ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · ENERGY, MATERIALS & POWER

$USAR

USA Rare Earth, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 1000 · CIK 1970622 · revision 6 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

USA Rare Earth is building a rare-earth mining, alloy and magnet platform. It owns legacy metal and service operations and closed the Serra Verde acquisition in September 2026, adding the Pela Ema mine in Brazil. Mine ramp, accepted magnet output and financing conditions determine the path from construction to commercial cash flow.

Three drivers

  1. Post-close mine utilization, TREO realization and royalty burden
  2. Qualified magnet shipments and legacy alloy margins
  3. Capital investment, acquisition cash and conditional government funding

Thesis

Our view

The completed acquisition changes the company from a largely downstream buildout into a broader operating platform. The key test is recognized external sales and cash economics after ramp costs, royalties and funding claims, not nameplate capacity alone.

What changes it

Track acquired-period revenue, inventory acceptance, closing cash/debt and milestone-qualified financing against the capital bill.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)0.010.025.715.82
Gross profit ($M)0.030.040.13-1.64
Operating income ($M)-2.05-5.9†6-8.77-8.88-15.95-26.1†6-36.77-46.38
Net income ($M)-1.99-6.8†1051.811-142.512-156.79-50.2†10-67.011-10.312
EPS, diluted ($)-0.03130.5814-1.5415-1.6413-0.3414-0.0515
Diluted shares (M)59.51683.11792.818102.616196.517230.118
Cash ($M)0.11916.82023.421121.822257.623359.9221,749.6241,530.122
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)-1.2†25-3.5†26-10.327-7.9†28-2.8†25-27.9†26-18.527-56.9†28
Capex ($M)2.029
Free cash flow ($M)-12.3†30

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q39.22026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q427.52026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q140.62026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q250.72026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Closed Serra Verde acquisition, mine ramp and magnet funding cash

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Preserve USAR reported H1 history and consolidate Serra Verde only from the September 3 close. Drive mine sales from average operating capacity, utilization, recognized-quarter fraction and realized TREO price; separately forecast legacy alloys/engineering and accepted magnet sales. Deduct cash production cost, project overhead, royalties and depreciation. Bridge operating profit to cash with treasury income, working capital and acquisition costs. Compare operating/capital burn with net acquisition and conditional minority-investment cash; do not assume undrawn government facilities are proceeds.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
revenueH1 / June 202611.52reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
cfoH1 / June 2026-75.32reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
capexH1 / June 2026108.39reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
H1 CFO less capexH1 2026-183.71derived. Equipment deposits remain cash investment.
cashH1 / June 20261,530.15reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
restrictedH1 / June 202664.22reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
acquisition gross cashPro forma / closing reference300.00reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
USAR shares issued for Serra Verde2026-09-03126.85reported. Closing consideration in millions of shares; not the combined diluted denominator. Source · 2026-09-04
sv june cashPro forma / closing reference162.41reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
sv h1 revenuePro forma / closing reference0.59reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
dfc june principalPro forma / closing reference425.00reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
dfc extinguishedPro forma / closing reference100.00reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
DFC initial principal after incremental extinguishmentClosing reference325.00derived. Excludes any other post-June draws or repayments; not a complete acquisition-date debt balance.
transaction cost referencePro forma / closing reference96.37reported. Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Source · 2026-09-04
government grant capacityH1 / June 2026277.00reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
government loan capacityH1 / June 20261,300.00reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
government deferred costH1 / June 2026912.09reported. USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Source · 2026-08-10
Year-end annual TREO run-rate target2026 year end400,000.0%management guidance. Physical tonnes per year, encoded as a count; not shipped tonnage or revenue. Source · 2026-09-04

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Post-close mine revenue ($M)Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)Accepted magnet sales ($M)Net acquisition cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Gross contribution before D&A ($M)Minority investment cash ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-143.94-253.94110.006.690.696.000.00170.00-149.00-3.960.00-423.94
2026Q4-109.19-259.19150.0013.766.746.500.520.00-108.38-12.270.00-259.19
2027Q1-100.89-260.89160.0017.719.407.001.300.00-96.07-12.080.00-260.89
2027Q2-110.68-290.68180.0021.1011.007.502.600.00-103.87-12.0432.40-323.08
FY2026-328.45-696.84368.3931.967.4224.020.52170.00-340.37-16.140.00-866.84
FY2027-460.05-1,220.05760.0093.8149.5631.0013.260.00-428.80-45.7032.40-1,252.45

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Post-close mine revenue ($M)Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)Accepted magnet sales ($M)Net acquisition cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Gross contribution before D&A ($M)Minority investment cash ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-131.18-231.18100.009.202.406.500.30160.00-136.58-1.460.00-391.18
2026Q4-86.68-216.68130.0027.5018.008.001.500.00-86.88-0.9332.40-249.08
2027Q1-73.81-223.81150.0040.6027.0010.003.600.00-70.023.400.00-223.81
2027Q2-81.01-251.01170.0050.7031.5012.007.200.00-75.215.440.00-251.01
FY2026-293.18-631.57338.3948.2220.4026.021.80160.00-306.45-2.2932.40-823.97
FY2027-336.31-1,056.31720.00219.10130.5052.0036.600.00-309.1227.730.00-1,056.31

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Post-close mine revenue ($M)Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)Accepted magnet sales ($M)Net acquisition cash ($M)Operating income proxy ($M)Gross contribution before D&A ($M)Minority investment cash ($M)Cash after business investing ($M)
2026Q3-126.98-236.98110.0012.094.437.000.66150.00-132.590.650.00-386.98
2026Q4-72.80-212.80140.0043.5631.929.002.640.00-73.6110.9232.40-245.20
2027Q1-60.99-220.99160.0056.2237.6212.006.600.00-57.8113.870.00-220.99
2027Q2-64.79-254.79190.0075.1346.9315.0013.200.00-59.6019.420.00-254.79
FY2026-275.10-633.49358.3967.1736.3527.523.30150.00-289.1811.6732.40-815.89
FY2027-262.61-1,072.61810.00339.69200.0769.0070.620.00-237.8692.550.00-1,072.61
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
revenue
h1_revenue
H1 / June 2026 / shared11.52
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
legacy revenue
h1_legacy_revenue
H1 / June 2026 / shared11.52
USD_millions
reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10
mine revenue
h1_mine_revenue
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10
magnet revenue
h1_magnet_revenue
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: H1 revenue was all generated by Less Common Metals, per MD&A; no mine or magnet sales are backfilled. Primary source · 2026-08-10
operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 / June 2026 / shared-82.99
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
cfo
h1_cfo
H1 / June 2026 / shared-75.32
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
capex
h1_capex
H1 / June 2026 / shared108.39
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
acquisition cash
h1_acquisition_cash
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
minority investment
h1_minority_investment
H1 / June 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
reported gross
h1_reported_gross
H1 / June 2026 / shared-1.48
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
da
h1_da
H1 / June 2026 / shared4.29
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
sbc
h1_sbc
H1 / June 2026 / shared11.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
treasury income
h1_treasury_income
H1 / June 2026 / shared26.92
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
cash
cash
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,530.15
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
restricted
restricted
H1 / June 2026 / shared64.22
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
government deferred cost
government_deferred_cost
H1 / June 2026 / shared912.09
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
government grant capacity
government_grant_capacity
H1 / June 2026 / shared277.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
government loan capacity
government_loan_capacity
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,300.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
h1 pipe
h1_pipe
H1 / June 2026 / shared1,500.00
USD_millions
reported: USD millions; government capacity and noncash deferred costs are not received cash. Primary source · 2026-08-10
H1 assumed production D&A allocation
h1_production_da_allocation
H1 2026 / shared1.58
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allocation of reported total depreciation to production for analytical pre-D&A comparison; not a disclosed segment metric.
H1 gross contribution before assumed production D&A
h1_gross_contribution
H1 2026 / shared0.10
USD_millions
derived: Analytical allocation, not reported EBITDA or segment gross profit. Formula: sum(h1_reported_gross, h1_production_da_allocation).
H1 CFO less capex
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared-183.71
USD_millions
derived: Equipment deposits remain cash investment. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
H1 net acquisitions and minority investment
h1_other_investments
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
derived: No Serra Verde acquisition in H1 reported history. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, h1_minority_investment).
H1 cash after business investing
h1_cash_after_investing
H1 2026 / shared-183.71
USD_millions
derived: Future acquisition cannot alter filed H1 USAR cash. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_other_investments).
acquisition gross cash
acquisition_gross_cash
Pro forma / closing reference / shared300.00
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
sv june cash
sv_june_cash
Pro forma / closing reference / shared162.41
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
sv h1 revenue
sv_h1_revenue
Pro forma / closing reference / shared0.59
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
dfc june principal
dfc_june_principal
Pro forma / closing reference / shared425.00
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
dfc extinguished
dfc_extinguished
Pro forma / closing reference / shared100.00
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
transaction cost reference
transaction_cost_reference
Pro forma / closing reference / shared96.37
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
royalty current
royalty_current
Pro forma / closing reference / shared19.43
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
royalty proforma long
royalty_proforma_long
Pro forma / closing reference / shared207.43
USD_millions
reported: Furnished pro forma historical or transaction adjustment; not an actual September closing balance. Primary source · 2026-09-04
DFC initial principal after incremental extinguishment
dfc_remaining_reference
Closing reference / shared325.00
USD_millions
derived: Excludes any other post-June draws or repayments; not a complete acquisition-date debt balance. Formula: subtract(dfc_june_principal, dfc_extinguished).
USAR shares issued for Serra Verde
acquisition_shares
2026-09-03 / shared126.85
shares_millions
reported: Closing consideration in millions of shares; not the combined diluted denominator. Primary source · 2026-09-04
Combined variable royalty reference
royalty_rate
Contract reference / shared5.2%
ratio
reported: Two royalty rates of 2.625% following October 2024 amendment; contractual minimum cash is separate. Primary source · 2026-04-20
Year-end annual TREO run-rate target
yearend_runrate
2026 year end / shared400,000.0%
ratio
management guidance: Physical tonnes per year, encoded as a count; not shipped tonnage or revenue. Primary source · 2026-09-04
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue
2026Q3 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2026q3_average_capacity
2026Q3 / downside250,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2026q3_mine_utilization
2026Q3 / downside15.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction
2026Q3 / downside33.3%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes
2026Q3 / downside3,125.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_average_capacity, downside_2026q3_quarter_fraction, downside_2026q3_mine_utilization, downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2026q3_treo_price
2026Q3 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2026q3_mine_revenue
2026Q3 / downside0.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2026q3_magnet_price
2026Q3 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, downside_2026q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside6.69
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost
2026Q3 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost
2026Q3 / downside0.55
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full
2026Q3 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q3 / downside4.58
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, downside_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost
2026Q3 / downside5.13
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, downside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2026q3_legacy_margin
2026Q3 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2026q3_legacy_gross
2026Q3 / downside0.48
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2026q3_mine_gross
2026Q3 / downside-4.44
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2026q3_magnet_margin
2026Q3 / downside-100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2026q3_magnet_gross
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2026q3_gross_contribution
2026Q3 / downside-3.96
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_legacy_gross, downside_2026q3_mine_gross, downside_2026q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2026q3_royalty_variable
2026Q3 / downside0.04
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2026q3_royalty_topup
2026Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2026q3_royalty_cash
2026Q3 / downside2.04
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_royalty_variable, downside_2026q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2026q3_transaction_cost
2026Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2026q3_operating_costs
2026Q3 / downside145.04
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_overhead, downside_2026q3_royalty_cash, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-149.00
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_contribution, downside_2026q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2026q3_dfc_rate
2026Q3 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2026q3_interest_fraction
2026Q3 / downside8.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2026q3_dfc_interest
2026Q3 / downside2.44
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2026q3_dfc_rate, downside_2026q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2026q3_treasury_income
2026Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / downside-126.00
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside17.94
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_dfc_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside-143.94
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cash_earnings, downside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside110.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside-253.94
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2026q3_acquired_cash
2026Q3 / downside130.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / downside170.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, downside_2026q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2026q3_minority_investment
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2026q3_other_investing
2026Q3 / downside170.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / downside-423.94
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue
2026Q4 / downside6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2026q4_average_capacity
2026Q4 / downside350,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2026q4_mine_utilization
2026Q4 / downside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction
2026Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes
2026Q4 / downside30,625.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_average_capacity, downside_2026q4_quarter_fraction, downside_2026q4_mine_utilization, downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2026q4_treo_price
2026Q4 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2026q4_mine_revenue
2026Q4 / downside6.74
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes
2026Q4 / downside1,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2026q4_magnet_price
2026Q4 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue
2026Q4 / downside0.52
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, downside_2026q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside13.76
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost
2026Q4 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost
2026Q4 / downside5.36
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full
2026Q4 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q4 / downside13.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, downside_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost
2026Q4 / downside19.11
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, downside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2026q4_legacy_margin
2026Q4 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2026q4_legacy_gross
2026Q4 / downside0.52
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2026q4_mine_gross
2026Q4 / downside-12.37
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2026q4_magnet_margin
2026Q4 / downside-81.2%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2026q4_magnet_gross
2026Q4 / downside-0.42
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2026q4_gross_contribution
2026Q4 / downside-12.27
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_legacy_gross, downside_2026q4_mine_gross, downside_2026q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2026q4_royalty_variable
2026Q4 / downside0.35
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2026q4_royalty_topup
2026Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2026q4_royalty_cash
2026Q4 / downside5.35
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_royalty_variable, downside_2026q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2026q4_transaction_cost
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / downside53.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2026q4_operating_costs
2026Q4 / downside96.10
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_overhead, downside_2026q4_royalty_cash, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside-108.38
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_contribution, downside_2026q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2026q4_dfc_rate
2026Q4 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2026q4_interest_fraction
2026Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2026q4_dfc_interest
2026Q4 / downside7.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2026q4_dfc_rate, downside_2026q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2026q4_treasury_income
2026Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / downside-81.38
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside27.81
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_dfc_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside-109.19
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_earnings, downside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-259.19
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
downside_2026q4_new_acquisition
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2026q4_acquired_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_new_acquisition, downside_2026q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2026q4_minority_investment
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2026q4_other_investing
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / downside-259.19
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue
2027Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2027q1_average_capacity
2027Q1 / downside380,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2027q1_mine_utilization
2027Q1 / downside45.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes
2027Q1 / downside42,750.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_average_capacity, downside_2027q1_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q1_mine_utilization, downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q1_treo_price
2027Q1 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2027q1_mine_revenue
2027Q1 / downside9.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q1_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes
2027Q1 / downside2,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q1_magnet_price
2027Q1 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1.30
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q1_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside17.71
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost
2027Q1 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost
2027Q1 / downside7.48
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full
2027Q1 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q1 / downside13.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost
2027Q1 / downside21.23
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2027q1_legacy_margin
2027Q1 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2027q1_legacy_gross
2027Q1 / downside0.56
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q1_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2027q1_mine_gross
2027Q1 / downside-11.83
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2027q1_magnet_margin
2027Q1 / downside-62.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2027q1_magnet_gross
2027Q1 / downside-0.81
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q1_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2027q1_gross_contribution
2027Q1 / downside-12.08
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_gross, downside_2027q1_mine_gross, downside_2027q1_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2027q1_royalty_variable
2027Q1 / downside0.49
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2027q1_royalty_topup
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2027q1_royalty_cash
2027Q1 / downside5.49
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_royalty_variable, downside_2027q1_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2027q1_transaction_cost
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / downside57.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2027q1_operating_costs
2027Q1 / downside83.99
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_overhead, downside_2027q1_royalty_cash, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-96.07
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_contribution, downside_2027q1_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2027q1_dfc_rate
2027Q1 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2027q1_interest_fraction
2027Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2027q1_dfc_interest
2027Q1 / downside7.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q1_dfc_rate, downside_2027q1_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2027q1_treasury_income
2027Q1 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / downside-68.07
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside32.81
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_dfc_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-100.89
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_earnings, downside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-260.89
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
downside_2027q1_new_acquisition
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2027q1_acquired_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_new_acquisition, downside_2027q1_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2027q1_minority_investment
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2027q1_other_investing
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q1_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / downside-260.89
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue
2027Q2 / downside7.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2027q2_average_capacity
2027Q2 / downside400,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2027q2_mine_utilization
2027Q2 / downside50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes
2027Q2 / downside50,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_average_capacity, downside_2027q2_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q2_mine_utilization, downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q2_treo_price
2027Q2 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2027q2_mine_revenue
2027Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q2_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes
2027Q2 / downside5,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q2_magnet_price
2027Q2 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue
2027Q2 / downside2.60
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q2_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside21.10
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost
2027Q2 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost
2027Q2 / downside8.75
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full
2027Q2 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q2 / downside13.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost
2027Q2 / downside22.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2027q2_legacy_margin
2027Q2 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2027q2_legacy_gross
2027Q2 / downside0.60
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2027q2_mine_gross
2027Q2 / downside-11.50
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2027q2_magnet_margin
2027Q2 / downside-43.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2027q2_magnet_gross
2027Q2 / downside-1.14
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2027q2_gross_contribution
2027Q2 / downside-12.04
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_legacy_gross, downside_2027q2_mine_gross, downside_2027q2_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2027q2_royalty_variable
2027Q2 / downside0.58
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2027q2_royalty_topup
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2027q2_royalty_cash
2027Q2 / downside5.58
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_royalty_variable, downside_2027q2_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2027q2_transaction_cost
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / downside61.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2027q2_operating_costs
2027Q2 / downside91.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_overhead, downside_2027q2_royalty_cash, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-103.87
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_contribution, downside_2027q2_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2027q2_dfc_rate
2027Q2 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2027q2_interest_fraction
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2027q2_dfc_interest
2027Q2 / downside7.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q2_dfc_rate, downside_2027q2_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2027q2_treasury_income
2027Q2 / downside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / downside-72.87
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / downside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside37.81
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_dfc_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-110.68
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_earnings, downside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-290.68
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
downside_2027q2_new_acquisition
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2027q2_acquired_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_new_acquisition, downside_2027q2_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2027q2_minority_investment
2027Q2 / downside32.40
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2027q2_other_investing
2027Q2 / downside32.40
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / downside-323.08
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue
2027Q3 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2027q3_average_capacity
2027Q3 / downside440,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2027q3_mine_utilization
2027Q3 / downside55.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction
2027Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes
2027Q3 / downside60,500.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_average_capacity, downside_2027q3_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q3_mine_utilization, downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q3_treo_price
2027Q3 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2027q3_mine_revenue
2027Q3 / downside13.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes
2027Q3 / downside8,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q3_magnet_price
2027Q3 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue
2027Q3 / downside4.16
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside25.47
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost
2027Q3 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost
2027Q3 / downside10.59
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full
2027Q3 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q3 / downside13.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost
2027Q3 / downside24.34
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2027q3_legacy_margin
2027Q3 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2027q3_legacy_gross
2027Q3 / downside0.64
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2027q3_mine_gross
2027Q3 / downside-11.03
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2027q3_magnet_margin
2027Q3 / downside-25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2027q3_magnet_gross
2027Q3 / downside-1.04
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2027q3_gross_contribution
2027Q3 / downside-11.43
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_legacy_gross, downside_2027q3_mine_gross, downside_2027q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2027q3_royalty_variable
2027Q3 / downside0.70
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2027q3_royalty_topup
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2027q3_royalty_cash
2027Q3 / downside5.70
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_royalty_variable, downside_2027q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2027q3_transaction_cost
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / downside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2027q3_operating_costs
2027Q3 / downside99.70
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_overhead, downside_2027q3_royalty_cash, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-111.13
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_contribution, downside_2027q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2027q3_dfc_rate
2027Q3 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2027q3_interest_fraction
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2027q3_dfc_interest
2027Q3 / downside7.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q3_dfc_rate, downside_2027q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2027q3_treasury_income
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / downside-77.13
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / downside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside42.81
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_dfc_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-119.94
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_earnings, downside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-319.94
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
downside_2027q3_new_acquisition
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2027q3_acquired_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_new_acquisition, downside_2027q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2027q3_minority_investment
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2027q3_other_investing
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / downside-319.94
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue
2027Q4 / downside8.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
downside_2027q4_average_capacity
2027Q4 / downside480,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
downside_2027q4_mine_utilization
2027Q4 / downside60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction
2027Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes
2027Q4 / downside72,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_average_capacity, downside_2027q4_quarter_fraction, downside_2027q4_mine_utilization, downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q4_treo_price
2027Q4 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
downside_2027q4_mine_revenue
2027Q4 / downside15.84
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
downside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes
2027Q4 / downside10,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
downside_2027q4_magnet_price
2027Q4 / downside0.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue
2027Q4 / downside5.20
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, downside_2027q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside29.54
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
downside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost
2027Q4 / downside0.02
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
downside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost
2027Q4 / downside12.60
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, downside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full
2027Q4 / downside13.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q4 / downside13.75
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, downside_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
downside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost
2027Q4 / downside26.35
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, downside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
downside_2027q4_legacy_margin
2027Q4 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
downside_2027q4_legacy_gross
2027Q4 / downside0.68
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
downside_2027q4_mine_gross
2027Q4 / downside-10.51
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
downside_2027q4_magnet_margin
2027Q4 / downside-6.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
downside_2027q4_magnet_gross
2027Q4 / downside-0.33
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
downside_2027q4_gross_contribution
2027Q4 / downside-10.16
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_legacy_gross, downside_2027q4_mine_gross, downside_2027q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
downside_2027q4_royalty_variable
2027Q4 / downside0.83
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
downside_2027q4_royalty_topup
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
downside_2027q4_royalty_cash
2027Q4 / downside5.83
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_royalty_variable, downside_2027q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
downside_2027q4_transaction_cost
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
downside_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / downside68.75
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
downside_2027q4_operating_costs
2027Q4 / downside107.58
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_overhead, downside_2027q4_royalty_cash, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside-117.74
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_contribution, downside_2027q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
downside_2027q4_dfc_rate
2027Q4 / downside9.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
downside_2027q4_interest_fraction
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
downside_2027q4_dfc_interest
2027Q4 / downside7.31
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, downside_2027q4_dfc_rate, downside_2027q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
downside_2027q4_treasury_income
2027Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
downside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / downside-80.74
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
downside_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside47.81
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_dfc_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-128.55
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_earnings, downside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-348.55
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
downside_2027q4_new_acquisition
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
downside_2027q4_acquired_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_new_acquisition, downside_2027q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
downside_2027q4_minority_investment
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
downside_2027q4_other_investing
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / downside-348.55
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_other_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside31.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_legacy_revenue
FY2026 / downside24.02
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2026q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_mine_revenue
FY2026 / downside7.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, downside_2026q3_mine_revenue, downside_2026q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
downside_fy2026_magnet_revenue
FY2026 / downside0.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_contribution
FY2026 / downside-16.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, downside_2026q3_gross_contribution, downside_2026q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-340.37
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside-328.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside368.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside-696.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / downside170.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_minority_investment
FY2026 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, downside_2026q3_minority_investment, downside_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / downside-866.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside93.81
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_legacy_revenue
FY2027 / downside31.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, downside_2027q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_mine_revenue
FY2027 / downside49.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_mine_revenue, downside_2027q2_mine_revenue, downside_2027q3_mine_revenue, downside_2027q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
downside_fy2027_magnet_revenue
FY2027 / downside13.26
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, downside_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_contribution
FY2027 / downside-45.70
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_contribution, downside_2027q2_gross_contribution, downside_2027q3_gross_contribution, downside_2027q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-428.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-460.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside760.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-1,220.05
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, downside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_minority_investment
FY2027 / downside32.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_minority_investment, downside_2027q2_minority_investment, downside_2027q3_minority_investment, downside_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / downside-1,252.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, downside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2026q3_legacy_revenue
2026Q3 / base6.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2026q3_average_capacity
2026Q3 / base400,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2026q3_mine_utilization
2026Q3 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2026q3_ownership_fraction
2026Q3 / base33.3%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes
2026Q3 / base8,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_average_capacity, base_2026q3_quarter_fraction, base_2026q3_mine_utilization, base_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2026q3_treo_price
2026Q3 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2026q3_mine_revenue
2026Q3 / base2.40
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2026q3_magnet_tonnes
2026Q3 / base500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2026q3_magnet_price
2026Q3 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2026q3_magnet_revenue
2026Q3 / base0.30
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, base_2026q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base9.20
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2026q3_mine_unit_cost
2026Q3 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2026q3_mine_variable_cost
2026Q3 / base1.12
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2026q3_mine_fixed_full
2026Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q3 / base3.67
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, base_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2026q3_mine_cash_cost
2026Q3 / base4.79
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, base_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2026q3_legacy_margin
2026Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2026q3_legacy_gross
2026Q3 / base1.17
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2026q3_mine_gross
2026Q3 / base-2.39
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2026q3_magnet_margin
2026Q3 / base-80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2026q3_magnet_gross
2026Q3 / base-0.24
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_magnet_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2026q3_gross_contribution
2026Q3 / base-1.46
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_legacy_gross, base_2026q3_mine_gross, base_2026q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2026q3_royalty_variable
2026Q3 / base0.13
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2026q3_royalty_topup
2026Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2026q3_royalty_cash
2026Q3 / base2.13
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_royalty_variable, base_2026q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2026q3_transaction_cost
2026Q3 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2026q3_operating_costs
2026Q3 / base135.13
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_overhead, base_2026q3_royalty_cash, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base-136.58
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_contribution, base_2026q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2026q3_dfc_rate
2026Q3 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2026q3_interest_fraction
2026Q3 / base8.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2026q3_dfc_interest
2026Q3 / base2.10
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2026q3_dfc_rate, base_2026q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2026q3_treasury_income
2026Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / base-113.58
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base17.60
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_dfc_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base-131.18
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cash_earnings, base_2026q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base-231.18
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Cash acquired at closing
base_2026q3_acquired_cash
2026Q3 / base140.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / base160.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, base_2026q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2026q3_minority_investment
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2026q3_other_investing
2026Q3 / base160.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / base-391.18
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2026q4_legacy_revenue
2026Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2026q4_average_capacity
2026Q4 / base400,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2026q4_mine_utilization
2026Q4 / base60.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2026q4_ownership_fraction
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes
2026Q4 / base60,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_average_capacity, base_2026q4_quarter_fraction, base_2026q4_mine_utilization, base_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2026q4_treo_price
2026Q4 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2026q4_mine_revenue
2026Q4 / base18.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2026q4_magnet_tonnes
2026Q4 / base2,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2026q4_magnet_price
2026Q4 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2026q4_magnet_revenue
2026Q4 / base1.50
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, base_2026q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base27.50
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2026q4_mine_unit_cost
2026Q4 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2026q4_mine_variable_cost
2026Q4 / base8.40
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2026q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2026q4_mine_fixed_full
2026Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, base_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2026q4_mine_cash_cost
2026Q4 / base19.40
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, base_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2026q4_legacy_margin
2026Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2026q4_legacy_gross
2026Q4 / base1.44
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2026q4_mine_gross
2026Q4 / base-1.40
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2026q4_magnet_margin
2026Q4 / base-65.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2026q4_magnet_gross
2026Q4 / base-0.98
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_magnet_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2026q4_gross_contribution
2026Q4 / base-0.93
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_legacy_gross, base_2026q4_mine_gross, base_2026q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2026q4_royalty_variable
2026Q4 / base0.94
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2026q4_royalty_topup
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2026q4_royalty_cash
2026Q4 / base5.95
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_royalty_variable, base_2026q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2026q4_transaction_cost
2026Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / base43.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2026q4_operating_costs
2026Q4 / base85.94
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_overhead, base_2026q4_royalty_cash, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base-86.88
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_contribution, base_2026q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2026q4_dfc_rate
2026Q4 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2026q4_interest_fraction
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2026q4_dfc_interest
2026Q4 / base6.30
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2026q4_dfc_rate, base_2026q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2026q4_treasury_income
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / base-59.88
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base26.80
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_dfc_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base-86.68
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_earnings, base_2026q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base130.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base-216.68
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
base_2026q4_new_acquisition
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
base_2026q4_acquired_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_new_acquisition, base_2026q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2026q4_minority_investment
2026Q4 / base32.40
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2026q4_other_investing
2026Q4 / base32.40
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / base-249.08
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2027q1_legacy_revenue
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2027q1_average_capacity
2027Q1 / base400,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2027q1_mine_utilization
2027Q1 / base90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2027q1_ownership_fraction
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes
2027Q1 / base90,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_average_capacity, base_2027q1_quarter_fraction, base_2027q1_mine_utilization, base_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2027q1_treo_price
2027Q1 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2027q1_mine_revenue
2027Q1 / base27.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q1_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2027q1_magnet_tonnes
2027Q1 / base6,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2027q1_magnet_price
2027Q1 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2027q1_magnet_revenue
2027Q1 / base3.60
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q1_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base40.60
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q1_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2027q1_mine_unit_cost
2027Q1 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2027q1_mine_variable_cost
2027Q1 / base12.60
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q1_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2027q1_mine_fixed_full
2027Q1 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q1 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2027q1_mine_cash_cost
2027Q1 / base23.60
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2027q1_legacy_margin
2027Q1 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2027q1_legacy_gross
2027Q1 / base1.80
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q1_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2027q1_mine_gross
2027Q1 / base3.40
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q1_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2027q1_magnet_margin
2027Q1 / base-50.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2027q1_magnet_gross
2027Q1 / base-1.80
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_magnet_revenue, base_2027q1_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2027q1_gross_contribution
2027Q1 / base3.40
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_gross, base_2027q1_mine_gross, base_2027q1_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2027q1_royalty_variable
2027Q1 / base1.42
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2027q1_royalty_topup
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2027q1_royalty_cash
2027Q1 / base6.42
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_royalty_variable, base_2027q1_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2027q1_transaction_cost
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / base46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2027q1_operating_costs
2027Q1 / base73.42
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_overhead, base_2027q1_royalty_cash, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base-70.02
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_contribution, base_2027q1_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2027q1_dfc_rate
2027Q1 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2027q1_interest_fraction
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2027q1_dfc_interest
2027Q1 / base6.30
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q1_dfc_rate, base_2027q1_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2027q1_treasury_income
2027Q1 / base7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / base-42.02
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base31.80
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_dfc_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base-73.81
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_earnings, base_2027q1_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base-223.81
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
base_2027q1_new_acquisition
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
base_2027q1_acquired_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_new_acquisition, base_2027q1_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2027q1_minority_investment
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2027q1_other_investing
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q1_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / base-223.81
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2027q2_legacy_revenue
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2027q2_average_capacity
2027Q2 / base480,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2027q2_mine_utilization
2027Q2 / base87.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2027q2_ownership_fraction
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes
2027Q2 / base105,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_average_capacity, base_2027q2_quarter_fraction, base_2027q2_mine_utilization, base_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2027q2_treo_price
2027Q2 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2027q2_mine_revenue
2027Q2 / base31.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q2_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2027q2_magnet_tonnes
2027Q2 / base12,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2027q2_magnet_price
2027Q2 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2027q2_magnet_revenue
2027Q2 / base7.20
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q2_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base50.70
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2027q2_mine_unit_cost
2027Q2 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2027q2_mine_variable_cost
2027Q2 / base14.70
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q2_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2027q2_mine_fixed_full
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2027q2_mine_cash_cost
2027Q2 / base25.70
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2027q2_legacy_margin
2027Q2 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2027q2_legacy_gross
2027Q2 / base2.16
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2027q2_mine_gross
2027Q2 / base5.80
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2027q2_magnet_margin
2027Q2 / base-35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2027q2_magnet_gross
2027Q2 / base-2.52
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_magnet_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2027q2_gross_contribution
2027Q2 / base5.44
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_legacy_gross, base_2027q2_mine_gross, base_2027q2_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2027q2_royalty_variable
2027Q2 / base1.65
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2027q2_royalty_topup
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2027q2_royalty_cash
2027Q2 / base6.65
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_royalty_variable, base_2027q2_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2027q2_transaction_cost
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / base49.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2027q2_operating_costs
2027Q2 / base80.65
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_overhead, base_2027q2_royalty_cash, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base-75.21
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_contribution, base_2027q2_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2027q2_dfc_rate
2027Q2 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2027q2_interest_fraction
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2027q2_dfc_interest
2027Q2 / base6.30
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q2_dfc_rate, base_2027q2_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2027q2_treasury_income
2027Q2 / base6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / base-44.21
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base36.80
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_dfc_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base-81.01
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_earnings, base_2027q2_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base170.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-251.01
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
base_2027q2_new_acquisition
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
base_2027q2_acquired_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_new_acquisition, base_2027q2_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2027q2_minority_investment
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2027q2_other_investing
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / base-251.01
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2027q3_legacy_revenue
2027Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2027q3_average_capacity
2027Q3 / base580,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2027q3_mine_utilization
2027Q3 / base79.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2027q3_ownership_fraction
2027Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes
2027Q3 / base115,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_average_capacity, base_2027q3_quarter_fraction, base_2027q3_mine_utilization, base_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2027q3_treo_price
2027Q3 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2027q3_mine_revenue
2027Q3 / base34.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2027q3_magnet_tonnes
2027Q3 / base18,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2027q3_magnet_price
2027Q3 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2027q3_magnet_revenue
2027Q3 / base10.80
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base59.30
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2027q3_mine_unit_cost
2027Q3 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2027q3_mine_variable_cost
2027Q3 / base16.10
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2027q3_mine_fixed_full
2027Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2027q3_mine_cash_cost
2027Q3 / base27.10
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2027q3_legacy_margin
2027Q3 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2027q3_legacy_gross
2027Q3 / base2.52
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2027q3_mine_gross
2027Q3 / base7.40
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2027q3_magnet_margin
2027Q3 / base-20.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2027q3_magnet_gross
2027Q3 / base-2.16
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_magnet_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2027q3_gross_contribution
2027Q3 / base7.76
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_legacy_gross, base_2027q3_mine_gross, base_2027q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2027q3_royalty_variable
2027Q3 / base1.81
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2027q3_royalty_topup
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2027q3_royalty_cash
2027Q3 / base6.81
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_royalty_variable, base_2027q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2027q3_transaction_cost
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / base52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2027q3_operating_costs
2027Q3 / base87.81
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_overhead, base_2027q3_royalty_cash, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base-80.05
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_contribution, base_2027q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2027q3_dfc_rate
2027Q3 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2027q3_interest_fraction
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2027q3_dfc_interest
2027Q3 / base6.30
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q3_dfc_rate, base_2027q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2027q3_treasury_income
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / base-46.05
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base41.80
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_dfc_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base-87.85
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_earnings, base_2027q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-277.85
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
base_2027q3_new_acquisition
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
base_2027q3_acquired_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_new_acquisition, base_2027q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2027q3_minority_investment
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2027q3_other_investing
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / base-277.85
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
base_2027q4_legacy_revenue
2027Q4 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
base_2027q4_average_capacity
2027Q4 / base640,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
base_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
base_2027q4_mine_utilization
2027Q4 / base78.1%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
base_2027q4_ownership_fraction
2027Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes
2027Q4 / base125,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_average_capacity, base_2027q4_quarter_fraction, base_2027q4_mine_utilization, base_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
base_2027q4_treo_price
2027Q4 / base0.03
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
base_2027q4_mine_revenue
2027Q4 / base37.50
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
base_2027q4_magnet_tonnes
2027Q4 / base25,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
base_2027q4_magnet_price
2027Q4 / base0.06
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
base_2027q4_magnet_revenue
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, base_2027q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base68.50
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
base_2027q4_mine_unit_cost
2027Q4 / base0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
base_2027q4_mine_variable_cost
2027Q4 / base17.50
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, base_2027q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
base_2027q4_mine_fixed_full
2027Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
base_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, base_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
base_2027q4_mine_cash_cost
2027Q4 / base28.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, base_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
base_2027q4_legacy_margin
2027Q4 / base18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
base_2027q4_legacy_gross
2027Q4 / base2.88
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
base_2027q4_mine_gross
2027Q4 / base9.00
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
base_2027q4_magnet_margin
2027Q4 / base-5.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
base_2027q4_magnet_gross
2027Q4 / base-0.75
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_magnet_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
base_2027q4_gross_contribution
2027Q4 / base11.13
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_legacy_gross, base_2027q4_mine_gross, base_2027q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
base_2027q4_royalty_variable
2027Q4 / base1.97
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
base_2027q4_royalty_topup
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
base_2027q4_royalty_cash
2027Q4 / base6.97
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_royalty_variable, base_2027q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
base_2027q4_transaction_cost
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
base_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
base_2027q4_operating_costs
2027Q4 / base94.97
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_overhead, base_2027q4_royalty_cash, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base-83.84
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_contribution, base_2027q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
base_2027q4_dfc_rate
2027Q4 / base7.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
base_2027q4_interest_fraction
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
base_2027q4_dfc_interest
2027Q4 / base6.30
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, base_2027q4_dfc_rate, base_2027q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
base_2027q4_treasury_income
2027Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
base_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / base-46.84
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
base_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base46.80
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_dfc_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base-93.64
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_earnings, base_2027q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-303.64
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
base_2027q4_new_acquisition
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
base_2027q4_acquired_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
base_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_new_acquisition, base_2027q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
base_2027q4_minority_investment
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
base_2027q4_other_investing
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
base_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / base-303.64
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_other_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base48.22
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_legacy_revenue
FY2026 / base26.02
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, base_2026q3_legacy_revenue, base_2026q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_mine_revenue
FY2026 / base20.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, base_2026q3_mine_revenue, base_2026q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
base_fy2026_magnet_revenue
FY2026 / base1.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, base_2026q3_magnet_revenue, base_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_contribution
FY2026 / base-2.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, base_2026q3_gross_contribution, base_2026q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base-306.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base-293.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base338.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base-631.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
base_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / base160.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, base_2026q3_acquisition_cash, base_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
base_fy2026_minority_investment
FY2026 / base32.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, base_2026q3_minority_investment, base_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / base-823.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, base_2026q3_cash_after_investing, base_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base219.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_legacy_revenue
FY2027 / base52.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_legacy_revenue, base_2027q2_legacy_revenue, base_2027q3_legacy_revenue, base_2027q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_mine_revenue
FY2027 / base130.50
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_mine_revenue, base_2027q2_mine_revenue, base_2027q3_mine_revenue, base_2027q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
base_fy2027_magnet_revenue
FY2027 / base36.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_magnet_revenue, base_2027q2_magnet_revenue, base_2027q3_magnet_revenue, base_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_contribution
FY2027 / base27.73
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_contribution, base_2027q2_gross_contribution, base_2027q3_gross_contribution, base_2027q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base-309.12
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base-336.31
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base720.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-1,056.31
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
base_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_acquisition_cash, base_2027q2_acquisition_cash, base_2027q3_acquisition_cash, base_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
base_fy2027_minority_investment
FY2027 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_minority_investment, base_2027q2_minority_investment, base_2027q3_minority_investment, base_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / base-1,056.31
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investing, base_2027q2_cash_after_investing, base_2027q3_cash_after_investing, base_2027q4_cash_after_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue
2026Q3 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2026q3_average_capacity
2026Q3 / upside400,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction
2026Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2026q3_mine_utilization
2026Q3 / upside35.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction
2026Q3 / upside33.3%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes
2026Q3 / upside11,666.7%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_average_capacity, upside_2026q3_quarter_fraction, upside_2026q3_mine_utilization, upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2026q3_treo_price
2026Q3 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2026q3_mine_revenue
2026Q3 / upside4.43
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes
2026Q3 / upside1,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2026q3_magnet_price
2026Q3 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue
2026Q3 / upside0.66
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_magnet_tonnes, upside_2026q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside12.09
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost
2026Q3 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost
2026Q3 / upside1.55
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full
2026Q3 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q3 / upside3.48
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_full, upside_2026q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost
2026Q3 / upside5.03
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_mine_variable_cost, upside_2026q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2026q3_legacy_margin
2026Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2026q3_legacy_gross
2026Q3 / upside1.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2026q3_mine_gross
2026Q3 / upside-0.60
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2026q3_magnet_margin
2026Q3 / upside-76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2026q3_magnet_gross
2026Q3 / upside-0.50
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2026q3_gross_contribution
2026Q3 / upside0.65
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_legacy_gross, upside_2026q3_mine_gross, upside_2026q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2026q3_royalty_variable
2026Q3 / upside0.23
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2026q3_royalty_topup
2026Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2026q3_royalty_cash
2026Q3 / upside2.23
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_royalty_variable, upside_2026q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2026q3_transaction_cost
2026Q3 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2026q3_cash_overhead
2026Q3 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2026q3_operating_costs
2026Q3 / upside133.23
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_overhead, upside_2026q3_royalty_cash, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside-132.59
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_contribution, upside_2026q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2026q3_dfc_rate
2026Q3 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2026q3_interest_fraction
2026Q3 / upside8.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2026q3_dfc_interest
2026Q3 / upside1.90
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2026q3_dfc_rate, upside_2026q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2026q3_treasury_income
2026Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2026q3_cash_earnings
2026Q3 / upside-109.59
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2026q3_working_capital
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside17.40
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_dfc_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside-126.98
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cash_earnings, upside_2026q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside110.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside-236.98
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2026q3_acquired_cash
2026Q3 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash
2026Q3 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(acquisition_gross_cash, upside_2026q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2026q3_minority_investment
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2026q3_other_investing
2026Q3 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing
2026Q3 / upside-386.98
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue
2026Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2026q4_average_capacity
2026Q4 / upside420,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction
2026Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2026q4_mine_utilization
2026Q4 / upside80.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes
2026Q4 / upside84,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_average_capacity, upside_2026q4_quarter_fraction, upside_2026q4_mine_utilization, upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2026q4_treo_price
2026Q4 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2026q4_mine_revenue
2026Q4 / upside31.92
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes
2026Q4 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2026q4_magnet_price
2026Q4 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue
2026Q4 / upside2.64
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_magnet_tonnes, upside_2026q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside43.56
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost
2026Q4 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost
2026Q4 / upside11.17
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2026q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full
2026Q4 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost
2026Q4 / upside10.45
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_full, upside_2026q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost
2026Q4 / upside21.62
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_mine_variable_cost, upside_2026q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2026q4_legacy_margin
2026Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2026q4_legacy_gross
2026Q4 / upside2.25
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2026q4_mine_gross
2026Q4 / upside10.30
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2026q4_magnet_margin
2026Q4 / upside-61.7%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2026q4_magnet_gross
2026Q4 / upside-1.63
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2026q4_gross_contribution
2026Q4 / upside10.92
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_legacy_gross, upside_2026q4_mine_gross, upside_2026q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2026q4_royalty_variable
2026Q4 / upside1.68
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2026q4_royalty_topup
2026Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2026q4_royalty_cash
2026Q4 / upside6.68
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_royalty_variable, upside_2026q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside9.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2026q4_transaction_cost
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2026q4_cash_overhead
2026Q4 / upside40.85
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2026q4_operating_costs
2026Q4 / upside84.53
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_overhead, upside_2026q4_royalty_cash, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside-73.61
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_contribution, upside_2026q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2026q4_dfc_rate
2026Q4 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2026q4_interest_fraction
2026Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2026q4_dfc_interest
2026Q4 / upside5.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2026q4_dfc_rate, upside_2026q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2026q4_treasury_income
2026Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2026q4_cash_earnings
2026Q4 / upside-46.61
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2026q4_working_capital
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside26.19
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_dfc_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside-72.80
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_earnings, upside_2026q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside140.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside-212.80
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
upside_2026q4_new_acquisition
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2026q4_acquired_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_new_acquisition, upside_2026q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2026q4_minority_investment
2026Q4 / upside32.40
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2026q4_other_investing
2026Q4 / upside32.40
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing
2026Q4 / upside-245.20
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2027q1_average_capacity
2027Q1 / upside440,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction
2027Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2027q1_mine_utilization
2027Q1 / upside90.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes
2027Q1 / upside99,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_average_capacity, upside_2027q1_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q1_mine_utilization, upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q1_treo_price
2027Q1 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2027q1_mine_revenue
2027Q1 / upside37.62
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q1_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes
2027Q1 / upside10,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q1_magnet_price
2027Q1 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue
2027Q1 / upside6.60
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q1_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside56.22
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost
2027Q1 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost
2027Q1 / upside13.17
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q1_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full
2027Q1 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q1 / upside10.45
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q1_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost
2027Q1 / upside23.62
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q1_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2027q1_legacy_margin
2027Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2027q1_legacy_gross
2027Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q1_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2027q1_mine_gross
2027Q1 / upside14.00
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q1_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2027q1_magnet_margin
2027Q1 / upside-47.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2027q1_magnet_gross
2027Q1 / upside-3.14
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q1_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2027q1_gross_contribution
2027Q1 / upside13.87
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_gross, upside_2027q1_mine_gross, upside_2027q1_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2027q1_royalty_variable
2027Q1 / upside1.98
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2027q1_royalty_topup
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2027q1_royalty_cash
2027Q1 / upside6.98
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_royalty_variable, upside_2027q1_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2027q1_transaction_cost
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2027q1_cash_overhead
2027Q1 / upside43.70
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2027q1_operating_costs
2027Q1 / upside71.68
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_overhead, upside_2027q1_royalty_cash, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside-57.81
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_contribution, upside_2027q1_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2027q1_dfc_rate
2027Q1 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2027q1_interest_fraction
2027Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2027q1_dfc_interest
2027Q1 / upside5.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q1_dfc_rate, upside_2027q1_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2027q1_treasury_income
2027Q1 / upside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2027q1_cash_earnings
2027Q1 / upside-29.81
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2027q1_working_capital
2027Q1 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside31.19
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_dfc_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside-60.99
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_earnings, upside_2027q1_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside160.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside-220.99
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
upside_2027q1_new_acquisition
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2027q1_acquired_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_new_acquisition, upside_2027q1_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2027q1_minority_investment
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2027q1_other_investing
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q1_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing
2027Q1 / upside-220.99
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue
2027Q2 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2027q2_average_capacity
2027Q2 / upside520,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2027q2_mine_utilization
2027Q2 / upside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes
2027Q2 / upside123,500.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_average_capacity, upside_2027q2_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q2_mine_utilization, upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q2_treo_price
2027Q2 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2027q2_mine_revenue
2027Q2 / upside46.93
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q2_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes
2027Q2 / upside20,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q2_magnet_price
2027Q2 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue
2027Q2 / upside13.20
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q2_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside75.13
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost
2027Q2 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost
2027Q2 / upside16.43
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q2_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full
2027Q2 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q2 / upside10.45
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q2_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost
2027Q2 / upside26.88
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q2_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2027q2_legacy_margin
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2027q2_legacy_gross
2027Q2 / upside3.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2027q2_mine_gross
2027Q2 / upside20.05
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2027q2_magnet_margin
2027Q2 / upside-33.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2027q2_magnet_gross
2027Q2 / upside-4.39
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2027q2_gross_contribution
2027Q2 / upside19.42
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_legacy_gross, upside_2027q2_mine_gross, upside_2027q2_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2027q2_royalty_variable
2027Q2 / upside2.46
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2027q2_royalty_topup
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2027q2_royalty_cash
2027Q2 / upside7.46
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_royalty_variable, upside_2027q2_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2027q2_transaction_cost
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2027q2_cash_overhead
2027Q2 / upside46.55
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2027q2_operating_costs
2027Q2 / upside79.01
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_overhead, upside_2027q2_royalty_cash, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside-59.60
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_contribution, upside_2027q2_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2027q2_dfc_rate
2027Q2 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2027q2_interest_fraction
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2027q2_dfc_interest
2027Q2 / upside5.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q2_dfc_rate, upside_2027q2_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2027q2_treasury_income
2027Q2 / upside6.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2027q2_cash_earnings
2027Q2 / upside-28.60
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2027q2_working_capital
2027Q2 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside36.19
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_dfc_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside-64.79
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_earnings, upside_2027q2_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside190.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside-254.79
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
upside_2027q2_new_acquisition
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2027q2_acquired_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_new_acquisition, upside_2027q2_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2027q2_minority_investment
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2027q2_other_investing
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing
2027Q2 / upside-254.79
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue
2027Q3 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2027q3_average_capacity
2027Q3 / upside640,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2027q3_mine_utilization
2027Q3 / upside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction
2027Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes
2027Q3 / upside152,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_average_capacity, upside_2027q3_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q3_mine_utilization, upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q3_treo_price
2027Q3 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2027q3_mine_revenue
2027Q3 / upside57.76
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q3_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes
2027Q3 / upside32,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q3_magnet_price
2027Q3 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue
2027Q3 / upside21.12
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q3_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside97.88
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost
2027Q3 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost
2027Q3 / upside20.22
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q3_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full
2027Q3 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q3 / upside10.45
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q3_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost
2027Q3 / upside30.67
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q3_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2027q3_legacy_margin
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2027q3_legacy_gross
2027Q3 / upside4.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2027q3_mine_gross
2027Q3 / upside27.09
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2027q3_magnet_margin
2027Q3 / upside-19.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2027q3_magnet_gross
2027Q3 / upside-4.01
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2027q3_gross_contribution
2027Q3 / upside27.83
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_legacy_gross, upside_2027q3_mine_gross, upside_2027q3_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2027q3_royalty_variable
2027Q3 / upside3.03
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2027q3_royalty_topup
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2027q3_royalty_cash
2027Q3 / upside8.03
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_royalty_variable, upside_2027q3_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2027q3_transaction_cost
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2027q3_cash_overhead
2027Q3 / upside49.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2027q3_operating_costs
2027Q3 / upside86.43
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_overhead, upside_2027q3_royalty_cash, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside-58.60
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_contribution, upside_2027q3_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2027q3_dfc_rate
2027Q3 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2027q3_interest_fraction
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2027q3_dfc_interest
2027Q3 / upside5.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q3_dfc_rate, upside_2027q3_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2027q3_treasury_income
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2027q3_cash_earnings
2027Q3 / upside-24.60
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2027q3_working_capital
2027Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside41.19
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_dfc_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside-65.79
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_earnings, upside_2027q3_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside-285.79
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
upside_2027q3_new_acquisition
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2027q3_acquired_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_new_acquisition, upside_2027q3_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2027q3_minority_investment
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2027q3_other_investing
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing
2027Q3 / upside-285.79
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_other_investing).
Legacy alloy and services revenue
upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue
2027Q4 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Average annualized operating TREO capacity
upside_2027q4_average_capacity
2027Q4 / upside640,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Count of annual tonnes; average in-service capacity rather than end-period nameplate.
Annual-to-quarter fraction
upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Capacity to recognized sales factor
upside_2027q4_mine_utilization
2027Q4 / upside95.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated fraction of quarter
upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction
2027Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: September 3 close approximated as one month in Q3; not 100% of Q3 or retroactive H1.
Post-close sold TREO tonnes
upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes
2027Q4 / upside152,000.0%
ratio
derived: Physical throughput, sale acceptance and consolidation timing jointly constrain revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_average_capacity, upside_2027q4_quarter_fraction, upside_2027q4_mine_utilization, upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Realized blended TREO price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q4_treo_price
2027Q4 / upside0.04
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Post-close TREO revenue
upside_2027q4_mine_revenue
2027Q4 / upside57.76
USD_millions
derived: Desk mixed-product price, not a disclosed contractual floor; .03 million/tonne equals $30/kg. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q4_treo_price).
Accepted external magnet tonnes
upside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes
2027Q4 / upside45,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Realized magnet price in $M per tonne
upside_2027q4_magnet_price
2027Q4 / upside0.07
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Accepted magnet sales
upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue
2027Q4 / upside29.70
USD_millions
derived: Only external accepted product; no revenue from installing equipment. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_magnet_tonnes, upside_2027q4_magnet_price).
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside110.46
USD_millions
derived: No double-counted transfer of acquired mine output to company factories; no Carester or Round Top sales. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Cash production cost in $M per tonne
upside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost
2027Q4 / upside0.01
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Variable mine cash cost
upside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost
2027Q4 / upside20.22
USD_millions
derived: Inventory timing is handled in working capital. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_recognized_tonnes, upside_2027q4_mine_unit_cost).
Full-quarter mine fixed cost
upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full
2027Q4 / upside10.45
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Consolidated mine fixed operating cost
upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost
2027Q4 / upside10.45
USD_millions
derived: Q3 includes acquired-period fraction only. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_full, upside_2027q4_ownership_fraction).
Mine cash production cost
upside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost
2027Q4 / upside30.67
USD_millions
derived: Excludes royalty and depreciation, shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_mine_variable_cost, upside_2027q4_mine_fixed_cost).
Legacy margin before D&A
upside_2027q4_legacy_margin
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Legacy cash gross contribution
upside_2027q4_legacy_gross
2027Q4 / upside5.75
USD_millions
derived: Desk cash contribution assumption. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_legacy_margin).
Mine revenue less cash production
upside_2027q4_mine_gross
2027Q4 / upside27.09
USD_millions
derived: Royalty below contribution. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_cash_cost).
Magnet cash gross margin
upside_2027q4_magnet_margin
2027Q4 / upside-4.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Magnet ramp cash contribution
upside_2027q4_magnet_gross
2027Q4 / upside-1.41
USD_millions
derived: Low utilization and qualification can keep early magnet economics negative. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_margin).
Gross contribution before D&A and royalty
upside_2027q4_gross_contribution
2027Q4 / upside31.43
USD_millions
derived: Analytical measure, not reported gross profit or adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_legacy_gross, upside_2027q4_mine_gross, upside_2027q4_magnet_gross).
Variable mine royalty
upside_2027q4_royalty_variable
2027Q4 / upside3.03
USD_millions
derived: Reference contractual rate, applied to modeled external sales. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_mine_revenue, royalty_rate).
Royalty minimum and timing cash top-up
upside_2027q4_royalty_topup
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk allowance beyond percentage royalty; actual minimum/timing requires post-close disclosure.
Variable royalty plus minimum allowance
upside_2027q4_royalty_cash
2027Q4 / upside8.03
USD_millions
derived: Economic cash charge; noncash liability remeasurement excluded. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_royalty_variable, upside_2027q4_royalty_topup).
Consolidated operating D&A
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk in-service/PPA depreciation and amortization allowance; provisional fair values do not imply all assets depreciate immediately.
Operating SBC
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Acquisition transaction expense/cash proxy
upside_2027q4_transaction_cost
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk cash settlement of fees; $96.372M pro forma reference is not confirmed paid at close.
Cash SG&A and development
upside_2027q4_cash_overhead
2027Q4 / upside52.25
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Corporate R&D royalty noncash and transaction costs
upside_2027q4_operating_costs
2027Q4 / upside93.28
USD_millions
derived: Includes acquisition costs; no underlying profit presented as GAAP. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_overhead, upside_2027q4_royalty_cash, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_transaction_cost).
Operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside-61.85
USD_millions
derived: Royalty cash approximates economic cost; full GAAP amortized-cost/fair-value bridge is not provided. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_contribution, upside_2027q4_operating_costs).
SOFR plus spread coupon assumption
upside_2027q4_dfc_rate
2027Q4 / upside7.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Quarter/consolidation interest fraction
upside_2027q4_interest_fraction
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
DFC cash coupon proxy
upside_2027q4_dfc_interest
2027Q4 / upside5.69
USD_millions
derived: Desk floating rate applied to remaining principal reference, not a cash payment calendar. Formula: multiply(dfc_remaining_reference, upside_2027q4_dfc_rate, upside_2027q4_interest_fraction).
Cash treasury income
upside_2027q4_treasury_income
2027Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Operating income plus noncash costs and treasury income
upside_2027q4_cash_earnings
2027Q4 / upside-24.85
USD_millions
derived: No government warrants or debt forgiveness treated as operating cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_treasury_income).
Cash taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside0.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Inventory receivable and other working-capital use
upside_2027q4_working_capital
2027Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Interest tax and working-capital use
upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside46.19
USD_millions
derived: Purchased opening working capital is in acquisition cash, not deducted again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_dfc_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_working_capital).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside-71.04
USD_millions
derived: Transaction cost already deducted; settlement differences remain an explicit limitation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_earnings, upside_2027q4_operating_cash_uses).
Cash capex and equipment deposits
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less cash capital investment
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside-311.04
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and minority investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Other acquisition purchase cash
upside_2027q4_new_acquisition
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash acquired at closing
upside_2027q4_acquired_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk closing-cash estimate from June $162.413M reference; not confirmed September cash.
Net acquisition cash
upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Gross purchase consideration is received by sellers; acquired cash enters consolidation once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_new_acquisition, upside_2027q4_acquired_cash).
Carester minority investment cash
upside_2027q4_minority_investment
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Conditional future closing assumption based on disclosed approximate USD cash consideration; no consolidation of Carester sales.
Acquisition and minority cash
upside_2027q4_other_investing
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: No automatic government draw to offset the cash demand. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing
upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing
2027Q4 / upside-311.04
USD_millions
derived: Before external financing, debt/lease principal and other capital allocation; not ending unrestricted cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_other_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside67.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_legacy_revenue
FY2026 / upside27.52
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2026q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_mine_revenue
FY2026 / upside36.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_mine_revenue, upside_2026q3_mine_revenue, upside_2026q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
upside_fy2026_magnet_revenue
FY2026 / upside3.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2026q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_contribution
FY2026 / upside11.67
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_contribution, upside_2026q3_gross_contribution, upside_2026q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside-289.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside-275.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside358.39
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside-633.49
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_acquisition_cash
FY2026 / upside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2026q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_minority_investment
FY2026 / upside32.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_minority_investment, upside_2026q3_minority_investment, upside_2026q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_investing
FY2026 / upside-815.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2026q4_cash_after_investing).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside339.69
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Legacy alloy and service revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_legacy_revenue
FY2027 / upside69.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q2_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q3_legacy_revenue, upside_2027q4_legacy_revenue).
Post-close mine revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_mine_revenue
FY2027 / upside200.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_mine_revenue, upside_2027q2_mine_revenue, upside_2027q3_mine_revenue, upside_2027q4_mine_revenue).
Accepted magnet sales ($M)
upside_fy2027_magnet_revenue
FY2027 / upside70.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q2_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q3_magnet_revenue, upside_2027q4_magnet_revenue).
Gross contribution before D&A ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_contribution
FY2027 / upside92.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_contribution, upside_2027q2_gross_contribution, upside_2027q3_gross_contribution, upside_2027q4_gross_contribution).
Operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside-237.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside-262.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash capex and equipment deposits ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside810.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside-1,072.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Net acquisition cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_acquisition_cash
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q2_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q3_acquisition_cash, upside_2027q4_acquisition_cash).
Minority investment cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_minority_investment
FY2027 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_minority_investment, upside_2027q2_minority_investment, upside_2027q3_minority_investment, upside_2027q4_minority_investment).
Cash after business investing ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_investing
FY2027 / upside-1,072.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q2_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q3_cash_after_investing, upside_2027q4_cash_after_investing).

Model boundaries

The closed mine acquisition and the cash needed to scale

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can mine ramp and qualified magnet shipments create an integrated business before cash requirements overwhelm funding flexibility?

USAR reported H1 revenue of $11.5M, operating loss $83.0M, CFO negative $75.3M and $108.4M cash capex/equipment deposits. June unrestricted cash was $1.530B with another $64.2M restricted. Serra Verde closed September 3 for $300M cash and 126.849M shares; Q3 therefore contains only acquired-period activity. The furnished Serra Verde H1 historical revenue was $0.588M. Target year-end annual TREO run rate is 4,000 tonnes, with a subsequent expansion toward 6,400 tonnes. Capacity is not yet recognized sales. June Serra Verde debt principal was $425M, including a $100M incremental DFC loan extinguished at closing; the remaining $325M reference still carries financing claims. Government commitments of up to $277M funding and $1.3B loans are milestone-dependent. The model shows business cash demand before assuming those facilities are drawn.

The competing explanation

Mine and magnet capacity can grow faster than accepted sales. Low utilization, acquired debt, royalty minimums, working capital and transaction costs can absorb cash before integration produces economic returns.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Updated for completed Serra Verde acquisition with separate ramp, royalties, cash purchase and conditional funding.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-2.7+0.2+3.454%
5 sessions-6.3-0.1+7.749%
10 sessions-9.0-0.3+10.148%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-08 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-10 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: Revenues, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  2. [2] reported: Revenues, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  3. [3] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  4. [4] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  5. [5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  6. [6] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000021, 10-K filed 2026-03-30; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  7. [7] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  8. [8] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  9. [9] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  10. [10] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000021, 10-K filed 2026-03-30; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  11. [11] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  12. [12] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  13. [13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  14. [14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  15. [15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  16. [16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  17. [17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  18. [18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001213900-24-098549, 10-Q filed 2024-11-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001970622-26-000021, 10-K filed 2026-03-30; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  21. [21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001213900-25-043743, 10-Q filed 2025-05-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  25. [25] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001970622-25-000074, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  26. [26] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001970622-26-000021, 10-K filed 2026-03-30; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  27. [27] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  28. [28] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001970622-26-000057, 10-Q filed 2026-08-10; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  29. [29] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001213900-25-043743, 10-Q filed 2025-05-15; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json
  30. [30] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001970622-26-000038, 10-Q filed 2026-05-14; retrieved 2026-09-20T00:11:45+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001970622.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-20T00:11:45.849215+00:00 · authored cc2d6f83564e · generated 7add07536d40 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard