ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$WULF

TERAWULF INC. · Nasdaq · SIC 6199 · CIK 1083301 · revision 9 as of 2026-09-26

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Research status

Evidence awaiting review · 234 pending evidence leads

Financial accounts through
2026-06-30
Authored update
2026-09-20
Source scan
Full model review
Latest event review
Oldest pending lead
Open evidence leads
  • 8-K filed 2026-10-05
  • Bloomberg warns AI slowdown threatens $33T in stock gains - Crypto Briefing
  • Rothschild Redburn initiates TeraWulf at Neutral with $15 price target - Crypto Briefing
  • Bitcoin News | Bitcoin Hashrate Turns Higher as Price Clears $85,000 - Binance
  • Before you say yes to a data center, listen to this advice from coal country - Kentucky Lantern

Leads require verification; they are not established material changes.

A published model and a successful scan do not establish a completed review. Status describes current monitoring; every promotion requires fresh checks.

Research status JSON

Business

TeraWulf develops power-connected data centers and is transitioning Lake Mariner from Bitcoin mining to long-term HPC hosting. New projects expand the contracted footprint, but utility power approval, construction completion, delivered IT capacity and rent commencement occur at different times. The near-term model is driven by Lake Mariner commissioning and the later Justified campus ramp.

Three drivers

  1. Average critical IT MW accepted by paying tenants
  2. Rental revenue and site cash margins during the ramp
  3. Construction commitments, financing and retained cash

Thesis

Our view

The transition is already visible in revenue: HPC contributed $31.9M of $44.8M Q2 revenue. The next question is how the 102 MW delivered after CB3 becomes 438 MW at Lake Mariner and how much funding is consumed before the 401 MW Justified project produces rent. A power agreement improves project readiness but does not equal rent-producing capacity. Our scenarios connect delivery timing to rental income, site cash margins and construction spending.

What changes it

Accepted critical IT MW, initial rent and cash capex are the deciding evidence. Delayed CB4/CB5 delivery, weaker initial rent realization or a more expensive funding mix weaken the case; predictable commissioning and cash conversion strengthen it. Check parent cash after completion support, note amortization and outside-owner claims; reconcile collection of the July 6 effective Abernathy sale installments, separately from the sale date.

Scenario ranges

Named downside/base/upside operating assumptions; not probabilities, price targets or the short-horizon market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)27.1135.0†234.4347.6450.6135.8†234.0344.84
Gross profit ($M)10.859.3†67.0722.0829.058.1†620.478.98
Operating income ($M)-15.79-51.4†10-59.611-15.612-24.79-86.3†10-162.111-140.412
Net income ($M)-22.713-29.2†14-61.415-18.416-455.113-126.6†14-427.615-939.916
EPS, diluted ($)-0.0617—-0.1618-0.0519-1.1317—-1.0118-1.9419
Diluted shares (M)382.120—383.121386.922401.620—423.021485.722
Cash ($M)23.923274.124218.22590.026711.3273,266.4282,630.0292,619.228
Long-term debt ($M)0.0300.031———3,052.2323,060.232—
Cash from operations ($M)-20.9†33-42.7†3456.535-54.8†36-36.7†33-88.2†34-17.635-136.7†36
Capex ($M)20.7†37153.6†3893.739119.9†40231.6†37615.0†38523.039855.6†40
Free cash flow ($M)-41.7†41-196.4†42-37.2†43-174.8†44-268.3†41-703.2†42-540.5†43-992.3†44

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q372.8—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4120.3—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1172.7—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2210.1—2026-09-20Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Delivered IT capacity, rental economics and build funding

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-20 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Model Lake Mariner and Justified separately using average rent-producing critical IT MW in each quarter. Lake Mariner uses an explicit assumed annual rent per MW. Justified starts with disclosed base contract value divided by its 20-year term and scales by active capacity, with a haircut for early-year rent versus lifetime average. Add mining, then deduct cash site costs, overhead, net interest and other cash uses. FY2026 includes reported H1; FY2027 is a desk extension. A separate funding roll-forward reconciles June unrestricted cash, operating cash after capex, restricted releases, dated net financing and principal/other cash uses. Annual funding balances use Q4 stocks. Negative values show unfilled financing needs, not feasible negative cash accounts.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Lake Mariner critical IT MW after CB3Disclosed capacity102.00reported. Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Source · 2026-08-05
Lake Mariner full contracted critical IT MWDisclosed capacity438.00reported. Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Source · 2026-08-05
Justified contracted critical IT MWDisclosed capacity401.00reported. Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Source · 2026-08-05
Justified base contract revenue20-year term19,000.00reported. Approximately $19B base contract value; extensions are excluded. Source · 2026-08-05
June unrestricted cash2026Q22,619.19reported. 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05
June total restricted cash2026Q2409.42derived. Current and noncurrent restricted balances; not unrestricted parent cash.
H1 cash after PP&E and depositsH1 2026-1,508.17derived. Excludes $231.350M asset acquisitions and financing cash flows.
June aggregate debt principal2026Q25,725.00reported. 10-Q principal maturity total, distinct from carrying values and derivative liabilities. Source · 2026-08-05
Scheduled principal: 2027FY2027222.89reported. 10-Q debt maturity table; modeled half in each April/October payment quarter. Source · 2026-08-05
June common shares outstanding2026Q2498.93reported. Balance-sheet outstanding shares, not issued shares or quarterly weighted-average EPS shares. Source · 2026-08-05
June common stock warrants2026Q277.70reported. 10-Q EPS note; weighted-average strike $0.10. Includes warrants already listed in that note; do not add Google again. Source · 2026-08-05
Justified outside equity interest2026Q26.8%reported. Seller retained a 6.8% minority equity interest in the Justified development entity. Consolidated revenue is not automatically parent cash. Source · 2026-08-05
Effective July 6 sale: total considerationJuly 6 effective sale530.00reported. 10-Q Note 11: sale effective July 6, 2026; ownership disposed. Approximately $530M payable in three installments, not one closing cash payment. Source · 2026-08-05

Downside scenario

PeriodCash construction capex ($M)Revenue ($M)HPC revenue ($M)Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)Cash after capex proxy ($M)Cash before capex proxy ($M)Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
2026Q3800.0053.6642.751,833.79-907.90-107.90409.42
2026Q4850.0084.8476.50952.87-940.58-90.57409.42
2027Q11,000.00118.92112.50-110.26-1,063.12-63.12409.42
2027Q21,100.00139.49135.00-1,302.00-1,144.00-44.00409.42
FY20263,028.51217.28172.20952.87-3,356.65-328.13409.42
FY20274,250.00604.26589.50-3,608.25-4,401.93-151.93409.42

Base scenario

PeriodCash construction capex ($M)Revenue ($M)HPC revenue ($M)Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)Cash after capex proxy ($M)Cash before capex proxy ($M)Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
2026Q3700.0072.8460.002,090.97-773.22-73.22409.42
2026Q4700.00120.27110.001,489.15-734.97-34.97409.42
2027Q1800.00172.70165.00697.92-791.238.77409.42
2027Q2900.00210.13205.00-139.36-853.2446.76409.42
FY20262,778.51271.88222.951,489.15-3,016.36-237.85409.42
FY20273,600.00886.38868.41-1,991.48-3,385.14214.86409.42

Upside scenario

PeriodCash construction capex ($M)Revenue ($M)HPC revenue ($M)Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)Cash after capex proxy ($M)Cash before capex proxy ($M)Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
2026Q3650.0097.2682.502,170.77-693.42-43.42409.42
2026Q4650.00166.19154.001,664.16-639.7610.24409.42
2027Q1750.00218.63209.00972.83-691.3258.68409.42
2027Q2850.00247.32240.90232.79-756.0094.00409.42
FY20262,678.51342.23289.451,664.16-2,841.36-162.84409.42
FY20273,350.001,092.751,070.29-1,331.06-2,899.72450.28409.42
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
One quarter of a year
quarter
Model / shared25.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic time conversion.
Average divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
H1 consolidated revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared78.78
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 HPC revenue
h1_hpc_revenue
H1 2026 / shared52.95
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 GAAP operating cash flow
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared-154.30
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 Bitcoin sale proceeds, investing
h1_btc_sales
H1 2026 / shared24.64
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 PP&E purchases and deposits
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared1,378.51
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June unrestricted cash
h1_cash
2026Q2 / shared2,619.19
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June current restricted cash
h1_restricted_current
2026Q2 / shared142.94
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June noncurrent restricted cash
h1_restricted_noncurrent
2026Q2 / shared266.48
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Q2 mining revenue
h1_q2_mining
2026Q2 / shared12.84
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
H1 cash interest paid
h1_cash_interest
H1 2026 / shared131.07
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q reported amount converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June total restricted cash
h1_restricted_cash
2026Q2 / shared409.42
USD_millions
derived: Current and noncurrent restricted balances; not unrestricted parent cash. Formula: sum(h1_restricted_current, h1_restricted_noncurrent).
H1 operating cash plus Bitcoin proceeds
h1_cash_before_capex
H1 2026 / shared-129.66
USD_millions
derived: Bitcoin-sale proceeds are classified in investing, so this is not GAAP CFO. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, h1_btc_sales).
H1 cash after PP&E and deposits
h1_cash_after_capex
H1 2026 / shared-1,508.17
USD_millions
derived: Excludes $231.350M asset acquisitions and financing cash flows. Formula: subtract(h1_cash_before_capex, h1_capex).
Lake Mariner critical IT MW at June 30
lake_june
Disclosed capacity / shared81.00
MW
reported: Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Lake Mariner critical IT MW after CB3
lake_july
Disclosed capacity / shared102.00
MW
reported: Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Lake Mariner full contracted critical IT MW
lake_full
Disclosed capacity / shared438.00
MW
reported: Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Justified contracted critical IT MW
justified_full
Disclosed capacity / shared401.00
MW
reported: Critical IT capacity; only delivered and rent-producing capacity generates modeled revenue. Primary source · 2026-08-05
One MW normalization
one_mw
Model / shared1.00
MW
assumption: Arithmetic unit normalization; not additional capacity.
Justified base contract revenue
justified_contract
20-year term / shared19,000.00
USD_millions
reported: Approximately $19B base contract value; extensions are excluded. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Justified base contract years
justified_term
Contract / shared2,000.0%
ratio
reported: Disclosed base term; used only to compute a lifetime average. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Justified lifetime-average annual revenue
justified_annual_average
Annual / shared950.00
USD_millions
derived: Base contract value divided by years; NOT first-year contractual rent. Formula: divide(justified_contract, justified_term).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2026q3_lake_mw
2026Q3 / downside95.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2026q3_lake_units
2026Q3 / downside9,500.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2026q3_rent_per_mw
2026Q3 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2026q3_lake_revenue
2026Q3 / downside42.75
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_lake_units, downside_2026q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2026q3_justified_mw
2026Q3 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2026q3_justified_fraction
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2026q3_justified_realization
2026Q3 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2026q3_justified_revenue
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2026q3_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2026q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue
2026Q3 / downside42.75
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_lake_revenue, downside_2026q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2026q3_mining_factor
2026Q3 / downside85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2026q3_mining
2026Q3 / downside10.91
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2026q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside53.66
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2026q3_hpc_margin
2026Q3 / downside40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2026q3_hpc_cash
2026Q3 / downside17.10
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2026q3_mining_margin
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2026q3_mining_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mining, downside_2026q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2026q3_site_cash
2026Q3 / downside17.10
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_hpc_cash, downside_2026q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2026q3_corp
2026Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2026q3_interest
2026Q3 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2026q3_other
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2026q3_uses
2026Q3 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_corp, downside_2026q3_interest, downside_2026q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex
2026Q3 / downside-107.90
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_site_cash, downside_2026q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / downside-907.90
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2026q4_lake_mw
2026Q4 / downside170.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2026q4_lake_units
2026Q4 / downside17,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2026q4_rent_per_mw
2026Q4 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2026q4_lake_revenue
2026Q4 / downside76.50
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_lake_units, downside_2026q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2026q4_justified_mw
2026Q4 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2026q4_justified_fraction
2026Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2026q4_justified_realization
2026Q4 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2026q4_justified_revenue
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2026q4_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2026q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue
2026Q4 / downside76.50
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_lake_revenue, downside_2026q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2026q4_mining_factor
2026Q4 / downside65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2026q4_mining
2026Q4 / downside8.34
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2026q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside84.84
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2026q4_hpc_margin
2026Q4 / downside45.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2026q4_hpc_cash
2026Q4 / downside34.43
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2026q4_mining_margin
2026Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2026q4_mining_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mining, downside_2026q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2026q4_site_cash
2026Q4 / downside34.43
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_hpc_cash, downside_2026q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2026q4_corp
2026Q4 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2026q4_interest
2026Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2026q4_other
2026Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2026q4_uses
2026Q4 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_corp, downside_2026q4_interest, downside_2026q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex
2026Q4 / downside-90.57
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_site_cash, downside_2026q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside850.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / downside-940.58
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2027q1_lake_mw
2027Q1 / downside250.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2027q1_lake_units
2027Q1 / downside25,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2027q1_rent_per_mw
2027Q1 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2027q1_lake_revenue
2027Q1 / downside112.50
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_lake_units, downside_2027q1_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2027q1_justified_mw
2027Q1 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2027q1_justified_fraction
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2027q1_justified_realization
2027Q1 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2027q1_justified_revenue
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2027q1_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2027q1_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue
2027Q1 / downside112.50
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_lake_revenue, downside_2027q1_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2027q1_mining_factor
2027Q1 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2027q1_mining
2027Q1 / downside6.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q1_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside118.92
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q1_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2027q1_hpc_margin
2027Q1 / downside55.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2027q1_hpc_cash
2027Q1 / downside61.88
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q1_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2027q1_mining_margin
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2027q1_mining_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mining, downside_2027q1_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2027q1_site_cash
2027Q1 / downside61.88
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_cash, downside_2027q1_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2027q1_corp
2027Q1 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2027q1_other
2027Q1 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2027q1_uses
2027Q1 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_corp, downside_2027q1_interest, downside_2027q1_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex
2027Q1 / downside-63.12
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_site_cash, downside_2027q1_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside1,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / downside-1,063.12
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q1_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2027q2_lake_mw
2027Q2 / downside300.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2027q2_lake_units
2027Q2 / downside30,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2027q2_rent_per_mw
2027Q2 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2027q2_lake_revenue
2027Q2 / downside135.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_lake_units, downside_2027q2_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2027q2_justified_mw
2027Q2 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2027q2_justified_fraction
2027Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2027q2_justified_realization
2027Q2 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2027q2_justified_revenue
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2027q2_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2027q2_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue
2027Q2 / downside135.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_lake_revenue, downside_2027q2_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2027q2_mining_factor
2027Q2 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2027q2_mining
2027Q2 / downside4.49
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q2_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside139.49
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q2_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2027q2_hpc_margin
2027Q2 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2027q2_hpc_cash
2027Q2 / downside81.00
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q2_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2027q2_mining_margin
2027Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2027q2_mining_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mining, downside_2027q2_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2027q2_site_cash
2027Q2 / downside81.00
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_hpc_cash, downside_2027q2_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2027q2_corp
2027Q2 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2027q2_uses
2027Q2 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_corp, downside_2027q2_interest, downside_2027q2_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex
2027Q2 / downside-44.00
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_site_cash, downside_2027q2_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside1,100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / downside-1,144.00
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q2_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2027q3_lake_mw
2027Q3 / downside360.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2027q3_lake_units
2027Q3 / downside36,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2027q3_rent_per_mw
2027Q3 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2027q3_lake_revenue
2027Q3 / downside162.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_lake_units, downside_2027q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2027q3_justified_mw
2027Q3 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2027q3_justified_fraction
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2027q3_justified_realization
2027Q3 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2027q3_justified_revenue
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2027q3_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2027q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue
2027Q3 / downside162.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_lake_revenue, downside_2027q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2027q3_mining_factor
2027Q3 / downside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2027q3_mining
2027Q3 / downside2.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside164.57
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2027q3_hpc_margin
2027Q3 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2027q3_hpc_cash
2027Q3 / downside97.20
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2027q3_mining_margin
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2027q3_mining_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mining, downside_2027q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2027q3_site_cash
2027Q3 / downside97.20
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_hpc_cash, downside_2027q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2027q3_corp
2027Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2027q3_uses
2027Q3 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_corp, downside_2027q3_interest, downside_2027q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex
2027Q3 / downside-27.80
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_site_cash, downside_2027q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside1,150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / downside-1,177.80
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
downside_2027q4_lake_mw
2027Q4 / downside400.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
downside_2027q4_lake_units
2027Q4 / downside40,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
downside_2027q4_rent_per_mw
2027Q4 / downside1.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
downside_2027q4_lake_revenue
2027Q4 / downside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_lake_units, downside_2027q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
downside_2027q4_justified_mw
2027Q4 / downside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
downside_2027q4_justified_fraction
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
downside_2027q4_justified_realization
2027Q4 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
downside_2027q4_justified_revenue
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, downside_2027q4_justified_fraction, quarter, downside_2027q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue
2027Q4 / downside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_lake_revenue, downside_2027q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
downside_2027q4_mining_factor
2027Q4 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
downside_2027q4_mining
2027Q4 / downside1.28
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, downside_2027q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside181.28
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
downside_2027q4_hpc_margin
2027Q4 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
downside_2027q4_hpc_cash
2027Q4 / downside108.00
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
downside_2027q4_mining_margin
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
downside_2027q4_mining_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mining, downside_2027q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
downside_2027q4_site_cash
2027Q4 / downside108.00
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_hpc_cash, downside_2027q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
downside_2027q4_corp
2027Q4 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
downside_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
downside_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
downside_2027q4_uses
2027Q4 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_corp, downside_2027q4_interest, downside_2027q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex
2027Q4 / downside-17.00
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_site_cash, downside_2027q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside1,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / downside-1,017.00
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside217.28
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 HPC revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_hpc_revenue
FY2026 / downside172.20
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2026q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_before_capex
FY2026 / downside-328.13
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside3,028.51
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / downside-3,356.65
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
FY2027 Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside604.26
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 HPC revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_hpc_revenue
FY2027 / downside589.50
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, downside_2027q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_before_capex
FY2027 / downside-151.93
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside4,250.00
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / downside-4,401.93
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2026q3_lake_mw
2026Q3 / base120.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2026q3_lake_units
2026Q3 / base12,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2026q3_rent_per_mw
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2026q3_lake_revenue
2026Q3 / base60.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_lake_units, base_2026q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2026q3_justified_mw
2026Q3 / base0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2026q3_justified_fraction
2026Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2026q3_justified_realization
2026Q3 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2026q3_justified_revenue
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2026q3_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2026q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2026q3_hpc_revenue
2026Q3 / base60.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_lake_revenue, base_2026q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2026q3_mining_factor
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2026q3_mining
2026Q3 / base12.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2026q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base72.84
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_hpc_revenue, base_2026q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2026q3_hpc_margin
2026Q3 / base55.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2026q3_hpc_cash
2026Q3 / base33.00
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_hpc_revenue, base_2026q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2026q3_mining_margin
2026Q3 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2026q3_mining_cash
2026Q3 / base1.28
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mining, base_2026q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2026q3_site_cash
2026Q3 / base34.28
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_hpc_cash, base_2026q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2026q3_corp
2026Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2026q3_interest
2026Q3 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2026q3_other
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2026q3_uses
2026Q3 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_corp, base_2026q3_interest, base_2026q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2026q3_cash_before_capex
2026Q3 / base-73.22
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_site_cash, base_2026q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base700.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / base-773.22
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_capex, base_2026q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2026q4_lake_mw
2026Q4 / base220.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2026q4_lake_units
2026Q4 / base22,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2026q4_rent_per_mw
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2026q4_lake_revenue
2026Q4 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_lake_units, base_2026q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2026q4_justified_mw
2026Q4 / base0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2026q4_justified_fraction
2026Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2026q4_justified_realization
2026Q4 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2026q4_justified_revenue
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2026q4_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2026q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2026q4_hpc_revenue
2026Q4 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_lake_revenue, base_2026q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2026q4_mining_factor
2026Q4 / base80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2026q4_mining
2026Q4 / base10.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2026q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base120.27
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_hpc_revenue, base_2026q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2026q4_hpc_margin
2026Q4 / base65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2026q4_hpc_cash
2026Q4 / base71.50
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_hpc_revenue, base_2026q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2026q4_mining_margin
2026Q4 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2026q4_mining_cash
2026Q4 / base1.03
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mining, base_2026q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2026q4_site_cash
2026Q4 / base72.53
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_hpc_cash, base_2026q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2026q4_corp
2026Q4 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2026q4_interest
2026Q4 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2026q4_other
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2026q4_uses
2026Q4 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_corp, base_2026q4_interest, base_2026q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2026q4_cash_before_capex
2026Q4 / base-34.97
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_site_cash, base_2026q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base700.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / base-734.97
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2027q1_lake_mw
2027Q1 / base330.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2027q1_lake_units
2027Q1 / base33,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2027q1_rent_per_mw
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2027q1_lake_revenue
2027Q1 / base165.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_lake_units, base_2027q1_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2027q1_justified_mw
2027Q1 / base0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2027q1_justified_fraction
2027Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2027q1_justified_realization
2027Q1 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2027q1_justified_revenue
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2027q1_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2027q1_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2027q1_hpc_revenue
2027Q1 / base165.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_lake_revenue, base_2027q1_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2027q1_mining_factor
2027Q1 / base60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2027q1_mining
2027Q1 / base7.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q1_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base172.70
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_revenue, base_2027q1_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2027q1_hpc_margin
2027Q1 / base70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2027q1_hpc_cash
2027Q1 / base115.50
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_hpc_revenue, base_2027q1_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2027q1_mining_margin
2027Q1 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2027q1_mining_cash
2027Q1 / base0.77
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mining, base_2027q1_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2027q1_site_cash
2027Q1 / base116.27
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_cash, base_2027q1_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2027q1_corp
2027Q1 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2027q1_other
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2027q1_uses
2027Q1 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_corp, base_2027q1_interest, base_2027q1_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2027q1_cash_before_capex
2027Q1 / base8.77
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_site_cash, base_2027q1_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / base-791.23
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_capex, base_2027q1_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2027q2_lake_mw
2027Q2 / base410.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2027q2_lake_units
2027Q2 / base41,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2027q2_rent_per_mw
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2027q2_lake_revenue
2027Q2 / base205.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_lake_units, base_2027q2_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2027q2_justified_mw
2027Q2 / base0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2027q2_justified_fraction
2027Q2 / base0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2027q2_justified_realization
2027Q2 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2027q2_justified_revenue
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2027q2_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2027q2_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2027q2_hpc_revenue
2027Q2 / base205.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_lake_revenue, base_2027q2_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2027q2_mining_factor
2027Q2 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2027q2_mining
2027Q2 / base5.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q2_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base210.13
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_hpc_revenue, base_2027q2_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2027q2_hpc_margin
2027Q2 / base75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2027q2_hpc_cash
2027Q2 / base153.75
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_hpc_revenue, base_2027q2_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2027q2_mining_margin
2027Q2 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2027q2_mining_cash
2027Q2 / base0.51
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mining, base_2027q2_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2027q2_site_cash
2027Q2 / base154.26
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_hpc_cash, base_2027q2_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2027q2_corp
2027Q2 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2027q2_uses
2027Q2 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_corp, base_2027q2_interest, base_2027q2_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2027q2_cash_before_capex
2027Q2 / base46.76
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_site_cash, base_2027q2_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base900.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / base-853.24
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_capex, base_2027q2_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2027q3_lake_mw
2027Q3 / base438.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2027q3_lake_units
2027Q3 / base43,800.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2027q3_rent_per_mw
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2027q3_lake_revenue
2027Q3 / base219.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_lake_units, base_2027q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2027q3_justified_mw
2027Q3 / base20.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2027q3_justified_fraction
2027Q3 / base5.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2027q3_justified_realization
2027Q3 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2027q3_justified_revenue
2027Q3 / base10.07
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2027q3_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2027q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2027q3_hpc_revenue
2027Q3 / base229.07
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_lake_revenue, base_2027q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2027q3_mining_factor
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2027q3_mining
2027Q3 / base3.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base232.28
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_hpc_revenue, base_2027q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2027q3_hpc_margin
2027Q3 / base75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2027q3_hpc_cash
2027Q3 / base171.80
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_hpc_revenue, base_2027q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2027q3_mining_margin
2027Q3 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2027q3_mining_cash
2027Q3 / base0.32
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mining, base_2027q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2027q3_site_cash
2027Q3 / base172.12
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_hpc_cash, base_2027q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2027q3_corp
2027Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2027q3_uses
2027Q3 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_corp, base_2027q3_interest, base_2027q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2027q3_cash_before_capex
2027Q3 / base64.62
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_site_cash, base_2027q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base1,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / base-935.38
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_capex, base_2027q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
base_2027q4_lake_mw
2027Q4 / base438.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
base_2027q4_lake_units
2027Q4 / base43,800.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
base_2027q4_rent_per_mw
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
base_2027q4_lake_revenue
2027Q4 / base219.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_lake_units, base_2027q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
base_2027q4_justified_mw
2027Q4 / base100.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
base_2027q4_justified_fraction
2027Q4 / base24.9%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
base_2027q4_justified_realization
2027Q4 / base85.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
base_2027q4_justified_revenue
2027Q4 / base50.34
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, base_2027q4_justified_fraction, quarter, base_2027q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
base_2027q4_hpc_revenue
2027Q4 / base269.34
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_lake_revenue, base_2027q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
base_2027q4_mining_factor
2027Q4 / base15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
base_2027q4_mining
2027Q4 / base1.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, base_2027q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base271.27
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_hpc_revenue, base_2027q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
base_2027q4_hpc_margin
2027Q4 / base75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
base_2027q4_hpc_cash
2027Q4 / base202.01
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_hpc_revenue, base_2027q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
base_2027q4_mining_margin
2027Q4 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
base_2027q4_mining_cash
2027Q4 / base0.19
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mining, base_2027q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
base_2027q4_site_cash
2027Q4 / base202.20
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_hpc_cash, base_2027q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
base_2027q4_corp
2027Q4 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
base_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / base67.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
base_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
base_2027q4_uses
2027Q4 / base107.50
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_corp, base_2027q4_interest, base_2027q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
base_2027q4_cash_before_capex
2027Q4 / base94.70
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_site_cash, base_2027q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base900.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
base_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / base-805.30
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base271.88
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 HPC revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_hpc_revenue
FY2026 / base222.95
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_revenue, base_2026q3_hpc_revenue, base_2026q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_before_capex
FY2026 / base-237.85
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, base_2026q3_cash_before_capex, base_2026q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base2,778.51
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / base-3,016.36
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, base_2026q3_cash_after_capex, base_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
FY2027 Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base886.38
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 HPC revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_hpc_revenue
FY2027 / base868.41
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_hpc_revenue, base_2027q2_hpc_revenue, base_2027q3_hpc_revenue, base_2027q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_before_capex
FY2027 / base214.86
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_before_capex, base_2027q2_cash_before_capex, base_2027q3_cash_before_capex, base_2027q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base3,600.00
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / base-3,385.14
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capex, base_2027q2_cash_after_capex, base_2027q3_cash_after_capex, base_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2026q3_lake_mw
2026Q3 / upside150.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2026q3_lake_units
2026Q3 / upside15,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2026q3_rent_per_mw
2026Q3 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2026q3_lake_revenue
2026Q3 / upside82.50
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_lake_units, upside_2026q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2026q3_justified_mw
2026Q3 / upside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2026q3_justified_fraction
2026Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2026q3_justified_realization
2026Q3 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2026q3_justified_revenue
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2026q3_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2026q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue
2026Q3 / upside82.50
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_lake_revenue, upside_2026q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2026q3_mining_factor
2026Q3 / upside115.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2026q3_mining
2026Q3 / upside14.76
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2026q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside97.26
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2026q3_hpc_margin
2026Q3 / upside65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2026q3_hpc_cash
2026Q3 / upside53.62
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2026q3_mining_margin
2026Q3 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2026q3_mining_cash
2026Q3 / upside2.95
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mining, upside_2026q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2026q3_site_cash
2026Q3 / upside56.58
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_hpc_cash, upside_2026q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2026q3_corp
2026Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2026q3_interest
2026Q3 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2026q3_other
2026Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2026q3_uses
2026Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_corp, upside_2026q3_interest, upside_2026q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex
2026Q3 / upside-43.42
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_site_cash, upside_2026q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex
2026Q3 / upside-693.42
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2026q4_lake_mw
2026Q4 / upside280.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2026q4_lake_units
2026Q4 / upside28,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2026q4_rent_per_mw
2026Q4 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2026q4_lake_revenue
2026Q4 / upside154.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_lake_units, upside_2026q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2026q4_justified_mw
2026Q4 / upside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2026q4_justified_fraction
2026Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2026q4_justified_realization
2026Q4 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2026q4_justified_revenue
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2026q4_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2026q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue
2026Q4 / upside154.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_lake_revenue, upside_2026q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2026q4_mining_factor
2026Q4 / upside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2026q4_mining
2026Q4 / upside12.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2026q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside166.19
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2026q4_hpc_margin
2026Q4 / upside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2026q4_hpc_cash
2026Q4 / upside107.80
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2026q4_mining_margin
2026Q4 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2026q4_mining_cash
2026Q4 / upside2.44
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mining, upside_2026q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2026q4_site_cash
2026Q4 / upside110.24
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_hpc_cash, upside_2026q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2026q4_corp
2026Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2026q4_interest
2026Q4 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2026q4_other
2026Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2026q4_uses
2026Q4 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_corp, upside_2026q4_interest, upside_2026q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex
2026Q4 / upside10.24
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_site_cash, upside_2026q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex
2026Q4 / upside-639.76
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2027q1_lake_mw
2027Q1 / upside380.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2027q1_lake_units
2027Q1 / upside38,000.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2027q1_rent_per_mw
2027Q1 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2027q1_lake_revenue
2027Q1 / upside209.00
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_lake_units, upside_2027q1_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2027q1_justified_mw
2027Q1 / upside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2027q1_justified_fraction
2027Q1 / upside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2027q1_justified_realization
2027Q1 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2027q1_justified_revenue
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2027q1_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2027q1_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue
2027Q1 / upside209.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_lake_revenue, upside_2027q1_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2027q1_mining_factor
2027Q1 / upside75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2027q1_mining
2027Q1 / upside9.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q1_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside218.63
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q1_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2027q1_hpc_margin
2027Q1 / upside75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2027q1_hpc_cash
2027Q1 / upside156.75
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q1_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2027q1_mining_margin
2027Q1 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2027q1_mining_cash
2027Q1 / upside1.93
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mining, upside_2027q1_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2027q1_site_cash
2027Q1 / upside158.68
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_cash, upside_2027q1_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2027q1_corp
2027Q1 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2027q1_other
2027Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2027q1_uses
2027Q1 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_corp, upside_2027q1_interest, upside_2027q1_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex
2027Q1 / upside58.68
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_site_cash, upside_2027q1_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside750.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex
2027Q1 / upside-691.32
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q1_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2027q2_lake_mw
2027Q2 / upside438.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2027q2_lake_units
2027Q2 / upside43,800.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2027q2_rent_per_mw
2027Q2 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2027q2_lake_revenue
2027Q2 / upside240.90
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_lake_units, upside_2027q2_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2027q2_justified_mw
2027Q2 / upside0.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2027q2_justified_fraction
2027Q2 / upside0.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2027q2_justified_realization
2027Q2 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2027q2_justified_revenue
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2027q2_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2027q2_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue
2027Q2 / upside240.90
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_lake_revenue, upside_2027q2_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2027q2_mining_factor
2027Q2 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2027q2_mining
2027Q2 / upside6.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q2_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside247.32
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q2_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2027q2_hpc_margin
2027Q2 / upside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2027q2_hpc_cash
2027Q2 / upside192.72
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q2_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2027q2_mining_margin
2027Q2 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2027q2_mining_cash
2027Q2 / upside1.28
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mining, upside_2027q2_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2027q2_site_cash
2027Q2 / upside194.00
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_hpc_cash, upside_2027q2_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2027q2_corp
2027Q2 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2027q2_other
2027Q2 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2027q2_uses
2027Q2 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_corp, upside_2027q2_interest, upside_2027q2_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex
2027Q2 / upside94.00
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_site_cash, upside_2027q2_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside850.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex
2027Q2 / upside-756.00
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q2_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2027q3_lake_mw
2027Q3 / upside438.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2027q3_lake_units
2027Q3 / upside43,800.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2027q3_rent_per_mw
2027Q3 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2027q3_lake_revenue
2027Q3 / upside240.90
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_lake_units, upside_2027q3_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2027q3_justified_mw
2027Q3 / upside60.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2027q3_justified_fraction
2027Q3 / upside15.0%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2027q3_justified_realization
2027Q3 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2027q3_justified_revenue
2027Q3 / upside31.98
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2027q3_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2027q3_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue
2027Q3 / upside272.88
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_lake_revenue, upside_2027q3_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2027q3_mining_factor
2027Q3 / upside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2027q3_mining
2027Q3 / upside3.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q3_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside276.73
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q3_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2027q3_hpc_margin
2027Q3 / upside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2027q3_hpc_cash
2027Q3 / upside218.31
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q3_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2027q3_mining_margin
2027Q3 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2027q3_mining_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.77
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mining, upside_2027q3_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2027q3_site_cash
2027Q3 / upside219.08
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_hpc_cash, upside_2027q3_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2027q3_corp
2027Q3 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2027q3_other
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2027q3_uses
2027Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_corp, upside_2027q3_interest, upside_2027q3_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex
2027Q3 / upside119.08
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_site_cash, upside_2027q3_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside900.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex
2027Q3 / upside-780.92
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q3_capex).
Average rent-producing Lake Mariner IT MW
upside_2027q4_lake_mw
2027Q4 / upside438.00
MW
assumption: Desk within-quarter delivery/acceptance assumption; capped at disclosed 438 MW full capacity.
Lake Mariner MW / one MW
upside_2027q4_lake_units
2027Q4 / upside43,800.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize critical IT capacity for per-MW rental economics. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_lake_mw, one_mw).
Annual HPC revenue per Lake Mariner MW
upside_2027q4_rent_per_mw
2027Q4 / upside2.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk effective revenue per critical IT MW including lease and variable billings. This is not a disclosed contractual rent or a forecast contract repricing.
Lake Mariner revenue
upside_2027q4_lake_revenue
2027Q4 / upside240.90
USD_millions
derived: Average MW times annual revenue per MW times one quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_lake_units, upside_2027q4_rent_per_mw, quarter).
Average rent-producing Justified IT MW
upside_2027q4_justified_mw
2027Q4 / upside200.00
MW
assumption: Desk commissioning scenario. Company targets first capacity H2 2027 and full delivery starting 2028.
Justified active share of full IT capacity
upside_2027q4_justified_fraction
2027Q4 / upside49.9%
ratio
derived: Average delivered MW divided by contracted 401 MW. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_justified_mw, justified_full).
Initial rent / lifetime-average rent
upside_2027q4_justified_realization
2027Q4 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk discount to lifetime-average revenue to avoid treating 20-year contract average as first-year rent.
Justified revenue
upside_2027q4_justified_revenue
2027Q4 / upside106.61
USD_millions
derived: Lifetime-average annual contract revenue scaled for active MW, time and initial-rent realization. Formula: multiply(justified_annual_average, upside_2027q4_justified_fraction, quarter, upside_2027q4_justified_realization).
HPC revenue
upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue
2027Q4 / upside347.51
USD_millions
derived: Modeled rental and variable billings from Lake Mariner and Justified only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_lake_revenue, upside_2027q4_justified_revenue).
Mining revenue / Q2 baseline
upside_2027q4_mining_factor
2027Q4 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk remaining mining footprint and hashprice assumption as the site moves toward HPC.
Mining revenue
upside_2027q4_mining
2027Q4 / upside2.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported Q2 mining revenue times desk remaining-business factor. Formula: multiply(h1_q2_mining, upside_2027q4_mining_factor).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside350.08
USD_millions
derived: HPC plus mining; no revenue for long-dated power pipeline. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q4_mining).
HPC cash contribution margin
upside_2027q4_hpc_margin
2027Q4 / upside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk ramp margin after site cash operating costs; excludes depreciation and corporate costs. Not GAAP segment profit.
HPC cash contribution
upside_2027q4_hpc_cash
2027Q4 / upside278.01
USD_millions
derived: HPC revenue times explicitly assumed ramp cash margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q4_hpc_margin).
Mining cash contribution margin
upside_2027q4_mining_margin
2027Q4 / upside20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk cash mining contribution before corporate and financing costs.
Mining cash contribution
upside_2027q4_mining_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.51
USD_millions
derived: Assumes produced Bitcoin is monetized in the same quarter. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mining, upside_2027q4_mining_margin).
Site cash contribution
upside_2027q4_site_cash
2027Q4 / upside278.52
USD_millions
derived: Before corporate costs and financing. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_hpc_cash, upside_2027q4_mining_cash).
Cash corporate overhead
upside_2027q4_corp
2027Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Net cash interest allowance
upside_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / upside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Other working-capital and tax uses
upside_2027q4_other
2027Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash-use assumption; interest begins from H1 cash interest of $131.072M but does not forecast exact debt draws or payment dates.
Corporate and other cash uses
upside_2027q4_uses
2027Q4 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Positive cash uses; excludes debt principal and acquisitions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_corp, upside_2027q4_interest, upside_2027q4_other).
Cash before capex proxy
upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex
2027Q4 / upside178.52
USD_millions
derived: Analytical cash economics including mining sales; not GAAP CFO. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_site_cash, upside_2027q4_uses).
Construction cash capex and deposits
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside850.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk construction-spend scenario across existing and newly contracted sites; not guidance. Delay/overrun costs exceed early revenue effects in downside.
Cash after capex proxy
upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex
2027Q4 / upside-671.48
USD_millions
derived: Before asset sales, acquisitions, new financing, restricted reserves and debt principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
FY2026 Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside342.23
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
FY2026 HPC revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_hpc_revenue
FY2026 / upside289.45
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2026q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2026 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_before_capex
FY2026 / upside-162.84
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2026 Cash construction capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside2,678.51
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
FY2026 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_capex
FY2026 / upside-2,841.36
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex).
FY2027 Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside1,092.75
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
FY2027 HPC revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_hpc_revenue
FY2027 / upside1,070.29
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q2_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q3_hpc_revenue, upside_2027q4_hpc_revenue).
FY2027 Cash before capex proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_before_capex
FY2027 / upside450.28
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_before_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_before_capex).
FY2027 Cash construction capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside3,350.00
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
FY2027 Cash after capex proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_capex
FY2027 / upside-2,899.72
USD_millions
derived: Sum of first-half reported bridge and forecast H2 for 2026; sum of four modeled quarters for 2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex).
No additional cash movement
funding_zero
Model / shared0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Arithmetic zero; not a reported missing cash flow.
Scheduled principal: remainder of 2026
scheduled_h2_principal
H2 2026 / shared13.85
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q debt maturity table; excludes optional early convertible settlement, cash sweeps, leases and new borrowing. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Scheduled principal: 2027
scheduled_2027_principal
FY2027 / shared222.89
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q debt maturity table; modeled half in each April/October payment quarter. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June aggregate debt principal
june_debt_principal
2026Q2 / shared5,725.00
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q principal maturity total, distinct from carrying values and derivative liabilities. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June common shares outstanding
june_common_shares
2026Q2 / shared498.93
shares_millions
reported: Balance-sheet outstanding shares, not issued shares or quarterly weighted-average EPS shares. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June common stock warrants
june_warrants
2026Q2 / shared77.70
shares_millions
reported: 10-Q EPS note; weighted-average strike $0.10. Includes warrants already listed in that note; do not add Google again. Primary source · 2026-08-05
June restricted stock units
june_rsus
2026Q2 / shared36.22
shares_millions
reported: Unvested/participating equity claims; excludes the convertible note settlement alternatives. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Justified outside equity interest
justified_outside_interest
2026Q2 / shared6.8%
ratio
reported: Seller retained a 6.8% minority equity interest in the Justified development entity. Consolidated revenue is not automatically parent cash. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Whole ownership
ownership_one
Model / shared100.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic whole.
Justified parent equity interest
justified_parent_interest
2026Q2 / shared93.2%
ratio
derived: One less the disclosed 6.8% minority interest; no assumption that project cash is distributable. Formula: subtract(ownership_one, justified_outside_interest).
Effective July 6 sale: total consideration
abernathy_expected_proceeds
July 6 effective sale / shared530.00
USD_millions
reported: 10-Q Note 11: sale effective July 6, 2026; ownership disposed. Approximately $530M payable in three installments, not one closing cash payment. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2026q3_restricted_release
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2026q3_principal_weight
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2026q3_principal_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, downside_2026q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2026q3_external_net_funding
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
downside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash
2026Q3 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q3, downside_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2026q3_other_funding_uses
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2026q3_funding_sources
2026Q3 / downside125.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_restricted_release, downside_2026q3_external_net_funding, downside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2026q3_funding_uses
2026Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_principal_cash, downside_2026q3_other_funding_uses, downside_2026q3_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2026q3_cash_with_funding
2026Q3 / downside-782.90
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2026q3_funding_change
2026Q3 / downside-785.40
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_with_funding, downside_2026q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2026q3_funding_balance
2026Q3 / downside1,833.79
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(h1_cash, downside_2026q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2026q3_restricted_remaining
2026Q3 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(h1_restricted_cash, downside_2026q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2026q4_restricted_release
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2026q4_principal_weight
2026Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2026q4_principal_cash
2026Q4 / downside13.85
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, downside_2026q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2026q4_external_net_funding
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
downside_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q4 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Modeled installment cash collection
downside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash
2026Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q4, downside_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2026q4_other_funding_uses
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2026q4_funding_sources
2026Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_restricted_release, downside_2026q4_external_net_funding, downside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2026q4_funding_uses
2026Q4 / downside15.35
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_principal_cash, downside_2026q4_other_funding_uses, downside_2026q4_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2026q4_cash_with_funding
2026Q4 / downside-865.58
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_after_capex, downside_2026q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2026q4_funding_change
2026Q4 / downside-880.93
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_with_funding, downside_2026q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2026q4_funding_balance
2026Q4 / downside952.87
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_funding_balance, downside_2026q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2026q4_restricted_remaining
2026Q4 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_restricted_remaining, downside_2026q4_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2027q1_restricted_release
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2027q1_principal_weight
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2027q1_principal_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, downside_2027q1_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2027q1_external_net_funding
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
downside_2027q1_asset_sale_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2027q1_other_funding_uses
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2027q1_funding_sources
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_restricted_release, downside_2027q1_external_net_funding, downside_2027q1_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2027q1_funding_uses
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_principal_cash, downside_2027q1_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2027q1_cash_with_funding
2027Q1 / downside-1,063.12
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q1_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2027q1_funding_change
2027Q1 / downside-1,063.12
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_with_funding, downside_2027q1_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2027q1_funding_balance
2027Q1 / downside-110.26
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_funding_balance, downside_2027q1_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2027q1_restricted_remaining
2027Q1 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_restricted_remaining, downside_2027q1_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2027q2_restricted_release
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2027q2_principal_weight
2027Q2 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2027q2_principal_cash
2027Q2 / downside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, downside_2027q2_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2027q2_external_net_funding
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
downside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash
2027Q2 / downside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2027q2, downside_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2027q2_other_funding_uses
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2027q2_funding_sources
2027Q2 / downside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_restricted_release, downside_2027q2_external_net_funding, downside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2027q2_funding_uses
2027Q2 / downside112.74
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_principal_cash, downside_2027q2_other_funding_uses, downside_2027q2_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2027q2_cash_with_funding
2027Q2 / downside-1,079.00
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q2_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2027q2_funding_change
2027Q2 / downside-1,191.74
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_with_funding, downside_2027q2_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2027q2_funding_balance
2027Q2 / downside-1,302.00
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_funding_balance, downside_2027q2_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2027q2_restricted_remaining
2027Q2 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_restricted_remaining, downside_2027q2_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2027q3_restricted_release
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2027q3_principal_weight
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2027q3_principal_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, downside_2027q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2027q3_external_net_funding
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
downside_2027q3_asset_sale_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2027q3_other_funding_uses
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2027q3_funding_sources
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_restricted_release, downside_2027q3_external_net_funding, downside_2027q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2027q3_funding_uses
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_principal_cash, downside_2027q3_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2027q3_cash_with_funding
2027Q3 / downside-1,177.80
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2027q3_funding_change
2027Q3 / downside-1,177.80
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_with_funding, downside_2027q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2027q3_funding_balance
2027Q3 / downside-2,479.80
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_funding_balance, downside_2027q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2027q3_restricted_remaining
2027Q3 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_restricted_remaining, downside_2027q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
downside_2027q4_restricted_release
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
downside_2027q4_principal_weight
2027Q4 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
downside_2027q4_principal_cash
2027Q4 / downside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, downside_2027q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
downside_2027q4_external_net_funding
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
downside_2027q4_asset_sale_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
downside_2027q4_other_funding_uses
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
downside_2027q4_funding_sources
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_restricted_release, downside_2027q4_external_net_funding, downside_2027q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
downside_2027q4_funding_uses
2027Q4 / downside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_principal_cash, downside_2027q4_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
downside_2027q4_cash_with_funding
2027Q4 / downside-1,017.00
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_after_capex, downside_2027q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
downside_2027q4_funding_change
2027Q4 / downside-1,128.44
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_with_funding, downside_2027q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
downside_2027q4_funding_balance
2027Q4 / downside-3,608.25
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_funding_balance, downside_2027q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
downside_2027q4_restricted_remaining
2027Q4 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_restricted_remaining, downside_2027q4_restricted_release).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
downside_fy2026_funding_balance
FY2026 / downside952.87
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
downside_fy2026_restricted_remaining
FY2026 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
downside_fy2027_funding_balance
FY2027 / downside-3,608.25
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
downside_fy2027_restricted_remaining
FY2027 / downside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2026q3_restricted_release
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2026q3_principal_weight
2026Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2026q3_principal_cash
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, base_2026q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2026q3_external_net_funding
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
base_2026q3_asset_sale_cash
2026Q3 / base250.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q3, base_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2026q3_other_funding_uses
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2026q3_funding_sources
2026Q3 / base250.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_restricted_release, base_2026q3_external_net_funding, base_2026q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2026q3_funding_uses
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_principal_cash, base_2026q3_other_funding_uses, base_2026q3_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2026q3_cash_with_funding
2026Q3 / base-523.22
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_after_capex, base_2026q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2026q3_funding_change
2026Q3 / base-528.22
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_with_funding, base_2026q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2026q3_funding_balance
2026Q3 / base2,090.97
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(h1_cash, base_2026q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2026q3_restricted_remaining
2026Q3 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(h1_restricted_cash, base_2026q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2026q4_restricted_release
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2026q4_principal_weight
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2026q4_principal_cash
2026Q4 / base13.85
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, base_2026q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2026q4_external_net_funding
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
base_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Modeled installment cash collection
base_2026q4_asset_sale_cash
2026Q4 / base150.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q4, base_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2026q4_other_funding_uses
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2026q4_funding_sources
2026Q4 / base150.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_restricted_release, base_2026q4_external_net_funding, base_2026q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2026q4_funding_uses
2026Q4 / base16.85
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_principal_cash, base_2026q4_other_funding_uses, base_2026q4_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2026q4_cash_with_funding
2026Q4 / base-584.97
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_after_capex, base_2026q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2026q4_funding_change
2026Q4 / base-601.82
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_with_funding, base_2026q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2026q4_funding_balance
2026Q4 / base1,489.15
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_funding_balance, base_2026q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2026q4_restricted_remaining
2026Q4 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_restricted_remaining, base_2026q4_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2027q1_restricted_release
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2027q1_principal_weight
2027Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2027q1_principal_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, base_2027q1_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2027q1_external_net_funding
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
base_2027q1_asset_sale_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2027q1_other_funding_uses
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2027q1_funding_sources
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_restricted_release, base_2027q1_external_net_funding, base_2027q1_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2027q1_funding_uses
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_principal_cash, base_2027q1_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2027q1_cash_with_funding
2027Q1 / base-791.23
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_capex, base_2027q1_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2027q1_funding_change
2027Q1 / base-791.23
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_with_funding, base_2027q1_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2027q1_funding_balance
2027Q1 / base697.92
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_funding_balance, base_2027q1_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2027q1_restricted_remaining
2027Q1 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_restricted_remaining, base_2027q1_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2027q2_restricted_release
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2027q2_principal_weight
2027Q2 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2027q2_principal_cash
2027Q2 / base111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, base_2027q2_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2027q2_external_net_funding
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
base_2027q2_asset_sale_cash
2027Q2 / base130.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2027q2, base_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2027q2_other_funding_uses
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2027q2_funding_sources
2027Q2 / base130.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_restricted_release, base_2027q2_external_net_funding, base_2027q2_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2027q2_funding_uses
2027Q2 / base114.04
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_principal_cash, base_2027q2_other_funding_uses, base_2027q2_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2027q2_cash_with_funding
2027Q2 / base-723.24
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_after_capex, base_2027q2_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2027q2_funding_change
2027Q2 / base-837.28
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_with_funding, base_2027q2_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2027q2_funding_balance
2027Q2 / base-139.36
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_funding_balance, base_2027q2_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2027q2_restricted_remaining
2027Q2 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_restricted_remaining, base_2027q2_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2027q3_restricted_release
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2027q3_principal_weight
2027Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2027q3_principal_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, base_2027q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2027q3_external_net_funding
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
base_2027q3_asset_sale_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2027q3_other_funding_uses
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2027q3_funding_sources
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_restricted_release, base_2027q3_external_net_funding, base_2027q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2027q3_funding_uses
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_principal_cash, base_2027q3_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2027q3_cash_with_funding
2027Q3 / base-935.38
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_after_capex, base_2027q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2027q3_funding_change
2027Q3 / base-935.38
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_with_funding, base_2027q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2027q3_funding_balance
2027Q3 / base-1,074.74
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_funding_balance, base_2027q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2027q3_restricted_remaining
2027Q3 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_restricted_remaining, base_2027q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
base_2027q4_restricted_release
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
base_2027q4_principal_weight
2027Q4 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
base_2027q4_principal_cash
2027Q4 / base111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, base_2027q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
base_2027q4_external_net_funding
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
base_2027q4_asset_sale_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
base_2027q4_other_funding_uses
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
base_2027q4_funding_sources
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_restricted_release, base_2027q4_external_net_funding, base_2027q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
base_2027q4_funding_uses
2027Q4 / base111.44
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_principal_cash, base_2027q4_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
base_2027q4_cash_with_funding
2027Q4 / base-805.30
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_after_capex, base_2027q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
base_2027q4_funding_change
2027Q4 / base-916.75
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_with_funding, base_2027q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
base_2027q4_funding_balance
2027Q4 / base-1,991.48
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_funding_balance, base_2027q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
base_2027q4_restricted_remaining
2027Q4 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_restricted_remaining, base_2027q4_restricted_release).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
base_fy2026_funding_balance
FY2026 / base1,489.15
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
base_fy2026_restricted_remaining
FY2026 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
base_fy2027_funding_balance
FY2027 / base-1,991.48
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
base_fy2027_restricted_remaining
FY2027 / base409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2026q3_restricted_release
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2026q3_principal_weight
2026Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2026q3_principal_cash
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, upside_2026q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2026q3_external_net_funding
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
upside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash
2026Q3 / upside250.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q3, upside_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2026q3_other_funding_uses
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2026q3_funding_sources
2026Q3 / upside250.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_restricted_release, upside_2026q3_external_net_funding, upside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2026q3_funding_uses
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_principal_cash, upside_2026q3_other_funding_uses, upside_2026q3_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2026q3_cash_with_funding
2026Q3 / upside-443.42
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2026q3_funding_change
2026Q3 / upside-448.42
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_with_funding, upside_2026q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2026q3_funding_balance
2026Q3 / upside2,170.77
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(h1_cash, upside_2026q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2026q3_restricted_remaining
2026Q3 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(h1_restricted_cash, upside_2026q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2026q4_restricted_release
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2026q4_principal_weight
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2026q4_principal_cash
2026Q4 / upside13.85
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_h2_principal, upside_2026q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2026q4_external_net_funding
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
upside_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Modeled installment cash collection
upside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash
2026Q4 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2026q4, upside_2026q4_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2026q4_other_funding_uses
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2026q4_funding_sources
2026Q4 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_restricted_release, upside_2026q4_external_net_funding, upside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2026q4_funding_uses
2026Q4 / upside16.85
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_principal_cash, upside_2026q4_other_funding_uses, upside_2026q4_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2026q4_cash_with_funding
2026Q4 / upside-489.76
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_after_capex, upside_2026q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2026q4_funding_change
2026Q4 / upside-506.61
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_with_funding, upside_2026q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2026q4_funding_balance
2026Q4 / upside1,664.16
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_funding_balance, upside_2026q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2026q4_restricted_remaining
2026Q4 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_restricted_remaining, upside_2026q4_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2027q1_restricted_release
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2027q1_principal_weight
2027Q1 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2027q1_principal_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, upside_2027q1_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2027q1_external_net_funding
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
upside_2027q1_asset_sale_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2027q1_other_funding_uses
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2027q1_funding_sources
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_restricted_release, upside_2027q1_external_net_funding, upside_2027q1_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2027q1_funding_uses
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_principal_cash, upside_2027q1_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2027q1_cash_with_funding
2027Q1 / upside-691.32
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q1_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2027q1_funding_change
2027Q1 / upside-691.32
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_with_funding, upside_2027q1_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2027q1_funding_balance
2027Q1 / upside972.83
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_funding_balance, upside_2027q1_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2027q1_restricted_remaining
2027Q1 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_restricted_remaining, upside_2027q1_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2027q2_restricted_release
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2027q2_principal_weight
2027Q2 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2027q2_principal_cash
2027Q2 / upside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, upside_2027q2_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2027q2_external_net_funding
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Modeled installment cash collection
upside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash
2027Q2 / upside130.00
USD_millions
derived: Contractual due amount times explicit collection assumption; divestiture effective July 6, not recurring operating revenue. Formula: multiply(abernathy_due_2027q2, upside_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction).
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2027q2_other_funding_uses
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2027q2_funding_sources
2027Q2 / upside130.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_restricted_release, upside_2027q2_external_net_funding, upside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2027q2_funding_uses
2027Q2 / upside114.04
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_principal_cash, upside_2027q2_other_funding_uses, upside_2027q2_asset_sale_fees).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2027q2_cash_with_funding
2027Q2 / upside-626.00
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q2_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2027q2_funding_change
2027Q2 / upside-740.04
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_with_funding, upside_2027q2_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2027q2_funding_balance
2027Q2 / upside232.79
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_funding_balance, upside_2027q2_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2027q2_restricted_remaining
2027Q2 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_restricted_remaining, upside_2027q2_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2027q3_restricted_release
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2027q3_principal_weight
2027Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2027q3_principal_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, upside_2027q3_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2027q3_external_net_funding
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
upside_2027q3_asset_sale_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2027q3_other_funding_uses
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2027q3_funding_sources
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_restricted_release, upside_2027q3_external_net_funding, upside_2027q3_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2027q3_funding_uses
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_principal_cash, upside_2027q3_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2027q3_cash_with_funding
2027Q3 / upside-780.92
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q3_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2027q3_funding_change
2027Q3 / upside-780.92
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_with_funding, upside_2027q3_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2027q3_funding_balance
2027Q3 / upside-548.13
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_funding_balance, upside_2027q3_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2027q3_restricted_remaining
2027Q3 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_restricted_remaining, upside_2027q3_restricted_release).
Restricted funds used for qualifying spending
upside_2027q4_restricted_release
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No restricted funds assumed available for general funding. Change only with source-backed release conditions; this balance is not free parent cash.
Share of dated annual principal schedule
upside_2027q4_principal_weight
2027Q4 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Disclosed secured-note semiannual April/October payment quarters; optional early conversion and excess-cash-flow sweeps are not modeled.
Scheduled principal cash use
upside_2027q4_principal_cash
2027Q4 / upside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Annual disclosed maturity times explicit quarterly allocation. No second deduction of operating coupon costs. Formula: multiply(scheduled_2027_principal, upside_2027q4_principal_weight).
Additional net financing assumed
upside_2027q4_external_net_funding
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No unspecified new funding assumed. A negative funding balance identifies financing or spending changes still needed; it is not a forecast negative bank balance.
Asset-sale cash assumed
upside_2027q4_asset_sale_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No other asset sales assumed; no sale revenue is counted as recurring operating cash.
Additional investing, fees and outside-owner cash uses
upside_2027q4_other_funding_uses
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Zero leaves unspecified future acquisitions, minority put/distributions and cash sweeps unmodeled, not known absent. Sale costs are a separate explicit assumption; construction already in capex is not deducted twice.
Funding inflows outside operating model
upside_2027q4_funding_sources
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Transfers from restricted cash, dated financing and conditional disposals stay distinct from revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_restricted_release, upside_2027q4_external_net_funding, upside_2027q4_asset_sale_cash).
Cash uses outside operating model
upside_2027q4_funding_uses
2027Q4 / upside111.44
USD_millions
derived: Principal and extra investing/ownership uses; interest, working capital and capex are already in the existing operating bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_principal_cash, upside_2027q4_other_funding_uses).
Operating cash after capex plus funding
upside_2027q4_cash_with_funding
2027Q4 / upside-671.48
USD_millions
derived: Combines the operating model with explicit financing/restricted-fund assumptions once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_after_capex, upside_2027q4_funding_sources).
Net modeled funding change
upside_2027q4_funding_change
2027Q4 / upside-782.92
USD_millions
derived: Funding inflows less explicit cash uses; not a full GAAP cash-flow statement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_with_funding, upside_2027q4_funding_uses).
Funding balance under stated assumptions
upside_2027q4_funding_balance
2027Q4 / upside-1,331.06
USD_millions
derived: June unrestricted-cash baseline rolled through operating, capex and explicit funding assumptions. Negative means an unfilled funding requirement. This is not current cash, bank availability, owner distributions or a fully funded claim. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_funding_balance, upside_2027q4_funding_change).
Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge
upside_2027q4_restricted_remaining
2027Q4 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Opening restricted balance less modeled release. Not automatically available to satisfy other project or parent claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_restricted_remaining, upside_2027q4_restricted_release).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
upside_fy2026_funding_balance
FY2026 / upside1,664.16
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
upside_fy2026_restricted_remaining
FY2026 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Year-end Funding balance under stated assumptions ($M)
upside_fy2027_funding_balance
FY2027 / upside-1,331.06
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_funding_balance, funding_zero).
Year-end Remaining restricted cash in funding bridge ($M)
upside_fy2027_restricted_remaining
FY2027 / upside409.42
USD_millions
derived: Year-end stock equals Q4 ending balance; quarterly balances are never summed. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_restricted_remaining, funding_zero).
Abernathy contractual installment due
abernathy_due_2026q3
2026Q3 / shared250.00
USD_millions
reported: Note 11: $250M within 14 days of July 6; $150M by December 31, 2026; approximately $130M by April 30, 2027 subject to adjustment. Schedule is not evidence of cash receipt. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Abernathy contractual installment due
abernathy_due_2026q4
2026Q4 / shared150.00
USD_millions
reported: Note 11: $250M within 14 days of July 6; $150M by December 31, 2026; approximately $130M by April 30, 2027 subject to adjustment. Schedule is not evidence of cash receipt. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Abernathy contractual installment due
abernathy_due_2027q2
2027Q2 / shared130.00
USD_millions
reported: Note 11: $250M within 14 days of July 6; $150M by December 31, 2026; approximately $130M by April 30, 2027 subject to adjustment. Schedule is not evidence of cash receipt. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Assumed sale cash costs fraction
abernathy_fee_fraction
Sale collection / shared2.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk 2% reserve against collected consideration for costs/taxes; not reported transaction expenses. Actual cash costs remain to be confirmed.
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
downside_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q3 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
downside_2026q3_asset_sale_fees
2026Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
downside_2026q4_asset_sale_fees
2026Q4 / downside1.50
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
downside_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction
2027Q2 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
downside_2027q2_asset_sale_fees
2027Q2 / downside1.30
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
base_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
base_2026q3_asset_sale_fees
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
base_2026q4_asset_sale_fees
2026Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
base_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
base_2027q2_asset_sale_fees
2027Q2 / base2.60
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
upside_2026q3_sale_receipt_fraction
2026Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
upside_2026q3_asset_sale_fees
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
upside_2026q4_asset_sale_fees
2026Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).
Assumed collection of scheduled installment
upside_2027q2_sale_receipt_fraction
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Base/upside collect the contractual installment in its due quarter; downside collects half without an assumed catch-up. Collection timing and final adjustments are uncertain; these are forward assumptions, not verified bank receipts.
Assumed cash cost of sale collection
upside_2027q2_asset_sale_fees
2027Q2 / upside2.60
USD_millions
derived: Modeled cash collection times the desk cost reserve; not a reported cost. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_asset_sale_cash, abernathy_fee_fraction).

Model boundaries

Turning power and construction into leased IT capacity

Research reviewed 2026-09-20

How quickly does delivered HPC capacity cover the cash needed to build the next phase?

June 30 Lake Mariner capacity was 81 MW of critical IT; CB3 raised that to 102 MW in July. Another 336 MW under construction would bring the site to 438 MW. Justified adds a contracted 401 MW of critical IT under a 20-year base agreement of roughly $19B. Kentucky approved 482 MW of utility power on August 24; this is a different measure from usable IT MW. Initial Justified delivery targets H2 2027. H1 GAAP CFO was negative $154.3M, Bitcoin sales contributed $24.6M in investing, and PP&E purchases/deposits used $1,378.5M. Even strong revenue growth therefore needs a financing bridge. The Abernathy disposal was effective July 6; $530M approximate consideration is due in $250M/$150M/$130M installments. Modeled collection is separate from verified cash receipts.

The competing explanation

A large contracted backlog can coexist with substantial funding needs and little near-term cash retained. Rental economics can be attractive at full utilization while phased commissioning, startup costs, interest and construction deposits consume cash. Faster delivery can still require more financing before it improves shareholder economics.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Added conditional funding balances, scheduled principal, restricted-cash separation and dated share/minority claims. Corrected Abernathy: disposed effective July 6, with three contractual installments, rather than an unclosed sale. Collection/fee assumptions are distinct from reported cash. Preserved operating forecasts; project guarantees, early convert settlements, outside-owner puts and future financing remain limitations.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-25 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and peers quiet

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-1.3+0.1+1.357%
5 sessions-3.8-0.0+3.250%
10 sessions-5.0+0.2+4.453%
1 month (21 sessions)-7.4+0.2+6.253%
3 months (63 sessions)-15.4+0.5+12.152%
6 months (126 sessions)-23.5-0.1+16.450%
1 year (252 sessions)-25.4+0.3+32.850%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side. In the D7 test (403 anchors, 2023-2025) the 1-month band held 76% of outcomes, 3-month 77%, 6-month 76%, 1-year 75%, against a nominal 80%; the analog pool under-represents names that later delisted.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  2. [2] derived: Revenues, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  3. [3] reported: Revenues, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  4. [4] reported: Revenues, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  6. [6] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  10. [10] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  14. [14] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  19. [19] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  22. [22] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-24-000147, 10-Q filed 2024-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-25-000038, 10-Q filed 2025-05-09; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  26. [26] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-25-000061, 10-Q filed 2025-08-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  27. [27] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  30. [30] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001083301-24-000147, 10-Q filed 2024-11-12; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  31. [31] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  32. [32] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  33. [33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  34. [34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  35. [35] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  36. [36] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  37. [37] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  38. [38] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  39. [39] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  40. [40] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  41. [41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-25-000099, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  42. [42] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000031, 10-K filed 2026-02-27; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  43. [43] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000092, 10-Q filed 2026-05-08; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json
  44. [44] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001083301-26-000166, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-26T11:15:52+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001083301.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-26T11:15:52.942780+00:00 · authored c323398ed67c · generated 61c974e63940 · JSON

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