$SNAP
Business
Snap earns advertising revenue on Snapchat and other revenue from paid products and services. Specs Inc. remains a wholly owned subsidiary developing augmented reality glasses and related computing services. Advertising yield, subscription adoption and infrastructure spending determine operating economics; equity compensation and repurchases determine how much cash remains for shareholders.
Three drivers
- Advertising demand and other-product monetization
- Infrastructure, partner costs and consolidated Specs investment
- Equity compensation, buybacks and debt service
Thesis
Our view
Other-product growth improves diversification, but a stronger EBITDA figure does not by itself establish GAAP profitability or cash retained after dilution management. The model tests revenue against hosting and operating budgets before subtracting compensation, cash costs and optional repurchases.
What changes it
Compare advertising growth, other revenue and infrastructure cost with the outlook; require actual shipped-product economics before giving SPECS a distinct revenue forecast.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 1,372.61 | 1,557.3†2 | 1,363.23 | 1,344.94 | 1,506.81 | 1,716.5†2 | 1,528.83 | 1,599.04 |
| Gross profit ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income ($M) | -173.25 | -26.9†6 | -193.87 | -259.78 | -128.45 | 49.7†6 | -74.47 | -170.78 |
| Net income ($M) | -153.29 | 9.1†10 | -139.611 | -262.612 | -103.59 | 45.2†10 | -89.011 | -164.012 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -0.0913 | — | -0.0814 | -0.1615 | -0.0613 | — | -0.0514 | -0.1015 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 1,663.016 | — | 1,696.417 | 1,674.918 | 1,696.516 | — | 1,687.717 | 1,663.418 |
| Cash ($M) | 965.019 | 1,046.520 | 911.221 | 926.022 | 953.319 | 1,030.422 | 1,061.921 | 958.822 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 3,641.323 | 3,607.724 | 3,576.725 | 3,576.026 | 3,490.927 | 3,489.928 | 3,488.729 | 3,381.428 |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 115.930 | 230.6†31 | 151.632 | 88.533 | 146.530 | 269.6†31 | 326.832 | 176.233 |
| Capex ($M) | 44.034 | 48.3†35 | 37.236 | 64.737 | 53.034 | 64.0†35 | 40.836 | 55.737 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 71.8†38 | 182.4†39 | 114.4†40 | 23.8†41 | 93.4†38 | 205.6†39 | 286.0†40 | 120.5†41 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 1,720.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 2,050.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 1,760.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 1,960.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Advertising and paid-product growth versus infrastructure and dilution
Build advertising and other revenue separately; other includes subscriptions and additional products, not a pure subscriber metric. Q3 base $1.720B revenue and $325M adjusted EBITDA match guidance midpoints. FY2026 base infrastructure cost $1.675B and adjusted operating expense $2.750B reconcile to reviewed management outlook after H1 actuals; other adjusted cost of revenue uses 16.5% of sales. SPECS investment stays within the existing operating budget, with no second launch-cost deduction. Derive GAAP earnings with full SBC, payroll tax, D&A and restructuring excluding SBC/D&A already counted. Bridge EBITDA to CFO and show repurchases/principal below FCF.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| q2 ads | June 2026 | 1,282.52 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| q2 other | June 2026 | 316.47 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 revenue midpoint | 2026Q3 | 1,720.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Q3 EBITDA midpoint | 2026Q3 | 325.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| FY2026 infrastructure midpoint | FY2026 | 1,675.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| FY2026 adjusted operating expense outlook | FY2026 | 2,750.00 | management guidance. Approximate full-year cost outlook; already includes Specs investment. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| FY2026 SBC outlook | FY2026 | 1,050.00 | management guidance. Approximate company outlook; treated as total SBC including actual H1 restructuring SBC. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| H1 adj ebitda | H1 2026 | 482.95 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 reconstructed operating income | H1 2026 | -245.17 | derived. Reconciles to reported GAAP operating loss. |
| H1 cfo | H1 2026 | 502.99 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 CFO less PP&E | H1 2026 | 406.55 | derived. Before repurchases and acquisitions. |
| H1 buybacks | H1 2026 | 600.96 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 cash after repurchases/principal | H1 2026 | -194.42 | derived. Before acquisitions and strategic investments. |
| Cash plus marketable securities | June 2026 | 2,659.76 | derived. Excludes restricted cash and undrawn facilities. |
| debt face | June 2026 | 3,467.52 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| notes 2026 | June 2026 | 47.01 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| notes 2027 | June 2026 | 106.32 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less cash PP&E ($M) | Cash PP&E ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Share repurchases and related tax ($M) | Advertising revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | Other product revenue ($M) | Scheduled note principal ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 131.15 | 76.15 | 55.00 | 1,660.00 | 100.00 | 1,330.00 | 235.15 | 916.15 | 330.00 | 47.01 | -92.24 | -70.86 |
| 2026Q4 | 345.50 | 286.50 | 59.00 | 1,905.00 | 50.00 | 1,540.00 | 368.50 | 1,118.80 | 365.00 | 0.00 | 39.11 | 236.50 |
| 2027Q1 | -27.30 | -90.30 | 63.00 | 1,590.00 | 0.00 | 1,210.00 | 139.70 | 854.30 | 380.00 | 0.00 | -203.30 | -90.30 |
| 2027Q2 | 148.80 | 81.80 | 67.00 | 1,760.00 | 0.00 | 1,370.00 | 250.80 | 984.70 | 390.00 | 106.32 | -99.20 | -24.52 |
| FY2026 | 979.64 | 769.19 | 210.45 | 6,692.78 | 750.96 | 5,395.98 | 1,086.60 | 3,829.61 | 1,296.80 | 47.01 | -298.29 | -28.78 |
| FY2027 | 670.35 | 394.35 | 276.00 | 7,245.00 | 0.00 | 5,640.00 | 1,100.35 | 4,079.55 | 1,605.00 | 106.32 | -325.65 | 288.03 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less cash PP&E ($M) | Cash PP&E ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Share repurchases and related tax ($M) | Advertising revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | Other product revenue ($M) | Scheduled note principal ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 246.00 | 191.00 | 55.00 | 1,720.00 | 200.00 | 1,380.00 | 325.00 | 987.05 | 340.00 | 47.01 | -2.39 | -56.01 |
| 2026Q4 | 561.32 | 502.32 | 59.00 | 2,050.00 | 200.00 | 1,650.00 | 529.32 | 1,261.90 | 400.00 | 0.00 | 199.94 | 302.32 |
| 2027Q1 | 150.60 | 87.60 | 63.00 | 1,760.00 | 180.00 | 1,340.00 | 297.60 | 1,004.20 | 420.00 | 0.00 | -45.40 | -92.40 |
| 2027Q2 | 347.60 | 280.60 | 67.00 | 1,960.00 | 180.00 | 1,510.00 | 424.60 | 1,153.50 | 450.00 | 106.32 | 74.60 | -5.72 |
| FY2026 | 1,310.32 | 1,099.87 | 210.45 | 6,897.78 | 1,000.96 | 5,555.98 | 1,337.27 | 4,043.61 | 1,341.80 | 47.01 | -47.62 | 51.89 |
| FY2027 | 1,563.65 | 1,287.65 | 276.00 | 8,190.00 | 720.00 | 6,300.00 | 1,868.65 | 4,856.85 | 1,890.00 | 106.32 | 442.65 | 461.33 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less cash PP&E ($M) | Cash PP&E ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Share repurchases and related tax ($M) | Advertising revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) | Other product revenue ($M) | Scheduled note principal ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 271.20 | 216.20 | 55.00 | 1,755.00 | 250.00 | 1,405.00 | 355.20 | 1,021.20 | 350.00 | 47.01 | 27.81 | -80.81 |
| 2026Q4 | 618.40 | 559.40 | 59.00 | 2,135.00 | 250.00 | 1,710.00 | 596.40 | 1,336.70 | 425.00 | 0.00 | 267.01 | 309.40 |
| 2027Q1 | 216.40 | 153.40 | 63.00 | 1,885.00 | 240.00 | 1,420.00 | 373.40 | 1,098.00 | 465.00 | 0.00 | 30.40 | -86.60 |
| 2027Q2 | 454.40 | 387.40 | 67.00 | 2,160.00 | 260.00 | 1,640.00 | 541.40 | 1,300.30 | 520.00 | 106.32 | 191.40 | 21.08 |
| FY2026 | 1,392.59 | 1,182.15 | 210.45 | 7,017.78 | 1,100.96 | 5,640.98 | 1,434.55 | 4,152.56 | 1,376.80 | 47.01 | 49.66 | 34.17 |
| FY2027 | 2,064.80 | 1,788.80 | 276.00 | 9,170.00 | 1,080.00 | 6,930.00 | 2,414.80 | 5,569.00 | 2,240.00 | 106.32 | 988.80 | 602.48 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 3,127.78 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 ad revenue h1_ad_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 2,525.98 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 other revenue h1_other_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 601.80 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | -245.17 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 adj ebitda h1_adj_ebitda | H1 2026 / shared | 482.95 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | 502.99 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 96.45 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 buybacks h1_buybacks | H1 2026 / shared | 600.96 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 debt principal h1_debt_principal | H1 2026 / shared | 0.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 gaap cogs h1_gaap_cogs | H1 2026 / shared | 1,333.13 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 infrastructure h1_infrastructure | H1 2026 / shared | 804.70 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 adj opex h1_adj_opex | H1 2026 / shared | 1,326.67 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 sbc total h1_sbc_total | H1 2026 / shared | 513.23 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 payroll tax h1_payroll_tax | H1 2026 / shared | 22.60 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 da total h1_da_total | H1 2026 / shared | 91.64 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 restructuring h1_restructuring | H1 2026 / shared | 128.50 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 restruct sbc h1_restruct_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 26.51 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 restruct da h1_restruct_da | H1 2026 / shared | 1.35 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| H1 GAAP gross profit h1_gross_profit | H1 2026 / shared | 1,794.66 USD_millions | derived: Consolidated revenue less GAAP cost of revenue. Formula: subtract(h1_revenue, h1_gaap_cogs). |
| H1 CFO less PP&E h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | 406.55 USD_millions | derived: Before repurchases and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| SBC and D&A inside restructuring h1_restruct_noncash | H1 2026 / shared | 27.86 USD_millions | derived: These also enter total SBC and total D&A. Formula: sum(h1_restruct_sbc, h1_restruct_da). |
| H1 restructuring excluding counted SBC and D&A h1_incremental_restructuring | H1 2026 / shared | 100.65 USD_millions | derived: Includes severance and lease charges; this is an expense bridge, not a new cash-payment estimate. Formula: subtract(h1_restructuring, h1_restruct_noncash). |
| H1 total GAAP adjustments h1_gaap_deductions | H1 2026 / shared | 728.12 USD_millions | derived: Full equity expense, payroll tax, D&A and non-duplicated restructuring. Formula: sum(h1_sbc_total, h1_payroll_tax, h1_da_total, h1_incremental_restructuring). |
| H1 reconstructed operating income h1_gaap_bridge | H1 2026 / shared | -245.17 USD_millions | derived: Reconciles to reported GAAP operating loss. Formula: subtract(h1_adj_ebitda, h1_gaap_deductions). |
| H1 buybacks and principal h1_claims | H1 2026 / shared | 600.96 USD_millions | derived: No H1 note repayment. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, h1_debt_principal). |
| H1 cash after repurchases/principal h1_cash_after_claims | H1 2026 / shared | -194.42 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_claims). |
| cash cash | June 2026 / shared | 958.85 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| marketable securities marketable_securities | June 2026 / shared | 1,700.91 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| debt face debt_face | June 2026 / shared | 3,467.52 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| notes 2026 notes_2026 | June 2026 / shared | 47.01 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| notes 2027 notes_2027 | June 2026 / shared | 106.32 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| q2 ads q2_ads | June 2026 / shared | 1,282.52 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| q2 other q2_other | June 2026 / shared | 316.47 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| h1 acquisitions h1_acquisitions | June 2026 / shared | 65.05 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Cash plus marketable securities liquidity | June 2026 / shared | 2,659.76 USD_millions | derived: Excludes restricted cash and undrawn facilities. Formula: sum(cash, marketable_securities). |
| Q3 revenue low q3_revenue_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,700.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Q3 revenue high q3_revenue_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,740.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| Q3 revenue endpoint sum q3_revenue_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 3,440.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_revenue_low, q3_revenue_high). |
| Q3 revenue midpoint q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,720.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_revenue_sum, two). |
| Q3 EBITDA low q3_ebitda_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 300.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Q3 EBITDA high q3_ebitda_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 350.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Q3 EBITDA endpoint sum q3_ebitda_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 650.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_ebitda_low, q3_ebitda_high). |
| Q3 EBITDA midpoint q3_ebitda | 2026Q3 / shared | 325.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_ebitda_sum, two). |
| FY2026 infrastructure low fy26_infra_low | FY2026 / shared | 1,650.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| FY2026 infrastructure high fy26_infra_high | FY2026 / shared | 1,700.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| FY2026 infrastructure endpoint sum fy26_infra_sum | FY2026 / shared | 3,350.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_infra_low, fy26_infra_high). |
| FY2026 infrastructure midpoint fy26_infra | FY2026 / shared | 1,675.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_infra_sum, two). |
| FY2026 adjusted operating expense outlook fy26_opex | FY2026 / shared | 2,750.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Approximate full-year cost outlook; already includes Specs investment. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| FY2026 SBC outlook fy26_sbc | FY2026 / shared | 1,050.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Approximate company outlook; treated as total SBC including actual H1 restructuring SBC. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Advertising revenue downside_2026q3_ad_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,330.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 330.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,660.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_ad_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2026q3_infrastructure | 2026Q3 / downside | 447.65 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q3 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2026q3_other_cogs | 2026Q3 / downside | 282.20 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2026q3_adj_cogs | 2026Q3 / downside | 729.85 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_infrastructure, downside_2026q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | 930.15 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2026q3_cogs_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2026q3_cogs_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q3 / downside | 14.00 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cogs_sbc, downside_2026q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | 916.15 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2026q3_cash_opex | 2026Q3 / downside | 695.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / downside | 235.15 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll | 2026Q3 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q3 / downside | 327.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc, downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | -92.24 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / downside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 60.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 104.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | 131.15 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | 76.15 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2026q3_notes26_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2026q3_repay_2026 | 2026Q3 / downside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2026q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2026q3_notes27_weight | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2026q3_repay_2027 | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2026q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / downside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_repay_2026, downside_2026q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2026q3_capital_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 147.01 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_buybacks, downside_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / downside | -70.86 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue downside_2026q4_ad_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,540.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 365.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,905.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_ad_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2026q4_infrastructure | 2026Q4 / downside | 447.65 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2026q4_other_cogs | 2026Q4 / downside | 323.85 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2026q4_adj_cogs | 2026Q4 / downside | 771.50 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_infrastructure, downside_2026q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,133.50 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2026q4_cogs_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 11.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2026q4_cogs_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 3.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q4 / downside | 14.70 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cogs_sbc, downside_2026q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,118.80 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2026q4_cash_opex | 2026Q4 / downside | 765.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / downside | 368.50 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll | 2026Q4 / downside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q4 / downside | 329.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc, downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 39.11 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / downside | -25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 23.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 345.50 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 59.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | 286.50 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2026q4_notes26_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2026q4_repay_2026 | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2026q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2026q4_notes27_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2026q4_repay_2027 | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2026q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_repay_2026, downside_2026q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2026q4_capital_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_buybacks, downside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / downside | 236.50 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue downside_2027q1_ad_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,210.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 380.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,590.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ad_revenue, downside_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2027q1_infrastructure | 2027Q1 / downside | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2027q1_other_cogs | 2027Q1 / downside | 270.30 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2027q1_adj_cogs | 2027Q1 / downside | 720.30 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_infrastructure, downside_2027q1_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 869.70 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2027q1_cogs_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 3.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.40 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q1_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 854.30 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2027q1_cash_opex | 2027Q1 / downside | 730.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / downside | 139.70 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 275.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll | 2027Q1 / downside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q1 / downside | 343.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | -203.30 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / downside | 22.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 110.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 167.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | -27.30 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 63.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -90.30 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2027q1_notes26_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2027q1_repay_2026 | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q1_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2027q1_notes27_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2027q1_repay_2027 | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q1_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_repay_2026, downside_2027q1_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2027q1_capital_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_buybacks, downside_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / downside | -90.30 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue downside_2027q2_ad_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,370.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 390.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,760.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_ad_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2027q2_infrastructure | 2027Q2 / downside | 460.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2027q2_other_cogs | 2027Q2 / downside | 299.20 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2027q2_adj_cogs | 2027Q2 / downside | 759.20 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_infrastructure, downside_2027q2_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,000.80 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2027q2_cogs_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 3.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q2 / downside | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q2_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 984.70 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2027q2_cash_opex | 2027Q2 / downside | 750.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / downside | 250.80 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 284.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 54.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q2 / downside | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | -99.20 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / downside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 102.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 148.80 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 67.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | 81.80 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2027q2_notes26_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2027q2_repay_2026 | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q2_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2027q2_notes27_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2027q2_repay_2027 | 2027Q2 / downside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q2_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / downside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_repay_2026, downside_2027q2_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2027q2_capital_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_buybacks, downside_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / downside | -24.52 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue downside_2027q3_ad_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,430.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 405.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,835.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_ad_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2027q3_infrastructure | 2027Q3 / downside | 472.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2027q3_other_cogs | 2027Q3 / downside | 311.95 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2027q3_adj_cogs | 2027Q3 / downside | 783.95 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_infrastructure, downside_2027q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,051.05 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2027q3_cogs_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 3.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q3 / downside | 16.80 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,034.25 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2027q3_cash_opex | 2027Q3 / downside | 765.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / downside | 286.05 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 293.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 56.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q3 / downside | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | -74.95 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / downside | 26.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 60.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 121.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 165.05 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 71.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | 94.05 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2027q3_notes26_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2027q3_repay_2026 | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2027q3_notes27_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2027q3_repay_2027 | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_repay_2026, downside_2027q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2027q3_capital_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_buybacks, downside_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / downside | 94.05 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue downside_2027q4_ad_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,630.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue downside_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 430.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,060.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_ad_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs downside_2027q4_infrastructure | 2027Q4 / downside | 486.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue downside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue downside_2027q4_other_cogs | 2027Q4 / downside | 350.20 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue downside_2027q4_adj_cogs | 2027Q4 / downside | 836.20 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_infrastructure, downside_2027q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,223.80 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A downside_2027q4_cogs_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q4 / downside | 17.50 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc, downside_2027q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,206.30 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs downside_2027q4_cash_opex | 2027Q4 / downside | 800.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / downside | 423.80 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 302.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 58.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above downside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q4 / downside | 372.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 51.80 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / downside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use downside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / downside | -25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments downside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 383.80 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 75.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 308.80 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax downside_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing downside_2027q4_notes26_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal downside_2027q4_repay_2026 | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, downside_2027q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing downside_2027q4_notes27_weight | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal downside_2027q4_repay_2027 | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, downside_2027q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal downside_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_repay_2026, downside_2027q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal downside_2027q4_capital_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_buybacks, downside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / downside | 308.80 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_capital_uses). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 6,692.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_ad_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 5,395.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, downside_2026q3_ad_revenue, downside_2026q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_other_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 1,296.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, downside_2026q3_other_revenue, downside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 3,829.61 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | -298.29 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / downside | 1,086.60 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 979.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 210.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | 769.19 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) downside_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / downside | 750.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, downside_2026q3_buybacks, downside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) downside_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / downside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, downside_2026q3_debt_principal, downside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / downside | -28.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 7,245.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_ad_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 5,640.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ad_revenue, downside_2027q2_ad_revenue, downside_2027q3_ad_revenue, downside_2027q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_other_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 1,605.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_other_revenue, downside_2027q2_other_revenue, downside_2027q3_other_revenue, downside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 4,079.55 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | -325.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / downside | 1,100.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 670.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 276.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | 394.35 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) downside_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_buybacks, downside_2027q2_buybacks, downside_2027q3_buybacks, downside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) downside_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / downside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_debt_principal, downside_2027q2_debt_principal, downside_2027q3_debt_principal, downside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / downside | 288.03 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Advertising revenue base_2026q3_ad_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,380.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 340.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,720.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_ad_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2026q3_infrastructure | 2026Q3 / base | 435.15 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q3 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2026q3_other_cogs | 2026Q3 / base | 283.80 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2026q3_adj_cogs | 2026Q3 / base | 718.95 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_infrastructure, base_2026q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 1,001.05 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2026q3_cogs_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2026q3_cogs_da | 2026Q3 / base | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2026q3_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q3 / base | 14.00 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cogs_sbc, base_2026q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 987.05 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2026q3_cash_opex | 2026Q3 / base | 676.05 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / base | 325.00 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2026q3_sbc_payroll | 2026Q3 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2026q3_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q3 / base | 327.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc, base_2026q3_sbc_payroll, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | -2.39 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2026q3_net_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / base | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 79.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_sbc_payroll, base_2026q3_net_cash_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 246.00 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | 191.00 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2026q3_notes26_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2026q3_repay_2026 | 2026Q3 / base | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2026q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2026q3_notes27_weight | 2026Q3 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2026q3_repay_2027 | 2026Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2026q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / base | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_repay_2026, base_2026q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2026q3_capital_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 247.01 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_buybacks, base_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / base | -56.01 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue base_2026q4_ad_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1,650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 2,050.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_ad_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2026q4_infrastructure | 2026Q4 / base | 435.15 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2026q4_other_cogs | 2026Q4 / base | 338.25 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2026q4_adj_cogs | 2026Q4 / base | 773.40 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_infrastructure, base_2026q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 1,276.60 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2026q4_cogs_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 11.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2026q4_cogs_da | 2026Q4 / base | 3.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2026q4_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q4 / base | 14.70 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cogs_sbc, base_2026q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 1,261.90 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2026q4_cash_opex | 2026Q4 / base | 747.28 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / base | 529.32 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2026q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2026q4_sbc_payroll | 2026Q4 / base | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2026q4_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q4 / base | 329.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc, base_2026q4_sbc_payroll, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 199.94 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2026q4_net_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / base | -80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | -32.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_sbc_payroll, base_2026q4_net_cash_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 561.32 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 59.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 502.32 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2026q4_notes26_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2026q4_repay_2026 | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2026q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2026q4_notes27_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2026q4_repay_2027 | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2026q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_repay_2026, base_2026q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2026q4_capital_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_buybacks, base_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / base | 302.32 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue base_2027q1_ad_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,340.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 420.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,760.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ad_revenue, base_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2027q1_infrastructure | 2027Q1 / base | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2027q1_other_cogs | 2027Q1 / base | 290.40 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2027q1_adj_cogs | 2027Q1 / base | 740.40 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_infrastructure, base_2027q1_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 1,019.60 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2027q1_cogs_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2027q1_cogs_da | 2027Q1 / base | 3.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2027q1_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q1 / base | 15.40 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cogs_sbc, base_2027q1_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 1,004.20 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q1_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2027q1_cash_opex | 2027Q1 / base | 722.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / base | 297.60 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q1_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 275.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2027q1_sbc_payroll | 2027Q1 / base | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2027q1_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q1 / base | 343.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_sbc_payroll, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | -45.40 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2027q1_net_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / base | 22.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / base | 90.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 147.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_sbc_payroll, base_2027q1_net_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 150.60 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 63.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 87.60 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2027q1_notes26_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2027q1_repay_2026 | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q1_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2027q1_notes27_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2027q1_repay_2027 | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q1_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_repay_2026, base_2027q1_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2027q1_capital_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_buybacks, base_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / base | -92.40 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue base_2027q2_ad_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,510.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,960.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_ad_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2027q2_infrastructure | 2027Q2 / base | 467.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2027q2_other_cogs | 2027Q2 / base | 323.40 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2027q2_adj_cogs | 2027Q2 / base | 790.40 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_infrastructure, base_2027q2_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 1,169.60 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2027q2_cogs_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 12.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2027q2_cogs_da | 2027Q2 / base | 3.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2027q2_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q2 / base | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cogs_sbc, base_2027q2_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 1,153.50 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q2_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2027q2_cash_opex | 2027Q2 / base | 745.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / base | 424.60 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q2_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 284.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2027q2_sbc_payroll | 2027Q2 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 54.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2027q2_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q2 / base | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_sbc_payroll, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 74.60 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2027q2_net_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / base | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 77.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_sbc_payroll, base_2027q2_net_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 347.60 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 67.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 280.60 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2027q2_notes26_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2027q2_repay_2026 | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q2_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2027q2_notes27_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2027q2_repay_2027 | 2027Q2 / base | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q2_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / base | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_repay_2026, base_2027q2_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2027q2_capital_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 286.32 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_buybacks, base_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / base | -5.72 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue base_2027q3_ad_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 1,590.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 485.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 2,075.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_ad_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2027q3_infrastructure | 2027Q3 / base | 487.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2027q3_other_cogs | 2027Q3 / base | 342.38 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2027q3_adj_cogs | 2027Q3 / base | 829.38 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_infrastructure, base_2027q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 1,245.62 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2027q3_cogs_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2027q3_cogs_da | 2027Q3 / base | 3.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2027q3_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q3 / base | 16.80 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cogs_sbc, base_2027q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 1,228.83 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2027q3_cash_opex | 2027Q3 / base | 770.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / base | 475.62 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 293.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2027q3_sbc_payroll | 2027Q3 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 56.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2027q3_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q3 / base | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_sbc_payroll, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 114.62 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2027q3_net_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / base | 26.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 91.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_sbc_payroll, base_2027q3_net_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 384.62 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 71.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 313.62 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2027q3_notes26_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2027q3_repay_2026 | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2027q3_notes27_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2027q3_repay_2027 | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_repay_2026, base_2027q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2027q3_capital_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_buybacks, base_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / base | 133.62 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue base_2027q4_ad_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,860.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue base_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 535.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 2,395.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_ad_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs base_2027q4_infrastructure | 2027Q4 / base | 512.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue base_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 16.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue base_2027q4_other_cogs | 2027Q4 / base | 395.18 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue base_2027q4_adj_cogs | 2027Q4 / base | 907.17 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_infrastructure, base_2027q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 1,487.83 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll base_2027q4_cogs_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 13.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A base_2027q4_cogs_da | 2027Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments base_2027q4_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q4 / base | 17.50 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cogs_sbc, base_2027q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 1,470.33 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs base_2027q4_cash_opex | 2027Q4 / base | 817.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / base | 670.83 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, base_2027q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 302.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards base_2027q4_sbc_payroll | 2027Q4 / base | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 58.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above base_2027q4_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q4 / base | 372.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_sbc_payroll, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 298.83 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income base_2027q4_net_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / base | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use base_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / base | -75.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments base_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | -10.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_sbc_payroll, base_2027q4_net_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 680.83 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 75.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 605.83 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax base_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing base_2027q4_notes26_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal base_2027q4_repay_2026 | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, base_2027q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing base_2027q4_notes27_weight | 2027Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal base_2027q4_repay_2027 | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, base_2027q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal base_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_repay_2026, base_2027q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal base_2027q4_capital_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 180.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_buybacks, base_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal base_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / base | 425.83 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_capital_uses). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 6,897.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) base_fy2026_ad_revenue | FY2026 / base | 5,555.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, base_2026q3_ad_revenue, base_2026q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) base_fy2026_other_revenue | FY2026 / base | 1,341.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, base_2026q3_other_revenue, base_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 4,043.61 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | -47.62 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / base | 1,337.27 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 1,310.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 210.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 1,099.87 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) base_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / base | 1,000.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, base_2026q3_buybacks, base_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) base_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / base | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, base_2026q3_debt_principal, base_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / base | 51.89 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, base_2026q3_cash_after_claims, base_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 8,190.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) base_fy2027_ad_revenue | FY2027 / base | 6,300.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ad_revenue, base_2027q2_ad_revenue, base_2027q3_ad_revenue, base_2027q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) base_fy2027_other_revenue | FY2027 / base | 1,890.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_other_revenue, base_2027q2_other_revenue, base_2027q3_other_revenue, base_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 4,856.85 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 442.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / base | 1,868.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 1,563.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 276.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 1,287.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) base_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / base | 720.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_buybacks, base_2027q2_buybacks, base_2027q3_buybacks, base_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) base_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / base | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_debt_principal, base_2027q2_debt_principal, base_2027q3_debt_principal, base_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / base | 461.33 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2026q3_ad_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,405.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2026q3_other_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 350.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,755.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_ad_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2026q3_infrastructure | 2026Q3 / upside | 439.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q3 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2026q3_other_cogs | 2026Q3 / upside | 280.80 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2026q3_adj_cogs | 2026Q3 / upside | 719.80 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_infrastructure, upside_2026q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,035.20 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2026q3_cogs_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2026q3_cogs_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 3.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q3 / upside | 14.00 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cogs_sbc, upside_2026q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,021.20 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2026q3_cash_opex | 2026Q3 / upside | 680.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / upside | 355.20 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll | 2026Q3 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q3 / upside | 327.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc, upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 27.81 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / upside | 18.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 84.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 271.20 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | 216.20 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2026q3_buybacks | 2026Q3 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2026q3_notes26_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2026q3_repay_2026 | 2026Q3 / upside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2026q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2026q3_notes27_weight | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2026q3_repay_2027 | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2026q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / upside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_repay_2026, upside_2026q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2026q3_capital_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 297.01 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_buybacks, upside_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims | 2026Q3 / upside | -80.81 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2026q4_ad_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,710.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2026q4_other_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 425.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,135.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_ad_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2026q4_infrastructure | 2026Q4 / upside | 442.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2026q4_other_cogs | 2026Q4 / upside | 341.60 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2026q4_adj_cogs | 2026Q4 / upside | 783.60 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_infrastructure, upside_2026q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,351.40 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2026q4_cogs_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 11.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2026q4_cogs_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 3.20 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments | 2026Q4 / upside | 14.70 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cogs_sbc, upside_2026q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,336.70 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2026q4_cash_opex | 2026Q4 / upside | 755.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / upside | 596.40 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 268.39 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll | 2026Q4 / upside | 11.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments | 2026Q4 / upside | 329.39 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc, upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 267.01 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / upside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 17.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / upside | -70.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | -22.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 618.40 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 59.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 559.40 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2026q4_buybacks | 2026Q4 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2026q4_notes26_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2026q4_repay_2026 | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2026q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2026q4_notes27_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2026q4_repay_2027 | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2026q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_repay_2026, upside_2026q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2026q4_capital_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_buybacks, upside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims | 2026Q4 / upside | 309.40 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2027q1_ad_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,420.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2027q1_other_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 465.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,885.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ad_revenue, upside_2027q1_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2027q1_infrastructure | 2027Q1 / upside | 470.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2027q1_other_cogs | 2027Q1 / upside | 301.60 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2027q1_adj_cogs | 2027Q1 / upside | 771.60 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_infrastructure, upside_2027q1_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,113.40 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2027q1_cogs_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 3.40 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q1 / upside | 15.40 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q1_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,098.00 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2027q1_cash_opex | 2027Q1 / upside | 740.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / upside | 373.40 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 275.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll | 2027Q1 / upside | 16.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 52.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q1 / upside | 343.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 30.40 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / upside | 22.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 19.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 157.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 216.40 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 63.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 153.40 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2027q1_buybacks | 2027Q1 / upside | 240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2027q1_notes26_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2027q1_repay_2026 | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q1_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2027q1_notes27_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2027q1_repay_2027 | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q1_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_repay_2026, upside_2027q1_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2027q1_capital_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 240.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_buybacks, upside_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims | 2027Q1 / upside | -86.60 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2027q2_ad_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,640.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2027q2_other_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 520.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 2,160.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_ad_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2027q2_infrastructure | 2027Q2 / upside | 498.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2027q2_other_cogs | 2027Q2 / upside | 345.60 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2027q2_adj_cogs | 2027Q2 / upside | 843.60 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_infrastructure, upside_2027q2_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,316.40 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 12.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2027q2_cogs_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 3.60 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q2 / upside | 16.10 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q2_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,300.30 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2027q2_cash_opex | 2027Q2 / upside | 775.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / upside | 541.40 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 284.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll | 2027Q2 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 54.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q2 / upside | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 191.40 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / upside | 24.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 21.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 87.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 454.40 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 67.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 387.40 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2027q2_buybacks | 2027Q2 / upside | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2027q2_notes26_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2027q2_repay_2026 | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q2_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2027q2_notes27_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2027q2_repay_2027 | 2027Q2 / upside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q2_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / upside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_repay_2026, upside_2027q2_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2027q2_capital_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 366.32 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_buybacks, upside_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims | 2027Q2 / upside | 21.08 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2027q3_ad_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,770.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2027q3_other_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 585.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 2,355.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_ad_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2027q3_infrastructure | 2027Q3 / upside | 530.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2027q3_other_cogs | 2027Q3 / upside | 376.80 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2027q3_adj_cogs | 2027Q3 / upside | 906.80 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_infrastructure, upside_2027q3_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,448.20 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2027q3_cogs_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 3.80 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q3 / upside | 16.80 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q3_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,431.40 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2027q3_cash_opex | 2027Q3 / upside | 820.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / upside | 628.20 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 293.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll | 2027Q3 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 56.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q3 / upside | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 267.20 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / upside | 26.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 23.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 101.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 527.20 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 71.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 456.20 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2027q3_buybacks | 2027Q3 / upside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2027q3_notes26_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2027q3_repay_2026 | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q3_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2027q3_notes27_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2027q3_repay_2027 | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q3_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_repay_2026, upside_2027q3_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2027q3_capital_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 280.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_buybacks, upside_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims | 2027Q3 / upside | 176.20 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_capital_uses). |
| Advertising revenue upside_2027q4_ad_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 2,100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other product revenue upside_2027q4_other_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 670.00 USD_millions | assumption: Subscriptions and other products in one perimeter; no separately added SPECS preorder/deposit revenue. |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 2,770.00 USD_millions | derived: Advertising plus other product revenue. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_ad_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| Infrastructure service costs upside_2027q4_infrastructure | 2027Q4 / upside | 570.00 USD_millions | assumption: Hosting and related operating expense, not company-owned capex. Base H2 reconciles to FY2026 midpoint after H1. |
| Other cost of revenue / revenue upside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Other cost of revenue upside_2027q4_other_cogs | 2027Q4 / upside | 443.20 USD_millions | derived: Content and partner costs; scenario broadly follows management 16%-17% FY2026 range. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_cogs_ratio). |
| Adjusted cost of revenue upside_2027q4_adj_cogs | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,013.20 USD_millions | derived: No second hardware cost assumption added outside this consolidated cost scenario. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_infrastructure, upside_2027q4_other_cogs). |
| Adjusted gross profit upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,756.80 USD_millions | derived: Before allocated equity compensation and depreciation. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_adj_cogs). |
| COGS SBC and related payroll upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 13.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS D&A upside_2027q4_cogs_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| COGS noncash and payroll adjustments upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments | 2027Q4 / upside | 17.50 USD_millions | derived: These are allocations of total expense included in the operating-income bridge. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc, upside_2027q4_cogs_da). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,739.30 USD_millions | derived: No new COGS restructuring charge assumed. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_cogs_adjustments). |
| Adjusted operating expense including Specs upside_2027q4_cash_opex | 2027Q4 / upside | 885.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / upside | 871.80 USD_millions | derived: Specs is consolidated and already in the expense budget. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_cash_opex). |
| Total equity compensation expense upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 302.00 USD_millions | assumption: H2 base preserves approximately $1.05B full-year SBC after actual H1 $513.229M; all 2027 is desk. |
| Cash payroll taxes on equity awards upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll | 2027Q4 / upside | 12.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total D&A upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 58.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Restructuring excluding SBC/D&A counted above upside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: Remaining April-plan charges/liabilities were immaterial at June 30; no repeat of full H1 charge. |
| SBC payroll D&A and restructuring upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments | 2027Q4 / upside | 372.00 USD_millions | derived: No double deduction of restructuring SBC or asset depreciation. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_incremental_restructuring). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 499.80 USD_millions | derived: No new impairment or unannounced restructuring. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_gaap_adjustments). |
| Cash debt interest less investment income upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / upside | 28.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk net interest includes debt coupons and investment yield; not noncash issuance-cost amortization. |
| Cash income tax upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Working capital and other cash use upside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / upside | -60.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash operating adjustments upside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | derived: Equity-award payroll tax consumes cash although excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_sbc_payroll, upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 866.80 USD_millions | derived: Working-capital timing is separate from accounting earnings. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash PP&E upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 75.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less PP&E upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 791.80 USD_millions | derived: Before discretionary repurchases. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Share repurchases including tax upside_2027q4_buybacks | 2027Q4 / upside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk capital-allocation assumption; no guarantee shares outstanding decline and no commitment to a 2027 program. |
| 2026 principal timing upside_2027q4_notes26_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| August 2026 note principal upside_2027q4_repay_2026 | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: August 1 repayment follows June balance sheet and is described in the subsequent event/remarks. Formula: multiply(notes_2026, upside_2027q4_notes26_weight). |
| 2027 principal timing upside_2027q4_notes27_weight | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| May 2027 note principal upside_2027q4_repay_2027 | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: May 1, 2027 maturity; assumes cash settlement. Formula: multiply(notes_2027, upside_2027q4_notes27_weight). |
| Scheduled note principal upside_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Other debt maturities fall beyond FY2027. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_repay_2026, upside_2027q4_repay_2027). |
| Repurchases and principal upside_2027q4_capital_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 300.00 USD_millions | derived: Financing uses, not operating expenses. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_buybacks, upside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and note principal upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims | 2027Q4 / upside | 491.80 USD_millions | derived: Before acquisitions and strategic investments. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_capital_uses). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 7,017.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_ad_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 5,640.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_ad_revenue, upside_2026q3_ad_revenue, upside_2026q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_other_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 1,376.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_other_revenue, upside_2026q3_other_revenue, upside_2026q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 4,152.56 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 49.66 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / upside | 1,434.55 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 1,392.59 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 210.45 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 1,182.15 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) upside_fy2026_buybacks | FY2026 / upside | 1,100.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_buybacks, upside_2026q3_buybacks, upside_2026q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) upside_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / upside | 47.01 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, upside_2026q3_debt_principal, upside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_claims | FY2026 / upside | 34.17 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2026q4_cash_after_claims). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 9,170.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| Advertising revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_ad_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 6,930.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ad_revenue, upside_2027q2_ad_revenue, upside_2027q3_ad_revenue, upside_2027q4_ad_revenue). |
| Other product revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_other_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 2,240.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_other_revenue, upside_2027q2_other_revenue, upside_2027q3_other_revenue, upside_2027q4_other_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 5,569.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 988.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / upside | 2,414.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 2,064.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash PP&E ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 276.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less cash PP&E ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 1,788.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Share repurchases and related tax ($M) upside_fy2027_buybacks | FY2027 / upside | 1,080.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_buybacks, upside_2027q2_buybacks, upside_2027q3_buybacks, upside_2027q4_buybacks). |
| Scheduled note principal ($M) upside_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / upside | 106.32 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_debt_principal, upside_2027q2_debt_principal, upside_2027q3_debt_principal, upside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after repurchases and principal ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims | FY2027 / upside | 602.48 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims). |
Model boundaries
- Q3 revenue/EBITDA and FY2026 cost outlook are management guidance. Q4 revenue, quarterly timing and all FY2027 amounts are desk scenarios, not external consensus.
- Other revenue is not all subscription revenue. No DAU times total-company ARPU plus subscriptions double count. No forecast paid subscriber count is implied.
- SPECS launch article is dated September 16; the newsroom index shows September 17. Reviewed September 19. $2,195 preorder price and $200 refundable deposit are not recognized sales; shipping is expected later in fall. No separately invented hardware revenue is added to the other-revenue scenario.
- Specs Inc. remains wholly owned and consolidated. Its investment was included in management operating expense outlook. A standalone unit is not a financial deconsolidation.
- FY2026 SBC outlook of approximately $1.05B is treated as full-year total expense for this bridge; payroll taxes are additional. H1 restructuring SBC and D&A are removed from the incremental restructuring deduction.
- Future repurchases are optional desk assumptions, not guaranteed authorization use. FCF does not measure cash retained after offsetting equity dilution. No EPS, valuation or share-count roll-forward.
- Cash after repurchases/principal excludes acquisitions, strategic investments and other financing uses. Holiday quote freshness and news review are required separately before any promotional post.
Growth beyond ads, with the cost of dilution visible
Can faster other-product revenue and advertising recovery fund infrastructure, Specs and shareholder cash claims?
H1 revenue was $3.128B, including $2.526B advertising and $601.8M other revenue. Adjusted EBITDA $482.9M contrasts with GAAP operating loss $245.2M. CFO $503.0M less PP&E $96.4M produced $406.5M FCF, below $601.0M repurchase cash including tax, before acquisitions. June cash and securities totaled $2.660B against $3.468B debt face. H1 SBC $513.2M includes $26.5M restructuring SBC, and D&A includes $1.3M restructuring depreciation; the GAAP bridge prevents duplication. Q3 outlook is $1.70B-$1.74B revenue and $300M-$350M adjusted EBITDA. FY2026 infrastructure cost is $1.65B-$1.70B, adjusted operating expense about $2.75B and SBC about $1.05B. Specs investment is already inside operating guidance. The September product announcement offers $2,195 preorders with $200 refundable deposits and expects fall shipping; these terms do not establish recognized sales. August $47.0M note repayment and May 2027 $106.3M maturity sit below CFO.
The competing explanation
Paid-product momentum may mask weaker ad monetization or low-margin product mix. Hardware adoption may require sustained spending, while buybacks can consume the cash reported as FCF without materially reducing share count.
Risks to track
- Advertising budgets and platform competition affect monetization.
- Infrastructure and content/partner cost can outgrow sales.
- SPECS shipment timing, demand and product margins remain uncertain.
- Equity grants and payroll taxes remain economic costs.
- Repurchase timing can exceed internally generated cash.
- The chief business officer plans to leave December 31, adding execution transition risk.
Next checkpoints
- Q3 earnings and FY2026 budgets · Next quarterly release; date unconfirmed (estimated). Check revenue, EBITDA, hosting costs and any change to the consolidated Specs budget.
- SPECS product conversion · October 1 demos; shipping expected later in fall (estimated). Check actual shipments, recognized revenue, returns and margin rather than refundable deposits.
- Capital allocation and leadership · Each quarter; CBO departure December 31 (estimated). Track repurchase cash, share count and transition responsibilities.
Data coverage and open work
- Q3 revenue/EBITDA and FY2026 cost outlook are management guidance. Q4 revenue, quarterly timing and all FY2027 amounts are desk scenarios, not external consensus.
- Other revenue is not all subscription revenue. No DAU times total-company ARPU plus subscriptions double count. No forecast paid subscriber count is implied.
- SPECS launch article is dated September 16; the newsroom index shows September 17. Reviewed September 19. $2,195 preorder price and $200 refundable deposit are not recognized sales; shipping is expected later in fall. No separately invented hardware revenue is added to the other-revenue scenario.
- Specs Inc. remains wholly owned and consolidated. Its investment was included in management operating expense outlook. A standalone unit is not a financial deconsolidation.
- FY2026 SBC outlook of approximately $1.05B is treated as full-year total expense for this bridge; payroll taxes are additional. H1 restructuring SBC and D&A are removed from the incremental restructuring deduction.
- Future repurchases are optional desk assumptions, not guaranteed authorization use. FCF does not measure cash retained after offsetting equity dilution. No EPS, valuation or share-count roll-forward.
- Cash after repurchases/principal excludes acquisitions, strategic investments and other financing uses. Holiday quote freshness and news review are required separately before any promotional post.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, quiet volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -3.3 | +0.2 | +3.5 | 54% |
| 5 sessions | -8.2 | +0.5 | +10.3 | 55% |
| 10 sessions | -11.7 | +0.4 | +15.7 | 52% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.