ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$VG

Venture Global, Inc. · NYSE · SIC 4924 · CIK 2007855 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Venture Global develops and operates LNG export projects, pipelines and shipping assets. It sells commissioning cargoes under shorter-term arrangements before projects enter long-term commercial contracts. Profit depends on recognized LNG volumes, liquefaction fees, feed-gas costs and the transition between those sales regimes. Major construction programs require project debt and restricted reserves, while subsidiary preferred and minority owners have claims separate from public common shares.

Three drivers

  1. Recognized LNG volume and commissioning versus commercial fee mix
  2. Project completion, cash construction spend and capitalized interest
  3. Project debt, restricted cash and subsidiary/common distributions

Thesis

Our view

Large consolidated EBITDA can coexist with a substantial funding requirement. The key test is fee economics as Plaquemines reaches commercial operation and CP2 ramps, measured after construction, debt service and subsidiary claims rather than against cargo growth alone.

What changes it

Reliable commissioning, lower construction cash needs and durable post-COD margins would strengthen the case. Delays, adverse merchant fees, funding restrictions or legal cash outcomes could outweigh shipment growth.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q3
2024-09-30
2025Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)926.011,524.0†22,894.033,101.043,329.014,445.0†24,599.034,578.04
Gross profit ($M)
Operating income ($M)189.05594.0†61,080.071,038.081,320.051,718.0†61,151.072,188.08
Net income ($M)
EPS, diluted ($)-0.1590.15100.14110.1690.19100.5111
Diluted shares (M)2,350.0122,643.0132,635.0142,641.0122,635.0132,643.014
Cash ($M)3,608.0153,605.0162,247.0171,879.0182,355.0191,599.0203,120.019
Long-term debt ($M)29,086.02129,130.02229,774.02331,743.02433,393.02536,456.02641,527.025
Cash from operations ($M)280.0†27673.0†281,114.0291,458.0†301,883.0†272,111.0†28763.0292,072.0†30
Capex ($M)3,803.0†313,659.0†323,466.0332,980.0†343,294.0†313,625.0†323,181.0333,719.0†34
Free cash flow ($M)-3,523.0†35-2,986.0†36-2,352.0†37-1,522.0†38-1,411.0†35-1,514.0†36-2,418.0†37-1,647.0†38

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q34,965.72026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q44,965.72026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q14,275.92026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q24,117.82026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

LNG commissioning fees, commercial conversion and project funding

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Calibrate H2 2026 LNG fee contribution to the company EBITDA midpoint after reported H1, using export-cargo guidance, explicit size/sales timing and the midpoint of disclosed unsold-fee sensitivity. Feed-gas recovery adds revenue and cost equally. FY2027 replaces that calibration with separate post-COD SPA, precontracted commissioning and merchant mix assumptions, including CP2 volume only in H2. Deduct noncash expenses for operating profit; bridge EBITDA to cash after expensed cash interest, taxes and working capital. Gross cash construction includes capitalized interest. Subsidiary/common distributions, past redemption and principal are separate cash uses.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance midpointFY20268,900.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu on unsold cargos midpointFY2026195.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
H1 revenueH1 20269,177.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 common net incomeH1 20261,835.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 cfoH1 20262,835.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 capexH1 20266,900.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 CFO less capexH1 2026-4,065.00derived. Consolidated cash deficit before financing claims.
H1 subsidiary distributionsH1 2026210.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 preferred redemptionH1 20261,743.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 debt principalH1 20264,083.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
H1 debt drawsH1 202611,630.00reported. Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Source · 2026-08-11
cashJune/September 20263,120.00reported. USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Source · 2026-08-11
restricted cashJune/September 20261,470.00reported. USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Source · 2026-08-11
debt faceJune/September 202642,386.00reported. USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Source · 2026-08-11
current debt carryingJune/September 2026287.00reported. USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Source · 2026-08-11
new revolver commitmentJune/September 20263,000.00reported. USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Source · 2026-09-02
H2 residual costs net of other contributionH2 20261,190.06derived. Calibration residual, not separately disclosed operating expense or segment guidance.
2026 contracted fee revenue per TBtu soldFY20265.05reported. $5.05/MMBtu equals $5.05M for each TBtu sold; excludes feed-gas recovery. Company says 91% of annual cargos contracted. Source · 2026-08-11

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash capex ($M)Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Debt principal repayments ($M)Common cash dividends ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after distributions and principal ($M)CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
2026Q31,268.07-2,731.934,000.004,532.192,118.0780.00100.001,828.07-3,086.930.00175.00
2026Q41,343.07-2,856.934,200.004,532.192,118.0780.00100.121,806.07-3,077.050.0040.00
2027Q1124.15-3,875.854,000.003,214.06994.15150.00100.24655.15-4,306.090.00180.00
2027Q281.11-3,818.893,900.003,181.40876.11150.00100.36515.11-4,114.260.0045.00
FY20265,446.14-9,653.8615,100.0018,241.388,099.144,243.00289.136,973.14-16,353.991,743.00425.00
FY2027-366.07-14,966.0714,600.0013,137.393,513.93600.00401.692,025.93-16,417.770.00450.00

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash capex ($M)Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Debt principal repayments ($M)Common cash dividends ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after distributions and principal ($M)CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
2026Q31,818.50-1,581.503,400.004,965.732,518.5080.00100.002,228.50-1,936.500.00175.00
2026Q41,843.50-1,756.503,600.004,965.732,518.5080.00100.122,206.50-1,976.620.0040.00
2027Q11,183.74-2,216.263,400.004,275.861,953.74150.00100.241,614.74-2,646.510.00180.00
2027Q2981.40-2,218.603,200.004,117.841,706.40150.00100.361,345.40-2,513.960.0045.00
FY20266,497.00-7,403.0013,900.0019,108.468,900.004,243.00289.137,774.00-14,103.131,743.00425.00
FY20273,826.77-8,073.2311,900.0016,968.396,886.77600.00401.695,398.77-9,524.930.00450.00

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash capex ($M)Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)Debt principal repayments ($M)Common cash dividends ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after distributions and principal ($M)CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
2026Q32,141.57-1,258.433,400.005,263.942,791.5780.00100.002,501.57-1,613.430.00175.00
2026Q42,166.57-1,333.433,500.005,263.942,791.5780.00100.122,479.57-1,553.550.0040.00
2027Q12,370.88-829.123,200.005,533.783,090.88150.00100.242,751.88-1,259.360.00180.00
2027Q22,005.74-994.263,000.005,237.592,700.74150.00100.362,339.74-1,289.620.0045.00
FY20267,143.14-6,656.8613,800.0019,704.889,446.144,243.00289.138,320.14-13,356.991,743.00425.00
FY20278,204.64-2,895.3611,100.0021,727.7911,114.64600.00401.699,626.64-4,347.060.00450.00
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared9,177.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 adj ebitda
h1_adj_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared3,863.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared3,339.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared2,835.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared6,900.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 subsidiary distributions
h1_subsidiary_distributions
H1 2026 / shared210.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 common dividends
h1_common_dividends
H1 2026 / shared89.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 preferred redemption
h1_preferred_redemption
H1 2026 / shared1,743.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 debt principal
h1_debt_principal
H1 2026 / shared4,083.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 consolidated net income
h1_consolidated_net_income
H1 2026 / shared2,042.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 common net income
h1_common_net_income
H1 2026 / shared1,835.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 da
h1_da
H1 2026 / shared511.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 sbc
h1_sbc
H1 2026 / shared27.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 expensed cash interest
h1_expensed_cash_interest
H1 2026 / shared768.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 capitalized interest
h1_capitalized_interest
H1 2026 / shared595.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 debt draws
h1_debt_draws
H1 2026 / shared11,630.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 finance fees
h1_finance_fees
H1 2026 / shared506.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 nci cash
h1_nci_cash
H1 2026 / shared75.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 series a cash
h1_series_a_cash
H1 2026 / shared135.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 cp2 capex
h1_cp2_capex
H1 2026 / shared5,613.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported USD millions. CP2 cash capex is from the cash-flow discussion; segment capital expenditures also include financed amounts. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 CFO less capex
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared-4,065.00
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated cash deficit before financing claims. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 distributions redemption and principal
h1_claims
H1 2026 / shared6,125.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes one-time redemption and refinancing principal; new financing is intentionally separate. Formula: sum(h1_subsidiary_distributions, h1_common_dividends, h1_preferred_redemption, h1_debt_principal).
H1 cash after modeled claims
h1_cash_after_claims
H1 2026 / shared-10,190.00
USD_millions
derived: Not the change in cash: excludes $11.630B draws and other investing/financing flows. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_claims).
cash
cash
June/September 2026 / shared3,120.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-08-11
restricted cash
restricted_cash
June/September 2026 / shared1,470.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-08-11
debt face
debt_face
June/September 2026 / shared42,386.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-08-11
current debt carrying
current_debt_carrying
June/September 2026 / shared287.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-08-11
cp funding preferred remaining
cp_funding_preferred_remaining
June/September 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-08-11
new revolver commitment
new_revolver_commitment
June/September 2026 / shared3,000.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions. Redeemed CP Funding units differ from outstanding VGLNG Series A preferred/NCI interests. Primary source · 2026-09-02
FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance low
ebitda_guide_low
FY2026 / shared8,700.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance high
ebitda_guide_high
FY2026 / shared9,100.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance endpoint sum
ebitda_guide_sum
FY2026 / shared17,800.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(ebitda_guide_low, ebitda_guide_high).
FY2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance midpoint
ebitda_guide
FY2026 / shared8,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(ebitda_guide_sum, two).
FY2026 EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu on unsold cargos low
unsold_sensitivity_low
FY2026 / shared180.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
FY2026 EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu on unsold cargos high
unsold_sensitivity_high
FY2026 / shared210.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
FY2026 EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu on unsold cargos endpoint sum
unsold_sensitivity_sum
FY2026 / shared390.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(unsold_sensitivity_low, unsold_sensitivity_high).
FY2026 EBITDA sensitivity per $1/MMBtu on unsold cargos midpoint
unsold_sensitivity
FY2026 / shared195.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(unsold_sensitivity_sum, two).
Total 2026 export-cargo midpoint
annual_cargos
FY2026 / shared50,900.0%
ratio
assumption: Calculated midpoint of CP 149-154 plus Plaquemines 351-364 cargos; counts represented as dimensionless. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 exported cargos
h1_cargos
H1 2026 / shared25,700.0%
ratio
reported: Exported count, not sales-recognized cargo equivalent. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H1 LNG sales recognized, TBtu
h1_sales_tbtu
H1 2026 / shared94,720.0%
ratio
reported: TBtu equals million MMBtu; unit represented as a dimensionless physical quantity for normalization. Primary source · 2026-08-11
2026 contracted fee revenue per TBtu sold
contracted_fee
FY2026 / shared5.05
USD_millions
reported: $5.05/MMBtu equals $5.05M for each TBtu sold; excludes feed-gas recovery. Company says 91% of annual cargos contracted. Primary source · 2026-08-11
2026 unsold fee revenue per TBtu sold, midpoint
unsold_fee
FY2026 / shared13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Arithmetic midpoint of $12.50-$13.50/MMBtu assumed in guidance; not all-in sales price. Primary source · 2026-08-11
July 31 Class A plus Class B shares
common_shares
July 2026 / shared2,500.09
shares_millions
reported: 531,488,393 Class A plus 1,968,604,458 Class B, in millions; not diluted EPS denominator. Primary source · 2026-08-11
September common dividend per A/B share
declared_common_dps
2026Q3 / shared0.04
USD_per_share
reported: Declared dividend payable September 30; later dividends need future declarations. Primary source · 2026-08-11
September aggregate common dividend estimate
declared_common_cash
2026Q3 / shared100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk aggregate from July 31 A+B shares times declared $0.04; assumes unchanged shares through September record date. Primary source · 2026-08-11
Remaining 2026 export cargos
h2_cargos
H2 2026 / shared25,200.0%
ratio
derived: Annual midpoint less reported H1. Formula: subtract(annual_cargos, h1_cargos).
LNG cargo size, TBtu
cargo_size
Model / shared375.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk normalized size, compared with Q2 exported 478.3 TBtu across 127 cargos; not volumes sold 466.4 TBtu.
Recognized sales / contemporaneous exports
sales_timing
Model / shared98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk shipment/recognition factor; no assertion that each exported cargo is already recognized.
H2 recognized LNG sales TBtu baseline
h2_volume
H2 2026 / shared92,610.0%
ratio
derived: Physical volume baseline before fee mix. Formula: multiply(h2_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
H2 unsold fee-sensitive volume, TBtu
unsold_volume
H2 2026 / shared19,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk physical-volume equivalent of the $195M midpoint sensitivity for a $1/MMBtu fee move; approximates guidance sensitivity, not disclosed exact cargo size. Primary source · 2026-08-11
H2 contracted sales TBtu baseline
contracted_volume
H2 2026 / shared73,110.0%
ratio
derived: Remaining forecast recognized sales less fee-sensitive equivalent. Formula: subtract(h2_volume, unsold_volume).
H2 contracted fee revenue
h2_fixed_fee
H2 2026 / shared3,692.05
USD_millions
derived: Volume TBtu times normalized $M fee per TBtu. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, contracted_fee).
H2 unsold fee revenue
h2_unsold_fee
H2 2026 / shared2,535.00
USD_millions
derived: Company guidance price midpoint and sensitivity baseline. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, unsold_fee).
H2 fee revenue at guidance price baseline
h2_fee_baseline
H2 2026 / shared6,227.06
USD_millions
derived: Excludes feed-gas recovery. Formula: sum(h2_fixed_fee, h2_unsold_fee).
H2 company EBITDA midpoint residual
h2_ebitda_target
H2 2026 / shared5,037.00
USD_millions
derived: Annual company midpoint less reported H1. Formula: subtract(ebitda_guide, h1_adj_ebitda).
H2 residual costs net of other contribution
h2_residual_cost
H2 2026 / shared1,190.06
USD_millions
derived: Calibration residual, not separately disclosed operating expense or segment guidance. Formula: subtract(h2_fee_baseline, h2_ebitda_target).
Recognized volume delivery
downside_2026q3_execution
2026Q3 / downside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
downside_2026q3_half
2026Q3 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2026q3_volume
2026Q3 / downside43,989.8%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, downside_2026q3_half, downside_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
downside_2026q3_fixed_volume
2026Q3 / downside34,727.2%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, downside_2026q3_half, downside_2026q3_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
downside_2026q3_merchant_volume
2026Q3 / downside9,262.5%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, downside_2026q3_half, downside_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
downside_2026q3_fixed_fees
2026Q3 / downside1,753.73
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2026q3_merchant_fee
2026Q3 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
downside_2026q3_merchant_fees
2026Q3 / downside1,018.88
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_merchant_volume, downside_2026q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2026q3_fee_revenue
2026Q3 / downside2,772.60
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_fixed_fees, downside_2026q3_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
downside_2026q3_cost_factor
2026Q3 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2026q3_cash_costs
2026Q3 / downside654.53
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, downside_2026q3_half, downside_2026q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2026q3_feed_gas
2026Q3 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q3 / downside1,759.59
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_volume, downside_2026q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside4,532.19
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_fee_revenue, downside_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside2,118.07
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fee_revenue, downside_2026q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside275.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2026q3_other_adjustments
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2026q3_noncash_deductions
2026Q3 / downside290.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside1,828.07
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2026q3_legal_cash_stress
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / downside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / downside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / downside850.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use, downside_2026q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside1,268.07
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside4,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-2,731.93
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2026q3_series_a_cash
2026Q3 / downside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2026q3_nci_cash
2026Q3 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q3 / downside175.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_series_a_cash, downside_2026q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2026q3_share_growth
2026Q3 / downside0.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2026q3_shares
2026Q3 / downside2,500.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2026q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2026q3_dividend_share_factor
2026Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2026q3_dividend_factor
2026Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2026q3_common_dividends
2026Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2026q3_dividend_share_factor, downside_2026q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2026q3_preferred_redemption
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / downside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2026q3_common_dividends, downside_2026q3_preferred_redemption, downside_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / downside-3,086.93
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_claims).
Recognized volume delivery
downside_2026q4_execution
2026Q4 / downside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
downside_2026q4_half
2026Q4 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2026q4_volume
2026Q4 / downside43,989.8%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, downside_2026q4_half, downside_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
downside_2026q4_fixed_volume
2026Q4 / downside34,727.2%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, downside_2026q4_half, downside_2026q4_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
downside_2026q4_merchant_volume
2026Q4 / downside9,262.5%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, downside_2026q4_half, downside_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
downside_2026q4_fixed_fees
2026Q4 / downside1,753.73
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2026q4_merchant_fee
2026Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
downside_2026q4_merchant_fees
2026Q4 / downside1,018.88
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_merchant_volume, downside_2026q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2026q4_fee_revenue
2026Q4 / downside2,772.60
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_fixed_fees, downside_2026q4_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
downside_2026q4_cost_factor
2026Q4 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2026q4_cash_costs
2026Q4 / downside654.53
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, downside_2026q4_half, downside_2026q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2026q4_feed_gas
2026Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q4 / downside1,759.59
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_volume, downside_2026q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside4,532.19
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_fee_revenue, downside_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside2,118.07
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fee_revenue, downside_2026q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside295.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2026q4_other_adjustments
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2026q4_noncash_deductions
2026Q4 / downside312.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside1,806.07
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2026q4_legal_cash_stress
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / downside475.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / downside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / downside775.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use, downside_2026q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside1,343.07
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside4,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-2,856.93
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2026q4_series_a_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2026q4_nci_cash
2026Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_series_a_cash, downside_2026q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2026q4_share_growth
2026Q4 / downside3.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2026q4_shares
2026Q4 / downside2,503.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2026q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2026q4_dividend_share_factor
2026Q4 / downside100.1%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2026q4_dividend_factor
2026Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2026q4_common_dividends
2026Q4 / downside100.12
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2026q4_dividend_share_factor, downside_2026q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2026q4_preferred_redemption
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / downside220.12
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2026q4_common_dividends, downside_2026q4_preferred_redemption, downside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / downside-3,077.05
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
downside_2027q1_cargo_baseline
2027Q1 / downside13,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
downside_2027q1_volume_factor
2027Q1 / downside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
downside_2027q1_cargos
2027Q1 / downside11,700.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_cargo_baseline, downside_2027q1_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2027q1_volume
2027Q1 / downside42,997.5%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
downside_2027q1_spa_share
2027Q1 / downside55.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q1_commission_share
2027Q1 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
downside_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q1_nonmerchant_share
2027Q1 / downside65.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_spa_share, downside_2027q1_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
downside_2027q1_merchant_share
2027Q1 / downside35.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_one, downside_2027q1_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q1_spa_fee
2027Q1 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
downside_2027q1_spa_fees
2027Q1 / downside591.22
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_volume, downside_2027q1_spa_share, downside_2027q1_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q1_commission_fee
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
downside_2027q1_commission_fees
2027Q1 / downside214.99
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_volume, downside_2027q1_commission_share, downside_2027q1_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q1_merchant_fee
2027Q1 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
downside_2027q1_merchant_fees
2027Q1 / downside902.95
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_volume, downside_2027q1_merchant_share, downside_2027q1_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2027q1_fee_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1,709.15
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_spa_fees, downside_2027q1_commission_fees, downside_2027q1_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
downside_2027q1_cost_budget
2027Q1 / downside650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
downside_2027q1_cost_factor
2027Q1 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2027q1_cash_costs
2027Q1 / downside715.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_cost_budget, downside_2027q1_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2027q1_feed_gas
2027Q1 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q1 / downside1,504.91
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_volume, downside_2027q1_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside3,214.06
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fee_revenue, downside_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside994.15
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fee_revenue, downside_2027q1_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside315.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2027q1_other_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2027q1_noncash_deductions
2027Q1 / downside339.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside655.15
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2027q1_legal_cash_stress
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / downside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / downside870.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use, downside_2027q1_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside124.15
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside4,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-3,875.85
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2027q1_series_a_cash
2027Q1 / downside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2027q1_nci_cash
2027Q1 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q1 / downside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_series_a_cash, downside_2027q1_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2027q1_share_growth
2027Q1 / downside6.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2027q1_shares
2027Q1 / downside2,506.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2027q1_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2027q1_dividend_share_factor
2027Q1 / downside100.2%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2027q1_common_dividends
2027Q1 / downside100.24
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2027q1_dividend_share_factor, downside_2027q1_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2027q1_preferred_redemption
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / downside430.24
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q1_common_dividends, downside_2027q1_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside-4,306.09
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
downside_2027q2_cargo_baseline
2027Q2 / downside13,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
downside_2027q2_volume_factor
2027Q2 / downside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
downside_2027q2_cargos
2027Q2 / downside12,150.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_cargo_baseline, downside_2027q2_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2027q2_volume
2027Q2 / downside44,651.2%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
downside_2027q2_spa_share
2027Q2 / downside65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q2_commission_share
2027Q2 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
downside_2027q2_one
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q2_nonmerchant_share
2027Q2 / downside75.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_spa_share, downside_2027q2_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
downside_2027q2_merchant_share
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_one, downside_2027q2_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q2_spa_fee
2027Q2 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
downside_2027q2_spa_fees
2027Q2 / downside725.58
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_volume, downside_2027q2_spa_share, downside_2027q2_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q2_commission_fee
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
downside_2027q2_commission_fees
2027Q2 / downside223.26
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_volume, downside_2027q2_commission_share, downside_2027q2_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q2_merchant_fee
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
downside_2027q2_merchant_fees
2027Q2 / downside669.77
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_volume, downside_2027q2_merchant_share, downside_2027q2_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2027q2_fee_revenue
2027Q2 / downside1,618.61
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_spa_fees, downside_2027q2_commission_fees, downside_2027q2_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
downside_2027q2_cost_budget
2027Q2 / downside675.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
downside_2027q2_cost_factor
2027Q2 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2027q2_cash_costs
2027Q2 / downside742.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_cost_budget, downside_2027q2_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2027q2_feed_gas
2027Q2 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q2 / downside1,562.79
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_volume, downside_2027q2_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside3,181.40
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_fee_revenue, downside_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside876.11
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fee_revenue, downside_2027q2_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside335.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2027q2_other_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2027q2_noncash_deductions
2027Q2 / downside361.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside515.11
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2027q2_legal_cash_stress
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside525.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / downside795.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use, downside_2027q2_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside81.11
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside3,900.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-3,818.89
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2027q2_series_a_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2027q2_nci_cash
2027Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_series_a_cash, downside_2027q2_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2027q2_share_growth
2027Q2 / downside9.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2027q2_shares
2027Q2 / downside2,509.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2027q2_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2027q2_dividend_share_factor
2027Q2 / downside100.4%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2027q2_dividend_factor
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2027q2_common_dividends
2027Q2 / downside100.36
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2027q2_dividend_share_factor, downside_2027q2_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2027q2_preferred_redemption
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / downside295.36
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q2_common_dividends, downside_2027q2_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside-4,114.26
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
downside_2027q3_cargo_baseline
2027Q3 / downside14,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
downside_2027q3_volume_factor
2027Q3 / downside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
downside_2027q3_cargos
2027Q3 / downside13,050.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_cargo_baseline, downside_2027q3_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2027q3_volume
2027Q3 / downside47,958.8%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
downside_2027q3_spa_share
2027Q3 / downside75.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q3_commission_share
2027Q3 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
downside_2027q3_one
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q3_nonmerchant_share
2027Q3 / downside85.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_spa_share, downside_2027q3_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
downside_2027q3_merchant_share
2027Q3 / downside15.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_one, downside_2027q3_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q3_spa_fee
2027Q3 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
downside_2027q3_spa_fees
2027Q3 / downside899.23
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_volume, downside_2027q3_spa_share, downside_2027q3_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q3_commission_fee
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
downside_2027q3_commission_fees
2027Q3 / downside239.79
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_volume, downside_2027q3_commission_share, downside_2027q3_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q3_merchant_fee
2027Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
downside_2027q3_merchant_fees
2027Q3 / downside431.63
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_volume, downside_2027q3_merchant_share, downside_2027q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2027q3_fee_revenue
2027Q3 / downside1,570.65
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_spa_fees, downside_2027q3_commission_fees, downside_2027q3_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
downside_2027q3_cost_budget
2027Q3 / downside700.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
downside_2027q3_cost_factor
2027Q3 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2027q3_cash_costs
2027Q3 / downside770.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_cost_budget, downside_2027q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2027q3_feed_gas
2027Q3 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q3 / downside1,678.56
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_volume, downside_2027q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside3,249.21
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_fee_revenue, downside_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside800.65
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fee_revenue, downside_2027q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside355.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2027q3_other_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2027q3_noncash_deductions
2027Q3 / downside383.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside417.65
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2027q3_legal_cash_stress
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / downside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / downside870.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use, downside_2027q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-69.35
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside3,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-3,569.35
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2027q3_series_a_cash
2027Q3 / downside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2027q3_nci_cash
2027Q3 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q3 / downside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_series_a_cash, downside_2027q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2027q3_share_growth
2027Q3 / downside12.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2027q3_shares
2027Q3 / downside2,512.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2027q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2027q3_dividend_share_factor
2027Q3 / downside100.5%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2027q3_dividend_factor
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2027q3_common_dividends
2027Q3 / downside100.48
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2027q3_dividend_share_factor, downside_2027q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2027q3_preferred_redemption
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / downside430.48
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q3_common_dividends, downside_2027q3_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside-3,999.83
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
downside_2027q4_cargo_baseline
2027Q4 / downside16,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
downside_2027q4_volume_factor
2027Q4 / downside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
downside_2027q4_cargos
2027Q4 / downside14,400.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_cargo_baseline, downside_2027q4_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
downside_2027q4_volume
2027Q4 / downside52,920.0%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
downside_2027q4_spa_share
2027Q4 / downside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q4_commission_share
2027Q4 / downside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
downside_2027q4_one
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
downside_2027q4_nonmerchant_share
2027Q4 / downside90.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_spa_share, downside_2027q4_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
downside_2027q4_merchant_share
2027Q4 / downside10.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_one, downside_2027q4_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q4_spa_fee
2027Q4 / downside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
downside_2027q4_spa_fees
2027Q4 / downside1,058.40
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_volume, downside_2027q4_spa_share, downside_2027q4_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q4_commission_fee
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
downside_2027q4_commission_fees
2027Q4 / downside264.60
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_volume, downside_2027q4_commission_share, downside_2027q4_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
downside_2027q4_merchant_fee
2027Q4 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
downside_2027q4_merchant_fees
2027Q4 / downside317.52
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_volume, downside_2027q4_merchant_share, downside_2027q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
downside_2027q4_fee_revenue
2027Q4 / downside1,640.52
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_spa_fees, downside_2027q4_commission_fees, downside_2027q4_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
downside_2027q4_cost_budget
2027Q4 / downside725.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
downside_2027q4_cost_factor
2027Q4 / downside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
downside_2027q4_cash_costs
2027Q4 / downside797.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_cost_budget, downside_2027q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
downside_2027q4_feed_gas
2027Q4 / downside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
downside_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q4 / downside1,852.20
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_volume, downside_2027q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside3,492.72
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_fee_revenue, downside_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside843.02
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fee_revenue, downside_2027q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside375.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
downside_2027q4_other_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
downside_2027q4_noncash_deductions
2027Q4 / downside405.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside438.02
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
downside_2027q4_legal_cash_stress
2027Q4 / downside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
downside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside575.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
downside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
downside_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / downside1,345.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use, downside_2027q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-501.98
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside3,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-3,701.98
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
downside_2027q4_series_a_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
downside_2027q4_nci_cash
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
downside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_series_a_cash, downside_2027q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
downside_2027q4_share_growth
2027Q4 / downside15.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
downside_2027q4_shares
2027Q4 / downside2,515.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, downside_2027q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
downside_2027q4_dividend_share_factor
2027Q4 / downside100.6%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
downside_2027q4_dividend_factor
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
downside_2027q4_common_dividends
2027Q4 / downside100.60
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, downside_2027q4_dividend_share_factor, downside_2027q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
downside_2027q4_preferred_redemption
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
downside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
downside_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / downside295.60
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q4_common_dividends, downside_2027q4_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside-3,997.58
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside18,241.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / downside8,099.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside6,973.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside5,446.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside15,100.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-9,653.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
downside_fy2026_subsidiary_distributions
FY2026 / downside425.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
downside_fy2026_common_dividends
FY2026 / downside289.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_common_dividends, downside_2026q3_common_dividends, downside_2026q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
downside_fy2026_preferred_redemption
FY2026 / downside1,743.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_redemption, downside_2026q3_preferred_redemption, downside_2026q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
downside_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / downside4,243.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, downside_2026q3_debt_principal, downside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / downside-16,353.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside13,137.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / downside3,513.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside2,025.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-366.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside14,600.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-14,966.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
downside_fy2027_subsidiary_distributions
FY2027 / downside450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, downside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
downside_fy2027_common_dividends
FY2027 / downside401.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_common_dividends, downside_2027q2_common_dividends, downside_2027q3_common_dividends, downside_2027q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
downside_fy2027_preferred_redemption
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q2_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q3_preferred_redemption, downside_2027q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
downside_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / downside600.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_debt_principal, downside_2027q2_debt_principal, downside_2027q3_debt_principal, downside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside-16,417.77
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Recognized volume delivery
base_2026q3_execution
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
base_2026q3_half
2026Q3 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2026q3_volume
2026Q3 / base46,305.0%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, base_2026q3_half, base_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
base_2026q3_fixed_volume
2026Q3 / base36,555.0%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, base_2026q3_half, base_2026q3_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
base_2026q3_merchant_volume
2026Q3 / base9,750.0%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, base_2026q3_half, base_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
base_2026q3_fixed_fees
2026Q3 / base1,846.03
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
base_2026q3_merchant_fee
2026Q3 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
base_2026q3_merchant_fees
2026Q3 / base1,267.50
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_merchant_volume, base_2026q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2026q3_fee_revenue
2026Q3 / base3,113.53
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_fixed_fees, base_2026q3_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
base_2026q3_cost_factor
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
base_2026q3_cash_costs
2026Q3 / base595.03
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, base_2026q3_half, base_2026q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2026q3_feed_gas
2026Q3 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q3 / base1,852.20
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_volume, base_2026q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base4,965.73
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_fee_revenue, base_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / base2,518.50
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fee_revenue, base_2026q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base275.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2026q3_other_adjustments
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2026q3_noncash_deductions
2026Q3 / base290.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base2,228.50
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2026q3_legal_cash_stress
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / base450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / base700.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use, base_2026q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base1,818.50
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base3,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-1,581.50
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2026q3_series_a_cash
2026Q3 / base135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2026q3_nci_cash
2026Q3 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q3 / base175.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_series_a_cash, base_2026q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2026q3_share_growth
2026Q3 / base0.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2026q3_shares
2026Q3 / base2,500.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2026q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2026q3_dividend_share_factor
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2026q3_dividend_factor
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2026q3_common_dividends
2026Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2026q3_dividend_share_factor, base_2026q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2026q3_preferred_redemption
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / base355.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, base_2026q3_common_dividends, base_2026q3_preferred_redemption, base_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / base-1,936.50
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_claims).
Recognized volume delivery
base_2026q4_execution
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
base_2026q4_half
2026Q4 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2026q4_volume
2026Q4 / base46,305.0%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, base_2026q4_half, base_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
base_2026q4_fixed_volume
2026Q4 / base36,555.0%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, base_2026q4_half, base_2026q4_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
base_2026q4_merchant_volume
2026Q4 / base9,750.0%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, base_2026q4_half, base_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
base_2026q4_fixed_fees
2026Q4 / base1,846.03
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
base_2026q4_merchant_fee
2026Q4 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
base_2026q4_merchant_fees
2026Q4 / base1,267.50
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_merchant_volume, base_2026q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2026q4_fee_revenue
2026Q4 / base3,113.53
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_fixed_fees, base_2026q4_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
base_2026q4_cost_factor
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
base_2026q4_cash_costs
2026Q4 / base595.03
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, base_2026q4_half, base_2026q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2026q4_feed_gas
2026Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q4 / base1,852.20
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_volume, base_2026q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base4,965.73
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_fee_revenue, base_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / base2,518.50
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fee_revenue, base_2026q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base295.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2026q4_other_adjustments
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2026q4_noncash_deductions
2026Q4 / base312.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base2,206.50
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2026q4_legal_cash_stress
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / base475.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / base675.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use, base_2026q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base1,843.50
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base3,600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base-1,756.50
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2026q4_series_a_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2026q4_nci_cash
2026Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_series_a_cash, base_2026q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2026q4_share_growth
2026Q4 / base3.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2026q4_shares
2026Q4 / base2,503.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2026q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2026q4_dividend_share_factor
2026Q4 / base100.1%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2026q4_dividend_factor
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2026q4_common_dividends
2026Q4 / base100.12
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2026q4_dividend_share_factor, base_2026q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2026q4_preferred_redemption
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / base220.12
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions, base_2026q4_common_dividends, base_2026q4_preferred_redemption, base_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / base-1,976.62
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
base_2027q1_cargo_baseline
2027Q1 / base13,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
base_2027q1_volume_factor
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
base_2027q1_cargos
2027Q1 / base13,000.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_cargo_baseline, base_2027q1_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2027q1_volume
2027Q1 / base47,775.0%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
base_2027q1_spa_share
2027Q1 / base50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q1_commission_share
2027Q1 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
base_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q1_nonmerchant_share
2027Q1 / base60.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_spa_share, base_2027q1_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
base_2027q1_merchant_share
2027Q1 / base40.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_one, base_2027q1_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q1_spa_fee
2027Q1 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
base_2027q1_spa_fees
2027Q1 / base597.19
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_volume, base_2027q1_spa_share, base_2027q1_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q1_commission_fee
2027Q1 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
base_2027q1_commission_fees
2027Q1 / base286.65
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_volume, base_2027q1_commission_share, base_2027q1_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q1_merchant_fee
2027Q1 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
base_2027q1_merchant_fees
2027Q1 / base1,719.90
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_volume, base_2027q1_merchant_share, base_2027q1_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2027q1_fee_revenue
2027Q1 / base2,603.74
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_spa_fees, base_2027q1_commission_fees, base_2027q1_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
base_2027q1_cost_budget
2027Q1 / base650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
base_2027q1_cost_factor
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
base_2027q1_cash_costs
2027Q1 / base650.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_cost_budget, base_2027q1_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2027q1_feed_gas
2027Q1 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q1 / base1,672.12
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_volume, base_2027q1_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base4,275.86
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fee_revenue, base_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / base1,953.74
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fee_revenue, base_2027q1_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base315.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2027q1_other_adjustments
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2027q1_noncash_deductions
2027Q1 / base339.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base1,614.74
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2027q1_legal_cash_stress
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / base770.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use, base_2027q1_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base1,183.74
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base3,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-2,216.26
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2027q1_series_a_cash
2027Q1 / base135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2027q1_nci_cash
2027Q1 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q1 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_series_a_cash, base_2027q1_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2027q1_share_growth
2027Q1 / base6.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2027q1_shares
2027Q1 / base2,506.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2027q1_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2027q1_dividend_share_factor
2027Q1 / base100.2%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2027q1_common_dividends
2027Q1 / base100.24
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2027q1_dividend_share_factor, base_2027q1_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2027q1_preferred_redemption
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / base430.24
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q1_common_dividends, base_2027q1_preferred_redemption, base_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base-2,646.51
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
base_2027q2_cargo_baseline
2027Q2 / base13,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
base_2027q2_volume_factor
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
base_2027q2_cargos
2027Q2 / base13,500.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_cargo_baseline, base_2027q2_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2027q2_volume
2027Q2 / base49,612.5%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
base_2027q2_spa_share
2027Q2 / base60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q2_commission_share
2027Q2 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
base_2027q2_one
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q2_nonmerchant_share
2027Q2 / base70.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_spa_share, base_2027q2_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
base_2027q2_merchant_share
2027Q2 / base30.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_one, base_2027q2_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q2_spa_fee
2027Q2 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
base_2027q2_spa_fees
2027Q2 / base744.19
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_volume, base_2027q2_spa_share, base_2027q2_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q2_commission_fee
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
base_2027q2_commission_fees
2027Q2 / base297.68
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_volume, base_2027q2_commission_share, base_2027q2_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q2_merchant_fee
2027Q2 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
base_2027q2_merchant_fees
2027Q2 / base1,339.54
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_volume, base_2027q2_merchant_share, base_2027q2_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2027q2_fee_revenue
2027Q2 / base2,381.40
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_spa_fees, base_2027q2_commission_fees, base_2027q2_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
base_2027q2_cost_budget
2027Q2 / base675.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
base_2027q2_cost_factor
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
base_2027q2_cash_costs
2027Q2 / base675.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_cost_budget, base_2027q2_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2027q2_feed_gas
2027Q2 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q2 / base1,736.44
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_volume, base_2027q2_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base4,117.84
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_fee_revenue, base_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / base1,706.40
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fee_revenue, base_2027q2_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base335.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2027q2_other_adjustments
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2027q2_noncash_deductions
2027Q2 / base361.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base1,345.40
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2027q2_legal_cash_stress
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base525.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / base725.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use, base_2027q2_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base981.40
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base3,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-2,218.60
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2027q2_series_a_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2027q2_nci_cash
2027Q2 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q2 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_series_a_cash, base_2027q2_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2027q2_share_growth
2027Q2 / base9.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2027q2_shares
2027Q2 / base2,509.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2027q2_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2027q2_dividend_share_factor
2027Q2 / base100.4%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2027q2_dividend_factor
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2027q2_common_dividends
2027Q2 / base100.36
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2027q2_dividend_share_factor, base_2027q2_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2027q2_preferred_redemption
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / base295.36
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q2_common_dividends, base_2027q2_preferred_redemption, base_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base-2,513.96
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
base_2027q3_cargo_baseline
2027Q3 / base14,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
base_2027q3_volume_factor
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
base_2027q3_cargos
2027Q3 / base14,500.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_cargo_baseline, base_2027q3_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2027q3_volume
2027Q3 / base53,287.5%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
base_2027q3_spa_share
2027Q3 / base70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q3_commission_share
2027Q3 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
base_2027q3_one
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q3_nonmerchant_share
2027Q3 / base80.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_spa_share, base_2027q3_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
base_2027q3_merchant_share
2027Q3 / base20.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_one, base_2027q3_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q3_spa_fee
2027Q3 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
base_2027q3_spa_fees
2027Q3 / base932.53
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_volume, base_2027q3_spa_share, base_2027q3_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q3_commission_fee
2027Q3 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
base_2027q3_commission_fees
2027Q3 / base319.73
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_volume, base_2027q3_commission_share, base_2027q3_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q3_merchant_fee
2027Q3 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
base_2027q3_merchant_fees
2027Q3 / base959.18
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_volume, base_2027q3_merchant_share, base_2027q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2027q3_fee_revenue
2027Q3 / base2,211.43
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_spa_fees, base_2027q3_commission_fees, base_2027q3_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
base_2027q3_cost_budget
2027Q3 / base700.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
base_2027q3_cost_factor
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
base_2027q3_cash_costs
2027Q3 / base700.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_cost_budget, base_2027q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2027q3_feed_gas
2027Q3 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q3 / base1,865.06
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_volume, base_2027q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base4,076.49
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_fee_revenue, base_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / base1,511.43
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fee_revenue, base_2027q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base355.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2027q3_other_adjustments
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2027q3_noncash_deductions
2027Q3 / base383.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base1,128.43
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2027q3_legal_cash_stress
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / base790.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use, base_2027q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base721.43
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base2,800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-2,078.57
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2027q3_series_a_cash
2027Q3 / base135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2027q3_nci_cash
2027Q3 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q3 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_series_a_cash, base_2027q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2027q3_share_growth
2027Q3 / base12.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2027q3_shares
2027Q3 / base2,512.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2027q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2027q3_dividend_share_factor
2027Q3 / base100.5%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2027q3_dividend_factor
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2027q3_common_dividends
2027Q3 / base100.48
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2027q3_dividend_share_factor, base_2027q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2027q3_preferred_redemption
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / base430.48
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q3_common_dividends, base_2027q3_preferred_redemption, base_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base-2,509.05
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
base_2027q4_cargo_baseline
2027Q4 / base16,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
base_2027q4_volume_factor
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
base_2027q4_cargos
2027Q4 / base16,000.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_cargo_baseline, base_2027q4_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
base_2027q4_volume
2027Q4 / base58,800.0%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
base_2027q4_spa_share
2027Q4 / base70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q4_commission_share
2027Q4 / base10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
base_2027q4_one
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
base_2027q4_nonmerchant_share
2027Q4 / base80.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_spa_share, base_2027q4_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
base_2027q4_merchant_share
2027Q4 / base20.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_one, base_2027q4_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q4_spa_fee
2027Q4 / base2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
base_2027q4_spa_fees
2027Q4 / base1,029.00
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_volume, base_2027q4_spa_share, base_2027q4_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q4_commission_fee
2027Q4 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
base_2027q4_commission_fees
2027Q4 / base352.80
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_volume, base_2027q4_commission_share, base_2027q4_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
base_2027q4_merchant_fee
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
base_2027q4_merchant_fees
2027Q4 / base1,058.40
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_volume, base_2027q4_merchant_share, base_2027q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
base_2027q4_fee_revenue
2027Q4 / base2,440.20
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_spa_fees, base_2027q4_commission_fees, base_2027q4_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
base_2027q4_cost_budget
2027Q4 / base725.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
base_2027q4_cost_factor
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
base_2027q4_cash_costs
2027Q4 / base725.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_cost_budget, base_2027q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
base_2027q4_feed_gas
2027Q4 / base3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
base_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q4 / base2,058.00
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_volume, base_2027q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base4,498.20
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_fee_revenue, base_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / base1,715.20
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fee_revenue, base_2027q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base375.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
base_2027q4_other_adjustments
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
base_2027q4_noncash_deductions
2027Q4 / base405.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base1,310.20
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
base_2027q4_legal_cash_stress
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
base_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base575.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
base_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
base_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / base775.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use, base_2027q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base940.20
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base2,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-1,559.80
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
base_2027q4_series_a_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
base_2027q4_nci_cash
2027Q4 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
base_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q4 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_series_a_cash, base_2027q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
base_2027q4_share_growth
2027Q4 / base15.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
base_2027q4_shares
2027Q4 / base2,515.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, base_2027q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
base_2027q4_dividend_share_factor
2027Q4 / base100.6%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
base_2027q4_dividend_factor
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
base_2027q4_common_dividends
2027Q4 / base100.60
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, base_2027q4_dividend_share_factor, base_2027q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
base_2027q4_preferred_redemption
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
base_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
base_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / base295.60
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q4_common_dividends, base_2027q4_preferred_redemption, base_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base-1,855.40
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base19,108.46
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / base8,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base7,774.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base6,497.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base13,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base-7,403.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
base_fy2026_subsidiary_distributions
FY2026 / base425.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_subsidiary_distributions, base_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, base_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
base_fy2026_common_dividends
FY2026 / base289.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_common_dividends, base_2026q3_common_dividends, base_2026q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
base_fy2026_preferred_redemption
FY2026 / base1,743.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_redemption, base_2026q3_preferred_redemption, base_2026q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
base_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / base4,243.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, base_2026q3_debt_principal, base_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / base-14,103.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base16,968.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / base6,886.77
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base5,398.77
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base3,826.77
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base11,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-8,073.23
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
base_fy2027_subsidiary_distributions
FY2027 / base450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, base_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
base_fy2027_common_dividends
FY2027 / base401.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_common_dividends, base_2027q2_common_dividends, base_2027q3_common_dividends, base_2027q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
base_fy2027_preferred_redemption
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_redemption, base_2027q2_preferred_redemption, base_2027q3_preferred_redemption, base_2027q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
base_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / base600.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_debt_principal, base_2027q2_debt_principal, base_2027q3_debt_principal, base_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base-9,524.93
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Recognized volume delivery
upside_2026q3_execution
2026Q3 / upside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
upside_2026q3_half
2026Q3 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2026q3_volume
2026Q3 / upside47,231.1%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, upside_2026q3_half, upside_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
upside_2026q3_fixed_volume
2026Q3 / upside37,286.1%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, upside_2026q3_half, upside_2026q3_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
upside_2026q3_merchant_volume
2026Q3 / upside9,945.0%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, upside_2026q3_half, upside_2026q3_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
upside_2026q3_fixed_fees
2026Q3 / upside1,882.95
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2026q3_merchant_fee
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
upside_2026q3_merchant_fees
2026Q3 / upside1,491.75
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_merchant_volume, upside_2026q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2026q3_fee_revenue
2026Q3 / upside3,374.70
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_fixed_fees, upside_2026q3_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
upside_2026q3_cost_factor
2026Q3 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2026q3_cash_costs
2026Q3 / upside583.13
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, upside_2026q3_half, upside_2026q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2026q3_feed_gas
2026Q3 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q3 / upside1,889.24
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_volume, upside_2026q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside5,263.94
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_fee_revenue, upside_2026q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside2,791.57
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fee_revenue, upside_2026q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside275.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2026q3_other_adjustments
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2026q3_noncash_deductions
2026Q3 / upside290.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside2,501.57
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2026q3_legal_cash_stress
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2026q3_cash_interest
2026Q3 / upside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2026q3_cfo_uses
2026Q3 / upside650.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use, upside_2026q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside2,141.57
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside3,400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside-1,258.43
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2026q3_series_a_cash
2026Q3 / upside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2026q3_nci_cash
2026Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q3 / upside175.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_series_a_cash, upside_2026q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2026q3_share_growth
2026Q3 / upside0.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2026q3_shares
2026Q3 / upside2,500.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2026q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2026q3_dividend_share_factor
2026Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2026q3_dividend_factor
2026Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2026q3_common_dividends
2026Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2026q3_dividend_share_factor, upside_2026q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2026q3_preferred_redemption
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2026q3_claims
2026Q3 / upside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2026q3_common_dividends, upside_2026q3_preferred_redemption, upside_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / upside-1,613.43
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_claims).
Recognized volume delivery
upside_2026q4_execution
2026Q4 / upside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
H2 quarterly allocation
upside_2026q4_half
2026Q4 / upside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2026q4_volume
2026Q4 / upside47,231.1%
ratio
derived: Equal H2 baseline allocation; cargo acceptance can change timing. Formula: multiply(h2_volume, upside_2026q4_half, upside_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee volume TBtu
upside_2026q4_fixed_volume
2026Q4 / upside37,286.1%
ratio
derived: 2026 contracted mix, not long-term SPA-only mix. Formula: multiply(contracted_volume, upside_2026q4_half, upside_2026q4_execution).
Unsold fee-sensitive TBtu
upside_2026q4_merchant_volume
2026Q4 / upside9,945.0%
ratio
derived: Equivalent volume sensitivity. Formula: multiply(unsold_volume, upside_2026q4_half, upside_2026q4_execution).
Contracted fee revenue
upside_2026q4_fixed_fees
2026Q4 / upside1,882.95
USD_millions
derived: Contracted 2026 fee is distinct from feed-gas revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_fixed_volume, contracted_fee).
Unsold fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2026q4_merchant_fee
2026Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Normalized $M per TBtu; equivalent to dollars per MMBtu. Base is company guidance midpoint.
Unsold fee revenue
upside_2026q4_merchant_fees
2026Q4 / upside1,491.75
USD_millions
derived: Unsold price scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_merchant_volume, upside_2026q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2026q4_fee_revenue
2026Q4 / upside3,374.70
USD_millions
derived: Calibrated annual guidance already incorporates expected Phase 1 COD timing. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_fixed_fees, upside_2026q4_merchant_fees).
Cost delivery stress
upside_2026q4_cost_factor
2026Q4 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Residual operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2026q4_cash_costs
2026Q4 / upside583.13
USD_millions
derived: Guidance calibration; not an independently disclosed cost forecast. Formula: multiply(h2_residual_cost, upside_2026q4_half, upside_2026q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2026q4_feed_gas
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery
2026Q4 / upside1,889.24
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_volume, upside_2026q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside5,263.94
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_fee_revenue, upside_2026q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside2,791.57
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fee_revenue, upside_2026q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside295.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2026q4_other_adjustments
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2026q4_noncash_deductions
2026Q4 / upside312.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside2,479.57
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2026q4_legal_cash_stress
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / upside475.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2026q4_cfo_uses
2026Q4 / upside625.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use, upside_2026q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside2,166.57
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside3,500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside-1,333.43
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2026q4_series_a_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2026q4_nci_cash
2026Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions
2026Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_series_a_cash, upside_2026q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2026q4_share_growth
2026Q4 / upside3.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2026q4_shares
2026Q4 / upside2,503.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2026q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2026q4_dividend_share_factor
2026Q4 / upside100.1%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2026q4_dividend_factor
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2026q4_common_dividends
2026Q4 / upside100.12
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2026q4_dividend_share_factor, upside_2026q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2026q4_preferred_redemption
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2026q4_claims
2026Q4 / upside220.12
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2026q4_common_dividends, upside_2026q4_preferred_redemption, upside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / upside-1,553.55
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
upside_2027q1_cargo_baseline
2027Q1 / upside13,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
upside_2027q1_volume_factor
2027Q1 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
upside_2027q1_cargos
2027Q1 / upside14,040.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_cargo_baseline, upside_2027q1_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2027q1_volume
2027Q1 / upside51,597.0%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
upside_2027q1_spa_share
2027Q1 / upside45.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q1_commission_share
2027Q1 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
upside_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q1_nonmerchant_share
2027Q1 / upside55.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_spa_share, upside_2027q1_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
upside_2027q1_merchant_share
2027Q1 / upside45.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_one, upside_2027q1_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q1_spa_fee
2027Q1 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
upside_2027q1_spa_fees
2027Q1 / upside580.47
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_volume, upside_2027q1_spa_share, upside_2027q1_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q1_commission_fee
2027Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
upside_2027q1_commission_fees
2027Q1 / upside361.18
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_volume, upside_2027q1_commission_share, upside_2027q1_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q1_merchant_fee
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
upside_2027q1_merchant_fees
2027Q1 / upside2,786.24
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_volume, upside_2027q1_merchant_share, upside_2027q1_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2027q1_fee_revenue
2027Q1 / upside3,727.88
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_spa_fees, upside_2027q1_commission_fees, upside_2027q1_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
upside_2027q1_cost_budget
2027Q1 / upside650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
upside_2027q1_cost_factor
2027Q1 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2027q1_cash_costs
2027Q1 / upside637.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_cost_budget, upside_2027q1_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2027q1_feed_gas
2027Q1 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q1 / upside1,805.89
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_volume, upside_2027q1_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside5,533.78
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fee_revenue, upside_2027q1_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside3,090.88
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fee_revenue, upside_2027q1_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside315.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2027q1_other_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2027q1_noncash_deductions
2027Q1 / upside339.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside2,751.88
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2027q1_legal_cash_stress
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2027q1_cfo_uses
2027Q1 / upside720.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use, upside_2027q1_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside2,370.88
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside3,200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside-829.12
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2027q1_series_a_cash
2027Q1 / upside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2027q1_nci_cash
2027Q1 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q1 / upside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_series_a_cash, upside_2027q1_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2027q1_share_growth
2027Q1 / upside6.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2027q1_shares
2027Q1 / upside2,506.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2027q1_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2027q1_dividend_share_factor
2027Q1 / upside100.2%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2027q1_common_dividends
2027Q1 / upside100.24
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2027q1_dividend_share_factor, upside_2027q1_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2027q1_preferred_redemption
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2027q1_claims
2027Q1 / upside430.24
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q1_common_dividends, upside_2027q1_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside-1,259.36
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
upside_2027q2_cargo_baseline
2027Q2 / upside13,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
upside_2027q2_volume_factor
2027Q2 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
upside_2027q2_cargos
2027Q2 / upside14,580.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_cargo_baseline, upside_2027q2_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2027q2_volume
2027Q2 / upside53,581.5%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
upside_2027q2_spa_share
2027Q2 / upside55.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q2_commission_share
2027Q2 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
upside_2027q2_one
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q2_nonmerchant_share
2027Q2 / upside65.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_spa_share, upside_2027q2_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
upside_2027q2_merchant_share
2027Q2 / upside35.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_one, upside_2027q2_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q2_spa_fee
2027Q2 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
upside_2027q2_spa_fees
2027Q2 / upside736.75
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_volume, upside_2027q2_spa_share, upside_2027q2_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q2_commission_fee
2027Q2 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
upside_2027q2_commission_fees
2027Q2 / upside375.07
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_volume, upside_2027q2_commission_share, upside_2027q2_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q2_merchant_fee
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
upside_2027q2_merchant_fees
2027Q2 / upside2,250.42
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_volume, upside_2027q2_merchant_share, upside_2027q2_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2027q2_fee_revenue
2027Q2 / upside3,362.24
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_spa_fees, upside_2027q2_commission_fees, upside_2027q2_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
upside_2027q2_cost_budget
2027Q2 / upside675.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
upside_2027q2_cost_factor
2027Q2 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2027q2_cash_costs
2027Q2 / upside661.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_cost_budget, upside_2027q2_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2027q2_feed_gas
2027Q2 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q2 / upside1,875.35
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_volume, upside_2027q2_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside5,237.59
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_fee_revenue, upside_2027q2_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside2,700.74
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fee_revenue, upside_2027q2_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside335.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2027q2_other_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2027q2_noncash_deductions
2027Q2 / upside361.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside2,339.74
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2027q2_legal_cash_stress
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside525.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2027q2_cfo_uses
2027Q2 / upside695.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use, upside_2027q2_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside2,005.74
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside3,000.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside-994.26
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2027q2_series_a_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2027q2_nci_cash
2027Q2 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q2 / upside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_series_a_cash, upside_2027q2_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2027q2_share_growth
2027Q2 / upside9.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2027q2_shares
2027Q2 / upside2,509.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2027q2_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2027q2_dividend_share_factor
2027Q2 / upside100.4%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2027q2_dividend_factor
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2027q2_common_dividends
2027Q2 / upside100.36
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2027q2_dividend_share_factor, upside_2027q2_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2027q2_preferred_redemption
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2027q2_claims
2027Q2 / upside295.36
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q2_common_dividends, upside_2027q2_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside-1,289.62
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
upside_2027q3_cargo_baseline
2027Q3 / upside14,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
upside_2027q3_volume_factor
2027Q3 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
upside_2027q3_cargos
2027Q3 / upside15,660.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_cargo_baseline, upside_2027q3_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2027q3_volume
2027Q3 / upside57,550.5%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
upside_2027q3_spa_share
2027Q3 / upside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q3_commission_share
2027Q3 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
upside_2027q3_one
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q3_nonmerchant_share
2027Q3 / upside70.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_spa_share, upside_2027q3_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
upside_2027q3_merchant_share
2027Q3 / upside30.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_one, upside_2027q3_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q3_spa_fee
2027Q3 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
upside_2027q3_spa_fees
2027Q3 / upside863.26
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_volume, upside_2027q3_spa_share, upside_2027q3_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q3_commission_fee
2027Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
upside_2027q3_commission_fees
2027Q3 / upside402.85
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_volume, upside_2027q3_commission_share, upside_2027q3_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q3_merchant_fee
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
upside_2027q3_merchant_fees
2027Q3 / upside2,071.82
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_volume, upside_2027q3_merchant_share, upside_2027q3_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2027q3_fee_revenue
2027Q3 / upside3,337.93
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_spa_fees, upside_2027q3_commission_fees, upside_2027q3_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
upside_2027q3_cost_budget
2027Q3 / upside700.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
upside_2027q3_cost_factor
2027Q3 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2027q3_cash_costs
2027Q3 / upside686.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_cost_budget, upside_2027q3_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2027q3_feed_gas
2027Q3 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q3 / upside2,014.27
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_volume, upside_2027q3_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside5,352.20
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_fee_revenue, upside_2027q3_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside2,651.93
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fee_revenue, upside_2027q3_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside355.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2027q3_other_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2027q3_noncash_deductions
2027Q3 / upside383.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside2,268.93
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2027q3_legal_cash_stress
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside550.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2027q3_cfo_uses
2027Q3 / upside750.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use, upside_2027q3_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside1,901.93
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside2,600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside-698.07
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2027q3_series_a_cash
2027Q3 / upside135.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2027q3_nci_cash
2027Q3 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q3 / upside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_series_a_cash, upside_2027q3_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2027q3_share_growth
2027Q3 / upside12.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2027q3_shares
2027Q3 / upside2,512.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2027q3_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2027q3_dividend_share_factor
2027Q3 / upside100.5%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2027q3_dividend_factor
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2027q3_common_dividends
2027Q3 / upside100.48
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2027q3_dividend_share_factor, upside_2027q3_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2027q3_preferred_redemption
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2027q3_claims
2027Q3 / upside430.48
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q3_common_dividends, upside_2027q3_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside-1,128.55
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_claims).
Standalone project export-cargo plan
upside_2027q4_cargo_baseline
2027Q4 / upside16,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk combined project output; includes CP2 only in H2, not incremental double-counted shipments.
Cargo delivery factor
upside_2027q4_volume_factor
2027Q4 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Exported cargos
upside_2027q4_cargos
2027Q4 / upside17,280.0%
ratio
derived: No 2028-2030 expansions or China Gas contract volume. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_cargo_baseline, upside_2027q4_volume_factor).
Recognized LNG sales TBtu
upside_2027q4_volume
2027Q4 / upside63,504.0%
ratio
derived: Includes recognition lag separately from exported cargo counts. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_cargos, cargo_size, sales_timing).
Recognized volume sold under post-COD SPAs
upside_2027q4_spa_share
2027Q4 / upside65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q4_commission_share
2027Q4 / upside10.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
All recognized volume
upside_2027q4_one
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
SPA plus precontracted commissioning share
upside_2027q4_nonmerchant_share
2027Q4 / upside75.0%
ratio
derived: Mutually exclusive price buckets. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_spa_share, upside_2027q4_commission_share).
Remaining merchant volume share
upside_2027q4_merchant_share
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
derived: No double-counted sales mix. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_one, upside_2027q4_nonmerchant_share).
spa fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q4_spa_fee
2027Q4 / upside2.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
spa fee revenue
upside_2027q4_spa_fees
2027Q4 / upside1,031.94
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_volume, upside_2027q4_spa_share, upside_2027q4_spa_fee).
commission fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q4_commission_fee
2027Q4 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
commission fee revenue
upside_2027q4_commission_fees
2027Q4 / upside444.53
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_volume, upside_2027q4_commission_share, upside_2027q4_commission_fee).
merchant fee revenue per TBtu
upside_2027q4_merchant_fee
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk normalized $M per TBtu, equivalent to $/MMBtu. SPA fee is not the reported 2026 contracted commissioning fee.
merchant fee revenue
upside_2027q4_merchant_fees
2027Q4 / upside1,905.12
USD_millions
derived: Recognized physical volume times its specific mix and fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_volume, upside_2027q4_merchant_share, upside_2027q4_merchant_fee).
LNG fee revenue
upside_2027q4_fee_revenue
2027Q4 / upside3,381.59
USD_millions
derived: Post-COD conversion can lower unit margin even as shipments grow. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_spa_fees, upside_2027q4_commission_fees, upside_2027q4_merchant_fees).
Operating cost/contribution budget
upside_2027q4_cost_budget
2027Q4 / upside725.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cost execution stress
upside_2027q4_cost_factor
2027Q4 / upside98.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating costs net of other contribution
upside_2027q4_cash_costs
2027Q4 / upside710.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk consolidated residual covering operating, corporate and development costs after non-GAAP adjustments. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_cost_budget, upside_2027q4_cost_factor).
Feed-gas recovery per TBtu
upside_2027q4_feed_gas
2027Q4 / upside3.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk all-in pass-through recovery; same value added to cost, zero EBITDA effect.
Feed gas recovery revenue
upside_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery
2027Q4 / upside2,222.64
USD_millions
derived: Not the fixed liquefaction fee. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_volume, upside_2027q4_feed_gas).
Consolidated revenue proxy
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside5,604.23
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated normalization; net other contribution sits in the cost calibration. Not a sum of intercompany segment sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_fee_revenue, upside_2027q4_feed_gas_recovery).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside2,671.09
USD_millions
derived: Feed-gas recovery and cost cancel; NCI included. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fee_revenue, upside_2027q4_cash_costs).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside375.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Stock compensation
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other adjusted-EBITDA to operating-income deductions
upside_2027q4_other_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance; no automatic derivative fair-value gain or financing gain repetition.
D&A equity expense and other deductions
upside_2027q4_noncash_deductions
2027Q4 / upside405.00
USD_millions
derived: All are already excluded from this EBITDA proxy. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_other_adjustments).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside2,266.09
USD_millions
derived: Does not forecast financing gains, NCI allocation or common EPS. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_noncash_deductions).
Additional litigation cash stress
upside_2027q4_legal_cash_stress
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Illustrative incremental cash shock; not a loss estimate, reserve, probability or cap on unresolved damages. Could occur outside this quarter.
Expensed cash interest net of cash yield
upside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside575.00
USD_millions
assumption: Cash interest excluding construction interest included in cash capex; no derivative mark treated as cash.
Cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Net working-capital and other operating cash use
upside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Expensed interest taxes working capital and legal cash stress
upside_2027q4_cfo_uses
2027Q4 / upside745.00
USD_millions
derived: No preferred or common distributions deducted inside CFO. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use, upside_2027q4_legal_cash_stress).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside1,926.09
USD_millions
derived: Explicit cash-cost bridge; does not equal common distributable cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cfo_uses).
Gross cash construction and other capex
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside2,300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk project spending including capitalized interest, deposits and shipping. No second deduction of capitalized interest.
CFO less cash capex
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside-373.91
USD_millions
derived: Before project financing and capital-holder distributions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
VGLNG Series A cash dividend
upside_2027q4_series_a_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Semiannual $135M payment assumption at 9% on outstanding Series A; declarations required. Distinct from redeemed CP Funding units.
Calcasieu non-controlling cash distribution
upside_2027q4_nci_cash
2027Q4 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Subsidiary preferred and NCI distributions
upside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions
2027Q4 / upside45.00
USD_millions
derived: Do not subtract NCI EBITDA from CFO again; only the distribution is a separate cash use. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_series_a_cash, upside_2027q4_nci_cash).
Additional common shares since July
upside_2027q4_share_growth
2027Q4 / upside15.00
shares_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Class A plus Class B shares for dividend cash
upside_2027q4_shares
2027Q4 / upside2,515.09
shares_millions
derived: Desk share progression, not diluted EPS shares. Formula: sum(common_shares, upside_2027q4_share_growth).
Shares relative to July baseline
upside_2027q4_dividend_share_factor
2027Q4 / upside100.6%
ratio
derived: Normalize shares before multiplying aggregate dividend cash. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_shares, common_shares).
Dividend rate relative to September declaration
upside_2027q4_dividend_factor
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Future board declaration required. Base repeats the $0.04/share rate; not a perpetual obligation.
Common cash dividends
upside_2027q4_common_dividends
2027Q4 / upside100.60
USD_millions
derived: Aggregate cash estimate, adjusted for explicit share progression. Formula: multiply(declared_common_cash, upside_2027q4_dividend_share_factor, upside_2027q4_dividend_factor).
CP Funding preferred redemption
upside_2027q4_preferred_redemption
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: These specific units were fully redeemed by June; VGLNG Series A remains outstanding.
Existing-facility scheduled principal allowance
upside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk repayment allowance, not a complete facility amortization/refinancing forecast. New September revolver draws and later repayment are excluded until specified.
Distributions redemption and principal
upside_2027q4_claims
2027Q4 / upside295.60
USD_millions
derived: Financing claims, separate from operating expense and cash capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q4_common_dividends, upside_2027q4_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside-669.52
USD_millions
derived: Before new borrowing and issuance fees; negative values indicate funding demand, not automatic insolvency. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside19,704.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / upside9,446.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside8,320.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside7,143.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside13,800.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside-6,656.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
upside_fy2026_subsidiary_distributions
FY2026 / upside425.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2026q3_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2026q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
upside_fy2026_common_dividends
FY2026 / upside289.13
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_common_dividends, upside_2026q3_common_dividends, upside_2026q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
upside_fy2026_preferred_redemption
FY2026 / upside1,743.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_preferred_redemption, upside_2026q3_preferred_redemption, upside_2026q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
upside_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / upside4,243.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, upside_2026q3_debt_principal, upside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / upside-13,356.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside21,727.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Consolidated adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / upside11,114.64
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside9,626.64
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside8,204.64
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Gross cash capex incl. capitalized interest ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside11,100.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside-2,895.36
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Subsidiary preferred/NCI distributions ($M)
upside_fy2027_subsidiary_distributions
FY2027 / upside450.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q2_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q3_subsidiary_distributions, upside_2027q4_subsidiary_distributions).
Common cash dividends ($M)
upside_fy2027_common_dividends
FY2027 / upside401.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_common_dividends, upside_2027q2_common_dividends, upside_2027q3_common_dividends, upside_2027q4_common_dividends).
CP Funding preferred redemption ($M)
upside_fy2027_preferred_redemption
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q2_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q3_preferred_redemption, upside_2027q4_preferred_redemption).
Debt principal repayments ($M)
upside_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / upside600.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_debt_principal, upside_2027q2_debt_principal, upside_2027q3_debt_principal, upside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after distributions and principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside-4,347.06
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

From commissioning cargo margins to financed commercial operations

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

How much LNG fee contribution survives the transition to commercial contracts and the next construction cycle?

H1 revenue was $9.177B, consolidated adjusted EBITDA $3.863B and CFO $2.835B, versus $6.900B cash capex. Consolidated net income of $2.042B differs from $1.835B attributable to common holders. H1 distributions included $135M VGLNG Series A dividends and $75M other NCI cash; $1.743B separately redeemed CP Funding preferred units. Debt principal was $42.386B at June, unrestricted cash $3.120B and restricted cash $1.470B. Annual adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $8.7B-$9.1B, including NCI, on 500-518 exported cargos. The disclosed $5.05/MMBtu fee for contracted 2026 cargos differs from assumed $12.50-$13.50 on unsold cargos and from total LNG selling price. A $1 fee change on unsold cargos moves annual EBITDA $180M-$210M. Q2 exported volume of 478.3 TBtu also differs from 466.4 TBtu sold. Plaquemines Phase 1 COD targets Q4 2026, Phase 2 mid-2027, and CP2 first LNG H2 2027. September $3B revolving capacity matures in one year; it is not cash received. September China Gas 0.5MTPA starts in 2030 and contributes nothing to this horizon.

The competing explanation

Exceptional commissioning spreads can fade as commercial SPAs start. More LNG production may then generate less fee profit per unit while CP2 and expansions continue consuming cash. Project cash restrictions and preferred/minority distributions separate consolidated results from public-common access to cash.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Completed LNG fee-mix and project-funding model, including distinct exported/sold volume, capitalized interest and capital-holder claims.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and peers quiet

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-1.9+0.0+1.750%
5 sessions-4.5+0.4+5.656%
10 sessions-6.9+0.5+7.456%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-09 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-11 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  2. [2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  5. [5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  6. [6] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  7. [7] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  8. [8] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  9. [9] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  10. [10] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  11. [11] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  12. [12] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  13. [13] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  14. [14] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  15. [15] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  16. [16] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-25-000018, 10-Q filed 2025-05-13; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  17. [17] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-25-000042, 10-Q filed 2025-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  18. [18] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  21. [21] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  22. [22] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-25-000018, 10-Q filed 2025-05-13; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  23. [23] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-25-000042, 10-Q filed 2025-08-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  24. [24] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  25. [25] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  26. [26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  27. [27] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  28. [28] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  29. [29] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  30. [30] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  31. [31] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  32. [32] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  33. [33] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  34. [34] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-25-000066, 10-Q filed 2025-11-10; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  36. [36] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-03-02; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  37. [37] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000040, 10-Q filed 2026-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0002007855-26-000062, 10-Q filed 2026-08-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:22:04+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0002007855.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T22:22:05.233837+00:00 · authored a1d68a1d320b · generated 9343f3278843 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard