Prior-session activity: relative volume 14.86x; range 7.18%; dollar volume $2,266,026,775. No labelled issuer news since the prior close.
Situations worth an hour.
Live situations, scored after the close. Not a buy list. Last needle, today's fact, the prior-state range. After the close: left or stayed. Scorecard.
Today's situations
Prior-session activity: relative volume 12.98x; range 5.95%; dollar volume $10,455,165,795. No labelled issuer news since the prior close.
Prior-session activity: relative volume 3.32x; range 5.72%; dollar volume $1,398,434,241. No labelled issuer news since the prior close.
Also today · session 2026-09-29
$KMX reported comparable used units up 13.0% and $1.16 of EPS against $0.64. Its last four print days closed down 20.1%, 4.2%, 15.1% and 9.0%.
Earlier notes
$AKAM printed $128.46 on the $11.6 billion Anthropic agreement and closed at $113.94. The warrant strikes at $111.33.
Thursday after the close: a seven-year, $11.6 billion Anthropic commitment, about $5.5 billion of capital spending against it, and a warrant to Anthropic for about 5% of the stock at $111.33. Friday opened at $125.23, printed $128.46, and closed at $113.94 on 31.8 million shares. Friday's 5-session excess band is -6.6 / +0.7 / +8.1.
$MDB opened 24% lower after its CEO left for Meta. The guide is reaffirmed and the investor day is Tuesday.
An 8-K at 08:30 ET Monday: chief executive CJ Desai resigned, effective immediately, for a senior role at Meta; Dev Ittycheria, chief executive from 2014 to 2025, is interim. The September 1 guide is reaffirmed and Tuesday's investor day stands. Monday opened at $311.75, 24.0% under Friday's $410.44 close. Friday's 5-session excess band is -11.4 / -0.8 / +9.8.
$ZS gave back 10.1% on a chief revenue officer 8-K. The September 3 guide is untouched.
Friday closed at $193.05, down 10.1% on 1.95 times recent volume, after a Thursday 16:07 ET 8-K said the chief revenue officer steps down October 1. No number in the fiscal 2027 guide changed. Five-session excess is -15.5 / -0.9 / +10.9.
$FSLR closed at a new low. July's quarter is still the number.
Thursday closed at $172.16, 46% under the June high. No new First Solar number. Five-session excess is -5.4 / +0.6 / +7.9.
$U is back at the August 6 close. The glasses release names no revenue.
Thursday closed at $41.42, 61 cents above the August 6 earnings close. Unity's glasses release names no revenue. Five-session excess is -9.7 / -0.6 / +11.8.
$IONQ's decoder claim is in. Tuesday's bar is not.
IonQ said on September 22 that one ordinary CPU decoded quantum errors in real time. The library's last IONQ session is Monday's $40.51 close. There is no Tuesday band.
$IBRX rose 9.9% on Tuesday with no new issuer release found
Tuesday closed at $9.29, up 9.9% on 2.2 times average volume, and 25% under the 52-week high. No September 22 or 23 issuer release was found to explain the move.
$APP is still the August 6 neighborhood, not today's lawyer alert
Tuesday closed at $328.73, 55.9% under the 52-week high. A sell-side plateau comment and a plaintiff-firm notice are captions. They are not an AppLovin 8-K.
$NVO: the DKK150bn ambition still has to become profitable growth
Novo adds pipeline evidence, but its 2035 ambition is not near-term guidance. Friday's 1h-state analogs: five-session excess p10 -3.0 / median +0.3 / p90 +4.4 percentage points.
$XENE −23% premarket: NDA filed, psychiatry pause
Xenon filed an NDA for azetukalner in focal seizures and paused new psychiatry enrollment after neuropsychiatric AEs. Memory, 300 analogs: 5-session excess p10 -7.2 / median -0.5 / p90 +7.9.
$LEN: a double miss after the Fed hike, and a smaller year
Lennar reported Q3 EPS of $1.19 against about $1.29, and $8.05 billion of sales against $8.31 billion. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 15 close is -3.0 to +4.8 points of excess return, up 53% of the time.
$LEN: a double miss after the Fed hike, and a smaller year
Lennar reported Q3 EPS of $1.19 against about $1.29, and $8.05 billion of sales against $8.31 billion. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 15 close is -3.0 to +4.8 points of excess return, up 53% of the time.
$VICR +11% after hours: unnamed OEM, no dollars, no 8-K
Vicor granted a non-exclusive VPD license to an unnamed AI OEM; no dollars and no 8-K. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 16 close is -6.1 to +6.2 points of excess, up 47% of the time.
$GNRC +33% after hours: Amazon, $2.4B of generators
Generac named Amazon on a long-term generator deal; expected deliveries $2.4 billion in 2027 and 2028. The memory's 5-session band for states like the September 15 close is -5.1 to +9.2 points of excess, up 55% of the time.
$CRWV: $3.0B converts and 35 million ATM shares. Coupon not priced
CoreWeave filed $3.0 billion of converts due 2033 and an ATM for 35 million Class A shares. Short-dated contracts are about $40 million per megawatt. Chart Library has a September 16 identity but no analog band for this clock.
$SNAP: $2,195 glasses. The regular session still closed down
Snap launched SPECS at $2,195, with a $2,395 connected case, and named Salesforce, AWS and NVIDIA. The regular session still closed $5.72, -1.9%. Memory, 300 analogs: 5-session excess p10 -8.1 / median 0.0 / p90 +8.7, up 50%.
$APLD +5% premarket on a $50 initiation. The 1.4 GW was in July
Wells Fargo initiated Applied Digital at Overweight with a $50 target. The 1.4 GW and $36B of leases were already in the July 27 release. Memory, 300 analogs: 5-session excess p10 -8.5 / median -0.5 / p90 +9.0, up 46%.
$APP is 56% off the high. August 6 was the needle
Wednesday $326.56, 56% below the $745.61 high. The last completed shock was August 6: −20% after the August 5 print. Memory, 300 analogs: 5-session excess p10 -4.4 / median +0.6 / p90 +5.8, up 57%.
J.B. Hunt: A Conference Remark Erases a Quarter of Beats in One Pre-Market Print
J.B. Hunt is indicated down about 10% pre-market after its CFO said third-quarter earnings may fall 5-10% from the second quarter, breaking two years of sequential Q3 gains. The memory's 5-session band for states like Tuesday's close is -5.7 to +4.4 points of excess return. Does an intra-quarter remark reset the intermodal earnings path, or only its timing?
Intel: The Most-Watched Stock of the Morning Moved 3% on a Report the Other Side Calls Unconfirmed
Intel led both trending lists on a Reuters report that SK Hynix is in talks to make memory chips at its Ohio site, which SK Hynix calls unconfirmed. Pre-market +3.3%. The memory's 5-session band for states like Tuesday's close is -10.1 to +7.8 points, up 45% of the time. What would a memory tenant be worth to a $500 billion company that just raised $23 billion?
Axon: A Zero-Coupon Convert Cost the Stock Four Times What It Raised
Axon fell 9.8% on Tuesday, about $3.9 billion of value, on a $1.0 billion convertible that pays no interest, converts 47.5% above the market and is capped at $1,050. The memory's 5-session band for states like Tuesday's close is -7.1 to +11.9 points, up 56%. Was the drop hedging flow around a cheap financing, or a read that a 35% grower now needs outside capital?
Wingstop: A 52-Week Low on Somebody Else's Traffic Data
Wingstop fell 12.1% on Tuesday to a 52-week low after Placer.ai reported August dining traffic down 2.4% nationwide, six weeks after the company cut its own same-store-sales guidance to a 4-6% decline. The memory's 5-session band for states like Tuesday's close is -9.1 to +11.3 points, up 57%. What is left to price after a guidance cut, a target cut and third-party traffic data?
Tempus AI: A Conference Transcript, a 'Frenzy of Demand', and a Deal Whose Economics Just Flipped
Tempus rose 10.7% on Tuesday after its CEO described a frenzy of demand and explained why it is buying Personalis now that reimbursement has turned the MRD assay's economics in the seller's favor. The memory's 5-session band for states like Tuesday's close is -9.6 to +9.3 points, up 51%. Is the move a revenue signal or a tone shift on a stock that has not yet earned a full year of profit?
Delixy: A $7 Million Company, a Non-Binding Letter, and a Ten-Fold Intraday Range
Delixy, a Singapore oil-products trader worth about $7 million at Tuesday's close, traded 200 million shares and touched $4.45 before settling near $1.85 on a non-binding letter of intent for up to 48% of a Kazakhstan oil field, with no price, no financing and no counterparty accounts. Chart Library has no memory for this name. The question is what, if anything, was bought.
Enova: The Bank Charter Is Gone, the Guidance Is Not, and the Stock Reprices
Enova withdrew its OCC and Federal Reserve applications for the Grasshopper Bank acquisition while reaffirming 2026 guidance and promising faster buybacks. We test whether the overnight repricing measures lost funding optionality or an expectations reset.
Vera: Two-Year Kidney Data Settle the Science; the Launch Curve Now Sets the Price
TRUTAKNA's ORIGIN 3 final analysis stabilized eGFR and cut progression events 76%, with a full-approval sBLA planned for Q4 2026. With the science largely de-risked, the equity question becomes converting 350 start forms into paid, persistent patients against $2.5-2.7 billion of capitalization, rival two-year data and a 27% short interest.
Forgent: A $3.0 Billion Backlog, a 37% Sponsor Stake, and the Conversion Test
Forgent beat its May guidance and guided fiscal 2027 revenue 76% higher after the stock fell 28% in 20 sessions. Our case rests on whether the backlog converts at guided margins on a back-half-weighted schedule, who funds the working-capital build, and the supply still held by the sponsor after four offerings.
Armata: A Clinical Milestone Still Needs a Funding Path
AP-SA02 gained Breakthrough Therapy designation. That improves the development conversation, but trial execution, financing claims and thin normal liquidity remain central to the common-share research case.
Credo: Strong AI Growth Meets a More Demanding Stock Market
Credo is growing rapidly and generating cash. The research question is whether its price still requires unusually durable growth, margins and customer spending after a sharp drawdown.
LightPath: Defense Orders Are Growing. Cash Conversion Must Follow.
LightPath connects defense demand with an infrared-materials constraint. Record backlog and a stronger balance sheet support the business case, but acquisitions, share issuance and weak cash conversion complicate the stock story.
Elmet: Government Funding, Ownership Costs and a Multiyear Expansion
Updated after our morning correction: Elmet discloses 5.5% PIK preferred equity, penny warrants and a multiyear capacity plan. We separate committed funding and minimum purchases from future revenue, dilution and common-share value.
Gorilla Technology: What Survives the Journey from Contract to Shareholder?
GRRR offers exposure to a large AI infrastructure buildout through a small listed company. Our view is constructive on the opportunity, cautious on the economics: commissioning, cash collection and convertible dilution matter more than adding up project headlines.
Nebius: The Demand Is Real. What Reaches Each Share?
Nebius is falling premarket amid the AI pacing debate. Our question is whether demand for running AI can support the buildout and create cash per share. We are constructive on demand, cautious on valuation, and unconvinced that a falling price alone resolves the case.
Bloom Energy: the power opportunity is real. What is already expected?
Bloom and Powell share a power-buildout theme, but their stocks describe different expectations. We are constructive on Bloom's operating progress and cautious about the standard its next update must meet.
Vertiv: Power Constraints, Project Timing, and the AI Spending Test
Vertiv is moving upstream into data-center power architecture while its stock remains below its level 20 sessions ago. Our neutral five-session view tests whether project demand proves more resilient than the broad AI headline suggests.
Oracle: Strong Growth, a Failed Rally, and Competing Weekend Signals
Oracle exceeded reported expectations, yet its earnings rally failed on heavy participation. Our five-session view is cautious, tempered by a weekend reversal of a planned insider sale and the absence of an observed reaction to AI pacing concerns.
Weekly views
The Week Ahead: AI Pacing, Real Projects, and the Expectations Between Them
AI leaders want slower capability growth, while investors disagree about the consequences. Our September 14-18 view separates the policy signal from customer spending, earnings durability and the price response still to come.