ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$VICR

VICOR CORP · Nasdaq · SIC 3679 · CIK 751978 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Vicor designs and manufactures power-conversion modules and licenses its intellectual property. Advanced Products serve demanding power-delivery applications, while Brick Products provide a mature industrial product base. Product volume, manufacturing yield and capacity utilization drive factory economics. Royalties offer different margins and cash timing, and patent litigation can introduce large nonrecurring receipts and payments.

Three drivers

  1. Advanced power-module shipments and factory yield
  2. Brick demand and licensing revenue composition
  3. Capacity spending, litigation cash and working capital

Thesis

Our view

Vicor can benefit from more demanding power-delivery requirements if Advanced Products scale at improving manufacturing margins. Royalties add attractive economics, but they must be separated from physical sales and patent settlements. The investment question is whether recurring operating cash can finance capacity without relying on stock-option proceeds or tax windfalls.

What changes it

Watch Advanced Products excluding royalties, manufacturing margins, delivery conversion and cash after capacity spending. Reassess if royalty recurrence is clarified, backlog fails to ship, or new capacity requires materially more cash than the desk allowance.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)93.2196.2†294.03141.04110.41107.3†2113.03143.45
Gross profit ($M)45.7650.4†744.4892.1963.5659.4†762.4883.110
Operating income ($M)5.4119.2†12-0.11345.41420.91115.7†1216.91334.915
Net income ($M)11.61610.2†172.51841.21928.31646.5†1720.71849.820
EPS, diluted ($)0.26210.06220.91230.63210.44221.0424
Diluted shares (M)45.22545.52645.12744.92547.326
Cash ($M)267.628277.329296.130338.531362.432402.833404.233
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)22.6†3410.1†3520.13665.2†3738.5†3415.7†35-3.93634.1†38
Capex ($M)8.5†391.7†404.5416.2†424.0†395.5†4012.44111.2†43
Free cash flow ($M)14.1†448.4†4515.6†4659.0†4734.5†4410.2†45-16.3†4623.0†48

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q3143.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q4155.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1172.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2189.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Power-module production and licensing must fund capacity

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Separate Advanced Products physical revenue, Brick Products and royalties. Keep the prior-year litigation settlement in reported history but never use it as recurring forward sales. Forecast physical-business growth and manufacturing margins independently from the royalty path. Translate GAAP operating income into cash using depreciation, equity compensation, ordinary cash taxes and working-capital investment, then deduct combined PP&E/internal-use software cash. FY2026 includes actual H1; FY2027 is the sum of four explicit desk quarters.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
Q2 Advanced physical-product revenue2026Q263.73derived. Separates product sales from the reported Advanced Products including licensing.
q2 brickJune 202649.19reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
q2 royaltyJune 202630.43reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
q2 revenueJune 2026143.35reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
q2 gross profitJune 202683.12reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
q2 operating incomeJune 202634.88reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
q2 tax benefitJune 202610.86reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
H1 cfoH1 202630.20reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29
H1 litigation cashH1 202628.56reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29
H1 capexH1 202623.56reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29
H1 cash after asset purchasesH1 20266.64derived. Combined PP&E and internal-use software scope.
cashJune 2026453.58reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
backlogJune 2026380.00reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-21
capex commitmentsJune 202622.75reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
option proceedsJune 202644.22reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29
Replacement buyback authorizationAugust 25, 2026150.00reported. Replaces previous authorization; not additional executed cash spending. Source · 2026-08-27
prior year settlementJune 202645.00reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)Brick Products revenue ($M)PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)Product and royalty revenue ($M)Royalty revenue ($M)Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2026Q316.84-8.1647.0025.00124.0015.0062.0058.589.58
2026Q413.37-16.6346.0030.00126.0015.0065.0059.819.31
2027Q114.30-25.7044.0040.00128.0016.0068.0061.709.70
2027Q216.03-28.9744.0045.00135.0017.0074.0065.6812.18
FY202660.41-18.15190.2478.56506.3275.39240.69263.8870.65
FY202769.89-105.11179.00175.00554.0069.00306.00269.9952.99

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)Brick Products revenue ($M)PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)Product and royalty revenue ($M)Royalty revenue ($M)Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2026Q334.1014.1050.0020.00143.0023.0070.0079.1731.17
2026Q437.6612.6651.0025.00155.0024.0080.0086.0836.58
2027Q144.819.8151.0035.00172.0026.0095.0096.3045.30
2027Q252.1712.1752.0040.00189.0027.00110.00106.0553.55
FY2026101.9533.39198.2468.56554.3292.39263.69310.74119.51
FY2027222.1957.19210.00165.00785.00110.00465.00441.48228.48

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)Brick Products revenue ($M)PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)Product and royalty revenue ($M)Royalty revenue ($M)Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
2026Q347.8725.8752.0022.00160.0030.0078.0097.8248.82
2026Q457.1729.1754.0028.00180.0032.0094.00110.3459.84
2027Q168.5530.5555.0038.00204.0034.00115.00125.4873.48
2027Q280.3537.3557.0043.00228.0036.00135.00140.6487.14
FY2026135.2361.67203.2473.56596.32107.39285.69353.64160.42
FY2027345.29168.29231.00177.00959.00148.00580.00593.08376.08
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared256.32
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 brick
h1_brick
H1 2026 / shared97.24
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 royalty
h1_royalty
H1 2026 / shared45.39
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 2026 / shared145.49
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared51.76
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared30.20
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared23.56
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 litigation cash
h1_litigation_cash
H1 2026 / shared28.56
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 da
h1_da
H1 2026 / shared10.76
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared8.03
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 tax benefit
h1_tax_benefit
H1 2026 / shared11.14
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 deferred tax benefit
h1_deferred_tax_benefit
H1 2026 / shared11.29
USD_millions
reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 reported Advanced Products including royalties
h1_advanced_including_royalties
H1 2026 / shared159.08
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-29
H1 Advanced physical-product revenue
h1_advanced
H1 2026 / shared113.69
USD_millions
derived: Remove licensing revenue before modeling product demand. Formula: subtract(h1_advanced_including_royalties, h1_royalty).
H1 cash after asset purchases
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared6.64
USD_millions
derived: Combined PP&E and internal-use software scope. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
q2 revenue
q2_revenue
June 2026 / shared143.35
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 advanced including royalties
q2_advanced_including_royalties
June 2026 / shared94.16
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 brick
q2_brick
June 2026 / shared49.19
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 royalty
q2_royalty
June 2026 / shared30.43
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 gross profit
q2_gross_profit
June 2026 / shared83.12
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 operating income
q2_operating_income
June 2026 / shared34.88
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
q2 tax benefit
q2_tax_benefit
June 2026 / shared10.86
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
cash
cash
June 2026 / shared453.58
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
backlog
backlog
June 2026 / shared380.00
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-21
capex commitments
capex_commitments
June 2026 / shared22.75
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
option proceeds
option_proceeds
June 2026 / shared44.22
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
prior year settlement
prior_year_settlement
June 2026 / shared45.00
USD_millions
reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29
Q2 Advanced physical-product revenue
q2_advanced
2026Q2 / shared63.73
USD_millions
derived: Separates product sales from the reported Advanced Products including licensing. Formula: subtract(q2_advanced_including_royalties, q2_royalty).
Replacement buyback authorization
buyback_authorized
August 25, 2026 / shared150.00
USD_millions
reported: Replaces previous authorization; not additional executed cash spending. Primary source · 2026-08-27
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2026q3_advanced_shipments
2026Q3 / downside97.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2026q3_advanced
2026Q3 / downside62.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2026q3_brick_shipments
2026Q3 / downside95.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2026q3_brick
2026Q3 / downside47.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2026q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2026q3_royalty
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside124.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2026q3_advanced_margin
2026Q3 / downside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2026q3_advanced_gp
2026Q3 / downside27.28
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2026q3_brick_margin
2026Q3 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2026q3_brick_gp
2026Q3 / downside16.45
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2026q3_royalty_margin
2026Q3 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2026q3_royalty_gp
2026Q3 / downside14.85
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_royalty, downside_2026q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside58.58
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_advanced_gp, downside_2026q3_brick_gp, downside_2026q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2026q3_operating_expense
2026Q3 / downside49.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside9.58
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside4.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2026q3_interest_cash
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / downside23.08
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2026q3_revenue_change
2026Q3 / downside-19.35
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2026q3_wc_rate
2026Q3 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2026q3_growth_wc
2026Q3 / downside-3.48
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue_change, downside_2026q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2026q3_capacity_inventory
2026Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2026q3_working_capital_use
2026Q3 / downside4.52
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_growth_wc, downside_2026q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate
2026Q3 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside1.72
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside6.24
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_working_capital_use, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside16.84
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-8.16
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2026q4_advanced_shipments
2026Q4 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2026q4_advanced
2026Q4 / downside65.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2026q4_brick_shipments
2026Q4 / downside93.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2026q4_brick
2026Q4 / downside46.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2026q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2026q4_royalty
2026Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside126.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_advanced, downside_2026q4_brick, downside_2026q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2026q4_advanced_margin
2026Q4 / downside44.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2026q4_advanced_gp
2026Q4 / downside28.86
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2026q4_brick_margin
2026Q4 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2026q4_brick_gp
2026Q4 / downside16.10
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_brick, downside_2026q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2026q4_royalty_margin
2026Q4 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2026q4_royalty_gp
2026Q4 / downside14.85
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_royalty, downside_2026q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside59.81
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_advanced_gp, downside_2026q4_brick_gp, downside_2026q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2026q4_operating_expense
2026Q4 / downside50.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside9.31
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside4.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2026q4_interest_cash
2026Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / downside23.41
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2026q4_revenue_change
2026Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2026q4_wc_rate
2026Q4 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2026q4_growth_wc
2026Q4 / downside0.36
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue_change, downside_2026q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2026q4_capacity_inventory
2026Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2026q4_working_capital_use
2026Q4 / downside8.36
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_growth_wc, downside_2026q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate
2026Q4 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside1.68
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside10.04
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_working_capital_use, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside13.37
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-16.63
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q1_advanced_shipments
2027Q1 / downside106.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2027q1_advanced
2027Q1 / downside68.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q1_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q1_brick_shipments
2027Q1 / downside89.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2027q1_brick
2027Q1 / downside44.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q1_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2027q1_royalty
2027Q1 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside128.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q1_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2027q1_advanced_margin
2027Q1 / downside44.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2027q1_advanced_gp
2027Q1 / downside30.46
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q1_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2027q1_brick_margin
2027Q1 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2027q1_brick_gp
2027Q1 / downside15.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q1_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2027q1_royalty_margin
2027Q1 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2027q1_royalty_gp
2027Q1 / downside15.84
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_royalty, downside_2027q1_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside61.70
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced_gp, downside_2027q1_brick_gp, downside_2027q1_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q1_operating_expense
2027Q1 / downside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside9.70
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside4.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2027q1_interest_cash
2027Q1 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / downside24.40
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2027q1_revenue_change
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2027q1_wc_rate
2027Q1 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2027q1_growth_wc
2027Q1 / downside0.36
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue_change, downside_2027q1_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2027q1_capacity_inventory
2027Q1 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2027q1_working_capital_use
2027Q1 / downside8.36
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_growth_wc, downside_2027q1_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate
2027Q1 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside1.75
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside10.11
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_working_capital_use, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside14.30
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-25.70
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q2_advanced_shipments
2027Q2 / downside116.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2027q2_advanced
2027Q2 / downside74.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q2_brick_shipments
2027Q2 / downside89.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2027q2_brick
2027Q2 / downside44.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q2_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2027q2_royalty
2027Q2 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside135.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q2_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2027q2_advanced_margin
2027Q2 / downside45.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2027q2_advanced_gp
2027Q2 / downside33.45
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2027q2_brick_margin
2027Q2 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2027q2_brick_gp
2027Q2 / downside15.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q2_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2027q2_royalty_margin
2027Q2 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2027q2_royalty_gp
2027Q2 / downside16.83
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_royalty, downside_2027q2_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside65.68
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_advanced_gp, downside_2027q2_brick_gp, downside_2027q2_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q2_operating_expense
2027Q2 / downside53.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside12.18
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside4.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2027q2_interest_cash
2027Q2 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / downside27.48
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2027q2_revenue_change
2027Q2 / downside7.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q1_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2027q2_wc_rate
2027Q2 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2027q2_growth_wc
2027Q2 / downside1.26
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue_change, downside_2027q2_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2027q2_capacity_inventory
2027Q2 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2027q2_working_capital_use
2027Q2 / downside9.26
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_growth_wc, downside_2027q2_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate
2027Q2 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside2.19
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside11.45
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_working_capital_use, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside16.03
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-28.97
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q3_advanced_shipments
2027Q3 / downside125.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2027q3_advanced
2027Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q3_brick_shipments
2027Q3 / downside91.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2027q3_brick
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2027q3_royalty
2027Q3 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside143.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2027q3_advanced_margin
2027Q3 / downside45.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2027q3_advanced_gp
2027Q3 / downside36.48
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2027q3_brick_margin
2027Q3 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2027q3_brick_gp
2027Q3 / downside15.75
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2027q3_royalty_margin
2027Q3 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2027q3_royalty_gp
2027Q3 / downside17.82
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_royalty, downside_2027q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside70.05
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_advanced_gp, downside_2027q3_brick_gp, downside_2027q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q3_operating_expense
2027Q3 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside15.05
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside4.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / downside30.95
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2027q3_revenue_change
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2027q3_wc_rate
2027Q3 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2027q3_growth_wc
2027Q3 / downside1.44
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue_change, downside_2027q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2027q3_capacity_inventory
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / downside9.44
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_growth_wc, downside_2027q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate
2027Q3 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside2.71
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside12.15
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_working_capital_use, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside18.80
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-26.20
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q4_advanced_shipments
2027Q4 / downside131.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
downside_2027q4_advanced
2027Q4 / downside84.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
downside_2027q4_brick_shipments
2027Q4 / downside93.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
downside_2027q4_brick
2027Q4 / downside46.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
downside_2027q4_royalty
2027Q4 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside148.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_advanced, downside_2027q4_brick, downside_2027q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
downside_2027q4_advanced_margin
2027Q4 / downside46.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
downside_2027q4_advanced_gp
2027Q4 / downside38.64
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
downside_2027q4_brick_margin
2027Q4 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
downside_2027q4_brick_gp
2027Q4 / downside16.10
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_brick, downside_2027q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
downside_2027q4_royalty_margin
2027Q4 / downside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
downside_2027q4_royalty_gp
2027Q4 / downside17.82
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_royalty, downside_2027q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside72.56
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_advanced_gp, downside_2027q4_brick_gp, downside_2027q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q4_operating_expense
2027Q4 / downside56.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside16.06
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
downside_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / downside32.56
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
downside_2027q4_revenue_change
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
downside_2027q4_wc_rate
2027Q4 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
downside_2027q4_growth_wc
2027Q4 / downside0.90
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue_change, downside_2027q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
downside_2027q4_capacity_inventory
2027Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
downside_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / downside8.90
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_growth_wc, downside_2027q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate
2027Q4 / downside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside2.89
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
downside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside11.79
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_working_capital_use, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside20.77
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-24.23
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside506.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_advanced
FY2026 / downside240.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_brick
FY2026 / downside190.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_royalty
FY2026 / downside75.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, downside_2026q3_royalty, downside_2026q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside263.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside70.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside60.41
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside78.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-18.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside554.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_advanced
FY2027 / downside306.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_brick
FY2027 / downside179.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_royalty
FY2027 / downside69.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_royalty, downside_2027q2_royalty, downside_2027q3_royalty, downside_2027q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside269.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside52.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside69.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside175.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-105.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2026q3_advanced_shipments
2026Q3 / base109.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2026q3_advanced
2026Q3 / base70.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2026q3_brick_shipments
2026Q3 / base101.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2026q3_brick
2026Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2026q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2026q3_royalty
2026Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base143.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2026q3_advanced_margin
2026Q3 / base52.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2026q3_advanced_gp
2026Q3 / base36.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2026q3_brick_margin
2026Q3 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2026q3_brick_gp
2026Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2026q3_royalty_margin
2026Q3 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2026q3_royalty_gp
2026Q3 / base22.77
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_royalty, base_2026q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base79.17
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_advanced_gp, base_2026q3_brick_gp, base_2026q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2026q3_operating_expense
2026Q3 / base48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base31.17
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base4.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2026q3_interest_cash
2026Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / base44.67
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2026q3_revenue_change
2026Q3 / base-0.35
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2026q3_wc_rate
2026Q3 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2026q3_growth_wc
2026Q3 / base-0.04
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue_change, base_2026q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2026q3_capacity_inventory
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2026q3_working_capital_use
2026Q3 / base4.96
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_growth_wc, base_2026q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate
2026Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base5.61
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base10.57
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_working_capital_use, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base34.10
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_wc, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base14.10
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2026q4_advanced_shipments
2026Q4 / base125.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2026q4_advanced
2026Q4 / base80.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2026q4_brick_shipments
2026Q4 / base103.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2026q4_brick
2026Q4 / base51.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2026q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2026q4_royalty
2026Q4 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base155.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_advanced, base_2026q4_brick, base_2026q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2026q4_advanced_margin
2026Q4 / base52.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2026q4_advanced_gp
2026Q4 / base41.92
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2026q4_brick_margin
2026Q4 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2026q4_brick_gp
2026Q4 / base20.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_brick, base_2026q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2026q4_royalty_margin
2026Q4 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2026q4_royalty_gp
2026Q4 / base23.76
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_royalty, base_2026q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base86.08
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_advanced_gp, base_2026q4_brick_gp, base_2026q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2026q4_operating_expense
2026Q4 / base49.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base36.58
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base4.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2026q4_interest_cash
2026Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / base50.68
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2026q4_revenue_change
2026Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2026q4_wc_rate
2026Q4 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2026q4_growth_wc
2026Q4 / base1.44
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue_change, base_2026q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2026q4_capacity_inventory
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2026q4_working_capital_use
2026Q4 / base6.44
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_growth_wc, base_2026q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate
2026Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base6.58
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base13.02
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_working_capital_use, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base37.66
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_wc, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base12.66
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q1_advanced_shipments
2027Q1 / base149.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2027q1_advanced
2027Q1 / base95.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q1_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q1_brick_shipments
2027Q1 / base103.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2027q1_brick
2027Q1 / base51.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q1_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2027q1_royalty
2027Q1 / base26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base172.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q1_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2027q1_advanced_margin
2027Q1 / base52.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2027q1_advanced_gp
2027Q1 / base50.16
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q1_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2027q1_brick_margin
2027Q1 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2027q1_brick_gp
2027Q1 / base20.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q1_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2027q1_royalty_margin
2027Q1 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2027q1_royalty_gp
2027Q1 / base25.74
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_royalty, base_2027q1_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base96.30
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced_gp, base_2027q1_brick_gp, base_2027q1_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q1_operating_expense
2027Q1 / base51.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base45.30
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base4.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2027q1_interest_cash
2027Q1 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / base60.00
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2027q1_revenue_change
2027Q1 / base17.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2027q1_wc_rate
2027Q1 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2027q1_growth_wc
2027Q1 / base2.04
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue_change, base_2027q1_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2027q1_capacity_inventory
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2027q1_working_capital_use
2027Q1 / base7.04
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_growth_wc, base_2027q1_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate
2027Q1 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base8.15
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base15.19
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_working_capital_use, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base44.81
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_wc, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base9.81
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q2_advanced_shipments
2027Q2 / base172.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2027q2_advanced
2027Q2 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q2_brick_shipments
2027Q2 / base105.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2027q2_brick
2027Q2 / base52.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q2_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2027q2_royalty
2027Q2 / base27.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base189.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q2_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2027q2_advanced_margin
2027Q2 / base53.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2027q2_advanced_gp
2027Q2 / base58.52
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2027q2_brick_margin
2027Q2 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2027q2_brick_gp
2027Q2 / base20.80
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q2_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2027q2_royalty_margin
2027Q2 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2027q2_royalty_gp
2027Q2 / base26.73
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_royalty, base_2027q2_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base106.05
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_advanced_gp, base_2027q2_brick_gp, base_2027q2_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q2_operating_expense
2027Q2 / base52.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base53.55
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base4.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2027q2_interest_cash
2027Q2 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / base68.85
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2027q2_revenue_change
2027Q2 / base17.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q1_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2027q2_wc_rate
2027Q2 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2027q2_growth_wc
2027Q2 / base2.04
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue_change, base_2027q2_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2027q2_capacity_inventory
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2027q2_working_capital_use
2027Q2 / base7.04
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_growth_wc, base_2027q2_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate
2027Q2 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base9.64
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base16.68
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_working_capital_use, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base52.17
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_wc, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base12.17
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q3_advanced_shipments
2027Q3 / base196.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2027q3_advanced
2027Q3 / base125.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q3_brick_shipments
2027Q3 / base107.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2027q3_brick
2027Q3 / base53.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2027q3_royalty
2027Q3 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base206.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2027q3_advanced_margin
2027Q3 / base53.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2027q3_advanced_gp
2027Q3 / base67.00
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2027q3_brick_margin
2027Q3 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2027q3_brick_gp
2027Q3 / base21.20
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2027q3_royalty_margin
2027Q3 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2027q3_royalty_gp
2027Q3 / base27.72
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_royalty, base_2027q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base115.92
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_advanced_gp, base_2027q3_brick_gp, base_2027q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q3_operating_expense
2027Q3 / base54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base61.92
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base4.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / base77.82
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2027q3_revenue_change
2027Q3 / base17.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2027q3_wc_rate
2027Q3 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2027q3_growth_wc
2027Q3 / base2.04
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue_change, base_2027q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2027q3_capacity_inventory
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / base7.04
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_growth_wc, base_2027q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate
2027Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base11.15
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base18.19
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_working_capital_use, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base59.63
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base14.63
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q4_advanced_shipments
2027Q4 / base211.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
base_2027q4_advanced
2027Q4 / base135.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
base_2027q4_brick_shipments
2027Q4 / base109.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
base_2027q4_brick
2027Q4 / base54.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
base_2027q4_royalty
2027Q4 / base29.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base218.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_advanced, base_2027q4_brick, base_2027q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
base_2027q4_advanced_margin
2027Q4 / base54.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
base_2027q4_advanced_gp
2027Q4 / base72.90
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
base_2027q4_brick_margin
2027Q4 / base40.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
base_2027q4_brick_gp
2027Q4 / base21.60
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_brick, base_2027q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
base_2027q4_royalty_margin
2027Q4 / base99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
base_2027q4_royalty_gp
2027Q4 / base28.71
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_royalty, base_2027q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base123.21
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_advanced_gp, base_2027q4_brick_gp, base_2027q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q4_operating_expense
2027Q4 / base55.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base67.71
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
base_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
base_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / base84.21
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
base_2027q4_revenue_change
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
base_2027q4_wc_rate
2027Q4 / base12.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
base_2027q4_growth_wc
2027Q4 / base1.44
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue_change, base_2027q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
base_2027q4_capacity_inventory
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
base_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / base6.44
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_growth_wc, base_2027q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate
2027Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base12.19
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
base_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base18.63
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_working_capital_use, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base65.58
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base20.58
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base554.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_advanced
FY2026 / base263.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_brick
FY2026 / base198.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_royalty
FY2026 / base92.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, base_2026q3_royalty, base_2026q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base310.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base119.51
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base101.95
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base68.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base33.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base785.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_advanced
FY2027 / base465.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_brick
FY2027 / base210.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_royalty
FY2027 / base110.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_royalty, base_2027q2_royalty, base_2027q3_royalty, base_2027q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base441.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base228.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base222.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base165.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base57.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2026q3_advanced_shipments
2026Q3 / upside122.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2026q3_advanced
2026Q3 / upside78.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2026q3_brick_shipments
2026Q3 / upside105.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2026q3_brick
2026Q3 / upside52.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2026q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2026q3_royalty
2026Q3 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside160.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2026q3_advanced_margin
2026Q3 / upside58.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2026q3_advanced_gp
2026Q3 / upside45.24
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2026q3_brick_margin
2026Q3 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2026q3_brick_gp
2026Q3 / upside22.88
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2026q3_royalty_margin
2026Q3 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2026q3_royalty_gp
2026Q3 / upside29.70
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_royalty, upside_2026q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside97.82
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_advanced_gp, upside_2026q3_brick_gp, upside_2026q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2026q3_operating_expense
2026Q3 / upside49.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside48.82
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside4.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2026q3_interest_cash
2026Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc
2026Q3 / upside62.32
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2026q3_revenue_change
2026Q3 / upside16.65
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2026q3_wc_rate
2026Q3 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2026q3_growth_wc
2026Q3 / upside1.66
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue_change, upside_2026q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2026q3_capacity_inventory
2026Q3 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2026q3_working_capital_use
2026Q3 / upside5.66
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_growth_wc, upside_2026q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate
2026Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside8.79
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside14.45
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_working_capital_use, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside47.87
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside25.87
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2026q4_advanced_shipments
2026Q4 / upside147.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2026q4_advanced
2026Q4 / upside94.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2026q4_brick_shipments
2026Q4 / upside109.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2026q4_brick
2026Q4 / upside54.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2026q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2026q4_royalty
2026Q4 / upside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_advanced, upside_2026q4_brick, upside_2026q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2026q4_advanced_margin
2026Q4 / upside58.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2026q4_advanced_gp
2026Q4 / upside54.90
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2026q4_brick_margin
2026Q4 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2026q4_brick_gp
2026Q4 / upside23.76
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_brick, upside_2026q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2026q4_royalty_margin
2026Q4 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2026q4_royalty_gp
2026Q4 / upside31.68
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_royalty, upside_2026q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside110.34
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_advanced_gp, upside_2026q4_brick_gp, upside_2026q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2026q4_operating_expense
2026Q4 / upside50.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside59.84
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside4.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2026q4_interest_cash
2026Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / upside73.94
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2026q4_revenue_change
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2026q4_wc_rate
2026Q4 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2026q4_growth_wc
2026Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue_change, upside_2026q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2026q4_capacity_inventory
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2026q4_working_capital_use
2026Q4 / upside6.00
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_growth_wc, upside_2026q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate
2026Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside10.77
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside16.77
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_working_capital_use, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside57.17
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside29.17
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q1_advanced_shipments
2027Q1 / upside180.4%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2027q1_advanced
2027Q1 / upside115.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q1_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q1_brick_shipments
2027Q1 / upside111.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2027q1_brick
2027Q1 / upside55.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q1_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2027q1_royalty
2027Q1 / upside34.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside204.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q1_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2027q1_advanced_margin
2027Q1 / upside58.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2027q1_advanced_gp
2027Q1 / upside67.62
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q1_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2027q1_brick_margin
2027Q1 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2027q1_brick_gp
2027Q1 / upside24.20
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q1_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2027q1_royalty_margin
2027Q1 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2027q1_royalty_gp
2027Q1 / upside33.66
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_royalty, upside_2027q1_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside125.48
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced_gp, upside_2027q1_brick_gp, upside_2027q1_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q1_operating_expense
2027Q1 / upside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside73.48
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside4.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2027q1_interest_cash
2027Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / upside88.18
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2027q1_revenue_change
2027Q1 / upside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2027q1_wc_rate
2027Q1 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2027q1_growth_wc
2027Q1 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue_change, upside_2027q1_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2027q1_capacity_inventory
2027Q1 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2027q1_working_capital_use
2027Q1 / upside6.40
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_growth_wc, upside_2027q1_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate
2027Q1 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside13.23
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside19.63
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_working_capital_use, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside68.55
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside30.55
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q2_advanced_shipments
2027Q2 / upside211.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2027q2_advanced
2027Q2 / upside135.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q2_brick_shipments
2027Q2 / upside115.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2027q2_brick
2027Q2 / upside57.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q2_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2027q2_royalty
2027Q2 / upside36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside228.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q2_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2027q2_advanced_margin
2027Q2 / upside59.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2027q2_advanced_gp
2027Q2 / upside79.92
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2027q2_brick_margin
2027Q2 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2027q2_brick_gp
2027Q2 / upside25.08
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q2_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2027q2_royalty_margin
2027Q2 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2027q2_royalty_gp
2027Q2 / upside35.64
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_royalty, upside_2027q2_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside140.64
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_advanced_gp, upside_2027q2_brick_gp, upside_2027q2_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q2_operating_expense
2027Q2 / upside53.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside87.14
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside4.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2027q2_interest_cash
2027Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / upside102.44
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2027q2_revenue_change
2027Q2 / upside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q1_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2027q2_wc_rate
2027Q2 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2027q2_growth_wc
2027Q2 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue_change, upside_2027q2_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2027q2_capacity_inventory
2027Q2 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2027q2_working_capital_use
2027Q2 / upside6.40
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_growth_wc, upside_2027q2_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate
2027Q2 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside15.69
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside22.09
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_working_capital_use, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside80.35
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside43.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside37.35
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q3_advanced_shipments
2027Q3 / upside243.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2027q3_advanced
2027Q3 / upside155.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q3_brick_shipments
2027Q3 / upside119.9%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2027q3_brick
2027Q3 / upside59.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q3_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2027q3_royalty
2027Q3 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside252.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q3_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2027q3_advanced_margin
2027Q3 / upside59.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2027q3_advanced_gp
2027Q3 / upside92.38
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2027q3_brick_margin
2027Q3 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2027q3_brick_gp
2027Q3 / upside25.96
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q3_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2027q3_royalty_margin
2027Q3 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2027q3_royalty_gp
2027Q3 / upside37.62
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_royalty, upside_2027q3_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside155.96
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_advanced_gp, upside_2027q3_brick_gp, upside_2027q3_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q3_operating_expense
2027Q3 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside100.96
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside4.90
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2027q3_interest_cash
2027Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / upside116.86
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2027q3_revenue_change
2027Q3 / upside24.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2027q3_wc_rate
2027Q3 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2027q3_growth_wc
2027Q3 / upside2.40
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue_change, upside_2027q3_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2027q3_capacity_inventory
2027Q3 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2027q3_working_capital_use
2027Q3 / upside6.40
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_growth_wc, upside_2027q3_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate
2027Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside18.17
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside24.57
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_working_capital_use, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside92.29
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside44.29
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Advanced shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q4_advanced_shipments
2027Q4 / upside274.6%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Advanced physical-product revenue
upside_2027q4_advanced
2027Q4 / upside175.00
USD_millions
derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced_shipments).
Brick shipments / Q2 reference
upside_2027q4_brick_shipments
2027Q4 / upside122.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Brick Products revenue
upside_2027q4_brick
2027Q4 / upside60.00
USD_millions
derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q4_brick_shipments).
Royalty revenue
upside_2027q4_royalty
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified.
Product and royalty revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside275.00
USD_millions
derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_advanced, upside_2027q4_brick, upside_2027q4_royalty).
advanced gross margin
upside_2027q4_advanced_margin
2027Q4 / upside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
advanced gross profit
upside_2027q4_advanced_gp
2027Q4 / upside105.00
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced_margin).
brick gross margin
upside_2027q4_brick_margin
2027Q4 / upside44.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
brick gross profit
upside_2027q4_brick_gp
2027Q4 / upside26.40
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_brick, upside_2027q4_brick_margin).
royalty gross margin
upside_2027q4_royalty_margin
2027Q4 / upside99.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
royalty gross profit
upside_2027q4_royalty_gp
2027Q4 / upside39.60
USD_millions
derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_royalty, upside_2027q4_royalty_margin).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside171.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_advanced_gp, upside_2027q4_brick_gp, upside_2027q4_royalty_gp).
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q4_operating_expense
2027Q4 / upside56.50
USD_millions
assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline.
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside114.50
USD_millions
derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_operating_expense).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net cash interest income
upside_2027q4_interest_cash
2027Q4 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating cash before tax and working capital
upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / upside131.00
USD_millions
derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_interest_cash).
Sequential revenue change
upside_2027q4_revenue_change
2027Q4 / upside23.00
USD_millions
derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue).
Working capital / incremental revenue
upside_2027q4_wc_rate
2027Q4 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tied to incremental revenue
upside_2027q4_growth_wc
2027Q4 / upside2.30
USD_millions
derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue_change, upside_2027q4_wc_rate).
Inventory investment ahead of capacity
upside_2027q4_capacity_inventory
2027Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net working capital use
upside_2027q4_working_capital_use
2027Q4 / upside6.30
USD_millions
derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_growth_wc, upside_2027q4_capacity_inventory).
Cash tax / operating income
upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate
2027Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ordinary cash tax proxy
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside20.61
USD_millions
derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate).
Prior litigation cash settlements
upside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk.
Operating cash uses
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside26.91
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_working_capital_use, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside104.09
USD_millions
derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
PP&E and internal-use software cash
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted.
Cash after combined asset purchases
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside56.09
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside596.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_advanced
FY2026 / upside285.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_brick
FY2026 / upside203.24
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_royalty
FY2026 / upside107.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, upside_2026q3_royalty, upside_2026q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside353.64
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside160.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside135.23
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside73.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside61.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Product and royalty revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside959.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Advanced physical-product revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_advanced
FY2027 / upside580.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced).
Brick Products revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_brick
FY2027 / upside231.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q4_brick).
Royalty revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_royalty
FY2027 / upside148.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_royalty, upside_2027q2_royalty, upside_2027q3_royalty, upside_2027q4_royalty).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside593.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside376.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside345.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside177.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less combined asset purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside168.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).

Model boundaries

Separate physical power demand from royalties and tax windfalls

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can recurring product and licensing cash finance the next manufacturing ramp?

Q2 revenue of $143.352M comprised $112.926M physical products and $30.426M royalties. Reported Advanced Products of $94.161M includes those royalties, leaving $63.735M physical Advanced sales plus $49.191M Brick sales. GAAP operating income was $34.878M. Net income benefited from a $10.863M tax benefit driven primarily by excess share-compensation deductions. H1 CFO of $30.197M included a $28.557M litigation payment; $23.560M PP&E/internal-use software cash left $6.637M. Employee option proceeds supplied a separate $44.224M financing inflow. June cash was $453.582M and backlog about $380M. The August $150M repurchase authorization replaces the old program and is not assumed executed. Q2 2025 revenue included a $45M settlement, which must be separated for comparison.

The competing explanation

AI-related power demand does not automatically ensure manufacturing yields or attractive returns on capacity. Royalties may be uneven, litigation can consume cash, and the unusually favorable tax line is not a recurring operating margin. A growing backlog can still leave weak free cash flow if inventory and factory spending lead collections.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Replaces the skeleton with product/licensing drivers, normalized cash-tax assumptions and capacity spending; adds the filed June quarter to history.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed strong, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.9+0.3+4.358%
5 sessions-6.0+0.6+8.056%
10 sessions-8.8+1.2+10.258%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

Scorecard: 1 note scored

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/vicr-unnamed-oem-license-20260916): next quarterly report, typically late October; the second-quarter print was July 21

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  2. [2] derived: Revenues, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  4. [4] reported: Revenues, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  5. [5] reported: Product revenue plus royalty revenue; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  7. [7] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  9. [9] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  10. [10] reported: Gross profit; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  12. [12] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  13. [13] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  14. [14] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  15. [15] reported: Income from operations; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  17. [17] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  18. [18] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  19. [19] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  20. [20] reported: Net income attributable to Vicor Corporation; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  21. [21] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  22. [22] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  23. [23] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  24. [24] reported: Diluted earnings per common share, both classes; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  25. [25] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  26. [26] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  27. [27] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0000950170-24-118784, 10-Q filed 2024-10-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  30. [30] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0000950170-25-060629, 10-Q filed 2025-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  31. [31] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  32. [32] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  33. [33] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  34. [34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  36. [36] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  37. [37] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  38. [38] derived: H1 CFO 30.197M minus Q1 CFO -3.942M; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  39. [39] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  40. [40] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  41. [41] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  42. [42] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  43. [43] derived: H1 combined PP&E/software 23.560M minus Q1 12.387M; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm
  44. [44] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2025-10-29] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2025-10-29], accession 0001193125-25-256259, 10-Q filed 2025-10-29; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  45. [45] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2026-03-02] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2026-03-02], accession 0001193125-26-085102, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  46. [46] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2026-04-30] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2026-04-30], accession 0001193125-26-194947, 10-Q filed 2026-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  47. [47] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2025-08-01] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json; filed 2025-08-01], accession 0000950170-25-101161, 10-Q filed 2025-08-01; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:50:24+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000751978.json
  48. [48] derived: CFO - capex; H1 CFO 30.197M minus Q1 CFO -3.942M [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm; filed 2026-07-29] ; H1 combined PP&E/software 23.560M minus Q1 12.387M [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm; filed 2026-07-29]; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751978/000119312526322462/vicr-20260630.htm

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T20:50:25.185026+00:00 · authored c32cc2212e5a · generated 87a0db8f7c07 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard