What changed: r4 to r5
Reviewed September 20: adds EVE procurement terms, the September guidance bridge, November action-plan checkpoint and specific reporting/litigation risks. All scenarios recompiled; existing FY2026 guidance and explicit FY2027 assumptions remain unchanged.
Retrieval clocks and internal hashes are excluded. Changed source or accounting definitions are not automatically an economic restatement. The authored reason describes the destination revision.
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| /estimates/basis | Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. | Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q4/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q4/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q1/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q1/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q2/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q2/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q3/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q3/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /meta/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /meta/research_reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /meta/revision | 4 | 5 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/basis | None | Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/formula/op | None | sum |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/formula/refs/0 | None | sep_shifted_margin |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/formula/refs/1 | None | sep_penalties |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/formula/refs/2 | None | sep_rollout_cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/formula/refs/3 | None | sep_houston_cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/id | None | sep_ebitda_reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/kind | None | derived |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/label | None | Total adjusted EBITDA outlook reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_ebitda_reduction:shared/value | None | 190.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/basis | None | Approximate future delivery backlog; not recognized revenue or guaranteed collections. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/id | None | sep_fy27_backlog |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/kind | None | reported |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/label | None | FY2027 backlog at September 16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/period | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_fy27_backlog:shared/value | None | 2900.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/basis | None | Incremental expected production cost in the revised outlook. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/id | None | sep_houston_cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/label | None | Initial Houston volume and quality cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_houston_cost:shared/value | None | 25.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/basis | None | Remaining revenue outlook reduction. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/id | None | sep_logistics_delay |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/label | None | Logistics and customer-readiness reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_logistics_delay:shared/value | None | 85.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/basis | None | Contra-revenue component; also included in the EBITDA bridge, not two separate charges. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/id | None | sep_penalties |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/label | None | Late-delivery penalties |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_penalties:shared/value | None | 65.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/basis | None | Reduction versus prior outlook; not a separate subtraction from revised guidance. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/id | None | sep_production_delay |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/label | None | Production-delay revenue reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_production_delay:shared/value | None | 450.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/basis | None | Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/formula/op | None | sum |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/formula/refs/0 | None | sep_production_delay |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/formula/refs/1 | None | sep_penalties |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/formula/refs/2 | None | sep_logistics_delay |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/id | None | sep_revenue_reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/kind | None | derived |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/label | None | Total revenue outlook reduction |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_revenue_reduction:shared/value | None | 600.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/basis | None | Incremental expected cost in the revised outlook. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/id | None | sep_rollout_cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/label | None | Initial new-product rollout cost |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_rollout_cost:shared/value | None | 35.0 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/basis | None | EBITDA effect of revenue timing, distinct from the penalty amount. |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/case | None | shared |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/id | None | sep_shifted_margin |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/kind | None | management_guidance |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/label | None | Margin shifted with revenue into FY2027 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/period | None | FY2026 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/source_date | None | 2026-09-16 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/source_url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/unit | None | USD_millions |
| /operating_model/cells/sep_shifted_margin:shared/value | None | 65.0 |
| /operating_model/highlights/10 | None | sep_ebitda_reduction |
| /operating_model/highlights/11 | None | sep_fy27_backlog |
| /operating_model/highlights/8 | None | sep_penalties |
| /operating_model/highlights/9 | None | sep_revenue_reduction |
| /operating_model/limitations/4 | None | The $600M revenue reduction includes $65M of late-delivery penalties, so it is not all deferred FY2027 sales. September FY2027 backlog is context, not revenue guidance; the cash and capital aims remain objectives. |
| /operating_model/method | FY2026 starts with September 16 guidance, not the superseded August range. Q4 equals our full-year case less reported nine-month results. FY2027 revenue scales each FY2026 case by an explicit delivery factor; adjusted EBITDA uses a separate margin assumption. Quarterly FY2027 values allocate the annual case 20% / 23% / 25% / 32%. Operating cash is an explicit stress assumption, not inferred from backlog or adjusted EBITDA alone. No scenario probability is assigned. | FY2026 starts with September 16 guidance, not the superseded August range. Q4 equals our full-year case less reported nine-month results. FY2027 revenue scales each FY2026 case by an explicit delivery factor; adjusted EBITDA uses a separate margin assumption. Quarterly FY2027 values allocate the annual case 20% / 23% / 25% / 32%. Operating cash is an explicit stress assumption, not inferred from backlog or adjusted EBITDA alone. No scenario probability is assigned. September guidance-bridge cells explain reductions already included in the FY2026 anchors; do not subtract them again. Supplier capacity is excluded from revenue. |
| /operating_model/reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /research/change_note | First sourced company review and operating scenarios, replacing the corporate-history extract and incorporating September 16 guidance. | Reviewed September 20: adds EVE procurement terms, the September guidance bridge, November action-plan checkpoint and specific reporting/litigation risks. All scenarios recompiled; existing FY2026 guidance and explicit FY2027 assumptions remain unchanged. |
| /research/checkpoints/0/date_status | event_driven | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/0/timing | When the issuer announces the reporting date | November 2026 update planned; exact reporting date unconfirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/0/watch | Reconcile revenue and adjusted EBITDA to September guidance; inspect production milestones, working capital and funding. | Test the action plan and quarterly U.S. production reporting against September guidance. Reconcile FY2027 backlog with deliveries, margin, working capital and any funding need. |
| /research/checkpoints/2/date_status | None | event_driven |
| /research/checkpoints/2/event | None | EVE supply commitments and project matching |
| /research/checkpoints/2/timing | None | As purchase orders and subsequent results are disclosed |
| /research/checkpoints/2/watch | None | Track the 16 GWh 2027 commitment separately from 190 GWh reserved later capacity; verify pricing, payment obligations, qualification and matching customer projects before changing revenue or cash assumptions. |
| /research/checkpoints/3/date_status | None | event_driven |
| /research/checkpoints/3/event | None | Financial-reporting inquiry and litigation |
| /research/checkpoints/3/timing | None | Subsequent SEC filings or court/regulatory developments |
| /research/checkpoints/3/watch | None | Track the existing SEC inquiry, project dispute and derivative cases separately from September law-firm solicitations. Review any amended complaints, findings, reserves or quantified costs; do not treat the earlier dismissal without prejudice as final closure. |
| /research/economics | Cells, inventory and supplier advances absorb funding ahead of shipment and acceptance; customer deposits can offset that need. Delays can postpone revenue while keeping costs and financing demands in place. Manufacturing scale is useful only when yield, logistics and project readiness support timely recognition. Related-party customers and suppliers also make ownership and counterparty structure relevant. September leadership changes put supply-chain execution at the center of the next review. | Cells, inventory and supplier advances absorb funding ahead of shipment and acceptance; customer deposits can offset that need. Delays can postpone revenue while keeping costs and financing demands in place. Manufacturing scale is useful only when yield, logistics and project readiness support timely recognition. Related-party customers and suppliers also make ownership and counterparty structure relevant. September leadership changes put supply-chain execution at the center of the next review. EVE discloses 16 GWh of committed 2027 deliveries and 190 GWh of reserved 2028-2031 capacity, totaling 206 GWh. Specific purchases remain subject to later orders; these are supplier-side quantities, not Fluence customer backlog. |
| /research/limitations/4 | None | EVE discloses a framework subject to later purchase orders, not 206 GWh of unconditional end-customer orders. No disclosed unit pricing or payment schedule supports a dollar purchase obligation or additional modeled revenue. |
| /research/limitations/5 | None | Legal posture follows the June 10-Q and current law-firm notices: the securities complaint was dismissed without prejudice in March, derivative actions remain disclosed and the Diablo disgorgement claim was dismissed in December 2025. Other claims are disputed; no invented loss reserve enters the scenarios. |
| /research/reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /research/risks/2 | Battery supply concentration, tariffs and procurement commitments constrain flexibility. | Battery concentration, tariffs and EVE procurement commitments can increase inventory and funding exposure. Pricing, payment terms and project matching require purchase-order evidence. |
| /research/risks/4 | None | The June 10-Q discloses an SEC financial-reporting investigation and project/shareholder litigation. Management did not expect the SEC matter to be material based on then-known information, but its outcome and duration were uncertain. |
| /research/risks/5 | None | September law-firm investigations concern manufacturing disclosures. They are separate from the existing SEC matter; allegations and investor solicitations do not establish liability. |
| /sources/0/retrieved | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/1/retrieved | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/2/retrieved | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/3/retrieved | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/4/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/4/title | None | Fluence September 16 financial update: guidance bridge and FY2027 framework |
| /sources/4/url | None | https://fluenceenergy.gcs-web.com/static-files/d330b44f-26f5-4f41-85b7-9958b8985873 |
| /sources/5/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/5/title | None | EVE Energy issuer announcement 2026-118, September 18 supply framework (original Chinese announcement reproduced by Sina) |
| /sources/5/url | None | https://money.finance.sina.com.cn/corp/view/vCB_AllBulletinDetail.php?id=12609819&stockid=300014 |
| /sources/6/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/6/title | None | Block & Leviton September 17 investigation notice; allegation and solicitation, not a court finding |
| /sources/6/url | None | https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/17/3364337/23044/en/flnc-investigation-fluence-energy-investors-should-contact-block-leviton-llp-to-possibly-recover-losses.html |
| /thesis/view | Our central question is execution, not whether storage demand exists. September guidance shows that a large backlog can coexist with losses and funding pressure. The next credible improvement is a repeatable chain from manufacturing output to delivered projects, collections and cash. We treat management’s FY2027 cash-neutral-to-positive objective as something to test. Leadership changes make operating accountability more visible, but do not themselves demonstrate recovered production or economics. | Our central question is execution, not whether storage demand exists. September guidance shows that a large backlog can coexist with losses and funding pressure. The next credible improvement is a repeatable chain from manufacturing output to delivered projects, collections and cash. We treat management’s FY2027 cash-neutral-to-positive objective as something to test. Leadership changes make operating accountability more visible, but do not themselves demonstrate recovered production or economics. The new EVE supply framework expands procurement capacity; it does not establish customer sales or resolve Houston execution. |
| /thesis/what_changes_it | Measured U.S. production versus plan, customer acceptance and cash receipts would strengthen the execution case. Another delivery reset, inventory growth without collections, or a financing requirement would weaken it. Rebuild the model when the company supplies its FY2027 plan. | Measured U.S. production versus plan, customer acceptance and cash receipts would strengthen the execution case. Another delivery reset, inventory growth without collections, or a financing requirement would weaken it. Rebuild the model when the company supplies its FY2027 plan. Separate recoverable delivery timing from penalties and startup costs; test procurement commitments against orders, deposits and available funding. |