$VICR
Business
Vicor designs and manufactures power-conversion modules and licenses its intellectual property. Advanced Products serve demanding power-delivery applications, while Brick Products provide a mature industrial product base. Product volume, manufacturing yield and capacity utilization drive factory economics. Royalties offer different margins and cash timing, and patent litigation can introduce large nonrecurring receipts and payments.
Three drivers
- Advanced power-module shipments and factory yield
- Brick demand and licensing revenue composition
- Capacity spending, litigation cash and working capital
Thesis
Our view
Vicor can benefit from more demanding power-delivery requirements if Advanced Products scale at improving manufacturing margins. Royalties add attractive economics, but they must be separated from physical sales and patent settlements. The investment question is whether recurring operating cash can finance capacity without relying on stock-option proceeds or tax windfalls.
What changes it
Watch Advanced Products excluding royalties, manufacturing margins, delivery conversion and cash after capacity spending. Reassess if royalty recurrence is clarified, backlog fails to ship, or new capacity requires materially more cash than the desk allowance.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 93.21 | 96.2†2 | 94.03 | 141.04 | 110.41 | 107.3†2 | 113.03 | 143.45 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 45.76 | 50.4†7 | 44.48 | 92.19 | 63.56 | 59.4†7 | 62.48 | 83.110 |
| Operating income ($M) | 5.411 | 9.2†12 | -0.113 | 45.414 | 20.911 | 15.7†12 | 16.913 | 34.915 |
| Net income ($M) | 11.616 | 10.2†17 | 2.518 | 41.219 | 28.316 | 46.5†17 | 20.718 | 49.820 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | 0.2621 | — | 0.0622 | 0.9123 | 0.6321 | — | 0.4422 | 1.0424 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 45.225 | — | 45.526 | 45.127 | 44.925 | — | 47.326 | — |
| Cash ($M) | 267.628 | 277.329 | 296.130 | 338.531 | 362.432 | 402.833 | 404.233 | — |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 22.6†34 | 10.1†35 | 20.136 | 65.2†37 | 38.5†34 | 15.7†35 | -3.936 | 34.1†38 |
| Capex ($M) | 8.5†39 | 1.7†40 | 4.541 | 6.2†42 | 4.0†39 | 5.5†40 | 12.441 | 11.2†43 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 14.1†44 | 8.4†45 | 15.6†46 | 59.0†47 | 34.5†44 | 10.2†45 | -16.3†46 | 23.0†48 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 143.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 155.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 172.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 189.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Product and royalty revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Power-module production and licensing must fund capacity
Separate Advanced Products physical revenue, Brick Products and royalties. Keep the prior-year litigation settlement in reported history but never use it as recurring forward sales. Forecast physical-business growth and manufacturing margins independently from the royalty path. Translate GAAP operating income into cash using depreciation, equity compensation, ordinary cash taxes and working-capital investment, then deduct combined PP&E/internal-use software cash. FY2026 includes actual H1; FY2027 is the sum of four explicit desk quarters.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 Advanced physical-product revenue | 2026Q2 | 63.73 | derived. Separates product sales from the reported Advanced Products including licensing. |
| q2 brick | June 2026 | 49.19 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 royalty | June 2026 | 30.43 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 revenue | June 2026 | 143.35 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 gross profit | June 2026 | 83.12 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 operating income | June 2026 | 34.88 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 tax benefit | June 2026 | 10.86 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 cfo | H1 2026 | 30.20 | reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 litigation cash | H1 2026 | 28.56 | reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 capex | H1 2026 | 23.56 | reported. Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 cash after asset purchases | H1 2026 | 6.64 | derived. Combined PP&E and internal-use software scope. |
| cash | June 2026 | 453.58 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| backlog | June 2026 | 380.00 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-21 |
| capex commitments | June 2026 | 22.75 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| option proceeds | June 2026 | 44.22 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
| Replacement buyback authorization | August 25, 2026 | 150.00 | reported. Replaces previous authorization; not additional executed cash spending. Source · 2026-08-27 |
| prior year settlement | June 2026 | 45.00 | reported. June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Source · 2026-07-29 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) | Brick Products revenue ($M) | PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) | Product and royalty revenue ($M) | Royalty revenue ($M) | Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 16.84 | -8.16 | 47.00 | 25.00 | 124.00 | 15.00 | 62.00 | 58.58 | 9.58 |
| 2026Q4 | 13.37 | -16.63 | 46.00 | 30.00 | 126.00 | 15.00 | 65.00 | 59.81 | 9.31 |
| 2027Q1 | 14.30 | -25.70 | 44.00 | 40.00 | 128.00 | 16.00 | 68.00 | 61.70 | 9.70 |
| 2027Q2 | 16.03 | -28.97 | 44.00 | 45.00 | 135.00 | 17.00 | 74.00 | 65.68 | 12.18 |
| FY2026 | 60.41 | -18.15 | 190.24 | 78.56 | 506.32 | 75.39 | 240.69 | 263.88 | 70.65 |
| FY2027 | 69.89 | -105.11 | 179.00 | 175.00 | 554.00 | 69.00 | 306.00 | 269.99 | 52.99 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) | Brick Products revenue ($M) | PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) | Product and royalty revenue ($M) | Royalty revenue ($M) | Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 34.10 | 14.10 | 50.00 | 20.00 | 143.00 | 23.00 | 70.00 | 79.17 | 31.17 |
| 2026Q4 | 37.66 | 12.66 | 51.00 | 25.00 | 155.00 | 24.00 | 80.00 | 86.08 | 36.58 |
| 2027Q1 | 44.81 | 9.81 | 51.00 | 35.00 | 172.00 | 26.00 | 95.00 | 96.30 | 45.30 |
| 2027Q2 | 52.17 | 12.17 | 52.00 | 40.00 | 189.00 | 27.00 | 110.00 | 106.05 | 53.55 |
| FY2026 | 101.95 | 33.39 | 198.24 | 68.56 | 554.32 | 92.39 | 263.69 | 310.74 | 119.51 |
| FY2027 | 222.19 | 57.19 | 210.00 | 165.00 | 785.00 | 110.00 | 465.00 | 441.48 | 228.48 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) | Brick Products revenue ($M) | PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) | Product and royalty revenue ($M) | Royalty revenue ($M) | Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 47.87 | 25.87 | 52.00 | 22.00 | 160.00 | 30.00 | 78.00 | 97.82 | 48.82 |
| 2026Q4 | 57.17 | 29.17 | 54.00 | 28.00 | 180.00 | 32.00 | 94.00 | 110.34 | 59.84 |
| 2027Q1 | 68.55 | 30.55 | 55.00 | 38.00 | 204.00 | 34.00 | 115.00 | 125.48 | 73.48 |
| 2027Q2 | 80.35 | 37.35 | 57.00 | 43.00 | 228.00 | 36.00 | 135.00 | 140.64 | 87.14 |
| FY2026 | 135.23 | 61.67 | 203.24 | 73.56 | 596.32 | 107.39 | 285.69 | 353.64 | 160.42 |
| FY2027 | 345.29 | 168.29 | 231.00 | 177.00 | 959.00 | 148.00 | 580.00 | 593.08 | 376.08 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 256.32 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 brick h1_brick | H1 2026 / shared | 97.24 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 royalty h1_royalty | H1 2026 / shared | 45.39 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 gross profit h1_gross_profit | H1 2026 / shared | 145.49 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | 51.76 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | 30.20 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 23.56 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 litigation cash h1_litigation_cash | H1 2026 / shared | 28.56 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 da h1_da | H1 2026 / shared | 10.76 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 sbc h1_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 8.03 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 tax benefit h1_tax_benefit | H1 2026 / shared | 11.14 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 deferred tax benefit h1_deferred_tax_benefit | H1 2026 / shared | 11.29 USD_millions | reported: Reported H1 consolidated cash or operating amount. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 reported Advanced Products including royalties h1_advanced_including_royalties | H1 2026 / shared | 159.08 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| H1 Advanced physical-product revenue h1_advanced | H1 2026 / shared | 113.69 USD_millions | derived: Remove licensing revenue before modeling product demand. Formula: subtract(h1_advanced_including_royalties, h1_royalty). |
| H1 cash after asset purchases h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | 6.64 USD_millions | derived: Combined PP&E and internal-use software scope. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| q2 revenue q2_revenue | June 2026 / shared | 143.35 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 advanced including royalties q2_advanced_including_royalties | June 2026 / shared | 94.16 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 brick q2_brick | June 2026 / shared | 49.19 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 royalty q2_royalty | June 2026 / shared | 30.43 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 gross profit q2_gross_profit | June 2026 / shared | 83.12 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 operating income q2_operating_income | June 2026 / shared | 34.88 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| q2 tax benefit q2_tax_benefit | June 2026 / shared | 10.86 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| cash cash | June 2026 / shared | 453.58 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| backlog backlog | June 2026 / shared | 380.00 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-21 |
| capex commitments capex_commitments | June 2026 / shared | 22.75 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| option proceeds option_proceeds | June 2026 / shared | 44.22 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| prior year settlement prior_year_settlement | June 2026 / shared | 45.00 USD_millions | reported: June 30 or Q2 amount, except H1 option exercise cash and Q2 2025 settlement. Backlog is rounded company disclosure, not annual revenue guidance. Primary source · 2026-07-29 |
| Q2 Advanced physical-product revenue q2_advanced | 2026Q2 / shared | 63.73 USD_millions | derived: Separates product sales from the reported Advanced Products including licensing. Formula: subtract(q2_advanced_including_royalties, q2_royalty). |
| Replacement buyback authorization buyback_authorized | August 25, 2026 / shared | 150.00 USD_millions | reported: Replaces previous authorization; not additional executed cash spending. Primary source · 2026-08-27 |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2026q3_advanced_shipments | 2026Q3 / downside | 97.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2026q3_advanced | 2026Q3 / downside | 62.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2026q3_brick_shipments | 2026Q3 / downside | 95.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2026q3_brick | 2026Q3 / downside | 47.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2026q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2026q3_royalty | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 124.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2026q3_advanced_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2026q3_advanced_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | 27.28 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2026q3_brick_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2026q3_brick_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | 16.45 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2026q3_royalty_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2026q3_royalty_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | 14.85 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_royalty, downside_2026q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | 58.58 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_advanced_gp, downside_2026q3_brick_gp, downside_2026q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2026q3_operating_expense | 2026Q3 / downside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 9.58 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2026q3_interest_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / downside | 23.08 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2026q3_revenue_change | 2026Q3 / downside | -19.35 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2026q3_growth_wc | 2026Q3 / downside | -3.48 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue_change, downside_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2026q3_capacity_inventory | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 4.52 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_growth_wc, downside_2026q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 1.72 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 6.24 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_working_capital_use, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | 16.84 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | -8.16 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2026q4_advanced_shipments | 2026Q4 / downside | 102.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2026q4_advanced | 2026Q4 / downside | 65.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2026q4_brick_shipments | 2026Q4 / downside | 93.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2026q4_brick | 2026Q4 / downside | 46.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2026q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2026q4_royalty | 2026Q4 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 126.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_advanced, downside_2026q4_brick, downside_2026q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2026q4_advanced_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 44.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2026q4_advanced_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | 28.86 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2026q4_brick_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2026q4_brick_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_brick, downside_2026q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2026q4_royalty_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2026q4_royalty_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | 14.85 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_royalty, downside_2026q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 59.81 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_advanced_gp, downside_2026q4_brick_gp, downside_2026q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2026q4_operating_expense | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.31 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 6.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 4.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2026q4_interest_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / downside | 23.41 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2026q4_revenue_change | 2026Q4 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2026q4_growth_wc | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.36 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue_change, downside_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2026q4_capacity_inventory | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.36 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_growth_wc, downside_2026q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 1.68 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 10.04 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_working_capital_use, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.37 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | -16.63 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q1_advanced_shipments | 2027Q1 / downside | 106.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2027q1_advanced | 2027Q1 / downside | 68.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q1_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q1_brick_shipments | 2027Q1 / downside | 89.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2027q1_brick | 2027Q1 / downside | 44.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q1_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2027q1_royalty | 2027Q1 / downside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 128.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q1_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2027q1_advanced_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 44.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2027q1_advanced_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | 30.46 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q1_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2027q1_brick_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2027q1_brick_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q1_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2027q1_royalty_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2027q1_royalty_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.84 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_royalty, downside_2027q1_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 61.70 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced_gp, downside_2027q1_brick_gp, downside_2027q1_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2027q1_operating_expense | 2027Q1 / downside | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.70 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 4.70 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q1_interest_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / downside | 24.40 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2027q1_revenue_change | 2027Q1 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2027q1_growth_wc | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.36 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue_change, downside_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2027q1_capacity_inventory | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.36 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_growth_wc, downside_2027q1_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 1.75 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.11 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_working_capital_use, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 14.30 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -25.70 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q2_advanced_shipments | 2027Q2 / downside | 116.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2027q2_advanced | 2027Q2 / downside | 74.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q2_brick_shipments | 2027Q2 / downside | 89.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2027q2_brick | 2027Q2 / downside | 44.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q2_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2027q2_royalty | 2027Q2 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 135.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q2_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2027q2_advanced_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 45.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2027q2_advanced_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | 33.45 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2027q2_brick_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2027q2_brick_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | 15.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q2_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2027q2_royalty_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2027q2_royalty_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | 16.83 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_royalty, downside_2027q2_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 65.68 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_advanced_gp, downside_2027q2_brick_gp, downside_2027q2_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2027q2_operating_expense | 2027Q2 / downside | 53.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.18 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 7.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 4.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q2_interest_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / downside | 27.48 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2027q2_revenue_change | 2027Q2 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q1_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2027q2_growth_wc | 2027Q2 / downside | 1.26 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue_change, downside_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2027q2_capacity_inventory | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 9.26 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_growth_wc, downside_2027q2_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 2.19 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 11.45 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_working_capital_use, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 16.03 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -28.97 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q3_advanced_shipments | 2027Q3 / downside | 125.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2027q3_advanced | 2027Q3 / downside | 80.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q3_brick_shipments | 2027Q3 / downside | 91.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2027q3_brick | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2027q3_royalty | 2027Q3 / downside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 143.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2027q3_advanced_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2027q3_advanced_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | 36.48 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2027q3_brick_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2027q3_brick_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | 15.75 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2027q3_royalty_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2027q3_royalty_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | 17.82 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_royalty, downside_2027q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 70.05 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_advanced_gp, downside_2027q3_brick_gp, downside_2027q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2027q3_operating_expense | 2027Q3 / downside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 15.05 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 4.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q3_interest_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / downside | 30.95 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2027q3_revenue_change | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2027q3_growth_wc | 2027Q3 / downside | 1.44 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue_change, downside_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2027q3_capacity_inventory | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 9.44 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_growth_wc, downside_2027q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 2.71 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.15 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_working_capital_use, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 18.80 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -26.20 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q4_advanced_shipments | 2027Q4 / downside | 131.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue downside_2027q4_advanced | 2027Q4 / downside | 84.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference downside_2027q4_brick_shipments | 2027Q4 / downside | 93.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue downside_2027q4_brick | 2027Q4 / downside | 46.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, downside_2027q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue downside_2027q4_royalty | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 148.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_advanced, downside_2027q4_brick, downside_2027q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin downside_2027q4_advanced_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 46.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit downside_2027q4_advanced_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | 38.64 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin downside_2027q4_brick_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit downside_2027q4_brick_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_brick, downside_2027q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin downside_2027q4_royalty_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit downside_2027q4_royalty_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | 17.82 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_royalty, downside_2027q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 72.56 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_advanced_gp, downside_2027q4_brick_gp, downside_2027q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense downside_2027q4_operating_expense | 2027Q4 / downside | 56.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 16.06 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q4_interest_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / downside | 32.56 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change downside_2027q4_revenue_change | 2027Q4 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue downside_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue downside_2027q4_growth_wc | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.90 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue_change, downside_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity downside_2027q4_capacity_inventory | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use downside_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.90 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_growth_wc, downside_2027q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 2.89 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements downside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses downside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 11.79 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_working_capital_use, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 20.77 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | -24.23 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 506.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_advanced | FY2026 / downside | 240.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, downside_2026q3_advanced, downside_2026q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_brick | FY2026 / downside | 190.24 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, downside_2026q3_brick, downside_2026q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_royalty | FY2026 / downside | 75.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, downside_2026q3_royalty, downside_2026q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 263.88 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 70.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 60.41 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 78.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | -18.15 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 554.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_advanced | FY2027 / downside | 306.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_advanced, downside_2027q2_advanced, downside_2027q3_advanced, downside_2027q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_brick | FY2027 / downside | 179.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_brick, downside_2027q2_brick, downside_2027q3_brick, downside_2027q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_royalty | FY2027 / downside | 69.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_royalty, downside_2027q2_royalty, downside_2027q3_royalty, downside_2027q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 269.99 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 52.99 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 69.89 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 175.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | -105.11 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2026q3_advanced_shipments | 2026Q3 / base | 109.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2026q3_advanced | 2026Q3 / base | 70.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2026q3_brick_shipments | 2026Q3 / base | 101.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2026q3_brick | 2026Q3 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2026q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2026q3_royalty | 2026Q3 / base | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 143.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2026q3_advanced_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 52.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2026q3_advanced_gp | 2026Q3 / base | 36.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2026q3_brick_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2026q3_brick_gp | 2026Q3 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2026q3_royalty_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2026q3_royalty_gp | 2026Q3 / base | 22.77 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_royalty, base_2026q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 79.17 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_advanced_gp, base_2026q3_brick_gp, base_2026q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2026q3_operating_expense | 2026Q3 / base | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | 31.17 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2026q3_interest_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / base | 44.67 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2026q3_revenue_change | 2026Q3 / base | -0.35 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2026q3_growth_wc | 2026Q3 / base | -0.04 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue_change, base_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2026q3_capacity_inventory | 2026Q3 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / base | 4.96 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_growth_wc, base_2026q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 5.61 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 10.57 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_working_capital_use, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 34.10 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_before_wc, base_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | 14.10 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2026q4_advanced_shipments | 2026Q4 / base | 125.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2026q4_advanced | 2026Q4 / base | 80.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2026q4_brick_shipments | 2026Q4 / base | 103.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2026q4_brick | 2026Q4 / base | 51.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2026q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2026q4_royalty | 2026Q4 / base | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 155.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_advanced, base_2026q4_brick, base_2026q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2026q4_advanced_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 52.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2026q4_advanced_gp | 2026Q4 / base | 41.92 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2026q4_brick_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2026q4_brick_gp | 2026Q4 / base | 20.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_brick, base_2026q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2026q4_royalty_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2026q4_royalty_gp | 2026Q4 / base | 23.76 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_royalty, base_2026q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 86.08 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_advanced_gp, base_2026q4_brick_gp, base_2026q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2026q4_operating_expense | 2026Q4 / base | 49.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 36.58 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 6.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 4.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2026q4_interest_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / base | 50.68 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2026q4_revenue_change | 2026Q4 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2026q4_growth_wc | 2026Q4 / base | 1.44 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue_change, base_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2026q4_capacity_inventory | 2026Q4 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / base | 6.44 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_growth_wc, base_2026q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 6.58 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 13.02 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_working_capital_use, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 37.66 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_before_wc, base_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 12.66 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q1_advanced_shipments | 2027Q1 / base | 149.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2027q1_advanced | 2027Q1 / base | 95.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q1_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q1_brick_shipments | 2027Q1 / base | 103.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2027q1_brick | 2027Q1 / base | 51.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q1_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2027q1_royalty | 2027Q1 / base | 26.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 172.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q1_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2027q1_advanced_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 52.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2027q1_advanced_gp | 2027Q1 / base | 50.16 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q1_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2027q1_brick_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2027q1_brick_gp | 2027Q1 / base | 20.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q1_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2027q1_royalty_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2027q1_royalty_gp | 2027Q1 / base | 25.74 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_royalty, base_2027q1_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 96.30 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced_gp, base_2027q1_brick_gp, base_2027q1_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2027q1_operating_expense | 2027Q1 / base | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 45.30 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 4.70 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q1_interest_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / base | 60.00 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2027q1_revenue_change | 2027Q1 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2027q1_growth_wc | 2027Q1 / base | 2.04 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue_change, base_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2027q1_capacity_inventory | 2027Q1 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / base | 7.04 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_growth_wc, base_2027q1_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 8.15 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 15.19 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_working_capital_use, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 44.81 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_before_wc, base_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 9.81 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q2_advanced_shipments | 2027Q2 / base | 172.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2027q2_advanced | 2027Q2 / base | 110.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q2_brick_shipments | 2027Q2 / base | 105.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2027q2_brick | 2027Q2 / base | 52.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q2_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2027q2_royalty | 2027Q2 / base | 27.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 189.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q2_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2027q2_advanced_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 53.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2027q2_advanced_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 58.52 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2027q2_brick_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2027q2_brick_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 20.80 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q2_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2027q2_royalty_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2027q2_royalty_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 26.73 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_royalty, base_2027q2_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 106.05 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_advanced_gp, base_2027q2_brick_gp, base_2027q2_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2027q2_operating_expense | 2027Q2 / base | 52.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 53.55 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 7.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 4.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q2_interest_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / base | 68.85 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2027q2_revenue_change | 2027Q2 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q1_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2027q2_growth_wc | 2027Q2 / base | 2.04 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue_change, base_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2027q2_capacity_inventory | 2027Q2 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / base | 7.04 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_growth_wc, base_2027q2_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 9.64 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 16.68 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_working_capital_use, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 52.17 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_before_wc, base_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 12.17 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q3_advanced_shipments | 2027Q3 / base | 196.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2027q3_advanced | 2027Q3 / base | 125.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q3_brick_shipments | 2027Q3 / base | 107.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2027q3_brick | 2027Q3 / base | 53.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2027q3_royalty | 2027Q3 / base | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 206.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2027q3_advanced_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 53.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2027q3_advanced_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 67.00 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2027q3_brick_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2027q3_brick_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 21.20 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2027q3_royalty_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2027q3_royalty_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 27.72 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_royalty, base_2027q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 115.92 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_advanced_gp, base_2027q3_brick_gp, base_2027q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2027q3_operating_expense | 2027Q3 / base | 54.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 61.92 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 4.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q3_interest_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / base | 77.82 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2027q3_revenue_change | 2027Q3 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2027q3_growth_wc | 2027Q3 / base | 2.04 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue_change, base_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2027q3_capacity_inventory | 2027Q3 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / base | 7.04 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_growth_wc, base_2027q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 11.15 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 18.19 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_working_capital_use, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 59.63 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 14.63 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q4_advanced_shipments | 2027Q4 / base | 211.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue base_2027q4_advanced | 2027Q4 / base | 135.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference base_2027q4_brick_shipments | 2027Q4 / base | 109.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue base_2027q4_brick | 2027Q4 / base | 54.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, base_2027q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue base_2027q4_royalty | 2027Q4 / base | 29.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 218.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_advanced, base_2027q4_brick, base_2027q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin base_2027q4_advanced_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 54.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit base_2027q4_advanced_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 72.90 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin base_2027q4_brick_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit base_2027q4_brick_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 21.60 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_brick, base_2027q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin base_2027q4_royalty_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit base_2027q4_royalty_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 28.71 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_royalty, base_2027q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 123.21 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_advanced_gp, base_2027q4_brick_gp, base_2027q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense base_2027q4_operating_expense | 2027Q4 / base | 55.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 67.71 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 8.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q4_interest_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital base_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / base | 84.21 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change base_2027q4_revenue_change | 2027Q4 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue base_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue base_2027q4_growth_wc | 2027Q4 / base | 1.44 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue_change, base_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity base_2027q4_capacity_inventory | 2027Q4 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use base_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / base | 6.44 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_growth_wc, base_2027q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 12.19 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements base_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses base_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 18.63 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_working_capital_use, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 65.58 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 20.58 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 554.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) base_fy2026_advanced | FY2026 / base | 263.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, base_2026q3_advanced, base_2026q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) base_fy2026_brick | FY2026 / base | 198.24 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, base_2026q3_brick, base_2026q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) base_fy2026_royalty | FY2026 / base | 92.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, base_2026q3_royalty, base_2026q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 310.74 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 119.51 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 101.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 68.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 33.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 785.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) base_fy2027_advanced | FY2027 / base | 465.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_advanced, base_2027q2_advanced, base_2027q3_advanced, base_2027q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) base_fy2027_brick | FY2027 / base | 210.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_brick, base_2027q2_brick, base_2027q3_brick, base_2027q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) base_fy2027_royalty | FY2027 / base | 110.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_royalty, base_2027q2_royalty, base_2027q3_royalty, base_2027q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 441.48 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 228.48 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 222.19 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 165.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 57.19 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2026q3_advanced_shipments | 2026Q3 / upside | 122.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2026q3_advanced | 2026Q3 / upside | 78.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2026q3_brick_shipments | 2026Q3 / upside | 105.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2026q3_brick | 2026Q3 / upside | 52.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2026q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2026q3_royalty | 2026Q3 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2026q3_advanced_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 58.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2026q3_advanced_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.24 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2026q3_brick_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2026q3_brick_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | 22.88 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2026q3_royalty_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2026q3_royalty_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | 29.70 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_royalty, upside_2026q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 97.82 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_advanced_gp, upside_2026q3_brick_gp, upside_2026q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2026q3_operating_expense | 2026Q3 / upside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 48.82 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2026q3_interest_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc | 2026Q3 / upside | 62.32 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2026q3_revenue_change | 2026Q3 / upside | 16.65 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2026q3_wc_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2026q3_growth_wc | 2026Q3 / upside | 1.66 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue_change, upside_2026q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2026q3_capacity_inventory | 2026Q3 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2026q3_working_capital_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 5.66 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_growth_wc, upside_2026q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 8.79 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 14.45 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_working_capital_use, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 47.87 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 22.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.87 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2026q4_advanced_shipments | 2026Q4 / upside | 147.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2026q4_advanced | 2026Q4 / upside | 94.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2026q4_brick_shipments | 2026Q4 / upside | 109.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2026q4_brick | 2026Q4 / upside | 54.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2026q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2026q4_royalty | 2026Q4 / upside | 32.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_advanced, upside_2026q4_brick, upside_2026q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2026q4_advanced_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 58.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2026q4_advanced_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | 54.90 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2026q4_brick_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2026q4_brick_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | 23.76 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_brick, upside_2026q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2026q4_royalty_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2026q4_royalty_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | 31.68 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_royalty, upside_2026q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 110.34 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_advanced_gp, upside_2026q4_brick_gp, upside_2026q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2026q4_operating_expense | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 59.84 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 6.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 4.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2026q4_interest_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc | 2026Q4 / upside | 73.94 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2026q4_revenue_change | 2026Q4 / upside | 20.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2026q4_wc_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2026q4_growth_wc | 2026Q4 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue_change, upside_2026q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2026q4_capacity_inventory | 2026Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2026q4_working_capital_use | 2026Q4 / upside | 6.00 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_growth_wc, upside_2026q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.77 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 16.77 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_working_capital_use, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 57.17 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 29.17 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q1_advanced_shipments | 2027Q1 / upside | 180.4% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2027q1_advanced | 2027Q1 / upside | 115.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q1_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q1_brick_shipments | 2027Q1 / upside | 111.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2027q1_brick | 2027Q1 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q1_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2027q1_royalty | 2027Q1 / upside | 34.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 204.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q1_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2027q1_advanced_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 58.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2027q1_advanced_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 67.62 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q1_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2027q1_brick_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2027q1_brick_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 24.20 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q1_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2027q1_royalty_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2027q1_royalty_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 33.66 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_royalty, upside_2027q1_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 125.48 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced_gp, upside_2027q1_brick_gp, upside_2027q1_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2027q1_operating_expense | 2027Q1 / upside | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 73.48 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 4.70 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q1_interest_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc | 2027Q1 / upside | 88.18 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2027q1_revenue_change | 2027Q1 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2027q1_wc_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2027q1_growth_wc | 2027Q1 / upside | 2.40 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue_change, upside_2027q1_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2027q1_capacity_inventory | 2027Q1 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2027q1_working_capital_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 6.40 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_growth_wc, upside_2027q1_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 13.23 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 19.63 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_working_capital_use, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 68.55 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 38.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 30.55 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q2_advanced_shipments | 2027Q2 / upside | 211.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2027q2_advanced | 2027Q2 / upside | 135.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q2_brick_shipments | 2027Q2 / upside | 115.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2027q2_brick | 2027Q2 / upside | 57.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q2_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2027q2_royalty | 2027Q2 / upside | 36.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 228.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q2_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2027q2_advanced_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 59.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2027q2_advanced_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 79.92 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2027q2_brick_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2027q2_brick_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.08 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q2_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2027q2_royalty_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2027q2_royalty_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 35.64 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_royalty, upside_2027q2_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 140.64 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_advanced_gp, upside_2027q2_brick_gp, upside_2027q2_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2027q2_operating_expense | 2027Q2 / upside | 53.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 87.14 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 7.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 4.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q2_interest_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc | 2027Q2 / upside | 102.44 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2027q2_revenue_change | 2027Q2 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q1_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2027q2_wc_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2027q2_growth_wc | 2027Q2 / upside | 2.40 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue_change, upside_2027q2_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2027q2_capacity_inventory | 2027Q2 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2027q2_working_capital_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 6.40 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_growth_wc, upside_2027q2_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 15.69 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 22.09 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_working_capital_use, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 80.35 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 43.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 37.35 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q3_advanced_shipments | 2027Q3 / upside | 243.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2027q3_advanced | 2027Q3 / upside | 155.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q3_brick_shipments | 2027Q3 / upside | 119.9% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2027q3_brick | 2027Q3 / upside | 59.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q3_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2027q3_royalty | 2027Q3 / upside | 38.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 252.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q3_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2027q3_advanced_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 59.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2027q3_advanced_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 92.38 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2027q3_brick_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2027q3_brick_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.96 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q3_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2027q3_royalty_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2027q3_royalty_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 37.62 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_royalty, upside_2027q3_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 155.96 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_advanced_gp, upside_2027q3_brick_gp, upside_2027q3_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2027q3_operating_expense | 2027Q3 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 100.96 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 4.90 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q3_interest_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc | 2027Q3 / upside | 116.86 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2027q3_revenue_change | 2027Q3 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2027q3_wc_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2027q3_growth_wc | 2027Q3 / upside | 2.40 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue_change, upside_2027q3_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2027q3_capacity_inventory | 2027Q3 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2027q3_working_capital_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 6.40 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_growth_wc, upside_2027q3_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 18.17 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 24.57 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_working_capital_use, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 92.29 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 44.29 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Advanced shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q4_advanced_shipments | 2027Q4 / upside | 274.6% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Advanced physical-product revenue upside_2027q4_advanced | 2027Q4 / upside | 175.00 USD_millions | derived: Reference physical revenue times shipment/mix sensitivity; excludes royalties. Formula: multiply(q2_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced_shipments). |
| Brick shipments / Q2 reference upside_2027q4_brick_shipments | 2027Q4 / upside | 122.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Brick Products revenue upside_2027q4_brick | 2027Q4 / upside | 60.00 USD_millions | derived: Mature product-business demand sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q2_brick, upside_2027q4_brick_shipments). |
| Royalty revenue upside_2027q4_royalty | 2027Q4 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Independent licensing assumption; recurring/catch-up mix of Q2 royalties is not publicly quantified. |
| Product and royalty revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 275.00 USD_millions | derived: Three nonoverlapping revenue components; no hypothetical litigation settlement. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_advanced, upside_2027q4_brick, upside_2027q4_royalty). |
| advanced gross margin upside_2027q4_advanced_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 60.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| advanced gross profit upside_2027q4_advanced_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 105.00 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced_margin). |
| brick gross margin upside_2027q4_brick_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| brick gross profit upside_2027q4_brick_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 26.40 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_brick, upside_2027q4_brick_margin). |
| royalty gross margin upside_2027q4_royalty_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| royalty gross profit upside_2027q4_royalty_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 39.60 USD_millions | derived: Manufacturing margin includes normal depreciation and SBC; licensing litigation expenses remain in operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_royalty, upside_2027q4_royalty_margin). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 171.00 USD_millions | derived: Independent business gross-profit contributions. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_advanced_gp, upside_2027q4_brick_gp, upside_2027q4_royalty_gp). |
| GAAP operating expense upside_2027q4_operating_expense | 2027Q4 / upside | 56.50 USD_millions | assumption: Includes R&D, selling expense, ordinary litigation expense and operating SBC; no excluded-cost adjusted headline. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 114.50 USD_millions | derived: No separate one-time settlement or tax benefit boosts operating earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_operating_expense). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 8.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q4_interest_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating cash before tax and working capital upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc | 2027Q4 / upside | 131.00 USD_millions | derived: Adds back noncash operating expense once; employee option exercise proceeds are financing cash, excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_interest_cash). |
| Sequential revenue change upside_2027q4_revenue_change | 2027Q4 / upside | 23.00 USD_millions | derived: Used only for working-capital sensitivity; not a backlog rollforward. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue). |
| Working capital / incremental revenue upside_2027q4_wc_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash tied to incremental revenue upside_2027q4_growth_wc | 2027Q4 / upside | 2.30 USD_millions | derived: Receivable and payable timing proxy; negative sales growth releases this modeled component. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue_change, upside_2027q4_wc_rate). |
| Inventory investment ahead of capacity upside_2027q4_capacity_inventory | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net working capital use upside_2027q4_working_capital_use | 2027Q4 / upside | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Adds explicit factory inventory funding independent of sales changes. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_growth_wc, upside_2027q4_capacity_inventory). |
| Cash tax / operating income upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Ordinary cash tax proxy upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 20.61 USD_millions | derived: Positive modeled operating earnings; no repeat excess-share-compensation tax benefit. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_cash_tax_rate). |
| Prior litigation cash settlements upside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: No incremental legacy payment assumed after disclosed H1 cash payment; future adverse judgments are unmodeled risk. |
| Operating cash uses upside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 26.91 USD_millions | derived: Ordinary litigation spending is already in expense; this line only covers prior-reserve payments. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_working_capital_use, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_prior_litigation_cash). |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 104.09 USD_millions | derived: Does not treat option exercise proceeds or securities as operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capacity-investment allowance inclusive of outstanding equipment commitments; no disclosed firm second-fab budget asserted. |
| Cash after combined asset purchases upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 56.09 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary buybacks and other financing. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 596.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_advanced | FY2026 / upside | 285.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_advanced, upside_2026q3_advanced, upside_2026q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_brick | FY2026 / upside | 203.24 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_brick, upside_2026q3_brick, upside_2026q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_royalty | FY2026 / upside | 107.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_royalty, upside_2026q3_royalty, upside_2026q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 353.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 160.42 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 135.23 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 73.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 61.67 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Product and royalty revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 959.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advanced physical-product revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_advanced | FY2027 / upside | 580.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_advanced, upside_2027q2_advanced, upside_2027q3_advanced, upside_2027q4_advanced). |
| Brick Products revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_brick | FY2027 / upside | 231.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_brick, upside_2027q2_brick, upside_2027q3_brick, upside_2027q4_brick). |
| Royalty revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_royalty | FY2027 / upside | 148.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_royalty, upside_2027q2_royalty, upside_2027q3_royalty, upside_2027q4_royalty). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 593.08 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 376.08 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 345.29 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| PP&E and internal-use software cash ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 177.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less combined asset purchases ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 168.29 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
Model boundaries
- Q2 Advanced Products reporting includes royalties. The model subtracts royalties before forecasting physical Advanced Products, avoiding a second addition of licensing revenue.
- The new Q2 license contributed to $30.426M royalty revenue, but its recurring-versus-catch-up split is not quantified in the reviewed filing. Future royalties are independent desk assumptions, not an annualized Q2 guarantee.
- Q2 2025 reported revenue includes a $45M patent settlement. It remains in historical reported totals; comparability requires separating the one-time amount.
- The 2026 tax benefit primarily reflects excess share-compensation deductions. Forecast cash taxes do not perpetuate that benefit. The majority deferred-tax valuation allowance was released in December 2025, not newly in Q2 2026.
- Capacity expansion cash and manufacturing-margin improvements are desk scenarios. The $22.745M equipment commitment is included within capital planning, not added mechanically on top of every quarter.
- No full royalty receivables, litigation liability, factory ramp or tax-asset rollforward; no EPS, terminal valuation or automatic buyback execution assumption.
Separate physical power demand from royalties and tax windfalls
Can recurring product and licensing cash finance the next manufacturing ramp?
Q2 revenue of $143.352M comprised $112.926M physical products and $30.426M royalties. Reported Advanced Products of $94.161M includes those royalties, leaving $63.735M physical Advanced sales plus $49.191M Brick sales. GAAP operating income was $34.878M. Net income benefited from a $10.863M tax benefit driven primarily by excess share-compensation deductions. H1 CFO of $30.197M included a $28.557M litigation payment; $23.560M PP&E/internal-use software cash left $6.637M. Employee option proceeds supplied a separate $44.224M financing inflow. June cash was $453.582M and backlog about $380M. The August $150M repurchase authorization replaces the old program and is not assumed executed. Q2 2025 revenue included a $45M settlement, which must be separated for comparison.
The competing explanation
AI-related power demand does not automatically ensure manufacturing yields or attractive returns on capacity. Royalties may be uneven, litigation can consume cash, and the unusually favorable tax line is not a recurring operating margin. A growing backlog can still leave weak free cash flow if inventory and factory spending lead collections.
Risks to track
- Advanced Products production yields and customer qualifications can delay deliveries.
- Royalty revenue can depend on license terms, reporting periods and litigation outcomes.
- Backlog timing and cancellation risks prevent treating it as guaranteed annual sales.
- Capacity spending and inventory can absorb cash before revenue ramps.
- Competition, customer concentration and patent challenges can limit returns.
- Tax deductions and option exercise proceeds are not recurring operating cash drivers.
Next checkpoints
- Revenue quality · Each quarterly filing (estimated). Reconcile Advanced physical sales, Brick sales and licensing without overlap.
- Factory economics · Capacity and production updates (estimated). Compare gross margin and cash investment against shipment growth.
- Royalty and tax recurrence · Next results and license disclosures (estimated). Separate any catch-up license amounts and excess stock-compensation tax deductions.
Data coverage and open work
- No recurring/catch-up allocation of the Q2 license is invented.
- Forecast capacity cash is a desk allowance, not management capital guidance.
- Historical quarter cash is derived from filed cumulative amounts when needed.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed strong, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.9 | +0.3 | +4.3 | 58% |
| 5 sessions | -6.0 | +0.6 | +8.0 | 56% |
| 10 sessions | -8.8 | +1.2 | +10.2 | 58% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.