What changed: r10 to r11
September 28 review: recorded the September 24 Barber Lake lease amendment (phased delivery Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, rent from Q4 2026) and the binding ten-year follow-on tenant commitment as checkpoints, with a limitation that the amended schedule, the $5.2B contracted figure and the cost-sharing threshold are not yet in the cells. No forecast cell changed.
Retrieval clocks and internal hashes are excluded. Changed source or accounting definitions are not automatically an economic restatement. The authored reason describes the destination revision.
| Field | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| /memory/as_of | 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-28 |
| /memory/bands/10d/n | 300 | 290 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p10 | -8.552 | -16.833 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p50 | -1.16 | -0.954 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p90 | 6.586 | 17.042 |
| /memory/bands/10d/p_up | 0.41 | 0.448 |
| /memory/bands/126d/n | 281 | 134 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p10 | -30.222 | -68.822 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p50 | 0.129 | -15.948 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p90 | 26.627 | 70.192 |
| /memory/bands/126d/p_up | 0.509 | 0.373 |
| /memory/bands/1d/n | 300 | 290 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p10 | -2.635 | -5.302 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p50 | -0.063 | 0.0 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p90 | 2.0 | 5.194 |
| /memory/bands/1d/p_up | 0.487 | 0.5 |
| /memory/bands/21d/n | 298 | 149 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p10 | -13.55 | -20.042 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p50 | -1.76 | -0.653 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p90 | 10.861 | 17.825 |
| /memory/bands/21d/p_up | 0.413 | 0.477 |
| /memory/bands/252d/censored | 0 | 2 |
| /memory/bands/252d/n | 249 | 94 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p10 | -39.045 | -78.512 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p50 | 0.648 | -12.955 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p90 | 58.991 | 68.925 |
| /memory/bands/252d/p_up | 0.502 | 0.351 |
| /memory/bands/5d/n | 300 | 290 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p10 | -6.445 | -9.89 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p50 | -0.839 | 0.11 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p90 | 4.554 | 10.717 |
| /memory/bands/5d/p_up | 0.41 | 0.517 |
| /memory/bands/63d/n | 294 | 142 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p10 | -23.281 | -50.351 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p50 | -1.162 | -6.119 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p90 | 21.523 | 41.657 |
| /memory/bands/63d/p_up | 0.473 | 0.359 |
| /memory/state | up/below/off/stuck/ordinary/weak/alone | up/below/off/stuck/quiet/weak/some |
| /meta/as_of | 2026-09-26 | 2026-09-28 |
| /meta/research_reviewed_at | 2026-09-20 | 2026-09-28 |
| /meta/revision | 10 | 11 |
| /research/change_note | Added conditional funding/restricted-cash roll-forwards, scheduled principal and dated ownership claims. Corrected the $172.5M convertible label to its 2030 maturity. Existing operating forecasts stay unchanged; parent cash, contingent warrant settlements and future financing remain qualified. | September 28 review: recorded the September 24 Barber Lake lease amendment (phased delivery Q4 2026 through Q1 2027, rent from Q4 2026) and the binding ten-year follow-on tenant commitment as checkpoints, with a limitation that the amended schedule, the $5.2B contracted figure and the cost-sharing threshold are not yet in the cells. No forecast cell changed. |
| /research/checkpoints/0/event | Barber Lake rent commencement | Barber Lake rent commencement and follow-on tenant |
| /research/checkpoints/0/timing | October 2026 company target | Rent from Q4 2026 under the September 24 amendment; phased delivery Q4 2026 through Q1 2027; ten-year extension after the amended Fluidstack term |
| /research/checkpoints/0/watch | Confirm tenant acceptance, first billed rent and any remaining delivery obligations. | Confirm tenant acceptance, first billed rent and remaining delivery obligations under the amended phases, and obtain the amended rent schedule before changing the original lease cells. For the follow-on commitment, identify the tenant, the executed lease and its rent, any conditions on the $5.2B incremental contracted revenue, and construction cost against the $359.3M threshold with 50% tenant reimbursement above it. Contracted term is not delivered capacity. |
| /research/economics | The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately. September developments concern future power access and spending: conditional grid classifications and gas laterals do not establish new rent or tenant acceptance. The existing contracted-project scenarios remain the numerical base. | The August update says Black Pearl began delivery and rent earlier than planned, while Barber Lake targets initial September delivery and October rent. The three contracted projects total 700 MW gross, not 700 MW already earning rent. The 10-Q reports $831.8M unrestricted cash and $3,728.0M restricted cash at June 30 against about $6,015.5M debt principal. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $152.0M; adding $123.4M of Bitcoin sales classified as investing still leaves negative $992.8M after $964.3M cash PP&E. Contracted NOI is therefore the starting point of the cash bridge. The model exposes delivery, property margin, mining, corporate cost, coupons and construction spending separately. September developments concern future power access and spending: conditional grid classifications and gas laterals do not establish new rent or tenant acceptance. The existing contracted-project scenarios remain the numerical base. On September 24 (filed September 25) Cipher amended the Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake and secured a binding commitment for a ten-year extension lease with an AI lab, extending the aggregate contracted term for the facility to twenty years, with modified phased delivery in Q4 2026 through Q1 2027 and rent commencement starting in Q4 2026. The company puts incremental contracted revenue from the extension at $5.2B over its term, and the amendment sets a $359.3M cost threshold above which the tenant reimburses 50% of overages. Contracted term and reimbursement rights are not delivered capacity or received rent; the model's Barber Lake cells still follow the original lease schedule until the amended rent schedule is disclosed. |
| /research/limitations/6 | None | The September 24 Barber Lake amendment and the binding ten-year follow-on commitment (aggregate contracted term twenty years, $5.2B incremental contracted revenue stated by the company, $359.3M cost threshold with 50% tenant reimbursement above it) are disclosed but not yet in the operating-model cells. Barber Lake rent, delivery timing and construction cash remain at the September 20 calibration on the original lease schedule; the extension's rent begins after the amended Fluidstack term and is not near-term cash. |
| /research/reviewed_at | 2026-09-20 | 2026-09-28 |
| /sources/7/retrieved | None | 2026-09-28 |
| /sources/7/title | None | September 25 Form 8-K: Barber Lake lease amendment and binding follow-on tenant commitment |
| /sources/7/url | None | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819989/000181998926000043/cifr-20260924.htm |
| /thesis/what_changes_it | Track actual rent commencement, construction cash spending and the unrestricted-cash balance. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI matching the schedule strengthen it. Also verify the grid audit, firm versus controllable power rights, and incremental gas-lateral cash obligations. Reconcile project restricted-fund releases with eligible construction, principal repayments and any Google warrant protection settlement before interpreting property NOI as owner cash. | Track rent commencement, construction cash and unrestricted cash. Delay at Barber Lake or Stingray, weaker mining economics or capex overruns weaken the case; accepted capacity and NOI on schedule strengthen it. Verify the grid audit, power rights and gas-lateral cash obligations. Reconcile restricted-fund releases with construction, principal and any Google warrant settlement before reading NOI as owner cash. The September 24 amendment moves Barber Lake rent to Q4 2026 and adds a ten-year follow-on lease; verify the amended rent schedule before changing lease cells. |