ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · TRANSPORT, INDUSTRIALS & DEFENSE

$SYM

Symbotic Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 3569 · CIK 1837240 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Symbotic sells robotic warehouse Systems plus software maintenance and operation services. Revenue depends on deployment work and the installed base, while customer advances and contract-cost spending make cash seasonal. Walmart and the Exol warehouse venture dominate contracted demand. Exol is a 35%-owned unconsolidated investment as well as a customer, so capital calls and system sales must be evaluated separately. July-acquired ARMS adds warehouse software capabilities.

Three drivers

  1. Systems deployment execution and recurring service mix
  2. Customer advances versus inventory and contract-cost investment
  3. Concentrated demand, Exol capital calls and ownership claims

Thesis

Our view

Q3 delivered positive operating income, but cash conversion remains uneven: quarter FCF was negative $164.630M, while nine-month FCF was positive $242.831M with $368.777M of deferred-revenue funding. Backlog is substantial but concentrated and long dated. The operating model separates service economics from customer financing and Exol capital, without converting consolidated profit into an unsupported Class A EPS forecast.

What changes it

Track systems completion, recurring-service margins, customer billing and contract costs together. Reconcile Exol contributions and investment gains separately, and monitor component-program spending and financial-control remediation.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q4
2024-09-28
2025Q1
2024-12-28
2025Q2
2025-03-29
2025Q3
2025-06-28
2025Q4
2025-09-27
2026Q1
2025-12-27
2026Q2
2026-03-28
2026Q3
2026-06-27
Revenue ($M)564.61486.72549.73592.14618.5†5630.02676.53720.84
Gross profit ($M)96.4681.07110.88111.89119.0†10133.47150.08160.99
Operating income ($M)10.911-23.012-20.513-25.814-45.8†156.5126.11332.914
Net income ($M)2.816-3.217-1.818-3.919-8.0†202.6172.01811.719
EPS, diluted ($)0.0321-0.0322-0.0223-0.04240.02220.01230.0924
Diluted shares (M)106.125107.726109.227127.925134.426133.327
Cash ($M)727.328903.029954.930777.6311,245.0311,819.1292,009.4301,746.431
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)-99.4†32205.033269.6†34-196.5†35588.8†32191.533261.3†34-147.3†35
Capex ($M)20.7†367.43720.63814.93936.2†402.1†4143.43917.339
Free cash flow ($M)-120.1†42197.7†43249.0†44-211.4†45552.6†46189.5†47218.0†48-164.6†45

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q4770.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q1793.82026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q2865.92026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q3938.12026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Deployment revenue, recurring service mix and customer-funded cash

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Separate Systems, Software Maintenance/Support and Operation Services. Preserve nine-month actuals, anchor Q4 to August guidance and extend the three streams independently into FY2027. Use GAAP stream gross margins and an explicit noncash cost allocation to bridge to adjusted EBITDA, then ordinary compensation/depreciation to an operating-income proxy. Separate deferred-revenue funding from other working capital, combined PP&E/software cash and strategic-investment/JV capital.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2026 Q4 revenue outlook midpoint2026Q4770.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook midpoint2026Q4102.50derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Nine-month company FCF9M FY2026242.83derived. Combined PP&E and capitalized software, not PP&E alone.
Nine-month FCF excluding deferred funding9M FY2026-125.95derived. Analytical timing measure, not company adjusted FCF.
Q3 company FCF2026Q3-164.63derived. Negative despite positive quarter earnings.
Nine-month deferred funding9M FY2026368.78reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05
backlog2026Q322,500.00reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
RPO conversion reference for next 12 monthsJune 20263,375.00derived. Subset of total RPO; does not guarantee billed cash or calendar-year sales.
Largest customer Q3 revenue share2026Q390.5%reported. Customer A including affiliates/subsidiaries/consolidated entities; filing reports concentration without naming that row. Source · 2026-08-05
cash2026Q31,746.45reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
restricted cash2026Q327.13reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
exol future commitment2026Q31,487.90reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month exol cash9M FY202673.20reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-05
tra expected payments2026Q3487.00reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
component program charge2026Q334.30reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
q3 consolidated net income2026Q355.00reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05
q3 common income2026Q311.67reported. Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Source · 2026-08-05

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E and software ($M)Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Systems revenue ($M)Operation Services revenue ($M)Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
2026Q4-69.05-94.0525.00723.80671.3039.0013.50153.5479.955.9511.95-150.05
2027Q190.6858.6832.00682.21632.5235.3714.32145.6855.68-41.32-17.32-3.32
2027Q2-76.07-110.0734.00744.23690.0238.5915.62158.9367.93-30.07-10.07-177.07
2027Q383.1747.1736.00806.25747.5241.8016.93172.1780.17-2.83-2.83-24.83
FY2026236.53148.7887.752,751.102,567.04133.9950.07597.83319.83-120.0057.46-51.83
FY2027113.20-26.80140.003,100.972,875.08160.7965.10662.20296.20-66.80-25.80-304.80

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E and software ($M)Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Systems revenue ($M)Operation Services revenue ($M)Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
2026Q4168.50143.5025.00770.00714.0042.0014.00194.60102.5043.5034.5092.50
2027Q1191.82159.8232.00793.78734.9042.1916.69201.82113.8239.8240.82102.82
2027Q2-5.84-39.8434.00865.95801.7146.0318.21220.16131.1660.1653.16-101.84
2027Q3256.51220.5136.00938.11868.5249.8619.72238.51148.5170.5165.51153.51
FY2026474.08386.3387.752,797.302,609.74136.9950.57638.89342.38-82.4580.01190.72
FY2027621.35481.35140.003,608.113,340.47191.7875.86917.35559.35261.35237.35223.35

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow ($M)CFO less PP&E and software ($M)Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)Revenue ($M)Systems revenue ($M)Operation Services revenue ($M)Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
2026Q4269.75244.7525.00789.25730.7544.0014.50216.24112.7564.7544.75193.75
2027Q1296.92264.9232.00863.34797.4047.4018.54237.92146.9284.9273.92207.92
2027Q287.5553.5534.00941.82869.8951.7020.23259.55167.55103.5589.55-8.45
2027Q3336.18300.1836.001,020.31942.3856.0121.91281.18188.18120.18105.18233.18
FY2026575.33487.5887.752,816.552,626.49138.9951.07660.53352.63-61.2090.26291.97
FY2027982.45842.45140.003,924.263,624.56215.4384.271,081.45711.45452.45389.45584.45
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
Nine-month revenue
ytd_revenue
9M FY2026 / shared2,027.30
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month systems
ytd_systems
9M FY2026 / shared1,895.74
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month maintenance
ytd_maintenance
9M FY2026 / shared36.57
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month operations
ytd_operations
9M FY2026 / shared94.99
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month gross profit
ytd_gross_profit
9M FY2026 / shared444.29
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month adjusted ebitda
ytd_adjusted_ebitda
9M FY2026 / shared239.88
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month operating income
ytd_operating_income
9M FY2026 / shared45.51
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month cfo
ytd_cfo
9M FY2026 / shared305.58
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month capex
ytd_capex
9M FY2026 / shared62.75
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month deferred funding
ytd_deferred_funding
9M FY2026 / shared368.78
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month strategic investments
ytd_strategic_investments
9M FY2026 / shared123.25
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month acquisition cash
ytd_acquisition_cash
9M FY2026 / shared20.16
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month partner distributions
ytd_partner_distributions
9M FY2026 / shared1.21
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month adjusted sbc
ytd_adjusted_sbc
9M FY2026 / shared151.82
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month cashflow sbc
ytd_cashflow_sbc
9M FY2026 / shared142.92
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month equity proceeds
ytd_equity_proceeds
9M FY2026 / shared424.31
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month exol cash
ytd_exol_cash
9M FY2026 / shared73.20
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month investment gain
ytd_investment_gain
9M FY2026 / shared21.04
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Nine-month company FCF
ytd_fcf
9M FY2026 / shared242.83
USD_millions
derived: Combined PP&E and capitalized software, not PP&E alone. Formula: subtract(ytd_cfo, ytd_capex).
Nine-month FCF excluding deferred funding
ytd_cash_ex_deferred
9M FY2026 / shared-125.95
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing measure, not company adjusted FCF. Formula: subtract(ytd_fcf, ytd_deferred_funding).
Nine-month strategic, M&A and partner cash
ytd_capital_uses
9M FY2026 / shared144.61
USD_millions
derived: Exol contributions are already within strategic investments. Formula: sum(ytd_strategic_investments, ytd_acquisition_cash, ytd_partner_distributions).
Nine-month cash after strategic allocations
ytd_cash_after_investments
9M FY2026 / shared98.22
USD_millions
derived: Before equity issuance, FX and restricted-cash movements. Formula: subtract(ytd_fcf, ytd_capital_uses).
q3 cfo
q3_cfo
2026Q3 / shared-147.30
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q3 capex
q3_capex
2026Q3 / shared17.33
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q3 deferred funding
q3_deferred_funding
2026Q3 / shared-123.83
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
cash
cash
2026Q3 / shared1,746.45
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
restricted cash
restricted_cash
2026Q3 / shared27.13
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
backlog
backlog
2026Q3 / shared22,500.00
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
deferred revenue
deferred_revenue
2026Q3 / shared1,736.56
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
unbilled receivables
unbilled_receivables
2026Q3 / shared459.84
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
exol investment
exol_investment
2026Q3 / shared140.47
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
exol future commitment
exol_future_commitment
2026Q3 / shared1,487.90
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
exol maximum exposure
exol_maximum_exposure
2026Q3 / shared1,491.34
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
tra expected payments
tra_expected_payments
2026Q3 / shared487.00
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
component program charge
component_program_charge
2026Q3 / shared34.30
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q3 consolidated net income
q3_consolidated_net_income
2026Q3 / shared55.00
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
q3 common income
q3_common_income
2026Q3 / shared11.67
USD_millions
reported: Consolidated amount except common-holder income; program charge was recorded in Q2, not a new Q3 expense. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Q3 company FCF
q3_fcf
2026Q3 / shared-164.63
USD_millions
derived: Negative despite positive quarter earnings. Formula: subtract(q3_cfo, q3_capex).
RPO expected in next 12 months
backlog_near_share
June 2026 / shared15.0%
ratio
management guidance: Company expectation from June 27; not an additional order. Primary source · 2026-08-05
RPO conversion reference for next 12 months
backlog_next12
June 2026 / shared3,375.00
USD_millions
derived: Subset of total RPO; does not guarantee billed cash or calendar-year sales. Formula: multiply(backlog, backlog_near_share).
Largest customer Q3 revenue share
largest_customer_share
2026Q3 / shared90.5%
ratio
reported: Customer A including affiliates/subsidiaries/consolidated entities; filing reports concentration without naming that row. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 Q4 revenue outlook low
q4_revenue_guide_low
2026Q4 / shared760.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 Q4 revenue outlook high
q4_revenue_guide_high
2026Q4 / shared780.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2026 Q4 revenue outlook endpoint sum
q4_revenue_guide_sum
2026Q4 / shared1,540.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q4_revenue_guide_low, q4_revenue_guide_high).
FY2026 Q4 revenue outlook midpoint
q4_revenue_guide
2026Q4 / shared770.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q4_revenue_guide_sum, two).
FY2026 Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook low
q4_ebitda_guide_low
2026Q4 / shared100.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook high
q4_ebitda_guide_high
2026Q4 / shared105.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook endpoint sum
q4_ebitda_guide_sum
2026Q4 / shared205.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q4_ebitda_guide_low, q4_ebitda_guide_high).
FY2026 Q4 adjusted EBITDA outlook midpoint
q4_ebitda_guide
2026Q4 / shared102.50
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q4_ebitda_guide_sum, two).
Q4 delivery / company midpoint
downside_delivery
2026Q4 / downside94.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 adjusted EBITDA / midpoint
downside_profit
2026Q4 / downside78.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 revenue
downside_q4_target
2026Q4 / downside723.80
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times delivery sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_revenue_guide, downside_delivery).
Q4 software maintenance sales
downside_q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / downside13.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk recurring service allocation.
Q4 operations service sales
downside_q4_operations
2026Q4 / downside39.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk service allocation.
Q4 recurring service sales
downside_q4_services
2026Q4 / downside52.50
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive service streams. Formula: sum(downside_q4_maintenance, downside_q4_operations).
Q4 Systems revenue
downside_q4_systems
2026Q4 / downside671.30
USD_millions
derived: Systems inside consolidated guidance. Formula: subtract(downside_q4_target, downside_q4_services).
FY2026 systems revenue
downside_fy26_systems
FY2026 / downside2,567.04
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, downside_q4_systems).
FY2027 systems growth multiplier
downside_systems_growth
FY2027 / downside112.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 systems revenue
downside_fy27_systems
FY2027 / downside2,875.08
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_systems, downside_systems_growth).
FY2026 maintenance revenue
downside_fy26_maintenance
FY2026 / downside50.07
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, downside_q4_maintenance).
FY2027 maintenance growth multiplier
downside_maintenance_growth
FY2027 / downside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 maintenance revenue
downside_fy27_maintenance
FY2027 / downside65.10
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_maintenance, downside_maintenance_growth).
FY2026 operations revenue
downside_fy26_operations
FY2026 / downside133.99
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, downside_q4_operations).
FY2027 operations growth multiplier
downside_operations_growth
FY2027 / downside120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 operations revenue
downside_fy27_operations
FY2027 / downside160.79
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(downside_fy26_operations, downside_operations_growth).
Annual revenue quarter share
downside_2026q4_weight
2026Q4 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
downside_2026q4_systems
2026Q4 / downside671.30
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_q4_systems, downside_2026q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
downside_2026q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / downside13.50
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_q4_maintenance, downside_2026q4_weight).
operations revenue
downside_2026q4_operations
2026Q4 / downside39.00
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_q4_operations, downside_2026q4_weight).
Revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside723.80
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_systems, downside_2026q4_maintenance, downside_2026q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q4_systems_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
downside_2026q4_systems_gross
2026Q4 / downside140.97
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_systems, downside_2026q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
downside_2026q4_maintenance_gross
2026Q4 / downside9.45
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_maintenance, downside_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
downside_2026q4_operations_gross_margin
2026Q4 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
downside_2026q4_operations_gross
2026Q4 / downside3.12
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_operations, downside_2026q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside153.54
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_systems_gross, downside_2026q4_maintenance_gross, downside_2026q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
downside_2026q4_cogs_noncash
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside79.95
USD_millions
derived: Company Q4 guide midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_ebitda_guide, downside_profit).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
downside_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2026q4_gaap_exclusions
2026Q4 / downside68.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside11.95
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
downside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / downside87.95
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
downside_2026q4_deferred_funding
2026Q4 / downside-100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
downside_2026q4_cash_with_advances
2026Q4 / downside-12.05
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
downside_2026q4_other_working_capital
2026Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
downside_2026q4_program_cash
2026Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside57.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_other_working_capital, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside-69.05
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_with_advances, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside-94.05
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
downside_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred
2026Q4 / downside5.95
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
downside_2026q4_exol_contribution
2026Q4 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
downside_2026q4_other_investment
2026Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
downside_2026q4_partner_distributions
2026Q4 / downside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
downside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / downside56.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_exol_contribution, downside_2026q4_other_investment, downside_2026q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
downside_2026q4_cash_after_investments
2026Q4 / downside-150.05
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
downside_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / downside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
downside_2027q1_systems
2027Q1 / downside632.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_systems, downside_2027q1_weight).
maintenance revenue
downside_2027q1_maintenance
2027Q1 / downside14.32
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_maintenance, downside_2027q1_weight).
operations revenue
downside_2027q1_operations
2027Q1 / downside35.37
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_operations, downside_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside682.21
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_systems, downside_2027q1_maintenance, downside_2027q1_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q1_systems_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
downside_2027q1_systems_gross
2027Q1 / downside132.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_systems, downside_2027q1_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
downside_2027q1_maintenance_gross
2027Q1 / downside10.02
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_maintenance, downside_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q1_operations_gross_margin
2027Q1 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
downside_2027q1_operations_gross
2027Q1 / downside2.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_operations, downside_2027q1_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside145.68
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_systems_gross, downside_2027q1_maintenance_gross, downside_2027q1_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
downside_2027q1_cogs_noncash
2027Q1 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
downside_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / downside167.68
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / downside112.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside55.68
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_gross, downside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
downside_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q1_gaap_exclusions
2027Q1 / downside73.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-17.32
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
downside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / downside63.68
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
downside_2027q1_deferred_funding
2027Q1 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
downside_2027q1_cash_with_advances
2027Q1 / downside163.68
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q1_other_working_capital
2027Q1 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
downside_2027q1_program_cash
2027Q1 / downside8.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside73.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_working_capital, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside90.68
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_with_advances, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside58.68
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
downside_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q1 / downside-41.32
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
downside_2027q1_exol_contribution
2027Q1 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
downside_2027q1_other_investment
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
downside_2027q1_partner_distributions
2027Q1 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
downside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / downside62.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_exol_contribution, downside_2027q1_other_investment, downside_2027q1_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
downside_2027q1_cash_after_investments
2027Q1 / downside-3.32
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
downside_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / downside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
downside_2027q2_systems
2027Q2 / downside690.02
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_systems, downside_2027q2_weight).
maintenance revenue
downside_2027q2_maintenance
2027Q2 / downside15.62
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_maintenance, downside_2027q2_weight).
operations revenue
downside_2027q2_operations
2027Q2 / downside38.59
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_operations, downside_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside744.23
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_systems, downside_2027q2_maintenance, downside_2027q2_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_systems_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
downside_2027q2_systems_gross
2027Q2 / downside144.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_systems, downside_2027q2_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
downside_2027q2_maintenance_gross
2027Q2 / downside10.94
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_maintenance, downside_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q2_operations_gross_margin
2027Q2 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
downside_2027q2_operations_gross
2027Q2 / downside3.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_operations, downside_2027q2_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside158.93
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_systems_gross, downside_2027q2_maintenance_gross, downside_2027q2_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
downside_2027q2_cogs_noncash
2027Q2 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
downside_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / downside182.93
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / downside115.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside67.93
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_gross, downside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
downside_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q2_gaap_exclusions
2027Q2 / downside78.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-10.07
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
downside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / downside75.93
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
downside_2027q2_deferred_funding
2027Q2 / downside-80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
downside_2027q2_cash_with_advances
2027Q2 / downside-4.07
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q2_other_working_capital
2027Q2 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
downside_2027q2_program_cash
2027Q2 / downside7.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside72.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_other_working_capital, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-76.07
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_with_advances, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside34.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-110.07
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
downside_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q2 / downside-30.07
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
downside_2027q2_exol_contribution
2027Q2 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
downside_2027q2_other_investment
2027Q2 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
downside_2027q2_partner_distributions
2027Q2 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
downside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / downside67.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_exol_contribution, downside_2027q2_other_investment, downside_2027q2_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
downside_2027q2_cash_after_investments
2027Q2 / downside-177.07
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
downside_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / downside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
downside_2027q3_systems
2027Q3 / downside747.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_systems, downside_2027q3_weight).
maintenance revenue
downside_2027q3_maintenance
2027Q3 / downside16.93
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_maintenance, downside_2027q3_weight).
operations revenue
downside_2027q3_operations
2027Q3 / downside41.80
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_operations, downside_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside806.25
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_systems, downside_2027q3_maintenance, downside_2027q3_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_systems_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
downside_2027q3_systems_gross
2027Q3 / downside156.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_systems, downside_2027q3_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
downside_2027q3_maintenance_gross
2027Q3 / downside11.85
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_maintenance, downside_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q3_operations_gross_margin
2027Q3 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
downside_2027q3_operations_gross
2027Q3 / downside3.34
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_operations, downside_2027q3_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside172.17
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_systems_gross, downside_2027q3_maintenance_gross, downside_2027q3_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
downside_2027q3_cogs_noncash
2027Q3 / downside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
downside_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / downside198.17
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / downside118.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside80.17
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_gross, downside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
downside_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q3_gaap_exclusions
2027Q3 / downside83.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-2.83
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
downside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / downside88.17
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
downside_2027q3_deferred_funding
2027Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
downside_2027q3_cash_with_advances
2027Q3 / downside138.17
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q3_other_working_capital
2027Q3 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
downside_2027q3_program_cash
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside55.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_other_working_capital, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside83.17
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_with_advances, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside47.17
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
downside_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q3 / downside-2.83
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
downside_2027q3_exol_contribution
2027Q3 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
downside_2027q3_other_investment
2027Q3 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
downside_2027q3_partner_distributions
2027Q3 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
downside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / downside72.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_exol_contribution, downside_2027q3_other_investment, downside_2027q3_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
downside_2027q3_cash_after_investments
2027Q3 / downside-24.83
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
downside_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / downside28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
downside_2027q4_systems
2027Q4 / downside805.02
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_systems, downside_2027q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
downside_2027q4_maintenance
2027Q4 / downside18.23
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_maintenance, downside_2027q4_weight).
operations revenue
downside_2027q4_operations
2027Q4 / downside45.02
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(downside_fy27_operations, downside_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside868.27
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_systems, downside_2027q4_maintenance, downside_2027q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_systems_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside21.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
downside_2027q4_systems_gross
2027Q4 / downside169.05
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_systems, downside_2027q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside70.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
downside_2027q4_maintenance_gross
2027Q4 / downside12.76
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_maintenance, downside_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
downside_2027q4_operations_gross_margin
2027Q4 / downside8.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
downside_2027q4_operations_gross
2027Q4 / downside3.60
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_operations, downside_2027q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside185.42
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_systems_gross, downside_2027q4_maintenance_gross, downside_2027q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
downside_2027q4_cogs_noncash
2027Q4 / downside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
downside_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / downside213.42
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / downside121.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside92.42
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_gross, downside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
downside_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
downside_2027q4_gaap_exclusions
2027Q4 / downside88.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside4.42
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
downside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / downside100.42
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
downside_2027q4_deferred_funding
2027Q4 / downside-30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
downside_2027q4_cash_with_advances
2027Q4 / downside70.42
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, downside_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
downside_2027q4_other_working_capital
2027Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
downside_2027q4_program_cash
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside55.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_other_working_capital, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside15.42
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_with_advances, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-22.58
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
downside_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q4 / downside7.42
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
downside_2027q4_exol_contribution
2027Q4 / downside65.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
downside_2027q4_other_investment
2027Q4 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
downside_2027q4_partner_distributions
2027Q4 / downside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
downside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / downside77.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_exol_contribution, downside_2027q4_other_investment, downside_2027q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
downside_2027q4_cash_after_investments
2027Q4 / downside-99.58
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside2,751.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_systems
FY2026 / downside2,567.04
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, downside_2026q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_maintenance
FY2026 / downside50.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, downside_2026q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_operations
FY2026 / downside133.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, downside_2026q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside597.83
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / downside319.83
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside57.46
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside236.53
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside87.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside148.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_ex_deferred
FY2026 / downside-120.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_ex_deferred, downside_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_investments
FY2026 / downside-51.83
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_after_investments, downside_2026q4_cash_after_investments).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside3,100.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_systems
FY2027 / downside2,875.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_systems, downside_2027q2_systems, downside_2027q3_systems, downside_2027q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_maintenance
FY2027 / downside65.10
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_maintenance, downside_2027q2_maintenance, downside_2027q3_maintenance, downside_2027q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_operations
FY2027 / downside160.79
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operations, downside_2027q2_operations, downside_2027q3_operations, downside_2027q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside662.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
downside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / downside296.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-25.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside113.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside140.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-26.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_ex_deferred
FY2027 / downside-66.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred, downside_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred, downside_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred, downside_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_investments
FY2027 / downside-304.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_investments, downside_2027q2_cash_after_investments, downside_2027q3_cash_after_investments, downside_2027q4_cash_after_investments).
Q4 delivery / company midpoint
base_delivery
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 adjusted EBITDA / midpoint
base_profit
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 revenue
base_q4_target
2026Q4 / base770.00
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times delivery sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_revenue_guide, base_delivery).
Q4 software maintenance sales
base_q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk recurring service allocation.
Q4 operations service sales
base_q4_operations
2026Q4 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk service allocation.
Q4 recurring service sales
base_q4_services
2026Q4 / base56.00
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive service streams. Formula: sum(base_q4_maintenance, base_q4_operations).
Q4 Systems revenue
base_q4_systems
2026Q4 / base714.00
USD_millions
derived: Systems inside consolidated guidance. Formula: subtract(base_q4_target, base_q4_services).
FY2026 systems revenue
base_fy26_systems
FY2026 / base2,609.74
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, base_q4_systems).
FY2027 systems growth multiplier
base_systems_growth
FY2027 / base128.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 systems revenue
base_fy27_systems
FY2027 / base3,340.47
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_systems, base_systems_growth).
FY2026 maintenance revenue
base_fy26_maintenance
FY2026 / base50.57
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, base_q4_maintenance).
FY2027 maintenance growth multiplier
base_maintenance_growth
FY2027 / base150.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 maintenance revenue
base_fy27_maintenance
FY2027 / base75.86
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_maintenance, base_maintenance_growth).
FY2026 operations revenue
base_fy26_operations
FY2026 / base136.99
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, base_q4_operations).
FY2027 operations growth multiplier
base_operations_growth
FY2027 / base140.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 operations revenue
base_fy27_operations
FY2027 / base191.78
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(base_fy26_operations, base_operations_growth).
Annual revenue quarter share
base_2026q4_weight
2026Q4 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
base_2026q4_systems
2026Q4 / base714.00
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_q4_systems, base_2026q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
base_2026q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / base14.00
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_q4_maintenance, base_2026q4_weight).
operations revenue
base_2026q4_operations
2026Q4 / base42.00
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_q4_operations, base_2026q4_weight).
Revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base770.00
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_systems, base_2026q4_maintenance, base_2026q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
base_2026q4_systems_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
base_2026q4_systems_gross
2026Q4 / base178.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_systems, base_2026q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
base_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base73.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
base_2026q4_maintenance_gross
2026Q4 / base10.22
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_maintenance, base_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
base_2026q4_operations_gross_margin
2026Q4 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
base_2026q4_operations_gross
2026Q4 / base5.88
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_operations, base_2026q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base194.60
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_systems_gross, base_2026q4_maintenance_gross, base_2026q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
base_2026q4_cogs_noncash
2026Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / base102.50
USD_millions
derived: Company Q4 guide midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_ebitda_guide, base_profit).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
base_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2026q4_gaap_exclusions
2026Q4 / base68.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base34.50
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
base_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
base_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / base110.50
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
base_2026q4_deferred_funding
2026Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
base_2026q4_cash_with_advances
2026Q4 / base210.50
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_before_wc, base_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
base_2026q4_other_working_capital
2026Q4 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
base_2026q4_program_cash
2026Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base42.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_other_working_capital, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base168.50
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_with_advances, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base143.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
base_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred
2026Q4 / base43.50
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
base_2026q4_exol_contribution
2026Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
base_2026q4_other_investment
2026Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
base_2026q4_partner_distributions
2026Q4 / base1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
base_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / base51.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_exol_contribution, base_2026q4_other_investment, base_2026q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
base_2026q4_cash_after_investments
2026Q4 / base92.50
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
base_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / base22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
base_2027q1_systems
2027Q1 / base734.90
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_systems, base_2027q1_weight).
maintenance revenue
base_2027q1_maintenance
2027Q1 / base16.69
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_maintenance, base_2027q1_weight).
operations revenue
base_2027q1_operations
2027Q1 / base42.19
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_operations, base_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base793.78
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_systems, base_2027q1_maintenance, base_2027q1_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
base_2027q1_systems_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
base_2027q1_systems_gross
2027Q1 / base183.73
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_systems, base_2027q1_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
base_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base73.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
base_2027q1_maintenance_gross
2027Q1 / base12.18
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_maintenance, base_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
base_2027q1_operations_gross_margin
2027Q1 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
base_2027q1_operations_gross
2027Q1 / base5.91
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_operations, base_2027q1_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base201.82
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_systems_gross, base_2027q1_maintenance_gross, base_2027q1_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
base_2027q1_cogs_noncash
2027Q1 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
base_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / base223.82
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
base_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / base110.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / base113.82
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_gross, base_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
base_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q1_gaap_exclusions
2027Q1 / base73.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base40.82
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
base_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
base_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / base121.82
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
base_2027q1_deferred_funding
2027Q1 / base120.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
base_2027q1_cash_with_advances
2027Q1 / base241.82
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_before_wc, base_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
base_2027q1_other_working_capital
2027Q1 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
base_2027q1_program_cash
2027Q1 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_working_capital, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base191.82
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_with_advances, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base159.82
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
base_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q1 / base39.82
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
base_2027q1_exol_contribution
2027Q1 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
base_2027q1_other_investment
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
base_2027q1_partner_distributions
2027Q1 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
base_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / base57.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_exol_contribution, base_2027q1_other_investment, base_2027q1_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
base_2027q1_cash_after_investments
2027Q1 / base102.82
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
base_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / base24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
base_2027q2_systems
2027Q2 / base801.71
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_systems, base_2027q2_weight).
maintenance revenue
base_2027q2_maintenance
2027Q2 / base18.21
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_maintenance, base_2027q2_weight).
operations revenue
base_2027q2_operations
2027Q2 / base46.03
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_operations, base_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base865.95
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_systems, base_2027q2_maintenance, base_2027q2_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_systems_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
base_2027q2_systems_gross
2027Q2 / base200.43
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_systems, base_2027q2_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base73.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
base_2027q2_maintenance_gross
2027Q2 / base13.29
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_maintenance, base_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
base_2027q2_operations_gross_margin
2027Q2 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
base_2027q2_operations_gross
2027Q2 / base6.44
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_operations, base_2027q2_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base220.16
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_systems_gross, base_2027q2_maintenance_gross, base_2027q2_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
base_2027q2_cogs_noncash
2027Q2 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
base_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / base244.16
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
base_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / base113.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / base131.16
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_gross, base_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
base_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q2_gaap_exclusions
2027Q2 / base78.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base53.16
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
base_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
base_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / base139.16
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
base_2027q2_deferred_funding
2027Q2 / base-100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
base_2027q2_cash_with_advances
2027Q2 / base39.16
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_before_wc, base_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
base_2027q2_other_working_capital
2027Q2 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
base_2027q2_program_cash
2027Q2 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_other_working_capital, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base-5.84
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_with_advances, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base34.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base-39.84
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
base_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q2 / base60.16
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
base_2027q2_exol_contribution
2027Q2 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
base_2027q2_other_investment
2027Q2 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
base_2027q2_partner_distributions
2027Q2 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
base_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / base62.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_exol_contribution, base_2027q2_other_investment, base_2027q2_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
base_2027q2_cash_after_investments
2027Q2 / base-101.84
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
base_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / base26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
base_2027q3_systems
2027Q3 / base868.52
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_systems, base_2027q3_weight).
maintenance revenue
base_2027q3_maintenance
2027Q3 / base19.72
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_maintenance, base_2027q3_weight).
operations revenue
base_2027q3_operations
2027Q3 / base49.86
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_operations, base_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base938.11
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_systems, base_2027q3_maintenance, base_2027q3_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_systems_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
base_2027q3_systems_gross
2027Q3 / base217.13
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_systems, base_2027q3_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base73.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
base_2027q3_maintenance_gross
2027Q3 / base14.40
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_maintenance, base_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
base_2027q3_operations_gross_margin
2027Q3 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
base_2027q3_operations_gross
2027Q3 / base6.98
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_operations, base_2027q3_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base238.51
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_systems_gross, base_2027q3_maintenance_gross, base_2027q3_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
base_2027q3_cogs_noncash
2027Q3 / base26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
base_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / base264.51
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
base_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / base116.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / base148.51
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_gross, base_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
base_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q3_gaap_exclusions
2027Q3 / base83.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base65.51
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
base_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
base_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / base156.51
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
base_2027q3_deferred_funding
2027Q3 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
base_2027q3_cash_with_advances
2027Q3 / base306.51
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_before_wc, base_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
base_2027q3_other_working_capital
2027Q3 / base45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
base_2027q3_program_cash
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base50.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_other_working_capital, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base256.51
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_with_advances, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base220.51
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
base_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q3 / base70.51
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
base_2027q3_exol_contribution
2027Q3 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
base_2027q3_other_investment
2027Q3 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
base_2027q3_partner_distributions
2027Q3 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
base_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / base67.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_exol_contribution, base_2027q3_other_investment, base_2027q3_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
base_2027q3_cash_after_investments
2027Q3 / base153.51
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
base_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / base28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
base_2027q4_systems
2027Q4 / base935.33
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_systems, base_2027q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
base_2027q4_maintenance
2027Q4 / base21.24
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_maintenance, base_2027q4_weight).
operations revenue
base_2027q4_operations
2027Q4 / base53.70
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(base_fy27_operations, base_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base1,010.27
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_systems, base_2027q4_maintenance, base_2027q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_systems_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
base_2027q4_systems_gross
2027Q4 / base233.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_systems, base_2027q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base73.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
base_2027q4_maintenance_gross
2027Q4 / base15.51
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_maintenance, base_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
base_2027q4_operations_gross_margin
2027Q4 / base14.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
base_2027q4_operations_gross
2027Q4 / base7.52
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_operations, base_2027q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base256.86
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_systems_gross, base_2027q4_maintenance_gross, base_2027q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
base_2027q4_cogs_noncash
2027Q4 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
base_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / base284.86
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
base_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / base119.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / base165.86
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_gross, base_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
base_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
base_2027q4_gaap_exclusions
2027Q4 / base88.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base77.86
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
base_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
base_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / base173.86
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
base_2027q4_deferred_funding
2027Q4 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
base_2027q4_cash_with_advances
2027Q4 / base223.86
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_before_wc, base_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
base_2027q4_other_working_capital
2027Q4 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
base_2027q4_program_cash
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base45.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_other_working_capital, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base178.86
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_with_advances, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base140.86
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
base_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q4 / base90.86
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
base_2027q4_exol_contribution
2027Q4 / base60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
base_2027q4_other_investment
2027Q4 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
base_2027q4_partner_distributions
2027Q4 / base2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
base_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / base72.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_exol_contribution, base_2027q4_other_investment, base_2027q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
base_2027q4_cash_after_investments
2027Q4 / base68.86
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base2,797.30
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_systems
FY2026 / base2,609.74
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, base_2026q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_maintenance
FY2026 / base50.57
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, base_2026q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_operations
FY2026 / base136.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, base_2026q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base638.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / base342.38
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_adjusted_ebitda, base_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base80.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base474.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base87.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base386.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_ex_deferred
FY2026 / base-82.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_ex_deferred, base_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_investments
FY2026 / base190.72
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_after_investments, base_2026q4_cash_after_investments).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base3,608.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_systems
FY2027 / base3,340.47
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_systems, base_2027q2_systems, base_2027q3_systems, base_2027q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_maintenance
FY2027 / base75.86
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_maintenance, base_2027q2_maintenance, base_2027q3_maintenance, base_2027q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_operations
FY2027 / base191.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operations, base_2027q2_operations, base_2027q3_operations, base_2027q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base917.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
base_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / base559.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, base_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base237.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base621.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base140.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base481.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_ex_deferred
FY2027 / base261.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred, base_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred, base_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred, base_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_investments
FY2027 / base223.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_investments, base_2027q2_cash_after_investments, base_2027q3_cash_after_investments, base_2027q4_cash_after_investments).
Q4 delivery / company midpoint
upside_delivery
2026Q4 / upside102.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 adjusted EBITDA / midpoint
upside_profit
2026Q4 / upside110.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk sensitivity.
Q4 revenue
upside_q4_target
2026Q4 / upside789.25
USD_millions
derived: Company midpoint times delivery sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_revenue_guide, upside_delivery).
Q4 software maintenance sales
upside_q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / upside14.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk recurring service allocation.
Q4 operations service sales
upside_q4_operations
2026Q4 / upside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk service allocation.
Q4 recurring service sales
upside_q4_services
2026Q4 / upside58.50
USD_millions
derived: Mutually exclusive service streams. Formula: sum(upside_q4_maintenance, upside_q4_operations).
Q4 Systems revenue
upside_q4_systems
2026Q4 / upside730.75
USD_millions
derived: Systems inside consolidated guidance. Formula: subtract(upside_q4_target, upside_q4_services).
FY2026 systems revenue
upside_fy26_systems
FY2026 / upside2,626.49
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, upside_q4_systems).
FY2027 systems growth multiplier
upside_systems_growth
FY2027 / upside138.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 systems revenue
upside_fy27_systems
FY2027 / upside3,624.56
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_systems, upside_systems_growth).
FY2026 maintenance revenue
upside_fy26_maintenance
FY2026 / upside51.07
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, upside_q4_maintenance).
FY2027 maintenance growth multiplier
upside_maintenance_growth
FY2027 / upside165.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 maintenance revenue
upside_fy27_maintenance
FY2027 / upside84.27
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_maintenance, upside_maintenance_growth).
FY2026 operations revenue
upside_fy26_operations
FY2026 / upside138.99
USD_millions
derived: Actual nine months plus Q4. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, upside_q4_operations).
FY2027 operations growth multiplier
upside_operations_growth
FY2027 / upside155.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk installed-base/deployment sensitivity, not a disclosed systems completion schedule.
FY2027 operations revenue
upside_fy27_operations
FY2027 / upside215.43
USD_millions
derived: No extra backlog or contingent Walmart systems added. Formula: multiply(upside_fy26_operations, upside_operations_growth).
Annual revenue quarter share
upside_2026q4_weight
2026Q4 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
upside_2026q4_systems
2026Q4 / upside730.75
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_q4_systems, upside_2026q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
upside_2026q4_maintenance
2026Q4 / upside14.50
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_q4_maintenance, upside_2026q4_weight).
operations revenue
upside_2026q4_operations
2026Q4 / upside44.00
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_q4_operations, upside_2026q4_weight).
Revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside789.25
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_systems, upside_2026q4_maintenance, upside_2026q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q4_systems_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
upside_2026q4_systems_gross
2026Q4 / upside197.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_systems, upside_2026q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
upside_2026q4_maintenance_gross
2026Q4 / upside11.02
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_maintenance, upside_2026q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
upside_2026q4_operations_gross_margin
2026Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
upside_2026q4_operations_gross
2026Q4 / upside7.92
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_operations, upside_2026q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside216.24
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_systems_gross, upside_2026q4_maintenance_gross, upside_2026q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
upside_2026q4_cogs_noncash
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside112.75
USD_millions
derived: Company Q4 guide midpoint times sensitivity. Formula: multiply(q4_ebitda_guide, upside_profit).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
upside_2026q4_cash_exclusions
2026Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2026q4_gaap_exclusions
2026Q4 / upside68.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside44.75
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
upside_2026q4_cash_interest
2026Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc
2026Q4 / upside120.75
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
upside_2026q4_deferred_funding
2026Q4 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
upside_2026q4_cash_with_advances
2026Q4 / upside300.75
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
upside_2026q4_other_working_capital
2026Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
upside_2026q4_program_cash
2026Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside31.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_other_working_capital, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside269.75
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_with_advances, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside244.75
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
upside_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred
2026Q4 / upside64.75
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
upside_2026q4_exol_contribution
2026Q4 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
upside_2026q4_other_investment
2026Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
upside_2026q4_partner_distributions
2026Q4 / upside1.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
upside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / upside51.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_exol_contribution, upside_2026q4_other_investment, upside_2026q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
upside_2026q4_cash_after_investments
2026Q4 / upside193.75
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
upside_2027q1_weight
2027Q1 / upside22.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
upside_2027q1_systems
2027Q1 / upside797.40
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_systems, upside_2027q1_weight).
maintenance revenue
upside_2027q1_maintenance
2027Q1 / upside18.54
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_maintenance, upside_2027q1_weight).
operations revenue
upside_2027q1_operations
2027Q1 / upside47.40
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_operations, upside_2027q1_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside863.34
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_systems, upside_2027q1_maintenance, upside_2027q1_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q1_systems_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
upside_2027q1_systems_gross
2027Q1 / upside215.30
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_systems, upside_2027q1_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
upside_2027q1_maintenance_gross
2027Q1 / upside14.09
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_maintenance, upside_2027q1_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q1_operations_gross_margin
2027Q1 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
upside_2027q1_operations_gross
2027Q1 / upside8.53
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_operations, upside_2027q1_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside237.92
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_systems_gross, upside_2027q1_maintenance_gross, upside_2027q1_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
upside_2027q1_cogs_noncash
2027Q1 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
upside_2027q1_cash_gross
2027Q1 / upside259.92
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex
2027Q1 / upside113.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside146.92
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_gross, upside_2027q1_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
upside_2027q1_cash_exclusions
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q1_gaap_exclusions
2027Q1 / upside73.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside73.92
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
upside_2027q1_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc
2027Q1 / upside154.92
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
upside_2027q1_deferred_funding
2027Q1 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
upside_2027q1_cash_with_advances
2027Q1 / upside334.92
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q1_other_working_capital
2027Q1 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
upside_2027q1_program_cash
2027Q1 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside38.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_working_capital, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside296.92
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_with_advances, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside32.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside264.92
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
upside_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q1 / upside84.92
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
upside_2027q1_exol_contribution
2027Q1 / upside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
upside_2027q1_other_investment
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
upside_2027q1_partner_distributions
2027Q1 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
upside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / upside57.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_exol_contribution, upside_2027q1_other_investment, upside_2027q1_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
upside_2027q1_cash_after_investments
2027Q1 / upside207.92
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
upside_2027q2_weight
2027Q2 / upside24.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
upside_2027q2_systems
2027Q2 / upside869.89
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_systems, upside_2027q2_weight).
maintenance revenue
upside_2027q2_maintenance
2027Q2 / upside20.23
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_maintenance, upside_2027q2_weight).
operations revenue
upside_2027q2_operations
2027Q2 / upside51.70
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_operations, upside_2027q2_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside941.82
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_systems, upside_2027q2_maintenance, upside_2027q2_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_systems_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
upside_2027q2_systems_gross
2027Q2 / upside234.87
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_systems, upside_2027q2_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
upside_2027q2_maintenance_gross
2027Q2 / upside15.37
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_maintenance, upside_2027q2_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q2_operations_gross_margin
2027Q2 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
upside_2027q2_operations_gross
2027Q2 / upside9.31
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_operations, upside_2027q2_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside259.55
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_systems_gross, upside_2027q2_maintenance_gross, upside_2027q2_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
upside_2027q2_cogs_noncash
2027Q2 / upside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
upside_2027q2_cash_gross
2027Q2 / upside283.55
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex
2027Q2 / upside116.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside167.55
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_gross, upside_2027q2_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
upside_2027q2_cash_exclusions
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q2_gaap_exclusions
2027Q2 / upside78.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside89.55
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
upside_2027q2_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc
2027Q2 / upside175.55
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
upside_2027q2_deferred_funding
2027Q2 / upside-50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
upside_2027q2_cash_with_advances
2027Q2 / upside125.55
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q2_other_working_capital
2027Q2 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
upside_2027q2_program_cash
2027Q2 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside38.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_other_working_capital, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside87.55
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_with_advances, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside34.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside53.55
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
upside_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q2 / upside103.55
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
upside_2027q2_exol_contribution
2027Q2 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
upside_2027q2_other_investment
2027Q2 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
upside_2027q2_partner_distributions
2027Q2 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
upside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / upside62.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_exol_contribution, upside_2027q2_other_investment, upside_2027q2_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
upside_2027q2_cash_after_investments
2027Q2 / upside-8.45
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
upside_2027q3_weight
2027Q3 / upside26.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
upside_2027q3_systems
2027Q3 / upside942.38
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_systems, upside_2027q3_weight).
maintenance revenue
upside_2027q3_maintenance
2027Q3 / upside21.91
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_maintenance, upside_2027q3_weight).
operations revenue
upside_2027q3_operations
2027Q3 / upside56.01
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_operations, upside_2027q3_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside1,020.31
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_systems, upside_2027q3_maintenance, upside_2027q3_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_systems_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
upside_2027q3_systems_gross
2027Q3 / upside254.44
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_systems, upside_2027q3_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
upside_2027q3_maintenance_gross
2027Q3 / upside16.65
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_maintenance, upside_2027q3_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q3_operations_gross_margin
2027Q3 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
upside_2027q3_operations_gross
2027Q3 / upside10.08
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_operations, upside_2027q3_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside281.18
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_systems_gross, upside_2027q3_maintenance_gross, upside_2027q3_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
upside_2027q3_cogs_noncash
2027Q3 / upside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
upside_2027q3_cash_gross
2027Q3 / upside307.18
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex
2027Q3 / upside119.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside188.18
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_gross, upside_2027q3_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside14.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
upside_2027q3_cash_exclusions
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q3_gaap_exclusions
2027Q3 / upside83.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside105.18
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
upside_2027q3_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc
2027Q3 / upside196.18
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
upside_2027q3_deferred_funding
2027Q3 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
upside_2027q3_cash_with_advances
2027Q3 / upside376.18
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q3_other_working_capital
2027Q3 / upside35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
upside_2027q3_program_cash
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_other_working_capital, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside336.18
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_with_advances, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside36.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside300.18
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
upside_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q3 / upside120.18
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
upside_2027q3_exol_contribution
2027Q3 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
upside_2027q3_other_investment
2027Q3 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
upside_2027q3_partner_distributions
2027Q3 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
upside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / upside67.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_exol_contribution, upside_2027q3_other_investment, upside_2027q3_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
upside_2027q3_cash_after_investments
2027Q3 / upside233.18
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Annual revenue quarter share
upside_2027q4_weight
2027Q4 / upside28.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems revenue
upside_2027q4_systems
2027Q4 / upside1,014.88
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_systems, upside_2027q4_weight).
maintenance revenue
upside_2027q4_maintenance
2027Q4 / upside23.60
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_maintenance, upside_2027q4_weight).
operations revenue
upside_2027q4_operations
2027Q4 / upside60.32
USD_millions
derived: Q4 allocation or annual growth with explicit delivery phasing. Formula: multiply(upside_fy27_operations, upside_2027q4_weight).
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside1,098.79
USD_millions
derived: Hardware/system sales and recurring service revenue counted once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_systems, upside_2027q4_maintenance, upside_2027q4_operations).
systems GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_systems_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
systems gross profit
upside_2027q4_systems_gross
2027Q4 / upside274.02
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_systems, upside_2027q4_systems_gross_margin).
maintenance GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside76.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
maintenance gross profit
upside_2027q4_maintenance_gross
2027Q4 / upside17.93
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_maintenance, upside_2027q4_maintenance_gross_margin).
operations GAAP gross margin
upside_2027q4_operations_gross_margin
2027Q4 / upside18.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
operations gross profit
upside_2027q4_operations_gross
2027Q4 / upside10.86
USD_millions
derived: Includes ordinary warranty, SBC and depreciation in cost of revenue. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_operations, upside_2027q4_operations_gross_margin).
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside302.81
USD_millions
derived: Streams have different delivery and service economics. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_systems_gross, upside_2027q4_maintenance_gross, upside_2027q4_operations_gross).
SBC/DA included in cost of revenue
upside_2027q4_cogs_noncash
2027Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk noncash allocation inside total SBC/DA; not an additional expense added twice.
Gross profit before cost-of-sales noncash charges
upside_2027q4_cash_gross
2027Q4 / upside330.81
USD_millions
derived: Consistent adjusted cost basis. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_cogs_noncash).
Adjusted operating cash expenses
upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex
2027Q4 / upside122.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside208.81
USD_millions
derived: Desk recurring operating cost structure, not management FY2027 guidance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_gross, upside_2027q4_adjusted_opex).
Total noncash equity compensation allowance
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash remediation/integration costs
upside_2027q4_cash_exclusions
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Costs excluded from adjusted EBITDA
upside_2027q4_gaap_exclusions
2027Q4 / upside88.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes cost-of-revenue noncash allocation within totals once. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_cash_exclusions).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside120.81
USD_millions
derived: Does not project fair-value gains, equity-method losses or common-holder earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_exclusions).
Cash investment income
upside_2027q4_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash earnings before customer funding
upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc
2027Q4 / upside216.81
USD_millions
derived: Uses consistent forecast noncash costs; no sale of investments or equity issue proceeds. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_cash_interest).
Net deferred-revenue cash funding
upside_2027q4_deferred_funding
2027Q4 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk customer billing/collection timing relative to services. Negative means revenue recognition consumes prior advances; not additional revenue.
Cash earnings plus net advance funding
upside_2027q4_cash_with_advances
2027Q4 / upside296.81
USD_millions
derived: Other receivable, inventory and contract-cost movements modeled below. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_before_wc, upside_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Other net working-capital cash use
upside_2027q4_other_working_capital
2027Q4 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Existing component-program cash payments
upside_2027q4_program_cash
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Provisional cash timing for costs already recognized; not a claim of the remaining June reserve or another new expense.
Other operating timing, tax and replacement cash
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside35.00
USD_millions
derived: Existing reserve cash is not charged to operating income again. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_other_working_capital, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_program_cash).
Operating cash flow
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside261.81
USD_millions
derived: Deferred-revenue funding is in CFO; Exol capital is not. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_with_advances, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Combined PP&E and software cash
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside38.00
USD_millions
assumption: Company combines PP&E and internal-use software in the cash statement. No invented split.
Company-scope FCF
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside223.81
USD_millions
derived: Includes software cash once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
FCF excluding net deferred funding
upside_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred
2027Q4 / upside143.81
USD_millions
derived: Analytical timing sensitivity, not cash available to distribute or a reported company metric. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_deferred_funding).
Exol capital contribution
upside_2027q4_exol_contribution
2027Q4 / upside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-call timing within multi-year commitments; not revenue or GAAP operating expense.
Other strategic investment cash
upside_2027q4_other_investment
2027Q4 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Partner tax distributions
upside_2027q4_partner_distributions
2027Q4 / upside2.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Strategic investment and partner cash
upside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / upside72.00
USD_millions
derived: No undisclosed ARMS purchase price invented. Further M&A can consume additional cash. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_exol_contribution, upside_2027q4_other_investment, upside_2027q4_partner_distributions).
Cash after strategic allocations
upside_2027q4_cash_after_investments
2027Q4 / upside151.81
USD_millions
derived: Excludes unquantified acquisition consideration, equity financing, TRA settlements and restricted cash changes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside2,816.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_systems
FY2026 / upside2,626.49
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_systems, upside_2026q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_maintenance
FY2026 / upside51.07
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_maintenance, upside_2026q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_operations
FY2026 / upside138.99
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operations, upside_2026q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside660.53
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2026_adjusted_ebitda
FY2026 / upside352.63
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside90.26
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside575.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside87.75
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside487.58
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_ex_deferred
FY2026 / upside-61.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_ex_deferred, upside_2026q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_investments
FY2026 / upside291.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cash_after_investments, upside_2026q4_cash_after_investments).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside3,924.26
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Systems revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_systems
FY2027 / upside3,624.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_systems, upside_2027q2_systems, upside_2027q3_systems, upside_2027q4_systems).
Software maintenance/support revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_maintenance
FY2027 / upside84.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_maintenance, upside_2027q2_maintenance, upside_2027q3_maintenance, upside_2027q4_maintenance).
Operation Services revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_operations
FY2027 / upside215.43
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operations, upside_2027q2_operations, upside_2027q3_operations, upside_2027q4_operations).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside1,081.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
upside_fy2027_adjusted_ebitda
FY2027 / upside711.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adjusted_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adjusted_ebitda).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside389.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Operating cash flow ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside982.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Combined PP&E and software cash ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside140.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less PP&E and software ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside842.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
FCF excluding net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_ex_deferred
FY2027 / upside452.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_ex_deferred, upside_2027q2_cash_ex_deferred, upside_2027q3_cash_ex_deferred, upside_2027q4_cash_ex_deferred).
Cash after strategic investments and distributions ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_investments
FY2027 / upside584.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_investments, upside_2027q2_cash_after_investments, upside_2027q3_cash_after_investments, upside_2027q4_cash_after_investments).

Model boundaries

Warehouse growth with customer advances and venture commitments

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

How much cash comes from deployment economics after separating customer funding and Exol capital?

Nine-month sales were $2,027.303M: Systems $1,895.740M, maintenance $36.574M and operation services $94.989M. GAAP operating income was $45.512M versus $239.885M adjusted EBITDA. CFO of $305.584M less combined PP&E/software of $62.753M produced $242.831M FCF; removing $368.777M net advance funding leaves negative $125.946M as a timing diagnostic. Q3 alone used $147.297M CFO and $17.333M capital cash. Strategic investments consumed $123.247M, including $73.2M Exol funding. June cash was $1,746.446M, with $27.132M restricted separately. RPO was approximately $22.5B, with 15% expected over 12 months; the contingent 400-store Walmart promise is additional only if conditions are met. The largest customer represented 90.5% of Q3 sales. Exol future funding commitments were $1,487.9M, not immediate cash due. A $34.3M component-program charge was recorded in Q2. Q3 consolidated net income of $55M included only $11.673M attributable to common holders.

The competing explanation

A large order book can coexist with dependence on a few customers, long installation schedules and heavy venture funding. Advances create cash before delivery but can reverse abruptly. Positive consolidated earnings and adjusted EBITDA do not establish the cash or earnings attributable to public Class A shareholders.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First deployment/service/cash model with Exol funding, ownership limits, updated historical combined investment cash and component-program timing.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, heavy volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-3.0+0.1+3.052%
5 sessions-6.1+0.0+6.750%
10 sessions-6.7+0.1+12.051%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-11-03 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-08-05 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  5. [5] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  8. [8] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  9. [9] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  10. [10] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  12. [12] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  13. [13] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  14. [14] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  15. [15] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  16. [16] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  17. [17] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  18. [18] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  19. [19] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  20. [20] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  21. [21] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  22. [22] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  23. [23] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  24. [24] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  25. [25] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  26. [26] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  27. [27] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  30. [30] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  31. [31] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  32. [32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  33. [33] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  34. [34] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  35. [35] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  36. [36] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001837240-24-000232, 10-K filed 2024-12-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  37. [37] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001837240-25-000044, 10-Q filed 2025-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  38. [38] reported: Reported comparative Q2 combined PP&E and software cash; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000023/q2268-k_ex991.htm
  39. [39] reported: Reported combined PP&E and internal-use software cash purchases; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm
  40. [40] derived: Derived FY2025 Q4 combined PP&E/software: November 24 2025 annual 79.030M less reviewed August 5 2026 comparative nine-month 42.784M; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm
  41. [41] derived: Combined PP&E and internal-use software cash; Q1 FY26 = nine-month 62.753M minus Q2 43.368M minus Q3 17.333M; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm
  42. [42] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2025-11-24] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2024-12-04], accession 0001837240-25-000278, 10-K filed 2025-11-24; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  43. [43] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2026-02-04] ; PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2025-02-05], accession 0001837240-26-000009, 10-Q filed 2026-02-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  44. [44] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2026-05-06] ; Reported comparative Q2 combined PP&E and software cash [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000023/q2268-k_ex991.htm; filed 2026-05-06], accession 0001837240-26-000024, 10-Q filed 2026-05-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  45. [45] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2026-08-05] ; Reported combined PP&E and internal-use software cash purchases [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm; filed 2026-08-05], accession 0001837240-26-000043, 10-Q filed 2026-08-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T20:45:35+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json
  46. [46] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2025-11-24] ; Derived FY2025 Q4 combined PP&E/software: November 24 2025 annual 79.030M less reviewed August 5 2026 comparative nine-month 42.784M [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm; filed 2026-08-05]; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm
  47. [47] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2026-02-04] ; Combined PP&E and internal-use software cash; Q1 FY26 = nine-month 62.753M minus Q2 43.368M minus Q3 17.333M [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm; filed 2026-08-05]; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm
  48. [48] derived: CFO - capex; NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities [https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001837240.json; filed 2026-05-06] ; Reported combined PP&E and internal-use software cash purchases [https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm; filed 2026-08-05]; retrieved 2026-09-19T18:30:00+00:00 from https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1837240/000183724026000042/q3268-k_ex991.htm

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T20:45:35.400011+00:00 · authored 17f992ce7d81 · generated b1eb89d75544 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard