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Not a forecast; no side."},"schema":"company_file.v1","thesis":{"view":"Stablecoin adoption and lower interest rates affect earnings in different directions. Separate reserve income retained after partner costs from token-sale accounting and corporate cash after equity settlement.","scenario_ranges":"Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.","what_changes_it":"Track average USDC, reserve return, distribution costs, other-revenue composition and deferred-token cash before treating revenue growth as recurring cash."},"no_side":true,"sources":[{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm","title":"Q2 filing, reserves and ARC deferred revenue","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000246/augustepr-circle_q22026f.htm","title":"Q2 earnings and revised annual outlook","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.circle.com/pressroom/circle-launches-arc-mainnet-an-economic-operating-system-for-the-internet","title":"September 16 mainnet and genesis mint update","retrieved":"2026-09-19"},{"url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000267/crcl-20260904.htm","title":"September Tazapay share purchase agreement","retrieved":"2026-09-19"}],"business":{"drivers":["Average stablecoin circulation, reserve yield and retained margin","Recurring infrastructure revenue versus ARC presale recognition","Software investment, cash payroll and employee withholding"],"description":"Circle earns reserve income on stablecoin assets and revenue from financial infrastructure services. Distribution partners receive a significant share of reserve economics. Corporate cash generation also depends on software investment, equity compensation and the timing of token-sale receipts and revenue recognition."},"earnings":{"source":"estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days","next_report_date":"2026-11-03"},"identity":{"cik":1876042,"sic":"6199","name":"Circle Internet Group, Inc.","symbol":"CRCL","cluster":"Financials & fintech","exchange":"NYSE"},"research":{"risks":["Interest rates and circulation interact nonlinearly with revenue.","Distribution terms and platform mix affect retained reserve economics.","ARC recognition, launch conditions and repayment rights create timing risk.","New payment infrastructure may monetize more slowly than adoption headlines.","Equity costs and acquisition dilution affect common-owner outcomes."],"title":"Reserve economics beneath token-sale revenue","question":"How much recurring corporate cash survives reserve-rate pressure, distribution costs and equity claims?","economics":"Q2 average USDC was $76.524B versus $73.269B at period end. Reserve income $667.7M and other revenue $33.6M produced total $701.3M. H1 adjusted EBITDA under the current definition was $294.9M versus operating income $79.4M. CFO $538.5M contained $222M ARC presale cash; CFO less PP&E/software was $492.4M, or $270.4M excluding that receipt. Award withholding used another $149.5M. External holder reserves are redemption assets, not corporate liquidity. Annual outlook includes $310-330M other revenue, 41.7-43.7% RLDC margin and $570-585M adjusted expenses. Arc mainnet launched September 16; genesis mint does not confirm public token launch or accounting recognition. Tazapay is a proposed approximately $400M stock acquisition, with no acquired sales assumed here.","change_note":"Added reserve-rate/distribution scenarios, separate ARC recognition/receipt bridge and employee equity cash.","checkpoints":[{"event":"Reserve economics","watch":"Compare average circulation, reserve return, distribution costs and recurring fees.","timing":"Next quarterly filing","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"ARC accounting","watch":"Confirm performance obligations, revenue recognition, cash collection and remaining deferred liability.","timing":"Q3 filing after September mainnet launch","date_status":"estimated"},{"event":"Tazapay conditions","watch":"Confirm closing, stock issued, purchase accounting and integration expenses.","timing":"Closing announcement or next filing","date_status":"estimated"}],"countercase":"Circulation can rise while reserve yields fall or distribution partners absorb more income. Presale revenue can improve reported margins after its cash has already arrived, and future token obligations can create repayment risk.","limitations":["Stablecoin reserves support redemption liabilities. Cash segregated for external stablecoin holders is not corporate cash, and onchain payment volume is not company revenue. Average circulation, end-period circulation and annualized payment volume are different measures.","The reported 3.5% reserve-return rate is rounded and covers the company reserve-income perimeter. Normalization to Q2 absorbs reserve mix and period-day effects; the model is a sensitivity, not a precise treasury-portfolio forecast.","Retained reserve margin combines distribution agreements, platform mix and transaction expense. It is not a contractual Coinbase take rate. Base margin is a calibration to annual RLDC outlook, not independent proof of future distribution economics.","Arc public mainnet launched September 16 and tokens were minted, but that is not a commitment to public token launch or proof-of-stake completion. Base $160M FY2026 presale recognition is a desk allocation within other-revenue guidance; actual satisfaction of accounting performance obligations still requires the next filing.","Presale proceeds were about $242.2M, of which $222M was received by June. Remaining receipt/recognition figures use those rounded disclosures. Timing cases never recognize more than the original proceeds and do not collect the same cash twice.","Presale agreements contain repayment rights, including specified delivery/proof-of-stake conditions by May 8, 2028. No new token sale, token market-value gain or value for the full minted token supply is added.","Tazapay was an agreement to acquire, subject to conditions, with approximately $400M stock consideration adjusted at closing. No acquired revenue or $400M cash purchase is assumed; dilution and purchase accounting remain unmodeled.","Forecast excludes acquisitions, discretionary investments, stock-option/ESPP proceeds and a full ownership bridge. Award withholding differs from employer payroll taxes. No EPS or parent valuation is presented."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19"},"estimates":{"rows":[{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q3","revenue":809689534.37577},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2026Q4","revenue":641133464.6161426},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q1","revenue":765936743.6546515},{"eps":null,"as_of":"2026-09-19","basis":"Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.","class":"estimate","period":"2027Q2","revenue":749570790.1162658}],"basis":"Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Revenue and reserve income ($M).","consensus":null,"revisions":[]},"scorecard":{"inside_5d":null,"notes_scored":0,"band_coverage_5d":null},"disclosure":"All positions in the Research Model Portfolio are simulated. No real money is invested in this model. Our research is free and is not tailored to any reader's financial circumstances.","operating_model":{"cells":[{"id":"h1_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation.","label":"H1 revenue","value":1395.448,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm","source_date":"2026-08-05"},{"id":"h1_reserve_income","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions from financial statements and adjusted reconciliation.","label":"H1 reserve income","value":1320.241,"period":"H1 2026","formula":null,"source_url":"https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000248/crcl-20260630.htm","source_date":"2026-08-05"},{"id":"h1_other_revenue","case":"shared","kind":"reported","unit":"USD_millions","basis":"USD millions from financial statements and adjusted 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reserves support redemption liabilities. Cash segregated for external stablecoin holders is not corporate cash, and onchain payment volume is not company revenue. Average circulation, end-period circulation and annualized payment volume are different measures.","The reported 3.5% reserve-return rate is rounded and covers the company reserve-income perimeter. Normalization to Q2 absorbs reserve mix and period-day effects; the model is a sensitivity, not a precise treasury-portfolio forecast.","Retained reserve margin combines distribution agreements, platform mix and transaction expense. It is not a contractual Coinbase take rate. Base margin is a calibration to annual RLDC outlook, not independent proof of future distribution economics.","Arc public mainnet launched September 16 and tokens were minted, but that is not a commitment to public token launch or proof-of-stake completion. Base $160M FY2026 presale recognition is a desk allocation within other-revenue guidance; actual satisfaction of accounting performance obligations still requires the next filing.","Presale proceeds were about $242.2M, of which $222M was received by June. Remaining receipt/recognition figures use those rounded disclosures. Timing cases never recognize more than the original proceeds and do not collect the same cash twice.","Presale agreements contain repayment rights, including specified delivery/proof-of-stake conditions by May 8, 2028. No new token sale, token market-value gain or value for the full minted token supply is added.","Tazapay was an agreement to acquire, subject to conditions, with approximately $400M stock consideration adjusted at closing. No acquired revenue or $400M cash purchase is assumed; dilution and purchase accounting remain unmodeled.","Forecast excludes acquisitions, discretionary investments, stock-option/ESPP proceeds and a full ownership bridge. Award withholding differs from employer payroll taxes. No EPS or parent valuation is presented."],"reviewed_at":"2026-09-19","schema_version":"operating_model.v1"}}