What changed: r3 to r4
September 20 pre-promotion review adds the September 3 gas-lateral plan, September 14 joint water commitment, and September 15 company grid-classification disclosure with regulatory conditions. Existing reported accounts, contracted NOI schedule and scenario numbers are unchanged; no new earnings or accepted capacity was disclosed in the sources reviewed. Numerical forecasts do not treat conditional power or unleased pipeline as rent.
Retrieval clocks and internal hashes are excluded. Changed source or accounting definitions are not automatically an economic restatement. The authored reason describes the destination revision.
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| /estimates/basis | Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. | Desk base scenario from the operating model; not consensus. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q3/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q3/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q4/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2026Q4/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q1/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q1/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q2/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /estimates/rows/2027Q2/basis | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| /meta/as_of | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /meta/research_reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /meta/revision | 3 | 4 |
| /operating_model/limitations/5 | None | September gas-lateral development and the shared $10M water commitment are disclosed, but Cipher-specific incremental costs and payment timing are unquantified. They are not separately forecast; contracted-project cash-after-capex can overstate retained cash if these add spending. Conditional pipeline capacity remains outside forecast rent. |
| /operating_model/method | Use the company annual contracted HPC NOI schedule as the reference, then vary delivery, quarterly phasing and the NOI-to-revenue conversion. Add separately modeled Bitcoin revenue. Subtract cash overhead, contractual coupon accrual and other cash uses, then construction spending. Historical H1 cash includes Bitcoin-sale proceeds classified in investing activities. Cash metrics are analytical proxies, not GAAP cash flow or distributable cash. FY2026 combines reported H1 with two forecast quarters; FY2027 sums four desk quarters. | Use the company annual contracted HPC NOI schedule as the reference, then vary delivery, quarterly phasing and the NOI-to-revenue conversion. Add separately modeled Bitcoin revenue. Subtract cash overhead, contractual coupon accrual and other cash uses, then construction spending. Historical H1 cash includes Bitcoin-sale proceeds classified in investing activities. Cash metrics are analytical proxies, not GAAP cash flow or distributable cash. FY2026 combines reported H1 with two forecast quarters; FY2027 sums four desk quarters. September conditional grid capacity and proposed generation are monitored in checkpoints and contribute no additional modeled revenue; incremental expansion costs remain unquantified. |
| /operating_model/reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /research/change_note | First sourced review and operating scenarios as of September 19, 2026. Uses August results and contract/coupon disclosures. Pipeline options remain outside modeled revenue. | September 20 pre-promotion review adds the September 3 gas-lateral plan, September 14 joint water commitment, and September 15 company grid-classification disclosure with regulatory conditions. Existing reported accounts, contracted NOI schedule and scenario numbers are unchanged; no new earnings or accepted capacity was disclosed in the sources reviewed. Numerical forecasts do not treat conditional power or unleased pipeline as rent. |
| /research/checkpoints/3/date_status | None | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/3/event | None | ERCOT conditional classifications and audit |
| /research/checkpoints/3/timing | None | December 2026 company update expectation; date unconfirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/3/watch | None | Verify final conditions and site status. Cipher lists Stingray 100 MW and Colchis 1 GW as conditional base load; Mikeska 500 MW, Apollo 900 MW, Stingray II 200 MW and McLennan 500 MW as conditional studied load. The first three studied sites are PCLR-qualified; do not equate that with firm unrestricted power. |
| /research/checkpoints/4/date_status | None | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/4/event | None | Gas laterals and incremental funding |
| /research/checkpoints/4/timing | None | New power before end-2027 company objective; date unconfirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/4/watch | None | Track pipeline cost, funding responsibilities, power-provider agreements, permits and commissioning before adding revenue. The September 3 plan supports up to 2.5 GW of prospective generation, not installed capacity. |
| /research/checkpoints/5/date_status | None | estimated |
| /research/checkpoints/5/event | None | Colorado City water contribution |
| /research/checkpoints/5/timing | None | Committed September 14, 2026; cash-payment schedule unconfirmed |
| /research/checkpoints/5/watch | None | Determine Cipher's portion and timing of the combined $10M commitment with Fluidstack and Anthropic. Barber Lake uses its own on-site supply. Do not assign the whole joint commitment to Cipher or assume it has already been paid. |
| /research/countercase | Contracted demand and tenant credit support reduce demand uncertainty but do not eliminate construction execution, payment conditions or parent financing risk. Power options and land can remain uneconomic if incremental funding costs or build costs exceed the eventual lease return. | Contracted demand and tenant credit support reduce demand uncertainty but do not eliminate construction execution, payment conditions or parent financing risk. Power options and land can remain uneconomic if incremental funding costs or build costs exceed the eventual lease return. Conditional grid treatment can change after verification; planned gas supply does not establish generation completion, firm power availability or signed tenant revenue. |
| /research/economics | The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately. | The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately. September developments concern future power access and spending: conditional grid classifications and gas laterals do not establish new rent or tenant acceptance. The existing contracted-project scenarios remain the numerical base. |
| /research/limitations/5 | None | September gas-lateral development and the shared $10M water commitment are disclosed, but Cipher-specific incremental costs and payment timing are unquantified. They are not separately forecast; contracted-project cash-after-capex can overstate retained cash if these add spending. Conditional pipeline capacity remains outside forecast rent. |
| /research/reviewed_at | 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-20 |
| /research/risks/5 | None | The September grid designations remain conditional: 1.1 GW base load and 2.1 GW studied load are not blanket energization approvals. Failure to satisfy verification or modeling conditions can remove projects from Batch Zero. |
| /research/risks/6 | None | New gas-lateral spending and community contributions may use cash beyond the contracted-project capex assumptions; company-specific amounts and payment timing were not disclosed. |
| /sources/3/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/3/title | None | September 3 gas-lateral development plan; capacity is prospective |
| /sources/3/url | None | https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-begins-development-lateral-pipelines-facilitate |
| /sources/4/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/4/title | None | September 14 joint water commitment; company allocation undisclosed |
| /sources/4/url | None | https://investors.cipherdigital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/cipher-digital-fluidstack-and-anthropic-commit-10-million-repair |
| /sources/5/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/5/title | None | September 15 official company site-by-site conditional grid designations; authenticated X read |
| /sources/5/url | None | https://x.com/CipherInc/status/2099954708446064826 |
| /sources/6/retrieved | None | 2026-09-20 |
| /sources/6/title | None | September 3 ERCOT notice: conditions can disqualify provisional Batch Zero loads |
| /sources/6/url | None | https://www.ercot.com/services/comm/mkt_notices/M-A080326-04 |
| /thesis/view | The useful underwriting question is whether the existing contracted projects start rent on schedule and retain enough cash after financing. The company schedule rises from $97M HPC NOI in 2026 to $686M in 2027, but these are property economics, not parent free cash flow. A large restricted cash balance finances a large construction obligation. Successful delivery can change the earnings mix quickly; it does not automatically remove the need for disciplined financing. | The useful underwriting question is whether the existing contracted projects start rent on schedule and retain enough cash after financing. The company schedule rises from $97M HPC NOI in 2026 to $686M in 2027, but these are property economics, not parent free cash flow. A large restricted cash balance finances a large construction obligation. Successful delivery can change the earnings mix quickly; it does not automatically remove the need for disciplined financing. September power-access developments add options, subject to regulatory conditions and funding, rather than new contracted rent in this model. |
| /thesis/what_changes_it | Track actual rent commencement, construction cash spending and the unrestricted-cash balance. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI matching the schedule strengthen it. | Track actual rent commencement, construction cash spending and the unrestricted-cash balance. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI matching the schedule strengthen it. Also verify the grid audit, firm versus controllable power rights, and incremental gas-lateral cash obligations. |