday's session, from the exchange feed, opened at $113.29 and printed a last of $108.99, under the $111.33 warrant strike. The completed close is not in the memory yet.
The comparison
Five-session excess -6.6 / +0.7 / +8.1 across 300 analogs on the 1-hour scale, with the up-share at 58%. One session -3.7 / +0.0 / +3.8. Ten sessions -10.4 / +0.6 / +10.2. The band is 1.4 times the base width. The comparisons are state and shape, not a forecast, and they imply no side.
Sources
Friday's tape and band are the September 25 state packet, read after the September 24 session was restored to the memory on September 28; the memory had held no September 24 session for AKAM until then. The agreement, the warrant and the preferred are the September 24 8-K and exhibits 99.1 and 4.1. The September 21 session and the 52-week high are stored daily bars. Monday's open, low and last print are the IEX feed read at 16:04 ET; the completed session enters the memory with tonight's ingest. Broker target changes are from the desk's wire feed and are not sources for any number in this note.
- September 25 completed-session state packet for AKAM · Available Sep 25, 2026 · 9:00 pm ET
- Akamai 8-K, September 24, 2026: Anthropic master services agreement, warrant, Series B preferred · Available Sep 24, 2026 · 4:02 pm ET
- Akamai exhibit 99.1, September 24, 2026: $11.6 billion multi-year agreement with Anthropic · Available Sep 24, 2026 · 4:02 pm ET
- Akamai exhibit 4.1, September 24, 2026: warrant agreement dated September 18, 2026 · Available Sep 24, 2026 · 4:02 pm ET
- IEX daily bar for AKAM, September 28, 2026, via Alpaca Market Data, read at 16:04 ET · Available Sep 28, 2026 · 4:04 pm ET