ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · SOFTWARE & INTERNET

$SNAP

Snap Inc · NYSE · SIC 7370 · CIK 1564408 · revision 5 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Snap earns advertising revenue on Snapchat and other revenue from paid products and services. Specs Inc. remains a wholly owned subsidiary developing augmented reality glasses and related computing services. Advertising yield, subscription adoption and infrastructure spending determine operating economics; equity compensation and repurchases determine how much cash remains for shareholders.

Three drivers

  1. Advertising demand and other-product monetization
  2. Infrastructure, partner costs and consolidated Specs investment
  3. Equity compensation, buybacks and debt service

Thesis

Our view

Other-product growth improves diversification, but a stronger EBITDA figure does not by itself establish GAAP profitability or cash retained after dilution management. The model tests revenue against hosting and operating budgets before subtracting compensation, cash costs and optional repurchases.

What changes it

Compare advertising growth, other revenue and infrastructure cost with the outlook; require actual shipped-product economics before giving SPECS a distinct revenue forecast.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2024Q3
2024-09-30
2024Q4
2024-12-31
2025Q1
2025-03-31
2025Q2
2025-06-30
2025Q3
2025-09-30
2025Q4
2025-12-31
2026Q1
2026-03-31
2026Q2
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)1,372.611,557.3†21,363.231,344.941,506.811,716.5†21,528.831,599.04
Gross profit ($M)
Operating income ($M)-173.25-26.9†6-193.87-259.78-128.4549.7†6-74.47-170.78
Net income ($M)-153.299.1†10-139.611-262.612-103.5945.2†10-89.011-164.012
EPS, diluted ($)-0.0913-0.0814-0.1615-0.0613-0.0514-0.1015
Diluted shares (M)1,663.0161,696.4171,674.9181,696.5161,687.7171,663.418
Cash ($M)965.0191,046.520911.221926.022953.3191,030.4221,061.921958.822
Long-term debt ($M)3,641.3233,607.7243,576.7253,576.0263,490.9273,489.9283,488.7293,381.428
Cash from operations ($M)115.930230.6†31151.63288.533146.530269.6†31326.832176.233
Capex ($M)44.03448.3†3537.23664.73753.03464.0†3540.83655.737
Free cash flow ($M)71.8†38182.4†39114.4†4023.8†4193.4†38205.6†39286.0†40120.5†41

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2026Q31,720.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2026Q42,050.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q11,760.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q21,960.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

Advertising and paid-product growth versus infrastructure and dilution

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Build advertising and other revenue separately; other includes subscriptions and additional products, not a pure subscriber metric. Q3 base $1.720B revenue and $325M adjusted EBITDA match guidance midpoints. FY2026 base infrastructure cost $1.675B and adjusted operating expense $2.750B reconcile to reviewed management outlook after H1 actuals; other adjusted cost of revenue uses 16.5% of sales. SPECS investment stays within the existing operating budget, with no second launch-cost deduction. Derive GAAP earnings with full SBC, payroll tax, D&A and restructuring excluding SBC/D&A already counted. Bridge EBITDA to CFO and show repurchases/principal below FCF.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
q2 adsJune 20261,282.52reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
q2 otherJune 2026316.47reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
Q3 revenue midpoint2026Q31,720.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q3 EBITDA midpoint2026Q3325.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 infrastructure midpointFY20261,675.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 adjusted operating expense outlookFY20262,750.00management guidance. Approximate full-year cost outlook; already includes Specs investment. Source · 2026-08-03
FY2026 SBC outlookFY20261,050.00management guidance. Approximate company outlook; treated as total SBC including actual H1 restructuring SBC. Source · 2026-08-03
H1 adj ebitdaH1 2026482.95reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
H1 reconstructed operating incomeH1 2026-245.17derived. Reconciles to reported GAAP operating loss.
H1 cfoH1 2026502.99reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
H1 CFO less PP&EH1 2026406.55derived. Before repurchases and acquisitions.
H1 buybacksH1 2026600.96reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
H1 cash after repurchases/principalH1 2026-194.42derived. Before acquisitions and strategic investments.
Cash plus marketable securitiesJune 20262,659.76derived. Excludes restricted cash and undrawn facilities.
debt faceJune 20263,467.52reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
notes 2026June 202647.01reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04
notes 2027June 2026106.32reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Share repurchases and related tax ($M)Advertising revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Other product revenue ($M)Scheduled note principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
2026Q3131.1576.1555.001,660.00100.001,330.00235.15916.15330.0047.01-92.24-70.86
2026Q4345.50286.5059.001,905.0050.001,540.00368.501,118.80365.000.0039.11236.50
2027Q1-27.30-90.3063.001,590.000.001,210.00139.70854.30380.000.00-203.30-90.30
2027Q2148.8081.8067.001,760.000.001,370.00250.80984.70390.00106.32-99.20-24.52
FY2026979.64769.19210.456,692.78750.965,395.981,086.603,829.611,296.8047.01-298.29-28.78
FY2027670.35394.35276.007,245.000.005,640.001,100.354,079.551,605.00106.32-325.65288.03

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Share repurchases and related tax ($M)Advertising revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Other product revenue ($M)Scheduled note principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
2026Q3246.00191.0055.001,720.00200.001,380.00325.00987.05340.0047.01-2.39-56.01
2026Q4561.32502.3259.002,050.00200.001,650.00529.321,261.90400.000.00199.94302.32
2027Q1150.6087.6063.001,760.00180.001,340.00297.601,004.20420.000.00-45.40-92.40
2027Q2347.60280.6067.001,960.00180.001,510.00424.601,153.50450.00106.3274.60-5.72
FY20261,310.321,099.87210.456,897.781,000.965,555.981,337.274,043.611,341.8047.01-47.6251.89
FY20271,563.651,287.65276.008,190.00720.006,300.001,868.654,856.851,890.00106.32442.65461.33

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less cash PP&E ($M)Cash PP&E ($M)Consolidated revenue ($M)Share repurchases and related tax ($M)Advertising revenue ($M)Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)Other product revenue ($M)Scheduled note principal ($M)GAAP operating income proxy ($M)Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
2026Q3271.20216.2055.001,755.00250.001,405.00355.201,021.20350.0047.0127.81-80.81
2026Q4618.40559.4059.002,135.00250.001,710.00596.401,336.70425.000.00267.01309.40
2027Q1216.40153.4063.001,885.00240.001,420.00373.401,098.00465.000.0030.40-86.60
2027Q2454.40387.4067.002,160.00260.001,640.00541.401,300.30520.00106.32191.4021.08
FY20261,392.591,182.15210.457,017.781,100.965,640.981,434.554,152.561,376.8047.0149.6634.17
FY20272,064.801,788.80276.009,170.001,080.006,930.002,414.805,569.002,240.00106.32988.80602.48
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
H1 revenue
h1_revenue
H1 2026 / shared3,127.78
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 ad revenue
h1_ad_revenue
H1 2026 / shared2,525.98
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 other revenue
h1_other_revenue
H1 2026 / shared601.80
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 operating income
h1_operating_income
H1 2026 / shared-245.17
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 adj ebitda
h1_adj_ebitda
H1 2026 / shared482.95
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 cfo
h1_cfo
H1 2026 / shared502.99
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 capex
h1_capex
H1 2026 / shared96.45
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 buybacks
h1_buybacks
H1 2026 / shared600.96
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 debt principal
h1_debt_principal
H1 2026 / shared0.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 gaap cogs
h1_gaap_cogs
H1 2026 / shared1,333.13
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 infrastructure
h1_infrastructure
H1 2026 / shared804.70
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 adj opex
h1_adj_opex
H1 2026 / shared1,326.67
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 sbc total
h1_sbc_total
H1 2026 / shared513.23
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 payroll tax
h1_payroll_tax
H1 2026 / shared22.60
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 da total
h1_da_total
H1 2026 / shared91.64
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 restructuring
h1_restructuring
H1 2026 / shared128.50
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 restruct sbc
h1_restruct_sbc
H1 2026 / shared26.51
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 restruct da
h1_restruct_da
H1 2026 / shared1.35
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
H1 GAAP gross profit
h1_gross_profit
H1 2026 / shared1,794.66
USD_millions
derived: Consolidated revenue less GAAP cost of revenue. Formula: subtract(h1_revenue, h1_gaap_cogs).
H1 CFO less PP&E
h1_fcf
H1 2026 / shared406.55
USD_millions
derived: Before repurchases and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex).
SBC and D&A inside restructuring
h1_restruct_noncash
H1 2026 / shared27.86
USD_millions
derived: These also enter total SBC and total D&A. Formula: sum(h1_restruct_sbc, h1_restruct_da).
H1 restructuring excluding counted SBC and D&A
h1_incremental_restructuring
H1 2026 / shared100.65
USD_millions
derived: Includes severance and lease charges; this is an expense bridge, not a new cash-payment estimate. Formula: subtract(h1_restructuring, h1_restruct_noncash).
H1 total GAAP adjustments
h1_gaap_deductions
H1 2026 / shared728.12
USD_millions
derived: Full equity expense, payroll tax, D&A and non-duplicated restructuring. Formula: sum(h1_sbc_total, h1_payroll_tax, h1_da_total, h1_incremental_restructuring).
H1 reconstructed operating income
h1_gaap_bridge
H1 2026 / shared-245.17
USD_millions
derived: Reconciles to reported GAAP operating loss. Formula: subtract(h1_adj_ebitda, h1_gaap_deductions).
H1 buybacks and principal
h1_claims
H1 2026 / shared600.96
USD_millions
derived: No H1 note repayment. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, h1_debt_principal).
H1 cash after repurchases/principal
h1_cash_after_claims
H1 2026 / shared-194.42
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_claims).
cash
cash
June 2026 / shared958.85
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
marketable securities
marketable_securities
June 2026 / shared1,700.91
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
debt face
debt_face
June 2026 / shared3,467.52
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
notes 2026
notes_2026
June 2026 / shared47.01
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
notes 2027
notes_2027
June 2026 / shared106.32
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
q2 ads
q2_ads
June 2026 / shared1,282.52
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
q2 other
q2_other
June 2026 / shared316.47
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
h1 acquisitions
h1_acquisitions
June 2026 / shared65.05
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04
Cash plus marketable securities
liquidity
June 2026 / shared2,659.76
USD_millions
derived: Excludes restricted cash and undrawn facilities. Formula: sum(cash, marketable_securities).
Q3 revenue low
q3_revenue_low
2026Q3 / shared1,700.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
Q3 revenue high
q3_revenue_high
2026Q3 / shared1,740.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
Q3 revenue endpoint sum
q3_revenue_sum
2026Q3 / shared3,440.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_low, q3_revenue_high).
Q3 revenue midpoint
q3_revenue
2026Q3 / shared1,720.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_sum, two).
Q3 EBITDA low
q3_ebitda_low
2026Q3 / shared300.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
Q3 EBITDA high
q3_ebitda_high
2026Q3 / shared350.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
Q3 EBITDA endpoint sum
q3_ebitda_sum
2026Q3 / shared650.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_ebitda_low, q3_ebitda_high).
Q3 EBITDA midpoint
q3_ebitda
2026Q3 / shared325.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_ebitda_sum, two).
FY2026 infrastructure low
fy26_infra_low
FY2026 / shared1,650.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
FY2026 infrastructure high
fy26_infra_high
FY2026 / shared1,700.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03
FY2026 infrastructure endpoint sum
fy26_infra_sum
FY2026 / shared3,350.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_infra_low, fy26_infra_high).
FY2026 infrastructure midpoint
fy26_infra
FY2026 / shared1,675.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_infra_sum, two).
FY2026 adjusted operating expense outlook
fy26_opex
FY2026 / shared2,750.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Approximate full-year cost outlook; already includes Specs investment. Primary source · 2026-08-03
FY2026 SBC outlook
fy26_sbc
FY2026 / shared1,050.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Approximate company outlook; treated as total SBC including actual H1 restructuring SBC. Primary source · 2026-08-03
Advertising revenue
downside_2026q3_ad_revenue
2026Q3 / downside1,330.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2026q3_other_revenue
2026Q3 / downside330.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / downside1,660.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_ad_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2026q3_infrastructure
2026Q3 / downside447.65
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q3 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2026q3_other_cogs
2026Q3 / downside282.20
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2026q3_adj_cogs
2026Q3 / downside729.85
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_infrastructure, downside_2026q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside930.15
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2026q3_cogs_sbc
2026Q3 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2026q3_cogs_da
2026Q3 / downside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments
2026Q3 / downside14.00
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cogs_sbc, downside_2026q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / downside916.15
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2026q3_cash_opex
2026Q3 / downside695.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / downside235.15
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / downside268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll
2026Q3 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / downside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / downside327.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / downside-92.24
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest
2026Q3 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / downside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / downside104.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / downside131.15
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / downside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / downside76.15
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2026q3_buybacks
2026Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2026q3_notes26_weight
2026Q3 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2026q3_repay_2026
2026Q3 / downside47.01
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2026q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2026q3_notes27_weight
2026Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2026q3_repay_2027
2026Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2026q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / downside47.01
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_repay_2026, downside_2026q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / downside147.01
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_buybacks, downside_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / downside-70.86
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
downside_2026q4_ad_revenue
2026Q4 / downside1,540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2026q4_other_revenue
2026Q4 / downside365.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / downside1,905.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_ad_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2026q4_infrastructure
2026Q4 / downside447.65
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q4 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2026q4_other_cogs
2026Q4 / downside323.85
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2026q4_adj_cogs
2026Q4 / downside771.50
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_infrastructure, downside_2026q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside1,133.50
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2026q4_cogs_sbc
2026Q4 / downside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2026q4_cogs_da
2026Q4 / downside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments
2026Q4 / downside14.70
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cogs_sbc, downside_2026q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / downside1,118.80
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2026q4_cash_opex
2026Q4 / downside765.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / downside368.50
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / downside268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll
2026Q4 / downside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / downside329.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / downside39.11
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest
2026Q4 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / downside-25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / downside23.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / downside345.50
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / downside59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / downside286.50
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2026q4_buybacks
2026Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2026q4_notes26_weight
2026Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2026q4_repay_2026
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2026q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2026q4_notes27_weight
2026Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2026q4_repay_2027
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2026q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_repay_2026, downside_2026q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / downside50.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_buybacks, downside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / downside236.50
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
downside_2027q1_ad_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1,210.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / downside380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside1,590.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ad_revenue, downside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2027q1_infrastructure
2027Q1 / downside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q1 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2027q1_other_cogs
2027Q1 / downside270.30
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2027q1_adj_cogs
2027Q1 / downside720.30
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_infrastructure, downside_2027q1_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside869.70
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2027q1_cogs_da
2027Q1 / downside3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside15.40
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q1_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside854.30
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2027q1_cash_opex
2027Q1 / downside730.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / downside139.70
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside275.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll
2027Q1 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / downside343.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside-203.30
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest
2027Q1 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / downside110.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside167.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-27.30
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-90.30
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2027q1_buybacks
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2027q1_notes26_weight
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2027q1_repay_2026
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q1_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2027q1_notes27_weight
2027Q1 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2027q1_repay_2027
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q1_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_repay_2026, downside_2027q1_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_buybacks, downside_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside-90.30
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
downside_2027q2_ad_revenue
2027Q2 / downside1,370.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / downside390.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside1,760.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_ad_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2027q2_infrastructure
2027Q2 / downside460.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q2 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2027q2_other_cogs
2027Q2 / downside299.20
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2027q2_adj_cogs
2027Q2 / downside759.20
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_infrastructure, downside_2027q2_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside1,000.80
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / downside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2027q2_cogs_da
2027Q2 / downside3.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside16.10
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q2_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside984.70
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2027q2_cash_opex
2027Q2 / downside750.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / downside250.80
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside284.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll
2027Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / downside350.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside-99.20
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / downside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / downside45.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside102.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside148.80
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside81.80
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2027q2_buybacks
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2027q2_notes26_weight
2027Q2 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2027q2_repay_2026
2027Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q2_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2027q2_notes27_weight
2027Q2 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2027q2_repay_2027
2027Q2 / downside106.32
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q2_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / downside106.32
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_repay_2026, downside_2027q2_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / downside106.32
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_buybacks, downside_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside-24.52
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
downside_2027q3_ad_revenue
2027Q3 / downside1,430.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / downside405.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside1,835.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_ad_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2027q3_infrastructure
2027Q3 / downside472.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q3 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2027q3_other_cogs
2027Q3 / downside311.95
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2027q3_adj_cogs
2027Q3 / downside783.95
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_infrastructure, downside_2027q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside1,051.05
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / downside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2027q3_cogs_da
2027Q3 / downside3.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside16.80
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside1,034.25
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2027q3_cash_opex
2027Q3 / downside765.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / downside286.05
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside293.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll
2027Q3 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside56.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / downside361.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside-74.95
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / downside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / downside60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside121.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside165.05
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside94.05
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2027q3_buybacks
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2027q3_notes26_weight
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2027q3_repay_2026
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2027q3_notes27_weight
2027Q3 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2027q3_repay_2027
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_repay_2026, downside_2027q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_buybacks, downside_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside94.05
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
downside_2027q4_ad_revenue
2027Q4 / downside1,630.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
downside_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / downside430.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside2,060.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_ad_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
downside_2027q4_infrastructure
2027Q4 / downside486.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
downside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q4 / downside17.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
downside_2027q4_other_cogs
2027Q4 / downside350.20
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
downside_2027q4_adj_cogs
2027Q4 / downside836.20
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_infrastructure, downside_2027q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside1,223.80
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / downside13.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
downside_2027q4_cogs_da
2027Q4 / downside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside17.50
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside1,206.30
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
downside_2027q4_cash_opex
2027Q4 / downside800.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / downside423.80
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside302.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll
2027Q4 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside58.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
downside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / downside372.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside51.80
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / downside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
downside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / downside-25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside40.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside383.80
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside308.80
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
downside_2027q4_buybacks
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
downside_2027q4_notes26_weight
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
downside_2027q4_repay_2026
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
downside_2027q4_notes27_weight
2027Q4 / downside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
downside_2027q4_repay_2027
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
downside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_repay_2026, downside_2027q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
downside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_buybacks, downside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside308.80
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / downside6,692.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_ad_revenue
FY2026 / downside5,395.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, downside_2026q3_ad_revenue, downside_2026q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
downside_fy2026_other_revenue
FY2026 / downside1,296.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / downside3,829.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / downside-298.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / downside1,086.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / downside979.64
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / downside210.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / downside769.19
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
downside_fy2026_buybacks
FY2026 / downside750.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, downside_2026q3_buybacks, downside_2026q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / downside47.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, downside_2026q3_debt_principal, downside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / downside-28.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside7,245.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_ad_revenue
FY2027 / downside5,640.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ad_revenue, downside_2027q2_ad_revenue, downside_2027q3_ad_revenue, downside_2027q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / downside1,605.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside4,079.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside-325.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / downside1,100.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside670.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside276.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside394.35
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
downside_fy2027_buybacks
FY2027 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_buybacks, downside_2027q2_buybacks, downside_2027q3_buybacks, downside_2027q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / downside106.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_debt_principal, downside_2027q2_debt_principal, downside_2027q3_debt_principal, downside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside288.03
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Advertising revenue
base_2026q3_ad_revenue
2026Q3 / base1,380.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2026q3_other_revenue
2026Q3 / base340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / base1,720.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_ad_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2026q3_infrastructure
2026Q3 / base435.15
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q3 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2026q3_other_cogs
2026Q3 / base283.80
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2026q3_adj_cogs
2026Q3 / base718.95
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_infrastructure, base_2026q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base1,001.05
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2026q3_cogs_sbc
2026Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2026q3_cogs_da
2026Q3 / base3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2026q3_cogs_adjustments
2026Q3 / base14.00
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cogs_sbc, base_2026q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / base987.05
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2026q3_cash_opex
2026Q3 / base676.05
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / base325.00
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / base268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2026q3_sbc_payroll
2026Q3 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / base48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2026q3_incremental_restructuring
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / base327.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_sbc_payroll, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / base-2.39
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2026q3_net_cash_interest
2026Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / base15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / base35.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / base79.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc_payroll, base_2026q3_net_cash_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / base246.00
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / base55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / base191.00
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2026q3_buybacks
2026Q3 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2026q3_notes26_weight
2026Q3 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2026q3_repay_2026
2026Q3 / base47.01
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2026q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2026q3_notes27_weight
2026Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2026q3_repay_2027
2026Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2026q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / base47.01
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_repay_2026, base_2026q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / base247.01
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_buybacks, base_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / base-56.01
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
base_2026q4_ad_revenue
2026Q4 / base1,650.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2026q4_other_revenue
2026Q4 / base400.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / base2,050.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_ad_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2026q4_infrastructure
2026Q4 / base435.15
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q4 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2026q4_other_cogs
2026Q4 / base338.25
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2026q4_adj_cogs
2026Q4 / base773.40
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_infrastructure, base_2026q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base1,276.60
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2026q4_cogs_sbc
2026Q4 / base11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2026q4_cogs_da
2026Q4 / base3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2026q4_cogs_adjustments
2026Q4 / base14.70
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cogs_sbc, base_2026q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / base1,261.90
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2026q4_cash_opex
2026Q4 / base747.28
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / base529.32
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / base268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2026q4_sbc_payroll
2026Q4 / base11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2026q4_incremental_restructuring
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / base329.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_sbc_payroll, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / base199.94
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2026q4_net_cash_interest
2026Q4 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / base-80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / base-32.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc_payroll, base_2026q4_net_cash_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / base561.32
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / base59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / base502.32
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2026q4_buybacks
2026Q4 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2026q4_notes26_weight
2026Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2026q4_repay_2026
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2026q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2026q4_notes27_weight
2026Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2026q4_repay_2027
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2026q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_repay_2026, base_2026q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / base200.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_buybacks, base_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / base302.32
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
base_2027q1_ad_revenue
2027Q1 / base1,340.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / base420.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base1,760.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ad_revenue, base_2027q1_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2027q1_infrastructure
2027Q1 / base450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q1 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2027q1_other_cogs
2027Q1 / base290.40
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2027q1_adj_cogs
2027Q1 / base740.40
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_infrastructure, base_2027q1_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base1,019.60
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2027q1_cogs_da
2027Q1 / base3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2027q1_cogs_adjustments
2027Q1 / base15.40
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cogs_sbc, base_2027q1_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base1,004.20
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q1_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2027q1_cash_opex
2027Q1 / base722.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / base297.60
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q1_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base275.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2027q1_sbc_payroll
2027Q1 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2027q1_incremental_restructuring
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / base343.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_sbc_payroll, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base-45.40
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2027q1_net_cash_interest
2027Q1 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / base90.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base147.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc_payroll, base_2027q1_net_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base150.60
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base87.60
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2027q1_buybacks
2027Q1 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2027q1_notes26_weight
2027Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2027q1_repay_2026
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q1_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2027q1_notes27_weight
2027Q1 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2027q1_repay_2027
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q1_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_repay_2026, base_2027q1_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_buybacks, base_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base-92.40
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
base_2027q2_ad_revenue
2027Q2 / base1,510.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / base450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base1,960.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_ad_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2027q2_infrastructure
2027Q2 / base467.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q2 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2027q2_other_cogs
2027Q2 / base323.40
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2027q2_adj_cogs
2027Q2 / base790.40
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_infrastructure, base_2027q2_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base1,169.60
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / base12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2027q2_cogs_da
2027Q2 / base3.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2027q2_cogs_adjustments
2027Q2 / base16.10
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cogs_sbc, base_2027q2_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base1,153.50
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q2_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2027q2_cash_opex
2027Q2 / base745.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / base424.60
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q2_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base284.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2027q2_sbc_payroll
2027Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2027q2_incremental_restructuring
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / base350.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_sbc_payroll, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base74.60
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / base24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base77.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc_payroll, base_2027q2_net_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base347.60
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base280.60
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2027q2_buybacks
2027Q2 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2027q2_notes26_weight
2027Q2 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2027q2_repay_2026
2027Q2 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q2_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2027q2_notes27_weight
2027Q2 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2027q2_repay_2027
2027Q2 / base106.32
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q2_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / base106.32
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_repay_2026, base_2027q2_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / base286.32
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_buybacks, base_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base-5.72
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
base_2027q3_ad_revenue
2027Q3 / base1,590.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / base485.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base2,075.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_ad_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2027q3_infrastructure
2027Q3 / base487.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q3 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2027q3_other_cogs
2027Q3 / base342.38
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2027q3_adj_cogs
2027Q3 / base829.38
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_infrastructure, base_2027q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base1,245.62
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / base13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2027q3_cogs_da
2027Q3 / base3.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2027q3_cogs_adjustments
2027Q3 / base16.80
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cogs_sbc, base_2027q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base1,228.83
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2027q3_cash_opex
2027Q3 / base770.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / base475.62
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base293.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2027q3_sbc_payroll
2027Q3 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base56.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2027q3_incremental_restructuring
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / base361.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_sbc_payroll, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base114.62
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / base26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / base30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base91.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc_payroll, base_2027q3_net_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base384.62
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base313.62
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2027q3_buybacks
2027Q3 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2027q3_notes26_weight
2027Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2027q3_repay_2026
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2027q3_notes27_weight
2027Q3 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2027q3_repay_2027
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_repay_2026, base_2027q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_buybacks, base_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base133.62
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
base_2027q4_ad_revenue
2027Q4 / base1,860.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
base_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / base535.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base2,395.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_ad_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
base_2027q4_infrastructure
2027Q4 / base512.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
base_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q4 / base16.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
base_2027q4_other_cogs
2027Q4 / base395.18
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
base_2027q4_adj_cogs
2027Q4 / base907.17
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_infrastructure, base_2027q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base1,487.83
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
base_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / base13.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
base_2027q4_cogs_da
2027Q4 / base4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
base_2027q4_cogs_adjustments
2027Q4 / base17.50
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cogs_sbc, base_2027q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base1,470.33
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
base_2027q4_cash_opex
2027Q4 / base817.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
base_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / base670.83
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base302.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
base_2027q4_sbc_payroll
2027Q4 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base58.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
base_2027q4_incremental_restructuring
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / base372.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_sbc_payroll, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base298.83
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
base_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / base28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
base_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / base-75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base-10.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc_payroll, base_2027q4_net_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base680.83
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base605.83
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
base_2027q4_buybacks
2027Q4 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
base_2027q4_notes26_weight
2027Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
base_2027q4_repay_2026
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
base_2027q4_notes27_weight
2027Q4 / base0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
base_2027q4_repay_2027
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
base_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_repay_2026, base_2027q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
base_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / base180.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_buybacks, base_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base425.83
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_capital_uses).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / base6,897.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_ad_revenue
FY2026 / base5,555.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, base_2026q3_ad_revenue, base_2026q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
base_fy2026_other_revenue
FY2026 / base1,341.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / base4,043.61
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / base-47.62
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / base1,337.27
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / base1,310.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / base210.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / base1,099.87
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
base_fy2026_buybacks
FY2026 / base1,000.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, base_2026q3_buybacks, base_2026q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
base_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / base47.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, base_2026q3_debt_principal, base_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
base_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / base51.89
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base8,190.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_ad_revenue
FY2027 / base6,300.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ad_revenue, base_2027q2_ad_revenue, base_2027q3_ad_revenue, base_2027q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / base1,890.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base4,856.85
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base442.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / base1,868.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base1,563.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base276.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base1,287.65
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
base_fy2027_buybacks
FY2027 / base720.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_buybacks, base_2027q2_buybacks, base_2027q3_buybacks, base_2027q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
base_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / base106.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_debt_principal, base_2027q2_debt_principal, base_2027q3_debt_principal, base_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base461.33
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Advertising revenue
upside_2026q3_ad_revenue
2026Q3 / upside1,405.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2026q3_other_revenue
2026Q3 / upside350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q3_revenue
2026Q3 / upside1,755.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_ad_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2026q3_infrastructure
2026Q3 / upside439.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q3 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2026q3_other_cogs
2026Q3 / upside280.80
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2026q3_adj_cogs
2026Q3 / upside719.80
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_infrastructure, upside_2026q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside1,035.20
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2026q3_cogs_sbc
2026Q3 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2026q3_cogs_da
2026Q3 / upside3.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments
2026Q3 / upside14.00
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cogs_sbc, upside_2026q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q3_gross_profit
2026Q3 / upside1,021.20
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2026q3_cash_opex
2026Q3 / upside680.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda
2026Q3 / upside355.20
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2026q3_sbc
2026Q3 / upside268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll
2026Q3 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2026q3_da
2026Q3 / upside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments
2026Q3 / upside327.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q3_operating_income
2026Q3 / upside27.81
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest
2026Q3 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2026q3_cash_tax
2026Q3 / upside15.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2026q3_wc_use
2026Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2026q3_cash_uses
2026Q3 / upside84.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q3_cfo
2026Q3 / upside271.20
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2026q3_capex
2026Q3 / upside55.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2026q3_fcf
2026Q3 / upside216.20
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2026q3_buybacks
2026Q3 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2026q3_notes26_weight
2026Q3 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2026q3_repay_2026
2026Q3 / upside47.01
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2026q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2026q3_notes27_weight
2026Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2026q3_repay_2027
2026Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2026q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2026q3_debt_principal
2026Q3 / upside47.01
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_repay_2026, upside_2026q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2026q3_capital_uses
2026Q3 / upside297.01
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_buybacks, upside_2026q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims
2026Q3 / upside-80.81
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
upside_2026q4_ad_revenue
2026Q4 / upside1,710.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2026q4_other_revenue
2026Q4 / upside425.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2026q4_revenue
2026Q4 / upside2,135.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_ad_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2026q4_infrastructure
2026Q4 / upside442.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio
2026Q4 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2026q4_other_cogs
2026Q4 / upside341.60
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2026q4_adj_cogs
2026Q4 / upside783.60
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_infrastructure, upside_2026q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside1,351.40
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2026q4_cogs_sbc
2026Q4 / upside11.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2026q4_cogs_da
2026Q4 / upside3.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments
2026Q4 / upside14.70
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cogs_sbc, upside_2026q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2026q4_gross_profit
2026Q4 / upside1,336.70
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2026q4_cash_opex
2026Q4 / upside755.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda
2026Q4 / upside596.40
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2026q4_sbc
2026Q4 / upside268.39
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll
2026Q4 / upside11.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2026q4_da
2026Q4 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments
2026Q4 / upside329.39
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2026q4_operating_income
2026Q4 / upside267.01
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest
2026Q4 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2026q4_cash_tax
2026Q4 / upside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2026q4_wc_use
2026Q4 / upside-70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2026q4_cash_uses
2026Q4 / upside-22.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2026q4_cfo
2026Q4 / upside618.40
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2026q4_capex
2026Q4 / upside59.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2026q4_fcf
2026Q4 / upside559.40
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2026q4_buybacks
2026Q4 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2026q4_notes26_weight
2026Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2026q4_repay_2026
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2026q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2026q4_notes27_weight
2026Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2026q4_repay_2027
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2026q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2026q4_debt_principal
2026Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_repay_2026, upside_2026q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2026q4_capital_uses
2026Q4 / upside250.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_buybacks, upside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims
2026Q4 / upside309.40
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
upside_2027q1_ad_revenue
2027Q1 / upside1,420.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2027q1_other_revenue
2027Q1 / upside465.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside1,885.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ad_revenue, upside_2027q1_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2027q1_infrastructure
2027Q1 / upside470.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q1 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2027q1_other_cogs
2027Q1 / upside301.60
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2027q1_adj_cogs
2027Q1 / upside771.60
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_infrastructure, upside_2027q1_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside1,113.40
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2027q1_cogs_da
2027Q1 / upside3.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside15.40
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q1_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside1,098.00
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2027q1_cash_opex
2027Q1 / upside740.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda
2027Q1 / upside373.40
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside275.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll
2027Q1 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments
2027Q1 / upside343.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside30.40
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest
2027Q1 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2027q1_wc_use
2027Q1 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside157.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside216.40
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside63.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside153.40
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2027q1_buybacks
2027Q1 / upside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2027q1_notes26_weight
2027Q1 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2027q1_repay_2026
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q1_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2027q1_notes27_weight
2027Q1 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2027q1_repay_2027
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q1_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2027q1_debt_principal
2027Q1 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_repay_2026, upside_2027q1_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2027q1_capital_uses
2027Q1 / upside240.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_buybacks, upside_2027q1_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside-86.60
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
upside_2027q2_ad_revenue
2027Q2 / upside1,640.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2027q2_other_revenue
2027Q2 / upside520.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside2,160.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_ad_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2027q2_infrastructure
2027Q2 / upside498.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q2 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2027q2_other_cogs
2027Q2 / upside345.60
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2027q2_adj_cogs
2027Q2 / upside843.60
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_infrastructure, upside_2027q2_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside1,316.40
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / upside12.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2027q2_cogs_da
2027Q2 / upside3.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside16.10
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q2_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside1,300.30
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2027q2_cash_opex
2027Q2 / upside775.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda
2027Q2 / upside541.40
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside284.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll
2027Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments
2027Q2 / upside350.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside191.40
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest
2027Q2 / upside24.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2027q2_wc_use
2027Q2 / upside30.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside87.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside454.40
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside67.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside387.40
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2027q2_buybacks
2027Q2 / upside260.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2027q2_notes26_weight
2027Q2 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2027q2_repay_2026
2027Q2 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q2_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2027q2_notes27_weight
2027Q2 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2027q2_repay_2027
2027Q2 / upside106.32
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q2_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2027q2_debt_principal
2027Q2 / upside106.32
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_repay_2026, upside_2027q2_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2027q2_capital_uses
2027Q2 / upside366.32
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_buybacks, upside_2027q2_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside21.08
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
upside_2027q3_ad_revenue
2027Q3 / upside1,770.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2027q3_other_revenue
2027Q3 / upside585.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside2,355.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_ad_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2027q3_infrastructure
2027Q3 / upside530.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q3 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2027q3_other_cogs
2027Q3 / upside376.80
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2027q3_adj_cogs
2027Q3 / upside906.80
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_infrastructure, upside_2027q3_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside1,448.20
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / upside13.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2027q3_cogs_da
2027Q3 / upside3.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside16.80
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q3_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside1,431.40
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2027q3_cash_opex
2027Q3 / upside820.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda
2027Q3 / upside628.20
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside293.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll
2027Q3 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside56.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments
2027Q3 / upside361.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside267.20
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest
2027Q3 / upside26.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2027q3_wc_use
2027Q3 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside101.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside527.20
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside71.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside456.20
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2027q3_buybacks
2027Q3 / upside280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2027q3_notes26_weight
2027Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2027q3_repay_2026
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q3_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2027q3_notes27_weight
2027Q3 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2027q3_repay_2027
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q3_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2027q3_debt_principal
2027Q3 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_repay_2026, upside_2027q3_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2027q3_capital_uses
2027Q3 / upside280.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_buybacks, upside_2027q3_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside176.20
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_capital_uses).
Advertising revenue
upside_2027q4_ad_revenue
2027Q4 / upside2,100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other product revenue
upside_2027q4_other_revenue
2027Q4 / upside670.00
USD_millions
assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue.
Consolidated revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside2,770.00
USD_millions
derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_ad_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
Infrastructure service costs
upside_2027q4_infrastructure
2027Q4 / upside570.00
USD_millions
assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1.
Other cost of revenue / revenue
upside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio
2027Q4 / upside16.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Other cost of revenue
upside_2027q4_other_cogs
2027Q4 / upside443.20
USD_millions
derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio).
Adjusted cost of revenue
upside_2027q4_adj_cogs
2027Q4 / upside1,013.20
USD_millions
derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_infrastructure, upside_2027q4_other_cogs).
Adjusted gross profit
upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside1,756.80
USD_millions
derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_adj_cogs).
COGS SBC and related payroll
upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / upside13.50
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS D&A
upside_2027q4_cogs_da
2027Q4 / upside4.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
COGS noncash and payroll adjustments
upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside17.50
USD_millions
derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q4_cogs_da).
GAAP gross profit proxy
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside1,739.30
USD_millions
derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments).
Adjusted operating expense including Specs
upside_2027q4_cash_opex
2027Q4 / upside885.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Adjusted EBITDA proxy
upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda
2027Q4 / upside871.80
USD_millions
derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_cash_opex).
Total equity compensation expense
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside302.00
USD_millions
assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk.
Cash payroll taxes on equity awards
upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll
2027Q4 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Total D&A
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside58.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above
upside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge.
SBC payroll D&A and restructuring
upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments
2027Q4 / upside372.00
USD_millions
derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring).
GAAP operating income proxy
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside499.80
USD_millions
derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments).
Cash debt interest less investment income
upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest
2027Q4 / upside28.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization.
Cash income tax
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside25.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Working capital and other cash use
upside_2027q4_wc_use
2027Q4 / upside-60.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
Cash operating adjustments
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside5.00
USD_millions
derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use).
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside866.80
USD_millions
derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash PP&E
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
CFO less PP&E
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside791.80
USD_millions
derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Share repurchases including tax
upside_2027q4_buybacks
2027Q4 / upside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program.
2026 principal timing
upside_2027q4_notes26_weight
2027Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
August 2026 note principal
upside_2027q4_repay_2026
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q4_notes26_weight).
2027 principal timing
upside_2027q4_notes27_weight
2027Q4 / upside0.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance.
May 2027 note principal
upside_2027q4_repay_2027
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q4_notes27_weight).
Scheduled note principal
upside_2027q4_debt_principal
2027Q4 / upside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_repay_2026, upside_2027q4_repay_2027).
Repurchases and principal
upside_2027q4_capital_uses
2027Q4 / upside300.00
USD_millions
derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_buybacks, upside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and note principal
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside491.80
USD_millions
derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_capital_uses).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_revenue
FY2026 / upside7,017.78
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_ad_revenue
FY2026 / upside5,640.98
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, upside_2026q3_ad_revenue, upside_2026q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
upside_fy2026_other_revenue
FY2026 / upside1,376.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_gross_profit
FY2026 / upside4,152.56
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_operating_income
FY2026 / upside49.66
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda
FY2026 / upside1,434.55
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2026_cfo
FY2026 / upside1,392.59
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2026_capex
FY2026 / upside210.45
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2026_fcf
FY2026 / upside1,182.15
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
upside_fy2026_buybacks
FY2026 / upside1,100.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, upside_2026q3_buybacks, upside_2026q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_debt_principal
FY2026 / upside47.01
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, upside_2026q3_debt_principal, upside_2026q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims
FY2026 / upside34.17
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims).
Consolidated revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside9,170.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
Advertising revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_ad_revenue
FY2027 / upside6,930.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ad_revenue, upside_2027q2_ad_revenue, upside_2027q3_ad_revenue, upside_2027q4_ad_revenue).
Other product revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_other_revenue
FY2027 / upside2,240.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue).
GAAP gross profit proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside5,569.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside988.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda
FY2027 / upside2,414.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside2,064.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside276.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less cash PP&E ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside1,788.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Share repurchases and related tax ($M)
upside_fy2027_buybacks
FY2027 / upside1,080.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_buybacks, upside_2027q2_buybacks, upside_2027q3_buybacks, upside_2027q4_buybacks).
Scheduled note principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_debt_principal
FY2027 / upside106.32
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_debt_principal, upside_2027q2_debt_principal, upside_2027q3_debt_principal, upside_2027q4_debt_principal).
Cash after repurchases and principal ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside602.48
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

Growth beyond ads, with the cost of dilution visible

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can faster other-product revenue and advertising recovery fund infrastructure, Specs and shareholder cash claims?

H1 revenue was $3.128B, including $2.526B advertising and $601.8M other revenue. Adjusted EBITDA $482.9M contrasts with GAAP operating loss $245.2M. CFO $503.0M less PP&E $96.4M produced $406.5M FCF, below $601.0M repurchase cash including tax, before acquisitions. June cash and securities totaled $2.660B against $3.468B debt face. H1 SBC $513.2M includes $26.5M restructuring SBC, and D&A includes $1.3M restructuring depreciation; the GAAP bridge prevents duplication. Q3 outlook is $1.70B-$1.74B revenue and $300M-$350M adjusted EBITDA. FY2026 infrastructure cost is $1.65B-$1.70B, adjusted operating expense about $2.75B and SBC about $1.05B. Specs investment is already inside operating guidance. The September product announcement offers $2,195 preorders with $200 refundable deposits and expects fall shipping; these terms do not establish recognized sales. August $47.0M note repayment and May 2027 $106.3M maturity sit below CFO.

The competing explanation

Paid-product momentum may mask weaker ad monetization or low-margin product mix. Hardware adoption may require sustained spending, while buybacks can consume the cash reported as FCF without materially reducing share count.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: Completed revenue/cost/cash scenarios with September SPECS terms, non-duplicated restructuring and separate repurchase/principal cash.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, quiet volume, closed weak, and some peers moving

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-3.3+0.2+3.554%
5 sessions-8.2+0.5+10.355%
10 sessions-11.7+0.4+15.752%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

Scorecard: 1 note scored

Next report date: not dated. Undated in the latest note (https://chartlibrary.io/research/views/snap-specs-2195-launch-20260917): SPECS First Look October 1; next earnings listed around November 4

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  2. [2] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  4. [4] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  5. [5] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  6. [6] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  7. [7] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  8. [8] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  9. [9] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  10. [10] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  11. [11] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  12. [12] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  13. [13] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  14. [14] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  15. [15] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  16. [16] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  17. [17] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  18. [18] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  19. [19] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  20. [20] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  21. [21] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  22. [22] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  23. [23] reported: LongTermDebt, accession 0001564408-24-000062, 10-Q filed 2024-10-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  24. [24] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  25. [25] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-04-30; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  26. [26] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-25-000052, 10-Q filed 2025-08-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  27. [27] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  28. [28] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  29. [29] reported: LongTermDebtNoncurrent, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  30. [30] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  31. [31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  32. [32] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  33. [33] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  34. [34] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  35. [35] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  36. [36] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  37. [37] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-25-000065, 10-Q filed 2025-11-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  39. [39] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000013, 10-K filed 2026-02-05; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  40. [40] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000027, 10-Q filed 2026-05-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json
  41. [41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001564408-26-000052, 10-Q filed 2026-08-04; retrieved 2026-09-19T22:44:31+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001564408.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T22:44:31.553742+00:00 · authored 3674c6ba29a7 · generated 79f5a2488c18 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard