{"meta":{"as_of":"2026-09-19","revision":4,"skeleton":false,"compiled_at":"2026-09-19T17:52:06.277055+00:00","extract_url":null,"extract_form":null,"authored_hash":"ad7c6bc3067f60c63e79d7f161aab37e","extract_filed":null,"extract_source":"authored","generated_hash":"e045858e0cb7f010afd1da079894ce35","research_stage":"operating_scenarios","business_authored":true,"extract_accession":null,"research_reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"model":{"entity":"NEBIUS GROUP N.V.","source":"SEC companyfacts with reviewed filing supplement; see each value's provenance.","quarters":[{"cfo":{"value":2258000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"fcf":{"value":-214900000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"CFO - capex; H1 continuing CFO 4504.1M minus Q2 2246.1M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12] ; H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M [https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf; filed 2026-08-12]","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"cash":{"value":9298200000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 cash reconciliation: beginning unrestricted cash","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"capex":{"value":2472900000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 PP&E/intangibles 8130.3M minus Q2 5657.4M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"revenue":{"value":399000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 revenue 981.3M minus Q2 582.3M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"net_income":{"value":621200000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 net income 430.8M minus Q2 loss -190.4M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"period_end":"2026-03-31","eps_diluted":null,"fiscal_label":"2026Q1","gross_profit":null,"debt_long_term":null,"shares_diluted":null,"operating_income":{"value":-128000000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"H1 operating loss -303.9M minus Q2 -175.9M","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}}},{"cfo":{"value":2246100000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"reported","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"Q2 cfo","accession":"0001104659-26-094844","source_url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","retrieved_at":"2026-09-19T17:00:00+00:00"}},"fcf":{"value":-3411300000.0,"provenance":{"form":"6-K","class":"derived","filed":"2026-08-12","concept":"CFO - capex; 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What Reaches Each Share?","session":"2026-09-14"}],"memory":{"as_of":"2026-09-18","bands":{"1d":{"p10":-2.753,"p50":0.068,"p90":2.972,"p_up":0.517},"5d":{"p10":-5.26,"p50":0.022,"p90":9.758,"p_up":0.5},"10d":{"p10":-8.491,"p50":0.293,"p90":14.898,"p_up":0.517}},"state":"up/above/off/stuck/ordinary/strong/some","reason":null,"coverage":"ok","analogs_n":300,"disclaimer":"Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Strong AI demand is translating into revenue, but the investment question includes the cost and ownership of the infrastructure that produces it. Q2 revenue was $582.3M versus a $3.0B exit ARR. H1 CFO of $4.504B included $4.395B of net deferred-revenue funding and was below $8.130B cash capex. August financing adds resources and obligations together. The model therefore separates earned revenue, adjusted EBITDA, prepayment-assisted cash flow and capital spending instead of equating ARR or financing proceeds with economic profit.","scenario_ranges":"Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Watch revenue recognized versus ARR, cash generation excluding net deferred-revenue additions, cash capex and funding per unit of deployed capacity. Slower activation, shorter customer commitments or more dilution weaken the case. Improving cash conversion before prepayments and better funding efficiency strengthen it."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm","title":"August 12 Form 6-K financial statements and obligations","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/72a8c258-bbb7-4df7-ab9d-8698f6cb88fc/PR.pdf","title":"August 12 Q2/H1 results and quarterly cash-flow tables","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a6ecfd85-a6cb-4967-8ef7-9a25bd261f9c/SHLQ226.pdf","title":"August 12 shareholder letter: ARR, prepayments and funding","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://assets.nebius.com/assets/4f7f76ee-aa57-41d9-935b-cac74898469d/Nebius%20SHL_Q1%202026.pdf","title":"May 13 shareholder letter: 2026 revenue and ARR ranges","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-announces-closing-of-private-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-with-aggregate-gross-proceeds-of-approximately-5-75-billion","title":"August 24 convertible closing and debt-for-shares exchange","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://nebius.com/newsroom/palantir-and-nebius-partner-to-deliver-a-complete-sovereign-ai-stack-to-palantir-customers","title":"September 8 Palantir partnership announcement","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Deployed compute and revenue earned during each quarter","Group cash generation before customer prepayments","Hardware spending, funding terms and per-share ownership"],"description":"Nebius operates an AI cloud that supplies GPU computing and related software to enterprises and AI developers. Revenue grows as funded hardware and data-center capacity become available and customers use or commit to that capacity. Large customer prepayments, debt and equity finance expansion; annualized revenue run rate describes the latest month, while reported revenue measures services earned during the period."},"earnings":{"source":"Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/nbis-growth-cash-per-share-20260914): Append the September 14 closing response once completed data are available","next_report_date":null},"identity":{"cik":1513845,"sic":"7370","name":"Nebius Group N.V.","symbol":"NBIS","cluster":"AI infrastructure & power","exchange":"Nasdaq"},"research":{"risks":["Customer concentration and contract duration affect demand and funding durability.","ARR can grow faster than revenue actually recognized.","Prepayments represent future service obligations, not free recurring cash profit.","GPU replacement, useful lives and financing costs can erode returns.","Converts, prefunded warrants, stock compensation and further equity issuance complicate per-share value."],"title":"AI demand, capital deployment and the customer-funding bridge","question":"Can growing AI revenue become durable cash generation before repeated external funding?","economics":"Q2 group revenue was $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, while the GAAP operating loss was $175.9M. June AI cloud exit ARR was $3.0B; it annualizes the final month and is not annual sales. H1 operating cash flow of $4,504.1M falls to $109.1M after removing the $4,395.0M deferred-revenue contribution; that residual is not a normalized-profit claim. Cash PP&E/intangibles totaled $8,130.3M. June cash of $8,042.1M excludes $1,056.0M restricted cash. On August 24, $5.75B gross new converts closed, alongside an $800M debt-for-shares exchange. Those transactions change cash, coupons and ownership differently. The September Palantir partnership has no quantified minimum revenue in its announcement, so it produces no separate modeled uplift.","change_note":"First reviewed scenarios through September 19: August results, August 24 closed financing and September 8 partnership. Adds two sourced quarterly history rows because the generic SEC feed has no usable quarterly series. No contract announcement is counted as cash already earned.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Year-end ARR and revenue delivery","watch":"Compare $7B-$9B ARR and $3.0B-$3.4B revenue references with actual recognized sales.","timing":"Q4 2026 / full-year results; release date unconfirmed","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Customer funding and cash capex","watch":"Reconcile gross prepayments, the net deferred-revenue cash-flow change and actual hardware/construction spending.","timing":"Each quarterly report","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Deployment and new financing","watch":"Compare accepted capacity, cash outlays, coupon burden and new shares before updating any equity-value model.","timing":"Continuing 2026-27 milestones","date_status":"event_driven"}],"countercase":"Customer commitments and prepayments can materially reduce the equity needed per deployed GPU, and strong utilization can support attractive cash returns. The contrary risk is that headline EBITDA and ARR rise while depreciation, refresh spending, construction obligations and financing continually absorb the economics. Both outcomes remain plausible; the model exposes the assumptions that separate them.","limitations":["Initial scenarios, without a complete GAAP income statement, balance sheet, dilution waterfall or valuation. No forward EPS is claimed.","ARR curves, quarterly activation, cash conversion and capital spending are desk assumptions. The dated company revenue/ARR ranges are shown separately.","Net deferred-revenue changes are not gross customer prepayments. Prepayments finance future service obligations and cannot be treated as recurring cash profit.","Cash after capex is before new financing, acquisitions and debt principal. No ending-cash or fully funded claim is made from June balances and August gross proceeds.","Only Q1 and Q2 2026 history is manually reconciled from the August quarterly release; earlier companyfacts annual data is not fabricated into quarters. Gross profit is left unmapped because depreciation is presented separately.","No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership. Future contract pricing, utilization and GPU refresh economics remain uncertain."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":851150000.0},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. 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