What changed: r11 to r12
September 28 review: recorded the expanded Binance arrangement with its monthly incentive fee and $100M placement, the co-founder director's resignation and the chief financial officer's transition, with checkpoints for the Q3 accounts and the successor. No operating-model cell changed; the fee is unsized in the filing.
Retrieval clocks and internal hashes are excluded. Changed source or accounting definitions are not automatically an economic restatement. The authored reason describes the destination revision.
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| /memory/analogs_n | 300 | 299 |
| /memory/as_of | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 |
| /memory/bands/10d/n | 300 | 260 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p10 | -6.888 | -13.418 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p50 | 0.642 | -0.349 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p90 | 9.333 | 11.844 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p_up | 0.553 | 0.458 |
| /memory/bands/126d/n | 284 | 168 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p10 | -24.536 | -40.557 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p50 | 4.886 | -4.2 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p90 | 36.851 | 35.526 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p_up | 0.592 | 0.417 |
| /memory/bands/1d/n | 300 | 260 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p10 | -1.803 | -3.756 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p50 | 0.033 | -0.15 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p90 | 1.465 | 2.794 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p_up | 0.513 | 0.462 |
| /memory/bands/21d/n | 300 | 184 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p10 | -8.346 | -19.308 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p50 | 1.605 | -1.012 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p90 | 12.843 | 10.423 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p_up | 0.6 | 0.457 |
| /memory/bands/252d/n | 252 | 150 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p10 | -32.991 | -54.832 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p50 | 6.067 | -10.554 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p90 | 53.231 | 49.234 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p_up | 0.571 | 0.373 |
| /memory/bands/5d/n | 300 | 260 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p10 | -5.02 | -7.89 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p50 | 0.26 | -0.25 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p90 | 5.944 | 7.567 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p_up | 0.557 | 0.477 |
| /memory/bands/63d/n | 291 | 178 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p10 | -16.028 | -27.86 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p50 | 2.676 | -1.458 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p90 | 24.856 | 20.671 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p_up | 0.574 | 0.449 |
| /memory/state | down/above/off/stuck/quiet/weak/alone | down/below/off/stuck/quiet/weak/some |
| /meta/as_of | 2026-09-26 | 2026-09-28 |
| /meta/research_reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-28 |
| /meta/revision | 11 | 12 |
| /research/change_note | Added reserve-rate/distribution scenarios, separate ARC recognition/receipt bridge and employee equity cash. | September 28 review: recorded the expanded Binance arrangement with its monthly incentive fee and $100M placement, the co-founder director's resignation and the chief financial officer's transition, with checkpoints for the Q3 accounts and the successor. No operating-model cell changed; the fee is unsized in the filing. |
| /research/checkpoints/0/event | Reserve economics | Binance incentive fee and placement in the accounts |
| /research/checkpoints/0/timing | Next quarterly filing | Q3 filing; date unconfirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/0/watch | Compare average circulation, reserve return, distribution costs and recurring fees. | Find the incentive-fee expense line, USDC held on Binance if disclosed, the 1,237,011 shares in the share count and the $100M in financing cash. Update distribution-cost and share inputs from the filing, not from the announcement. |
| /research/checkpoints/1/event | ARC accounting | Chief financial officer successor |
| /research/checkpoints/1/timing | Q3 filing after September mainnet launch | By December 31, 2026 or on appointment |
| /research/checkpoints/1/watch | Confirm performance obligations, revenue recognition, cash collection and remaining deferred liability. | Confirm the appointment and any change to guidance practice or reporting definitions under the new officer. |
| /research/checkpoints/2/event | Tazapay conditions | Reserve economics |
| /research/checkpoints/2/timing | Closing announcement or next filing | Next quarterly filing |
| /research/checkpoints/2/watch | Confirm closing, stock issued, purchase accounting and integration expenses. | Compare average circulation, reserve return, distribution costs and recurring fees. |
| /research/checkpoints/3/date_status | None | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/3/event | None | ARC accounting |
| /research/checkpoints/3/timing | None | Q3 filing after September mainnet launch |
| /research/checkpoints/3/watch | None | Confirm performance obligations, revenue recognition, cash collection and remaining deferred liability. |
| /research/checkpoints/4/date_status | None | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/4/event | None | Tazapay conditions |
| /research/checkpoints/4/timing | None | Closing announcement or next filing |
| /research/checkpoints/4/watch | None | Confirm closing, stock issued, purchase accounting and integration expenses. |
| /research/economics | Q2 average USDC was $76.524B versus $73.269B at period end. Reserve income $667.7M and other revenue $33.6M produced total $701.3M. H1 adjusted EBITDA under the current definition was $294.9M versus operating income $79.4M. CFO $538.5M contained $222M ARC presale cash; CFO less PP&E/software was $492.4M, or $270.4M excluding that receipt. Award withholding used another $149.5M. External holder reserves are redemption assets, not corporate liquidity. Annual outlook includes $310-330M other revenue, 41.7-43.7% RLDC margin and $570-585M adjusted expenses. Arc mainnet launched September 16; genesis mint does not confirm public token launch or accounting recognition. Tazapay is a proposed approximately $400M stock acquisition, with no acquired sales assumed here. | Q2 average USDC was $76.524B versus $73.269B at period end. Reserve income $667.7M and other revenue $33.6M produced total $701.3M. H1 adjusted EBITDA under the current definition was $294.9M versus operating income $79.4M. CFO $538.5M contained $222M ARC presale cash; CFO less PP&E/software was $492.4M, or $270.4M excluding that receipt. Award withholding used another $149.5M. External holder reserves are redemption assets, not corporate liquidity. Annual outlook includes $310-330M other revenue, 41.7-43.7% RLDC margin and $570-585M adjusted expenses. Arc mainnet launched September 16; genesis mint does not confirm public token launch or accounting recognition. Tazapay is a proposed approximately $400M stock acquisition, with no acquired sales assumed here. On September 17 (filed September 22) Circle subsidiaries expanded the Binance arrangement for five years, with mutual termination rights: Circle pays Binance a monthly incentive fee calculated as a percentage of USDC held on Binance, and Circle sold Binance 1,237,011 Class A shares at $80.84, $100M of proceeds, under a two-year lock-up. On September 25 co-founder director P. Sean Neville resigned for personal reasons, reducing the board to seven, and chief financial officer Jeremy Fox-Geen announced his departure, continuing through December 31, 2026 or until a successor is appointed, with $1.05M severance over 12 months and continued eligibility for the 110%-of-target annual incentive. The placement adds cash and shares; the incentive fee adds a distribution cost that the filing does not size. |
| /research/limitations/8 | None | The September 17 Binance placement ($100M for 1,237,011 Class A shares at $80.84, two-year lock-up) and the monthly incentive fee are disclosed but are not yet in the operating-model cells: cash, share count and retained reserve margin remain at the September 19 calibration until the Q3 filing sizes the fee. The placement is financing cash, not revenue; the fee is a cost, not a change in circulation. |
| /research/reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-28 |
| /research/risks/5 | None | The Binance incentive fee is a new distribution cost scaled to USDC held on that platform; its size is undisclosed and can reduce retained reserve margin as circulation there grows. |
| /research/risks/6 | None | Chief financial officer transition through December 31, 2026 and a smaller board after a co-founder's resignation add execution and disclosure-continuity risk during the Tazapay and ARC accounting periods. |
| /sources/4/retrieved | None | 2026-09-28 |
| /sources/4/title | None | September 22 Form 8-K: expanded Binance arrangement and $100M private placement |
| /sources/4/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000276/crcl-20260917.htm |
| /sources/5/retrieved | None | 2026-09-28 |
| /sources/5/title | None | September 25 Form 8-K: director resignation and chief financial officer transition |
| /sources/5/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1876042/000187604226000279/crcl-20260925.htm |
| /thesis/what_changes_it | Track average USDC, reserve return, distribution costs, other-revenue composition and deferred-token cash before treating revenue growth as recurring cash. | Track average USDC, reserve return, distribution costs, other-revenue composition and deferred-token cash before treating revenue growth as recurring cash. From September 17 the Binance arrangement adds a monthly incentive fee tied to USDC held on Binance and a $100M equity placement; the fee's size and its effect on retained reserve margin are disclosed only in future filings, and the chief financial officer's departure through December 31, 2026 is a separate transition to watch. |