ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · FINANCIALS & FINTECH

$CRCL

Circle Internet Group, Inc. · NYSE · SIC 6199 · CIK 1876042 · revision 6 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Circle earns reserve income on stablecoin assets and revenue from financial infrastructure services. Distribution partners receive a significant share of reserve economics. Corporate cash generation also depends on software investment, equity compensation and the timing of token-sale receipts and revenue recognition.

Three drivers

Average stablecoin circulation, reserve yield and retained margin
Recurring infrastructure revenue versus ARC presale recognition
Software investment, cash payroll and employee withholding

Thesis

Our view

Stablecoin adoption and lower interest rates affect earnings in different directions. Separate reserve income retained after partner costs from token-sale accounting and corporate cash after equity settlement.

What changes it

Track average USDC, reserve return, distribution costs, other-revenue composition and deferred-token cash before treating revenue growth as recurring cash.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter	2025Q3 2024-09-30	2025Q4 2024-12-31	2025Q2 2025-03-31	2025Q2 2025-06-30	2025Q3 2025-09-30	2025Q4 2025-12-31	2026Q1 2026-03-31	2026Q2 2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)	445.8¹	435.4†²	578.6³	658.1⁴	739.8¹	770.2†²	694.1³	701.3⁴
Gross profit ($M)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Operating income ($M)	63.8⁵	0.8†⁶	92.9⁷	-325.6⁸	81.0⁵	55.2†⁶	45.0⁷	34.4⁸
Net income ($M)	71.0⁹	3.1†¹⁰	64.8¹¹	-482.1¹²	214.4⁹	133.4†¹⁰	55.3¹¹	48.2¹²
EPS, diluted ($)	0.00¹³	—	0.00¹⁴	-4.48¹⁵	0.64¹³	—	0.21¹⁴	0.18¹⁵
Diluted shares (M)	73.1¹⁶	—	75.7¹⁷	107.5¹⁸	266.7¹⁶	—	266.7¹⁷	268.6¹⁸
Cash ($M)	577.3¹⁹	751.0²⁰	848.6²¹	1,118.1²²	1,348.9¹⁹	1,526.0²²	1,517.3²¹	1,730.1²²
Long-term debt ($M)	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cash from operations ($M)	113.2†²³	106.4†²⁴	56.6²⁵	247.1†²⁶	-10.7†²³	249.1†²⁴	21.1²⁵	517.4†²⁶
Capex ($M)	5.6†²⁷	9.2†²⁸	5.9²⁹	1.6†³⁰	4.1†²⁷	1.0†²⁸	9.4²⁹	1.0†³⁰
Free cash flow ($M)	107.7†³¹	97.2†³²	50.7†³³	245.6†³⁴	-14.7†³¹	248.1†³²	11.7†³³	516.4†³⁴

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

Period	Revenue ($M)	EPS ($)	As of	Basis
2026Q3	809.7	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4	641.1	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1	765.9	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2	749.6	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Reserve yield, distribution economics and deferred token-sale cash

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Normalize reserve income to Q2 average USDC and reported reserve-return rate, then vary average circulation, rate and retained reserve margin independently. Add recurring services/transaction revenue and separately identified ARC presale recognition. Base other revenue and adjusted operating expense match FY2026 midpoints; retained reserve margin is calibrated to the midpoint RLDC margin under the chosen volume/rate scenario. Bridge earnings to cash by reversing token revenue collected earlier and adding only the remaining presale cash receipt. Award withholding follows software/PP&E investment.

Reported anchors and guidance

Measure	Period	Value	Basis
q2 average usdc	June / September 2026	76,524.00	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
ending usdc	June / September 2026	73,269.00	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
Q2 reserve return rate	2026Q2	3.5%	reported. Reported rounded annual reserve-return rate. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 other revenue midpoint	FY2026	320.00	derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 adjusted operating expense midpoint	FY2026	577.50	derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 RLDC margin midpoint	FY2026	42.7%	management guidance. 41.7-43.7% annual company outlook, including token revenue. Source · 2026-08-05
H1 adj ebitda	H1 2026	294.88	reported. USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Source · 2026-08-05
H1 cfo	H1 2026	538.50	reported. USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Source · 2026-08-05
H1 CFO less cash capex	H1 2026	492.35	derived. Contains presale advance cash.
H1 FCF excluding presale receipt	H1 2026	270.35	derived. Analytical timing adjustment, not company reported FCF.
H1 award withholding	H1 2026	149.50	reported. USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Source · 2026-08-05
corporate cash	June / September 2026	1,730.13	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
corporate stablecoins	June / September 2026	889.31	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
holder reserves	June / September 2026	73,161.17	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
holder deposits	June / September 2026	72,927.54	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
presale total	June / September 2026	242.20	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
presale received	June / September 2026	222.00	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-08-05
tazapay stock	June / September 2026	400.00	reported. USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Source · 2026-09-08

Downside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	CFO less PP&E/software ($M)	Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M)	Cash PP&E and software ($M)	Revenue and reserve income ($M)	Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)	Other revenue including token recognition ($M)	ARC presale revenue recognition ($M)	Reserve income ($M)	GAAP operating income proxy ($M)	Cash equity-award withholding ($M)	Cash after award withholding ($M)
2026Q3	20.14	-7.86	193.94	28.00	570.51	42.94	32.00	0.00	538.51	-71.06	55.00	-62.86
2026Q4	-43.75	-74.75	164.25	31.00	470.29	5.25	34.00	0.00	436.29	-115.75	55.00	-129.75
2027Q1	-69.94	-103.94	232.06	34.00	497.44	65.06	116.00	80.00	381.44	-62.94	60.00	-163.94
2027Q2	-90.96	-127.96	227.24	37.00	464.25	52.24	120.20	82.20	344.05	-82.76	60.00	-187.96
FY2026	514.89	409.74	934.38	105.15	2,436.24	343.07	141.21	0.00	2,295.04	-107.45	259.50	150.24
FY2027	-364.83	-518.83	849.37	154.00	1,826.74	133.37	398.20	242.20	1,428.54	-420.63	240.00	-758.83

Base scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	CFO less PP&E/software ($M)	Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M)	Cash PP&E and software ($M)	Revenue and reserve income ($M)	Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)	Other revenue including token recognition ($M)	ARC presale revenue recognition ($M)	Reserve income ($M)	GAAP operating income proxy ($M)	Cash equity-award withholding ($M)	Cash after award withholding ($M)
2026Q3	72.95	44.95	400.75	28.00	809.69	255.75	202.00	160.00	607.69	141.75	70.00	-25.05
2026Q4	38.97	7.97	238.41	31.00	641.13	87.97	42.79	0.00	598.34	-33.03	75.00	-67.03
2027Q1	47.51	13.51	343.71	34.00	765.94	184.71	130.20	82.20	635.74	56.71	75.00	-61.49
2027Q2	62.63	25.63	294.63	37.00	749.57	123.63	54.00	0.00	695.57	-11.37	80.00	-54.37
FY2026	650.42	545.27	1,215.36	105.15	2,846.27	638.60	320.00	160.00	2,526.27	188.08	294.50	250.77
FY2027	296.68	142.68	1,350.88	154.00	3,250.07	634.88	318.20	82.20	2,931.87	80.88	330.00	-187.32

Upside scenario

Period	Operating cash flow proxy ($M)	CFO less PP&E/software ($M)	Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M)	Cash PP&E and software ($M)	Revenue and reserve income ($M)	Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)	Other revenue including token recognition ($M)	ARC presale revenue recognition ($M)	Reserve income ($M)	GAAP operating income proxy ($M)	Cash equity-award withholding ($M)	Cash after award withholding ($M)
2026Q3	149.83	121.83	485.63	28.00	897.34	332.63	208.00	160.00	689.34	218.63	85.00	36.83
2026Q4	158.98	127.98	456.18	31.00	924.52	290.18	139.20	82.20	785.32	169.18	100.00	27.98
2027Q1	201.48	167.48	441.48	34.00	968.76	256.48	70.00	0.00	898.76	128.48	110.00	57.48
2027Q2	258.75	221.75	529.75	37.00	1,133.10	319.75	86.00	0.00	1,047.10	184.75	125.00	96.75
FY2026	847.32	742.16	1,518.01	105.15	3,217.31	917.69	422.41	242.20	2,794.90	467.17	334.50	407.67
FY2027	1,190.35	1,036.35	2,363.35	154.00	4,970.04	1,446.35	389.00	0.00	4,581.04	892.35	550.00	486.35

All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model

Input / calculation	Period / case	Value / unit	Evidence or assumption
H1 revenue h1_revenue	H1 2026 / shared	1,395.45 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 reserve income h1_reserve_income	H1 2026 / shared	1,320.24 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 other revenue h1_other_revenue	H1 2026 / shared	75.21 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 token revenue h1_token_revenue	H1 2026 / shared	0.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 rldc h1_rldc	H1 2026 / shared	576.20 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 adj ebitda h1_adj_ebitda	H1 2026 / shared	294.88 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 operating income h1_operating_income	H1 2026 / shared	79.36 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 cfo h1_cfo	H1 2026 / shared	538.50 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 software h1_software	H1 2026 / shared	35.76 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 ppe h1_ppe	H1 2026 / shared	10.39 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 award withholding h1_award_withholding	H1 2026 / shared	149.50 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 adjusted opex h1_adjusted_opex	H1 2026 / shared	282.06 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 sbc h1_sbc	H1 2026 / shared	105.44 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 payroll h1_payroll	H1 2026 / shared	18.23 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 da h1_da	H1 2026 / shared	56.66 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 legal h1_legal	H1 2026 / shared	17.36 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 charity h1_charity	H1 2026 / shared	13.15 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 acquisition expense h1_acquisition_expense	H1 2026 / shared	3.79 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 digital loss h1_digital_loss	H1 2026 / shared	0.16 USD_millions	reported: USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 adjusted operating contribution h1_adjusted_operating	H1 2026 / shared	294.14 USD_millions	derived: Reported revenue less distribution cost and adjusted expense. Formula: subtract(h1_rldc, h1_adjusted_opex).
H1 EBITDA residual beyond operating contribution h1_ebitda_other	H1 2026 / shared	0.74 USD_millions	derived: Disclosed EBITDA reconciliation differs from operating contribution by $0.739M; no recurring forecast assumed. Formula: subtract(h1_adj_ebitda, h1_adjusted_operating).
H1 adjusted earnings exclusions h1_gaap_exclusions	H1 2026 / shared	215.52 USD_millions	derived: Include non-operating EBITDA residual to recover operating earnings. Formula: sum(h1_sbc, h1_payroll, h1_da, h1_legal, h1_charity, h1_acquisition_expense, h1_digital_loss, h1_ebitda_other).
H1 reconstructed GAAP operating income h1_gaap_bridge	H1 2026 / shared	79.36 USD_millions	derived: Reconciles without equating adjusted EBITDA with GAAP operating income. Formula: subtract(h1_adj_ebitda, h1_gaap_exclusions).
H1 cash PP&E and software h1_capex	H1 2026 / shared	46.15 USD_millions	derived: Includes cash internal software, not noncash capitalized SBC. Formula: sum(h1_software, h1_ppe).
H1 CFO less cash capex h1_fcf	H1 2026 / shared	492.35 USD_millions	derived: Contains presale advance cash. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 after award withholding h1_cash_after_claims	H1 2026 / shared	342.86 USD_millions	derived: Before option/ESPP proceeds and investments. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_award_withholding).
q2 reserve income q2_reserve_income	June / September 2026 / shared	667.73 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q2 average usdc q2_average_usdc	June / September 2026 / shared	76,524.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
ending usdc ending_usdc	June / September 2026 / shared	73,269.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
corporate cash corporate_cash	June / September 2026 / shared	1,730.13 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
corporate stablecoins corporate_stablecoins	June / September 2026 / shared	889.31 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
holder reserves holder_reserves	June / September 2026 / shared	73,161.17 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
holder deposits holder_deposits	June / September 2026 / shared	72,927.54 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
restricted cash restricted_cash	June / September 2026 / shared	12.81 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
presale total presale_total	June / September 2026 / shared	242.20 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
presale received presale_received	June / September 2026 / shared	222.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
tazapay stock tazapay_stock	June / September 2026 / shared	400.00 USD_millions	reported: USD millions; presale totals rounded, and Tazapay is proposed stock consideration, not cash. Primary source · 2026-09-08
Q2 reserve return rate q2_reserve_rate	2026Q2 / shared	3.5% ratio	reported: Reported rounded annual reserve-return rate. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 FCF excluding presale receipt h1_fcf_ex_presale	H1 2026 / shared	270.35 USD_millions	derived: Analytical timing adjustment, not company reported FCF. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, presale_received).
Approximate unpaid presale proceeds presale_receivable	June 2026 / shared	20.20 USD_millions	derived: Rounded disclosures; forecast assumes collection once in Q3. Formula: subtract(presale_total, presale_received).
FY2026 other revenue low fy26_other_low	FY2026 / shared	310.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 other revenue high fy26_other_high	FY2026 / shared	330.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Midpoint divisor two	Model / shared	200.0% ratio	assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 other revenue endpoint sum fy26_other_sum	FY2026 / shared	640.00 USD_millions	derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_other_low, fy26_other_high).
FY2026 other revenue midpoint fy26_other	FY2026 / shared	320.00 USD_millions	derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_other_sum, two).
FY2026 adjusted operating expense low fy26_opex_low	FY2026 / shared	570.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 adjusted operating expense high fy26_opex_high	FY2026 / shared	585.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 adjusted operating expense endpoint sum fy26_opex_sum	FY2026 / shared	1,155.00 USD_millions	derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_opex_low, fy26_opex_high).
FY2026 adjusted operating expense midpoint fy26_opex	FY2026 / shared	577.50 USD_millions	derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_opex_sum, two).
FY2026 RLDC margin midpoint fy26_rldc_mid	FY2026 / shared	42.7% ratio	management guidance: 41.7-43.7% annual company outlook, including token revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Average USDC circulation downside_2026q3_average_usdc	2026Q3 / downside	72,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2026q3_circulation_index	2026Q3 / downside	94.1% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2026q3_reserve_rate	2026Q3 / downside	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2026q3_yield_index	2026Q3 / downside	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2026q3_reserve_income	2026Q3 / downside	538.51 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2026q3_circulation_index, downside_2026q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2026q3_token_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2026q3_token_deferred_ending	2026Q3 / downside	242.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(presale_total, downside_2026q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2026q3_recurring_other	2026Q3 / downside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2026q3_other_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	32.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_recurring_other, downside_2026q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / downside	570.51 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_reserve_income, downside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2026q3_retained_margin	2026Q3 / downside	31.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2026q3_net_reserve	2026Q3 / downside	166.94 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_reserve_income, downside_2026q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q3 / downside	198.94 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_net_reserve, downside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2026q3_other_direct_cost	2026Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2026q3_rldc	2026Q3 / downside	193.94 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2026q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2026q3_adjusted_opex	2026Q3 / downside	151.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda	2026Q3 / downside	42.94 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_rldc, downside_2026q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2026q3_payroll	2026Q3 / downside	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / downside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2026q3_legal	2026Q3 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2026q3_integration	2026Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments	2026Q3 / downside	114.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_payroll, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_legal, downside_2026q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / downside	-71.06 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Corporate cash interest income downside_2026q3_corporate_interest	2026Q3 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses	2026Q3 / downside	77.14 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_corporate_interest, presale_receivable).
Cash income tax downside_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / downside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2026q3_working_capital_use	2026Q3 / downside	20.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2026q3_cash_adjustments	2026Q3 / downside	57.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_token_revenue, downside_2026q3_payroll, downside_2026q3_legal, downside_2026q3_integration, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / downside	20.14 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2026q3_software	2026Q3 / downside	22.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2026q3_ppe	2026Q3 / downside	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / downside	28.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_software, downside_2026q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / downside	-7.86 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2026q3_award_withholding	2026Q3 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims	2026Q3 / downside	-62.86 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation downside_2026q4_average_usdc	2026Q4 / downside	70,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2026q4_circulation_index	2026Q4 / downside	91.5% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2026q4_reserve_rate	2026Q4 / downside	2.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2026q4_yield_index	2026Q4 / downside	71.4% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2026q4_reserve_income	2026Q4 / downside	436.29 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2026q4_circulation_index, downside_2026q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2026q4_token_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2026q4_token_deferred_ending	2026Q4 / downside	242.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_token_deferred_ending, downside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2026q4_recurring_other	2026Q4 / downside	34.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2026q4_other_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	34.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_recurring_other, downside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / downside	470.29 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_reserve_income, downside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2026q4_retained_margin	2026Q4 / downside	31.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2026q4_net_reserve	2026Q4 / downside	135.25 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_reserve_income, downside_2026q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q4 / downside	169.25 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_net_reserve, downside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2026q4_other_direct_cost	2026Q4 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2026q4_rldc	2026Q4 / downside	164.25 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2026q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2026q4_adjusted_opex	2026Q4 / downside	159.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda	2026Q4 / downside	5.25 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_rldc, downside_2026q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / downside	64.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2026q4_payroll	2026Q4 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / downside	34.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2026q4_legal	2026Q4 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2026q4_integration	2026Q4 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments	2026Q4 / downside	121.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_payroll, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_legal, downside_2026q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / downside	-115.75 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection downside_2026q4_presale_receipt	2026Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income downside_2026q4_corporate_interest	2026Q4 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses	2026Q4 / downside	19.25 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_corporate_interest, downside_2026q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax downside_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / downside	17.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2026q4_working_capital_use	2026Q4 / downside	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2026q4_cash_adjustments	2026Q4 / downside	63.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_token_revenue, downside_2026q4_payroll, downside_2026q4_legal, downside_2026q4_integration, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / downside	-43.75 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2026q4_software	2026Q4 / downside	24.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2026q4_ppe	2026Q4 / downside	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / downside	31.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_software, downside_2026q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / downside	-74.75 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2026q4_award_withholding	2026Q4 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims	2026Q4 / downside	-129.75 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation downside_2027q1_average_usdc	2027Q1 / downside	68,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2027q1_circulation_index	2027Q1 / downside	88.9% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2027q1_reserve_rate	2027Q1 / downside	2.2% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2027q1_yield_index	2027Q1 / downside	64.3% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2027q1_reserve_income	2027Q1 / downside	381.44 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q1_circulation_index, downside_2027q1_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2027q1_token_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2027q1_token_deferred_ending	2027Q1 / downside	162.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_token_deferred_ending, downside_2027q1_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2027q1_recurring_other	2027Q1 / downside	36.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2027q1_other_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	116.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_recurring_other, downside_2027q1_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / downside	497.44 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_reserve_income, downside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2027q1_retained_margin	2027Q1 / downside	32.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2027q1_net_reserve	2027Q1 / downside	122.06 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_reserve_income, downside_2027q1_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q1 / downside	238.06 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_reserve, downside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2027q1_other_direct_cost	2027Q1 / downside	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2027q1_rldc	2027Q1 / downside	232.06 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2027q1_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex	2027Q1 / downside	167.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda	2027Q1 / downside	65.06 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_rldc, downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / downside	68.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2027q1_payroll	2027Q1 / downside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / downside	36.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2027q1_legal	2027Q1 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2027q1_integration	2027Q1 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments	2027Q1 / downside	128.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_payroll, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_legal, downside_2027q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / downside	-62.94 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection downside_2027q1_presale_receipt	2027Q1 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income downside_2027q1_corporate_interest	2027Q1 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses	2027Q1 / downside	79.06 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_corporate_interest, downside_2027q1_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax downside_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / downside	19.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2027q1_working_capital_use	2027Q1 / downside	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments	2027Q1 / downside	149.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_token_revenue, downside_2027q1_payroll, downside_2027q1_legal, downside_2027q1_integration, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / downside	-69.94 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2027q1_software	2027Q1 / downside	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2027q1_ppe	2027Q1 / downside	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / downside	34.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_software, downside_2027q1_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / downside	-103.94 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2027q1_award_withholding	2027Q1 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims	2027Q1 / downside	-163.94 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation downside_2027q2_average_usdc	2027Q2 / downside	69,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2027q2_circulation_index	2027Q2 / downside	90.2% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2027q2_reserve_rate	2027Q2 / downside	2.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2027q2_yield_index	2027Q2 / downside	57.1% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2027q2_reserve_income	2027Q2 / downside	344.05 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q2_circulation_index, downside_2027q2_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2027q2_token_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	82.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2027q2_token_deferred_ending	2027Q2 / downside	80.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_token_deferred_ending, downside_2027q2_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2027q2_recurring_other	2027Q2 / downside	38.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2027q2_other_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	120.20 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_recurring_other, downside_2027q2_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / downside	464.25 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2027q2_retained_margin	2027Q2 / downside	33.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2027q2_net_reserve	2027Q2 / downside	113.54 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q2_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q2 / downside	233.74 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_net_reserve, downside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2027q2_other_direct_cost	2027Q2 / downside	6.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2027q2_rldc	2027Q2 / downside	227.24 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2027q2_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex	2027Q2 / downside	175.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda	2027Q2 / downside	52.24 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_rldc, downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / downside	72.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2027q2_payroll	2027Q2 / downside	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / downside	38.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2027q2_legal	2027Q2 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2027q2_integration	2027Q2 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments	2027Q2 / downside	135.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_payroll, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_legal, downside_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / downside	-82.76 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection downside_2027q2_presale_receipt	2027Q2 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income downside_2027q2_corporate_interest	2027Q2 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses	2027Q2 / downside	66.24 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_corporate_interest, downside_2027q2_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax downside_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / downside	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2027q2_working_capital_use	2027Q2 / downside	29.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments	2027Q2 / downside	157.20 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_token_revenue, downside_2027q2_payroll, downside_2027q2_legal, downside_2027q2_integration, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / downside	-90.96 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2027q2_software	2027Q2 / downside	28.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2027q2_ppe	2027Q2 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / downside	37.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_software, downside_2027q2_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / downside	-127.96 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2027q2_award_withholding	2027Q2 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims	2027Q2 / downside	-187.96 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation downside_2027q3_average_usdc	2027Q3 / downside	70,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2027q3_circulation_index	2027Q3 / downside	91.5% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2027q3_reserve_rate	2027Q3 / downside	2.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2027q3_yield_index	2027Q3 / downside	57.1% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2027q3_reserve_income	2027Q3 / downside	349.03 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q3_circulation_index, downside_2027q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2027q3_token_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2027q3_token_deferred_ending	2027Q3 / downside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_token_deferred_ending, downside_2027q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2027q3_recurring_other	2027Q3 / downside	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2027q3_other_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	120.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_recurring_other, downside_2027q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / downside	469.03 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_reserve_income, downside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2027q3_retained_margin	2027Q3 / downside	34.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2027q3_net_reserve	2027Q3 / downside	118.67 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_reserve_income, downside_2027q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q3 / downside	238.67 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_net_reserve, downside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2027q3_other_direct_cost	2027Q3 / downside	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2027q3_rldc	2027Q3 / downside	231.67 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2027q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex	2027Q3 / downside	183.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda	2027Q3 / downside	48.67 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_rldc, downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / downside	76.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2027q3_payroll	2027Q3 / downside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / downside	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2027q3_legal	2027Q3 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2027q3_integration	2027Q3 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments	2027Q3 / downside	142.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_payroll, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_legal, downside_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / downside	-93.33 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection downside_2027q3_presale_receipt	2027Q3 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income downside_2027q3_corporate_interest	2027Q3 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses	2027Q3 / downside	62.67 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_corporate_interest, downside_2027q3_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax downside_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / downside	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2027q3_working_capital_use	2027Q3 / downside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments	2027Q3 / downside	161.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_token_revenue, downside_2027q3_payroll, downside_2027q3_legal, downside_2027q3_integration, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / downside	-98.33 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2027q3_software	2027Q3 / downside	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2027q3_ppe	2027Q3 / downside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / downside	40.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_software, downside_2027q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / downside	-138.33 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2027q3_award_withholding	2027Q3 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims	2027Q3 / downside	-198.33 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation downside_2027q4_average_usdc	2027Q4 / downside	71,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 downside_2027q4_circulation_index	2027Q4 / downside	92.8% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate downside_2027q4_reserve_rate	2027Q4 / downside	2.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 downside_2027q4_yield_index	2027Q4 / downside	57.1% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income downside_2027q4_reserve_income	2027Q4 / downside	354.02 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q4_circulation_index, downside_2027q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition downside_2027q4_token_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue downside_2027q4_token_deferred_ending	2027Q4 / downside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_token_deferred_ending, downside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue downside_2027q4_recurring_other	2027Q4 / downside	42.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue downside_2027q4_other_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	42.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_recurring_other, downside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income downside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / downside	396.02 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_reserve_income, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin downside_2027q4_retained_margin	2027Q4 / downside	35.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs downside_2027q4_net_reserve	2027Q4 / downside	123.91 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_reserve_income, downside_2027q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue downside_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q4 / downside	165.91 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_net_reserve, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost downside_2027q4_other_direct_cost	2027Q4 / downside	7.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs downside_2027q4_rldc	2027Q4 / downside	158.41 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost, downside_2027q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex	2027Q4 / downside	191.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda	2027Q4 / downside	-32.59 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_rldc, downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense downside_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / downside	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity downside_2027q4_payroll	2027Q4 / downside	13.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization downside_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / downside	42.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA downside_2027q4_legal	2027Q4 / downside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense downside_2027q4_integration	2027Q4 / downside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments	2027Q4 / downside	149.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_payroll, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_legal, downside_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / downside	-181.59 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection downside_2027q4_presale_receipt	2027Q4 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income downside_2027q4_corporate_interest	2027Q4 / downside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses	2027Q4 / downside	-18.59 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_corporate_interest, downside_2027q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax downside_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / downside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use downside_2027q4_working_capital_use	2027Q4 / downside	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments	2027Q4 / downside	87.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_token_revenue, downside_2027q4_payroll, downside_2027q4_legal, downside_2027q4_integration, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / downside	-105.59 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, downside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software downside_2027q4_software	2027Q4 / downside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E downside_2027q4_ppe	2027Q4 / downside	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software downside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / downside	43.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_software, downside_2027q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software downside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / downside	-148.59 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash downside_2027q4_award_withholding	2027Q4 / downside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims	2027Q4 / downside	-208.59 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_award_withholding).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / downside	2,436.24 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) downside_fy2026_reserve_income	FY2026 / downside	2,295.04 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_reserve_income, downside_2026q3_reserve_income, downside_2026q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) downside_fy2026_other_revenue	FY2026 / downside	141.21 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) downside_fy2026_token_revenue	FY2026 / downside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_token_revenue, downside_2026q3_token_revenue, downside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) downside_fy2026_rldc	FY2026 / downside	934.38 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_rldc, downside_2026q3_rldc, downside_2026q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda	FY2026 / downside	343.07 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / downside	-107.45 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / downside	514.89 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) downside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / downside	105.15 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / downside	409.74 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) downside_fy2026_award_withholding	FY2026 / downside	259.50 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_award_withholding, downside_2026q3_award_withholding, downside_2026q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims	FY2026 / downside	150.24 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / downside	1,826.74 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) downside_fy2027_reserve_income	FY2027 / downside	1,428.54 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_reserve_income, downside_2027q2_reserve_income, downside_2027q3_reserve_income, downside_2027q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) downside_fy2027_other_revenue	FY2027 / downside	398.20 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) downside_fy2027_token_revenue	FY2027 / downside	242.20 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_token_revenue, downside_2027q2_token_revenue, downside_2027q3_token_revenue, downside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) downside_fy2027_rldc	FY2027 / downside	849.37 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_rldc, downside_2027q2_rldc, downside_2027q3_rldc, downside_2027q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda	FY2027 / downside	133.37 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / downside	-420.63 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / downside	-364.83 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) downside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / downside	154.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / downside	-518.83 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) downside_fy2027_award_withholding	FY2027 / downside	240.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_award_withholding, downside_2027q2_award_withholding, downside_2027q3_award_withholding, downside_2027q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims	FY2027 / downside	-758.83 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Average USDC circulation base_2026q3_average_usdc	2026Q3 / base	75,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2026q3_circulation_index	2026Q3 / base	98.0% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2026q3_reserve_rate	2026Q3 / base	3.2% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2026q3_yield_index	2026Q3 / base	92.9% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2026q3_reserve_income	2026Q3 / base	607.69 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2026q3_circulation_index, base_2026q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2026q3_token_revenue	2026Q3 / base	160.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2026q3_token_deferred_ending	2026Q3 / base	82.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(presale_total, base_2026q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2026q3_recurring_other	2026Q3 / base	42.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2026q3_other_revenue	2026Q3 / base	202.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_recurring_other, base_2026q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / base	809.69 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_reserve_income, base_2026q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2026q3_retained_margin	2026Q3 / base	33.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2026q3_net_reserve	2026Q3 / base	203.75 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_reserve_income, base_2026q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q3 / base	405.75 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_net_reserve, base_2026q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2026q3_other_direct_cost	2026Q3 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2026q3_rldc	2026Q3 / base	400.75 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2026q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2026q3_adjusted_opex	2026Q3 / base	145.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q3_adj_ebitda	2026Q3 / base	255.75 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_rldc, base_2026q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / base	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2026q3_payroll	2026Q3 / base	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / base	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2026q3_legal	2026Q3 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2026q3_integration	2026Q3 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments	2026Q3 / base	114.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_payroll, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_legal, base_2026q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / base	141.75 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Corporate cash interest income base_2026q3_corporate_interest	2026Q3 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2026q3_cash_before_uses	2026Q3 / base	289.95 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_corporate_interest, presale_receivable).
Cash income tax base_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / base	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2026q3_working_capital_use	2026Q3 / base	20.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2026q3_cash_adjustments	2026Q3 / base	217.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_token_revenue, base_2026q3_payroll, base_2026q3_legal, base_2026q3_integration, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / base	72.95 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_uses, base_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2026q3_software	2026Q3 / base	22.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2026q3_ppe	2026Q3 / base	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / base	28.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_software, base_2026q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / base	44.95 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2026q3_award_withholding	2026Q3 / base	70.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2026q3_cash_after_claims	2026Q3 / base	-25.05 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation base_2026q4_average_usdc	2026Q4 / base	80,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2026q4_circulation_index	2026Q4 / base	104.5% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2026q4_reserve_rate	2026Q4 / base	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2026q4_yield_index	2026Q4 / base	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2026q4_reserve_income	2026Q4 / base	598.34 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2026q4_circulation_index, base_2026q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2026q4_token_revenue	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2026q4_token_deferred_ending	2026Q4 / base	82.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_token_deferred_ending, base_2026q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2026q4_recurring_other	2026Q4 / base	42.79 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2026q4_other_revenue	2026Q4 / base	42.79 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_recurring_other, base_2026q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / base	641.13 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_reserve_income, base_2026q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2026q4_retained_margin	2026Q4 / base	33.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2026q4_net_reserve	2026Q4 / base	200.62 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_reserve_income, base_2026q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q4 / base	243.41 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_net_reserve, base_2026q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2026q4_other_direct_cost	2026Q4 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2026q4_rldc	2026Q4 / base	238.41 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2026q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2026q4_adjusted_opex	2026Q4 / base	150.44 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q4_adj_ebitda	2026Q4 / base	87.97 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_rldc, base_2026q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / base	64.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2026q4_payroll	2026Q4 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / base	34.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2026q4_legal	2026Q4 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2026q4_integration	2026Q4 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments	2026Q4 / base	121.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_payroll, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_legal, base_2026q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / base	-33.03 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection base_2026q4_presale_receipt	2026Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income base_2026q4_corporate_interest	2026Q4 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2026q4_cash_before_uses	2026Q4 / base	101.97 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_corporate_interest, base_2026q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax base_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / base	17.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2026q4_working_capital_use	2026Q4 / base	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2026q4_cash_adjustments	2026Q4 / base	63.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_token_revenue, base_2026q4_payroll, base_2026q4_legal, base_2026q4_integration, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / base	38.97 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_uses, base_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2026q4_software	2026Q4 / base	24.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2026q4_ppe	2026Q4 / base	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / base	31.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_software, base_2026q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / base	7.97 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2026q4_award_withholding	2026Q4 / base	75.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2026q4_cash_after_claims	2026Q4 / base	-67.03 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation base_2027q1_average_usdc	2027Q1 / base	85,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2027q1_circulation_index	2027Q1 / base	111.1% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2027q1_reserve_rate	2027Q1 / base	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2027q1_yield_index	2027Q1 / base	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2027q1_reserve_income	2027Q1 / base	635.74 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2027q1_circulation_index, base_2027q1_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2027q1_token_revenue	2027Q1 / base	82.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2027q1_token_deferred_ending	2027Q1 / base	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_token_deferred_ending, base_2027q1_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2027q1_recurring_other	2027Q1 / base	48.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2027q1_other_revenue	2027Q1 / base	130.20 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_recurring_other, base_2027q1_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / base	765.94 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_reserve_income, base_2027q1_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2027q1_retained_margin	2027Q1 / base	34.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2027q1_net_reserve	2027Q1 / base	219.51 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_reserve_income, base_2027q1_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q1 / base	349.71 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_reserve, base_2027q1_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2027q1_other_direct_cost	2027Q1 / base	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2027q1_rldc	2027Q1 / base	343.71 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2027q1_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2027q1_adjusted_opex	2027Q1 / base	159.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q1_adj_ebitda	2027Q1 / base	184.71 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_rldc, base_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / base	68.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2027q1_payroll	2027Q1 / base	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / base	36.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2027q1_legal	2027Q1 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2027q1_integration	2027Q1 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments	2027Q1 / base	128.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_payroll, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_legal, base_2027q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / base	56.71 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection base_2027q1_presale_receipt	2027Q1 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income base_2027q1_corporate_interest	2027Q1 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2027q1_cash_before_uses	2027Q1 / base	198.71 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_corporate_interest, base_2027q1_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax base_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / base	19.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2027q1_working_capital_use	2027Q1 / base	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2027q1_cash_adjustments	2027Q1 / base	151.20 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_token_revenue, base_2027q1_payroll, base_2027q1_legal, base_2027q1_integration, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / base	47.51 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_uses, base_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2027q1_software	2027Q1 / base	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2027q1_ppe	2027Q1 / base	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / base	34.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_software, base_2027q1_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / base	13.51 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2027q1_award_withholding	2027Q1 / base	75.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2027q1_cash_after_claims	2027Q1 / base	-61.49 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation base_2027q2_average_usdc	2027Q2 / base	93,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2027q2_circulation_index	2027Q2 / base	121.5% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2027q2_reserve_rate	2027Q2 / base	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2027q2_yield_index	2027Q2 / base	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2027q2_reserve_income	2027Q2 / base	695.57 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2027q2_circulation_index, base_2027q2_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2027q2_token_revenue	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2027q2_token_deferred_ending	2027Q2 / base	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_token_deferred_ending, base_2027q2_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2027q2_recurring_other	2027Q2 / base	54.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2027q2_other_revenue	2027Q2 / base	54.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_recurring_other, base_2027q2_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / base	749.57 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_reserve_income, base_2027q2_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2027q2_retained_margin	2027Q2 / base	35.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2027q2_net_reserve	2027Q2 / base	247.13 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_reserve_income, base_2027q2_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q2 / base	301.13 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_net_reserve, base_2027q2_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2027q2_other_direct_cost	2027Q2 / base	6.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2027q2_rldc	2027Q2 / base	294.63 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2027q2_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2027q2_adjusted_opex	2027Q2 / base	171.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q2_adj_ebitda	2027Q2 / base	123.63 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_rldc, base_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / base	72.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2027q2_payroll	2027Q2 / base	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / base	38.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2027q2_legal	2027Q2 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2027q2_integration	2027Q2 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments	2027Q2 / base	135.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_payroll, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_legal, base_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / base	-11.37 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection base_2027q2_presale_receipt	2027Q2 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income base_2027q2_corporate_interest	2027Q2 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2027q2_cash_before_uses	2027Q2 / base	137.63 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_corporate_interest, base_2027q2_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax base_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / base	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2027q2_working_capital_use	2027Q2 / base	29.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2027q2_cash_adjustments	2027Q2 / base	75.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_token_revenue, base_2027q2_payroll, base_2027q2_legal, base_2027q2_integration, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / base	62.63 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_uses, base_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2027q2_software	2027Q2 / base	28.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2027q2_ppe	2027Q2 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / base	37.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_software, base_2027q2_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / base	25.63 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2027q2_award_withholding	2027Q2 / base	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2027q2_cash_after_claims	2027Q2 / base	-54.37 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation base_2027q3_average_usdc	2027Q3 / base	102,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2027q3_circulation_index	2027Q3 / base	133.3% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2027q3_reserve_rate	2027Q3 / base	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2027q3_yield_index	2027Q3 / base	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2027q3_reserve_income	2027Q3 / base	762.88 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2027q3_circulation_index, base_2027q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2027q3_token_revenue	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2027q3_token_deferred_ending	2027Q3 / base	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_token_deferred_ending, base_2027q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2027q3_recurring_other	2027Q3 / base	62.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2027q3_other_revenue	2027Q3 / base	62.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_recurring_other, base_2027q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / base	824.88 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_reserve_income, base_2027q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2027q3_retained_margin	2027Q3 / base	36.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2027q3_net_reserve	2027Q3 / base	278.67 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_reserve_income, base_2027q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q3 / base	340.67 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_net_reserve, base_2027q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2027q3_other_direct_cost	2027Q3 / base	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2027q3_rldc	2027Q3 / base	333.67 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2027q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2027q3_adjusted_opex	2027Q3 / base	185.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q3_adj_ebitda	2027Q3 / base	148.67 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_rldc, base_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / base	76.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2027q3_payroll	2027Q3 / base	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / base	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2027q3_legal	2027Q3 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2027q3_integration	2027Q3 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments	2027Q3 / base	142.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_payroll, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_legal, base_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / base	6.67 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection base_2027q3_presale_receipt	2027Q3 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income base_2027q3_corporate_interest	2027Q3 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2027q3_cash_before_uses	2027Q3 / base	162.67 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_corporate_interest, base_2027q3_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax base_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / base	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2027q3_working_capital_use	2027Q3 / base	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2027q3_cash_adjustments	2027Q3 / base	81.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_token_revenue, base_2027q3_payroll, base_2027q3_legal, base_2027q3_integration, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / base	81.67 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_uses, base_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2027q3_software	2027Q3 / base	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2027q3_ppe	2027Q3 / base	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / base	40.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_software, base_2027q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / base	41.67 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2027q3_award_withholding	2027Q3 / base	85.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2027q3_cash_after_claims	2027Q3 / base	-43.33 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation base_2027q4_average_usdc	2027Q4 / base	112,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 base_2027q4_circulation_index	2027Q4 / base	146.4% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate base_2027q4_reserve_rate	2027Q4 / base	3.0% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 base_2027q4_yield_index	2027Q4 / base	85.7% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income base_2027q4_reserve_income	2027Q4 / base	837.68 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, base_2027q4_circulation_index, base_2027q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition base_2027q4_token_revenue	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue base_2027q4_token_deferred_ending	2027Q4 / base	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_token_deferred_ending, base_2027q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue base_2027q4_recurring_other	2027Q4 / base	72.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue base_2027q4_other_revenue	2027Q4 / base	72.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_recurring_other, base_2027q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income base_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / base	909.68 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_reserve_income, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin base_2027q4_retained_margin	2027Q4 / base	37.5% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs base_2027q4_net_reserve	2027Q4 / base	314.37 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_reserve_income, base_2027q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue base_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q4 / base	386.37 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_net_reserve, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost base_2027q4_other_direct_cost	2027Q4 / base	7.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs base_2027q4_rldc	2027Q4 / base	378.87 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost, base_2027q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense base_2027q4_adjusted_opex	2027Q4 / base	201.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q4_adj_ebitda	2027Q4 / base	177.87 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_rldc, base_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense base_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / base	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity base_2027q4_payroll	2027Q4 / base	13.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization base_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / base	42.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA base_2027q4_legal	2027Q4 / base	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense base_2027q4_integration	2027Q4 / base	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments	2027Q4 / base	149.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_payroll, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_legal, base_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / base	28.87 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection base_2027q4_presale_receipt	2027Q4 / base	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income base_2027q4_corporate_interest	2027Q4 / base	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt base_2027q4_cash_before_uses	2027Q4 / base	191.87 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_corporate_interest, base_2027q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax base_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / base	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use base_2027q4_working_capital_use	2027Q4 / base	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses base_2027q4_cash_adjustments	2027Q4 / base	87.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_token_revenue, base_2027q4_payroll, base_2027q4_legal, base_2027q4_integration, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / base	104.87 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_uses, base_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software base_2027q4_software	2027Q4 / base	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E base_2027q4_ppe	2027Q4 / base	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software base_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / base	43.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_software, base_2027q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software base_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / base	61.87 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash base_2027q4_award_withholding	2027Q4 / base	90.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding base_2027q4_cash_after_claims	2027Q4 / base	-28.13 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_award_withholding).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) base_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / base	2,846.27 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) base_fy2026_reserve_income	FY2026 / base	2,526.27 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_reserve_income, base_2026q3_reserve_income, base_2026q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) base_fy2026_other_revenue	FY2026 / base	320.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) base_fy2026_token_revenue	FY2026 / base	160.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_token_revenue, base_2026q3_token_revenue, base_2026q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) base_fy2026_rldc	FY2026 / base	1,215.36 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_rldc, base_2026q3_rldc, base_2026q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2026_adj_ebitda	FY2026 / base	638.60 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / base	188.08 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / base	650.42 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) base_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / base	105.15 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) base_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / base	545.27 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) base_fy2026_award_withholding	FY2026 / base	294.50 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_award_withholding, base_2026q3_award_withholding, base_2026q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_claims	FY2026 / base	250.77 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) base_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / base	3,250.07 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) base_fy2027_reserve_income	FY2027 / base	2,931.87 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_reserve_income, base_2027q2_reserve_income, base_2027q3_reserve_income, base_2027q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) base_fy2027_other_revenue	FY2027 / base	318.20 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) base_fy2027_token_revenue	FY2027 / base	82.20 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_token_revenue, base_2027q2_token_revenue, base_2027q3_token_revenue, base_2027q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) base_fy2027_rldc	FY2027 / base	1,350.88 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_rldc, base_2027q2_rldc, base_2027q3_rldc, base_2027q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2027_adj_ebitda	FY2027 / base	634.88 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / base	80.88 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / base	296.68 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) base_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / base	154.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) base_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / base	142.68 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) base_fy2027_award_withholding	FY2027 / base	330.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_award_withholding, base_2027q2_award_withholding, base_2027q3_award_withholding, base_2027q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_claims	FY2027 / base	-187.32 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Average USDC circulation upside_2026q3_average_usdc	2026Q3 / upside	79,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2026q3_circulation_index	2026Q3 / upside	103.2% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2026q3_reserve_rate	2026Q3 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2026q3_yield_index	2026Q3 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2026q3_reserve_income	2026Q3 / upside	689.34 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2026q3_circulation_index, upside_2026q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2026q3_token_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	160.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2026q3_token_deferred_ending	2026Q3 / upside	82.20 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(presale_total, upside_2026q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2026q3_recurring_other	2026Q3 / upside	48.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2026q3_other_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	208.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_recurring_other, upside_2026q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2026q3_revenue	2026Q3 / upside	897.34 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_reserve_income, upside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2026q3_retained_margin	2026Q3 / upside	41.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2026q3_net_reserve	2026Q3 / upside	282.63 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_reserve_income, upside_2026q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q3 / upside	490.63 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_net_reserve, upside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2026q3_other_direct_cost	2026Q3 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2026q3_rldc	2026Q3 / upside	485.63 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2026q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2026q3_adjusted_opex	2026Q3 / upside	153.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda	2026Q3 / upside	332.63 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_rldc, upside_2026q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2026q3_sbc	2026Q3 / upside	60.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2026q3_payroll	2026Q3 / upside	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2026q3_da	2026Q3 / upside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2026q3_legal	2026Q3 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2026q3_integration	2026Q3 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments	2026Q3 / upside	114.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_payroll, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_legal, upside_2026q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income	2026Q3 / upside	218.63 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Corporate cash interest income upside_2026q3_corporate_interest	2026Q3 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses	2026Q3 / upside	366.83 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_corporate_interest, presale_receivable).
Cash income tax upside_2026q3_cash_tax	2026Q3 / upside	15.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2026q3_working_capital_use	2026Q3 / upside	20.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2026q3_cash_adjustments	2026Q3 / upside	217.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_token_revenue, upside_2026q3_payroll, upside_2026q3_legal, upside_2026q3_integration, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / upside	149.83 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2026q3_software	2026Q3 / upside	22.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2026q3_ppe	2026Q3 / upside	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / upside	28.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_software, upside_2026q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / upside	121.83 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2026q3_award_withholding	2026Q3 / upside	85.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims	2026Q3 / upside	36.83 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation upside_2026q4_average_usdc	2026Q4 / upside	90,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2026q4_circulation_index	2026Q4 / upside	117.6% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2026q4_reserve_rate	2026Q4 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2026q4_yield_index	2026Q4 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2026q4_reserve_income	2026Q4 / upside	785.32 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2026q4_circulation_index, upside_2026q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2026q4_token_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	82.20 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2026q4_token_deferred_ending	2026Q4 / upside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_token_deferred_ending, upside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2026q4_recurring_other	2026Q4 / upside	57.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2026q4_other_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	139.20 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_recurring_other, upside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2026q4_revenue	2026Q4 / upside	924.52 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_reserve_income, upside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2026q4_retained_margin	2026Q4 / upside	41.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2026q4_net_reserve	2026Q4 / upside	321.98 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_reserve_income, upside_2026q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2026Q4 / upside	461.18 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_net_reserve, upside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2026q4_other_direct_cost	2026Q4 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2026q4_rldc	2026Q4 / upside	456.18 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2026q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2026q4_adjusted_opex	2026Q4 / upside	166.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda	2026Q4 / upside	290.18 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_rldc, upside_2026q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2026q4_sbc	2026Q4 / upside	64.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2026q4_payroll	2026Q4 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2026q4_da	2026Q4 / upside	34.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2026q4_legal	2026Q4 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2026q4_integration	2026Q4 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments	2026Q4 / upside	121.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_payroll, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_legal, upside_2026q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income	2026Q4 / upside	169.18 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection upside_2026q4_presale_receipt	2026Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income upside_2026q4_corporate_interest	2026Q4 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses	2026Q4 / upside	304.18 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_corporate_interest, upside_2026q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax upside_2026q4_cash_tax	2026Q4 / upside	17.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2026q4_working_capital_use	2026Q4 / upside	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2026q4_cash_adjustments	2026Q4 / upside	145.20 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_token_revenue, upside_2026q4_payroll, upside_2026q4_legal, upside_2026q4_integration, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / upside	158.98 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2026q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2026q4_software	2026Q4 / upside	24.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2026q4_ppe	2026Q4 / upside	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / upside	31.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_software, upside_2026q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / upside	127.98 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2026q4_award_withholding	2026Q4 / upside	100.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims	2026Q4 / upside	27.98 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation upside_2027q1_average_usdc	2027Q1 / upside	103,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2027q1_circulation_index	2027Q1 / upside	134.6% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2027q1_reserve_rate	2027Q1 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2027q1_yield_index	2027Q1 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2027q1_reserve_income	2027Q1 / upside	898.76 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q1_circulation_index, upside_2027q1_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2027q1_token_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2027q1_token_deferred_ending	2027Q1 / upside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_token_deferred_ending, upside_2027q1_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2027q1_recurring_other	2027Q1 / upside	70.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2027q1_other_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	70.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_recurring_other, upside_2027q1_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2027q1_revenue	2027Q1 / upside	968.76 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_reserve_income, upside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2027q1_retained_margin	2027Q1 / upside	42.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2027q1_net_reserve	2027Q1 / upside	377.48 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_reserve_income, upside_2027q1_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q1 / upside	447.48 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_reserve, upside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2027q1_other_direct_cost	2027Q1 / upside	6.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2027q1_rldc	2027Q1 / upside	441.48 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2027q1_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex	2027Q1 / upside	185.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda	2027Q1 / upside	256.48 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_rldc, upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2027q1_sbc	2027Q1 / upside	68.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2027q1_payroll	2027Q1 / upside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2027q1_da	2027Q1 / upside	36.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2027q1_legal	2027Q1 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2027q1_integration	2027Q1 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments	2027Q1 / upside	128.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_payroll, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_legal, upside_2027q1_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income	2027Q1 / upside	128.48 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection upside_2027q1_presale_receipt	2027Q1 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income upside_2027q1_corporate_interest	2027Q1 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses	2027Q1 / upside	270.48 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_corporate_interest, upside_2027q1_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax upside_2027q1_cash_tax	2027Q1 / upside	19.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2027q1_working_capital_use	2027Q1 / upside	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments	2027Q1 / upside	69.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_token_revenue, upside_2027q1_payroll, upside_2027q1_legal, upside_2027q1_integration, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / upside	201.48 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q1_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2027q1_software	2027Q1 / upside	26.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2027q1_ppe	2027Q1 / upside	8.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / upside	34.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_software, upside_2027q1_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / upside	167.48 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2027q1_award_withholding	2027Q1 / upside	110.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims	2027Q1 / upside	57.48 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation upside_2027q2_average_usdc	2027Q2 / upside	120,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2027q2_circulation_index	2027Q2 / upside	156.8% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2027q2_reserve_rate	2027Q2 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2027q2_yield_index	2027Q2 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2027q2_reserve_income	2027Q2 / upside	1,047.10 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q2_circulation_index, upside_2027q2_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2027q2_token_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2027q2_token_deferred_ending	2027Q2 / upside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_token_deferred_ending, upside_2027q2_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2027q2_recurring_other	2027Q2 / upside	86.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2027q2_other_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	86.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_recurring_other, upside_2027q2_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2027q2_revenue	2027Q2 / upside	1,133.10 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2027q2_retained_margin	2027Q2 / upside	43.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2027q2_net_reserve	2027Q2 / upside	450.25 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q2_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q2 / upside	536.25 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_net_reserve, upside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2027q2_other_direct_cost	2027Q2 / upside	6.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2027q2_rldc	2027Q2 / upside	529.75 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2027q2_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex	2027Q2 / upside	210.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda	2027Q2 / upside	319.75 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_rldc, upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2027q2_sbc	2027Q2 / upside	72.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2027q2_payroll	2027Q2 / upside	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2027q2_da	2027Q2 / upside	38.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2027q2_legal	2027Q2 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2027q2_integration	2027Q2 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments	2027Q2 / upside	135.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_payroll, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_legal, upside_2027q2_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income	2027Q2 / upside	184.75 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection upside_2027q2_presale_receipt	2027Q2 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income upside_2027q2_corporate_interest	2027Q2 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses	2027Q2 / upside	333.75 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_corporate_interest, upside_2027q2_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax upside_2027q2_cash_tax	2027Q2 / upside	21.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2027q2_working_capital_use	2027Q2 / upside	29.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments	2027Q2 / upside	75.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_token_revenue, upside_2027q2_payroll, upside_2027q2_legal, upside_2027q2_integration, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / upside	258.75 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q2_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2027q2_software	2027Q2 / upside	28.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2027q2_ppe	2027Q2 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / upside	37.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_software, upside_2027q2_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / upside	221.75 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2027q2_award_withholding	2027Q2 / upside	125.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims	2027Q2 / upside	96.75 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation upside_2027q3_average_usdc	2027Q3 / upside	140,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2027q3_circulation_index	2027Q3 / upside	182.9% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2027q3_reserve_rate	2027Q3 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2027q3_yield_index	2027Q3 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2027q3_reserve_income	2027Q3 / upside	1,221.61 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q3_circulation_index, upside_2027q3_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2027q3_token_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2027q3_token_deferred_ending	2027Q3 / upside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_token_deferred_ending, upside_2027q3_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2027q3_recurring_other	2027Q3 / upside	105.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2027q3_other_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	105.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_recurring_other, upside_2027q3_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2027q3_revenue	2027Q3 / upside	1,326.61 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_reserve_income, upside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2027q3_retained_margin	2027Q3 / upside	44.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2027q3_net_reserve	2027Q3 / upside	537.51 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_reserve_income, upside_2027q3_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q3 / upside	642.51 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_net_reserve, upside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2027q3_other_direct_cost	2027Q3 / upside	7.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2027q3_rldc	2027Q3 / upside	635.51 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2027q3_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex	2027Q3 / upside	242.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda	2027Q3 / upside	393.51 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_rldc, upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2027q3_sbc	2027Q3 / upside	76.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2027q3_payroll	2027Q3 / upside	12.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2027q3_da	2027Q3 / upside	40.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2027q3_legal	2027Q3 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2027q3_integration	2027Q3 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments	2027Q3 / upside	142.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_payroll, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_legal, upside_2027q3_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income	2027Q3 / upside	251.51 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection upside_2027q3_presale_receipt	2027Q3 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income upside_2027q3_corporate_interest	2027Q3 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses	2027Q3 / upside	407.51 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_corporate_interest, upside_2027q3_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax upside_2027q3_cash_tax	2027Q3 / upside	23.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2027q3_working_capital_use	2027Q3 / upside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments	2027Q3 / upside	81.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_token_revenue, upside_2027q3_payroll, upside_2027q3_legal, upside_2027q3_integration, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / upside	326.51 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q3_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2027q3_software	2027Q3 / upside	30.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2027q3_ppe	2027Q3 / upside	10.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / upside	40.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_software, upside_2027q3_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / upside	286.51 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2027q3_award_withholding	2027Q3 / upside	145.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims	2027Q3 / upside	141.51 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_award_withholding).
Average USDC circulation upside_2027q4_average_usdc	2027Q4 / upside	162,000.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average circulation / Q2 upside_2027q4_circulation_index	2027Q4 / upside	211.7% ratio	derived: Average earning reserves, not quarter-end or payment volume. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_average_usdc, q2_average_usdc).
Annual reserve return rate upside_2027q4_reserve_rate	2027Q4 / upside	3.5% ratio	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Reserve rate / Q2 upside_2027q4_yield_index	2027Q4 / upside	100.0% ratio	derived: Scenario rate, not a current market quote. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_reserve_rate, q2_reserve_rate).
Reserve income upside_2027q4_reserve_income	2027Q4 / upside	1,413.58 USD_millions	derived: Q2-normalized reserve income absorbs rounded rate, reserve mix and day count. Formula: multiply(q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q4_circulation_index, upside_2027q4_yield_index).
ARC presale recognition upside_2027q4_token_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk satisfaction/timing scenario within original presale total. Mainnet and genesis mint do not by themselves confirm GAAP recognition.
Unrecognized original presale revenue upside_2027q4_token_deferred_ending	2027Q4 / upside	-0.00 USD_millions	derived: All scenarios stay nonnegative; no new token sales. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_token_deferred_ending, upside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Services and transaction revenue upside_2027q4_recurring_other	2027Q4 / upside	128.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other revenue upside_2027q4_other_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	128.00 USD_millions	derived: Token presale recognition separated from recurring business. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_recurring_other, upside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Total revenue and reserve income upside_2027q4_revenue	2027Q4 / upside	1,541.58 USD_millions	derived: No holder reserve balance or token supply counted as revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_reserve_income, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Retained reserve margin upside_2027q4_retained_margin	2027Q4 / upside	45.0% ratio	assumption: Blended distribution/mix assumption; base H2 calibrated to annual RLDC midpoint, not a Coinbase contract term.
Reserve income after distribution costs upside_2027q4_net_reserve	2027Q4 / upside	636.11 USD_millions	derived: Distribution costs decline with lower reserve yield in this sensitivity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_reserve_income, upside_2027q4_retained_margin).
Retained reserve plus other revenue upside_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost	2027Q4 / upside	764.11 USD_millions	derived: No extra retained return on stablecoin holder principal. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_net_reserve, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Other direct transaction/services cost upside_2027q4_other_direct_cost	2027Q4 / upside	7.50 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Revenue less distribution and transaction costs upside_2027q4_rldc	2027Q4 / upside	756.61 USD_millions	derived: Retained-margin calibration is separate from service growth. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_contribution_before_other_cost, upside_2027q4_other_direct_cost).
Adjusted operating expense upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex	2027Q4 / upside	280.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda	2027Q4 / upside	476.61 USD_millions	derived: Base annual adjusted expense matches $577.5M midpoint; no nonroutine other income assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_rldc, upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
SBC expense upside_2027q4_sbc	2027Q4 / upside	80.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Employer payroll tax on equity upside_2027q4_payroll	2027Q4 / upside	13.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
D&A including software amortization upside_2027q4_da	2027Q4 / upside	42.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash legal expense excluded from EBITDA upside_2027q4_legal	2027Q4 / upside	9.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash integration expense upside_2027q4_integration	2027Q4 / upside	5.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted expense exclusions upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments	2027Q4 / upside	149.00 USD_millions	derived: No digital-asset gain, noncash charity or redemption liability mark assumed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_payroll, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_legal, upside_2027q4_integration).
GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income	2027Q4 / upside	327.61 USD_millions	derived: Retains compensation and software costs in GAAP earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Additional original presale collection upside_2027q4_presale_receipt	2027Q4 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate cash interest income upside_2027q4_corporate_interest	2027Q4 / upside	14.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted profit corporate interest and unpaid presale receipt upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses	2027Q4 / upside	490.61 USD_millions	derived: Reserve income is already in earnings; corporate interest is separate. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_corporate_interest, upside_2027q4_presale_receipt).
Cash income tax upside_2027q4_cash_tax	2027Q4 / upside	25.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other operating cash use upside_2027q4_working_capital_use	2027Q4 / upside	35.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Previously collected token revenue and cash uses upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments	2027Q4 / upside	87.00 USD_millions	derived: Reverse token recognition to avoid collecting H1 advance cash twice. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_token_revenue, upside_2027q4_payroll, upside_2027q4_legal, upside_2027q4_integration, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_working_capital_use).
Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / upside	403.61 USD_millions	derived: Cash tax, payroll and excluded legal costs remain real operating uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_uses, upside_2027q4_cash_adjustments).
Cash capitalized software upside_2027q4_software	2027Q4 / upside	32.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E upside_2027q4_ppe	2027Q4 / upside	11.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash PP&E and software upside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / upside	43.00 USD_millions	derived: Capitalized SBC is not cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_software, upside_2027q4_ppe).
CFO less PP&E and software upside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / upside	360.61 USD_millions	derived: Contains only actual-period modeled cash receipts. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Employee award settlement cash upside_2027q4_award_withholding	2027Q4 / upside	170.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash after employee withholding upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims	2027Q4 / upside	190.61 USD_millions	derived: Before investments and financing receipts; Tazapay stock consideration is not a $400M cash outflow. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_award_withholding).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue	FY2026 / upside	3,217.31 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) upside_fy2026_reserve_income	FY2026 / upside	2,794.90 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_reserve_income, upside_2026q3_reserve_income, upside_2026q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) upside_fy2026_other_revenue	FY2026 / upside	422.41 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) upside_fy2026_token_revenue	FY2026 / upside	242.20 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_token_revenue, upside_2026q3_token_revenue, upside_2026q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) upside_fy2026_rldc	FY2026 / upside	1,518.01 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_rldc, upside_2026q3_rldc, upside_2026q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda	FY2026 / upside	917.69 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income	FY2026 / upside	467.17 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / upside	847.32 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) upside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / upside	105.15 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / upside	742.16 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) upside_fy2026_award_withholding	FY2026 / upside	334.50 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_award_withholding, upside_2026q3_award_withholding, upside_2026q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims	FY2026 / upside	407.67 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue and reserve income ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue	FY2027 / upside	4,970.04 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Reserve income ($M) upside_fy2027_reserve_income	FY2027 / upside	4,581.04 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_reserve_income, upside_2027q2_reserve_income, upside_2027q3_reserve_income, upside_2027q4_reserve_income).
Other revenue including token recognition ($M) upside_fy2027_other_revenue	FY2027 / upside	389.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
ARC presale revenue recognition ($M) upside_fy2027_token_revenue	FY2027 / upside	0.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_token_revenue, upside_2027q2_token_revenue, upside_2027q3_token_revenue, upside_2027q4_token_revenue).
Revenue less distribution/transaction costs ($M) upside_fy2027_rldc	FY2027 / upside	2,363.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_rldc, upside_2027q2_rldc, upside_2027q3_rldc, upside_2027q4_rldc).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda	FY2027 / upside	1,446.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income	FY2027 / upside	892.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / upside	1,190.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E and software ($M) upside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / upside	154.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E/software ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / upside	1,036.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Cash equity-award withholding ($M) upside_fy2027_award_withholding	FY2027 / upside	550.00 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_award_withholding, upside_2027q2_award_withholding, upside_2027q3_award_withholding, upside_2027q4_award_withholding).
Cash after award withholding ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims	FY2027 / upside	486.35 USD_millions	derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

Stablecoin reserves support redemption liabilities. Cash segregated for external stablecoin holders is not corporate cash, and onchain payment volume is not company revenue. Average circulation, end-period circulation and annualized payment volume are different measures.
The reported 3.5% reserve-return rate is rounded and covers the company reserve-income perimeter. Normalization to Q2 absorbs reserve mix and period-day effects; the model is a sensitivity, not a precise treasury-portfolio forecast.
Retained reserve margin combines distribution agreements, platform mix and transaction expense. It is not a contractual Coinbase take rate. Base margin is a calibration to annual RLDC outlook, not independent proof of future distribution economics.
Arc public mainnet launched September 16 and tokens were minted, but that is not a commitment to public token launch or proof-of-stake completion. Base $160M FY2026 presale recognition is a desk allocation within other-revenue guidance; actual satisfaction of accounting performance obligations still requires the next filing.
Presale proceeds were about $242.2M, of which $222M was received by June. Remaining receipt/recognition figures use those rounded disclosures. Timing cases never recognize more than the original proceeds and do not collect the same cash twice.
Presale agreements contain repayment rights, including specified delivery/proof-of-stake conditions by May 8, 2028. No new token sale, token market-value gain or value for the full minted token supply is added.
Tazapay was an agreement to acquire, subject to conditions, with approximately $400M stock consideration adjusted at closing. No acquired revenue or $400M cash purchase is assumed; dilution and purchase accounting remain unmodeled.
Forecast excludes acquisitions, discretionary investments, stock-option/ESPP proceeds and a full ownership bridge. Award withholding differs from employer payroll taxes. No EPS or parent valuation is presented.

Reserve economics beneath token-sale revenue

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

How much recurring corporate cash survives reserve-rate pressure, distribution costs and equity claims?

Q2 average USDC was $76.524B versus $73.269B at period end. Reserve income $667.7M and other revenue $33.6M produced total $701.3M. H1 adjusted EBITDA under the current definition was $294.9M versus operating income $79.4M. CFO $538.5M contained $222M ARC presale cash; CFO less PP&E/software was $492.4M, or $270.4M excluding that receipt. Award withholding used another $149.5M. External holder reserves are redemption assets, not corporate liquidity. Annual outlook includes $310-330M other revenue, 41.7-43.7% RLDC margin and $570-585M adjusted expenses. Arc mainnet launched September 16; genesis mint does not confirm public token launch or accounting recognition. Tazapay is a proposed approximately $400M stock acquisition, with no acquired sales assumed here.

The competing explanation

Circulation can rise while reserve yields fall or distribution partners absorb more income. Presale revenue can improve reported margins after its cash has already arrived, and future token obligations can create repayment risk.

Risks to track

Interest rates and circulation interact nonlinearly with revenue.
Distribution terms and platform mix affect retained reserve economics.
ARC recognition, launch conditions and repayment rights create timing risk.
New payment infrastructure may monetize more slowly than adoption headlines.
Equity costs and acquisition dilution affect common-owner outcomes.

Next checkpoints

Reserve economics · Next quarterly filing (estimated). Compare average circulation, reserve return, distribution costs and recurring fees.
ARC accounting · Q3 filing after September mainnet launch (estimated). Confirm performance obligations, revenue recognition, cash collection and remaining deferred liability.
Tazapay conditions · Closing announcement or next filing (estimated). Confirm closing, stock issued, purchase accounting and integration expenses.

Data coverage and open work

Stablecoin reserves support redemption liabilities. Cash segregated for external stablecoin holders is not corporate cash, and onchain payment volume is not company revenue. Average circulation, end-period circulation and annualized payment volume are different measures.
The reported 3.5% reserve-return rate is rounded and covers the company reserve-income perimeter. Normalization to Q2 absorbs reserve mix and period-day effects; the model is a sensitivity, not a precise treasury-portfolio forecast.
Retained reserve margin combines distribution agreements, platform mix and transaction expense. It is not a contractual Coinbase take rate. Base margin is a calibration to annual RLDC outlook, not independent proof of future distribution economics.
Arc public mainnet launched September 16 and tokens were minted, but that is not a commitment to public token launch or proof-of-stake completion. Base $160M FY2026 presale recognition is a desk allocation within other-revenue guidance; actual satisfaction of accounting performance obligations still requires the next filing.
Presale proceeds were about $242.2M, of which $222M was received by June. Remaining receipt/recognition figures use those rounded disclosures. Timing cases never recognize more than the original proceeds and do not collect the same cash twice.
Presale agreements contain repayment rights, including specified delivery/proof-of-stake conditions by May 8, 2028. No new token sale, token market-value gain or value for the full minted token supply is added.
Tazapay was an agreement to acquire, subject to conditions, with approximately $400M stock consideration adjusted at closing. No acquired revenue or $400M cash purchase is assumed; dilution and purchase accounting remain unmodeled.
Forecast excludes acquisitions, discretionary investments, stock-option/ESPP proceeds and a full ownership bridge. Award withholding differs from employer payroll taxes. No EPS or parent valuation is presented.

This review: Added reserve-rate/distribution scenarios, separate ARC recognition/receipt bridge and employee equity cash.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed strong, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in points	Low	Middle	High	Share up
1 session	-3.1	+0.0	+3.3	51%
5 sessions	-8.2	-0.1	+8.5	49%
10 sessions	-10.6	-0.1	+13.0	49%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days)

Provenance

[1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[2] derived: Revenues, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[3] reported: Revenues, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[4] reported: Revenues, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[6] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[7] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[8] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[9] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[10] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[11] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[12] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[23] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[24] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[25] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[26] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[27] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[28] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[29] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[30] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-25-000047, 10-Q filed 2025-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000062, 10-K filed 2026-03-09; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000150, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json
[34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001876042-26-000248, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T23:49:20+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001876042.json

What the author read

Q2 filing, reserves and ARC deferred revenue · retrieved 2026-09-19
Q2 earnings and revised annual outlook · retrieved 2026-09-19
September 16 mainnet and genesis mint update · retrieved 2026-09-19
September Tazapay share purchase agreement · retrieved 2026-09-19

Compiled 2026-09-19T23:49:21.156338+00:00 · authored f643e39720fd · generated 907c8206e6ff · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard