ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · MATERIALS

$ELMT

Elmet Group Co. · Nasdaq · SIC 3490 · CIK 2101698 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-28

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Research status

Evidence awaiting review · 56 pending evidence leads

Financial accounts through: 2026-07-03
Authored update: 2026-09-28
Source scan: 2026-10-12 09:40 ET
Full model review: Not recorded
Latest event review: 2026-09-28 21:24 ET
Oldest pending lead: 2026-09-20 10:27 ET

Filings: checked | 2026-10-12 09:40 ET
News: checked | 2026-10-12 09:40 ET
Price: checked | 2026-10-12 09:40 ET

Open evidence leads

8-K filed 2026-09-30
8-K filed 2026-10-02
Analysts Offer Insights on Technology Companies: HubSpot (HUBS), Salesforce (CRM) and Lightpath Technologies (LPTH) - The Globe and Mail
Top Elmet Group (ELMT) Competitors 2026 - MarketBeat
Non-controlling/minority interest of Elmet Group Co. – LS:A4274M - TradingView

Leads require verification; they are not established material changes.

A published model and a successful scan do not establish a completed review. Status describes current monitoring; every promotion requires fresh checks.

Research status JSON

Business

The Elmet Group manufactures tungsten and molybdenum components and advanced high-power systems. Its new government-backed supply-chain program adds planned mining, refining and stockpile-delivery activity. Existing product demand, material prices, investment timing and senior preferred claims determine cash economics.

Three drivers

Core demand versus raw-material price pass-through
Incremental tungsten supply and accepted stockpile deliveries
Staged preferred funding, project cash and acquisition terms

Thesis

Our view

September funding materially expands the execution opportunity but also adds preferred and dilution claims. The research tests when real external deliveries and operating cash follow investment, keeping contract ceilings and received financing separate from revenue.

What changes it

Track tranche closings, external project cash, inventory, purchase-price adjustments and accepted stockpile orders before upgrading the earnings case. The late-September agreements add three items to watch: the $124.75M Masan High-Tech Materials stake (a minority holding with a break fee, not tungsten supply), the Tungsten West offtake from 2027 (contracted volume, not revenue), and the Blue Moon warrant (dilution alongside the earlier CAD35M commitment).

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 4 fiscal quarters available

Fiscal quarter	2025Q1 2025-03-31	2025Q2 2025-06-30	2026Q1 2026-04-03	2026Q2 2026-07-03
Revenue ($M)	46.4¹	49.1²	56.0¹	66.4²
Gross profit ($M)	8.6³	10.1⁴	11.8³	16.6⁴
Operating income ($M)	2.9⁵	3.2⁶	1.9⁵	-7.6⁶
Net income ($M)	1.2⁷	1.2⁸	-0.3⁸	-4.5⁸
EPS, diluted ($)	0.06⁹	0.06¹⁰	-0.02⁹	-0.16¹⁰
Diluted shares (M)	20.1¹¹	20.3¹²	20.1¹¹	28.4¹²
Cash ($M)	—	1.8¹³	1.8¹⁴	66.1¹⁵
Long-term debt ($M)	—	—	26.8¹⁶	10.4¹⁷
Cash from operations ($M)	5.3¹⁸	1.0†¹⁹	6.9¹⁸	-14.5†¹⁹
Capex ($M)	2.7²⁰	1.9†²¹	2.3²⁰	0.8†²¹
Free cash flow ($M)	2.6†²²	-0.9†²³	4.6†²²	-15.3†²³

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

Period	Revenue ($M)	EPS ($)	As of	Basis
2026Q3	77.7	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4	83.0	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1	88.4	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2	102.0	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Total revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Metal-price pass-through, staged government capital and new delivery obligations

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Separate legacy demand from incremental metal-price pass-through, acquired German operations and future stockpile deliveries. Calculate gross profit after matched input costs, then operating and cash costs including inventory. Model the announced domestic/JV build, raw-material prepayments and minority investment separately. Show initial preferred proceeds, conditional semiannual tranches and compounding PIK claims without calling them sales. Explicitly model a conditional German purchase-price sensitivity rather than treating the negative fixed component as free cash.

Reported anchors and guidance

Measure	Period	Value	Basis
revenue	H1 / July 3 2026	122.41	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
inventory use	H1 / July 3 2026	32.76	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
cfo	H1 / July 3 2026	-7.57	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
capex	H1 / July 3 2026	3.14	reported. Net capex is after capital grants; strategic cash was exercise of an investment call option. Source · 2026-08-13
H1 cash after net PP&E and strategic cash	H1 2026	-12.14	derived. No further grant cash added again.
cash	H1 / July 3 2026	66.12	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
backlog	H1 / July 3 2026	131.50	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
preferred received	September 2026	200.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
preferred remaining	September 2026	250.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
Annual preferred PIK rate	Contract	5.5%	reported. Quarterly compounding; no current cash dividend assumed. Source · 2026-09-14
stockpile ceiling	September 2026	2,000.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
stockpile minimum	September 2026	150.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
domestic investment	September 2026	165.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
springer initial	September 2026	75.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
springer prepayment capacity	September 2026	50.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14
award withholding	H1 / July 3 2026	4.37	reported. USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Source · 2026-08-13
bonus cap	September 2026	3.00	reported. The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Source · 2026-09-14

Downside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M)	Total revenue ($M)	Core and acquired component revenue ($M)	Gross profit proxy ($M)	Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M)	Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M)	Operating income proxy ($M)	Preferred funding cash ($M)	Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M)	Cash after preferred funding ($M)	Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3	-23.99	15.00	78.40	78.40	14.61	0.57	0.00	-3.79	200.00	0.00	161.01	-38.99
2026Q4	-30.62	30.00	82.73	82.73	14.90	2.76	50.55	-5.52	0.00	0.00	-111.17	-111.17
2027Q1	-35.75	45.00	84.06	84.06	15.19	2.80	0.00	-7.25	0.00	0.00	-80.75	-80.75
2027Q2	-41.69	50.00	86.05	86.05	16.17	2.83	64.24	-11.29	0.00	0.00	-155.93	-155.93
FY2026	-62.18	48.14	283.54	283.54	57.97	3.33	51.98	-15.08	200.00	0.00	37.70	-162.30
FY2027	-164.03	210.00	362.52	347.52	67.75	11.42	60.24	-37.13	0.00	15.00	-434.27	-434.27

Base scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M)	Total revenue ($M)	Core and acquired component revenue ($M)	Gross profit proxy ($M)	Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M)	Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M)	Operating income proxy ($M)	Preferred funding cash ($M)	Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M)	Cash after preferred funding ($M)	Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3	-13.77	15.00	77.72	77.72	17.43	0.57	0.00	1.43	200.00	0.00	171.23	-28.77
2026Q4	-18.54	25.00	83.04	83.04	18.26	2.76	50.55	0.46	0.00	0.00	-94.09	-94.09
2027Q1	-21.95	40.00	88.36	88.36	19.45	2.97	2.34	-0.15	50.00	0.00	-14.29	-64.29
2027Q2	-25.71	45.00	102.01	97.01	22.29	3.52	25.00	-2.11	0.00	5.00	-95.71	-95.71
FY2026	-39.88	43.14	283.17	283.17	64.15	3.33	51.98	-3.87	200.00	0.00	65.00	-135.00
FY2027	-98.41	190.00	435.68	390.68	93.29	14.55	23.34	1.09	100.00	45.00	-211.75	-311.75

Upside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M)	Total revenue ($M)	Core and acquired component revenue ($M)	Gross profit proxy ($M)	Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M)	Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M)	Operating income proxy ($M)	Preferred funding cash ($M)	Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M)	Cash after preferred funding ($M)	Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3	-10.34	15.00	76.71	76.71	19.36	0.57	0.00	3.36	200.00	0.00	174.66	-25.34
2026Q4	-13.68	30.00	81.36	81.36	20.62	2.76	50.55	2.82	0.00	0.00	-94.23	-94.23
2027Q1	-14.85	45.00	95.00	90.00	23.55	2.97	-6.35	3.95	50.00	5.00	-3.50	-53.50
2027Q2	-18.20	55.00	118.64	103.64	27.80	3.52	25.00	3.40	0.00	15.00	-98.20	-98.20
FY2026	-31.59	48.14	280.48	280.48	68.44	3.33	51.98	0.42	200.00	0.00	68.29	-131.71
FY2027	-65.58	225.00	509.85	424.85	117.62	14.55	14.66	25.42	100.00	85.00	-205.24	-305.24

All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model

Input / calculation	Period / case	Value / unit	Evidence or assumption
revenue h1_revenue	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	122.41 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
core revenue h1_core_revenue	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	122.41 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
stockpile revenue h1_stockpile_revenue	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	0.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
gross profit h1_gross_profit	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	28.46 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
operating income h1_operating_income	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	-5.76 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
cfo h1_cfo	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	-7.57 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
capex h1_capex	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	3.14 USD_millions	reported: Net capex is after capital grants; strategic cash was exercise of an investment call option. Primary source · 2026-08-13
strategic cash h1_strategic_cash	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	1.43 USD_millions	reported: Net capex is after capital grants; strategic cash was exercise of an investment call option. Primary source · 2026-08-13
preferred funding h1_preferred_funding	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	0.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
preferred pik h1_preferred_pik	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	0.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
sbc h1_sbc	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	10.73 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
da h1_da	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	3.78 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
inventory use h1_inventory_use	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	32.76 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
award withholding h1_award_withholding	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	4.37 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
cash cash	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	66.12 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
backlog backlog	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	131.50 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
net ipo net_ipo	H1 / July 3 2026 / shared	125.36 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; preferred financing and stockpile program occurred after H1. Primary source · 2026-08-13
Net capex and investment purchase h1_business_investing	H1 2026 / shared	4.57 USD_millions	derived: Uses statement net-of-capital-grants presentation. Formula: sum(h1_capex, h1_strategic_cash).
H1 cash after net PP&E and strategic cash h1_cash_after_investing	H1 2026 / shared	-12.14 USD_millions	derived: No further grant cash added again. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_business_investing).
H1 cash after preferred funding h1_cash_after_funding	H1 2026 / shared	-12.14 USD_millions	derived: H1 IPO cash is outside this selected-funding comparison. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, h1_preferred_funding).
preferred received preferred_received	September 2026 / shared	200.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
preferred remaining preferred_remaining	September 2026 / shared	250.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
stockpile ceiling stockpile_ceiling	September 2026 / shared	2,000.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
stockpile minimum stockpile_minimum	September 2026 / shared	150.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
domestic investment domestic_investment	September 2026 / shared	165.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
springer initial springer_initial	September 2026 / shared	75.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
springer prepayment capacity springer_prepayment_capacity	September 2026 / shared	50.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
bonus cap bonus_cap	September 2026 / shared	3.00 USD_millions	reported: The $200M initial receipt is actual. Other commitments, limits and intended investments are not automatically receipts or current revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-14
Annual preferred PIK rate preferred_rate	Contract / shared	5.5% ratio	reported: Quarterly compounding; no current cash dividend assumed. Primary source · 2026-09-14
Q2 revenue q2_revenue	2026Q2 / shared	66.40 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
Q2 gross profit q2_gross	2026Q2 / shared	16.61 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-13
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2026q3_demand_index	2026Q3 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2026q3_legacy_demand	2026Q3 / downside	66.40 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2026q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2026q3_metal_pass	2026Q3 / downside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2026q3_german_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2026q3_core_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	78.40 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_demand, downside_2026q3_metal_pass, downside_2026q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	78.40 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2026q3_core_margin	2026Q3 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2026q3_legacy_gross	2026Q3 / downside	14.61 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_legacy_demand, downside_2026q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q3 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2026q3_metal_cost	2026Q3 / downside	12.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_metal_pass, downside_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2026q3_price_gross	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_metal_pass, downside_2026q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2026q3_german_margin	2026Q3 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2026q3_german_gross	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_german_revenue, downside_2026q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2026q3_stock_margin	2026Q3 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2026q3_stockpile_gross	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, downside_2026q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2026q3_gross_profit	2026Q3 / downside	14.61 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_gross, downside_2026q3_price_gross, downside_2026q3_german_gross, downside_2026q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2026q3_cash_bonus	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2026q3_cash_opex	2026Q3 / downside	14.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / downside	18.40 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_opex, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / downside	-3.79 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2026q3_cash_interest_income	2026Q3 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q3 / downside	2.21 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2026q3_cash_interest	2026Q3 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2026q3_inventory_other_cash	2026Q3 / downside	18.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q3 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q3 / downside	6.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_metal_pass, downside_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / downside	26.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_inventory_other_cash, downside_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / downside	-23.99 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2026q3_german_eur_amount	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2026q3_eur_usd	2026Q3 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2026q3_german_price	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_german_eur_amount, downside_2026q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2026q3_cad_commitment	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2026q3_cad_usd	2026Q3 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2026q3_blue_moon	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_cad_commitment, downside_2026q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2026q3_raw_prepay	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2026q3_strategic_cash	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_blue_moon, downside_2026q3_raw_prepay, downside_2026q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2026q3_business_investment	2026Q3 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing	2026Q3 / downside	-38.99 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2026q3_preferred_funding	2026Q3 / downside	200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
Opening preferred claim downside_2026q3_preferred_opening	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding quarter weight downside_2026q3_funding_weight	2026Q3 / downside	20.9% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2026q3_new_pik_basis	2026Q3 / downside	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_preferred_funding, downside_2026q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2026q3_pik_basis	2026Q3 / downside	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_preferred_opening, downside_2026q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2026q3_quarter_year	2026Q3 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2026q3_preferred_pik	2026Q3 / downside	0.57 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2026q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2026q3_preferred_ending	2026Q3 / downside	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_preferred_opening, downside_2026q3_preferred_funding, downside_2026q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding	2026Q3 / downside	161.01 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2026q4_demand_index	2026Q4 / downside	102.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2026q4_legacy_demand	2026Q4 / downside	67.73 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2026q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2026q4_metal_pass	2026Q4 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2026q4_german_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2026q4_core_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	82.73 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_demand, downside_2026q4_metal_pass, downside_2026q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	82.73 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_core_revenue, downside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2026q4_core_margin	2026Q4 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2026q4_legacy_gross	2026Q4 / downside	14.90 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_legacy_demand, downside_2026q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q4 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2026q4_metal_cost	2026Q4 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_metal_pass, downside_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2026q4_price_gross	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_metal_pass, downside_2026q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2026q4_german_margin	2026Q4 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2026q4_german_gross	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_german_revenue, downside_2026q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2026q4_stock_margin	2026Q4 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2026q4_stockpile_gross	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue, downside_2026q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2026q4_gross_profit	2026Q4 / downside	14.90 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_gross, downside_2026q4_price_gross, downside_2026q4_german_gross, downside_2026q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / downside	2.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / downside	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2026q4_cash_bonus	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2026q4_cash_opex	2026Q4 / downside	15.72 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / downside	20.42 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_opex, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / downside	-5.52 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2026q4_cash_interest_income	2026Q4 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q4 / downside	1.18 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / downside	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2026q4_cash_interest	2026Q4 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2026q4_inventory_other_cash	2026Q4 / downside	21.60 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q4 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q4 / downside	7.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_metal_pass, downside_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / downside	31.80 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_inventory_other_cash, downside_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / downside	-30.62 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / downside	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2026q4_german_eur_amount	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2026q4_eur_usd	2026Q4 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2026q4_german_price	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_german_eur_amount, downside_2026q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2026q4_cad_commitment	2026Q4 / downside	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2026q4_cad_usd	2026Q4 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2026q4_blue_moon	2026Q4 / downside	25.55 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_cad_commitment, downside_2026q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2026q4_raw_prepay	2026Q4 / downside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2026q4_strategic_cash	2026Q4 / downside	50.55 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_blue_moon, downside_2026q4_raw_prepay, downside_2026q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2026q4_business_investment	2026Q4 / downside	80.55 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_capex, downside_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing	2026Q4 / downside	-111.17 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2026q4_preferred_funding	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight downside_2026q4_funding_weight	2026Q4 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2026q4_new_pik_basis	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_preferred_funding, downside_2026q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2026q4_pik_basis	2026Q4 / downside	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_preferred_ending, downside_2026q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2026q4_quarter_year	2026Q4 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2026q4_preferred_pik	2026Q4 / downside	2.76 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2026q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2026q4_preferred_ending	2026Q4 / downside	203.33 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_preferred_ending, downside_2026q4_preferred_funding, downside_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding	2026Q4 / downside	-111.17 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2027q1_demand_index	2027Q1 / downside	104.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2027q1_legacy_demand	2027Q1 / downside	69.06 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q1_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2027q1_metal_pass	2027Q1 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2027q1_german_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2027q1_core_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	84.06 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_demand, downside_2027q1_metal_pass, downside_2027q1_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	84.06 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2027q1_core_margin	2027Q1 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2027q1_legacy_gross	2027Q1 / downside	15.19 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_legacy_demand, downside_2027q1_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q1 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2027q1_metal_cost	2027Q1 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_metal_pass, downside_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2027q1_price_gross	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_metal_pass, downside_2027q1_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2027q1_german_margin	2027Q1 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2027q1_german_gross	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_german_revenue, downside_2027q1_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2027q1_stock_margin	2027Q1 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2027q1_stockpile_gross	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q1_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2027q1_gross_profit	2027Q1 / downside	15.19 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_gross, downside_2027q1_price_gross, downside_2027q1_german_gross, downside_2027q1_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / downside	2.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / downside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2027q1_cash_bonus	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2027q1_cash_opex	2027Q1 / downside	17.04 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / downside	22.44 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_opex, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / downside	-7.25 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2027q1_cash_interest_income	2027Q1 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q1 / downside	0.15 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / downside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2027q1_cash_interest	2027Q1 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2027q1_inventory_other_cash	2027Q1 / downside	25.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q1 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q1 / downside	7.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_metal_pass, downside_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / downside	35.90 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_inventory_other_cash, downside_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / downside	-35.75 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / downside	45.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q1_german_eur_amount	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2027q1_eur_usd	2027Q1 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2027q1_german_price	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_german_eur_amount, downside_2027q1_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q1_cad_commitment	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2027q1_cad_usd	2027Q1 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2027q1_blue_moon	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_cad_commitment, downside_2027q1_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2027q1_raw_prepay	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2027q1_strategic_cash	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_blue_moon, downside_2027q1_raw_prepay, downside_2027q1_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2027q1_business_investment	2027Q1 / downside	45.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q1_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing	2027Q1 / downside	-80.75 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2027q1_preferred_funding	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight downside_2027q1_funding_weight	2027Q1 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2027q1_new_pik_basis	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_preferred_funding, downside_2027q1_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2027q1_pik_basis	2027Q1 / downside	203.33 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_preferred_ending, downside_2027q1_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2027q1_quarter_year	2027Q1 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2027q1_preferred_pik	2027Q1 / downside	2.80 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2027q1_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2027q1_preferred_ending	2027Q1 / downside	206.13 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_preferred_ending, downside_2027q1_preferred_funding, downside_2027q1_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding	2027Q1 / downside	-80.75 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q1_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2027q2_demand_index	2027Q2 / downside	107.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2027q2_legacy_demand	2027Q2 / downside	71.05 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2027q2_metal_pass	2027Q2 / downside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2027q2_german_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2027q2_core_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	86.05 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_demand, downside_2027q2_metal_pass, downside_2027q2_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	86.05 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2027q2_core_margin	2027Q2 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2027q2_legacy_gross	2027Q2 / downside	15.63 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_legacy_demand, downside_2027q2_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q2 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2027q2_metal_cost	2027Q2 / downside	12.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_metal_pass, downside_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2027q2_price_gross	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_metal_pass, downside_2027q2_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2027q2_german_margin	2027Q2 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2027q2_german_gross	2027Q2 / downside	0.54 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_german_revenue, downside_2027q2_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2027q2_stock_margin	2027Q2 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2027q2_stockpile_gross	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q2_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2027q2_gross_profit	2027Q2 / downside	16.17 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_gross, downside_2027q2_price_gross, downside_2027q2_german_gross, downside_2027q2_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / downside	2.60 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / downside	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2027q2_cash_bonus	2027Q2 / downside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2027q2_cash_opex	2027Q2 / downside	18.36 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / downside	27.46 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_opex, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / downside	-11.29 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2027q2_cash_interest_income	2027Q2 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q2 / downside	-3.19 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / downside	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2027q2_cash_interest	2027Q2 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2027q2_inventory_other_cash	2027Q2 / downside	28.80 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q2 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q2 / downside	6.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_metal_pass, downside_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / downside	38.50 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_inventory_other_cash, downside_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / downside	-41.69 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / downside	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q2_german_eur_amount	2027Q2 / downside	34.12 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2027q2_eur_usd	2027Q2 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2027q2_german_price	2027Q2 / downside	39.24 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_german_eur_amount, downside_2027q2_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q2_cad_commitment	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2027q2_cad_usd	2027Q2 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2027q2_blue_moon	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_cad_commitment, downside_2027q2_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2027q2_raw_prepay	2027Q2 / downside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2027q2_strategic_cash	2027Q2 / downside	64.24 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_blue_moon, downside_2027q2_raw_prepay, downside_2027q2_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2027q2_business_investment	2027Q2 / downside	114.24 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q2_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing	2027Q2 / downside	-155.93 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2027q2_preferred_funding	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight downside_2027q2_funding_weight	2027Q2 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2027q2_new_pik_basis	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_preferred_funding, downside_2027q2_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2027q2_pik_basis	2027Q2 / downside	206.13 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_ending, downside_2027q2_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2027q2_quarter_year	2027Q2 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2027q2_preferred_pik	2027Q2 / downside	2.83 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2027q2_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2027q2_preferred_ending	2027Q2 / downside	208.96 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_ending, downside_2027q2_preferred_funding, downside_2027q2_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding	2027Q2 / downside	-155.93 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q2_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2027q3_demand_index	2027Q3 / downside	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2027q3_legacy_demand	2027Q3 / downside	73.04 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2027q3_metal_pass	2027Q3 / downside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2027q3_german_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2027q3_core_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	88.04 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_demand, downside_2027q3_metal_pass, downside_2027q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	93.04 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2027q3_core_margin	2027Q3 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2027q3_legacy_gross	2027Q3 / downside	16.07 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_legacy_demand, downside_2027q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q3 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2027q3_metal_cost	2027Q3 / downside	10.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_metal_pass, downside_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2027q3_price_gross	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_metal_pass, downside_2027q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2027q3_german_margin	2027Q3 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2027q3_german_gross	2027Q3 / downside	0.90 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_german_revenue, downside_2027q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2027q3_stock_margin	2027Q3 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2027q3_stockpile_gross	2027Q3 / downside	0.60 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2027q3_gross_profit	2027Q3 / downside	17.57 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_gross, downside_2027q3_price_gross, downside_2027q3_german_gross, downside_2027q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / downside	2.80 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / downside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2027q3_cash_bonus	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2027q3_cash_opex	2027Q3 / downside	19.68 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / downside	26.48 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_opex, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / downside	-8.91 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2027q3_cash_interest_income	2027Q3 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q3 / downside	-0.11 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / downside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2027q3_cash_interest	2027Q3 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2027q3_inventory_other_cash	2027Q3 / downside	32.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q3 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_metal_pass, downside_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / downside	41.60 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_inventory_other_cash, downside_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / downside	-41.71 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q3_german_eur_amount	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2027q3_eur_usd	2027Q3 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2027q3_german_price	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_german_eur_amount, downside_2027q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q3_cad_commitment	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2027q3_cad_usd	2027Q3 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2027q3_blue_moon	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_cad_commitment, downside_2027q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2027q3_raw_prepay	2027Q3 / downside	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2027q3_strategic_cash	2027Q3 / downside	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_blue_moon, downside_2027q3_raw_prepay, downside_2027q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2027q3_business_investment	2027Q3 / downside	53.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing	2027Q3 / downside	-94.71 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2027q3_preferred_funding	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight downside_2027q3_funding_weight	2027Q3 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2027q3_new_pik_basis	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_preferred_funding, downside_2027q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2027q3_pik_basis	2027Q3 / downside	208.96 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_preferred_ending, downside_2027q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2027q3_quarter_year	2027Q3 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2027q3_preferred_pik	2027Q3 / downside	2.87 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2027q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2027q3_preferred_ending	2027Q3 / downside	211.84 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_preferred_ending, downside_2027q3_preferred_funding, downside_2027q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding	2027Q3 / downside	-94.71 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 downside_2027q4_demand_index	2027Q4 / downside	112.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices downside_2027q4_legacy_demand	2027Q4 / downside	74.37 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, downside_2027q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through downside_2027q4_metal_pass	2027Q4 / downside	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue downside_2027q4_german_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue downside_2027q4_core_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	89.37 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_demand, downside_2027q4_metal_pass, downside_2027q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries downside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue downside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	99.37 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin downside_2027q4_core_margin	2027Q4 / downside	22.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit downside_2027q4_legacy_gross	2027Q4 / downside	16.36 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_legacy_demand, downside_2027q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through downside_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q4 / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost downside_2027q4_metal_cost	2027Q4 / downside	8.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_metal_pass, downside_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit downside_2027q4_price_gross	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_metal_pass, downside_2027q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin downside_2027q4_german_margin	2027Q4 / downside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution downside_2027q4_german_gross	2027Q4 / downside	1.26 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_german_revenue, downside_2027q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin downside_2027q4_stock_margin	2027Q4 / downside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution downside_2027q4_stockpile_gross	2027Q4 / downside	1.20 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy downside_2027q4_gross_profit	2027Q4 / downside	18.82 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_gross, downside_2027q4_price_gross, downside_2027q4_german_gross, downside_2027q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC downside_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / downside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A downside_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / downside	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance downside_2027q4_cash_bonus	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense downside_2027q4_cash_opex	2027Q4 / downside	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A downside_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / downside	28.50 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_opex, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / downside	-9.68 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_opex).
Cash interest income downside_2027q4_cash_interest_income	2027Q4 / downside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest downside_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q4 / downside	-0.18 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax downside_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / downside	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest downside_2027q4_cash_interest	2027Q4 / downside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use downside_2027q4_inventory_other_cash	2027Q4 / downside	36.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share downside_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q4 / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding downside_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q4 / downside	4.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_metal_pass, downside_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital downside_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / downside	44.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_inventory_other_cash, downside_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / downside	-44.88 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash downside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q4_german_eur_amount	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion downside_2027q4_eur_usd	2027Q4 / downside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD downside_2027q4_german_price	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_german_eur_amount, downside_2027q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX downside_2027q4_cad_commitment	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption downside_2027q4_cad_usd	2027Q4 / downside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash downside_2027q4_blue_moon	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_cad_commitment, downside_2027q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments downside_2027q4_raw_prepay	2027Q4 / downside	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash downside_2027q4_strategic_cash	2027Q4 / downside	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_blue_moon, downside_2027q4_raw_prepay, downside_2027q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment downside_2027q4_business_investment	2027Q4 / downside	58.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_capex, downside_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing	2027Q4 / downside	-102.88 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts downside_2027q4_preferred_funding	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight downside_2027q4_funding_weight	2027Q4 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter downside_2027q4_new_pik_basis	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_preferred_funding, downside_2027q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK downside_2027q4_pik_basis	2027Q4 / downside	211.84 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_preferred_ending, downside_2027q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction downside_2027q4_quarter_year	2027Q4 / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual downside_2027q4_preferred_pik	2027Q4 / downside	2.91 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, downside_2027q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments downside_2027q4_preferred_ending	2027Q4 / downside	214.75 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_preferred_ending, downside_2027q4_preferred_funding, downside_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding	2027Q4 / downside	-102.88 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Total revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / downside	283.54 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_core_revenue	FY2026 / downside	283.54 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, downside_2026q3_core_revenue, downside_2026q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) downside_fy2026_stockpile_revenue	FY2026 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_stockpile_revenue, downside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, downside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit	FY2026 / downside	57.97 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / downside	-15.08 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / downside	-62.18 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) downside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / downside	48.14 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) downside_fy2026_strategic_cash	FY2026 / downside	51.98 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_cash, downside_2026q3_strategic_cash, downside_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_investing	FY2026 / downside	-162.30 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) downside_fy2026_preferred_funding	FY2026 / downside	200.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_funding, downside_2026q3_preferred_funding, downside_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) downside_fy2026_preferred_pik	FY2026 / downside	3.33 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_pik, downside_2026q3_preferred_pik, downside_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_funding	FY2026 / downside	37.70 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Total revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / downside	362.52 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_core_revenue	FY2027 / downside	347.52 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_core_revenue, downside_2027q2_core_revenue, downside_2027q3_core_revenue, downside_2027q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) downside_fy2027_stockpile_revenue	FY2027 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, downside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit	FY2027 / downside	67.75 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / downside	-37.13 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / downside	-164.03 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) downside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / downside	210.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) downside_fy2027_strategic_cash	FY2027 / downside	60.24 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_strategic_cash, downside_2027q2_strategic_cash, downside_2027q3_strategic_cash, downside_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_investing	FY2027 / downside	-434.27 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) downside_fy2027_preferred_funding	FY2027 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_funding, downside_2027q2_preferred_funding, downside_2027q3_preferred_funding, downside_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) downside_fy2027_preferred_pik	FY2027 / downside	11.42 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_pik, downside_2027q2_preferred_pik, downside_2027q3_preferred_pik, downside_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_funding	FY2027 / downside	-434.27 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, downside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2026q3_demand_index	2026Q3 / base	105.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2026q3_legacy_demand	2026Q3 / base	69.72 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2026q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2026q3_metal_pass	2026Q3 / base	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2026q3_german_revenue	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2026q3_core_revenue	2026Q3 / base	77.72 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_demand, base_2026q3_metal_pass, base_2026q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2026q3_stockpile_revenue	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / base	77.72 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2026q3_core_margin	2026Q3 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2026q3_legacy_gross	2026Q3 / base	17.43 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_legacy_demand, base_2026q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q3 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2026q3_metal_cost	2026Q3 / base	8.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_metal_pass, base_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2026q3_price_gross	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_metal_pass, base_2026q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2026q3_german_margin	2026Q3 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2026q3_german_gross	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_german_revenue, base_2026q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2026q3_stock_margin	2026Q3 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2026q3_stockpile_gross	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, base_2026q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2026q3_gross_profit	2026Q3 / base	17.43 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_gross, base_2026q3_price_gross, base_2026q3_german_gross, base_2026q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2026q3_cash_bonus	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2026q3_cash_opex	2026Q3 / base	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / base	16.00 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_opex, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / base	1.43 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_opex).
Cash interest income base_2026q3_cash_interest_income	2026Q3 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q3 / base	7.43 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2026q3_cash_interest	2026Q3 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2026q3_inventory_other_cash	2026Q3 / base	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q3 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q3 / base	4.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_metal_pass, base_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / base	21.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_cash_interest, base_2026q3_inventory_other_cash, base_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / base	-13.77 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / base	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2026q3_german_eur_amount	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2026q3_eur_usd	2026Q3 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2026q3_german_price	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_german_eur_amount, base_2026q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2026q3_cad_commitment	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2026q3_cad_usd	2026Q3 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2026q3_blue_moon	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_cad_commitment, base_2026q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2026q3_raw_prepay	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2026q3_strategic_cash	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_blue_moon, base_2026q3_raw_prepay, base_2026q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2026q3_business_investment	2026Q3 / base	15.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2026q3_cash_after_investing	2026Q3 / base	-28.77 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2026q3_preferred_funding	2026Q3 / base	200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
Opening preferred claim base_2026q3_preferred_opening	2026Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding quarter weight base_2026q3_funding_weight	2026Q3 / base	20.9% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2026q3_new_pik_basis	2026Q3 / base	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_preferred_funding, base_2026q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2026q3_pik_basis	2026Q3 / base	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_preferred_opening, base_2026q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2026q3_quarter_year	2026Q3 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2026q3_preferred_pik	2026Q3 / base	0.57 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2026q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2026q3_preferred_ending	2026Q3 / base	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_preferred_opening, base_2026q3_preferred_funding, base_2026q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2026q3_cash_after_funding	2026Q3 / base	171.23 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_after_investing, base_2026q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2026q4_demand_index	2026Q4 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2026q4_legacy_demand	2026Q4 / base	73.04 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2026q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2026q4_metal_pass	2026Q4 / base	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2026q4_german_revenue	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2026q4_core_revenue	2026Q4 / base	83.04 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_demand, base_2026q4_metal_pass, base_2026q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2026q4_stockpile_revenue	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / base	83.04 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_core_revenue, base_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2026q4_core_margin	2026Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2026q4_legacy_gross	2026Q4 / base	18.26 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_legacy_demand, base_2026q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q4 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2026q4_metal_cost	2026Q4 / base	10.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_metal_pass, base_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2026q4_price_gross	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_metal_pass, base_2026q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2026q4_german_margin	2026Q4 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2026q4_german_gross	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_german_revenue, base_2026q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2026q4_stock_margin	2026Q4 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2026q4_stockpile_gross	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_stockpile_revenue, base_2026q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2026q4_gross_profit	2026Q4 / base	18.26 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_gross, base_2026q4_price_gross, base_2026q4_german_gross, base_2026q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / base	2.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / base	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2026q4_cash_bonus	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2026q4_cash_opex	2026Q4 / base	13.10 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / base	17.80 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_opex, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / base	0.46 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_opex).
Cash interest income base_2026q4_cash_interest_income	2026Q4 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q4 / base	7.16 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / base	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2026q4_cash_interest	2026Q4 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2026q4_inventory_other_cash	2026Q4 / base	18.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q4 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q4 / base	5.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_metal_pass, base_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / base	25.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_cash_interest, base_2026q4_inventory_other_cash, base_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / base	-18.54 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / base	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2026q4_german_eur_amount	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2026q4_eur_usd	2026Q4 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2026q4_german_price	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_german_eur_amount, base_2026q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2026q4_cad_commitment	2026Q4 / base	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2026q4_cad_usd	2026Q4 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2026q4_blue_moon	2026Q4 / base	25.55 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_cad_commitment, base_2026q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2026q4_raw_prepay	2026Q4 / base	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2026q4_strategic_cash	2026Q4 / base	50.55 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_blue_moon, base_2026q4_raw_prepay, base_2026q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2026q4_business_investment	2026Q4 / base	75.55 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_capex, base_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2026q4_cash_after_investing	2026Q4 / base	-94.09 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2026q4_preferred_funding	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight base_2026q4_funding_weight	2026Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2026q4_new_pik_basis	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_preferred_funding, base_2026q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2026q4_pik_basis	2026Q4 / base	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_preferred_ending, base_2026q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2026q4_quarter_year	2026Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2026q4_preferred_pik	2026Q4 / base	2.76 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2026q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2026q4_preferred_ending	2026Q4 / base	203.33 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_preferred_ending, base_2026q4_preferred_funding, base_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2026q4_cash_after_funding	2026Q4 / base	-94.09 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_after_investing, base_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2027q1_demand_index	2027Q1 / base	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2027q1_legacy_demand	2027Q1 / base	76.36 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q1_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2027q1_metal_pass	2027Q1 / base	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2027q1_german_revenue	2027Q1 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2027q1_core_revenue	2027Q1 / base	88.36 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_demand, base_2027q1_metal_pass, base_2027q1_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2027q1_stockpile_revenue	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / base	88.36 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q1_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2027q1_core_margin	2027Q1 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2027q1_legacy_gross	2027Q1 / base	19.09 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_legacy_demand, base_2027q1_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q1 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2027q1_metal_cost	2027Q1 / base	10.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_metal_pass, base_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2027q1_price_gross	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_metal_pass, base_2027q1_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2027q1_german_margin	2027Q1 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2027q1_german_gross	2027Q1 / base	0.36 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_german_revenue, base_2027q1_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2027q1_stock_margin	2027Q1 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2027q1_stockpile_gross	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q1_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2027q1_gross_profit	2027Q1 / base	19.45 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_gross, base_2027q1_price_gross, base_2027q1_german_gross, base_2027q1_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / base	2.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / base	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2027q1_cash_bonus	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2027q1_cash_opex	2027Q1 / base	14.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / base	19.60 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_opex, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / base	-0.15 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_opex).
Cash interest income base_2027q1_cash_interest_income	2027Q1 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q1 / base	7.25 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / base	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2027q1_cash_interest	2027Q1 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2027q1_inventory_other_cash	2027Q1 / base	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q1 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q1 / base	5.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_metal_pass, base_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / base	29.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_cash_interest, base_2027q1_inventory_other_cash, base_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / base	-21.95 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / base	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2027q1_german_eur_amount	2027Q1 / base	2.12 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2027q1_eur_usd	2027Q1 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2027q1_german_price	2027Q1 / base	2.34 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_german_eur_amount, base_2027q1_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2027q1_cad_commitment	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2027q1_cad_usd	2027Q1 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2027q1_blue_moon	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_cad_commitment, base_2027q1_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2027q1_raw_prepay	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2027q1_strategic_cash	2027Q1 / base	2.34 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_blue_moon, base_2027q1_raw_prepay, base_2027q1_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2027q1_business_investment	2027Q1 / base	42.34 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q1_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2027q1_cash_after_investing	2027Q1 / base	-64.29 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2027q1_preferred_funding	2027Q1 / base	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight base_2027q1_funding_weight	2027Q1 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2027q1_new_pik_basis	2027Q1 / base	12.50 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_preferred_funding, base_2027q1_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2027q1_pik_basis	2027Q1 / base	215.83 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_preferred_ending, base_2027q1_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2027q1_quarter_year	2027Q1 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2027q1_preferred_pik	2027Q1 / base	2.97 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2027q1_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2027q1_preferred_ending	2027Q1 / base	256.30 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_preferred_ending, base_2027q1_preferred_funding, base_2027q1_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2027q1_cash_after_funding	2027Q1 / base	-14.29 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investing, base_2027q1_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2027q2_demand_index	2027Q2 / base	122.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2027q2_legacy_demand	2027Q2 / base	81.01 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q2_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2027q2_metal_pass	2027Q2 / base	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2027q2_german_revenue	2027Q2 / base	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2027q2_core_revenue	2027Q2 / base	97.01 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_demand, base_2027q2_metal_pass, base_2027q2_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2027q2_stockpile_revenue	2027Q2 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / base	102.01 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q2_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2027q2_core_margin	2027Q2 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2027q2_legacy_gross	2027Q2 / base	20.25 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_legacy_demand, base_2027q2_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q2 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2027q2_metal_cost	2027Q2 / base	8.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_metal_pass, base_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2027q2_price_gross	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_metal_pass, base_2027q2_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2027q2_german_margin	2027Q2 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2027q2_german_gross	2027Q2 / base	1.44 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_german_revenue, base_2027q2_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2027q2_stock_margin	2027Q2 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2027q2_stockpile_gross	2027Q2 / base	0.60 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q2_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2027q2_gross_profit	2027Q2 / base	22.29 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_gross, base_2027q2_price_gross, base_2027q2_german_gross, base_2027q2_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / base	2.60 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / base	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2027q2_cash_bonus	2027Q2 / base	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2027q2_cash_opex	2027Q2 / base	15.30 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / base	24.40 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_opex, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / base	-2.11 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_opex).
Cash interest income base_2027q2_cash_interest_income	2027Q2 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q2 / base	5.99 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / base	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2027q2_cash_interest	2027Q2 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2027q2_inventory_other_cash	2027Q2 / base	24.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q2 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q2 / base	4.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_metal_pass, base_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / base	31.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_cash_interest, base_2027q2_inventory_other_cash, base_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / base	-25.71 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / base	45.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2027q2_german_eur_amount	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2027q2_eur_usd	2027Q2 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2027q2_german_price	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_german_eur_amount, base_2027q2_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2027q2_cad_commitment	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2027q2_cad_usd	2027Q2 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2027q2_blue_moon	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_cad_commitment, base_2027q2_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2027q2_raw_prepay	2027Q2 / base	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2027q2_strategic_cash	2027Q2 / base	25.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_blue_moon, base_2027q2_raw_prepay, base_2027q2_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2027q2_business_investment	2027Q2 / base	70.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q2_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2027q2_cash_after_investing	2027Q2 / base	-95.71 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2027q2_preferred_funding	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight base_2027q2_funding_weight	2027Q2 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2027q2_new_pik_basis	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_preferred_funding, base_2027q2_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2027q2_pik_basis	2027Q2 / base	256.30 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_ending, base_2027q2_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2027q2_quarter_year	2027Q2 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2027q2_preferred_pik	2027Q2 / base	3.52 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2027q2_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2027q2_preferred_ending	2027Q2 / base	259.82 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_ending, base_2027q2_preferred_funding, base_2027q2_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2027q2_cash_after_funding	2027Q2 / base	-95.71 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_after_investing, base_2027q2_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2027q3_demand_index	2027Q3 / base	128.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2027q3_legacy_demand	2027Q3 / base	84.99 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2027q3_metal_pass	2027Q3 / base	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2027q3_german_revenue	2027Q3 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2027q3_core_revenue	2027Q3 / base	100.99 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_demand, base_2027q3_metal_pass, base_2027q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2027q3_stockpile_revenue	2027Q3 / base	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / base	115.99 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2027q3_core_margin	2027Q3 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2027q3_legacy_gross	2027Q3 / base	21.25 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_legacy_demand, base_2027q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q3 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2027q3_metal_cost	2027Q3 / base	7.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_metal_pass, base_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2027q3_price_gross	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_metal_pass, base_2027q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2027q3_german_margin	2027Q3 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2027q3_german_gross	2027Q3 / base	1.62 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_german_revenue, base_2027q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2027q3_stock_margin	2027Q3 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2027q3_stockpile_gross	2027Q3 / base	1.80 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2027q3_gross_profit	2027Q3 / base	24.67 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_gross, base_2027q3_price_gross, base_2027q3_german_gross, base_2027q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / base	2.80 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / base	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2027q3_cash_bonus	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2027q3_cash_opex	2027Q3 / base	16.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / base	23.20 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_opex, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / base	1.47 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_opex).
Cash interest income base_2027q3_cash_interest_income	2027Q3 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q3 / base	10.27 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / base	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2027q3_cash_interest	2027Q3 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2027q3_inventory_other_cash	2027Q3 / base	27.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q3 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q3 / base	3.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_metal_pass, base_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / base	34.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_cash_interest, base_2027q3_inventory_other_cash, base_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / base	-24.43 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / base	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2027q3_german_eur_amount	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2027q3_eur_usd	2027Q3 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2027q3_german_price	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_german_eur_amount, base_2027q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2027q3_cad_commitment	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2027q3_cad_usd	2027Q3 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2027q3_blue_moon	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_cad_commitment, base_2027q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2027q3_raw_prepay	2027Q3 / base	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2027q3_strategic_cash	2027Q3 / base	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_blue_moon, base_2027q3_raw_prepay, base_2027q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2027q3_business_investment	2027Q3 / base	48.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2027q3_cash_after_investing	2027Q3 / base	-72.43 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2027q3_preferred_funding	2027Q3 / base	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight base_2027q3_funding_weight	2027Q3 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2027q3_new_pik_basis	2027Q3 / base	12.50 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_preferred_funding, base_2027q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2027q3_pik_basis	2027Q3 / base	272.32 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_preferred_ending, base_2027q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2027q3_quarter_year	2027Q3 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2027q3_preferred_pik	2027Q3 / base	3.74 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2027q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2027q3_preferred_ending	2027Q3 / base	313.57 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_preferred_ending, base_2027q3_preferred_funding, base_2027q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2027q3_cash_after_funding	2027Q3 / base	-22.43 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_after_investing, base_2027q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 base_2027q4_demand_index	2027Q4 / base	133.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices base_2027q4_legacy_demand	2027Q4 / base	88.31 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, base_2027q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through base_2027q4_metal_pass	2027Q4 / base	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue base_2027q4_german_revenue	2027Q4 / base	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue base_2027q4_core_revenue	2027Q4 / base	104.31 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_demand, base_2027q4_metal_pass, base_2027q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries base_2027q4_stockpile_revenue	2027Q4 / base	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue base_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / base	129.31 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_core_revenue, base_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin base_2027q4_core_margin	2027Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit base_2027q4_legacy_gross	2027Q4 / base	22.08 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_legacy_demand, base_2027q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through base_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q4 / base	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost base_2027q4_metal_cost	2027Q4 / base	6.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_metal_pass, base_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit base_2027q4_price_gross	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_metal_pass, base_2027q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin base_2027q4_german_margin	2027Q4 / base	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution base_2027q4_german_gross	2027Q4 / base	1.80 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_german_revenue, base_2027q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin base_2027q4_stock_margin	2027Q4 / base	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution base_2027q4_stockpile_gross	2027Q4 / base	3.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy base_2027q4_gross_profit	2027Q4 / base	26.88 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_gross, base_2027q4_price_gross, base_2027q4_german_gross, base_2027q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC base_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / base	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A base_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / base	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance base_2027q4_cash_bonus	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense base_2027q4_cash_opex	2027Q4 / base	17.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A base_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / base	25.00 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_opex, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / base	1.88 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_opex).
Cash interest income base_2027q4_cash_interest_income	2027Q4 / base	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest base_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q4 / base	11.38 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax base_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / base	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest base_2027q4_cash_interest	2027Q4 / base	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use base_2027q4_inventory_other_cash	2027Q4 / base	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share base_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q4 / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding base_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q4 / base	3.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_metal_pass, base_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital base_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / base	37.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_cash_interest, base_2027q4_inventory_other_cash, base_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / base	-26.32 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash base_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / base	55.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX base_2027q4_german_eur_amount	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion base_2027q4_eur_usd	2027Q4 / base	110.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD base_2027q4_german_price	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_german_eur_amount, base_2027q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX base_2027q4_cad_commitment	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption base_2027q4_cad_usd	2027Q4 / base	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash base_2027q4_blue_moon	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_cad_commitment, base_2027q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments base_2027q4_raw_prepay	2027Q4 / base	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash base_2027q4_strategic_cash	2027Q4 / base	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_blue_moon, base_2027q4_raw_prepay, base_2027q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment base_2027q4_business_investment	2027Q4 / base	53.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_capex, base_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing base_2027q4_cash_after_investing	2027Q4 / base	-79.32 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts base_2027q4_preferred_funding	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight base_2027q4_funding_weight	2027Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter base_2027q4_new_pik_basis	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_preferred_funding, base_2027q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK base_2027q4_pik_basis	2027Q4 / base	313.57 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_preferred_ending, base_2027q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction base_2027q4_quarter_year	2027Q4 / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual base_2027q4_preferred_pik	2027Q4 / base	4.31 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, base_2027q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments base_2027q4_preferred_ending	2027Q4 / base	317.88 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_preferred_ending, base_2027q4_preferred_funding, base_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing base_2027q4_cash_after_funding	2027Q4 / base	-79.32 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_after_investing, base_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Total revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / base	283.17 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) base_fy2026_core_revenue	FY2026 / base	283.17 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, base_2026q3_core_revenue, base_2026q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) base_fy2026_stockpile_revenue	FY2026 / base	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_stockpile_revenue, base_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, base_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit	FY2026 / base	64.15 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / base	-3.87 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / base	-39.88 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) base_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / base	43.14 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) base_fy2026_strategic_cash	FY2026 / base	51.98 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_cash, base_2026q3_strategic_cash, base_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_investing	FY2026 / base	-135.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, base_2026q3_cash_after_investing, base_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) base_fy2026_preferred_funding	FY2026 / base	200.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_funding, base_2026q3_preferred_funding, base_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) base_fy2026_preferred_pik	FY2026 / base	3.33 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_pik, base_2026q3_preferred_pik, base_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_funding	FY2026 / base	65.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, base_2026q3_cash_after_funding, base_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Total revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / base	435.68 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) base_fy2027_core_revenue	FY2027 / base	390.68 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_core_revenue, base_2027q2_core_revenue, base_2027q3_core_revenue, base_2027q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) base_fy2027_stockpile_revenue	FY2027 / base	45.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, base_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit	FY2027 / base	93.29 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / base	1.09 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / base	-98.41 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) base_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / base	190.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) base_fy2027_strategic_cash	FY2027 / base	23.34 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_strategic_cash, base_2027q2_strategic_cash, base_2027q3_strategic_cash, base_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_investing	FY2027 / base	-311.75 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investing, base_2027q2_cash_after_investing, base_2027q3_cash_after_investing, base_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) base_fy2027_preferred_funding	FY2027 / base	100.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_funding, base_2027q2_preferred_funding, base_2027q3_preferred_funding, base_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) base_fy2027_preferred_pik	FY2027 / base	14.55 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_pik, base_2027q2_preferred_pik, base_2027q3_preferred_pik, base_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_funding	FY2027 / base	-211.75 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_funding, base_2027q2_cash_after_funding, base_2027q3_cash_after_funding, base_2027q4_cash_after_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2026q3_demand_index	2026Q3 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2026q3_legacy_demand	2026Q3 / upside	71.71 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2026q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2026q3_metal_pass	2026Q3 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2026q3_german_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2026q3_core_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	76.71 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_demand, upside_2026q3_metal_pass, upside_2026q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	76.71 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2026q3_core_margin	2026Q3 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2026q3_legacy_gross	2026Q3 / upside	19.36 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_legacy_demand, upside_2026q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q3 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2026q3_metal_cost	2026Q3 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_metal_pass, upside_2026q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2026q3_price_gross	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_metal_pass, upside_2026q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2026q3_german_margin	2026Q3 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2026q3_german_gross	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_german_revenue, upside_2026q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2026q3_stock_margin	2026Q3 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2026q3_stockpile_gross	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, upside_2026q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2026q3_gross_profit	2026Q3 / upside	19.36 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_gross, upside_2026q3_price_gross, upside_2026q3_german_gross, upside_2026q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2026q3_cash_bonus	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2026q3_cash_opex	2026Q3 / upside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / upside	16.00 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_opex, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / upside	3.36 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2026q3_cash_interest_income	2026Q3 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q3 / upside	9.36 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2026q3_cash_interest	2026Q3 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2026q3_inventory_other_cash	2026Q3 / upside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q3 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q3 / upside	2.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_metal_pass, upside_2026q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2026q3_cash_uses	2026Q3 / upside	19.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_inventory_other_cash, upside_2026q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / upside	-10.34 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / upside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2026q3_german_eur_amount	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2026q3_eur_usd	2026Q3 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2026q3_german_price	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_german_eur_amount, upside_2026q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2026q3_cad_commitment	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2026q3_cad_usd	2026Q3 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2026q3_blue_moon	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_cad_commitment, upside_2026q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2026q3_raw_prepay	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2026q3_strategic_cash	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_blue_moon, upside_2026q3_raw_prepay, upside_2026q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2026q3_business_investment	2026Q3 / upside	15.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing	2026Q3 / upside	-25.34 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2026q3_preferred_funding	2026Q3 / upside	200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
Opening preferred claim upside_2026q3_preferred_opening	2026Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding quarter weight upside_2026q3_funding_weight	2026Q3 / upside	20.9% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2026q3_new_pik_basis	2026Q3 / upside	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_preferred_funding, upside_2026q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2026q3_pik_basis	2026Q3 / upside	41.76 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_preferred_opening, upside_2026q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2026q3_quarter_year	2026Q3 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2026q3_preferred_pik	2026Q3 / upside	0.57 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2026q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2026q3_preferred_ending	2026Q3 / upside	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_preferred_opening, upside_2026q3_preferred_funding, upside_2026q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding	2026Q3 / upside	174.66 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2026q4_demand_index	2026Q4 / upside	115.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2026q4_legacy_demand	2026Q4 / upside	76.36 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2026q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2026q4_metal_pass	2026Q4 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2026q4_german_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2026q4_core_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	81.36 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_demand, upside_2026q4_metal_pass, upside_2026q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	81.36 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_core_revenue, upside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2026q4_core_margin	2026Q4 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2026q4_legacy_gross	2026Q4 / upside	20.62 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_legacy_demand, upside_2026q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio	2026Q4 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2026q4_metal_cost	2026Q4 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_metal_pass, upside_2026q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2026q4_price_gross	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_metal_pass, upside_2026q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2026q4_german_margin	2026Q4 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2026q4_german_gross	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_german_revenue, upside_2026q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2026q4_stock_margin	2026Q4 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2026q4_stockpile_gross	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue, upside_2026q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2026q4_gross_profit	2026Q4 / upside	20.62 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_gross, upside_2026q4_price_gross, upside_2026q4_german_gross, upside_2026q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / upside	2.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / upside	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2026q4_cash_bonus	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2026q4_cash_opex	2026Q4 / upside	13.10 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / upside	17.80 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_opex, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / upside	2.82 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2026q4_cash_interest_income	2026Q4 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings	2026Q4 / upside	9.52 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / upside	2.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2026q4_cash_interest	2026Q4 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2026q4_inventory_other_cash	2026Q4 / upside	18.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction	2026Q4 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash	2026Q4 / upside	2.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_metal_pass, upside_2026q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2026q4_cash_uses	2026Q4 / upside	23.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_inventory_other_cash, upside_2026q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / upside	-13.68 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / upside	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2026q4_german_eur_amount	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2026q4_eur_usd	2026Q4 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2026q4_german_price	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_german_eur_amount, upside_2026q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2026q4_cad_commitment	2026Q4 / upside	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2026q4_cad_usd	2026Q4 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2026q4_blue_moon	2026Q4 / upside	25.55 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_cad_commitment, upside_2026q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2026q4_raw_prepay	2026Q4 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2026q4_strategic_cash	2026Q4 / upside	50.55 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_blue_moon, upside_2026q4_raw_prepay, upside_2026q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2026q4_business_investment	2026Q4 / upside	80.55 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_capex, upside_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing	2026Q4 / upside	-94.23 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2026q4_preferred_funding	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight upside_2026q4_funding_weight	2026Q4 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2026q4_new_pik_basis	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_preferred_funding, upside_2026q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2026q4_pik_basis	2026Q4 / upside	200.57 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_preferred_ending, upside_2026q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2026q4_quarter_year	2026Q4 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2026q4_preferred_pik	2026Q4 / upside	2.76 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2026q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2026q4_preferred_ending	2026Q4 / upside	203.33 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_preferred_ending, upside_2026q4_preferred_funding, upside_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding	2026Q4 / upside	-94.23 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2027q1_demand_index	2027Q1 / upside	125.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2027q1_legacy_demand	2027Q1 / upside	83.00 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q1_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2027q1_metal_pass	2027Q1 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2027q1_german_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2027q1_core_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	90.00 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_demand, upside_2027q1_metal_pass, upside_2027q1_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	95.00 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2027q1_core_margin	2027Q1 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2027q1_legacy_gross	2027Q1 / upside	22.41 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_legacy_demand, upside_2027q1_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q1 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2027q1_metal_cost	2027Q1 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_metal_pass, upside_2027q1_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2027q1_price_gross	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_metal_pass, upside_2027q1_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2027q1_german_margin	2027Q1 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2027q1_german_gross	2027Q1 / upside	0.54 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_german_revenue, upside_2027q1_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2027q1_stock_margin	2027Q1 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2027q1_stockpile_gross	2027Q1 / upside	0.60 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q1_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2027q1_gross_profit	2027Q1 / upside	23.55 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_gross, upside_2027q1_price_gross, upside_2027q1_german_gross, upside_2027q1_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / upside	2.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2027q1_cash_bonus	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2027q1_cash_opex	2027Q1 / upside	14.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / upside	19.60 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_opex, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / upside	3.95 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2027q1_cash_interest_income	2027Q1 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q1 / upside	11.35 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2027q1_cash_interest	2027Q1 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2027q1_inventory_other_cash	2027Q1 / upside	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q1 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q1 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_metal_pass, upside_2027q1_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2027q1_cash_uses	2027Q1 / upside	26.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_inventory_other_cash, upside_2027q1_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / upside	-14.85 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / upside	45.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q1_german_eur_amount	2027Q1 / upside	-5.88 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2027q1_eur_usd	2027Q1 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2027q1_german_price	2027Q1 / upside	-6.35 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_german_eur_amount, upside_2027q1_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q1_cad_commitment	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2027q1_cad_usd	2027Q1 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2027q1_blue_moon	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_cad_commitment, upside_2027q1_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2027q1_raw_prepay	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2027q1_strategic_cash	2027Q1 / upside	-6.35 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_blue_moon, upside_2027q1_raw_prepay, upside_2027q1_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2027q1_business_investment	2027Q1 / upside	38.66 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q1_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing	2027Q1 / upside	-53.50 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2027q1_preferred_funding	2027Q1 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight upside_2027q1_funding_weight	2027Q1 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2027q1_new_pik_basis	2027Q1 / upside	12.50 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_preferred_funding, upside_2027q1_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2027q1_pik_basis	2027Q1 / upside	215.83 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_preferred_ending, upside_2027q1_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2027q1_quarter_year	2027Q1 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2027q1_preferred_pik	2027Q1 / upside	2.97 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2027q1_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2027q1_preferred_ending	2027Q1 / upside	256.30 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_preferred_ending, upside_2027q1_preferred_funding, upside_2027q1_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding	2027Q1 / upside	-3.50 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q1_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2027q2_demand_index	2027Q2 / upside	135.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2027q2_legacy_demand	2027Q2 / upside	89.64 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2027q2_metal_pass	2027Q2 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2027q2_german_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2027q2_core_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	103.64 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_demand, upside_2027q2_metal_pass, upside_2027q2_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	118.64 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2027q2_core_margin	2027Q2 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2027q2_legacy_gross	2027Q2 / upside	24.20 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_legacy_demand, upside_2027q2_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q2 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2027q2_metal_cost	2027Q2 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_metal_pass, upside_2027q2_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2027q2_price_gross	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_metal_pass, upside_2027q2_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2027q2_german_margin	2027Q2 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2027q2_german_gross	2027Q2 / upside	1.80 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_german_revenue, upside_2027q2_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2027q2_stock_margin	2027Q2 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2027q2_stockpile_gross	2027Q2 / upside	1.80 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q2_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2027q2_gross_profit	2027Q2 / upside	27.80 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_gross, upside_2027q2_price_gross, upside_2027q2_german_gross, upside_2027q2_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / upside	2.60 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / upside	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2027q2_cash_bonus	2027Q2 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2027q2_cash_opex	2027Q2 / upside	15.30 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / upside	24.40 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_opex, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / upside	3.40 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2027q2_cash_interest_income	2027Q2 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q2 / upside	11.50 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / upside	3.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2027q2_cash_interest	2027Q2 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2027q2_inventory_other_cash	2027Q2 / upside	24.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q2 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q2 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_metal_pass, upside_2027q2_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2027q2_cash_uses	2027Q2 / upside	29.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_inventory_other_cash, upside_2027q2_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / upside	-18.20 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / upside	55.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q2_german_eur_amount	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2027q2_eur_usd	2027Q2 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2027q2_german_price	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_german_eur_amount, upside_2027q2_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q2_cad_commitment	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2027q2_cad_usd	2027Q2 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2027q2_blue_moon	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_cad_commitment, upside_2027q2_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2027q2_raw_prepay	2027Q2 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2027q2_strategic_cash	2027Q2 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_blue_moon, upside_2027q2_raw_prepay, upside_2027q2_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2027q2_business_investment	2027Q2 / upside	80.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q2_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing	2027Q2 / upside	-98.20 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2027q2_preferred_funding	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight upside_2027q2_funding_weight	2027Q2 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2027q2_new_pik_basis	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_preferred_funding, upside_2027q2_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2027q2_pik_basis	2027Q2 / upside	256.30 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_ending, upside_2027q2_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2027q2_quarter_year	2027Q2 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2027q2_preferred_pik	2027Q2 / upside	3.52 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2027q2_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2027q2_preferred_ending	2027Q2 / upside	259.82 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_ending, upside_2027q2_preferred_funding, upside_2027q2_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding	2027Q2 / upside	-98.20 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q2_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2027q3_demand_index	2027Q3 / upside	145.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2027q3_legacy_demand	2027Q3 / upside	96.28 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2027q3_metal_pass	2027Q3 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2027q3_german_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2027q3_core_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	111.28 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_demand, upside_2027q3_metal_pass, upside_2027q3_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	136.28 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2027q3_core_margin	2027Q3 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2027q3_legacy_gross	2027Q3 / upside	26.00 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_legacy_demand, upside_2027q3_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q3 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2027q3_metal_cost	2027Q3 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_metal_pass, upside_2027q3_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2027q3_price_gross	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_metal_pass, upside_2027q3_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2027q3_german_margin	2027Q3 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2027q3_german_gross	2027Q3 / upside	2.16 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_german_revenue, upside_2027q3_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2027q3_stock_margin	2027Q3 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2027q3_stockpile_gross	2027Q3 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q3_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2027q3_gross_profit	2027Q3 / upside	31.16 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_gross, upside_2027q3_price_gross, upside_2027q3_german_gross, upside_2027q3_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / upside	2.80 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2027q3_cash_bonus	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2027q3_cash_opex	2027Q3 / upside	16.40 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / upside	23.20 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_opex, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / upside	7.96 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2027q3_cash_interest_income	2027Q3 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q3 / upside	16.76 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / upside	4.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2027q3_cash_interest	2027Q3 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2027q3_inventory_other_cash	2027Q3 / upside	27.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q3 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q3 / upside	1.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_metal_pass, upside_2027q3_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2027q3_cash_uses	2027Q3 / upside	32.70 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_inventory_other_cash, upside_2027q3_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / upside	-15.94 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / upside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q3_german_eur_amount	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2027q3_eur_usd	2027Q3 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2027q3_german_price	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_german_eur_amount, upside_2027q3_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q3_cad_commitment	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2027q3_cad_usd	2027Q3 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2027q3_blue_moon	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_cad_commitment, upside_2027q3_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2027q3_raw_prepay	2027Q3 / upside	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2027q3_strategic_cash	2027Q3 / upside	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_blue_moon, upside_2027q3_raw_prepay, upside_2027q3_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2027q3_business_investment	2027Q3 / upside	58.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q3_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing	2027Q3 / upside	-73.94 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2027q3_preferred_funding	2027Q3 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight upside_2027q3_funding_weight	2027Q3 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2027q3_new_pik_basis	2027Q3 / upside	12.50 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_preferred_funding, upside_2027q3_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2027q3_pik_basis	2027Q3 / upside	272.32 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_preferred_ending, upside_2027q3_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2027q3_quarter_year	2027Q3 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2027q3_preferred_pik	2027Q3 / upside	3.74 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2027q3_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2027q3_preferred_ending	2027Q3 / upside	313.57 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_preferred_ending, upside_2027q3_preferred_funding, upside_2027q3_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding	2027Q3 / upside	-23.94 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q3_preferred_funding).
Net volume and mix versus Q2 upside_2027q4_demand_index	2027Q4 / upside	155.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy revenue at reference metal prices upside_2027q4_legacy_demand	2027Q4 / upside	102.92 USD_millions	derived: Demand separated from incremental metal-price pass-through. Formula: multiply(q2_revenue, upside_2027q4_demand_index).
Incremental raw-material price pass-through upside_2027q4_metal_pass	2027Q4 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional acquired German revenue upside_2027q4_german_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk acquired-period contribution only after assumed closing; transaction remains conditional.
Core and acquired revenue upside_2027q4_core_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	119.92 USD_millions	derived: Current manufacturing and conditional acquired operations; stockpile is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_demand, upside_2027q4_metal_pass, upside_2027q4_german_revenue).
Accepted incremental stockpile deliveries upside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Supply-qualified delivery assumption, not pro-rata recognition of the contract ceiling or minimum.
Total revenue upside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	159.92 USD_millions	derived: No recognition of preferred funding as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Core gross margin upside_2027q4_core_margin	2027Q4 / upside	27.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy gross profit upside_2027q4_legacy_gross	2027Q4 / upside	27.79 USD_millions	derived: Independent operating-margin scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_legacy_demand, upside_2027q4_core_margin).
Input-cost share of pass-through upside_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio	2027Q4 / upside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Matched input price cost upside_2027q4_metal_cost	2027Q4 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	derived: At 100% pass-through, higher commodity prices do not create gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_metal_pass, upside_2027q4_pass_cost_ratio).
Incremental price pass-through gross profit upside_2027q4_price_gross	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Mismatch sensitivity is explicit. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_metal_pass, upside_2027q4_metal_cost).
Acquired gross margin upside_2027q4_german_margin	2027Q4 / upside	18.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
German gross contribution upside_2027q4_german_gross	2027Q4 / upside	2.52 USD_millions	derived: Unverified post-close margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_german_revenue, upside_2027q4_german_margin).
Stockpile gross margin upside_2027q4_stock_margin	2027Q4 / upside	12.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stockpile gross contribution upside_2027q4_stockpile_gross	2027Q4 / upside	4.80 USD_millions	derived: Procured input cost is reflected in margin; no unsupported floor-price assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q4_stock_margin).
Gross profit proxy upside_2027q4_gross_profit	2027Q4 / upside	35.11 USD_millions	derived: Company forecasts are not supplied for the new program. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_gross, upside_2027q4_price_gross, upside_2027q4_german_gross, upside_2027q4_stockpile_gross).
SBC upside_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / upside	3.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating D&A upside_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / upside	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Performance cash-bonus allowance upside_2027q4_cash_bonus	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Maximum September award shown as a Q2 2027 cash/expense sensitivity, conditional on employment and measurement criteria; not SBC.
Cash corporate R&D and selling expense upside_2027q4_cash_opex	2027Q4 / upside	17.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash overhead SBC and D&A upside_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	derived: No repeat of H1 IPO SBC as if recurring every quarter. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_opex, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_cash_bonus).
Operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / upside	10.11 USD_millions	derived: Preferred PIK is below operating economics, not operating expense. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_opex).
Cash interest income upside_2027q4_cash_interest_income	2027Q4 / upside	2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating earnings plus noncash and interest upside_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings	2027Q4 / upside	19.61 USD_millions	derived: No debt forgiveness or financing gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_cash_interest_income).
Cash tax upside_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / upside	4.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash debt interest upside_2027q4_cash_interest	2027Q4 / upside	0.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory and other working-capital use upside_2027q4_inventory_other_cash	2027Q4 / upside	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Price-related inventory funding share upside_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction	2027Q4 / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Additional price-related inventory funding upside_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash	2027Q4 / upside	1.50 USD_millions	derived: Commodity inflation can tie up cash despite matched gross profit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_metal_pass, upside_2027q4_inventory_price_fraction).
Tax interest and working capital upside_2027q4_cash_uses	2027Q4 / upside	36.20 USD_millions	derived: Project input prepayments are shown separately in strategic cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_inventory_other_cash, upside_2027q4_pass_inventory_cash).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / upside	-16.59 USD_millions	derived: No current-period preferred cash dividend. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_operating_cash_earnings, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
External PP&E domestic and controlled-JV cash upside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / upside	65.00 USD_millions	assumption: Consolidated external investment includes domestic expansion and controlled JV plant; internal capital contributions are not counted again.
German net price sensitivity, EUR millions represented at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q4_german_eur_amount	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk working capital and net pension assumptions in contractual price formula; signed amount can be negative.
USD per EUR conversion upside_2027q4_eur_usd	2027Q4 / upside	108.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Conditional German closing cash in USD upside_2027q4_german_price	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Scenario only; metal inventory and pension measurement can materially change final consideration. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_german_eur_amount, upside_2027q4_eur_usd).
CAD35M investment at 1:1 before FX upside_2027q4_cad_commitment	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Binding 3.5M-unit commitment at CAD10, within 45 days of September 14; expected in Q4 fiscal 2026.
USD per CAD assumption upside_2027q4_cad_usd	2027Q4 / upside	73.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Blue Moon minority investment cash upside_2027q4_blue_moon	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: No consolidated Blue Moon sales or market-value gains. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_cad_commitment, upside_2027q4_cad_usd).
Net new raw-material prepayments upside_2027q4_raw_prepay	2027Q4 / upside	-2.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk first and milestone-conditioned second $25M funding; later negative amounts are consumption/settlement credits, not new revenue.
Minority prepayment and acquisition cash upside_2027q4_strategic_cash	2027Q4 / upside	-2.00 USD_millions	derived: Prepaid input consumption cash credits avoid charging both historical prepayment and subsequent COGS cash without adjustment. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_blue_moon, upside_2027q4_raw_prepay, upside_2027q4_german_price).
PP&E and strategic deployment upside_2027q4_business_investment	2027Q4 / upside	63.00 USD_millions	derived: No initial government receipt netted into capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_capex, upside_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing	2027Q4 / upside	-79.59 USD_millions	derived: Before preferred funding and other capital allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_business_investment).
Preferred financing receipts upside_2027q4_preferred_funding	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Initial $200M received September 14; any later $50M receipt is conditional and respects six-month tranche availability.
New funding quarter weight upside_2027q4_funding_weight	2027Q4 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
New funding weighted for partial quarter upside_2027q4_new_pik_basis	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Initial 19-day approximate accrual; later tranches assumed late-quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_preferred_funding, upside_2027q4_funding_weight).
Weighted preferred claim for PIK upside_2027q4_pik_basis	2027Q4 / upside	313.57 USD_millions	derived: Existing balance includes prior PIK compounding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_preferred_ending, upside_2027q4_new_pik_basis).
Quarter-year fraction upside_2027q4_quarter_year	2027Q4 / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Preferred economic PIK accrual upside_2027q4_preferred_pik	2027Q4 / upside	4.31 USD_millions	derived: Noncash senior claim; no deduction from current-period cash. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_pik_basis, preferred_rate, upside_2027q4_quarter_year).
Ending preferred claim before warrant adjustments upside_2027q4_preferred_ending	2027Q4 / upside	317.88 USD_millions	derived: Stock balance, not an annual flow; ignores warrant-linked liquidation preference reductions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_preferred_ending, upside_2027q4_preferred_funding, upside_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred financing upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding	2027Q4 / upside	-79.59 USD_millions	derived: Period flow only; no claim that preferred cash is freely distributable. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Total revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / upside	280.48 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_core_revenue	FY2026 / upside	280.48 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_core_revenue, upside_2026q3_core_revenue, upside_2026q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) upside_fy2026_stockpile_revenue	FY2026 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_stockpile_revenue, upside_2026q3_stockpile_revenue, upside_2026q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit	FY2026 / upside	68.44 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / upside	0.42 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / upside	-31.59 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) upside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / upside	48.14 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) upside_fy2026_strategic_cash	FY2026 / upside	51.98 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_strategic_cash, upside_2026q3_strategic_cash, upside_2026q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_investing	FY2026 / upside	-131.71 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) upside_fy2026_preferred_funding	FY2026 / upside	200.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_funding, upside_2026q3_preferred_funding, upside_2026q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) upside_fy2026_preferred_pik	FY2026 / upside	3.33 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_pik, upside_2026q3_preferred_pik, upside_2026q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_funding	FY2026 / upside	68.29 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2026q4_cash_after_funding).
Total revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / upside	509.85 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Core and acquired component revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_core_revenue	FY2027 / upside	424.85 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_core_revenue, upside_2027q2_core_revenue, upside_2027q3_core_revenue, upside_2027q4_core_revenue).
Accepted stockpile deliveries ($M) upside_fy2027_stockpile_revenue	FY2027 / upside	85.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q2_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q3_stockpile_revenue, upside_2027q4_stockpile_revenue).
Gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit	FY2027 / upside	117.62 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / upside	25.42 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / upside	-65.58 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Net cash PP&E including controlled JV ($M) upside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / upside	225.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
Prepayments minority/acquisition cash ($M) upside_fy2027_strategic_cash	FY2027 / upside	14.66 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_strategic_cash, upside_2027q2_strategic_cash, upside_2027q3_strategic_cash, upside_2027q4_strategic_cash).
Cash after business investing ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_investing	FY2027 / upside	-305.24 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Preferred funding cash ($M) upside_fy2027_preferred_funding	FY2027 / upside	100.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_funding, upside_2027q2_preferred_funding, upside_2027q3_preferred_funding, upside_2027q4_preferred_funding).
Preferred PIK economic accrual ($M) upside_fy2027_preferred_pik	FY2027 / upside	14.55 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_pik, upside_2027q2_preferred_pik, upside_2027q3_preferred_pik, upside_2027q4_preferred_pik).
Cash after preferred funding ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_funding	FY2027 / upside	-205.24 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q2_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q3_cash_after_funding, upside_2027q4_cash_after_funding).

Model boundaries

September 14 initial preferred funding of $200M was received. Remaining $250M is conditional, in up to $50M tranches available at six-month intervals; congressional authorization, appropriations and other conditions remain relevant.
Preferred dividends accrue at 5.5%, compound quarterly and are payable in kind. Warrants cover up to 19.9% post-transaction ownership. Redemption and warrant-linked reductions require a full ownership waterfall; this model tracks PIK before those adjustments, not common equity value.
The $2B stockpile ceiling is not backlog recognized as revenue. The $150M minimum is funded commitment over a five-year ordering period, subject to accepted delivery orders; materials may be delivered within 48 months of each order. Desk sales begin only after assumed incremental supply.
September German asset acquisition remains conditional with Q1 calendar 2027 closing expected. The price includes negative EUR18M, pension assets less obligations, EUR1M restructuring prepayment and working-capital adjustment against EUR3.875M. No fixed final purchase price or receipt is asserted.
Metal-price pass-through can inflate revenue and inventory funding without equal margin growth. Q2 management attributed about 55% of revenue growth to net demand and the balance to raw material pricing; this model independently tests incremental pass-through.
The controlled Springer JV is consolidated in the forward scenario, so internal capital contributions are eliminated; only modeled external plant cash is counted as capex. Separate raw-material prepayments and Blue Moon minority shares are additional cash deployment.
Blue Moon CAD35M investment is a binding commitment; modeled USD settlement depends on assumed FX. Government money is earmarked for project purposes and does not become free cash for common owners.
H1 capex was reported net of government capital grants. Historical supplement corrects fiscal labels, adds reported July cash and sources net-capex treatment; missing historical quarters remain unavailable, not zero.
Forecast excludes precise preferred redemption, debt/lease principal, equity-award withholding, full acquisition working-capital settlement and discretionary investments. Cash after funding is a period cash-flow proxy before those claims, not ending unrestricted cash.
Fiscal quarter dates use the company's 52/53-week calendar convention, with future dates estimated. All delivery, inventory, investment and German closing cases are desk assumptions; no full-year earnings guidance is asserted.

A larger tungsten program with staged capital and delivery conditions

Research reviewed 2026-09-28

Can funded supply-chain expansion produce durable margins after working capital and senior financing claims?

H1 revenue was $122.4M and CFO negative $7.6M, with inventory absorbing $32.8M. Net capital spending was $3.1M after grants; July cash was $66.1M. Q2 management attributed about 55% of sales growth to net demand and the remainder to metal-price effects. September 14 brought $200M actual preferred funding under a $450M commitment; remaining $250M is conditional in staged $50M tranches. Preferred PIK accrues at 5.5% and warrants can represent up to 19.9% post-transaction ownership. The DLA agreement has a $2B ceiling and $150M minimum over a five-year ordering period, not immediate revenue. Domestic investment above $165M, controlled Springer plant work and separate raw-material/minority investments require cash. The German asset purchase is expected in Q1 calendar 2027, but final price depends on metal inventory and pension adjustments. Three later filings add commitments without new revenue. On September 21 Elmet issued Blue Moon Metals an unregistered warrant for 1,166,970 shares at $21.423, exercisable from six months after issue for three years, with a 4.99% beneficial-ownership cap adjustable to 19.99%, as consideration for Blue Moon's binding letter agreement and investment commitment. On September 22 Elmet and Elmet Technologies signed a tungsten concentrate offtake with Drakelands Restoration and Tungsten West through December 31, 2034: annual purchases begin in 2027, Elmet receives at least 50% of qualifying production until minimum targets are met, and holds a 60-day exclusive right to supply the Defense Logistics Agency; no price or volume is stated in the filing. On September 23 Elmet agreed to buy 55,138,174 ordinary shares of Masan High-Tech Materials, a 4.99% stake, from Masan Horizon for $124.75M, with a $24.95M break fee, board nomination rights, an 80% dividend payout target in the shareholders' agreement and an 18-month lock-up; the purchase is an agreement, not a closed transaction.

The competing explanation

Commodity inflation can increase reported sales while tying up cash. Conditional funding may lag projects, new supply may arrive late and preferred claims grow even before commercial deliveries. German closing consideration could materially exceed the negative fixed-price component.

Risks to track

Government appropriations, closing conditions and procurement timing.
Tungsten availability, inventory pricing and pass-through margins.
Project commissioning, controlled-JV costs and minority commitments.
German pension and working-capital purchase adjustments.
Preferred compounding, warrants and conditional cash compensation.
Masan stake: $124.75M of cash for a 4.99% minority holding with a $24.95M break fee and an 18-month lock-up buys dividend participation and a board seat, not tungsten supply or consolidated earnings.
Blue Moon warrant: 1,166,970 shares at $21.423 add potential dilution on top of the preferred warrants; the offtake from Tungsten West delivers concentrate from 2027 at terms the filing does not price.

Next checkpoints

Masan High-Tech Materials purchase · Agreement September 23, 2026; closing timing unconfirmed (estimated). Confirm closing, the $124.75M cash outflow, the accounting for a 4.99% stake with board rights, and any dividend received. Until closing the commitment is a use of cash with a $24.95M break fee, not an asset.
Tungsten West offtake deliveries · Annual purchases from 2027 through December 31, 2034 (estimated). Obtain volume, price basis and the minimum targets that release the 50% production allocation; treat contracted concentrate as input supply, not sales.
Blue Moon warrant window · Exercisable from six months after September 21, 2026, for three years (estimated). Track exercise, the beneficial-ownership cap and any change to the CAD35M investment commitment the warrant was issued for.
Staged financing · First subsequent tranche window from March 2027 (estimated). Verify conditions and actual receipts rather than assuming the full commitment is cash.
German acquisition · Q1 calendar 2027 expected closing (estimated). Obtain final price, pension/working-capital values and acquired financials.
Stockpile and new supply · Each delivery-order/project update (estimated). Separate the ceiling, accepted orders, qualified supply and recognized deliveries.

Data coverage and open work

September 14 initial preferred funding of $200M was received. Remaining $250M is conditional, in up to $50M tranches available at six-month intervals; congressional authorization, appropriations and other conditions remain relevant.
Preferred dividends accrue at 5.5%, compound quarterly and are payable in kind. Warrants cover up to 19.9% post-transaction ownership. Redemption and warrant-linked reductions require a full ownership waterfall; this model tracks PIK before those adjustments, not common equity value.
The $2B stockpile ceiling is not backlog recognized as revenue. The $150M minimum is funded commitment over a five-year ordering period, subject to accepted delivery orders; materials may be delivered within 48 months of each order. Desk sales begin only after assumed incremental supply.
September German asset acquisition remains conditional with Q1 calendar 2027 closing expected. The price includes negative EUR18M, pension assets less obligations, EUR1M restructuring prepayment and working-capital adjustment against EUR3.875M. No fixed final purchase price or receipt is asserted.
Metal-price pass-through can inflate revenue and inventory funding without equal margin growth. Q2 management attributed about 55% of revenue growth to net demand and the balance to raw material pricing; this model independently tests incremental pass-through.
The controlled Springer JV is consolidated in the forward scenario, so internal capital contributions are eliminated; only modeled external plant cash is counted as capex. Separate raw-material prepayments and Blue Moon minority shares are additional cash deployment.
Blue Moon CAD35M investment is a binding commitment; modeled USD settlement depends on assumed FX. Government money is earmarked for project purposes and does not become free cash for common owners.
H1 capex was reported net of government capital grants. Historical supplement corrects fiscal labels, adds reported July cash and sources net-capex treatment; missing historical quarters remain unavailable, not zero.
Forecast excludes precise preferred redemption, debt/lease principal, equity-award withholding, full acquisition working-capital settlement and discretionary investments. Cash after funding is a period cash-flow proxy before those claims, not ending unrestricted cash.
Fiscal quarter dates use the company's 52/53-week calendar convention, with future dates estimated. All delivery, inventory, investment and German closing cases are desk assumptions; no full-year earnings guidance is asserted.
The September 21-23 agreements are disclosed but not yet in the operating-model cells: the $124.75M Masan purchase is a pending cash commitment (with a $24.95M break fee), the Blue Moon warrant is potential dilution, and the Tungsten West offtake carries no stated price or volume. Cash deployment, share count and input-cost cells remain at the September 19 calibration until closing or the next full model review.

This review: September 28 review: recorded the Blue Moon warrant, the Tungsten West offtake through 2034 and the agreed $124.75M Masan High-Tech Materials stake as risks and checkpoints, with a limitation that none of the three is in the operating-model cells. No forecast cell changed.

What the memory says

No comparison for ELMT: No built market state is available for ELMT.

Notes on this name

Elmet: Government Funding, Ownership Costs and a Multiyear Expansion · 2026-09-14

Scorecard: 1 note scored

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/elmt-scarcity-cash-acquisition-20260914): Recheck the financing filing and investor-call replay

Provenance

[1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[3] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[4] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[6] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[7] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[8] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[9] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[10] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[11] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[12] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[13] reported: Total cash including discontinued operations; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2101698/000162828026056460/elmt-20260703.htm
[14] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[15] reported: Reported ending cash; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2101698/000162828026056460/elmt-20260703.htm
[16] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[17] reported: LongTermDebt, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[18] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[19] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[20] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[21] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[22] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json; filed 2026-05-29] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json; filed 2026-05-29], accession 0001213900-26-062433, 10-Q filed 2026-05-29; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json
[23] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json; filed 2026-08-13] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json; filed 2026-08-13], accession 0001628280-26-056460, 10-Q filed 2026-08-13; retrieved 2026-09-29T01:22:19+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002101698.json

What the author read

H1 financials, net capital grants and fiscal calendar · retrieved 2026-09-19
Q2 demand/metal-price mix and backlog · retrieved 2026-09-19
September initial funding, tranches, PIK, warrants and stockpile obligations · retrieved 2026-09-19
Conditional German purchase-price formula and expected closing · retrieved 2026-09-19
September 22 Form 8-K: warrant issued to Blue Moon Metals for its investment commitment · retrieved 2026-09-28
September 22 Form 8-K: tungsten concentrate offtake agreement with Tungsten West and Drakelands · retrieved 2026-09-28
September 24 Form 8-K: agreement to buy a 4.99% stake in Masan High-Tech Materials · retrieved 2026-09-28

Compiled 2026-09-29T01:23:51.807472+00:00 · authored f144b2da5117 · generated 1c4426984a6f · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard