ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$FLNC

Fluence Energy, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 3690 · CIK 1868941 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

All companies · Free for people and agents · JSON · Download model CSV · Operating scenarios

Business

Fluence supplies battery energy-storage systems, operating services and optimization software to utilities, developers and other large power users. Its economics depend on turning contracted projects into installed, accepted systems at an adequate margin. Equipment procurement and manufacturing come before final collection, so inventory, supplier advances and customer deposits can dominate cash generation. Services and software add recurring revenue, but the company remains exposed to large project schedules, battery supply and execution at manufacturing partners.

Three drivers

  1. Manufacturing output and customer acceptance determine when backlog becomes revenue.
  2. Project margin must cover operating costs, startup expense and execution overruns.
  3. Inventory, supplier advances and collections determine funding needs before earnings recover.

Thesis

Our view

Our central question is execution, not whether storage demand exists. September guidance shows that a large backlog can coexist with losses and funding pressure. The next credible improvement is a repeatable chain from manufacturing output to delivered projects, collections and cash. We treat management’s FY2027 cash-neutral-to-positive objective as something to test. Leadership changes make operating accountability more visible, but do not themselves demonstrate recovered production or economics.

What changes it

Measured U.S. production versus plan, customer acceptance and cash receipts would strengthen the execution case. Another delivery reset, inventory growth without collections, or a financing requirement would weaken it. Rebuild the model when the company supplies its FY2027 plan.

Scenario ranges

The operating scenarios above vary named business assumptions. They are not price targets, probabilities, or the short-horizon historical memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q4
2024-09-30
2025Q1
2024-12-31
2025Q2
2025-03-31
2025Q3
2025-06-30
2025Q4
2025-09-30
2026Q1
2025-12-31
2026Q2
2026-03-31
2026Q3
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)1,228.1†1186.82431.63602.541,041.9†1475.22464.93649.84
Gross profit ($M)157.5†521.2642.6789.18142.9†523.0646.6733.28
Operating income ($M)
Net income ($M)47.8†9-41.510-31.0116.31217.9†9-45.110-20.911-32.812
EPS, diluted ($)-0.3213-0.24140.0115-0.3413-0.1614-0.2415
Diluted shares (M)129.516130.017183.618131.516132.517138.118
Cash ($M)448.719607.420568.621436.322690.823452.624387.325339.323
Long-term debt ($M)0.026
Cash from operations ($M)10.5†27-211.228-46.2†29-153.9†30265.7†27-226.828-121.1†29-18.6†30
Capex ($M)3.3†312.1324.4†333.6†344.9†315.8322.5†331.4†34
Free cash flow ($M)7.3†35-213.3†36-50.5†37-157.4†38260.9†35-232.6†36-123.6†37-20.0†38

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q4810.02026-09-19Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1600.02026-09-19Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2690.02026-09-19Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q3750.02026-09-19Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance.

Fluence: delivery and cash-conversion scenarios

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

FY2026 starts with September 16 guidance, not the superseded August range. Q4 equals our full-year case less reported nine-month results. FY2027 revenue scales each FY2026 case by an explicit delivery factor; adjusted EBITDA uses a separate margin assumption. Quarterly FY2027 values allocate the annual case 20% / 23% / 25% / 32%. Operating cash is an explicit stress assumption, not inferred from backlog or adjusted EBITDA alone. No scenario probability is assigned.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Reported nine-month revenue2026 9M1,589.97reported. Consolidated revenue, including related parties. Source · 2026-08-05
Reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA2026 9M-90.80reported. Company non-GAAP measure; rounded to disclosed $0.1M. Source · 2026-08-05
Reported nine-month operating cash2026 9M-366.53reported. GAAP operating cash flow. Source · 2026-08-05
Latest FY2026 revenue guidanceFY20262,400.00management guidance. Approximately $2.4B; replaces the August $3.0B midpoint. Source · 2026-09-16
Latest FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidanceFY2026-200.00management guidance. Approximately $200M loss; no forward GAAP reconciliation available. Source · 2026-09-16
Contracted backlog2026-06-306,400.00reported. Rounded disclosure. Timing, cancellations and mix prevent treating backlog as annual sales. Source · 2026-08-05
Unrestricted cash and equivalents2026-06-30339.33reported. Excludes restricted cash; June cash is not a September balance. Source · 2026-08-05
Total liquidity2026-06-30863.00reported. Includes cash, restricted cash and available facilities net of letters of credit; not all cash. Source · 2026-08-05

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash ($M)PP&E + software capex ($M)Revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Cash after capex ($M)
2026Q40.0012.00710.03-139.20-12.00
2027Q1-33.607.00460.00-27.60-40.60
2027Q2-38.648.05529.00-31.74-46.69
2027Q3-42.008.75575.00-34.50-50.75
FY2026-366.5333.332,300.00-230.00-399.87
FY2027-168.0035.002,300.00-138.00-203.00

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash ($M)PP&E + software capex ($M)Revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Cash after capex ($M)
2026Q4100.0010.00810.03-109.2090.00
2027Q10.006.00600.000.00-6.00
2027Q20.006.90690.000.00-6.90
2027Q30.007.50750.000.00-7.50
FY2026-266.5331.332,400.00-200.00-297.87
FY20270.0030.003,000.000.00-30.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash ($M)PP&E + software capex ($M)Revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Cash after capex ($M)
2026Q4200.008.00910.03-79.20192.00
2027Q134.006.00700.0028.0028.00
2027Q239.106.90805.0032.2032.20
2027Q342.507.50875.0035.0035.00
FY2026-166.5329.332,500.00-170.00-195.87
FY2027170.0030.003,500.00140.00140.00
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
Reported nine-month revenue
revenue_9m
2026 9M / shared1,589.97
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated revenue, including related parties. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA
ebitda_9m
2026 9M / shared-90.80
USD_millions
reported: Company non-GAAP measure; rounded to disclosed $0.1M. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Reported nine-month operating cash
cfo_9m
2026 9M / shared-366.53
USD_millions
reported: GAAP operating cash flow. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month PP&E capex
capex_ppe_9m
2026 9M / shared9.68
USD_millions
reported: Cash purchases of property and equipment. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month software and other capex
capex_software_9m
2026 9M / shared11.66
USD_millions
reported: Separate investing cash-flow line. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month combined capex
capex_9m
2026 9M / shared21.33
USD_millions
derived: PP&E plus capitalized software and other. Formula: sum(capex_ppe_9m, capex_software_9m).
Latest FY2026 revenue guidance
fy26_revenue_guide
FY2026 / shared2,400.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Approximately $2.4B; replaces the August $3.0B midpoint. Primary source · 2026-09-16
Latest FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance
fy26_ebitda_guide
FY2026 / shared-200.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Approximately $200M loss; no forward GAAP reconciliation available. Primary source · 2026-09-16
Contracted backlog
backlog_june
2026-06-30 / shared6,400.00
USD_millions
reported: Rounded disclosure. Timing, cancellations and mix prevent treating backlog as annual sales. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Unrestricted cash and equivalents
cash_june
2026-06-30 / shared339.33
USD_millions
reported: Excludes restricted cash; June cash is not a September balance. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Total liquidity
liquidity_june
2026-06-30 / shared863.00
USD_millions
reported: Includes cash, restricted cash and available facilities net of letters of credit; not all cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 revenue case
downside_fy26_rev
FY2026 / downside2,300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case
downside_fy26_eb
FY2026 / downside-230.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook.
Q4 operating cash assumption
downside_q4_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance.
Q4 PP&E and software capex
downside_q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend.
Q4 implied revenue
downside_q4_rev
2026Q4 / downside710.03
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_rev, revenue_9m).
Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA
downside_q4_eb
2026Q4 / downside-139.20
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m).
Q4 cash after combined capex
downside_q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-12.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(downside_q4_cash, downside_q4_capex).
FY2026 operating cash
downside_fy26_cash
FY2026 / downside-366.53
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, downside_q4_cash).
FY2026 combined capex
downside_fy26_capex
FY2026 / downside33.33
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, downside_q4_capex).
FY2026 cash after combined capex
downside_fy26_fcf
FY2026 / downside-399.87
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_cash, downside_fy26_capex).
FY2027 delivery / revenue factor
downside_delivery_factor
FY2027 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin
downside_eb_margin
FY2027 / downside-6.0%
ratio
assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin.
FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment
downside_cash_bridge
FY2027 / downside-30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement.
FY2027 combined capex
downside_fy27_capex
FY2027 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance.
FY2027 revenue
downside_fy27_rev
FY2027 / downside2,300.00
USD_millions
derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_rev, downside_delivery_factor).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA
downside_fy27_eb
FY2027 / downside-138.00
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_eb_margin).
FY2027 operating cash
downside_fy27_cash
FY2027 / downside-168.00
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_fy27_eb, downside_cash_bridge).
FY2027 cash after combined capex
downside_fy27_fcf
FY2027 / downside-203.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27_capex).
Quarter share of annual case
downside_fy27q1_weight
2027Q1 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
downside_fy27q1_rev
2027Q1 / downside460.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
downside_fy27q1_eb
2027Q1 / downside-27.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
downside_fy27q1_cash
2027Q1 / downside-33.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
downside_fy27q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
downside_fy27q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-40.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
downside_fy27q2_weight
2027Q2 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
downside_fy27q2_rev
2027Q2 / downside529.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
downside_fy27q2_eb
2027Q2 / downside-31.74
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
downside_fy27q2_cash
2027Q2 / downside-38.64
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
downside_fy27q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside8.05
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
downside_fy27q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-46.69
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
downside_fy27q3_weight
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
downside_fy27q3_rev
2027Q3 / downside575.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
downside_fy27q3_eb
2027Q3 / downside-34.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
downside_fy27q3_cash
2027Q3 / downside-42.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
downside_fy27q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside8.75
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
downside_fy27q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-50.75
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
downside_fy27q4_weight
2027Q4 / downside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
downside_fy27q4_rev
2027Q4 / downside736.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
downside_fy27q4_eb
2027Q4 / downside-44.16
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
downside_fy27q4_cash
2027Q4 / downside-53.76
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
downside_fy27q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside11.20
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
downside_fy27q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-64.96
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q4_weight).
FY2026 revenue case
base_fy26_rev
FY2026 / base2,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case
base_fy26_eb
FY2026 / base-200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook.
Q4 operating cash assumption
base_q4_cash
2026Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance.
Q4 PP&E and software capex
base_q4_capex
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend.
Q4 implied revenue
base_q4_rev
2026Q4 / base810.03
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_rev, revenue_9m).
Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA
base_q4_eb
2026Q4 / base-109.20
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m).
Q4 cash after combined capex
base_q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base90.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(base_q4_cash, base_q4_capex).
FY2026 operating cash
base_fy26_cash
FY2026 / base-266.53
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, base_q4_cash).
FY2026 combined capex
base_fy26_capex
FY2026 / base31.33
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, base_q4_capex).
FY2026 cash after combined capex
base_fy26_fcf
FY2026 / base-297.87
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_cash, base_fy26_capex).
FY2027 delivery / revenue factor
base_delivery_factor
FY2027 / base125.0%
ratio
assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin
base_eb_margin
FY2027 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin.
FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment
base_cash_bridge
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement.
FY2027 combined capex
base_fy27_capex
FY2027 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance.
FY2027 revenue
base_fy27_rev
FY2027 / base3,000.00
USD_millions
derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_rev, base_delivery_factor).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA
base_fy27_eb
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_eb_margin).
FY2027 operating cash
base_fy27_cash
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_fy27_eb, base_cash_bridge).
FY2027 cash after combined capex
base_fy27_fcf
FY2027 / base-30.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27_capex).
Quarter share of annual case
base_fy27q1_weight
2027Q1 / base20.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
base_fy27q1_rev
2027Q1 / base600.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
base_fy27q1_eb
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
base_fy27q1_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
base_fy27q1_capex
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
base_fy27q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-6.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
base_fy27q2_weight
2027Q2 / base23.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
base_fy27q2_rev
2027Q2 / base690.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
base_fy27q2_eb
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
base_fy27q2_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
base_fy27q2_capex
2027Q2 / base6.90
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
base_fy27q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-6.90
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
base_fy27q3_weight
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
base_fy27q3_rev
2027Q3 / base750.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
base_fy27q3_eb
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
base_fy27q3_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
base_fy27q3_capex
2027Q3 / base7.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
base_fy27q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-7.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
base_fy27q4_weight
2027Q4 / base32.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
base_fy27q4_rev
2027Q4 / base960.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
base_fy27q4_eb
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
base_fy27q4_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
base_fy27q4_capex
2027Q4 / base9.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
base_fy27q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-9.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q4_weight).
FY2026 revenue case
upside_fy26_rev
FY2026 / upside2,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range.
FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case
upside_fy26_eb
FY2026 / upside-170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook.
Q4 operating cash assumption
upside_q4_cash
2026Q4 / upside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance.
Q4 PP&E and software capex
upside_q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend.
Q4 implied revenue
upside_q4_rev
2026Q4 / upside910.03
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_rev, revenue_9m).
Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA
upside_q4_eb
2026Q4 / upside-79.20
USD_millions
derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m).
Q4 cash after combined capex
upside_q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside192.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(upside_q4_cash, upside_q4_capex).
FY2026 operating cash
upside_fy26_cash
FY2026 / upside-166.53
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, upside_q4_cash).
FY2026 combined capex
upside_fy26_capex
FY2026 / upside29.33
USD_millions
derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, upside_q4_capex).
FY2026 cash after combined capex
upside_fy26_fcf
FY2026 / upside-195.87
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_cash, upside_fy26_capex).
FY2027 delivery / revenue factor
upside_delivery_factor
FY2027 / upside140.0%
ratio
assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth.
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin
upside_eb_margin
FY2027 / upside4.0%
ratio
assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin.
FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment
upside_cash_bridge
FY2027 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement.
FY2027 combined capex
upside_fy27_capex
FY2027 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance.
FY2027 revenue
upside_fy27_rev
FY2027 / upside3,500.00
USD_millions
derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_rev, upside_delivery_factor).
FY2027 adjusted EBITDA
upside_fy27_eb
FY2027 / upside140.00
USD_millions
derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_eb_margin).
FY2027 operating cash
upside_fy27_cash
FY2027 / upside170.00
USD_millions
derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_fy27_eb, upside_cash_bridge).
FY2027 cash after combined capex
upside_fy27_fcf
FY2027 / upside140.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27_capex).
Quarter share of annual case
upside_fy27q1_weight
2027Q1 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
upside_fy27q1_rev
2027Q1 / upside700.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
upside_fy27q1_eb
2027Q1 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
upside_fy27q1_cash
2027Q1 / upside34.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
upside_fy27q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside6.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
upside_fy27q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside28.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q1_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
upside_fy27q2_weight
2027Q2 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
upside_fy27q2_rev
2027Q2 / upside805.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
upside_fy27q2_eb
2027Q2 / upside32.20
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
upside_fy27q2_cash
2027Q2 / upside39.10
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
upside_fy27q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside6.90
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
upside_fy27q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside32.20
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q2_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
upside_fy27q3_weight
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
upside_fy27q3_rev
2027Q3 / upside875.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
upside_fy27q3_eb
2027Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
upside_fy27q3_cash
2027Q3 / upside42.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
upside_fy27q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside7.50
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
upside_fy27q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q3_weight).
Quarter share of annual case
upside_fy27q4_weight
2027Q4 / upside32.0%
ratio
assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially.
Quarter allocation: rev
upside_fy27q4_rev
2027Q4 / upside1,120.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: eb
upside_fy27q4_eb
2027Q4 / upside44.80
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: cash
upside_fy27q4_cash
2027Q4 / upside54.40
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: capex
upside_fy27q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside9.60
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q4_weight).
Quarter allocation: fcf
upside_fy27q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside44.80
USD_millions
derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q4_weight).

Model boundaries

A backlog is only valuable when it converts

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can Fluence deliver contracted projects without another large working-capital or margin shortfall?

Cells, inventory and supplier advances absorb funding ahead of shipment and acceptance; customer deposits can offset that need. Delays can postpone revenue while keeping costs and financing demands in place. Manufacturing scale is useful only when yield, logistics and project readiness support timely recognition. Related-party customers and suppliers also make ownership and counterparty structure relevant. September leadership changes put supply-chain execution at the center of the next review.

The competing explanation

The strongest competing explanation is that losses mainly reflect a difficult manufacturing transition. If corrective work stabilizes output and delayed projects retain their economics, demand could support recovery without a matching increase in fixed costs. The evidence needed is delivered and paid-for work. Order intake alone cannot settle that question.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First sourced company review and operating scenarios, replacing the corporate-history extract and incorporating September 16 guidance.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-3.8-0.0+3.849%
5 sessions-8.0-0.3+8.448%
10 sessions-10.6-0.4+11.347%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  5. [5] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  9. [9] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  10. [10] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  11. [11] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  12. [12] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  13. [13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  14. [14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  15. [15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  16. [16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  17. [17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  18. [18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-25-000015, 10-Q filed 2025-02-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  21. [21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-25-000060, 10-Q filed 2025-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-25-000076, 10-Q filed 2025-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  26. [26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001868941-24-000070, 10-K filed 2024-11-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  27. [27] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  28. [28] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  29. [29] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  30. [30] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  31. [31] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  32. [32] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  33. [33] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  34. [34] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-25-000081, 10-K filed 2025-11-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  36. [36] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-26-000005, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  37. [37] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001104659-26-056304, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001868941-26-000029, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T16:41:06+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001868941.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T16:41:06.635846+00:00 · authored bcbaa8574e3b · generated 45e63833526a · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard