INTC Earnings-Day Base Rates: The Last 20 Quarters

The Last 20 INTC Earnings

Intel has reported earnings 20 times since 2021. The earnings-day reactions have been unusually wide — INTC's median earnings-day |move| is approximately 7%, well above the 3-4% median for a typical mid/large-cap semi. That's a function of the 2022-2024 transition period: TSMC share-loss narratives, Gaudi vs NVIDIA comparisons, and the foundry-spin debate all produced large-move earnings.

Hold vs Fade Split

Across those 20 reactions, the 5-day follow-through split: 11 of 20 held the earnings-day direction, 9 of 20 faded. Biased slightly toward hold, but not meaningfully so. The 10-day follow-through tightened the distribution — 6 of 20 had cumulative moves greater than ±10%, 14 of 20 were inside ±10%, consistent with the idea that earnings moves tend to mean-revert over 2-3 weeks unless they coincide with a regime shift.

• Down-day earnings (9 occurrences) held the downside more often (6 of 9) than up-day earnings held the upside (5 of 11).
• VIX level on earnings day correlated positively with |move| but not with direction.
• The biggest hold outliers (> 15% cumulative move 10 days later) were all associated with forward-guidance changes, not the current-quarter print.

What This Means Tonight

If INTC prints a reaction-day move that's outside its historical 7% median, the base rates shift. A gap greater than 10% has historically held in 8 of 11 cases, mostly because those gaps were tied to guidance rather than top-line beats. A gap smaller than 4% has historically faded more often than held — those tend to be ambiguous prints where positioning matters more than fundamentals.