DKNG Pre-Earnings: The Sportsbook Cohort Heading Into Q1

Q1 Is DKNG's Highest-Variance Quarter

DKNG has a 21-print history back to mid-2020, with a median earnings-day |move| of 11.4%. Q1 prints specifically are higher-variance than the other quarters — the Q1 sub-cohort (n=5) has a median |move| of 14.2% because March Madness handle and customer-acquisition-cost commentary land together.

The cohort retrieval pulls all 21 DKNG prints plus cross-ticker analogs from FLUT (formerly PDYPF) and PENN with similar customer-cohort and state-rollout profiles. Across the combined 36-print cohort, the 5-day forward median is +0.7%, the 10-day median is +1.5%, and the IQR is [-9.1%, +12.4%].

The Hold-Rate Feature

The cohort's feature attribution surfaces structural-hold-rate commentary as the dominant signal — particularly for Q1 prints where March Madness customer behavior gets disclosed. The Q1 sub-cohort splits:

• Structural hold ≥ 10.5% AND raised full-year revenue guide (n=2): 5-day median +12.4%, hit-rate 100%
• Structural hold 9-10.4% + reiterated guide (n=2): 5-day median -1.8%, hit-rate 50%
• Structural hold < 9% OR cut guide (n=1): 5-day -16.9% (single observation, but defines the negative tail)
• Customer-acquisition-cost trajectory: secondary feature, amplifies whichever hold-rate bucket the print lands in

Going Into Tonight's Print

Heading into the May 7 close, DKNG has drifted -2.3% over the prior 10 sessions on declining RVOL — a defensive setup. Options-implied move sits at ~13.6%, in line with the Q1-specific historical median.

The conformal 80% band off the cohort sits at [-11.2%, +13.8%] for the 5-day forward. The pre-drift-negative subset has a slightly tighter band ([-9.4%, +12.1%]) and a 5-day median of +1.9%, reflecting modest mean-reversion when DKNG drifts down into prints.

What To Listen For On The Call

The post-call cohort match weights three signals: structural hold rate vs. consensus, March Madness handle and parlay-mix disclosures, and any state-launch timing updates (especially Texas, California, Florida progress). These three together drive ~75% of the within-cohort 5-day return variance.

Agent systems trading DKNG off earnings should be aware that Q1 reactions are noisier than other quarters — the cohort retrieval is best run after the prepared remarks finish, not on the headline.