ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$NBIS

Nebius Group N.V. · Nasdaq · SIC 7370 · CIK 1513845 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Nebius operates an AI cloud that supplies GPU computing and related software to enterprises and AI developers. Revenue grows as funded hardware and data-center capacity become available and customers use or commit to that capacity. Large customer prepayments, debt and equity finance expansion; annualized revenue run rate describes the latest month, while reported revenue measures services earned during the period.

Three drivers

Deployed compute and revenue earned during each quarter
Group cash generation before customer prepayments
Hardware spending, funding terms and per-share ownership

Thesis

Our view

Strong AI demand is translating into revenue, but the investment question includes the cost and ownership of the infrastructure that produces it. Q2 revenue was $582.3M versus a $3.0B exit ARR. H1 CFO of $4.504B included $4.395B of net deferred-revenue funding and was below $8.130B cash capex. August financing adds resources and obligations together. The model therefore separates earned revenue, adjusted EBITDA, prepayment-assisted cash flow and capital spending instead of equating ARR or financing proceeds with economic profit.

What changes it

Watch revenue recognized versus ARR, cash generation excluding net deferred-revenue additions, cash capex and funding per unit of deployed capacity. Slower activation, shorter customer commitments or more dilution weaken the case. Improving cash conversion before prepayments and better funding efficiency strengthen it.

Scenario ranges

Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.

Model · 2 fiscal quarters available

Fiscal quarter	2026Q1 2026-03-31	2026Q2 2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)	399.0†¹	582.3²
Gross profit ($M)	—	—
Operating income ($M)	-128.0†³	-175.9⁴
Net income ($M)	621.2†⁵	-190.4⁶
EPS, diluted ($)	—	-0.68⁷
Diluted shares (M)	—	280.4⁸
Cash ($M)	9,298.2⁹	8,042.1¹⁰
Long-term debt ($M)	—	8,499.0¹¹
Cash from operations ($M)	2,258.0†¹²	2,246.1¹³
Capex ($M)	2,472.9†¹⁴	5,657.4¹⁵
Free cash flow ($M)	-214.9†¹⁶	-3,411.3†¹⁷

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

Period	Revenue ($M)	EPS ($)	As of	Basis
2026Q3	851.1	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4	1,413.7	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1	1,976.2	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2	2,369.9	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.

AI cloud activation, customer prepayments and capital intensity

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Forecast AI revenue from the average of beginning and ending quarterly ARR, divided by four and adjusted for uneven activation within the quarter. ARR is the last month annualized, not annual revenue. Add other-business revenue and apply a group adjusted-EBITDA margin. Subtract an explicit cash bridge, then add net deferred-revenue funding to estimate CFO; subtract cash PP&E and intangibles. Reported H1 and forecast H2 reconcile to FY2026; four modeled quarters form FY2027.

Reported anchors and guidance

Measure	Period	Value	Basis
June AI cloud annualized revenue run rate	2026Q2	3,000.00	reported. Last month of AI cloud revenue times 12; not Q2 revenue times four. Source · 2026-08-12
FY2026 company revenue range midpoint	FY2026	3,200.00	derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Year-end AI cloud ARR range midpoint	2026 year-end	8,000.00	derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
H1 GAAP operating cash flow	H1 2026	4,504.10	reported. Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Source · 2026-08-12
H1 cash-flow increase in deferred revenue	H1 2026	4,395.00	reported. Reported cash-flow change in deferred revenue, not gross prepayments or the balance-sheet delta. Source · 2026-08-12
H1 CFO excluding deferred-revenue increase	H1 2026	109.10	derived. Remove the disclosed net deferred-revenue cash-flow contribution, without claiming the remaining amount is normalized recurring profit.
H1 operating cash flow less capex	H1 2026	-3,626.20	derived. Cash PP&E and intangibles; acquisitions excluded.
June unrestricted cash	2026Q2	8,042.10	reported. Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Source · 2026-08-12
June restricted cash	2026Q2	1,056.00	reported. Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Source · 2026-08-12
August convertible gross proceeds	August financing	5,750.00	derived. Before fees; do not add gross proceeds to June cash as a current-cash estimate.
Incremental annual coupon after exchange	Annual	100.75	derived. New coupons less retired-note coupons; excludes issuance fees and further borrowings.

Downside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow estimate ($M)	Operating cash flow less capex ($M)	Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Group adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Net deferred-revenue funding ($M)	CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2026Q3	750.35	-7,347.11	8,097.46	751.15	225.34	900.00	-149.66
2026Q4	1,036.91	-7,735.34	8,772.24	1,123.03	336.91	1,100.00	-63.09
2027Q1	628.37	-6,371.63	7,000.00	1,494.90	478.37	600.00	28.37
2027Q2	671.37	-6,328.63	7,000.00	1,707.40	546.37	600.00	71.37
FY2026	6,291.35	-18,708.65	25,000.00	2,855.47	927.95	6,395.00	-103.65
FY2027	2,503.47	-25,496.53	28,000.00	7,042.10	2,253.47	2,200.00	303.47

Base scenario

Period	Operating cash flow estimate ($M)	Operating cash flow less capex ($M)	Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Group adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Net deferred-revenue funding ($M)	CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2026Q3	1,515.46	-5,382.00	6,897.46	851.15	340.46	1,500.00	15.46
2026Q4	2,015.46	-5,456.78	7,472.24	1,413.65	565.46	1,800.00	215.46
2027Q1	1,929.98	-4,570.02	6,500.00	1,976.15	829.98	1,500.00	429.98
2027Q2	2,070.36	-4,429.64	6,500.00	2,369.90	995.36	1,500.00	570.36
FY2026	8,035.02	-14,464.98	22,500.00	3,246.10	1,271.62	7,695.00	340.02
FY2027	7,833.06	-18,166.94	26,000.00	10,435.85	4,383.06	5,200.00	2,633.06

Upside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow estimate ($M)	Operating cash flow less capex ($M)	Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Group adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Net deferred-revenue funding ($M)	CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2026Q3	2,130.83	-3,566.63	5,697.46	957.40	430.83	2,000.00	130.83
2026Q4	2,826.45	-3,345.79	6,172.24	1,669.90	751.46	2,400.00	426.46
2027Q1	2,968.55	-3,031.45	6,000.00	2,382.40	1,143.55	2,200.00	768.55
2027Q2	3,228.55	-2,771.45	6,000.00	2,976.15	1,428.55	2,200.00	1,028.55
FY2026	9,461.39	-10,538.62	20,000.00	3,608.60	1,547.99	8,795.00	666.39
FY2027	12,491.21	-11,508.79	24,000.00	13,210.85	6,341.21	7,800.00	4,691.21

All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model

Input / calculation	Period / case	Value / unit	Evidence or assumption
One quarter of a year quarter	Model / shared	25.0% ratio	assumption: Arithmetic time conversion.
Average divisor two	Model / shared	200.0% ratio	assumption: Arithmetic constant.
H1 group revenue h1_revenue	H1 2026 / shared	981.30 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
H1 group adjusted EBITDA h1_adjusted_ebitda	H1 2026 / shared	365.70 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
H1 GAAP operating cash flow h1_cfo	H1 2026 / shared	4,504.10 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
H1 cash PP&E and intangibles h1_capex	H1 2026 / shared	8,130.30 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
H1 cash-flow increase in deferred revenue h1_customer_funding	H1 2026 / shared	4,395.00 USD_millions	reported: Reported cash-flow change in deferred revenue, not gross prepayments or the balance-sheet delta. Primary source · 2026-08-12
June unrestricted cash h1_cash	2026Q2 / shared	8,042.10 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
June restricted cash h1_restricted_cash	2026Q2 / shared	1,056.00 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
Q2 other-business revenue h1_q2_other	2026Q2 / shared	7.40 USD_millions	reported: Reported amount in millions; adjusted EBITDA is non-GAAP. Primary source · 2026-08-12
H1 CFO excluding deferred-revenue increase h1_cfo_before_customer_funding	H1 2026 / shared	109.10 USD_millions	derived: Remove the disclosed net deferred-revenue cash-flow contribution, without claiming the remaining amount is normalized recurring profit. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_customer_funding).
H1 operating cash flow less capex h1_fcf	H1 2026 / shared	-3,626.20 USD_millions	derived: Cash PP&E and intangibles; acquisitions excluded. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
June AI cloud annualized revenue run rate q2_exit_arr	2026Q2 / shared	3,000.00 USD_millions	reported: Last month of AI cloud revenue times 12; not Q2 revenue times four. Primary source · 2026-08-12
FY2026 company revenue range low fy26_revenue_guidance_low	FY2026 / shared	3,000.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-05-13
FY2026 company revenue range high fy26_revenue_guidance_high	FY2026 / shared	3,400.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-05-13
FY2026 company revenue range endpoint sum fy26_revenue_guidance_sum	FY2026 / shared	6,400.00 USD_millions	derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_revenue_guidance_low, fy26_revenue_guidance_high).
FY2026 company revenue range midpoint fy26_revenue_guidance	FY2026 / shared	3,200.00 USD_millions	derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_revenue_guidance_sum, two).
Year-end AI cloud ARR range low fy26_arr_guidance_low	2026 year-end / shared	7,000.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-05-13
Year-end AI cloud ARR range high fy26_arr_guidance_high	2026 year-end / shared	9,000.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-05-13
Year-end AI cloud ARR range endpoint sum fy26_arr_guidance_sum	2026 year-end / shared	16,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_arr_guidance_low, fy26_arr_guidance_high).
Year-end AI cloud ARR range midpoint fy26_arr_guidance	2026 year-end / shared	8,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_arr_guidance_sum, two).
Company FY2026 gross prepayment expectation exceeds prepayments_threshold	FY2026 / shared	9,000.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company expects OVER $9B gross customer prepayments; this is a threshold, not a point forecast or net deferred-revenue change. Primary source · 2026-08-12
August 2030 notes gross principal aug_note_2030	August financing / shared	3,450.00 USD_millions	reported: 0.5% coupon; financing cash, not revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-24
August 2034 notes gross principal aug_note_2034	August financing / shared	2,300.00 USD_millions	reported: 4.5% coupon; financing cash, not revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-24
August convertible gross proceeds aug_gross_proceeds	August financing / shared	5,750.00 USD_millions	derived: Before fees; do not add gross proceeds to June cash as a current-cash estimate. Formula: sum(aug_note_2030, aug_note_2034).
August 2030 coupon rate aug_rate_2030	Annual / shared	0.5% ratio	reported: Disclosed contractual coupon. Primary source · 2026-08-24
August 2030 annual coupon aug_coupon_2030	Annual / shared	17.25 USD_millions	derived: Gross principal times stated rate. Formula: multiply(aug_note_2030, aug_rate_2030).
August 2034 coupon rate aug_rate_2034	Annual / shared	4.5% ratio	reported: Disclosed contractual coupon. Primary source · 2026-08-24
August 2034 annual coupon aug_coupon_2034	Annual / shared	103.50 USD_millions	derived: Gross principal times stated rate. Formula: multiply(aug_note_2034, aug_rate_2034).
New annual coupon burden aug_new_coupons	Annual / shared	120.75 USD_millions	derived: Before coupons removed in the simultaneous debt-for-shares exchange. Formula: sum(aug_coupon_2030, aug_coupon_2034).
Exchanged 2029 note principal exchange_principal_2029	August financing / shared	400.00 USD_millions	reported: Debt exchanged for shares; not a cash repayment. Primary source · 2026-08-24
Exchanged 2029 coupon exchange_rate_2029	Annual / shared	2.0% ratio	reported: Contractual coupon on exchanged notes. Primary source · 2026-08-24
Retired 2029 annual coupon exchange_coupon_2029	Annual / shared	8.00 USD_millions	derived: Retired principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(exchange_principal_2029, exchange_rate_2029).
Exchanged 2031 note principal exchange_principal_2031	August financing / shared	400.00 USD_millions	reported: Debt exchanged for shares; not a cash repayment. Primary source · 2026-08-24
Exchanged 2031 coupon exchange_rate_2031	Annual / shared	3.0% ratio	reported: Contractual coupon on exchanged notes. Primary source · 2026-08-24
Retired 2031 annual coupon exchange_coupon_2031	Annual / shared	12.00 USD_millions	derived: Retired principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(exchange_principal_2031, exchange_rate_2031).
Annual coupons on exchanged old notes exchange_old_coupons	Annual / shared	20.00 USD_millions	derived: Coupons removed by the debt-for-shares exchange. Formula: sum(exchange_coupon_2029, exchange_coupon_2031).
Incremental annual coupon after exchange aug_net_coupon_increase	Annual / shared	100.75 USD_millions	derived: New coupons less retired-note coupons; excludes issuance fees and further borrowings. Formula: subtract(aug_new_coupons, exchange_old_coupons).
FY2026 cash capex desk assumption downside_fy26_capex_plan	FY2026 / downside	25,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk total cash PP&E and intangible-spend scenario; not a sourced company guidance cell. Downside assumes greater spend despite delayed activation.
Remaining H2 cash capex downside_h2_capex	H2 2026 / downside	16,869.70 USD_millions	derived: Desk full-year spend less reported first-half purchases. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_capex_plan, h1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2026q3_exit_arr	2026Q3 / downside	4,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2026q3_arr_sum	2026Q3 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(q2_exit_arr, downside_2026q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2026q3_average_arr	2026Q3 / downside	3,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2026q3_activation	2026Q3 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2026q3_ai_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	743.75 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_average_arr, quarter, downside_2026q3_activation).
Group revenue downside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	751.15 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2026q3_ebitda_margin	2026Q3 / downside	30.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q3 / downside	225.34 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / downside	375.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q3 / downside	-149.66 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2026q3_customer_funding	2026Q3 / downside	900.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / downside	750.35 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2026q3_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex downside_2026q3_capex_weight	2026Q3 / downside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / downside	8,097.46 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_capex, downside_2026q3_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / downside	-7,347.11 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2026q4_exit_arr	2026Q4 / downside	6,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2026q4_arr_sum	2026Q4 / downside	10,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_exit_arr, downside_2026q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2026q4_average_arr	2026Q4 / downside	5,250.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2026q4_activation	2026Q4 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2026q4_ai_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	1,115.62 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_average_arr, quarter, downside_2026q4_activation).
Group revenue downside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	1,123.03 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2026q4_ebitda_margin	2026Q4 / downside	30.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q4 / downside	336.91 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / downside	400.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q4 / downside	-63.09 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2026q4_customer_funding	2026Q4 / downside	1,100.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / downside	1,036.91 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2026q4_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex downside_2026q4_capex_weight	2026Q4 / downside	52.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / downside	8,772.24 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_h2_capex, downside_2026q4_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / downside	-7,735.34 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2027q1_exit_arr	2027Q1 / downside	7,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2027q1_arr_sum	2027Q1 / downside	14,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_exit_arr, downside_2027q1_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2027q1_average_arr	2027Q1 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2027q1_activation	2027Q1 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2027q1_ai_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	1,487.50 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_average_arr, quarter, downside_2027q1_activation).
Group revenue downside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	1,494.90 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2027q1_ebitda_margin	2027Q1 / downside	32.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q1 / downside	478.37 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / downside	450.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q1 / downside	28.37 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2027q1_customer_funding	2027Q1 / downside	600.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / downside	628.37 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / downside	-6,371.63 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2027q2_exit_arr	2027Q2 / downside	8,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2027q2_arr_sum	2027Q2 / downside	16,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_exit_arr, downside_2027q2_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2027q2_average_arr	2027Q2 / downside	8,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2027q2_activation	2027Q2 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2027q2_ai_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	1,700.00 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_average_arr, quarter, downside_2027q2_activation).
Group revenue downside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	1,707.40 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2027q2_ebitda_margin	2027Q2 / downside	32.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q2 / downside	546.37 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / downside	475.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q2 / downside	71.37 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2027q2_customer_funding	2027Q2 / downside	600.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / downside	671.37 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / downside	-6,328.63 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2027q3_exit_arr	2027Q3 / downside	9,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2027q3_arr_sum	2027Q3 / downside	17,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_exit_arr, downside_2027q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2027q3_average_arr	2027Q3 / downside	8,750.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2027q3_activation	2027Q3 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2027q3_ai_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	1,859.38 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_average_arr, quarter, downside_2027q3_activation).
Group revenue downside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	1,866.78 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2027q3_ebitda_margin	2027Q3 / downside	32.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q3 / downside	597.37 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / downside	500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q3 / downside	97.37 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2027q3_customer_funding	2027Q3 / downside	500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / downside	597.37 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / downside	-6,402.63 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR downside_2027q4_exit_arr	2027Q4 / downside	9,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR downside_2027q4_arr_sum	2027Q4 / downside	18,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_exit_arr, downside_2027q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR downside_2027q4_average_arr	2027Q4 / downside	9,250.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization downside_2027q4_activation	2027Q4 / downside	85.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue downside_2027q4_ai_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	1,965.62 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_average_arr, quarter, downside_2027q4_activation).
Group revenue downside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	1,973.03 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin downside_2027q4_ebitda_margin	2027Q4 / downside	32.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q4 / downside	631.37 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding downside_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / downside	525.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding downside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q4 / downside	106.37 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution downside_2027q4_customer_funding	2027Q4 / downside	500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate downside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / downside	606.37 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases downside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / downside	7,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex downside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / downside	-6,393.63 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / downside	2,855.47 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) downside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda	FY2026 / downside	927.95 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2026 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2026 / downside	-103.65 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2026 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) downside_fy2026_customer_funding	FY2026 / downside	6,395.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_customer_funding, downside_2026q3_customer_funding, downside_2026q4_customer_funding).
FY2026 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / downside	6,291.35 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) downside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / downside	25,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / downside	-18,708.65 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
FY2027 Revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / downside	7,042.10 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) downside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda	FY2027 / downside	2,253.47 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2027 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2027 / downside	303.47 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, downside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2027 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) downside_fy2027_customer_funding	FY2027 / downside	2,200.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_customer_funding, downside_2027q2_customer_funding, downside_2027q3_customer_funding, downside_2027q4_customer_funding).
FY2027 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / downside	2,503.47 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) downside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / downside	28,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / downside	-25,496.53 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
FY2026 cash capex desk assumption base_fy26_capex_plan	FY2026 / base	22,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk total cash PP&E and intangible-spend scenario; not a sourced company guidance cell. Downside assumes greater spend despite delayed activation.
Remaining H2 cash capex base_h2_capex	H2 2026 / base	14,369.70 USD_millions	derived: Desk full-year spend less reported first-half purchases. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_capex_plan, h1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2026q3_exit_arr	2026Q3 / base	4,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2026q3_arr_sum	2026Q3 / base	7,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(q2_exit_arr, base_2026q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2026q3_average_arr	2026Q3 / base	3,750.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2026q3_activation	2026Q3 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2026q3_ai_revenue	2026Q3 / base	843.75 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_average_arr, quarter, base_2026q3_activation).
Group revenue base_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / base	851.15 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2026q3_ebitda_margin	2026Q3 / base	40.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q3 / base	340.46 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / base	325.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q3 / base	15.46 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2026q3_customer_funding	2026Q3 / base	1,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / base	1,515.46 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2026q3_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex base_2026q3_capex_weight	2026Q3 / base	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / base	6,897.46 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_h2_capex, base_2026q3_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex base_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / base	-5,382.00 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2026q4_exit_arr	2026Q4 / base	8,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2026q4_arr_sum	2026Q4 / base	12,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_exit_arr, base_2026q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2026q4_average_arr	2026Q4 / base	6,250.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2026q4_activation	2026Q4 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2026q4_ai_revenue	2026Q4 / base	1,406.25 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_average_arr, quarter, base_2026q4_activation).
Group revenue base_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / base	1,413.65 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2026q4_ebitda_margin	2026Q4 / base	40.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q4 / base	565.46 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / base	350.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q4 / base	215.46 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2026q4_customer_funding	2026Q4 / base	1,800.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / base	2,015.46 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2026q4_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex base_2026q4_capex_weight	2026Q4 / base	52.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / base	7,472.24 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_h2_capex, base_2026q4_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex base_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / base	-5,456.78 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2027q1_exit_arr	2027Q1 / base	9,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2027q1_arr_sum	2027Q1 / base	17,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_exit_arr, base_2027q1_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2027q1_average_arr	2027Q1 / base	8,750.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2027q1_activation	2027Q1 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2027q1_ai_revenue	2027Q1 / base	1,968.75 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_average_arr, quarter, base_2027q1_activation).
Group revenue base_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / base	1,976.15 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2027q1_ebitda_margin	2027Q1 / base	42.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q1 / base	829.98 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / base	400.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q1 / base	429.98 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2027q1_customer_funding	2027Q1 / base	1,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / base	1,929.98 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / base	6,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex base_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / base	-4,570.02 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2027q2_exit_arr	2027Q2 / base	11,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2027q2_arr_sum	2027Q2 / base	21,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_exit_arr, base_2027q2_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2027q2_average_arr	2027Q2 / base	10,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2027q2_activation	2027Q2 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2027q2_ai_revenue	2027Q2 / base	2,362.50 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_average_arr, quarter, base_2027q2_activation).
Group revenue base_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / base	2,369.90 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2027q2_ebitda_margin	2027Q2 / base	42.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q2 / base	995.36 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / base	425.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q2 / base	570.36 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2027q2_customer_funding	2027Q2 / base	1,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / base	2,070.36 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / base	6,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex base_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / base	-4,429.64 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2027q3_exit_arr	2027Q3 / base	13,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2027q3_arr_sum	2027Q3 / base	25,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_exit_arr, base_2027q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2027q3_average_arr	2027Q3 / base	12,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2027q3_activation	2027Q3 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2027q3_ai_revenue	2027Q3 / base	2,812.50 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_average_arr, quarter, base_2027q3_activation).
Group revenue base_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / base	2,819.90 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2027q3_ebitda_margin	2027Q3 / base	42.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q3 / base	1,184.36 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / base	450.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q3 / base	734.36 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2027q3_customer_funding	2027Q3 / base	1,200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / base	1,934.36 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / base	6,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex base_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / base	-4,565.64 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR base_2027q4_exit_arr	2027Q4 / base	15,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR base_2027q4_arr_sum	2027Q4 / base	29,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_exit_arr, base_2027q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR base_2027q4_average_arr	2027Q4 / base	14,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization base_2027q4_activation	2027Q4 / base	90.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue base_2027q4_ai_revenue	2027Q4 / base	3,262.50 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_average_arr, quarter, base_2027q4_activation).
Group revenue base_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / base	3,269.90 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin base_2027q4_ebitda_margin	2027Q4 / base	42.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q4 / base	1,373.36 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding base_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / base	475.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding base_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q4 / base	898.36 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution base_2027q4_customer_funding	2027Q4 / base	1,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate base_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / base	1,898.36 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases base_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / base	6,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex base_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / base	-4,601.64 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / base	3,246.10 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) base_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda	FY2026 / base	1,271.62 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2026 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) base_fy2026_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2026 / base	340.02 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2026 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) base_fy2026_customer_funding	FY2026 / base	7,695.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_customer_funding, base_2026q3_customer_funding, base_2026q4_customer_funding).
FY2026 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) base_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / base	8,035.02 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) base_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / base	22,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / base	-14,464.98 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
FY2027 Revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / base	10,435.85 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) base_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda	FY2027 / base	4,383.06 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2027 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) base_fy2027_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2027 / base	2,633.06 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, base_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2027 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) base_fy2027_customer_funding	FY2027 / base	5,200.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_customer_funding, base_2027q2_customer_funding, base_2027q3_customer_funding, base_2027q4_customer_funding).
FY2027 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) base_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / base	7,833.06 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) base_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / base	26,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / base	-18,166.94 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
FY2026 cash capex desk assumption upside_fy26_capex_plan	FY2026 / upside	20,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk total cash PP&E and intangible-spend scenario; not a sourced company guidance cell. Downside assumes greater spend despite delayed activation.
Remaining H2 cash capex upside_h2_capex	H2 2026 / upside	11,869.70 USD_millions	derived: Desk full-year spend less reported first-half purchases. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_capex_plan, h1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2026q3_exit_arr	2026Q3 / upside	5,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2026q3_arr_sum	2026Q3 / upside	8,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(q2_exit_arr, upside_2026q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2026q3_average_arr	2026Q3 / upside	4,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2026q3_activation	2026Q3 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2026q3_ai_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	950.00 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_average_arr, quarter, upside_2026q3_activation).
Group revenue upside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	957.40 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2026q3_ebitda_margin	2026Q3 / upside	45.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q3 / upside	430.83 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / upside	300.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q3 / upside	130.83 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2026q3_customer_funding	2026Q3 / upside	2,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / upside	2,130.83 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2026q3_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex upside_2026q3_capex_weight	2026Q3 / upside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / upside	5,697.46 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_capex, upside_2026q3_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / upside	-3,566.63 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2026q4_exit_arr	2026Q4 / upside	9,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2026q4_arr_sum	2026Q4 / upside	14,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_exit_arr, upside_2026q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2026q4_average_arr	2026Q4 / upside	7,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2026q4_activation	2026Q4 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2026q4_ai_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	1,662.50 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_average_arr, quarter, upside_2026q4_activation).
Group revenue upside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	1,669.90 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2026q4_ebitda_margin	2026Q4 / upside	45.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda	2026Q4 / upside	751.46 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / upside	325.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2026Q4 / upside	426.46 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2026q4_customer_funding	2026Q4 / upside	2,400.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / upside	2,826.45 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2026q4_customer_funding).
Share of remaining H2 capex upside_2026q4_capex_weight	2026Q4 / upside	52.0% ratio	assumption: Desk spending phasing; H2 weights sum to one.
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / upside	6,172.24 USD_millions	derived: Remaining annual cash capex times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_h2_capex, upside_2026q4_capex_weight).
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / upside	-3,345.79 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2027q1_exit_arr	2027Q1 / upside	11,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2027q1_arr_sum	2027Q1 / upside	20,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_exit_arr, upside_2027q1_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2027q1_average_arr	2027Q1 / upside	10,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2027q1_activation	2027Q1 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2027q1_ai_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	2,375.00 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_average_arr, quarter, upside_2027q1_activation).
Group revenue upside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	2,382.40 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2027q1_ebitda_margin	2027Q1 / upside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q1 / upside	1,143.55 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / upside	375.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q1 / upside	768.55 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2027q1_customer_funding	2027Q1 / upside	2,200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / upside	2,968.55 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / upside	6,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / upside	-3,031.45 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2027q2_exit_arr	2027Q2 / upside	14,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2027q2_arr_sum	2027Q2 / upside	25,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_exit_arr, upside_2027q2_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2027q2_average_arr	2027Q2 / upside	12,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2027q2_activation	2027Q2 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2027q2_ai_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	2,968.75 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_average_arr, quarter, upside_2027q2_activation).
Group revenue upside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	2,976.15 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2027q2_ebitda_margin	2027Q2 / upside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q2 / upside	1,428.55 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / upside	400.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q2 / upside	1,028.55 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2027q2_customer_funding	2027Q2 / upside	2,200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / upside	3,228.55 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / upside	6,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / upside	-2,771.45 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2027q3_exit_arr	2027Q3 / upside	16,500.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2027q3_arr_sum	2027Q3 / upside	30,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_exit_arr, upside_2027q3_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2027q3_average_arr	2027Q3 / upside	15,250.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2027q3_activation	2027Q3 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2027q3_ai_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	3,621.88 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_average_arr, quarter, upside_2027q3_activation).
Group revenue upside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	3,629.28 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2027q3_ebitda_margin	2027Q3 / upside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q3 / upside	1,742.05 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / upside	425.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q3 / upside	1,317.05 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2027q3_customer_funding	2027Q3 / upside	1,800.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / upside	3,117.05 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / upside	6,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / upside	-2,882.95 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-end AI cloud ARR upside_2027q4_exit_arr	2027Q4 / upside	19,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk last-month revenue run rate times 12; 2027 values are not company guidance. Downside intentionally falls below the 2026 company range.
Beginning plus ending ARR upside_2027q4_arr_sum	2027Q4 / upside	35,500.00 USD_millions	derived: Intermediate for the average revenue run rate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_exit_arr, upside_2027q4_exit_arr).
Average beginning/end ARR upside_2027q4_average_arr	2027Q4 / upside	17,750.00 USD_millions	derived: Simple mean; activation factor separately accounts for late-quarter delivery. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_arr_sum, two).
Within-quarter revenue realization upside_2027q4_activation	2027Q4 / upside	95.0% ratio	assumption: Desk haircut to the linear ARR average for back-loaded deployment and utilization. Not a guarantee that ARR translates evenly into earned revenue.
AI cloud revenue upside_2027q4_ai_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	4,215.62 USD_millions	derived: Average ARR divided by four times quarterly realization. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_average_arr, quarter, upside_2027q4_activation).
Group revenue upside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	4,223.02 USD_millions	derived: Adds flat $7.4M quarterly other-business revenue; no separate partnership revenue uplift. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_ai_revenue, h1_q2_other).
Group adjusted EBITDA margin upside_2027q4_ebitda_margin	2027Q4 / upside	48.0% ratio	assumption: Desk group non-GAAP margin. Includes other-business drag; not the higher AI-segment margin and not GAAP operating margin.
Group adjusted EBITDA upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda	2027Q4 / upside	2,027.05 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times group non-GAAP margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_ebitda_margin).
Cash bridge excluding customer funding upside_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / upside	450.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net interest, tax, non-deferred working-capital and other cash-use bridge from adjusted EBITDA. Includes financing burden once; not a detailed GAAP cash-flow reconciliation.
CFO before net deferred-revenue funding upside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding	2027Q4 / upside	1,577.05 USD_millions	derived: Adjusted EBITDA less explicit cash-use bridge, before customer-funding changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Net deferred-revenue cash contribution upside_2027q4_customer_funding	2027Q4 / upside	1,600.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk net cash-flow contribution AFTER revenue recognition; not gross receipts. FY2026 base totals $7.695B including H1, below the company gross-prepayment expectation above $9B.
Operating cash flow estimate upside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / upside	3,177.05 USD_millions	derived: Pre-customer-funding cash estimate plus the net deferred-revenue contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E and intangible purchases upside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / upside	6,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk 2027 construction, hardware and refresh spending; not company guidance or a full GPU-vintage schedule.
Operating cash flow less capex upside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / upside	-2,822.95 USD_millions	derived: Pre-financing cash after PP&E/intangibles; excludes acquisitions and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / upside	3,608.60 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) upside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda	FY2026 / upside	1,547.99 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2026 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2026 / upside	666.39 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2026q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2026q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2026 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) upside_fy2026_customer_funding	FY2026 / upside	8,795.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_customer_funding, upside_2026q3_customer_funding, upside_2026q4_customer_funding).
FY2026 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / upside	9,461.39 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) upside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / upside	20,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / upside	-10,538.62 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
FY2027 Revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / upside	13,210.85 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 Group adjusted EBITDA ($M) upside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda	FY2027 / upside	6,341.21 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
FY2027 CFO before net deferred-revenue funding ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo_before_customer_funding	FY2027 / upside	4,691.21 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q2_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q3_cfo_before_customer_funding, upside_2027q4_cfo_before_customer_funding).
FY2027 Net deferred-revenue funding ($M) upside_fy2027_customer_funding	FY2027 / upside	7,800.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_customer_funding, upside_2027q2_customer_funding, upside_2027q3_customer_funding, upside_2027q4_customer_funding).
FY2027 Operating cash flow estimate ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / upside	12,491.21 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 Cash PP&E and intangible capex ($M) upside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / upside	24,000.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Operating cash flow less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / upside	-11,508.79 USD_millions	derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).

Model boundaries

Initial scenarios, without a complete GAAP income statement, balance sheet, dilution waterfall or valuation. No forward EPS is claimed.
ARR curves, quarterly activation, cash conversion and capital spending are desk assumptions. The dated company revenue/ARR ranges are shown separately.
Net deferred-revenue changes are not gross customer prepayments. Prepayments finance future service obligations and cannot be treated as recurring cash profit.
Cash after capex is before new financing, acquisitions and debt principal. No ending-cash or fully funded claim is made from June balances and August gross proceeds.
Only Q1 and Q2 2026 history is manually reconciled from the August quarterly release; earlier companyfacts annual data is not fabricated into quarters. Gross profit is left unmapped because depreciation is presented separately.
No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership. Future contract pricing, utilization and GPU refresh economics remain uncertain.

AI demand, capital deployment and the customer-funding bridge

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can growing AI revenue become durable cash generation before repeated external funding?

Q2 group revenue was $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, while the GAAP operating loss was $175.9M. June AI cloud exit ARR was $3.0B; it annualizes the final month and is not annual sales. H1 operating cash flow of $4,504.1M falls to $109.1M after removing the $4,395.0M deferred-revenue contribution; that residual is not a normalized-profit claim. Cash PP&E/intangibles totaled $8,130.3M. June cash of $8,042.1M excludes $1,056.0M restricted cash. On August 24, $5.75B gross new converts closed, alongside an $800M debt-for-shares exchange. Those transactions change cash, coupons and ownership differently. The September Palantir partnership has no quantified minimum revenue in its announcement, so it produces no separate modeled uplift.

The competing explanation

Customer commitments and prepayments can materially reduce the equity needed per deployed GPU, and strong utilization can support attractive cash returns. The contrary risk is that headline EBITDA and ARR rise while depreciation, refresh spending, construction obligations and financing continually absorb the economics. Both outcomes remain plausible; the model exposes the assumptions that separate them.

Risks to track

Customer concentration and contract duration affect demand and funding durability.
ARR can grow faster than revenue actually recognized.
Prepayments represent future service obligations, not free recurring cash profit.
GPU replacement, useful lives and financing costs can erode returns.
Converts, prefunded warrants, stock compensation and further equity issuance complicate per-share value.

Next checkpoints

Year-end ARR and revenue delivery · Q4 2026 / full-year results; release date unconfirmed (estimated). Compare $7B-$9B ARR and $3.0B-$3.4B revenue references with actual recognized sales.
Customer funding and cash capex · Each quarterly report (estimated). Reconcile gross prepayments, the net deferred-revenue cash-flow change and actual hardware/construction spending.
Deployment and new financing · Continuing 2026-27 milestones (event driven). Compare accepted capacity, cash outlays, coupon burden and new shares before updating any equity-value model.

Data coverage and open work

Initial scenarios, without a complete GAAP income statement, balance sheet, dilution waterfall or valuation. No forward EPS is claimed.
ARR curves, quarterly activation, cash conversion and capital spending are desk assumptions. The dated company revenue/ARR ranges are shown separately.
Net deferred-revenue changes are not gross customer prepayments. Prepayments finance future service obligations and cannot be treated as recurring cash profit.
Cash after capex is before new financing, acquisitions and debt principal. No ending-cash or fully funded claim is made from June balances and August gross proceeds.
Only Q1 and Q2 2026 history is manually reconciled from the August quarterly release; earlier companyfacts annual data is not fabricated into quarters. Gross profit is left unmapped because depreciation is presented separately.
No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership. Future contract pricing, utilization and GPU refresh economics remain uncertain.

This review: First reviewed scenarios through September 19: August results, August 24 closed financing and September 8 partnership. Adds two sourced quarterly history rows because the generic SEC feed has no usable quarterly series. No contract announcement is counted as cash already earned.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed strong, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in points	Low	Middle	High	Share up
1 session	-2.8	+0.1	+3.0	52%
5 sessions	-5.3	+0.0	+9.8	50%
10 sessions	-8.5	+0.3	+14.9	52%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

Nebius: The Demand Is Real. What Reaches Each Share? · 2026-09-14

Scorecard: 1 note scored; 1 inside the 5-session band (100% coverage)

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/nbis-growth-cash-per-share-20260914): Append the September 14 closing response once completed data are available

Provenance

[1] derived: H1 revenue 981.3M minus Q2 582.3M, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[2] reported: Q2 revenue, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[3] derived: H1 operating loss -303.9M minus Q2 -175.9M, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[4] reported: Q2 operating_income, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[5] derived: H1 net income 430.8M minus Q2 loss -190.4M, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[6] reported: Q2 net_income, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[7] reported: Q2 diluted net loss per ordinary share, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[8] reported: Q2 weighted-average diluted ordinary shares, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[9] reported: Q2 cash reconciliation: beginning unrestricted cash, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[10] reported: Q2 cash, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[11] reported: Q2 debt_long_term, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[12] derived: H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[13] reported: Q2 cfo, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[14] derived: H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[15] reported: Q2 capex; capex includes PP&E and intangible assets, accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[16] derived: CFO - capex; H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12] ; H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12], accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf
[17] derived: CFO - capex; Q2 cfo [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12] ; Q2 capex; capex includes PP&E and intangible assets [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12], accession 0001104659-26-094844, 6-K filed 2026-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00 from https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf

What the author read

August 12 Form 6-K financial statements and obligations · retrieved 2026-09-19
August 12 Q2/H1 results and quarterly cash-flow tables · retrieved 2026-09-19
August 12 shareholder letter: ARR, prepayments and funding · retrieved 2026-09-19
May 13 shareholder letter: 2026 revenue and ARR ranges · retrieved 2026-09-19
August 24 convertible closing and debt-for-shares exchange · retrieved 2026-09-19
September 8 Palantir partnership announcement · retrieved 2026-09-19

Compiled 2026-09-19T17:52:06.277055+00:00 · authored ad7c6bc3067f · generated e045858e0cb7 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard