$USAR
Business
USA Rare Earth is building a rare-earth mining, alloy and magnet platform. It owns legacy metal and service operations and closed the Serra Verde acquisition in September 2026, adding the Pela Ema mine in Brazil. Mine ramp, accepted magnet output and financing conditions determine the path from construction to commercial cash flow.
Three drivers
- Post-close mine utilization, TREO realization and royalty burden
- Qualified magnet shipments and legacy alloy margins
- Capital investment, acquisition cash and conditional government funding
Thesis
Our view
The completed acquisition changes the company from a largely downstream buildout into a broader operating platform. The key test is recognized external sales and cash economics after ramp costs, royalties and funding claims, not nameplate capacity alone.
What changes it
Track acquired-period revenue, inventory acceptance, closing cash/debt and milestone-qualified financing against the capital bill.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | — | — | 0.01 | 0.02 | — | — | 5.71 | 5.82 |
| Gross profit ($M) | — | — | 0.03 | 0.04 | — | — | 0.13 | -1.64 |
| Operating income ($M) | -2.05 | -5.9†6 | -8.77 | -8.88 | -15.95 | -26.1†6 | -36.77 | -46.38 |
| Net income ($M) | -1.99 | -6.8†10 | 51.811 | -142.512 | -156.79 | -50.2†10 | -67.011 | -10.312 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -0.0313 | — | 0.5814 | -1.5415 | -1.6413 | — | -0.3414 | -0.0515 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 59.516 | — | 83.117 | 92.818 | 102.616 | — | 196.517 | 230.118 |
| Cash ($M) | 0.119 | 16.820 | 23.421 | 121.822 | 257.623 | 359.922 | 1,749.624 | 1,530.122 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | -1.2†25 | -3.5†26 | -10.327 | -7.9†28 | -2.8†25 | -27.9†26 | -18.527 | -56.9†28 |
| Capex ($M) | — | — | 2.029 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Free cash flow ($M) | — | — | -12.3†30 | — | — | — | — | — |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 9.2 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 27.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 40.6 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 50.7 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Closed Serra Verde acquisition, mine ramp and magnet funding cash
Preserve USAR reported H1 history and consolidate Serra Verde only from the September 3 close. Drive mine sales from average operating capacity, utilization, recognized-quarter fraction and realized TREO price; separately forecast legacy alloys/engineering and accepted magnet sales. Deduct cash production cost, project overhead, royalties and depreciation. Bridge operating profit to cash with treasury income, working capital and acquisition costs. Compare operating/capital burn with net acquisition and conditional minority-investment cash; do not assume undrawn government facilities are proceeds.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| revenue | H1 / June 2026 | 11.52 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| cfo | H1 / June 2026 | -75.32 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| capex | H1 / June 2026 | 108.39 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| H1 CFO less capex | H1 2026 | -183.71 | derived. Equipment deposits remain cash investment. |
| cash | H1 / June 2026 | 1,530.15 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| restricted | H1 / June 2026 | 64.22 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| acquisition gross cash | Pro forma / closing reference | 300.00 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| USAR shares issued for Serra Verde | 2026-09-03 | 126.85 | reported. Closing consideration in millions of shares; not the combined diluted denominator. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| sv june cash | Pro forma / closing reference | 162.41 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| sv h1 revenue | Pro forma / closing reference | 0.59 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| dfc june principal | Pro forma / closing reference | 425.00 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| dfc extinguished | Pro forma / closing reference | 100.00 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| DFC initial principal after incremental extinguishment | Closing reference | 325.00 | derived. Excludes any other post-June draws or repayments; not a complete acquisition-date debt balance. |
| transaction cost reference | Pro forma / closing reference | 96.37 | reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04 |
| government grant capacity | H1 / June 2026 | 277.00 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| government loan capacity | H1 / June 2026 | 1,300.00 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| government deferred cost | H1 / June 2026 | 912.09 | reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10 |
| Year-end annual TREO run-rate target | 2026 year end | 400,000.0% | management guidance. Physical tonnes per year, encoded as a count; not shipped tonnage or revenue. Source · 2026-09-04 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Post-close mine revenue ($M) | Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) | Accepted magnet sales ($M) | Net acquisition cash ($M) | Operating income proxy ($M) | Gross contribution before D&A ($M) | Minority investment cash ($M) | Cash after business investing ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -143.94 | -253.94 | 110.00 | 6.69 | 0.69 | 6.00 | 0.00 | 170.00 | -149.00 | -3.96 | 0.00 | -423.94 |
| 2026Q4 | -109.19 | -259.19 | 150.00 | 13.76 | 6.74 | 6.50 | 0.52 | 0.00 | -108.38 | -12.27 | 0.00 | -259.19 |
| 2027Q1 | -100.89 | -260.89 | 160.00 | 17.71 | 9.40 | 7.00 | 1.30 | 0.00 | -96.07 | -12.08 | 0.00 | -260.89 |
| 2027Q2 | -110.68 | -290.68 | 180.00 | 21.10 | 11.00 | 7.50 | 2.60 | 0.00 | -103.87 | -12.04 | 32.40 | -323.08 |
| FY2026 | -328.45 | -696.84 | 368.39 | 31.96 | 7.42 | 24.02 | 0.52 | 170.00 | -340.37 | -16.14 | 0.00 | -866.84 |
| FY2027 | -460.05 | -1,220.05 | 760.00 | 93.81 | 49.56 | 31.00 | 13.26 | 0.00 | -428.80 | -45.70 | 32.40 | -1,252.45 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Post-close mine revenue ($M) | Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) | Accepted magnet sales ($M) | Net acquisition cash ($M) | Operating income proxy ($M) | Gross contribution before D&A ($M) | Minority investment cash ($M) | Cash after business investing ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -131.18 | -231.18 | 100.00 | 9.20 | 2.40 | 6.50 | 0.30 | 160.00 | -136.58 | -1.46 | 0.00 | -391.18 |
| 2026Q4 | -86.68 | -216.68 | 130.00 | 27.50 | 18.00 | 8.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | -86.88 | -0.93 | 32.40 | -249.08 |
| 2027Q1 | -73.81 | -223.81 | 150.00 | 40.60 | 27.00 | 10.00 | 3.60 | 0.00 | -70.02 | 3.40 | 0.00 | -223.81 |
| 2027Q2 | -81.01 | -251.01 | 170.00 | 50.70 | 31.50 | 12.00 | 7.20 | 0.00 | -75.21 | 5.44 | 0.00 | -251.01 |
| FY2026 | -293.18 | -631.57 | 338.39 | 48.22 | 20.40 | 26.02 | 1.80 | 160.00 | -306.45 | -2.29 | 32.40 | -823.97 |
| FY2027 | -336.31 | -1,056.31 | 720.00 | 219.10 | 130.50 | 52.00 | 36.60 | 0.00 | -309.12 | 27.73 | 0.00 | -1,056.31 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Post-close mine revenue ($M) | Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) | Accepted magnet sales ($M) | Net acquisition cash ($M) | Operating income proxy ($M) | Gross contribution before D&A ($M) | Minority investment cash ($M) | Cash after business investing ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -126.98 | -236.98 | 110.00 | 12.09 | 4.43 | 7.00 | 0.66 | 150.00 | -132.59 | 0.65 | 0.00 | -386.98 |
| 2026Q4 | -72.80 | -212.80 | 140.00 | 43.56 | 31.92 | 9.00 | 2.64 | 0.00 | -73.61 | 10.92 | 32.40 | -245.20 |
| 2027Q1 | -60.99 | -220.99 | 160.00 | 56.22 | 37.62 | 12.00 | 6.60 | 0.00 | -57.81 | 13.87 | 0.00 | -220.99 |
| 2027Q2 | -64.79 | -254.79 | 190.00 | 75.13 | 46.93 | 15.00 | 13.20 | 0.00 | -59.60 | 19.42 | 0.00 | -254.79 |
| FY2026 | -275.10 | -633.49 | 358.39 | 67.17 | 36.35 | 27.52 | 3.30 | 150.00 | -289.18 | 11.67 | 32.40 | -815.89 |
| FY2027 | -262.61 | -1,072.61 | 810.00 | 339.69 | 200.07 | 69.00 | 70.62 | 0.00 | -237.86 | 92.55 | 0.00 | -1,072.61 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| revenue h1_revenue | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 11.52 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| legacy revenue h1_legacy_revenue | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 11.52 USD_millions | reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| mine revenue h1_mine_revenue | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| magnet revenue h1_magnet_revenue | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| operating income h1_operating_income | H1 / June 2026 / shared | -82.99 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| cfo h1_cfo | H1 / June 2026 / shared | -75.32 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| capex h1_capex | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 108.39 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| acquisition cash h1_acquisition_cash | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| minority investment h1_minority_investment | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| reported gross h1_reported_gross | H1 / June 2026 / shared | -1.48 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| da h1_da | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 4.29 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| sbc h1_sbc | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 11.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| treasury income h1_treasury_income | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 26.92 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| cash cash | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 1,530.15 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| restricted restricted | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 64.22 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| government deferred cost government_deferred_cost | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 912.09 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| government grant capacity government_grant_capacity | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 277.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| government loan capacity government_loan_capacity | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 1,300.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| h1 pipe h1_pipe | H1 / June 2026 / shared | 1,500.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10 |
| H1 assumed production D&A allocation h1_production_da_allocation | H1 2026 / shared | 1.58 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation of reported total depreciation to production for analytical pre-D&A comparison; not a disclosed segment metric. |
| H1 gross contribution before assumed production D&A h1_gross_contribution | H1 2026 / shared | 0.10 USD_millions | derived: Analytical allocation, not reported EBITDA or segment gross profit. Formula: sum(h1_reported_gross, h1_production_da_allocation). |
| H1 CFO less capex h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | -183.71 USD_millions | derived: Equipment deposits remain cash investment. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| H1 net acquisitions and minority investment h1_other_investments | H1 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No Serra Verde acquisition in H1 reported history. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, h1_minority_investment). |
| H1 cash after business investing h1_cash_after_investing | H1 2026 / shared | -183.71 USD_millions | derived: Future acquisition cannot alter filed H1 USAR cash. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_other_investments). |
| acquisition gross cash acquisition_gross_cash | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 300.00 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| sv june cash sv_june_cash | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 162.41 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| sv h1 revenue sv_h1_revenue | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 0.59 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| dfc june principal dfc_june_principal | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 425.00 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| dfc extinguished dfc_extinguished | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 100.00 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| transaction cost reference transaction_cost_reference | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 96.37 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| royalty current royalty_current | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 19.43 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| royalty proforma long royalty_proforma_long | Pro forma / closing reference / shared | 207.43 USD_millions | reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| DFC initial principal after incremental extinguishment dfc_remaining_reference | Closing reference / shared | 325.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes any other post-June draws or repayments; not a complete acquisition-date debt balance. Formula: subtract(dfc_june_principal, dfc_extinguished). |
| USAR shares issued for Serra Verde acquisition_shares | 2026-09-03 / shared | 126.85 shares_millions | reported: Closing consideration in millions of shares; not the combined diluted denominator. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| Combined variable royalty reference royalty_rate | Contract reference / shared | 5.2% ratio | reported: Two royalty rates of 2.625% following October 2024 amendment; contractual minimum cash is separate. Primary source · 2026-04-20 |
| Year-end annual TREO run-rate target yearend_runrate | 2026 year end / shared | 400,000.0% ratio | management guidance: Physical tonnes per year, encoded as a count; not shipped tonnage or revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-04 |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2026q3_average_capacity | 2026Q3 / downside | 250,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2026q3_mine_utilization | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction | 2026Q3 / downside | 33.3% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q3 / downside | 3,125.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_average_capacity, downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction, downside_2026q3_mine_utilization, downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2026q3_treo_price | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2026q3_mine_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2026q3_magnet_price | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, downside_2026q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 6.69 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.55 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q3 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 4.58 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 5.13 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2026q3_legacy_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2026q3_legacy_gross | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.48 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2026q3_mine_gross | 2026Q3 / downside | -4.44 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2026q3_magnet_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | -100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2026q3_magnet_gross | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2026q3_gross_contribution | 2026Q3 / downside | -3.96 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_gross, downside_2026q3_mine_gross, downside_2026q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2026q3_royalty_variable | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.04 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2026q3_royalty_topup | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2026q3_royalty_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.04 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_royalty_variable, downside_2026q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2026q3_transaction_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2026q3_cash_overhead | 2026Q3 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2026q3_operating_costs | 2026Q3 / downside | 145.04 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_overhead, downside_2026q3_royalty_cash, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | -149.00 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_contribution, downside_2026q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2026q3_dfc_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2026q3_interest_fraction | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2026q3_dfc_interest | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.44 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2026q3_dfc_rate, downside_2026q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2026q3_treasury_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2026q3_cash_earnings | 2026Q3 / downside | -126.00 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2026q3_working_capital | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 17.94 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_dfc_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | -143.94 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_earnings, downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 110.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | -253.94 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2026q3_acquired_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 130.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash | 2026Q3 / downside | 170.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, downside_2026q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2026q3_minority_investment | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2026q3_other_investing | 2026Q3 / downside | 170.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing | 2026Q3 / downside | -423.94 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 6.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2026q4_average_capacity | 2026Q4 / downside | 350,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2026q4_mine_utilization | 2026Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction | 2026Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q4 / downside | 30,625.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_average_capacity, downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction, downside_2026q4_mine_utilization, downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2026q4_treo_price | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2026q4_mine_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 6.74 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2026q4_magnet_price | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.52 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, downside_2026q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.76 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 5.36 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 19.11 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2026q4_legacy_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2026q4_legacy_gross | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.52 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2026q4_mine_gross | 2026Q4 / downside | -12.37 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2026q4_magnet_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | -81.2% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2026q4_magnet_gross | 2026Q4 / downside | -0.42 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2026q4_gross_contribution | 2026Q4 / downside | -12.27 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_gross, downside_2026q4_mine_gross, downside_2026q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2026q4_royalty_variable | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.35 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2026q4_royalty_topup | 2026Q4 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2026q4_royalty_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 5.35 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_royalty_variable, downside_2026q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2026q4_transaction_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2026q4_cash_overhead | 2026Q4 / downside | 53.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2026q4_operating_costs | 2026Q4 / downside | 96.10 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_overhead, downside_2026q4_royalty_cash, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | -108.38 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_contribution, downside_2026q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2026q4_dfc_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2026q4_interest_fraction | 2026Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2026q4_dfc_interest | 2026Q4 / downside | 7.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2026q4_dfc_rate, downside_2026q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2026q4_treasury_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2026q4_cash_earnings | 2026Q4 / downside | -81.38 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2026q4_working_capital | 2026Q4 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 27.81 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_dfc_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | -109.19 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_earnings, downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | -259.19 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash downside_2026q4_new_acquisition | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2026q4_acquired_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_new_acquisition, downside_2026q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2026q4_minority_investment | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2026q4_other_investing | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing | 2026Q4 / downside | -259.19 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2027q1_average_capacity | 2027Q1 / downside | 380,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2027q1_mine_utilization | 2027Q1 / downside | 45.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction | 2027Q1 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q1 / downside | 42,750.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_average_capacity, downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q1_mine_utilization, downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2027q1_treo_price | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2027q1_mine_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.40 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q1_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q1 / downside | 2,500.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2027q1_magnet_price | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1.30 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q1_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 17.71 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.48 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q1 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 21.23 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2027q1_legacy_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2027q1_legacy_gross | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.56 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q1_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2027q1_mine_gross | 2027Q1 / downside | -11.83 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2027q1_magnet_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | -62.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2027q1_magnet_gross | 2027Q1 / downside | -0.81 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q1_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2027q1_gross_contribution | 2027Q1 / downside | -12.08 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_gross, downside_2027q1_mine_gross, downside_2027q1_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2027q1_royalty_variable | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.49 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2027q1_royalty_topup | 2027Q1 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2027q1_royalty_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 5.49 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_royalty_variable, downside_2027q1_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2027q1_transaction_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2027q1_cash_overhead | 2027Q1 / downside | 57.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2027q1_operating_costs | 2027Q1 / downside | 83.99 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_overhead, downside_2027q1_royalty_cash, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | -96.07 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_contribution, downside_2027q1_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2027q1_dfc_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2027q1_interest_fraction | 2027Q1 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2027q1_dfc_interest | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q1_dfc_rate, downside_2027q1_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2027q1_treasury_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2027q1_cash_earnings | 2027Q1 / downside | -68.07 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2027q1_working_capital | 2027Q1 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 32.81 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_dfc_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | -100.89 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_earnings, downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -260.89 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash downside_2027q1_new_acquisition | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2027q1_acquired_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_new_acquisition, downside_2027q1_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2027q1_minority_investment | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2027q1_other_investing | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q1_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing | 2027Q1 / downside | -260.89 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 7.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2027q2_average_capacity | 2027Q2 / downside | 400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2027q2_mine_utilization | 2027Q2 / downside | 50.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction | 2027Q2 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q2 / downside | 50,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_average_capacity, downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q2_mine_utilization, downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2027q2_treo_price | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2027q2_mine_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q2_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q2 / downside | 5,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2027q2_magnet_price | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 2.60 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q2_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 21.10 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.75 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q2 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 22.50 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2027q2_legacy_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2027q2_legacy_gross | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.60 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2027q2_mine_gross | 2027Q2 / downside | -11.50 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2027q2_magnet_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | -43.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2027q2_magnet_gross | 2027Q2 / downside | -1.14 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2027q2_gross_contribution | 2027Q2 / downside | -12.04 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_gross, downside_2027q2_mine_gross, downside_2027q2_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2027q2_royalty_variable | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.58 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2027q2_royalty_topup | 2027Q2 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2027q2_royalty_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 5.58 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_royalty_variable, downside_2027q2_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2027q2_transaction_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2027q2_cash_overhead | 2027Q2 / downside | 61.25 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2027q2_operating_costs | 2027Q2 / downside | 91.83 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_overhead, downside_2027q2_royalty_cash, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | -103.87 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_contribution, downside_2027q2_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2027q2_dfc_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2027q2_interest_fraction | 2027Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2027q2_dfc_interest | 2027Q2 / downside | 7.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q2_dfc_rate, downside_2027q2_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2027q2_treasury_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2027q2_cash_earnings | 2027Q2 / downside | -72.87 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2027q2_working_capital | 2027Q2 / downside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 37.81 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_dfc_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | -110.68 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_earnings, downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -290.68 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash downside_2027q2_new_acquisition | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2027q2_acquired_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_new_acquisition, downside_2027q2_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2027q2_minority_investment | 2027Q2 / downside | 32.40 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2027q2_other_investing | 2027Q2 / downside | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing | 2027Q2 / downside | -323.08 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2027q3_average_capacity | 2027Q3 / downside | 440,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2027q3_mine_utilization | 2027Q3 / downside | 55.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction | 2027Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q3 / downside | 60,500.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_average_capacity, downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q3_mine_utilization, downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2027q3_treo_price | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2027q3_mine_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q3 / downside | 8,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2027q3_magnet_price | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 4.16 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.47 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.59 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 24.34 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2027q3_legacy_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2027q3_legacy_gross | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.64 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2027q3_mine_gross | 2027Q3 / downside | -11.03 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2027q3_magnet_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | -25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2027q3_magnet_gross | 2027Q3 / downside | -1.04 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2027q3_gross_contribution | 2027Q3 / downside | -11.43 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_gross, downside_2027q3_mine_gross, downside_2027q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2027q3_royalty_variable | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.70 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2027q3_royalty_topup | 2027Q3 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2027q3_royalty_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 5.70 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_royalty_variable, downside_2027q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2027q3_transaction_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2027q3_cash_overhead | 2027Q3 / downside | 65.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2027q3_operating_costs | 2027Q3 / downside | 99.70 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_overhead, downside_2027q3_royalty_cash, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | -111.13 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_contribution, downside_2027q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2027q3_dfc_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2027q3_interest_fraction | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2027q3_dfc_interest | 2027Q3 / downside | 7.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q3_dfc_rate, downside_2027q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2027q3_treasury_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2027q3_cash_earnings | 2027Q3 / downside | -77.13 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2027q3_working_capital | 2027Q3 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 42.81 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_dfc_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | -119.94 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_earnings, downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -319.94 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash downside_2027q3_new_acquisition | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2027q3_acquired_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_new_acquisition, downside_2027q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2027q3_minority_investment | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2027q3_other_investing | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing | 2027Q3 / downside | -319.94 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity downside_2027q4_average_capacity | 2027Q4 / downside | 480,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor downside_2027q4_mine_utilization | 2027Q4 / downside | 60.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction | 2027Q4 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q4 / downside | 72,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_average_capacity, downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q4_mine_utilization, downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne downside_2027q4_treo_price | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue downside_2027q4_mine_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 15.84 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes downside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q4 / downside | 10,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne downside_2027q4_magnet_price | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 5.20 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 29.54 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne downside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.02 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost downside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.60 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.75 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost downside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 26.35 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A downside_2027q4_legacy_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution downside_2027q4_legacy_gross | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.68 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production downside_2027q4_mine_gross | 2027Q4 / downside | -10.51 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin downside_2027q4_magnet_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | -6.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution downside_2027q4_magnet_gross | 2027Q4 / downside | -0.33 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty downside_2027q4_gross_contribution | 2027Q4 / downside | -10.16 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_gross, downside_2027q4_mine_gross, downside_2027q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty downside_2027q4_royalty_variable | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.83 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up downside_2027q4_royalty_topup | 2027Q4 / downside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance downside_2027q4_royalty_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 5.83 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_royalty_variable, downside_2027q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy downside_2027q4_transaction_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development downside_2027q4_cash_overhead | 2027Q4 / downside | 68.75 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs downside_2027q4_operating_costs | 2027Q4 / downside | 107.58 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_overhead, downside_2027q4_royalty_cash, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | -117.74 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_contribution, downside_2027q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption downside_2027q4_dfc_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction downside_2027q4_interest_fraction | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy downside_2027q4_dfc_interest | 2027Q4 / downside | 7.31 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q4_dfc_rate, downside_2027q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income downside_2027q4_treasury_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income downside_2027q4_cash_earnings | 2027Q4 / downside | -80.74 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use downside_2027q4_working_capital | 2027Q4 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 47.81 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_dfc_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | -128.55 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_earnings, downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | -348.55 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash downside_2027q4_new_acquisition | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing downside_2027q4_acquired_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_new_acquisition, downside_2027q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash downside_2027q4_minority_investment | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash downside_2027q4_other_investing | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing | 2027Q4 / downside | -348.55 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_other_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 31.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_legacy_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 24.02 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_mine_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 7.42 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) downside_fy2026_magnet_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 0.52 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_contribution | FY2026 / downside | -16.14 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, downside_2026q3_gross_contribution, downside_2026q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | -340.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | -328.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 368.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | -696.84 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) downside_fy2026_acquisition_cash | FY2026 / downside | 170.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) downside_fy2026_minority_investment | FY2026 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, downside_2026q3_minority_investment, downside_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_investing | FY2026 / downside | -866.84 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 93.81 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_legacy_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 31.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_mine_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 49.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) downside_fy2027_magnet_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 13.26 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_contribution | FY2027 / downside | -45.70 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_contribution, downside_2027q2_gross_contribution, downside_2027q3_gross_contribution, downside_2027q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | -428.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | -460.05 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 760.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | -1,220.05 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) downside_fy2027_acquisition_cash | FY2027 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) downside_fy2027_minority_investment | FY2027 / downside | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_minority_investment, downside_2027q2_minority_investment, downside_2027q3_minority_investment, downside_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_investing | FY2027 / downside | -1,252.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2026q3_legacy_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 6.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2026q3_average_capacity | 2026Q3 / base | 400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2026q3_mine_utilization | 2026Q3 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2026q3_ownership_fraction | 2026Q3 / base | 33.3% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q3 / base | 8,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_average_capacity, base_2026q3_quarter_fraction, base_2026q3_mine_utilization, base_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2026q3_treo_price | 2026Q3 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2026q3_mine_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 2.40 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2026q3_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q3 / base | 500.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2026q3_magnet_price | 2026Q3 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2026q3_magnet_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 0.30 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, base_2026q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 9.20 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2026q3_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2026q3_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 1.12 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2026q3_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q3 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 3.67 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, base_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2026q3_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 4.79 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, base_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2026q3_legacy_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2026q3_legacy_gross | 2026Q3 / base | 1.17 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2026q3_mine_gross | 2026Q3 / base | -2.39 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2026q3_magnet_margin | 2026Q3 / base | -80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2026q3_magnet_gross | 2026Q3 / base | -0.24 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_magnet_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2026q3_gross_contribution | 2026Q3 / base | -1.46 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_gross, base_2026q3_mine_gross, base_2026q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2026q3_royalty_variable | 2026Q3 / base | 0.13 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2026q3_royalty_topup | 2026Q3 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2026q3_royalty_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 2.13 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_royalty_variable, base_2026q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2026q3_transaction_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2026q3_cash_overhead | 2026Q3 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2026q3_operating_costs | 2026Q3 / base | 135.13 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_overhead, base_2026q3_royalty_cash, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | -136.58 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_contribution, base_2026q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2026q3_dfc_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2026q3_interest_fraction | 2026Q3 / base | 8.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2026q3_dfc_interest | 2026Q3 / base | 2.10 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2026q3_dfc_rate, base_2026q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2026q3_treasury_income | 2026Q3 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2026q3_cash_earnings | 2026Q3 / base | -113.58 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2026q3_working_capital | 2026Q3 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 17.60 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_dfc_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | -131.18 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_earnings, base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | -231.18 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2026q3_acquired_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2026q3_acquisition_cash | 2026Q3 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, base_2026q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2026q3_minority_investment | 2026Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2026q3_other_investing | 2026Q3 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2026q3_cash_after_investing | 2026Q3 / base | -391.18 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2026q4_legacy_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2026q4_average_capacity | 2026Q4 / base | 400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2026q4_mine_utilization | 2026Q4 / base | 60.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2026q4_ownership_fraction | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q4 / base | 60,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_average_capacity, base_2026q4_quarter_fraction, base_2026q4_mine_utilization, base_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2026q4_treo_price | 2026Q4 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2026q4_mine_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 18.00 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2026q4_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q4 / base | 2,500.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2026q4_magnet_price | 2026Q4 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2026q4_magnet_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1.50 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, base_2026q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 27.50 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2026q4_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2026q4_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 8.40 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2026q4_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, base_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2026q4_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 19.40 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, base_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2026q4_legacy_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2026q4_legacy_gross | 2026Q4 / base | 1.44 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2026q4_mine_gross | 2026Q4 / base | -1.40 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2026q4_magnet_margin | 2026Q4 / base | -65.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2026q4_magnet_gross | 2026Q4 / base | -0.98 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_magnet_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2026q4_gross_contribution | 2026Q4 / base | -0.93 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_gross, base_2026q4_mine_gross, base_2026q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2026q4_royalty_variable | 2026Q4 / base | 0.94 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2026q4_royalty_topup | 2026Q4 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2026q4_royalty_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 5.95 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_royalty_variable, base_2026q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2026q4_transaction_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2026q4_cash_overhead | 2026Q4 / base | 43.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2026q4_operating_costs | 2026Q4 / base | 85.94 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_overhead, base_2026q4_royalty_cash, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | -86.88 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_contribution, base_2026q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2026q4_dfc_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2026q4_interest_fraction | 2026Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2026q4_dfc_interest | 2026Q4 / base | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2026q4_dfc_rate, base_2026q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2026q4_treasury_income | 2026Q4 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2026q4_cash_earnings | 2026Q4 / base | -59.88 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2026q4_working_capital | 2026Q4 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 26.80 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_dfc_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | -86.68 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_earnings, base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 130.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | -216.68 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash base_2026q4_new_acquisition | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2026q4_acquired_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2026q4_acquisition_cash | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_new_acquisition, base_2026q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2026q4_minority_investment | 2026Q4 / base | 32.40 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2026q4_other_investing | 2026Q4 / base | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2026q4_cash_after_investing | 2026Q4 / base | -249.08 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2027q1_legacy_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2027q1_average_capacity | 2027Q1 / base | 400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2027q1_mine_utilization | 2027Q1 / base | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2027q1_ownership_fraction | 2027Q1 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q1 / base | 90,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_average_capacity, base_2027q1_quarter_fraction, base_2027q1_mine_utilization, base_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2027q1_treo_price | 2027Q1 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2027q1_mine_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 27.00 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q1_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2027q1_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q1 / base | 6,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2027q1_magnet_price | 2027Q1 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2027q1_magnet_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 3.60 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q1_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 40.60 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q1_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2027q1_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2027q1_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 12.60 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q1_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2027q1_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q1 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2027q1_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 23.60 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2027q1_legacy_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2027q1_legacy_gross | 2027Q1 / base | 1.80 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q1_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2027q1_mine_gross | 2027Q1 / base | 3.40 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q1_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2027q1_magnet_margin | 2027Q1 / base | -50.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2027q1_magnet_gross | 2027Q1 / base | -1.80 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_magnet_revenue, base_2027q1_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2027q1_gross_contribution | 2027Q1 / base | 3.40 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_gross, base_2027q1_mine_gross, base_2027q1_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2027q1_royalty_variable | 2027Q1 / base | 1.42 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2027q1_royalty_topup | 2027Q1 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2027q1_royalty_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 6.42 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_royalty_variable, base_2027q1_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2027q1_transaction_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2027q1_cash_overhead | 2027Q1 / base | 46.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2027q1_operating_costs | 2027Q1 / base | 73.42 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_overhead, base_2027q1_royalty_cash, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | -70.02 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_contribution, base_2027q1_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2027q1_dfc_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2027q1_interest_fraction | 2027Q1 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2027q1_dfc_interest | 2027Q1 / base | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q1_dfc_rate, base_2027q1_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2027q1_treasury_income | 2027Q1 / base | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2027q1_cash_earnings | 2027Q1 / base | -42.02 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2027q1_working_capital | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 31.80 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_dfc_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | -73.81 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_earnings, base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | -223.81 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash base_2027q1_new_acquisition | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2027q1_acquired_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2027q1_acquisition_cash | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_new_acquisition, base_2027q1_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2027q1_minority_investment | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2027q1_other_investing | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q1_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2027q1_cash_after_investing | 2027Q1 / base | -223.81 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2027q2_legacy_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2027q2_average_capacity | 2027Q2 / base | 480,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2027q2_mine_utilization | 2027Q2 / base | 87.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2027q2_ownership_fraction | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q2 / base | 105,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_average_capacity, base_2027q2_quarter_fraction, base_2027q2_mine_utilization, base_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2027q2_treo_price | 2027Q2 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2027q2_mine_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 31.50 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q2_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2027q2_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q2 / base | 12,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2027q2_magnet_price | 2027Q2 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2027q2_magnet_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 7.20 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q2_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 50.70 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2027q2_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2027q2_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 14.70 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q2_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2027q2_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q2 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2027q2_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 25.70 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2027q2_legacy_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2027q2_legacy_gross | 2027Q2 / base | 2.16 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2027q2_mine_gross | 2027Q2 / base | 5.80 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2027q2_magnet_margin | 2027Q2 / base | -35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2027q2_magnet_gross | 2027Q2 / base | -2.52 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_magnet_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2027q2_gross_contribution | 2027Q2 / base | 5.44 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_gross, base_2027q2_mine_gross, base_2027q2_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2027q2_royalty_variable | 2027Q2 / base | 1.65 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2027q2_royalty_topup | 2027Q2 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2027q2_royalty_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 6.65 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_royalty_variable, base_2027q2_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2027q2_transaction_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2027q2_cash_overhead | 2027Q2 / base | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2027q2_operating_costs | 2027Q2 / base | 80.65 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_overhead, base_2027q2_royalty_cash, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | -75.21 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_contribution, base_2027q2_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2027q2_dfc_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2027q2_interest_fraction | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2027q2_dfc_interest | 2027Q2 / base | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q2_dfc_rate, base_2027q2_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2027q2_treasury_income | 2027Q2 / base | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2027q2_cash_earnings | 2027Q2 / base | -44.21 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2027q2_working_capital | 2027Q2 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 36.80 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_dfc_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | -81.01 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_earnings, base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | -251.01 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash base_2027q2_new_acquisition | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2027q2_acquired_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2027q2_acquisition_cash | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_new_acquisition, base_2027q2_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2027q2_minority_investment | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2027q2_other_investing | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2027q2_cash_after_investing | 2027Q2 / base | -251.01 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2027q3_legacy_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2027q3_average_capacity | 2027Q3 / base | 580,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2027q3_mine_utilization | 2027Q3 / base | 79.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2027q3_ownership_fraction | 2027Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q3 / base | 115,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_average_capacity, base_2027q3_quarter_fraction, base_2027q3_mine_utilization, base_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2027q3_treo_price | 2027Q3 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2027q3_mine_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 34.50 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2027q3_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q3 / base | 18,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2027q3_magnet_price | 2027Q3 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2027q3_magnet_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 10.80 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 59.30 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2027q3_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2027q3_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2027q3_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q3 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2027q3_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 27.10 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2027q3_legacy_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2027q3_legacy_gross | 2027Q3 / base | 2.52 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2027q3_mine_gross | 2027Q3 / base | 7.40 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2027q3_magnet_margin | 2027Q3 / base | -20.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2027q3_magnet_gross | 2027Q3 / base | -2.16 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_magnet_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2027q3_gross_contribution | 2027Q3 / base | 7.76 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_gross, base_2027q3_mine_gross, base_2027q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2027q3_royalty_variable | 2027Q3 / base | 1.81 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2027q3_royalty_topup | 2027Q3 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2027q3_royalty_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 6.81 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_royalty_variable, base_2027q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2027q3_transaction_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2027q3_cash_overhead | 2027Q3 / base | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2027q3_operating_costs | 2027Q3 / base | 87.81 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_overhead, base_2027q3_royalty_cash, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | -80.05 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_contribution, base_2027q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2027q3_dfc_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2027q3_interest_fraction | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2027q3_dfc_interest | 2027Q3 / base | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q3_dfc_rate, base_2027q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2027q3_treasury_income | 2027Q3 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2027q3_cash_earnings | 2027Q3 / base | -46.05 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2027q3_working_capital | 2027Q3 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 41.80 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_dfc_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | -87.85 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_earnings, base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | -277.85 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash base_2027q3_new_acquisition | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2027q3_acquired_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2027q3_acquisition_cash | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_new_acquisition, base_2027q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2027q3_minority_investment | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2027q3_other_investing | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2027q3_cash_after_investing | 2027Q3 / base | -277.85 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue base_2027q4_legacy_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity base_2027q4_average_capacity | 2027Q4 / base | 640,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction base_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor base_2027q4_mine_utilization | 2027Q4 / base | 78.1% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter base_2027q4_ownership_fraction | 2027Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q4 / base | 125,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_average_capacity, base_2027q4_quarter_fraction, base_2027q4_mine_utilization, base_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne base_2027q4_treo_price | 2027Q4 / base | 0.03 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue base_2027q4_mine_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 37.50 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes base_2027q4_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q4 / base | 25,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne base_2027q4_magnet_price | 2027Q4 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales base_2027q4_magnet_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 68.50 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne base_2027q4_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost base_2027q4_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 17.50 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost base_2027q4_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost base_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost base_2027q4_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 28.50 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A base_2027q4_legacy_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution base_2027q4_legacy_gross | 2027Q4 / base | 2.88 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production base_2027q4_mine_gross | 2027Q4 / base | 9.00 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin base_2027q4_magnet_margin | 2027Q4 / base | -5.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution base_2027q4_magnet_gross | 2027Q4 / base | -0.75 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_magnet_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty base_2027q4_gross_contribution | 2027Q4 / base | 11.13 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_gross, base_2027q4_mine_gross, base_2027q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty base_2027q4_royalty_variable | 2027Q4 / base | 1.97 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up base_2027q4_royalty_topup | 2027Q4 / base | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance base_2027q4_royalty_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 6.97 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_royalty_variable, base_2027q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy base_2027q4_transaction_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development base_2027q4_cash_overhead | 2027Q4 / base | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs base_2027q4_operating_costs | 2027Q4 / base | 94.97 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_overhead, base_2027q4_royalty_cash, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | -83.84 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_contribution, base_2027q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption base_2027q4_dfc_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 7.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction base_2027q4_interest_fraction | 2027Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy base_2027q4_dfc_interest | 2027Q4 / base | 6.30 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q4_dfc_rate, base_2027q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income base_2027q4_treasury_income | 2027Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income base_2027q4_cash_earnings | 2027Q4 / base | -46.84 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use base_2027q4_working_capital | 2027Q4 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 46.80 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_dfc_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | -93.64 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_earnings, base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 210.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | -303.64 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash base_2027q4_new_acquisition | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing base_2027q4_acquired_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash base_2027q4_acquisition_cash | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_new_acquisition, base_2027q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash base_2027q4_minority_investment | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash base_2027q4_other_investing | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing base_2027q4_cash_after_investing | 2027Q4 / base | -303.64 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_other_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 48.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) base_fy2026_legacy_revenue | FY2026 / base | 26.02 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) base_fy2026_mine_revenue | FY2026 / base | 20.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) base_fy2026_magnet_revenue | FY2026 / base | 1.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) base_fy2026_gross_contribution | FY2026 / base | -2.29 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, base_2026q3_gross_contribution, base_2026q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | -306.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | -293.18 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 338.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | -631.57 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) base_fy2026_acquisition_cash | FY2026 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) base_fy2026_minority_investment | FY2026 / base | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, base_2026q3_minority_investment, base_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_investing | FY2026 / base | -823.97 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, base_2026q3_cash_after_investing, base_2026q4_cash_after_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 219.10 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) base_fy2027_legacy_revenue | FY2027 / base | 52.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) base_fy2027_mine_revenue | FY2027 / base | 130.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) base_fy2027_magnet_revenue | FY2027 / base | 36.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_magnet_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) base_fy2027_gross_contribution | FY2027 / base | 27.73 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_contribution, base_2027q2_gross_contribution, base_2027q3_gross_contribution, base_2027q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | -309.12 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | -336.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 720.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | -1,056.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) base_fy2027_acquisition_cash | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) base_fy2027_minority_investment | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_minority_investment, base_2027q2_minority_investment, base_2027q3_minority_investment, base_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_investing | FY2027 / base | -1,056.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investing, base_2027q2_cash_after_investing, base_2027q3_cash_after_investing, base_2027q4_cash_after_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2026q3_average_capacity | 2026Q3 / upside | 400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2026q3_mine_utilization | 2026Q3 / upside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction | 2026Q3 / upside | 33.3% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q3 / upside | 11,666.7% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_average_capacity, upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction, upside_2026q3_mine_utilization, upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2026q3_treo_price | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2026q3_mine_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 4.43 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2026q3_magnet_price | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.66 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, upside_2026q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 12.09 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 1.55 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q3 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 3.48 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 5.03 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2026q3_legacy_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2026q3_legacy_gross | 2026Q3 / upside | 1.75 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2026q3_mine_gross | 2026Q3 / upside | -0.60 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2026q3_magnet_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | -76.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2026q3_magnet_gross | 2026Q3 / upside | -0.50 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2026q3_gross_contribution | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.65 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_gross, upside_2026q3_mine_gross, upside_2026q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2026q3_royalty_variable | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.23 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2026q3_royalty_topup | 2026Q3 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2026q3_royalty_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 2.23 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_royalty_variable, upside_2026q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2026q3_transaction_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2026q3_cash_overhead | 2026Q3 / upside | 38.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2026q3_operating_costs | 2026Q3 / upside | 133.23 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_overhead, upside_2026q3_royalty_cash, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | -132.59 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_contribution, upside_2026q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2026q3_dfc_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2026q3_interest_fraction | 2026Q3 / upside | 8.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2026q3_dfc_interest | 2026Q3 / upside | 1.90 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2026q3_dfc_rate, upside_2026q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2026q3_treasury_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2026q3_cash_earnings | 2026Q3 / upside | -109.59 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2026q3_working_capital | 2026Q3 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 17.40 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_dfc_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | -126.98 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_earnings, upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 110.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | -236.98 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2026q3_acquired_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash | 2026Q3 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, upside_2026q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2026q3_minority_investment | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2026q3_other_investing | 2026Q3 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing | 2026Q3 / upside | -386.98 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2026q4_average_capacity | 2026Q4 / upside | 420,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2026q4_mine_utilization | 2026Q4 / upside | 80.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction | 2026Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes | 2026Q4 / upside | 84,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_average_capacity, upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction, upside_2026q4_mine_utilization, upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2026q4_treo_price | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2026q4_mine_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 31.92 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes | 2026Q4 / upside | 4,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2026q4_magnet_price | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 2.64 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, upside_2026q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 43.56 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 11.17 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 21.62 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2026q4_legacy_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2026q4_legacy_gross | 2026Q4 / upside | 2.25 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2026q4_mine_gross | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.30 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2026q4_magnet_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | -61.7% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2026q4_magnet_gross | 2026Q4 / upside | -1.63 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2026q4_gross_contribution | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.92 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_gross, upside_2026q4_mine_gross, upside_2026q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2026q4_royalty_variable | 2026Q4 / upside | 1.68 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2026q4_royalty_topup | 2026Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2026q4_royalty_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 6.68 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_royalty_variable, upside_2026q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2026q4_transaction_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2026q4_cash_overhead | 2026Q4 / upside | 40.85 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2026q4_operating_costs | 2026Q4 / upside | 84.53 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_overhead, upside_2026q4_royalty_cash, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | -73.61 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_contribution, upside_2026q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2026q4_dfc_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2026q4_interest_fraction | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2026q4_dfc_interest | 2026Q4 / upside | 5.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2026q4_dfc_rate, upside_2026q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2026q4_treasury_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2026q4_cash_earnings | 2026Q4 / upside | -46.61 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2026q4_working_capital | 2026Q4 / upside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 26.19 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_dfc_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | -72.80 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_earnings, upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | -212.80 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash upside_2026q4_new_acquisition | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2026q4_acquired_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_new_acquisition, upside_2026q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2026q4_minority_investment | 2026Q4 / upside | 32.40 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2026q4_other_investing | 2026Q4 / upside | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing | 2026Q4 / upside | -245.20 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2027q1_average_capacity | 2027Q1 / upside | 440,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2027q1_mine_utilization | 2027Q1 / upside | 90.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction | 2027Q1 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q1 / upside | 99,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_average_capacity, upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q1_mine_utilization, upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2027q1_treo_price | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2027q1_mine_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 37.62 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q1_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q1 / upside | 10,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2027q1_magnet_price | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 6.60 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q1_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 56.22 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 13.17 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q1 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 23.62 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2027q1_legacy_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2027q1_legacy_gross | 2027Q1 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q1_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2027q1_mine_gross | 2027Q1 / upside | 14.00 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2027q1_magnet_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | -47.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2027q1_magnet_gross | 2027Q1 / upside | -3.14 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q1_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2027q1_gross_contribution | 2027Q1 / upside | 13.87 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_gross, upside_2027q1_mine_gross, upside_2027q1_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2027q1_royalty_variable | 2027Q1 / upside | 1.98 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2027q1_royalty_topup | 2027Q1 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2027q1_royalty_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 6.98 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_royalty_variable, upside_2027q1_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2027q1_transaction_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2027q1_cash_overhead | 2027Q1 / upside | 43.70 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2027q1_operating_costs | 2027Q1 / upside | 71.68 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_overhead, upside_2027q1_royalty_cash, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | -57.81 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_contribution, upside_2027q1_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2027q1_dfc_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2027q1_interest_fraction | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2027q1_dfc_interest | 2027Q1 / upside | 5.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q1_dfc_rate, upside_2027q1_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2027q1_treasury_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 7.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2027q1_cash_earnings | 2027Q1 / upside | -29.81 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2027q1_working_capital | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 31.19 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_dfc_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | -60.99 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_earnings, upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | -220.99 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash upside_2027q1_new_acquisition | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2027q1_acquired_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_new_acquisition, upside_2027q1_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2027q1_minority_investment | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2027q1_other_investing | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q1_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing | 2027Q1 / upside | -220.99 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2027q2_average_capacity | 2027Q2 / upside | 520,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2027q2_mine_utilization | 2027Q2 / upside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction | 2027Q2 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q2 / upside | 123,500.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_average_capacity, upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q2_mine_utilization, upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2027q2_treo_price | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2027q2_mine_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 46.93 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q2_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q2 / upside | 20,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2027q2_magnet_price | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 13.20 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q2_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 75.13 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 16.43 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 26.88 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2027q2_legacy_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2027q2_legacy_gross | 2027Q2 / upside | 3.75 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2027q2_mine_gross | 2027Q2 / upside | 20.05 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2027q2_magnet_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | -33.3% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2027q2_magnet_gross | 2027Q2 / upside | -4.39 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2027q2_gross_contribution | 2027Q2 / upside | 19.42 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_gross, upside_2027q2_mine_gross, upside_2027q2_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2027q2_royalty_variable | 2027Q2 / upside | 2.46 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2027q2_royalty_topup | 2027Q2 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2027q2_royalty_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 7.46 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_royalty_variable, upside_2027q2_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 14.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2027q2_transaction_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2027q2_cash_overhead | 2027Q2 / upside | 46.55 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2027q2_operating_costs | 2027Q2 / upside | 79.01 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_overhead, upside_2027q2_royalty_cash, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | -59.60 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_contribution, upside_2027q2_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2027q2_dfc_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2027q2_interest_fraction | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2027q2_dfc_interest | 2027Q2 / upside | 5.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q2_dfc_rate, upside_2027q2_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2027q2_treasury_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 6.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2027q2_cash_earnings | 2027Q2 / upside | -28.60 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2027q2_working_capital | 2027Q2 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 36.19 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_dfc_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | -64.79 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_earnings, upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | -254.79 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash upside_2027q2_new_acquisition | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2027q2_acquired_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_new_acquisition, upside_2027q2_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2027q2_minority_investment | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2027q2_other_investing | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing | 2027Q2 / upside | -254.79 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2027q3_average_capacity | 2027Q3 / upside | 640,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2027q3_mine_utilization | 2027Q3 / upside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction | 2027Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q3 / upside | 152,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_average_capacity, upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q3_mine_utilization, upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2027q3_treo_price | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2027q3_mine_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 57.76 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q3_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q3 / upside | 32,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2027q3_magnet_price | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 21.12 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q3_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 97.88 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 20.22 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 30.67 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2027q3_legacy_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2027q3_legacy_gross | 2027Q3 / upside | 4.75 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2027q3_mine_gross | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.09 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2027q3_magnet_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | -19.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2027q3_magnet_gross | 2027Q3 / upside | -4.01 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2027q3_gross_contribution | 2027Q3 / upside | 27.83 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_gross, upside_2027q3_mine_gross, upside_2027q3_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2027q3_royalty_variable | 2027Q3 / upside | 3.03 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2027q3_royalty_topup | 2027Q3 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2027q3_royalty_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 8.03 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_royalty_variable, upside_2027q3_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2027q3_transaction_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2027q3_cash_overhead | 2027Q3 / upside | 49.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2027q3_operating_costs | 2027Q3 / upside | 86.43 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_overhead, upside_2027q3_royalty_cash, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | -58.60 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_contribution, upside_2027q3_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2027q3_dfc_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2027q3_interest_fraction | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2027q3_dfc_interest | 2027Q3 / upside | 5.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q3_dfc_rate, upside_2027q3_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2027q3_treasury_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2027q3_cash_earnings | 2027Q3 / upside | -24.60 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2027q3_working_capital | 2027Q3 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 41.19 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_dfc_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | -65.79 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_earnings, upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | -285.79 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash upside_2027q3_new_acquisition | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2027q3_acquired_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_new_acquisition, upside_2027q3_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2027q3_minority_investment | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2027q3_other_investing | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing | 2027Q3 / upside | -285.79 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_other_investing). |
| Legacy alloy and services revenue upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Average annualized operating TREO capacity upside_2027q4_average_capacity | 2027Q4 / upside | 640,000.0% ratio | assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate. |
| Annual-to-quarter fraction upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Capacity to recognized sales factor upside_2027q4_mine_utilization | 2027Q4 / upside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated fraction of quarter upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1. |
| Post-close sold TREO tonnes upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes | 2027Q4 / upside | 152,000.0% ratio | derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_average_capacity, upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q4_mine_utilization, upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne upside_2027q4_treo_price | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.04 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Post-close TREO revenue upside_2027q4_mine_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 57.76 USD_millions | derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q4_treo_price). |
| Accepted external magnet tonnes upside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes | 2027Q4 / upside | 45,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Realized magnet price in $M per tonne upside_2027q4_magnet_price | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Accepted magnet sales upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 29.70 USD_millions | derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q4_magnet_price). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 110.46 USD_millions | derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Cash production cost in $M per tonne upside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.01 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Variable mine cash cost upside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 20.22 USD_millions | derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost). |
| Full-quarter mine fixed cost upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full | 2027Q4 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Consolidated mine fixed operating cost upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 10.45 USD_millions | derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction). |
| Mine cash production cost upside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 30.67 USD_millions | derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost). |
| Legacy margin before D&A upside_2027q4_legacy_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Legacy cash gross contribution upside_2027q4_legacy_gross | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.75 USD_millions | derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_legacy_margin). |
| Mine revenue less cash production upside_2027q4_mine_gross | 2027Q4 / upside | 27.09 USD_millions | derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost). |
| Magnet cash gross margin upside_2027q4_magnet_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | -4.8% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Magnet ramp cash contribution upside_2027q4_magnet_gross | 2027Q4 / upside | -1.41 USD_millions | derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_margin). |
| Gross contribution before D&A and royalty upside_2027q4_gross_contribution | 2027Q4 / upside | 31.43 USD_millions | derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_gross, upside_2027q4_mine_gross, upside_2027q4_magnet_gross). |
| Variable mine royalty upside_2027q4_royalty_variable | 2027Q4 / upside | 3.03 USD_millions | derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate). |
| Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up upside_2027q4_royalty_topup | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure. |
| Variable royalty plus minimum allowance upside_2027q4_royalty_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 8.03 USD_millions | derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_royalty_variable, upside_2027q4_royalty_topup). |
| Consolidated operating D&A upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately. |
| Operating SBC upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy upside_2027q4_transaction_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close. |
| Cash SG&A and development upside_2027q4_cash_overhead | 2027Q4 / upside | 52.25 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs upside_2027q4_operating_costs | 2027Q4 / upside | 93.28 USD_millions | derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_overhead, upside_2027q4_royalty_cash, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_transaction_cost). |
| Operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | -61.85 USD_millions | derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_contribution, upside_2027q4_operating_costs). |
| SOFR plus spread coupon assumption upside_2027q4_dfc_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Quarter/consolidation interest fraction upside_2027q4_interest_fraction | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| DFC cash coupon proxy upside_2027q4_dfc_interest | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.69 USD_millions | derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q4_dfc_rate, upside_2027q4_interest_fraction). |
| Cash treasury income upside_2027q4_treasury_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income upside_2027q4_cash_earnings | 2027Q4 / upside | -24.85 USD_millions | derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_treasury_income). |
| Cash taxes upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Inventory receivable and other working-capital use upside_2027q4_working_capital | 2027Q4 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Interest tax and working-capital use upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 46.19 USD_millions | derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_dfc_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_working_capital). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | -71.04 USD_millions | derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_earnings, upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less cash capital investment upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | -311.04 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Other acquisition purchase cash upside_2027q4_new_acquisition | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash acquired at closing upside_2027q4_acquired_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash. |
| Net acquisition cash upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_new_acquisition, upside_2027q4_acquired_cash). |
| Carester minority investment cash upside_2027q4_minority_investment | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales. |
| Acquisition and minority cash upside_2027q4_other_investing | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing | 2027Q4 / upside | -311.04 USD_millions | derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_other_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 67.17 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_legacy_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 27.52 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_mine_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 36.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) upside_fy2026_magnet_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 3.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_contribution | FY2026 / upside | 11.67 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, upside_2026q3_gross_contribution, upside_2026q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | -289.18 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | -275.10 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 358.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | -633.49 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) upside_fy2026_acquisition_cash | FY2026 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) upside_fy2026_minority_investment | FY2026 / upside | 32.40 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, upside_2026q3_minority_investment, upside_2026q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_investing | FY2026 / upside | -815.89 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 339.69 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_legacy_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 69.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue). |
| Post-close mine revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_mine_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 200.07 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_revenue). |
| Accepted magnet sales ($M) upside_fy2027_magnet_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 70.62 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue). |
| Gross contribution before D&A ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_contribution | FY2027 / upside | 92.55 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_contribution, upside_2027q2_gross_contribution, upside_2027q3_gross_contribution, upside_2027q4_gross_contribution). |
| Operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | -237.86 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | -262.61 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 810.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | -1,072.61 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Net acquisition cash ($M) upside_fy2027_acquisition_cash | FY2027 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash). |
| Minority investment cash ($M) upside_fy2027_minority_investment | FY2027 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_minority_investment, upside_2027q2_minority_investment, upside_2027q3_minority_investment, upside_2027q4_minority_investment). |
| Cash after business investing ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_investing | FY2027 / upside | -1,072.61 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing). |
Model boundaries
- Serra Verde closed September 3 for $300M cash and 126,849,307 shares. H1 USAR history is not retrospectively replaced with combined pro forma history. Q3 uses a one-month acquired operating approximation; actual closing-date accounting will differ.
- Year-end 4,000-ton annual TREO run rate and subsequent 6,400-ton annual-average capacity plan are operating targets, not shipment or revenue guidance. Desk utilization, sale timing and blended price are explicit; undisclosed offtake price floors are not invented.
- Mine revenue is modeled as external sales with no duplicate intercompany sale to LCM or magnets. Accepted magnet tonnage is separate from installed/nameplate capacity; Round Top contributes no mined revenue in the horizon.
- Serra Verde reported only $0.588M H1 revenue in the furnished pro forma historical column. Production commissioning, inventory, acceptance and offtake commencement can delay recognized sales despite large future capacity targets.
- Royalty cash includes a 5.25% variable sensitivity and a separate minimum-payment top-up allowance. Actual contractual minimums and amortized-cost accounting may differ. The royalty liability is not deducted from cash in one lump sum.
- The pro forma June balance sheet is illustrative, not a September cash balance. Acquired June cash of $162.4M is a reference; modeled closing cash uses a haircut and is explicitly unverified until purchase accounting is filed.
- DFC June principal was $425M, of which the $100M incremental loan extinguished upon warrant exercise at close. Remaining $325M initial principal is a reference, not proof of September debt after any other draws. No automatic receipt of the $565M facility ceiling.
- The U.S. government arrangement provides up to $277M federal funding and $1.3B loan capacity subject to milestones. Counterparty financing in the offtake arrangement is not USAR cash. No future government or counterparty proceeds are included in modeled burn.
- Carester minority investment is signed, subject to closing conditions, and is not consolidated sales. A $32.4M cash scenario is included at different future dates; total expected consideration includes shares and FX exposure.
- Purchase-price allocation, depreciation, transaction-fee settlement, royalty floors and working capital are sensitivities pending post-close financials. No complete parent/subsidiary cash waterfall, restricted-reserve transfer, debt maturity or ownership/EPS model.
The closed mine acquisition and the cash needed to scale
Can mine ramp and qualified magnet shipments create an integrated business before cash requirements overwhelm funding flexibility?
USAR reported H1 revenue of $11.5M, operating loss $83.0M, CFO negative $75.3M and $108.4M cash capex/equipment deposits. June unrestricted cash was $1.530B with another $64.2M restricted. Serra Verde closed September 3 for $300M cash and 126.849M shares; Q3 therefore contains only acquired-period activity. The furnished Serra Verde H1 historical revenue was $0.588M. Target year-end annual TREO run rate is 4,000 tonnes, with a subsequent expansion toward 6,400 tonnes. Capacity is not yet recognized sales. June Serra Verde debt principal was $425M, including a $100M incremental DFC loan extinguished at closing; the remaining $325M reference still carries financing claims. Government commitments of up to $277M funding and $1.3B loans are milestone-dependent. The model shows business cash demand before assuming those facilities are drawn.
The competing explanation
Mine and magnet capacity can grow faster than accepted sales. Low utilization, acquired debt, royalty minimums, working capital and transaction costs can absorb cash before integration produces economic returns.
Risks to track
- Production, product qualification and offtake commencement.
- Rare-earth price and product-mix volatility.
- Acquisition integration and provisional purchase accounting.
- Capital cost, cash restrictions and milestone-conditioned financing.
- Royalty minimums, DFC debt and substantial issued-share dilution.
Next checkpoints
- Post-close reporting · Q3 results; date unconfirmed (estimated). Obtain closing cash/debt, purchase allocation and September-only acquired operations.
- Mine and magnet acceptance · Year-end 2026 run-rate target (estimated). Compare nameplate/run-rate claims with shipped external product and working capital.
- Conditional investment and funding · Next financing and transaction disclosures (estimated). Verify Carester closing, actual government receipts and offtake effectiveness.
Data coverage and open work
- Serra Verde closed September 3 for $300M cash and 126,849,307 shares. H1 USAR history is not retrospectively replaced with combined pro forma history. Q3 uses a one-month acquired operating approximation; actual closing-date accounting will differ.
- Year-end 4,000-ton annual TREO run rate and subsequent 6,400-ton annual-average capacity plan are operating targets, not shipment or revenue guidance. Desk utilization, sale timing and blended price are explicit; undisclosed offtake price floors are not invented.
- Mine revenue is modeled as external sales with no duplicate intercompany sale to LCM or magnets. Accepted magnet tonnage is separate from installed/nameplate capacity; Round Top contributes no mined revenue in the horizon.
- Serra Verde reported only $0.588M H1 revenue in the furnished pro forma historical column. Production commissioning, inventory, acceptance and offtake commencement can delay recognized sales despite large future capacity targets.
- Royalty cash includes a 5.25% variable sensitivity and a separate minimum-payment top-up allowance. Actual contractual minimums and amortized-cost accounting may differ. The royalty liability is not deducted from cash in one lump sum.
- The pro forma June balance sheet is illustrative, not a September cash balance. Acquired June cash of $162.4M is a reference; modeled closing cash uses a haircut and is explicitly unverified until purchase accounting is filed.
- DFC June principal was $425M, of which the $100M incremental loan extinguished upon warrant exercise at close. Remaining $325M initial principal is a reference, not proof of September debt after any other draws. No automatic receipt of the $565M facility ceiling.
- The U.S. government arrangement provides up to $277M federal funding and $1.3B loan capacity subject to milestones. Counterparty financing in the offtake arrangement is not USAR cash. No future government or counterparty proceeds are included in modeled burn.
- Carester minority investment is signed, subject to closing conditions, and is not consolidated sales. A $32.4M cash scenario is included at different future dates; total expected consideration includes shares and FX exposure.
- Purchase-price allocation, depreciation, transaction-fee settlement, royalty floors and working capital are sensitivities pending post-close financials. No complete parent/subsidiary cash waterfall, restricted-reserve transfer, debt maturity or ownership/EPS model.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.7 | +0.2 | +3.4 | 54% |
| 5 sessions | -6.3 | -0.1 | +7.7 | 49% |
| 10 sessions | -9.0 | -0.3 | +10.1 | 48% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.