What changed: r5 to r6
Corrected the October pricing checkpoint using the later September 17 Reuters report of company confirmation. Added realization, competition and power-delivery checks. All operating and funding assumptions, scenario values and historical accounts remain unchanged because affected revenue share and realized usage are not disclosed.
Retrieval clocks and internal hashes are excluded. Changed source or accounting definitions are not automatically an economic restatement. The authored reason describes the destination revision.
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| /meta/revision | 5 | 6 |
| /research/change_note | Added conditional funding balances, gross-to-net August financing, a separately gated July facility, debt carrying-value context and dated ownership claims without double-counting prefunded warrants in EPS. Preserved operating forecasts. Unconfirmed October repricing stays a pending checkpoint with no numerical uplift. Expanded historical coverage to eight fiscal quarters; withheld Q4 2025 profit figures pending allocation of audited annual changes. | Corrected the October pricing checkpoint using the later September 17 Reuters report of company confirmation. Added realization, competition and power-delivery checks. All operating and funding assumptions, scenario values and historical accounts remain unchanged because affected revenue share and realized usage are not disclosed. |
| /research/checkpoints/3/date_status | estimated | confirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/3/event | Verify reported October compute repricing | October on-demand pricing and realized revenue |
| /research/checkpoints/3/timing | Reported October 1, 2026 implementation; issuer confirmation outstanding | October 1, 2026 scheduled implementation, as reported by Reuters from company statements |
| /research/checkpoints/3/watch | Obtain an original issuer/customer pricing notice and distinguish on-demand GPU/CPU pricing from fixed committed contracts. Pending evidence remains unresolved; change forecasts only when scope and realization are supported. | Verify implemented rates and affected GPU/CPU/memory products, on-demand revenue share, committed-contract discounts, utilization and renewals. Keep the broad revenue assumptions unchanged until realized exposure is supported. |
| /research/checkpoints/4/date_status | None | event_driven |
| /research/checkpoints/4/event | None | Power availability and competitive capacity |
| /research/checkpoints/4/timing | None | 2026 build-out and subsequent quarterly disclosures |
| /research/checkpoints/4/watch | None | Compare the May 20 plan for 328 MW of Bloom fuel-cell capacity this year with actual commissioning; installed generation is not GPU capacity or earned revenue. Nscale filed for an IPO on September 18; monitor funded deployments and customer pricing, not an assumed completed capital raise. |
| /research/countercase | Customer commitments and prepayments can materially reduce the equity needed per deployed GPU, and strong utilization can support attractive cash returns. The contrary risk is that headline EBITDA and ARR rise while depreciation, refresh spending, construction obligations and financing continually absorb the economics. Both outcomes remain plausible; the model exposes the assumptions that separate them. | Customer commitments and prepayments can materially reduce the equity needed per deployed GPU, and strong utilization can support attractive cash returns. The contrary risk is that headline EBITDA and ARR rise while depreciation, refresh spending, construction obligations and financing continually absorb the economics. Both outcomes remain plausible; the model exposes the assumptions that separate them. On-demand repricing supports the pricing-power case, while interchangeable compute, hyperscaler competition and new competitor funding can pressure renewals. Neither a list-price increase nor a rival IPO establishes a change in Nebius contract economics. |
| /research/economics | Q2 group revenue was $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, while the GAAP operating loss was $175.9M. June AI cloud exit ARR was $3.0B; it annualizes the final month and is not annual sales. H1 operating cash flow of $4,504.1M falls to $109.1M after removing the $4,395.0M deferred-revenue contribution; that residual is not a normalized-profit claim. Cash PP&E/intangibles totaled $8,130.3M. June cash of $8,042.1M excludes $1,056.0M restricted cash. On August 24, $5.75B gross new converts closed, alongside an $800M debt-for-shares exchange. Those transactions change cash, coupons and ownership differently. The September Palantir partnership has no quantified minimum revenue in its announcement, so it produces no separate modeled uplift. | Q2 group revenue was $582.3M and adjusted EBITDA $236.2M, while the GAAP operating loss was $175.9M. June AI cloud exit ARR was $3.0B; it annualizes the final month and is not annual sales. H1 operating cash flow of $4,504.1M falls to $109.1M after removing the $4,395.0M deferred-revenue contribution; that residual is not a normalized-profit claim. Cash PP&E/intangibles totaled $8,130.3M. June cash of $8,042.1M excludes $1,056.0M restricted cash. On August 24, $5.75B gross new converts closed, alongside an $800M debt-for-shares exchange. Those transactions change cash, coupons and ownership differently. The September Palantir partnership has no quantified minimum revenue in its announcement, so it produces no separate modeled uplift. Reuters reported a company-confirmed October 1 increase of 17%-21% for selected pay-as-you-go GPUs, with selected CPU-only and memory rates also increasing. The revenue share exposed is undisclosed, and committed clusters can receive discounts; this is not a group revenue or margin uplift. |
| /research/limitations/4 | No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership. Future contract pricing, utilization and GPU refresh economics remain uncertain. | No revenue is added solely for the September Palantir partnership or October list-price change. On-demand exposure and commitment discounts are undisclosed. Current issuer price pages still show pre-October rates; company confirmation is attributed to the later Reuters wire, not a new issuer web release. |
| /research/limitations/5 | August gross proceeds are reduced by a desk 1.5% fee allowance; $775M signed July facility is excluded pending confirmed draw availability. The $800M exchange retires debt for shares with no modeled cash repayment. June shares plus warrants and August exchange shares are a dated partial bridge, not current fully diluted ownership. August AGM approved five-year authority to issue up to an additional 20% of issued share capital and exclude pre-emption; authorization is not cash raised or shares already issued. | August gross proceeds are reduced by a desk 1.5% fee allowance; $775M signed July facility is excluded pending confirmed draw availability. The $800M exchange retires debt for shares with no modeled cash repayment. June shares plus warrants and August exchange shares are a dated partial bridge, not current fully diluted ownership. August AGM approved five-year authority to issue up to an additional 20% of issued share capital and exclude pre-emption; authorization is not cash raised or shares already issued. September 16-17 Forms 4 report option exercise/sales and director sales; they do not supply a current group-wide fully diluted share reconciliation. |
| /research/risks/5 | September reporting describes an unconfirmed October 1 compute-price change. Verify original customer notices, applicable products and realized utilization before translating it into revenue or margins; no repricing uplift is included. | October 1 on-demand repricing was confirmed to Reuters on September 17. Revenue exposure, commitment discounts, customer migration and utilization remain unknown; applying the headline GPU increase to all revenue would overstate the evidence. |
| /sources/10/title | Original historical accounts: first-quarter-2026 | Audited 2025 annual accounts; differ from February unaudited profit figures |
| /sources/10/url | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/6fc0ea6c-0884-4a1f-bed8-1f797eb9628f/Financial%20results_Q1%202026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-05-13T09:58:57.420Z | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/nbis-20251231x20f.htm |
| /sources/11/title | Audited 2025 annual accounts; differ from February unaudited profit figures | August AGM: five-year issuance and pre-emption authority; capacity is not completed dilution |
| /sources/11/url | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/nbis-20251231x20f.htm | https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-n-v-announces-results-of-its-annual-general-meeting-2026 |
| /sources/12/title | August AGM: five-year issuance and pre-emption authority; capacity is not completed dilution | September 17 Reuters wire: company confirmation of October on-demand repricing |
| /sources/12/url | https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-group-n-v-announces-results-of-its-annual-general-meeting-2026 | https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/nebius-hikes-ai-cloud-prices-again-demand-computing-power-soars-4906125 |
| /sources/13/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/13/title | None | Issuer price list retrieved before scheduled October implementation |
| /sources/13/url | None | https://nebius.com/prices |
| /sources/14/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/14/title | None | May 20 issuer release: planned 328 MW power project, not completed delivery |
| /sources/14/url | None | https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-and-bloom-energy-partner-to-power-ai-infrastructure-build-out |
| /sources/15/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/15/title | None | September 18 competitor announcement: IPO filing, terms not determined |
| /sources/15/url | None | https://www.nscale.com/press-releases/nscale-files-initial-public-offering |
| /sources/16/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/16/title | None | Nscale S-1 competition discussion; competitor accounts are not Nebius inputs |
| /sources/16/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2110365/000119312526395475/ck0002110365-20260918.htm |
| /sources/17/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/17/title | None | September 16 Form 4: Boroditsky option exercises and plan sales |
| /sources/17/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000151384526000112/xslF345X06/form4.xml |
| /sources/18/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/18/title | None | September 17 Form 4: Boynton director plan sales |
| /sources/18/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000151384526000114/xslF345X06/form4.xml |
| /sources/7/title | September 19 secondary report: October repricing unconfirmed by issuer in the report | Original historical accounts: fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025 |
| /sources/7/url | https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2026/09/19/nebius-nasdaq-nbis-stock-price-hike-signals-surging-demand-for-ai-compute-capacity/ | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z |
| /sources/8/title | Original historical accounts: fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2025 | Original historical accounts: third-quarter-2025 |
| /sources/8/url | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2829268f-924f-4846-87b5-2365b7e58b41/Financial%20results_Q4%202025_11022026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-02-12T09:48:03.404Z | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a24c0d55-ba23-437c-a6bc-93cc2223cb01/20251111%20Nebius%20reports%20third%20quarter%202025%20financial%20results.pdf?cache-buster=2025-11-11T11:13:59.487Z |
| /sources/9/title | Original historical accounts: third-quarter-2025 | Original historical accounts: first-quarter-2026 |
| /sources/9/url | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/a24c0d55-ba23-437c-a6bc-93cc2223cb01/20251111%20Nebius%20reports%20third%20quarter%202025%20financial%20results.pdf?cache-buster=2025-11-11T11:13:59.487Z | https://assets.nebius.com/assets/6fc0ea6c-0884-4a1f-bed8-1f797eb9628f/Financial%20results_Q1%202026.pdf?cache-buster=2026-05-13T09:58:57.420Z |
| /thesis/what_changes_it | Watch revenue recognized versus ARR, cash generation excluding net deferred-revenue additions, cash capex and funding per unit of deployed capacity. Slower activation, shorter customer commitments or more dilution weaken the case. Improving cash conversion before prepayments and better funding efficiency strengthen it. Separate nominal-strike prefunded claims and the noncash August note exchange from future cash fundraising; verify reported October repricing before assuming higher realized yields. | Watch revenue recognized versus ARR, cash generation excluding net deferred-revenue additions, cash capex and funding per unit of deployed capacity. Slower activation, shorter customer commitments or more dilution weaken the case. Improving cash conversion before prepayments and better funding efficiency strengthen it. Separate nominal-strike prefunded claims and the noncash August note exchange from future cash fundraising; track October on-demand repricing, the revenue exposed and utilization before assuming higher realized yields. |