$CIFR
Business
Cipher Digital is converting a Bitcoin-mining platform into a developer and owner of HPC data centers. Long leases can produce recurring property income, but revenue starts only after tenant delivery and acceptance. Mining remains a smaller source of cash while construction, project debt and restricted reserves dominate the funding picture.
Three drivers
- Contracted capacity delivered and accepted on time
- Property NOI retained after overhead and financing
- Construction spending, restricted cash and debt service
Thesis
Our view
The useful underwriting question is whether the existing contracted projects start rent on schedule and retain enough cash after financing. The company schedule rises from $97M HPC NOI in 2026 to $686M in 2027, but these are property economics, not parent free cash flow. A large restricted cash balance finances a large construction obligation. Successful delivery can change the earnings mix quickly; it does not automatically remove the need for disciplined financing.
What changes it
Track actual rent commencement, construction cash spending and the unrestricted-cash balance. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI matching the schedule strengthen it.
Scenario ranges
Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 24.11 | 42.2†2 | 49.03 | 43.64 | 71.71 | 59.7†2 | 34.83 | 24.84 |
| Gross profit ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income ($M) | -91.45 | 17.1†6 | -38.17 | -45.28 | -37.65 | -300.6†6 | -114.67 | -78.58 |
| Net income ($M) | -86.89 | 17.5†10 | -39.011 | -45.812 | -3.39 | -734.2†10 | -114.311 | -267.512 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -0.2613 | — | -0.1114 | -0.1215 | -0.0113 | — | -0.2814 | -0.6515 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 332.716 | — | 360.517 | 375.118 | 393.216 | — | 405.117 | 409.418 |
| Cash ($M) | 25.319 | 5.620 | 23.221 | 62.722 | 1,207.419 | 628.322 | 715.221 | 831.822 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | 0.023 | — | 167.124 | 1,023.125 | 2,711.626 | 4,376.827 | 5,446.926 |
| Cash from operations ($M) | -6.5†28 | -29.0†29 | -47.230 | -56.2†31 | -50.1†28 | -54.4†29 | 91.530 | -243.5†31 |
| Capex ($M) | 76.6†32 | 47.1†33 | 99.734 | 118.6†35 | 43.8†32 | 225.9†33 | 554.034 | 410.3†35 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | -83.2†36 | -76.1†37 | -146.9†38 | -174.8†39 | -93.8†36 | -280.3†37 | -462.5†38 | -653.8†39 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 33.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 124.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 153.2 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 197.7 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
Contracted rent, delivery timing and project cash
Use the company annual contracted HPC NOI schedule as the reference, then vary delivery, quarterly phasing and the NOI-to-revenue conversion. Add separately modeled Bitcoin revenue. Subtract cash overhead, contractual coupon accrual and other cash uses, then construction spending. Historical H1 cash includes Bitcoin-sale proceeds classified in investing activities. Cash metrics are analytical proxies, not GAAP cash flow or distributable cash. FY2026 combines reported H1 with two forecast quarters; FY2027 sums four desk quarters.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| June unrestricted cash | 2026Q2 | 831.83 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| Total restricted cash | 2026Q2 | 3,727.96 | derived. Current plus noncurrent restricted cash; not available corporate liquidity. |
| Total debt principal | 2026Q2 | 6,015.50 | derived. Five disclosed instruments; excludes undrawn revolver. |
| Annual contractual coupon run rate | Annual | 297.60 | derived. Static June debt principal times stated rates; economic accrual, not payment calendar. |
| Company contracted NOI schedule 2026 | FY2026 | 97.00 | management guidance. Company schedule on presentation slide 4; non-GAAP property NOI, not revenue or a guaranteed payment. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| Company contracted NOI schedule 2027 | FY2027 | 686.00 | management guidance. Company schedule on presentation slide 4; non-GAAP property NOI, not revenue or a guaranteed payment. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 cash after PP&E including Bitcoin sales | H1 2026 | -992.84 | derived. Analytical cash bridge; Bitcoin sales are investing cash flow. |
Downside scenario
| Period | Cash construction capex ($M) | HPC property NOI ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Cash after capex proxy ($M) | Cash before capex proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 650.00 | 2.18 | 22.44 | -760.23 | -110.23 |
| 2026Q4 | 650.00 | 70.57 | 100.41 | -692.09 | -42.09 |
| 2027Q1 | 400.00 | 65.86 | 93.62 | -446.93 | -46.93 |
| 2027Q2 | 350.00 | 120.74 | 156.94 | -342.17 | 7.83 |
| FY2026 | 2,264.26 | 72.75 | 182.52 | -2,445.16 | -180.90 |
| FY2027 | 1,200.00 | 548.80 | 702.77 | -1,103.08 | 96.92 |
Base scenario
| Period | Cash construction capex ($M) | HPC property NOI ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Cash after capex proxy ($M) | Cash before capex proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 600.00 | 7.76 | 33.46 | -692.43 | -92.43 |
| 2026Q4 | 600.00 | 89.24 | 123.99 | -610.95 | -10.95 |
| 2027Q1 | 350.00 | 116.62 | 153.17 | -333.88 | 16.12 |
| 2027Q2 | 300.00 | 157.78 | 197.66 | -243.03 | 56.97 |
| FY2026 | 2,164.26 | 97.00 | 217.13 | -2,296.22 | -131.96 |
| FY2027 | 1,000.00 | 686.00 | 849.15 | -717.86 | 282.14 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Cash construction capex ($M) | HPC property NOI ($M) | Revenue ($M) | Cash after capex proxy ($M) | Cash before capex proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 550.00 | 12.22 | 43.09 | -629.25 | -79.25 |
| 2026Q4 | 550.00 | 89.63 | 127.23 | -551.85 | -1.85 |
| 2027Q1 | 300.00 | 141.32 | 182.17 | -250.66 | 49.34 |
| 2027Q2 | 250.00 | 169.58 | 211.65 | -172.89 | 77.11 |
| FY2026 | 2,064.26 | 101.85 | 229.99 | -2,173.94 | -109.68 |
| FY2027 | 800.00 | 706.58 | 874.82 | -464.30 | 335.70 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| One quarter of a year quarter | Model / shared | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic time conversion. |
| Average divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 59.67 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 GAAP operating cash flow h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | -152.01 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 Bitcoin sale proceeds, investing h1_btc_sales | H1 2026 / shared | 123.43 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 cash PP&E purchases h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 964.26 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| June unrestricted cash h1_cash | 2026Q2 / shared | 831.83 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| June current restricted cash h1_restricted_current | 2026Q2 / shared | 3,188.45 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| June noncurrent restricted cash h1_restricted_noncurrent | 2026Q2 / shared | 539.51 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q2 mining revenue h1_q2_mining | 2026Q2 / shared | 24.84 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Total restricted cash restricted_cash | 2026Q2 / shared | 3,727.96 USD_millions | derived: Current plus noncurrent restricted cash; not available corporate liquidity. Formula: sum(h1_restricted_current, h1_restricted_noncurrent). |
| H1 cash before PP&E including Bitcoin sales h1_cash_before_capex | H1 2026 / shared | -28.58 USD_millions | derived: GAAP CFO plus separately classified Bitcoin-sale proceeds. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, h1_btc_sales). |
| H1 cash after PP&E including Bitcoin sales h1_cash_after_capex | H1 2026 / shared | -992.84 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge; Bitcoin sales are investing cash flow. Formula: subtract(h1_cash_before_capex, h1_capex). |
| H1 HPC NOI before first lease commencement h1_hpc_noi | H1 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk inference of no HPC NOI before first HPC rent commencement in August; H1 reported revenue was mining. See August business update. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Company contracted NOI schedule 2026 noi_schedule_2026 | FY2026 / shared | 97.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company schedule on presentation slide 4; non-GAAP property NOI, not revenue or a guaranteed payment. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Company contracted NOI schedule 2027 noi_schedule_2027 | FY2027 / shared | 686.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company schedule on presentation slide 4; non-GAAP property NOI, not revenue or a guaranteed payment. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| barber debt principal barber_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,733.00 USD_millions | reported: Debt table principal, not balance-sheet carrying value. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| barber coupon rate barber_coupon_rate | Annual / shared | 7.1% ratio | reported: Contractual coupon; excludes financing fees and principal. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| barber annual coupon barber_coupon | Annual / shared | 123.48 USD_millions | derived: Principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(barber_principal, barber_coupon_rate). |
| black pearl debt principal black_pearl_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 2,000.00 USD_millions | reported: Debt table principal, not balance-sheet carrying value. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| black pearl coupon rate black_pearl_coupon_rate | Annual / shared | 6.1% ratio | reported: Contractual coupon; excludes financing fees and principal. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| black pearl annual coupon black_pearl_coupon | Annual / shared | 122.50 USD_millions | derived: Principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(black_pearl_principal, black_pearl_coupon_rate). |
| stingray debt principal stingray_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 810.00 USD_millions | reported: Debt table principal, not balance-sheet carrying value. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| stingray coupon rate stingray_coupon_rate | Annual / shared | 6.0% ratio | reported: Contractual coupon; excludes financing fees and principal. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| stingray annual coupon stingray_coupon | Annual / shared | 48.60 USD_millions | derived: Principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(stingray_principal, stingray_coupon_rate). |
| convert 2029 debt principal convert_2029_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 172.50 USD_millions | reported: Debt table principal, not balance-sheet carrying value. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| convert 2029 coupon rate convert_2029_coupon_rate | Annual / shared | 1.8% ratio | reported: Contractual coupon; excludes financing fees and principal. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| convert 2029 annual coupon convert_2029_coupon | Annual / shared | 3.02 USD_millions | derived: Principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(convert_2029_principal, convert_2029_coupon_rate). |
| convert 2031 debt principal convert_2031_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,300.00 USD_millions | reported: Debt table principal, not balance-sheet carrying value. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| convert 2031 coupon rate convert_2031_coupon_rate | Annual / shared | 0.0% ratio | reported: Contractual coupon; excludes financing fees and principal. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| convert 2031 annual coupon convert_2031_coupon | Annual / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Principal times stated coupon. Formula: multiply(convert_2031_principal, convert_2031_coupon_rate). |
| Total debt principal debt_principal | 2026Q2 / shared | 6,015.50 USD_millions | derived: Five disclosed instruments; excludes undrawn revolver. Formula: sum(barber_principal, black_pearl_principal, stingray_principal, convert_2029_principal, convert_2031_principal). |
| Annual contractual coupon run rate annual_coupon | Annual / shared | 297.60 USD_millions | derived: Static June debt principal times stated rates; economic accrual, not payment calendar. Formula: sum(barber_coupon, black_pearl_coupon, stingray_coupon, convert_2029_coupon, convert_2031_coupon). |
| Quarterly coupon accrual quarter_coupon | Forecast / shared | 74.40 USD_millions | derived: Even quarterly coupon burden; capex excludes debt principal. Formula: multiply(annual_coupon, quarter). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor downside_2026_delivery | FY2026 / downside | 75.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI downside_2026_noi | FY2026 / downside | 72.75 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2026, downside_2026_delivery). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor downside_2027_delivery | FY2027 / downside | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI downside_2027_noi | FY2027 / downside | 548.80 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2027, downside_2027_delivery). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2026q3_noi_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 3.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2026q3_hpc_noi | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.18 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2026_noi, downside_2026q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2026q3_property_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.57 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_hpc_noi, downside_2026q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2026q3_mining_factor | 2026Q3 / downside | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2026q3_mining | 2026Q3 / downside | 19.87 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2026q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 22.44 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2026q3_mining_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2026q3_mining_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 1.99 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mining, downside_2026q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2026q3_property_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 4.17 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_hpc_noi, downside_2026q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2026q3_corp | 2026Q3 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2026q3_other | 2026Q3 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2026q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | -110.23 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_property_cash, downside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | -760.23 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2026q4_noi_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 97.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2026q4_hpc_noi | 2026Q4 / downside | 70.57 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2026_noi, downside_2026q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2026q4_property_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 83.02 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_hpc_noi, downside_2026q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2026q4_mining_factor | 2026Q4 / downside | 70.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2026q4_mining | 2026Q4 / downside | 17.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2026q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 100.41 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2026q4_mining_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2026q4_mining_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 1.74 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mining, downside_2026q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2026q4_property_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 72.31 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_hpc_noi, downside_2026q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2026q4_corp | 2026Q4 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2026q4_other | 2026Q4 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2026q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | -42.09 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_property_cash, downside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | -692.09 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2027q1_noi_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2027q1_hpc_noi | 2027Q1 / downside | 65.86 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027_noi, downside_2027q1_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2027q1_property_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 77.48 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_hpc_noi, downside_2027q1_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2027q1_mining_factor | 2027Q1 / downside | 65.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2027q1_mining | 2027Q1 / downside | 16.14 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q1_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 93.62 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q1_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2027q1_mining_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2027q1_mining_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 1.61 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mining, downside_2027q1_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2027q1_property_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 67.47 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_noi, downside_2027q1_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2027q1_corp | 2027Q1 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2027q1_other | 2027Q1 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2027q1_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | -46.93 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_property_cash, downside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | -446.93 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2027q2_noi_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 22.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2027q2_hpc_noi | 2027Q2 / downside | 120.74 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027_noi, downside_2027q2_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2027q2_property_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 142.04 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_hpc_noi, downside_2027q2_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2027q2_mining_factor | 2027Q2 / downside | 60.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2027q2_mining | 2027Q2 / downside | 14.90 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q2_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 156.94 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q2_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2027q2_mining_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2027q2_mining_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 1.49 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mining, downside_2027q2_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2027q2_property_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 122.23 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_hpc_noi, downside_2027q2_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2027q2_corp | 2027Q2 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2027q2_other | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2027q2_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 7.83 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_property_cash, downside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 350.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | -342.17 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2027q3_noi_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2027q3_hpc_noi | 2027Q3 / downside | 170.13 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027_noi, downside_2027q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2027q3_property_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 200.15 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_hpc_noi, downside_2027q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2027q3_mining_factor | 2027Q3 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2027q3_mining | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.66 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 213.81 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2027q3_mining_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2027q3_mining_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 1.37 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mining, downside_2027q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2027q3_property_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 171.49 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_hpc_noi, downside_2027q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2027q3_corp | 2027Q3 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2027q3_other | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2027q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 57.10 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_property_cash, downside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | -192.90 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI downside_2027q4_noi_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI downside_2027q4_hpc_noi | 2027Q4 / downside | 192.08 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_2027_noi, downside_2027q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption downside_2027q4_property_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 225.98 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_hpc_noi, downside_2027q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline downside_2027q4_mining_factor | 2027Q4 / downside | 50.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue downside_2027q4_mining | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.42 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 238.39 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin downside_2027q4_mining_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution downside_2027q4_mining_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 1.24 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mining, downside_2027q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution downside_2027q4_property_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 193.32 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_hpc_noi, downside_2027q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead downside_2027q4_corp | 2027Q4 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses downside_2027q4_other | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses downside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 114.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_corp, quarter_coupon, downside_2027q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 78.92 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_property_cash, downside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | -121.08 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 182.52 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| FY2026 HPC property NOI ($M) downside_fy2026_hpc_noi | FY2026 / downside | 72.75 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_noi, downside_2026q3_hpc_noi, downside_2026q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_before_capex | FY2026 / downside | -180.90 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 2,264.26 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_capex | FY2026 / downside | -2,445.16 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex). |
| FY2027 Revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 702.77 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| FY2027 HPC property NOI ($M) downside_fy2027_hpc_noi | FY2027 / downside | 548.80 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_noi, downside_2027q2_hpc_noi, downside_2027q3_hpc_noi, downside_2027q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_before_capex | FY2027 / downside | 96.92 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 1,200.00 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_capex | FY2027 / downside | -1,103.08 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor base_2026_delivery | FY2026 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI base_2026_noi | FY2026 / base | 97.00 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2026, base_2026_delivery). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor base_2027_delivery | FY2027 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI base_2027_noi | FY2027 / base | 686.00 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2027, base_2027_delivery). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2026q3_noi_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2026q3_hpc_noi | 2026Q3 / base | 7.76 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2026_noi, base_2026q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2026q3_property_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2026q3_hpc_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 8.62 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_hpc_noi, base_2026q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2026q3_mining_factor | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2026q3_mining | 2026Q3 / base | 24.84 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2026q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 33.46 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_hpc_revenue, base_2026q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2026q3_mining_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2026q3_mining_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 6.21 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mining, base_2026q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2026q3_property_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 13.97 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_hpc_noi, base_2026q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2026q3_corp | 2026Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2026q3_other | 2026Q3 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2026q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2026q3_cash_before_capex | 2026Q3 / base | -92.43 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_property_cash, base_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2026q3_cash_after_capex | 2026Q3 / base | -692.43 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_capex, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2026q4_noi_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2026q4_hpc_noi | 2026Q4 / base | 89.24 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2026_noi, base_2026q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2026q4_property_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2026q4_hpc_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 99.16 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_hpc_noi, base_2026q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2026q4_mining_factor | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2026q4_mining | 2026Q4 / base | 24.84 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2026q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 123.99 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_hpc_revenue, base_2026q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2026q4_mining_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2026q4_mining_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 6.21 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mining, base_2026q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2026q4_property_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 95.45 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_hpc_noi, base_2026q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2026q4_corp | 2026Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2026q4_other | 2026Q4 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2026q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2026q4_cash_before_capex | 2026Q4 / base | -10.95 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_property_cash, base_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2026q4_cash_after_capex | 2026Q4 / base | -610.95 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2027q1_noi_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2027q1_hpc_noi | 2027Q1 / base | 116.62 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2027_noi, base_2027q1_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2027q1_property_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2027q1_hpc_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 129.58 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_hpc_noi, base_2027q1_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2027q1_mining_factor | 2027Q1 / base | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2027q1_mining | 2027Q1 / base | 23.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q1_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 153.17 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_revenue, base_2027q1_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2027q1_mining_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2027q1_mining_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 5.90 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mining, base_2027q1_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2027q1_property_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 122.52 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_noi, base_2027q1_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2027q1_corp | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2027q1_other | 2027Q1 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2027q1_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2027q1_cash_before_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 16.12 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_property_cash, base_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 350.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2027q1_cash_after_capex | 2027Q1 / base | -333.88 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_capex, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2027q2_noi_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2027q2_hpc_noi | 2027Q2 / base | 157.78 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2027_noi, base_2027q2_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2027q2_property_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2027q2_hpc_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 175.31 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_hpc_noi, base_2027q2_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2027q2_mining_factor | 2027Q2 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2027q2_mining | 2027Q2 / base | 22.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q2_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 197.66 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_hpc_revenue, base_2027q2_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2027q2_mining_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2027q2_mining_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 5.59 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mining, base_2027q2_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2027q2_property_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 163.37 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_hpc_noi, base_2027q2_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2027q2_corp | 2027Q2 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2027q2_other | 2027Q2 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2027q2_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2027q2_cash_before_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 56.97 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_property_cash, base_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2027q2_cash_after_capex | 2027Q2 / base | -243.03 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_capex, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2027q3_noi_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 29.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2027q3_hpc_noi | 2027Q3 / base | 198.94 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2027_noi, base_2027q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2027q3_property_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2027q3_hpc_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 221.04 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_hpc_noi, base_2027q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2027q3_mining_factor | 2027Q3 / base | 85.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2027q3_mining | 2027Q3 / base | 21.11 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 242.16 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_hpc_revenue, base_2027q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2027q3_mining_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2027q3_mining_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 5.28 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mining, base_2027q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2027q3_property_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 204.22 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_hpc_noi, base_2027q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2027q3_corp | 2027Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2027q3_other | 2027Q3 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2027q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2027q3_cash_before_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 97.82 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_property_cash, base_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2027q3_cash_after_capex | 2027Q3 / base | -102.18 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_capex, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI base_2027q4_noi_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI base_2027q4_hpc_noi | 2027Q4 / base | 212.66 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(base_2027_noi, base_2027q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption base_2027q4_property_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue base_2027q4_hpc_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 236.29 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_hpc_noi, base_2027q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline base_2027q4_mining_factor | 2027Q4 / base | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue base_2027q4_mining | 2027Q4 / base | 19.87 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 256.16 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_hpc_revenue, base_2027q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin base_2027q4_mining_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution base_2027q4_mining_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 4.97 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mining, base_2027q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution base_2027q4_property_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 217.63 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_hpc_noi, base_2027q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead base_2027q4_corp | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses base_2027q4_other | 2027Q4 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses base_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 106.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_corp, quarter_coupon, base_2027q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy base_2027q4_cash_before_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 111.23 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_property_cash, base_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy base_2027q4_cash_after_capex | 2027Q4 / base | -38.77 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 217.13 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| FY2026 HPC property NOI ($M) base_fy2026_hpc_noi | FY2026 / base | 97.00 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_noi, base_2026q3_hpc_noi, base_2026q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cash_before_capex | FY2026 / base | -131.96 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, base_2026q3_cash_before_capex, base_2026q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 2,164.26 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_capex | FY2026 / base | -2,296.22 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, base_2026q3_cash_after_capex, base_2026q4_cash_after_capex). |
| FY2027 Revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 849.15 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| FY2027 HPC property NOI ($M) base_fy2027_hpc_noi | FY2027 / base | 686.00 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_noi, base_2027q2_hpc_noi, base_2027q3_hpc_noi, base_2027q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cash_before_capex | FY2027 / base | 282.14 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_before_capex, base_2027q2_cash_before_capex, base_2027q3_cash_before_capex, base_2027q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 1,000.00 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_capex | FY2027 / base | -717.86 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capex, base_2027q2_cash_after_capex, base_2027q3_cash_after_capex, base_2027q4_cash_after_capex). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor upside_2026_delivery | FY2026 / upside | 105.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI upside_2026_noi | FY2026 / upside | 101.85 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2026, upside_2026_delivery). |
| Contracted NOI realization factor upside_2027_delivery | FY2027 / upside | 103.0% ratio | assumption: Desk sensitivity to delivery and ramp timing versus company contracted NOI schedule; not added capacity. |
| Annual scenario HPC NOI upside_2027_noi | FY2027 / upside | 706.58 USD_millions | derived: Company reference times desk realization factor. Formula: multiply(noi_schedule_2027, upside_2027_delivery). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2026q3_noi_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2026q3_hpc_noi | 2026Q3 / upside | 12.22 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2026_noi, upside_2026q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2026q3_property_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 13.28 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_hpc_noi, upside_2026q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2026q3_mining_factor | 2026Q3 / upside | 120.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2026q3_mining | 2026Q3 / upside | 29.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2026q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 43.09 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2026q3_mining_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2026q3_mining_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 11.92 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mining, upside_2026q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2026q3_property_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 24.14 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_hpc_noi, upside_2026q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2026q3_corp | 2026Q3 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2026q3_other | 2026Q3 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2026q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | -79.25 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_property_cash, upside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | -629.25 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2026q4_noi_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 88.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2026q4_hpc_noi | 2026Q4 / upside | 89.63 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2026_noi, upside_2026q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2026q4_property_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 97.42 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_hpc_noi, upside_2026q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2026q4_mining_factor | 2026Q4 / upside | 120.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2026q4_mining | 2026Q4 / upside | 29.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2026q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 127.23 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2026q4_mining_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2026q4_mining_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 11.92 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mining, upside_2026q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2026q4_property_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 101.55 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_hpc_noi, upside_2026q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2026q4_corp | 2026Q4 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2026q4_other | 2026Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2026q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | -1.85 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_property_cash, upside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | -551.85 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2027q1_noi_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2027q1_hpc_noi | 2027Q1 / upside | 141.32 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027_noi, upside_2027q1_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2027q1_property_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 153.60 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_hpc_noi, upside_2027q1_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2027q1_mining_factor | 2027Q1 / upside | 115.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2027q1_mining | 2027Q1 / upside | 28.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q1_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 182.17 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q1_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2027q1_mining_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2027q1_mining_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 11.43 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mining, upside_2027q1_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2027q1_property_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 152.74 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_noi, upside_2027q1_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2027q1_corp | 2027Q1 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2027q1_other | 2027Q1 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2027q1_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 49.34 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_property_cash, upside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | -250.66 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2027q2_noi_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2027q2_hpc_noi | 2027Q2 / upside | 169.58 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027_noi, upside_2027q2_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2027q2_property_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 184.33 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_hpc_noi, upside_2027q2_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2027q2_mining_factor | 2027Q2 / upside | 110.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2027q2_mining | 2027Q2 / upside | 27.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q2_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 211.65 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q2_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2027q2_mining_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2027q2_mining_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.93 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mining, upside_2027q2_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2027q2_property_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 180.51 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_hpc_noi, upside_2027q2_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2027q2_corp | 2027Q2 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2027q2_other | 2027Q2 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2027q2_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 77.11 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_property_cash, upside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | -172.89 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2027q3_noi_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 28.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2027q3_hpc_noi | 2027Q3 / upside | 197.84 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027_noi, upside_2027q3_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2027q3_property_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 215.05 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_hpc_noi, upside_2027q3_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2027q3_mining_factor | 2027Q3 / upside | 105.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2027q3_mining | 2027Q3 / upside | 26.08 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q3_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 241.12 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q3_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2027q3_mining_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2027q3_mining_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.43 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mining, upside_2027q3_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2027q3_property_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 208.27 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_hpc_noi, upside_2027q3_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2027q3_corp | 2027Q3 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2027q3_other | 2027Q3 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2027q3_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 104.88 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_property_cash, upside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | -45.12 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Share of annual HPC NOI upside_2027q4_noi_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 28.0% ratio | assumption: Desk lease-commencement phasing; shares sum to one within each calendar year. |
| HPC property NOI upside_2027q4_hpc_noi | 2027Q4 / upside | 197.84 USD_millions | derived: Annual NOI scenario times quarterly allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_2027_noi, upside_2027q4_noi_weight). |
| NOI / HPC revenue assumption upside_2027q4_property_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 92.0% ratio | assumption: Assumed property cash margin; not disclosed contract pricing or GAAP margin. |
| Implied HPC revenue upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 215.05 USD_millions | derived: NOI divided by assumed property margin; gross-revenue proxy. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_hpc_noi, upside_2027q4_property_margin). |
| Mining revenue / Q2 baseline upside_2027q4_mining_factor | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk Bitcoin price, hashprice and remaining mining-capacity sensitivity; no unsigned HPC reuse. |
| Mining revenue upside_2027q4_mining | 2027Q4 / upside | 24.84 USD_millions | derived: Reported Q2 revenue times desk mining factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q4_mining_factor). |
| Total revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 239.88 USD_millions | derived: HPC revenue proxy plus mining revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q4_mining). |
| Mining cash contribution margin upside_2027q4_mining_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk cash margin before corporate overhead and financing; not GAAP segment profit. |
| Mining cash contribution upside_2027q4_mining_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 9.93 USD_millions | derived: Modeled mining cash economics assuming production monetized in the quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mining, upside_2027q4_mining_margin). |
| HPC and mining cash contribution upside_2027q4_property_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 207.78 USD_millions | derived: Property cash contribution before corporate and financing costs. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_hpc_noi, upside_2027q4_mining_cash). |
| Cash corporate overhead upside_2027q4_corp | 2027Q4 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk recurring cash overhead; excludes noncash stock compensation and valuation changes. |
| Other net operating cash uses upside_2027q4_other | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net tax, working-capital and interest-income allowance; positive is a cash use. |
| Corporate, coupon and other cash uses upside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 103.40 USD_millions | derived: Debt principal, restricted reserves and new financing excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_corp, quarter_coupon, upside_2027q4_other). |
| Cash before capex proxy upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 104.38 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash economics including mining monetization; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_property_cash, upside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash construction capex upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk remaining project-spend timing; not company guidance. Downside includes delay/overrun costs. |
| Cash after capex proxy upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.38 USD_millions | derived: Pre-financing, before debt principal, acquisitions and project reserve movements. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 229.99 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| FY2026 HPC property NOI ($M) upside_fy2026_hpc_noi | FY2026 / upside | 101.85 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_noi, upside_2026q3_hpc_noi, upside_2026q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_before_capex | FY2026 / upside | -109.68 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 2,064.26 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_capex | FY2026 / upside | -2,173.94 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex). |
| FY2027 Revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 874.82 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| FY2027 HPC property NOI ($M) upside_fy2027_hpc_noi | FY2027 / upside | 706.58 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_noi, upside_2027q2_hpc_noi, upside_2027q3_hpc_noi, upside_2027q4_hpc_noi). |
| FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_before_capex | FY2027 / upside | 335.70 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 800.00 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_capex | FY2027 / upside | -464.30 USD_millions | derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex). |
Model boundaries
- An initial operating model, without a reconciled balance sheet, diluted EPS or equity valuation.
- HPC NOI is a company non-GAAP property measure. Converting NOI to revenue requires an assumed property margin; lease-accounting revenue, escalators and reimbursements are not reconstructed.
- Coupon expense is spread evenly for economic comparison. Actual payment dates, interest income, debt amortization, reserves and restricted-project cash waterfalls are not fully modeled.
- Cash after capex excludes acquisitions, asset-sale proceeds, new financing and principal repayments. It is not parent cash available to shareholders.
- Pipeline power, the Apollo option and unsigned Odessa HPC reuse generate no forecast rent. Historical SEC gross-profit and debt mappings are incomplete.
From contracted HPC capacity to cash retained
How much of the contracted property NOI survives construction spending and financing?
The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately.
The competing explanation
Contracted demand and tenant credit support reduce demand uncertainty but do not eliminate construction execution, payment conditions or parent financing risk. Power options and land can remain uneconomic if incremental funding costs or build costs exceed the eventual lease return.
Risks to track
- Delayed acceptance shifts rent while debt costs continue.
- Restricted project cash cannot be treated as free parent liquidity.
- Property NOI omits overhead, debt service and ongoing capital needs.
- Mining cash depends on Bitcoin prices, difficulty and power costs.
- Future projects can require new equity or debt; no dilution forecast is complete.
Next checkpoints
- Barber Lake rent commencement · October 2026 company target (estimated). Confirm tenant acceptance, first billed rent and any remaining delivery obligations.
- Stingray delivery · First half of 2027 company target (estimated). Track construction cash used and contracted delivery conditions.
- Next quarterly cash reconciliation · Next results; date unconfirmed (estimated). Separate unrestricted cash, restricted balances, project capex and principal repayments.
Data coverage and open work
- An initial operating model, without a reconciled balance sheet, diluted EPS or equity valuation.
- HPC NOI is a company non-GAAP property measure. Converting NOI to revenue requires an assumed property margin; lease-accounting revenue, escalators and reimbursements are not reconstructed.
- Coupon expense is spread evenly for economic comparison. Actual payment dates, interest income, debt amortization, reserves and restricted-project cash waterfalls are not fully modeled.
- Cash after capex excludes acquisitions, asset-sale proceeds, new financing and principal repayments. It is not parent cash available to shareholders.
- Pipeline power, the Apollo option and unsigned Odessa HPC reuse generate no forecast rent. Historical SEC gross-profit and debt mappings are incomplete.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed strong, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -3.1 | +0.0 | +2.7 | 52% |
| 5 sessions | -6.0 | -0.2 | +5.9 | 47% |
| 10 sessions | -10.3 | +0.1 | +6.8 | 51% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.