$FSLR closed at a new low. July's quarter is still the number.
Graham McCain · Alphaforge Research · Published Sep 25, 2026 · 8:50 am ET · Revision 1 Scored over 5 trading sessions.
AI summary
First Solar closed at $172.16, a new low that is 46.4% under its June high. The note views this as a significant decline within an ongoing downtrend, but not a new operational signal from the company. The key figures are Thursday's 10.3% drop and a five-session excess band with a middle point of +0.6%.
Historical comparisons for similar sessions show a five-session range of -5.4% to +7.9%. The strongest contrary reading is that if Friday's trading is quiet, the company's last financial results from July 30 and its September 15 procedural release remain the official record. The immediate checkpoint is the market close on September 25.
Two paragraphs generated from the note. The authored note below is the record. Numbers only, no side.
1. The state
As of the 2026-09-24 close. Session 1 has closed.
Thursday's close was $172.16, down 10.3% from $191.97, and 46.4% under the June 3 high of $320.95. June 5 fell 11.4% to $279.01, and September 16 closed at $191.07. Thursday finished in the bottom tenth of the day's range, on 3.04 times recent volume, with $1.09 billion traded.
2. What's new
The last company release on the 2026 news index is September 15.
3. What that does to the state
Thursday adds no company number to the July 30 quarter.
300 similar days · 219 stocks · 216 sessions · 1h band
Vs the market, in points
Low
Middle
High
Share up
1 session
-3.1
+0.3
+3.4
55%
5 sessions
-5.4
+0.6
+7.9
56%
10 sessions
-9.0
+0.1
+8.7
51%
The band is the prior close's neighborhood — what followed similar states as of the cutoff.
4. Same state, or a new one
Stayed in yesterday's neighborhood
Session 1 vs the market: +2.7. Prior-state 1-session range: -3.1 / +0.3 / +3.4.
A completed Friday close outside the 5-session band, or a First Solar filing that changes the $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion sales guide or the 45.1 gigawatt backlog, would make Thursday a new operating print.
Session 1: +2.7 vs band -3.1/+0.3/+3.4, stayed in range. Session 5: 2026-10-01. Scorecard
When we look again
Session 1 is the September 25 close. Five and ten sessions are counted from Thursday. No next results date was on the news index this morning. The last results are July 30, and the last company release is September 15.
Thursday's close was $172.16. That is 46.4% under the 52-week high of $320.95, set on June 3. The first break was June 5, down 11.4% to $279.01. September 16 closed at $191.07. Thursday went through that level, down 10.3% from a $191.97 prior close, and finished in the bottom tenth of the day's range. Volume was 3.04 times the recent norm. About $1.09 billion traded. The company was worth $18.5 billion at the close.
The last operating print is July 30. Second-quarter sales were $1.06 billion, down 4% from a year earlier. Diluted earnings were $3.92 a share, up 23%. The company reaffirmed 2026 net sales of $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion and a contracted backlog of 45.1 gigawatts as of June 30. On September 15 it said it would withdraw a Section 337 complaint at the trade commission and keep district-court patent cases. That release names no settlement and does not change the guide.
No September 24 item was on the company's 2026 news index this morning. Financial-press accounts blamed borrowing costs and lower price targets. Those notes were not opened here, and they are not a booking figure from the company. Thursday is a new low inside a decline that started in June. It is not a new First Solar number. The 5-session excess band on this close has a middle of +0.6%.
Other reading, tape, and sources
The other reading
A 46% drawdown from the June high, with the close in the bottom tenth of a heavy-volume day, can be the market marking a bookings problem the July guide has not admitted. If Friday is quiet, July 30 and the September 15 procedural release remain the company record.
What would change this
A completed Friday close outside the 5-session band, or a First Solar filing that changes the $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion sales guide or the 45.1 gigawatt backlog, would make Thursday a new operating print. An unopened target cut would not.
The tape
Thursday's close was $172.16, down 10.3% from $191.97, and 46.4% under the June 3 high of $320.95. June 5 fell 11.4% to $279.01, and September 16 closed at $191.07. Thursday finished in the bottom tenth of the day's range, on 3.04 times recent volume, with $1.09 billion traded.
What was filed
The last company release on the 2026 news index is September 15. First Solar said it would withdraw its Section 337 complaint and keep district-court cases against affiliates of Canadian Solar, Jinko Solar, T1 Energy, and Trina Solar. No settlement dollars are in that release. July 30 results were sales of $1.06 billion and diluted earnings of $3.92 a share, with 2026 guidance reaffirmed. No September 24 release was on that index. The SEC 8-K list did not load this morning.
The numbers around the move
Thursday adds no company number to the July 30 quarter. The 5-session excess band is -5.4 / +0.6 / +7.9. A Friday close inside that band leaves Thursday's low as the neighborhood.
What the stock did
Thursday's close is the session: $172.16, down 10.3%, on 3.04 times recent volume, near the low of the day. Friday's close is not in. That close is the test of whether the tape leaves this neighborhood.
The comparison
Five-session excess -5.4 / +0.6 / +7.9 across 300 analogs on the 1-hour scale. One session -3.1 / +0.3 / +3.4. Ten sessions -9.0 / +0.1 / +8.7. The comparisons are state and shape, not a forecast, and they imply no side.
Sources
Thursday's tape and band are the September 24 state packet. The quarter and the reaffirmed guide are the company's July 30 results page. The September 15 intellectual-property release is the company's own news item, and it is the latest 2026 item on that index. No September 24 company release was listed. The SEC 8-K browser did not load this morning, so no Thursday filing is claimed or denied from EDGAR.
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Publication history
Revision 1 · Sep 25, 2026 · 8:50 am ET · Initial publication
Drafted with AI assistance from the state packet and First Solar's own results page and September 15 release. A person checked the numbers against those pages.
