$FLNC
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Research status
Evidence awaiting review · 242 pending evidence leads
- Financial accounts through
- 2026-06-30
- Authored update
- 2026-09-20
- Source scan
- Full model review
- Not recorded
- Latest event review
- Oldest pending lead
Open evidence leads
- 8-K filed 2026-10-09
- Midday Fly By: Stocks rebound as oil prices ease - TipRanks
- Rocket, Copart, Pegasystems, Abeona, Fluence trending by analysts - TipRanks
- Why Is Fluence Energy Stock (FLNC) Plunging in Premarket Today, Sept. 17? - TipRanks
- Why Is FLNC Stock Rising Today? - Stocktwits
Leads require verification; they are not established material changes.
Business
Fluence supplies battery energy-storage systems, operating services and optimization software to utilities, developers and other large power users. Its economics depend on turning contracted projects into installed, accepted systems at an adequate margin. Equipment procurement and manufacturing come before final collection, so inventory, supplier advances and customer deposits can dominate cash generation. Services and software add recurring revenue, but the company remains exposed to large project schedules, battery supply and execution at manufacturing partners.
Three drivers
- Manufacturing output and customer acceptance determine when backlog becomes revenue.
- Project margin must cover operating costs, startup expense and execution overruns.
- Inventory, supplier advances and collections determine funding needs before earnings recover.
Thesis
Our view
Our central question is execution, not whether storage demand exists. September guidance shows that a large backlog can coexist with losses and funding pressure. The next credible improvement is a repeatable chain from manufacturing output to delivered projects, collections and cash. We treat management’s FY2027 cash-neutral-to-positive objective as something to test. Leadership changes make operating accountability more visible, but do not themselves demonstrate recovered production or economics. The new EVE supply framework expands procurement capacity; it does not establish customer sales or resolve Houston execution.
What changes it
Measured U.S. production versus plan, customer acceptance and cash receipts would strengthen the execution case. Another delivery reset, inventory growth without collections, or a financing requirement would weaken it. Rebuild the model when the company supplies its FY2027 plan. Separate recoverable delivery timing from penalties and startup costs; test procurement commitments against orders, deposits and available funding.
Scenario ranges
The operating scenarios above vary named business assumptions. They are not price targets, probabilities, or the short-horizon historical memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q4 2024-09-30 | 2025Q1 2024-12-31 | 2025Q2 2025-03-31 | 2025Q3 2025-06-30 | 2025Q4 2025-09-30 | 2026Q1 2025-12-31 | 2026Q2 2026-03-31 | 2026Q3 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 1,228.1†1 | 186.82 | 431.63 | 602.54 | 1,041.9†1 | 475.22 | 464.93 | 649.84 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 157.5†5 | 21.26 | 42.67 | 89.18 | 142.9†5 | 23.06 | 46.67 | 33.28 |
| Operating income ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net income ($M) | 47.8†9 | -41.510 | -31.011 | 6.312 | 17.9†9 | -45.110 | -20.911 | -32.812 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | — | -0.3213 | -0.2414 | 0.0115 | — | -0.3413 | -0.1614 | -0.2415 |
| Diluted shares (M) | — | 129.516 | 130.017 | 183.618 | — | 131.516 | 132.517 | 138.118 |
| Cash ($M) | 448.719 | 607.420 | 568.621 | 436.322 | 690.823 | 452.624 | 387.325 | 339.323 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 0.026 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 10.5†27 | -211.228 | -46.2†29 | -153.9†30 | 265.7†27 | -226.828 | -121.1†29 | -18.6†30 |
| Capex ($M) | 3.3†31 | 2.132 | 4.4†33 | 3.6†34 | 4.9†31 | 5.832 | 2.5†33 | 1.4†34 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 7.3†35 | -213.3†36 | -50.5†37 | -157.4†38 | 260.9†35 | -232.6†36 | -123.6†37 | -20.0†38 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 810.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 600.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 690.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q3 | 750.0 | — | 2026-09-20 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Fluence: delivery and cash-conversion scenarios
FY2026 starts with September 16 guidance, not the superseded August range. Q4 equals our full-year case less reported nine-month results. FY2027 revenue scales each FY2026 case by an explicit delivery factor; adjusted EBITDA uses a separate margin assumption. Quarterly FY2027 values allocate the annual case 20% / 23% / 25% / 32%. Operating cash is an explicit stress assumption, not inferred from backlog or adjusted EBITDA alone. No scenario probability is assigned. September guidance-bridge cells explain reductions already included in the FY2026 anchors; do not subtract them again. Supplier capacity is excluded from revenue.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reported nine-month revenue | 2026 9M | 1,589.97 | reported. Consolidated revenue, including related parties. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA | 2026 9M | -90.80 | reported. Company non-GAAP measure; rounded to disclosed $0.1M. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Reported nine-month operating cash | 2026 9M | -366.53 | reported. GAAP operating cash flow. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Latest FY2026 revenue guidance | FY2026 | 2,400.00 | management guidance. Approximately $2.4B; replaces the August $3.0B midpoint. Source · 2026-09-16 |
| Latest FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance | FY2026 | -200.00 | management guidance. Approximately $200M loss; no forward GAAP reconciliation available. Source · 2026-09-16 |
| Contracted backlog | 2026-06-30 | 6,400.00 | reported. Rounded disclosure. Timing, cancellations and mix prevent treating backlog as annual sales. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Unrestricted cash and equivalents | 2026-06-30 | 339.33 | reported. Excludes restricted cash; June cash is not a September balance. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Total liquidity | 2026-06-30 | 863.00 | reported. Includes cash, restricted cash and available facilities net of letters of credit; not all cash. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| Late-delivery penalties | FY2026 | 65.00 | management guidance. Contra-revenue component; also included in the EBITDA bridge, not two separate charges. Source · 2026-09-16 |
| Total revenue outlook reduction | FY2026 | 600.00 | derived. Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. |
| Total adjusted EBITDA outlook reduction | FY2026 | 190.00 | derived. Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. |
| FY2027 backlog at September 16 | 2026-09-16 | 2,900.00 | reported. Approximate future delivery backlog; not recognized revenue or guaranteed collections. Source · 2026-09-16 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash ($M) | PP&E + software capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | Cash after capex ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 0.00 | 12.00 | 710.03 | -139.20 | -12.00 |
| 2027Q1 | -33.60 | 7.00 | 460.00 | -27.60 | -40.60 |
| 2027Q2 | -38.64 | 8.05 | 529.00 | -31.74 | -46.69 |
| 2027Q3 | -42.00 | 8.75 | 575.00 | -34.50 | -50.75 |
| FY2026 | -366.53 | 33.33 | 2,300.00 | -230.00 | -399.87 |
| FY2027 | -168.00 | 35.00 | 2,300.00 | -138.00 | -203.00 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash ($M) | PP&E + software capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | Cash after capex ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 100.00 | 10.00 | 810.03 | -109.20 | 90.00 |
| 2027Q1 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 600.00 | 0.00 | -6.00 |
| 2027Q2 | 0.00 | 6.90 | 690.00 | 0.00 | -6.90 |
| 2027Q3 | 0.00 | 7.50 | 750.00 | 0.00 | -7.50 |
| FY2026 | -266.53 | 31.33 | 2,400.00 | -200.00 | -297.87 |
| FY2027 | 0.00 | 30.00 | 3,000.00 | 0.00 | -30.00 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash ($M) | PP&E + software capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | Cash after capex ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 200.00 | 8.00 | 910.03 | -79.20 | 192.00 |
| 2027Q1 | 34.00 | 6.00 | 700.00 | 28.00 | 28.00 |
| 2027Q2 | 39.10 | 6.90 | 805.00 | 32.20 | 32.20 |
| 2027Q3 | 42.50 | 7.50 | 875.00 | 35.00 | 35.00 |
| FY2026 | -166.53 | 29.33 | 2,500.00 | -170.00 | -195.87 |
| FY2027 | 170.00 | 30.00 | 3,500.00 | 140.00 | 140.00 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production-delay revenue reduction sep_production_delay | FY2026 / shared | 450.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Reduction versus prior outlook; not a separate subtraction from revised guidance. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Late-delivery penalties sep_penalties | FY2026 / shared | 65.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Contra-revenue component; also included in the EBITDA bridge, not two separate charges. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Logistics and customer-readiness reduction sep_logistics_delay | FY2026 / shared | 85.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Remaining revenue outlook reduction. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Margin shifted with revenue into FY2027 sep_shifted_margin | FY2026 / shared | 65.00 USD_millions | management guidance: EBITDA effect of revenue timing, distinct from the penalty amount. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Initial new-product rollout cost sep_rollout_cost | FY2026 / shared | 35.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Incremental expected cost in the revised outlook. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Initial Houston volume and quality cost sep_houston_cost | FY2026 / shared | 25.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Incremental expected production cost in the revised outlook. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| FY2027 backlog at September 16 sep_fy27_backlog | 2026-09-16 / shared | 2,900.00 USD_millions | reported: Approximate future delivery backlog; not recognized revenue or guaranteed collections. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Total revenue outlook reduction sep_revenue_reduction | FY2026 / shared | 600.00 USD_millions | derived: Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. Formula: sum(sep_production_delay, sep_penalties, sep_logistics_delay). |
| Total adjusted EBITDA outlook reduction sep_ebitda_reduction | FY2026 / shared | 190.00 USD_millions | derived: Explanation of the September reset, already reflected in the revised guidance anchors. Formula: sum(sep_shifted_margin, sep_penalties, sep_rollout_cost, sep_houston_cost). |
| Reported nine-month revenue revenue_9m | 2026 9M / shared | 1,589.97 USD_millions | reported: Consolidated revenue, including related parties. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA ebitda_9m | 2026 9M / shared | -90.80 USD_millions | reported: Company non-GAAP measure; rounded to disclosed $0.1M. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Reported nine-month operating cash cfo_9m | 2026 9M / shared | -366.53 USD_millions | reported: GAAP operating cash flow. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Nine-month PP&E capex capex_ppe_9m | 2026 9M / shared | 9.68 USD_millions | reported: Cash purchases of property and equipment. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Nine-month software and other capex capex_software_9m | 2026 9M / shared | 11.66 USD_millions | reported: Separate investing cash-flow line. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Nine-month combined capex capex_9m | 2026 9M / shared | 21.33 USD_millions | derived: PP&E plus capitalized software and other. Formula: sum(capex_ppe_9m, capex_software_9m). |
| Latest FY2026 revenue guidance fy26_revenue_guide | FY2026 / shared | 2,400.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Approximately $2.4B; replaces the August $3.0B midpoint. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Latest FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance fy26_ebitda_guide | FY2026 / shared | -200.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Approximately $200M loss; no forward GAAP reconciliation available. Primary source · 2026-09-16 |
| Contracted backlog backlog_june | 2026-06-30 / shared | 6,400.00 USD_millions | reported: Rounded disclosure. Timing, cancellations and mix prevent treating backlog as annual sales. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Unrestricted cash and equivalents cash_june | 2026-06-30 / shared | 339.33 USD_millions | reported: Excludes restricted cash; June cash is not a September balance. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Total liquidity liquidity_june | 2026-06-30 / shared | 863.00 USD_millions | reported: Includes cash, restricted cash and available facilities net of letters of credit; not all cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 revenue case downside_fy26_rev | FY2026 / downside | 2,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case downside_fy26_eb | FY2026 / downside | -230.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook. |
| Q4 operating cash assumption downside_q4_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance. |
| Q4 PP&E and software capex downside_q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend. |
| Q4 implied revenue downside_q4_rev | 2026Q4 / downside | 710.03 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_rev, revenue_9m). |
| Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA downside_q4_eb | 2026Q4 / downside | -139.20 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m). |
| Q4 cash after combined capex downside_q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | -12.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(downside_q4_cash, downside_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 operating cash downside_fy26_cash | FY2026 / downside | -366.53 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, downside_q4_cash). |
| FY2026 combined capex downside_fy26_capex | FY2026 / downside | 33.33 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, downside_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 cash after combined capex downside_fy26_fcf | FY2026 / downside | -399.87 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy26_cash, downside_fy26_capex). |
| FY2027 delivery / revenue factor downside_delivery_factor | FY2027 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth. |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin downside_eb_margin | FY2027 / downside | -6.0% ratio | assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin. |
| FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment downside_cash_bridge | FY2027 / downside | -30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement. |
| FY2027 combined capex downside_fy27_capex | FY2027 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance. |
| FY2027 revenue downside_fy27_rev | FY2027 / downside | 2,300.00 USD_millions | derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_rev, downside_delivery_factor). |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA downside_fy27_eb | FY2027 / downside | -138.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_eb_margin). |
| FY2027 operating cash downside_fy27_cash | FY2027 / downside | -168.00 USD_millions | derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(downside_fy27_eb, downside_cash_bridge). |
| FY2027 cash after combined capex downside_fy27_fcf | FY2027 / downside | -203.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27_capex). |
| Quarter share of annual case downside_fy27q1_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev downside_fy27q1_rev | 2027Q1 / downside | 460.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb downside_fy27q1_eb | 2027Q1 / downside | -27.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash downside_fy27q1_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | -33.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex downside_fy27q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf downside_fy27q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -40.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case downside_fy27q2_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev downside_fy27q2_rev | 2027Q2 / downside | 529.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb downside_fy27q2_eb | 2027Q2 / downside | -31.74 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash downside_fy27q2_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | -38.64 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex downside_fy27q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.05 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf downside_fy27q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -46.69 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case downside_fy27q3_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev downside_fy27q3_rev | 2027Q3 / downside | 575.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb downside_fy27q3_eb | 2027Q3 / downside | -34.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash downside_fy27q3_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | -42.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex downside_fy27q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.75 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf downside_fy27q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -50.75 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case downside_fy27q4_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev downside_fy27q4_rev | 2027Q4 / downside | 736.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_rev, downside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb downside_fy27q4_eb | 2027Q4 / downside | -44.16 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_eb, downside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash downside_fy27q4_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | -53.76 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_cash, downside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex downside_fy27q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 11.20 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_capex, downside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf downside_fy27q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | -64.96 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_fcf, downside_fy27q4_weight). |
| FY2026 revenue case base_fy26_rev | FY2026 / base | 2,400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case base_fy26_eb | FY2026 / base | -200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook. |
| Q4 operating cash assumption base_q4_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance. |
| Q4 PP&E and software capex base_q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend. |
| Q4 implied revenue base_q4_rev | 2026Q4 / base | 810.03 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_rev, revenue_9m). |
| Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA base_q4_eb | 2026Q4 / base | -109.20 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m). |
| Q4 cash after combined capex base_q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 90.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(base_q4_cash, base_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 operating cash base_fy26_cash | FY2026 / base | -266.53 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, base_q4_cash). |
| FY2026 combined capex base_fy26_capex | FY2026 / base | 31.33 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, base_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 cash after combined capex base_fy26_fcf | FY2026 / base | -297.87 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy26_cash, base_fy26_capex). |
| FY2027 delivery / revenue factor base_delivery_factor | FY2027 / base | 125.0% ratio | assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth. |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin base_eb_margin | FY2027 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin. |
| FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment base_cash_bridge | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement. |
| FY2027 combined capex base_fy27_capex | FY2027 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance. |
| FY2027 revenue base_fy27_rev | FY2027 / base | 3,000.00 USD_millions | derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_rev, base_delivery_factor). |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA base_fy27_eb | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_eb_margin). |
| FY2027 operating cash base_fy27_cash | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(base_fy27_eb, base_cash_bridge). |
| FY2027 cash after combined capex base_fy27_fcf | FY2027 / base | -30.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27_capex). |
| Quarter share of annual case base_fy27q1_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev base_fy27q1_rev | 2027Q1 / base | 600.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb base_fy27q1_eb | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash base_fy27q1_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex base_fy27q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 6.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf base_fy27q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | -6.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case base_fy27q2_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev base_fy27q2_rev | 2027Q2 / base | 690.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb base_fy27q2_eb | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash base_fy27q2_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex base_fy27q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 6.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf base_fy27q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | -6.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case base_fy27q3_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev base_fy27q3_rev | 2027Q3 / base | 750.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb base_fy27q3_eb | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash base_fy27q3_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex base_fy27q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 7.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf base_fy27q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | -7.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case base_fy27q4_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev base_fy27q4_rev | 2027Q4 / base | 960.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_rev, base_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb base_fy27q4_eb | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_eb, base_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash base_fy27q4_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_cash, base_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex base_fy27q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 9.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_capex, base_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf base_fy27q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | -9.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_fcf, base_fy27q4_weight). |
| FY2026 revenue case upside_fy26_rev | FY2026 / upside | 2,500.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around approximate September guidance; not a new company range. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA case upside_fy26_eb | FY2026 / upside | -170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk sensitivity around the September loss outlook. |
| Q4 operating cash assumption upside_q4_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Stress collection and inventory release after nine-month cash use; not company cash guidance. |
| Q4 PP&E and software capex upside_q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk combined-capex assumption anchored to latest nine-month spend. |
| Q4 implied revenue upside_q4_rev | 2026Q4 / upside | 910.03 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month revenue. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_rev, revenue_9m). |
| Q4 implied adjusted EBITDA upside_q4_eb | 2026Q4 / upside | -79.20 USD_millions | derived: Full-year case less reported nine-month adjusted EBITDA; subject to rounding. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_eb, ebitda_9m). |
| Q4 cash after combined capex upside_q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 192.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less PP&E and software capex; excludes financing. Formula: subtract(upside_q4_cash, upside_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 operating cash upside_fy26_cash | FY2026 / upside | -166.53 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus assumed Q4 cash. Formula: sum(cfo_9m, upside_q4_cash). |
| FY2026 combined capex upside_fy26_capex | FY2026 / upside | 29.33 USD_millions | derived: Nine-month actual plus Q4 assumption. Formula: sum(capex_9m, upside_q4_capex). |
| FY2026 cash after combined capex upside_fy26_fcf | FY2026 / upside | -195.87 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy26_cash, upside_fy26_capex). |
| FY2027 delivery / revenue factor upside_delivery_factor | FY2027 / upside | 140.0% ratio | assumption: Relative to this FY2026 case. Tests execution recovery; backlog does not set the factor. A factor of 1.25 means 25% growth. |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA margin upside_eb_margin | FY2027 / upside | 4.0% ratio | assumption: Tests execution and cost absorption, including possible continued losses. Not GAAP operating margin. |
| FY2027 EBITDA-to-operating-cash adjustment upside_cash_bridge | FY2027 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Bundled working-capital, tax, interest and other cash effects. Zero does not assert zero working-capital movement. |
| FY2027 combined capex upside_fy27_capex | FY2027 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption for PP&E and software; not management guidance. |
| FY2027 revenue upside_fy27_rev | FY2027 / upside | 3,500.00 USD_millions | derived: FY2026 scenario revenue times delivery factor. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_rev, upside_delivery_factor). |
| FY2027 adjusted EBITDA upside_fy27_eb | FY2027 / upside | 140.00 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed adjusted EBITDA margin. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_eb_margin). |
| FY2027 operating cash upside_fy27_cash | FY2027 / upside | 170.00 USD_millions | derived: Adjusted EBITDA plus assumed cash bridge. Formula: sum(upside_fy27_eb, upside_cash_bridge). |
| FY2027 cash after combined capex upside_fy27_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 140.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating cash less combined capex. Formula: subtract(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27_capex). |
| Quarter share of annual case upside_fy27q1_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev upside_fy27q1_rev | 2027Q1 / upside | 700.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb upside_fy27q1_eb | 2027Q1 / upside | 28.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash upside_fy27q1_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 34.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex upside_fy27q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 6.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf upside_fy27q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 28.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q1_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case upside_fy27q2_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev upside_fy27q2_rev | 2027Q2 / upside | 805.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb upside_fy27q2_eb | 2027Q2 / upside | 32.20 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash upside_fy27q2_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 39.10 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex upside_fy27q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 6.90 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf upside_fy27q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 32.20 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q2_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case upside_fy27q3_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev upside_fy27q3_rev | 2027Q3 / upside | 875.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb upside_fy27q3_eb | 2027Q3 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash upside_fy27q3_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 42.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex upside_fy27q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 7.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf upside_fy27q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q3_weight). |
| Quarter share of annual case upside_fy27q4_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Provisional seasonality. All metrics use the same weight; actual cash seasonality can differ materially. |
| Quarter allocation: rev upside_fy27q4_rev | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,120.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_rev, upside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: eb upside_fy27q4_eb | 2027Q4 / upside | 44.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_eb, upside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: cash upside_fy27q4_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 54.40 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_cash, upside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: capex upside_fy27q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 9.60 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_capex, upside_fy27q4_weight). |
| Quarter allocation: fcf upside_fy27q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 44.80 USD_millions | derived: Annual scenario times explicit quarterly weight. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_fcf, upside_fy27q4_weight). |
Model boundaries
- Initial operating sensitivities, not a complete three-statement model or management FY2027 guidance. The company plans to provide its FY2027 financial update with FY2026 results.
- FY2027 cash depends on inventory, supplier advances, collections and customer deposits. The EBITDA-to-cash adjustment bundles those movements with taxes, interest and other cash items; replace the assumption as detail becomes available.
- Modeled cash after capex subtracts PP&E and capitalized software. Historical generic FCF subtracts only PP&E; neither equals the company-defined supply-chain-financing-adjusted free cash flow.
- No EPS, equity valuation or end-cash forecast: noncontrolling ownership, tax receivable obligations, restricted cash, financing and dilution require separate bridges. Backlog is context, not guaranteed annual revenue.
- The $600M revenue reduction includes $65M of late-delivery penalties, so it is not all deferred FY2027 sales. September FY2027 backlog is context, not revenue guidance; the cash and capital aims remain objectives.
A backlog is only valuable when it converts
Can Fluence deliver contracted projects without another large working-capital or margin shortfall?
Cells, inventory and supplier advances absorb funding ahead of shipment and acceptance; customer deposits can offset that need. Delays can postpone revenue while keeping costs and financing demands in place. Manufacturing scale is useful only when yield, logistics and project readiness support timely recognition. Related-party customers and suppliers also make ownership and counterparty structure relevant. September leadership changes put supply-chain execution at the center of the next review. EVE discloses 16 GWh of committed 2027 deliveries and 190 GWh of reserved 2028-2031 capacity, totaling 206 GWh. Specific purchases remain subject to later orders; these are supplier-side quantities, not Fluence customer backlog.
The competing explanation
The strongest competing explanation is that losses mainly reflect a difficult manufacturing transition. If corrective work stabilizes output and delayed projects retain their economics, demand could support recovery without a matching increase in fixed costs. The evidence needed is delivered and paid-for work. Order intake alone cannot settle that question.
Risks to track
- Manufacturing delays, rework or penalties can erode margin while orders remain intact.
- Customers can defer, modify or cancel projects; backlog is not cash.
- Battery concentration, tariffs and EVE procurement commitments can increase inventory and funding exposure. Pricing, payment terms and project matching require purchase-order evidence.
- Restricted cash and letters of credit make headline liquidity different from spendable cash.
- The June 10-Q discloses an SEC financial-reporting investigation and project/shareholder litigation. Management did not expect the SEC matter to be material based on then-known information, but its outcome and duration were uncertain.
- September law-firm investigations concern manufacturing disclosures. They are separate from the existing SEC matter; allegations and investor solicitations do not establish liability.
Next checkpoints
- FY2026 results and FY2027 plan · November 2026 update planned; exact reporting date unconfirmed (estimated). Test the action plan and quarterly U.S. production reporting against September guidance. Reconcile FY2027 backlog with deliveries, margin, working capital and any funding need.
- Execution disclosures · Each material filing or operating update (event driven). Track production versus plan, delayed-project delivery and operating cash. Date each model revision.
- EVE supply commitments and project matching · As purchase orders and subsequent results are disclosed (event driven). Track the 16 GWh 2027 commitment separately from 190 GWh reserved later capacity; verify pricing, payment obligations, qualification and matching customer projects before changing revenue or cash assumptions.
- Financial-reporting inquiry and litigation · Subsequent SEC filings or court/regulatory developments (event driven). Track the existing SEC inquiry, project dispute and derivative cases separately from September law-firm solicitations. Review any amended complaints, findings, reserves or quantified costs; do not treat the earlier dismissal without prejudice as final closure.
Data coverage and open work
- Financial actuals are June 30, 2026. September 16 guidance and management changes are incorporated; no September cash balance was reported in the reviewed sources.
- The historical table has unresolved operating-income and long-term-debt mappings. Empty cells are unknown, not zero. Net income is attributable to the listed parent; the release also reports consolidated loss before noncontrolling interests.
- Q4 EPS and diluted shares are not filled by subtracting annual and nine-month per-share figures.
- This initial model is not a reconciled three-statement workbook. FY2027 quarterly phasing is provisional.
- EVE discloses a framework subject to later purchase orders, not 206 GWh of unconditional end-customer orders. No disclosed unit pricing or payment schedule supports a dollar purchase obligation or additional modeled revenue.
- Legal posture follows the June 10-Q and current law-firm notices: the securities complaint was dismissed without prejudice in March, derivative actions remain disclosed and the Diablo disgorgement claim was dismissed in December 2025. Other claims are disputed; no invented loss reserve enters the scenarios.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-25 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed mid-range, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -3.3 | -0.2 | +2.5 | 44% |
| 5 sessions | -6.0 | +0.1 | +6.4 | 51% |
| 10 sessions | -9.7 | +0.2 | +9.9 | 51% |
| 1 month (21 sessions) | -14.1 | +0.3 | +16.6 | 52% |
| 3 months (63 sessions) | -24.2 | +3.4 | +38.7 | 58% |
| 6 months (126 sessions) | -42.2 | -1.6 | +51.5 | 46% |
| 1 year (252 sessions) | -61.1 | -1.5 | +74.8 | 49% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side. In the D7 test (403 anchors, 2023-2025) the 1-month band held 76% of outcomes, 3-month 77%, 6-month 76%, 1-year 75%, against a nominal 80%; the analog pool under-represents names that later delisted.