ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · TRANSPORT, INDUSTRIALS & DEFENSE

$AXON

Axon Enterprise, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 3480 · CIK 1069183 · revision 7 as of 2026-09-19

All companies · Free for people and agents · JSON · Download model CSV · Operating scenarios

Business

Axon sells connected devices and software for public safety and adjacent markets. TASER devices, cameras, drones and other hardware bring data into evidence management, real-time operations and workflow software. Contracts can bundle equipment and recurring services over multiple years. Growth comes from more customers, users, products and workflows; profit depends on software/device mix, service delivery costs and investment in development and sales. Stock compensation, acquisitions and financing affect how much business progress ultimately belongs to each share.

Three drivers

Customer and workflow expansion drive recurring software revenue and retention.
Software, services and device mix determine gross margin and the cost of scaling the platform.
Stock compensation, acquisitions and convertible financing affect cash and diluted ownership.

Thesis

Our view

Axon’s strongest economic attribute is expanding from devices into recurring workflows within a customer. The question is how much reaches durable GAAP earnings and cash per share. We separate software from device growth, and recurring metrics from recognized revenue. Bookings support visibility but do not make every future sale unconditional. September financing increases prospective flexibility at an explicit cost; no regular coupon does not mean free capital.

What changes it

Software growth with stable service margins, better cash conversion and controlled dilution would strengthen the case. Slower expansion, persistent margin pressure, working-capital absorption or spending that outpaces recurring gross profit would weaken it.

Scenario ranges

The operating scenarios above vary named business assumptions. They are not price targets, probabilities, or the short-horizon historical memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter	2024Q3 2024-09-30	2024Q4 2024-12-31	2025Q1 2025-03-31	2025Q2 2025-06-30	2025Q3 2025-09-30	2025Q4 2025-12-31	2026Q1 2026-03-31	2026Q2 2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)	544.3¹	575.1†²	603.6³	668.5⁴	710.6¹	796.7†²	807.3³	904.4⁴
Gross profit ($M)	330.7⁵	345.8†⁶	365.7⁷	403.7⁸	427.3⁵	461.3†⁶	477.3⁷	546.4⁸
Operating income ($M)	24.1⁹	-15.8†¹⁰	-8.8¹¹	-1.0¹²	-2.1⁹	-50.1†¹⁰	29.2¹¹	46.8¹²
Net income ($M)	67.0¹³	135.2†¹⁴	88.0¹⁵	36.1¹⁵	-2.2¹³	2.7†¹⁴	169.3¹⁵	29.4¹⁵
EPS, diluted ($)	0.86¹⁶	—	1.08¹⁷	0.44¹⁸	-0.03¹⁶	—	2.05¹⁷	0.36¹⁸
Diluted shares (M)	78.1¹⁹	—	81.5²⁰	82.1²¹	78.4¹⁹	—	82.5²⁰	82.5²¹
Cash ($M)	695.1²²	454.8²³	1,092.9²⁴	615.5²⁵	1,423.9²²	1,201.1²⁵	458.9²⁴	597.7²⁵
Long-term debt ($M)	—	0.0²⁶	1,727.8²⁷	1,728.6²⁸	1,729.4²⁹	1,730.2³⁰	1,731.0³¹	1,731.8³⁰
Cash from operations ($M)	91.3†³²	250.2†³³	25.8³⁴	-91.7†³⁵	60.0†³²	217.2†³³	-31.5³⁴	20.1†³⁵
Capex ($M)	26.5†³⁶	24.8†³⁷	24.9³⁸	23.0†³⁹	26.6†³⁶	61.8†³⁷	23.1³⁸	21.0†³⁹
Free cash flow ($M)	64.8†⁴⁰	225.4†⁴¹	0.9†⁴²	-114.7†⁴³	33.4†⁴⁰	155.4†⁴¹	-54.6†⁴²	-1.0†⁴³

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

Period	Revenue ($M)	EPS ($)	As of	Basis
2026Q3	966.6	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4	1,033.2	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1	1,104.5	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2	1,180.8	—	2026-09-19	Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.

Axon: recurring growth, margins and cash scenarios

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Software & Services and Connected Devices start from Q2 sales. Each case compounds separate sequential revenue factors for six quarters, applies segment gross margins and a GAAP expense ratio, then computes operating income. FY2026 adds H1 actuals to Q3/Q4; FY2027 sums four quarters. Cash has a separate assumption. Disclosed adjusted EBITDA margin is context and is never substituted for GAAP operating margin.

Reported anchors and guidance

Measure	Period	Value	Basis
Software & Services Q2 revenue	2026Q2	397.84	reported. Includes professional services. Source · 2026-08-05
Connected Devices Q2 revenue	2026Q2	506.55	reported. Reported segment. Source · 2026-08-05
Annual recurring revenue	2026Q2	1,639.00	reported. Annualized recurring contract value, not quarterly GAAP revenue. Source · 2026-08-05
Net revenue retention	2026Q2	126.0%	reported. Software-focused metric; excludes hardware and normalizes deployments. Source · 2026-08-05
Future contracted bookings	2026Q2	15,100.00	reported. Includes some contracts with termination clauses; not all is GAAP remaining performance obligations. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 revenue-growth guidance low	FY2026	32.0%	management guidance. Year-over-year growth outlook as of August 5. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 revenue-growth guidance high	FY2026	34.0%	management guidance. Year-over-year growth outlook as of August 5. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance	FY2026	25.5%	management guidance. Non-GAAP; distinct from modeled GAAP operating margin. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 stock-compensation guidance low	FY2026	590.00	management guidance. Company expense outlook; included in GAAP expenses. Source · 2026-08-05
Base convert estimated net proceeds	September 2026	986.00	management guidance. After offering costs, before capped calls; $1B base issuance. Source · 2026-09-17
Base capped-call cost	September 2026	99.90	management guidance. Cash cost of the hedge; additional issuance adds cost. Source · 2026-09-17
Base proceeds after capped calls	September 2026	886.10	derived. Estimated proceeds for other corporate purposes; not free cash flow.

Downside scenario

Period	Operating cash ($M)	Capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Gross profit ($M)	Cash after capex ($M)	GAAP operating income ($M)
2026Q3	27.49	72.91	916.32	521.79	-45.42	17.81
2026Q4	27.86	72.91	928.62	530.15	-45.05	19.41
2027Q1	28.24	55.00	941.28	538.76	-26.76	21.06
2027Q2	28.63	55.00	954.32	547.63	-26.37	22.75
FY2026	43.91	190.00	3,556.68	2,075.67	-146.09	113.24
FY2027	115.35	220.00	3,844.94	2,209.32	-104.65	94.60

Base scenario

Period	Operating cash ($M)	Capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Gross profit ($M)	Cash after capex ($M)	GAAP operating income ($M)
2026Q3	86.99	65.41	966.61	577.83	21.58	55.86
2026Q4	92.99	65.41	1,033.20	618.69	27.57	60.76
2027Q1	99.40	50.00	1,104.47	662.49	49.40	66.08
2027Q2	106.27	50.00	1,180.76	709.46	56.27	71.84
FY2026	168.54	175.00	3,711.54	2,220.25	-6.46	192.64
FY2027	440.78	200.00	4,897.54	2,945.59	240.78	300.92

Upside scenario

Period	Operating cash ($M)	Capex ($M)	Revenue ($M)	Gross profit ($M)	Cash after capex ($M)	GAAP operating income ($M)
2026Q3	139.12	57.91	993.74	618.31	81.21	91.63
2026Q4	152.88	57.91	1,092.01	680.58	94.97	101.82
2027Q1	168.01	50.00	1,200.09	749.19	118.01	113.14
2027Q2	184.66	50.00	1,318.98	824.78	134.66	125.72
FY2026	280.57	160.00	3,797.48	2,322.63	120.57	269.47
FY2027	778.75	200.00	5,562.51	3,481.89	578.75	533.76

All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model

Input / calculation	Period / case	Value / unit	Evidence or assumption
Software & Services Q2 revenue q2_sw	2026Q2 / shared	397.84 USD_millions	reported: Includes professional services. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Connected Devices Q2 revenue q2_hw	2026Q2 / shared	506.55 USD_millions	reported: Reported segment. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Annual recurring revenue q2_arr	2026Q2 / shared	1,639.00 USD_millions	reported: Annualized recurring contract value, not quarterly GAAP revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Net revenue retention q2_nrr	2026Q2 / shared	126.0% ratio	reported: Software-focused metric; excludes hardware and normalizes deployments. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Future contracted bookings q2_bookings	2026Q2 / shared	15,100.00 USD_millions	reported: Includes some contracts with termination clauses; not all is GAAP remaining performance obligations. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 revenue-growth guidance low guide_growth_low	FY2026 / shared	32.0% ratio	management guidance: Year-over-year growth outlook as of August 5. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 revenue-growth guidance high guide_growth_high	FY2026 / shared	34.0% ratio	management guidance: Year-over-year growth outlook as of August 5. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA margin guidance guide_adj_margin	FY2026 / shared	25.5% ratio	management guidance: Non-GAAP; distinct from modeled GAAP operating margin. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 stock-compensation guidance low guide_sbc_low	FY2026 / shared	590.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company expense outlook; included in GAAP expenses. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 stock-compensation guidance high guide_sbc_high	FY2026 / shared	620.00 USD_millions	management guidance: Company expense outlook; included in GAAP expenses. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Base convert estimated net proceeds convert_net	September 2026 / shared	986.00 USD_millions	management guidance: After offering costs, before capped calls; $1B base issuance. Primary source · 2026-09-17
Base capped-call cost convert_call	September 2026 / shared	99.90 USD_millions	management guidance: Cash cost of the hedge; additional issuance adds cost. Primary source · 2026-09-17
Base proceeds after capped calls convert_available	September 2026 / shared	886.10 USD_millions	derived: Estimated proceeds for other corporate purposes; not free cash flow. Formula: subtract(convert_net, convert_call).
H1 revenue h1_rev	2026 H1 / shared	1,711.73 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated first-half statements. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 gross profit h1_gp	2026 H1 / shared	1,023.73 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated first-half statements. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 operating income h1_op	2026 H1 / shared	76.02 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated first-half statements. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 operating cash h1_cfo	2026 H1 / shared	-11.44 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated first-half statements. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 PP&E capex h1_capex	2026 H1 / shared	44.17 USD_millions	reported: Reported consolidated first-half statements. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Sequential software revenue factor downside_sw_growth	Forward quarters / downside	103.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter segment revenue times this factor; 1.08 means 8% sequential growth.
Sequential device revenue factor downside_hw_growth	Forward quarters / downside	100.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter Connected Devices revenue times this factor.
Software & Services gross margin downside_sw_margin	Forward quarters / downside	68.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 was 71.3%, with service mix affecting the result.
Connected Devices gross margin downside_hw_margin	Forward quarters / downside	48.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 51.9% benefited from tariff refunds, so base does not repeat it.
GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_opex_ratio	Forward quarters / downside	55.0% ratio	assumption: Includes R&D, SG&A and equity compensation. Q2 opex $499.669M on sales $904.389M.
Operating-cash / revenue assumption downside_cash_ratio	Forward quarters / downside	3.0% ratio	assumption: Separate collection and working-capital sensitivity; adjusted EBITDA is not cash.
FY2026 capex case downside_annual_capex26	FY2026 / downside	190.00 USD_millions	assumption: Within company $160M–$190M outlook; excludes a new headquarters as guidance does.
FY2027 capex assumption downside_annual_capex27	FY2027 / downside	220.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk extension for capacity and products; not guidance. Excludes unmodeled headquarters costs.
H2 capex allocation downside_half	Allocation / downside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Equal division of remaining annual capex.
FY2027 capex allocation downside_quarter	Allocation / downside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Equal quarterly allocation.
Remaining FY2026 capex downside_capex_h2	2026 H2 / downside	145.83 USD_millions	derived: Annual case less H1 spend. Formula: subtract(downside_annual_capex26, h1_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2026q3_sw	2026Q3 / downside	409.77 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2026q3_sw_gp	2026Q3 / downside	278.64 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2026q3_hw	2026Q3 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2026q3_hw_gp	2026Q3 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2026q3_rev	2026Q3 / downside	916.32 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sw, downside_2026q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2026q3_gp	2026Q3 / downside	521.79 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sw_gp, downside_2026q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / downside	503.98 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2026q3_op	2026Q3 / downside	17.81 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gp, downside_2026q3_opex).
Operating cash downside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / downside	27.49 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / downside	72.91 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_capex_h2, downside_half).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / downside	-45.42 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2026q4_sw	2026Q4 / downside	422.06 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2026q4_sw_gp	2026Q4 / downside	287.00 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2026q4_hw	2026Q4 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2026q4_hw_gp	2026Q4 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2026q4_rev	2026Q4 / downside	928.62 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sw, downside_2026q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2026q4_gp	2026Q4 / downside	530.15 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sw_gp, downside_2026q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / downside	510.74 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2026q4_op	2026Q4 / downside	19.41 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gp, downside_2026q4_opex).
Operating cash downside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / downside	27.86 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / downside	72.91 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_capex_h2, downside_half).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / downside	-45.05 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2027q1_sw	2027Q1 / downside	434.73 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2027q1_sw_gp	2027Q1 / downside	295.61 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2027q1_hw	2027Q1 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2027q1_hw_gp	2027Q1 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2027q1_rev	2027Q1 / downside	941.28 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sw, downside_2027q1_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q1_gp	2027Q1 / downside	538.76 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sw_gp, downside_2027q1_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / downside	517.70 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2027q1_op	2027Q1 / downside	21.06 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gp, downside_2027q1_opex).
Operating cash downside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / downside	28.24 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_capex27, downside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / downside	-26.76 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2027q2_sw	2027Q2 / downside	447.77 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2027q2_sw_gp	2027Q2 / downside	304.48 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2027q2_hw	2027Q2 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2027q2_hw_gp	2027Q2 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2027q2_rev	2027Q2 / downside	954.32 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sw, downside_2027q2_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q2_gp	2027Q2 / downside	547.63 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sw_gp, downside_2027q2_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / downside	524.88 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2027q2_op	2027Q2 / downside	22.75 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gp, downside_2027q2_opex).
Operating cash downside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / downside	28.63 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_capex27, downside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / downside	-26.37 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2027q3_sw	2027Q3 / downside	461.20 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2027q3_sw_gp	2027Q3 / downside	313.62 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2027q3_hw	2027Q3 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2027q3_hw_gp	2027Q3 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2027q3_rev	2027Q3 / downside	967.75 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sw, downside_2027q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q3_gp	2027Q3 / downside	556.76 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sw_gp, downside_2027q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / downside	532.26 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2027q3_op	2027Q3 / downside	24.50 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gp, downside_2027q3_opex).
Operating cash downside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / downside	29.03 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_capex27, downside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / downside	-25.97 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue downside_2027q4_sw	2027Q4 / downside	475.04 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_sw, downside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit downside_2027q4_sw_gp	2027Q4 / downside	323.03 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_sw, downside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue downside_2027q4_hw	2027Q4 / downside	506.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_hw, downside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit downside_2027q4_hw_gp	2027Q4 / downside	243.15 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_hw, downside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue downside_2027q4_rev	2027Q4 / downside	981.59 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sw, downside_2027q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q4_gp	2027Q4 / downside	566.17 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sw_gp, downside_2027q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / downside	539.87 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_rev, downside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income downside_2027q4_op	2027Q4 / downside	26.30 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gp, downside_2027q4_opex).
Operating cash downside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / downside	29.45 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_rev, downside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex downside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / downside	55.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_capex27, downside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex downside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / downside	-25.55 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 rev downside_fy2026_rev	FY2026 / downside	3,556.68 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_rev, downside_2026q3_rev, downside_2026q4_rev).
FY2026 gp downside_fy2026_gp	FY2026 / downside	2,075.67 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_gp, downside_2026q3_gp, downside_2026q4_gp).
FY2026 op downside_fy2026_op	FY2026 / downside	113.24 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_op, downside_2026q3_op, downside_2026q4_op).
FY2026 cfo downside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / downside	43.91 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 capex downside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / downside	190.00 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex downside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / downside	-146.09 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2026_cfo, downside_fy2026_capex).
FY2027 rev downside_fy2027_rev	FY2027 / downside	3,844.94 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_rev, downside_2027q2_rev, downside_2027q3_rev, downside_2027q4_rev).
FY2027 gp downside_fy2027_gp	FY2027 / downside	2,209.32 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gp, downside_2027q2_gp, downside_2027q3_gp, downside_2027q4_gp).
FY2027 op downside_fy2027_op	FY2027 / downside	94.60 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_op, downside_2027q2_op, downside_2027q3_op, downside_2027q4_op).
FY2027 cfo downside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / downside	115.35 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 capex downside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / downside	220.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex downside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / downside	-104.65 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy2027_cfo, downside_fy2027_capex).
Sequential software revenue factor base_sw_growth	Forward quarters / base	108.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter segment revenue times this factor; 1.08 means 8% sequential growth.
Sequential device revenue factor base_hw_growth	Forward quarters / base	106.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter Connected Devices revenue times this factor.
Software & Services gross margin base_sw_margin	Forward quarters / base	72.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 was 71.3%, with service mix affecting the result.
Connected Devices gross margin base_hw_margin	Forward quarters / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 51.9% benefited from tariff refunds, so base does not repeat it.
GAAP operating expense / revenue base_opex_ratio	Forward quarters / base	54.0% ratio	assumption: Includes R&D, SG&A and equity compensation. Q2 opex $499.669M on sales $904.389M.
Operating-cash / revenue assumption base_cash_ratio	Forward quarters / base	9.0% ratio	assumption: Separate collection and working-capital sensitivity; adjusted EBITDA is not cash.
FY2026 capex case base_annual_capex26	FY2026 / base	175.00 USD_millions	assumption: Within company $160M–$190M outlook; excludes a new headquarters as guidance does.
FY2027 capex assumption base_annual_capex27	FY2027 / base	200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk extension for capacity and products; not guidance. Excludes unmodeled headquarters costs.
H2 capex allocation base_half	Allocation / base	50.0% ratio	assumption: Equal division of remaining annual capex.
FY2027 capex allocation base_quarter	Allocation / base	25.0% ratio	assumption: Equal quarterly allocation.
Remaining FY2026 capex base_capex_h2	2026 H2 / base	130.83 USD_millions	derived: Annual case less H1 spend. Formula: subtract(base_annual_capex26, h1_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2026q3_sw	2026Q3 / base	429.66 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2026q3_sw_gp	2026Q3 / base	309.36 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2026q3_hw	2026Q3 / base	536.95 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2026q3_hw_gp	2026Q3 / base	268.47 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2026q3_rev	2026Q3 / base	966.61 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sw, base_2026q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2026q3_gp	2026Q3 / base	577.83 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sw_gp, base_2026q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / base	521.97 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2026q3_op	2026Q3 / base	55.86 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gp, base_2026q3_opex).
Operating cash base_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / base	86.99 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / base	65.41 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_capex_h2, base_half).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / base	21.58 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2026q4_sw	2026Q4 / base	464.04 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2026q4_sw_gp	2026Q4 / base	334.11 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2026q4_hw	2026Q4 / base	569.16 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2026q4_hw_gp	2026Q4 / base	284.58 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2026q4_rev	2026Q4 / base	1,033.20 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sw, base_2026q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2026q4_gp	2026Q4 / base	618.69 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sw_gp, base_2026q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / base	557.93 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2026q4_op	2026Q4 / base	60.76 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gp, base_2026q4_opex).
Operating cash base_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / base	92.99 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / base	65.41 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_capex_h2, base_half).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / base	27.57 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2027q1_sw	2027Q1 / base	501.16 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2027q1_sw_gp	2027Q1 / base	360.83 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2027q1_hw	2027Q1 / base	603.31 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2027q1_hw_gp	2027Q1 / base	301.66 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2027q1_rev	2027Q1 / base	1,104.47 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sw, base_2027q1_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2027q1_gp	2027Q1 / base	662.49 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sw_gp, base_2027q1_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / base	596.41 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2027q1_op	2027Q1 / base	66.08 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gp, base_2027q1_opex).
Operating cash base_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / base	99.40 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / base	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_annual_capex27, base_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / base	49.40 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2027q2_sw	2027Q2 / base	541.25 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2027q2_sw_gp	2027Q2 / base	389.70 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2027q2_hw	2027Q2 / base	639.51 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2027q2_hw_gp	2027Q2 / base	319.76 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2027q2_rev	2027Q2 / base	1,180.76 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sw, base_2027q2_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2027q2_gp	2027Q2 / base	709.46 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sw_gp, base_2027q2_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / base	637.61 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2027q2_op	2027Q2 / base	71.84 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gp, base_2027q2_opex).
Operating cash base_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / base	106.27 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / base	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_annual_capex27, base_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / base	56.27 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2027q3_sw	2027Q3 / base	584.55 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2027q3_sw_gp	2027Q3 / base	420.88 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2027q3_hw	2027Q3 / base	677.88 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2027q3_hw_gp	2027Q3 / base	338.94 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2027q3_rev	2027Q3 / base	1,262.43 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sw, base_2027q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2027q3_gp	2027Q3 / base	759.82 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sw_gp, base_2027q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / base	681.71 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2027q3_op	2027Q3 / base	78.10 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gp, base_2027q3_opex).
Operating cash base_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / base	113.62 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / base	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_annual_capex27, base_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / base	63.62 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue base_2027q4_sw	2027Q4 / base	631.32 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_sw, base_sw_growth).
sw gross profit base_2027q4_sw_gp	2027Q4 / base	454.55 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_sw, base_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue base_2027q4_hw	2027Q4 / base	718.56 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_hw, base_hw_growth).
hw gross profit base_2027q4_hw_gp	2027Q4 / base	359.28 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_hw, base_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue base_2027q4_rev	2027Q4 / base	1,349.87 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sw, base_2027q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit base_2027q4_gp	2027Q4 / base	813.82 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sw_gp, base_2027q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses base_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / base	728.93 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_rev, base_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income base_2027q4_op	2027Q4 / base	84.89 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gp, base_2027q4_opex).
Operating cash base_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / base	121.49 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_rev, base_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex base_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / base	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(base_annual_capex27, base_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex base_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / base	71.49 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 rev base_fy2026_rev	FY2026 / base	3,711.54 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_rev, base_2026q3_rev, base_2026q4_rev).
FY2026 gp base_fy2026_gp	FY2026 / base	2,220.25 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_gp, base_2026q3_gp, base_2026q4_gp).
FY2026 op base_fy2026_op	FY2026 / base	192.64 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_op, base_2026q3_op, base_2026q4_op).
FY2026 cfo base_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / base	168.54 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 capex base_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / base	175.00 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex base_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / base	-6.46 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy2026_cfo, base_fy2026_capex).
FY2027 rev base_fy2027_rev	FY2027 / base	4,897.54 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_rev, base_2027q2_rev, base_2027q3_rev, base_2027q4_rev).
FY2027 gp base_fy2027_gp	FY2027 / base	2,945.59 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gp, base_2027q2_gp, base_2027q3_gp, base_2027q4_gp).
FY2027 op base_fy2027_op	FY2027 / base	300.92 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_op, base_2027q2_op, base_2027q3_op, base_2027q4_op).
FY2027 cfo base_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / base	440.78 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 capex base_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / base	200.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex base_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / base	240.78 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy2027_cfo, base_fy2027_capex).
Sequential software revenue factor upside_sw_growth	Forward quarters / upside	111.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter segment revenue times this factor; 1.08 means 8% sequential growth.
Sequential device revenue factor upside_hw_growth	Forward quarters / upside	109.0% ratio	assumption: Prior-quarter Connected Devices revenue times this factor.
Software & Services gross margin upside_sw_margin	Forward quarters / upside	75.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 was 71.3%, with service mix affecting the result.
Connected Devices gross margin upside_hw_margin	Forward quarters / upside	52.0% ratio	assumption: GAAP sensitivity; Q2 51.9% benefited from tariff refunds, so base does not repeat it.
GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_opex_ratio	Forward quarters / upside	53.0% ratio	assumption: Includes R&D, SG&A and equity compensation. Q2 opex $499.669M on sales $904.389M.
Operating-cash / revenue assumption upside_cash_ratio	Forward quarters / upside	14.0% ratio	assumption: Separate collection and working-capital sensitivity; adjusted EBITDA is not cash.
FY2026 capex case upside_annual_capex26	FY2026 / upside	160.00 USD_millions	assumption: Within company $160M–$190M outlook; excludes a new headquarters as guidance does.
FY2027 capex assumption upside_annual_capex27	FY2027 / upside	200.00 USD_millions	assumption: Desk extension for capacity and products; not guidance. Excludes unmodeled headquarters costs.
H2 capex allocation upside_half	Allocation / upside	50.0% ratio	assumption: Equal division of remaining annual capex.
FY2027 capex allocation upside_quarter	Allocation / upside	25.0% ratio	assumption: Equal quarterly allocation.
Remaining FY2026 capex upside_capex_h2	2026 H2 / upside	115.83 USD_millions	derived: Annual case less H1 spend. Formula: subtract(upside_annual_capex26, h1_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2026q3_sw	2026Q3 / upside	441.60 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2026q3_sw_gp	2026Q3 / upside	331.20 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2026q3_hw	2026Q3 / upside	552.14 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(q2_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2026q3_hw_gp	2026Q3 / upside	287.11 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2026q3_rev	2026Q3 / upside	993.74 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sw, upside_2026q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2026q3_gp	2026Q3 / upside	618.31 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sw_gp, upside_2026q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2026q3_opex	2026Q3 / upside	526.68 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2026q3_op	2026Q3 / upside	91.63 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gp, upside_2026q3_opex).
Operating cash upside_2026q3_cfo	2026Q3 / upside	139.12 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2026q3_capex	2026Q3 / upside	57.91 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_capex_h2, upside_half).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2026q3_fcf	2026Q3 / upside	81.21 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2026q4_sw	2026Q4 / upside	490.17 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2026q4_sw_gp	2026Q4 / upside	367.63 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2026q4_hw	2026Q4 / upside	601.84 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2026q4_hw_gp	2026Q4 / upside	312.95 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2026q4_rev	2026Q4 / upside	1,092.01 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sw, upside_2026q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2026q4_gp	2026Q4 / upside	680.58 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sw_gp, upside_2026q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2026q4_opex	2026Q4 / upside	578.76 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2026q4_op	2026Q4 / upside	101.82 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gp, upside_2026q4_opex).
Operating cash upside_2026q4_cfo	2026Q4 / upside	152.88 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2026q4_capex	2026Q4 / upside	57.91 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_capex_h2, upside_half).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2026q4_fcf	2026Q4 / upside	94.97 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2027q1_sw	2027Q1 / upside	544.09 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2027q1_sw_gp	2027Q1 / upside	408.07 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2027q1_hw	2027Q1 / upside	656.00 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2027q1_hw_gp	2027Q1 / upside	341.12 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2027q1_rev	2027Q1 / upside	1,200.09 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sw, upside_2027q1_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q1_gp	2027Q1 / upside	749.19 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sw_gp, upside_2027q1_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q1_opex	2027Q1 / upside	636.05 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2027q1_op	2027Q1 / upside	113.14 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gp, upside_2027q1_opex).
Operating cash upside_2027q1_cfo	2027Q1 / upside	168.01 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2027q1_capex	2027Q1 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_capex27, upside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2027q1_fcf	2027Q1 / upside	118.01 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2027q2_sw	2027Q2 / upside	603.94 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2027q2_sw_gp	2027Q2 / upside	452.96 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2027q2_hw	2027Q2 / upside	715.04 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2027q2_hw_gp	2027Q2 / upside	371.82 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2027q2_rev	2027Q2 / upside	1,318.98 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sw, upside_2027q2_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q2_gp	2027Q2 / upside	824.78 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sw_gp, upside_2027q2_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q2_opex	2027Q2 / upside	699.06 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2027q2_op	2027Q2 / upside	125.72 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gp, upside_2027q2_opex).
Operating cash upside_2027q2_cfo	2027Q2 / upside	184.66 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2027q2_capex	2027Q2 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_capex27, upside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2027q2_fcf	2027Q2 / upside	134.66 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2027q3_sw	2027Q3 / upside	670.38 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2027q3_sw_gp	2027Q3 / upside	502.78 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2027q3_hw	2027Q3 / upside	779.39 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2027q3_hw_gp	2027Q3 / upside	405.29 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2027q3_rev	2027Q3 / upside	1,449.77 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sw, upside_2027q3_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q3_gp	2027Q3 / upside	908.07 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sw_gp, upside_2027q3_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q3_opex	2027Q3 / upside	768.38 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2027q3_op	2027Q3 / upside	139.69 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gp, upside_2027q3_opex).
Operating cash upside_2027q3_cfo	2027Q3 / upside	202.97 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2027q3_capex	2027Q3 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_capex27, upside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2027q3_fcf	2027Q3 / upside	152.97 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Software & Services revenue upside_2027q4_sw	2027Q4 / upside	744.12 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_sw, upside_sw_growth).
sw gross profit upside_2027q4_sw_gp	2027Q4 / upside	558.09 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_sw, upside_sw_margin).
Connected Devices revenue upside_2027q4_hw	2027Q4 / upside	849.54 USD_millions	derived: Prior-quarter revenue times sequential growth factor. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_hw, upside_hw_growth).
hw gross profit upside_2027q4_hw_gp	2027Q4 / upside	441.76 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP segment margin assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_hw, upside_hw_margin).
Consolidated revenue upside_2027q4_rev	2027Q4 / upside	1,593.66 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment revenues. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sw, upside_2027q4_hw).
Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q4_gp	2027Q4 / upside	999.85 USD_millions	derived: Sum of segment gross profits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sw_gp, upside_2027q4_hw_gp).
GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q4_opex	2027Q4 / upside	844.64 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times GAAP expense ratio, including stock compensation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_rev, upside_opex_ratio).
GAAP operating income upside_2027q4_op	2027Q4 / upside	155.21 USD_millions	derived: Gross profit less GAAP expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gp, upside_2027q4_opex).
Operating cash upside_2027q4_cfo	2027Q4 / upside	223.11 USD_millions	derived: Revenue times independent cash-conversion assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_rev, upside_cash_ratio).
PP&E capex upside_2027q4_capex	2027Q4 / upside	50.00 USD_millions	derived: Allocated annual capex after H1 actual. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_capex27, upside_quarter).
Cash after PP&E capex upside_2027q4_fcf	2027Q4 / upside	173.11 USD_millions	derived: Operating cash less modeled capex; excludes acquisitions and financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 rev upside_fy2026_rev	FY2026 / upside	3,797.48 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_rev, upside_2026q3_rev, upside_2026q4_rev).
FY2026 gp upside_fy2026_gp	FY2026 / upside	2,322.63 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_gp, upside_2026q3_gp, upside_2026q4_gp).
FY2026 op upside_fy2026_op	FY2026 / upside	269.47 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_op, upside_2026q3_op, upside_2026q4_op).
FY2026 cfo upside_fy2026_cfo	FY2026 / upside	280.57 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
FY2026 capex upside_fy2026_capex	FY2026 / upside	160.00 USD_millions	derived: H1 actual plus modeled H2. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex upside_fy2026_fcf	FY2026 / upside	120.57 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2026_cfo, upside_fy2026_capex).
FY2027 rev upside_fy2027_rev	FY2027 / upside	5,562.51 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_rev, upside_2027q2_rev, upside_2027q3_rev, upside_2027q4_rev).
FY2027 gp upside_fy2027_gp	FY2027 / upside	3,481.89 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gp, upside_2027q2_gp, upside_2027q3_gp, upside_2027q4_gp).
FY2027 op upside_fy2027_op	FY2027 / upside	533.76 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_op, upside_2027q2_op, upside_2027q3_op, upside_2027q4_op).
FY2027 cfo upside_fy2027_cfo	FY2027 / upside	778.75 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
FY2027 capex upside_fy2027_capex	FY2027 / upside	200.00 USD_millions	derived: Sum of all four modeled quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
Annual cash after PP&E capex upside_fy2027_fcf	FY2027 / upside	578.75 USD_millions	derived: Annual operating cash less capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy2027_cfo, upside_fy2027_capex).

Model boundaries

Sequential growth factors are desk sensitivities, not company quarterly forecasts. Acquisitions, customer cohorts, deployment schedules and currency are not separately modeled.
GAAP expenses include stock compensation conceptually but do not model awards separately. No forward EPS until investment gains, taxes, convertible settlement and diluted ownership have defensible bridges.
Cash is modeled separately because investments and working capital materially affect the bridge. No ending-cash projection; offering proceeds are not operating cash.
Convert economics illustrate the $1B base issuance. Expected settlement is not proof of completion; option exercise and use of proceeds require subsequent confirmation.

Follow recurring gross profit through to ownership

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can platform expansion produce cash and earnings per share as rapidly as revenue and contracted activity grow?

Devices establish relationships; evidence storage and operational workflows can deepen them. Multi-year bundles support continuity but complicate recognition and cash timing. Software economics differ from professional services and hardware, so a recurring-revenue narrative alone is insufficient. The model separates reported segments and treats GAAP operating expenses, including equity compensation, as a real cost. Investment gains and financing proceeds stay outside operating performance.

The competing explanation

The competing explanation is that strong demand justifies current spending and newer workflows will improve lifetime customer economics. If adoption grows without equivalent service and selling costs, current GAAP margins may understate a mature business. That interpretation still needs evidence from margins, collections and ownership rather than recurring metrics alone.

Risks to track

Government procurement, budgets and deployments can delay recognition and collection.
Services, new products and acquisitions change margin quality.
Equity compensation and convertible settlement choices can dilute ownership.
Integration, security, privacy and reliability affect customer trust and contracts.

Next checkpoints

Next quarterly results · When the issuer confirms the date (event driven). Compare software growth and margin, retention, bookings conversion, operating cash and equity compensation with the model.
Convertible closing and balance sheet · Next definitive financing disclosure (event driven). Confirm settlement, option exercise, net cash after capped calls and use of funds. Keep financing separate from operating cash.

Data coverage and open work

June 30 actuals and August 5 metrics are the latest quarterly anchors reviewed. The final September 17 prospectus is included; expected September 18 settlement is not treated as confirmed closing.
Capped calls may offset dilution or conversion cash payments, subject to terms and counterparty performance. Protection is capped; dilution does not universally begin only above the cap.
Base $1B issuance provides about $986M after offering costs, then $886.1M after $99.9M capped calls, before other uses. This is financing, not earned cash.
No forward EPS or share-price valuation: taxes, investment gains, awards and conversion require separate bridges. Q4 historical EPS/share gaps remain explicit.

This review: First segment growth and cash scenarios and durable thesis. Corrects the earlier financing interpretation: zero coupon is not zero economic cost, and the filing cannot establish why the share price moved.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in points	Low	Middle	High	Share up
1 session	-1.5	+0.1	+1.8	55%
5 sessions	-3.4	+0.3	+4.0	58%
10 sessions	-4.8	+0.6	+7.2	55%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

Axon: A Zero-Coupon Convert Cost the Stock Four Times What It Raised · 2026-09-16

Scorecard: 1 note scored

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/axon-zero-coupon-convert-repricing-20260916): settlement of the notes on or about September 18; exercise of the over-allotment option; the third-quarter report in early November

Provenance

[1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[16] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[19] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[27] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069183-25-000077, 10-Q filed 2025-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[28] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001069183-25-000181, 10-Q filed 2025-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[29] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[34] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[36] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[37] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[38] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[39] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[40] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-25-049143, 10-Q filed 2025-11-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-011360, 10-K filed 2026-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[42] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-031542, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json
[43] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001628280-26-053646, 10-Q filed 2026-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:07+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001069183.json

What the author read

Axon Q2 2026 shareholder letter and financial statements · retrieved 2026-09-19
Axon June 2026 Form 10-Q · retrieved 2026-09-19
Axon final convertible-note prospectus, filed September 17 · retrieved 2026-09-19

Compiled 2026-09-19T16:41:07.985581+00:00 · authored 81c4c97a349a · generated c0f36ada0aac · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard