ALPHAFORGE RESEARCH · COMPANY FILE · AI INFRASTRUCTURE & POWER

$SMCI

Super Micro Computer, Inc. · Nasdaq · SIC 3571 · CIK 1375365 · revision 4 as of 2026-09-19

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Business

Supermicro designs and integrates servers, rack-scale AI systems, storage and cooling solutions. Sales depend on component availability, customer acceptance and deployment schedules. Large systems carry substantial inventory and receivables. Working capital can therefore require financing even when reported earnings grow, and preferred stock, convertible notes and bank loans create claims ahead of common shareholders.

Three drivers

  1. Delivered systems, customer acceptance and product mix
  2. Gross margin and engineering/compliance expense
  3. Inventory, receivables, customer funding and capital claims

Thesis

Our view

The business can grow quickly with AI infrastructure demand, but the central test is whether system profits finance the inventory and credit needed to deliver that growth. FY2026 earnings were positive while CFO was deeply negative. New orders, higher ending cash and financing proceeds cannot substitute for recurring cash generation.

What changes it

Track sales and gross margin alongside sequential inventory, receivables and customer advances. Improve confidence if growth funds itself after capex and senior claims; reduce it if turnover worsens or current bank obligations require continuing outside capital.

Scenario ranges

Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.

Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)

Fiscal quarter2025Q1
2024-09-30
2025Q2
2024-12-31
2025Q3
2025-03-31
2025Q4
2025-06-30
2026Q1
2025-09-30
2026Q2
2025-12-31
2026Q3
2026-03-31
2026Q4
2026-06-30
Revenue ($M)5,937.315,678.024,599.935,756.9†45,017.8112,682.5210,243.0311,119.8†4
Gross profit ($M)775.65670.06440.27544.1†8467.45798.661,018.771,942.6†8
Operating income ($M)509.29368.610146.811228.4†12182.39474.310625.9111,488.1†12
Net income ($M)424.313320.614108.815195.2†16168.313400.614483.4151,178.2†16
EPS, diluted ($)0.67170.51180.17190.26170.60180.7219
Diluted shares (M)639.120636.021621.822663.220694.021692.222
Cash ($M)2,088.7231,430.0242,536.1255,169.9264,196.9274,091.1281,290.3297,521.526
Long-term debt ($M)
Cash from operations ($M)408.930-239.8†31626.8†32863.6†33-917.530-23.9†31-6,615.4†32747.0†33
Capex ($M)44.33427.5†3532.7†3622.7†3732.33421.2†3580.3†3628.2†37
Free cash flow ($M)364.6†38-267.3†39594.1†40840.9†41-949.8†38-45.1†39-6,695.7†40718.7†41

† derived (Q4 = fiscal year minus the first three quarters; year-to-date cash flows differenced; FCF = CFO − capex). Superscripts are the provenance notes below.

Estimates · base scenario

PeriodRevenue ($M)EPS ($)As ofBasis
2027Q115,000.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q216,050.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q317,655.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.
2027Q419,795.02026-09-19Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance.

AI system delivery must finance inventory and senior claims

Operating scenarios · reviewed 2026-09-19 · USD millions unless labeled otherwise · our assumptions, not consensus

Anchor FY2027 sales and Q1 to management ranges, then explicitly allocate remaining quarters. FY2028 is a desk expansion scenario. Model gross margin, operating expense and stock compensation independently. Roll receivables, inventory and payables from June balances using editable quarter-end turnover assumptions. Separate net deferred-revenue customer funding from cash before that funding. Deduct capex, preferred cash dividends and employee withholding; debt principal and new financing are outside the measure.

Reported anchors and guidance

MeasurePeriodValueBasis
FY2027 revenue guidance midpointFY202768,500.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint2027Q115,000.00derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast.
FY2026 revenueFY202639,063.07reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 gross profitFY20264,227.25reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 cfoFY2026-6,809.89reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 CFO less PP&EFY2026-6,971.89derived. After severe inventory and receivables funding needs.
FY2026 cash before customer fundingFY2026-8,690.54derived. Removes only net deferred-revenue cash contribution.
FY2026 customer fundingFY20261,880.65reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-31
inventoryJune 202612,895.95reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
receivablesJune 20266,125.41reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
cashJune 20267,521.47reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
loans currentJune 20262,039.77reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
loans longJune 20262,016.37reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
convert carryingJune 20264,664.14reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
preferred faceJune 20264,312.50reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31
Declared September aggregate cash dividend2027Q163.73assumption. Desk aggregate: 4.3125 million June preferred shares times declared $14.7778 per share; assumes unchanged shares through record date. Source · 2026-08-05
FY2026 total financingFY20269,478.75reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-31
receivables soldJune 2026831.67reported. Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Source · 2026-08-31

Downside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Preferred cash dividend ($M)Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2027Q1-3,195.71-3,265.7170.0013,200.001,122.0063.73150.00494.00-3,369.44-3,345.71
2027Q2-728.79-803.7975.0014,124.001,200.5475.47100.00547.94-921.26-828.79
2027Q3-1,445.18-1,525.1880.0015,536.401,320.5975.470.00643.39-1,644.65-1,445.18
2027Q4-2,105.62-2,190.6285.0017,419.601,480.6775.47-100.00778.87-2,312.08-2,005.62
FY2027-7,475.29-7,785.29310.0060,280.005,123.80290.14150.002,464.20-8,247.42-7,625.29
FY20283,131.842,741.84390.0061,485.605,410.73301.880.002,357.532,235.963,131.84

Base scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Preferred cash dividend ($M)Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2027Q1227.03157.0370.0015,000.001,650.0063.73500.001,037.0053.30-272.97
2027Q2459.10384.1075.0016,050.001,765.5075.47500.001,128.50266.63-40.90
2027Q3-150.55-230.5580.0017,655.001,942.0575.47350.001,281.05-350.02-500.55
2027Q4-735.76-820.7685.0019,795.002,177.4575.47150.001,492.45-942.22-885.76
FY2027-200.18-510.18310.0068,500.007,535.00290.141,500.004,939.00-972.31-1,700.18
FY20283,851.083,461.08390.0082,200.009,288.60301.88500.006,308.602,955.213,351.08

Upside scenario

PeriodOperating cash flow proxy ($M)CFO less capex ($M)Cash PP&E purchases ($M)Revenue ($M)GAAP gross profit ($M)Preferred cash dividend ($M)Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)GAAP operating income ($M)Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
2027Q12,368.562,298.5670.0016,200.002,106.0063.73600.001,478.002,194.831,768.56
2027Q21,161.151,086.1575.0017,334.002,253.4275.47600.001,600.82968.68561.15
2027Q3662.45582.4580.0019,067.402,478.7675.47450.001,801.56462.98212.45
2027Q4204.09119.0985.0021,378.602,779.2275.47250.002,077.42-2.38-45.91
FY20274,396.254,086.25310.0073,980.009,617.40290.141,900.006,957.803,624.112,496.25
FY20286,025.845,635.84390.0096,174.0012,791.14301.88750.009,737.945,129.975,275.84
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
Input / calculationPeriod / caseValue / unitEvidence or assumption
FY2026 revenue
fy26_revenue
FY2026 / shared39,063.07
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 gross profit
fy26_gross_profit
FY2026 / shared4,227.25
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 operating income
fy26_operating_income
FY2026 / shared2,770.49
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 net income
fy26_net_income
FY2026 / shared2,230.45
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 cfo
fy26_cfo
FY2026 / shared-6,809.89
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 capex
fy26_capex
FY2026 / shared162.00
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 sbc
fy26_sbc
FY2026 / shared412.12
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 da
fy26_da
FY2026 / shared53.67
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 inventory use
fy26_inventory_use
FY2026 / shared8,876.75
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 receivable use
fy26_receivable_use
FY2026 / shared3,921.87
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 customer funding
fy26_customer_funding
FY2026 / shared1,880.65
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 equity award cash
fy26_equity_award_cash
FY2026 / shared129.88
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 preferred accrual
fy26_preferred_accrual
FY2026 / shared13.09
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 common financing
fy26_common_financing
FY2026 / shared1,406.95
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 preferred financing
fy26_preferred_financing
FY2026 / shared4,231.64
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 total financing
fy26_total_financing
FY2026 / shared9,478.75
USD_millions
reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2026 CFO less PP&E
fy26_fcf
FY2026 / shared-6,971.89
USD_millions
derived: After severe inventory and receivables funding needs. Formula: subtract(fy26_cfo, fy26_capex).
FY2026 cash before customer funding
fy26_cfo_before_funding
FY2026 / shared-8,690.54
USD_millions
derived: Removes only net deferred-revenue cash contribution. Formula: subtract(fy26_cfo, fy26_customer_funding).
cash
cash
June 2026 / shared7,521.47
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
restricted
restricted
June 2026 / shared110.06
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
receivables
receivables
June 2026 / shared6,125.41
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
inventory
inventory
June 2026 / shared12,895.95
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
payables
payables
June 2026 / shared2,247.00
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
loans current
loans_current
June 2026 / shared2,039.77
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
loans long
loans_long
June 2026 / shared2,016.37
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
convert carrying
convert_carrying
June 2026 / shared4,664.14
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
preferred face
preferred_face
June 2026 / shared4,312.50
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
receivables sold
receivables_sold
June 2026 / shared831.67
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
q4 gross profit
q4_gross_profit
June 2026 / shared1,942.63
USD_millions
reported: Preferred face is 4.3125M shares at $1,000; debt amounts are carrying values. Receivables sold is FY2026 flow, not a June balance. Primary source · 2026-08-31
FY2027 revenue guidance low
annual_guide_low
FY2027 / shared65,000.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
FY2027 revenue guidance high
annual_guide_high
FY2027 / shared72,000.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
Midpoint divisor
two
Model / shared200.0%
ratio
assumption: Arithmetic constant.
FY2027 revenue guidance endpoint sum
annual_guide_sum
FY2027 / shared137,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(annual_guide_low, annual_guide_high).
FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint
annual_guide
FY2027 / shared68,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(annual_guide_sum, two).
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance low
q1_guide_low
2027Q1 / shared14,500.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance high
q1_guide_high
2027Q1 / shared15,500.00
USD_millions
management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-11
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance endpoint sum
q1_guide_sum
2027Q1 / shared30,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q1_guide_low, q1_guide_high).
Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance midpoint
q1_guide
2027Q1 / shared15,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q1_guide_sum, two).
Preferred annual dividend rate
preferred_rate
Annual / shared7.0%
ratio
reported: 7% of liquidation preference; future cash/share election and declaration conditions apply. Primary source · 2026-06-15
Initial preferred dividend per share
declared_initial_dividend
September 2026 / shared14.78
USD_per_share
reported: Declared August 5, payable September 1. This is per preferred share, not per depositary share. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Declared September aggregate cash dividend
initial_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / shared63.73
USD_millions
assumption: Desk aggregate: 4.3125 million June preferred shares times declared $14.7778 per share; assumes unchanged shares through record date. Primary source · 2026-08-05
Sales delivery / guidance midpoint
downside_delivery
FY2027 / downside88.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk delivery sensitivity.
FY2027 sales target
downside_annual_target
FY2027 / downside60,280.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses midpoint; no incremental order-book revenue. Formula: multiply(annual_guide, downside_delivery).
Q1 sales target
downside_q1_target
2027Q1 / downside13,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses quarterly midpoint. Formula: multiply(q1_guide, downside_delivery).
Remaining FY2027 sales
downside_remaining
FY2027 / downside47,080.00
USD_millions
derived: Separate Q1 anchor and remaining allocation. Formula: subtract(downside_annual_target, downside_q1_target).
Identity multiplier
downside_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / downside13,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Q1 company guidance scenario. Formula: multiply(downside_q1_target, downside_2027q1_one).
Gross margin
downside_2027q1_gm
2027Q1 / downside8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / downside1,122.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2027q1_cogs
2027Q1 / downside12,078.00
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / downside138.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / downside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2027q1_opex_sbc
2027Q1 / downside128.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2027q1_cashopex
2027Q1 / downside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q1_opex
2027Q1 / downside628.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cashopex, downside_2027q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / downside494.00
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q1_ar_quarter_days
2027Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q1_ar_daily
2027Q1 / downside146.67
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q1_ar_days
2027Q1 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2027q1_ar_balance
2027Q1 / downside8,066.67
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_ar_daily, downside_2027q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2027q1_ar_cash
2027Q1 / downside-1,941.25
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(receivables, downside_2027q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q1_inv_quarter_days
2027Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q1_inv_daily
2027Q1 / downside134.20
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_cogs, downside_2027q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q1_inv_days
2027Q1 / downside11,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2027q1_inv_balance
2027Q1 / downside14,762.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_inv_daily, downside_2027q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2027q1_inv_cash
2027Q1 / downside-1,866.05
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(inventory, downside_2027q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q1_ap_quarter_days
2027Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q1_ap_daily
2027Q1 / downside134.20
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_cogs, downside_2027q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q1_ap_days
2027Q1 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2027q1_ap_balance
2027Q1 / downside2,415.60
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_ap_daily, downside_2027q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2027q1_ap_cash
2027Q1 / downside168.60
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_ap_balance, payables).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / downside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2027q1_profit_cash
2027Q1 / downside648.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_sbc, downside_2027q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / downside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2027q1_other_wc
2027Q1 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / downside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2027q1_cash_after_uses
2027Q1 / downside293.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_profit_cash, downside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding
2027Q1 / downside-3,345.71
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_uses, downside_2027q1_ar_cash, downside_2027q1_inv_cash, downside_2027q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2027q1_customer_funding
2027Q1 / downside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / downside-3,195.71
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / downside70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / downside-3,265.71
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex).
Initial dividend multiplier
downside_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / downside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / downside63.73
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(initial_preferred_cash, downside_2027q1_dividend_factor).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / downside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2027q1_capital_claims
2027Q1 / downside103.73
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_cash, downside_2027q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / downside-3,369.44
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
downside_2027q2_remaining_share
2027Q2 / downside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / downside14,124.00
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_remaining, downside_2027q2_remaining_share).
Gross margin
downside_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / downside8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / downside1,200.54
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2027q2_cogs
2027Q2 / downside12,923.46
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / downside143.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / downside10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2027q2_opex_sbc
2027Q2 / downside132.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2027q2_cashopex
2027Q2 / downside520.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / downside652.60
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cashopex, downside_2027q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / downside547.94
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q2_ar_quarter_days
2027Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q2_ar_daily
2027Q2 / downside156.93
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q2_ar_days
2027Q2 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2027q2_ar_balance
2027Q2 / downside8,631.33
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_ar_daily, downside_2027q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2027q2_ar_cash
2027Q2 / downside-564.67
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_ar_balance, downside_2027q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q2_inv_quarter_days
2027Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q2_inv_daily
2027Q2 / downside143.59
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_cogs, downside_2027q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q2_inv_days
2027Q2 / downside10,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2027q2_inv_balance
2027Q2 / downside15,508.15
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_inv_daily, downside_2027q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2027q2_inv_cash
2027Q2 / downside-746.15
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_inv_balance, downside_2027q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q2_ap_quarter_days
2027Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q2_ap_daily
2027Q2 / downside143.59
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_cogs, downside_2027q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q2_ap_days
2027Q2 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2027q2_ap_balance
2027Q2 / downside2,584.69
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_ap_daily, downside_2027q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2027q2_ap_cash
2027Q2 / downside169.09
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_ap_balance, downside_2027q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / downside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2027q2_profit_cash
2027Q2 / downside707.94
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_sbc, downside_2027q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / downside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / downside395.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2027q2_cash_after_uses
2027Q2 / downside312.94
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_profit_cash, downside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding
2027Q2 / downside-828.79
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_after_uses, downside_2027q2_ar_cash, downside_2027q2_inv_cash, downside_2027q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2027q2_customer_funding
2027Q2 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / downside-728.79
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / downside-803.79
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2027q2_dividend_quarter
2027Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2027q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / downside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2027q2_capital_claims
2027Q2 / downside117.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_preferred_cash, downside_2027q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / downside-921.26
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
downside_2027q3_remaining_share
2027Q3 / downside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / downside15,536.40
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_remaining, downside_2027q3_remaining_share).
Gross margin
downside_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / downside8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / downside1,320.59
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2027q3_cogs
2027Q3 / downside14,215.81
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / downside148.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / downside10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2027q3_opex_sbc
2027Q3 / downside137.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2027q3_cashopex
2027Q3 / downside540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / downside677.20
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cashopex, downside_2027q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / downside643.39
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q3_ar_quarter_days
2027Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q3_ar_daily
2027Q3 / downside172.63
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q3_ar_days
2027Q3 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2027q3_ar_balance
2027Q3 / downside9,494.47
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_ar_daily, downside_2027q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2027q3_ar_cash
2027Q3 / downside-863.13
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_ar_balance, downside_2027q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q3_inv_quarter_days
2027Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q3_inv_daily
2027Q3 / downside157.95
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_cogs, downside_2027q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q3_inv_days
2027Q3 / downside10,600.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2027q3_inv_balance
2027Q3 / downside16,743.06
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_inv_daily, downside_2027q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2027q3_inv_cash
2027Q3 / downside-1,234.91
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_inv_balance, downside_2027q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q3_ap_quarter_days
2027Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q3_ap_daily
2027Q3 / downside157.95
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_cogs, downside_2027q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q3_ap_days
2027Q3 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2027q3_ap_balance
2027Q3 / downside2,843.16
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_ap_daily, downside_2027q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2027q3_ap_cash
2027Q3 / downside258.47
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_ap_balance, downside_2027q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / downside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2027q3_profit_cash
2027Q3 / downside809.39
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_sbc, downside_2027q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / downside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / downside415.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2027q3_cash_after_uses
2027Q3 / downside394.39
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_profit_cash, downside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding
2027Q3 / downside-1,445.18
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_after_uses, downside_2027q3_ar_cash, downside_2027q3_inv_cash, downside_2027q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2027q3_customer_funding
2027Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / downside-1,445.18
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / downside-1,525.18
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2027q3_dividend_quarter
2027Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2027q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / downside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2027q3_capital_claims
2027Q3 / downside119.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_preferred_cash, downside_2027q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / downside-1,644.65
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
downside_2027q4_remaining_share
2027Q4 / downside37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / downside17,419.60
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(downside_remaining, downside_2027q4_remaining_share).
Gross margin
downside_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / downside8.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / downside1,480.67
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2027q4_cogs
2027Q4 / downside15,938.93
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / downside153.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / downside11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2027q4_opex_sbc
2027Q4 / downside141.80
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2027q4_cashopex
2027Q4 / downside560.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / downside701.80
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cashopex, downside_2027q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / downside778.87
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q4_ar_quarter_days
2027Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q4_ar_daily
2027Q4 / downside193.55
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q4_ar_days
2027Q4 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2027q4_ar_balance
2027Q4 / downside10,645.31
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_ar_daily, downside_2027q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2027q4_ar_cash
2027Q4 / downside-1,150.84
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_ar_balance, downside_2027q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q4_inv_quarter_days
2027Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q4_inv_daily
2027Q4 / downside177.10
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_cogs, downside_2027q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q4_inv_days
2027Q4 / downside10,400.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2027q4_inv_balance
2027Q4 / downside18,418.32
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_inv_daily, downside_2027q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2027q4_inv_cash
2027Q4 / downside-1,675.26
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_inv_balance, downside_2027q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2027q4_ap_quarter_days
2027Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2027q4_ap_daily
2027Q4 / downside177.10
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_cogs, downside_2027q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2027q4_ap_days
2027Q4 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2027q4_ap_balance
2027Q4 / downside3,187.79
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_ap_daily, downside_2027q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2027q4_ap_cash
2027Q4 / downside344.63
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_ap_balance, downside_2027q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / downside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2027q4_profit_cash
2027Q4 / downside950.87
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_sbc, downside_2027q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / downside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / downside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / downside475.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2027q4_cash_after_uses
2027Q4 / downside475.87
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_profit_cash, downside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding
2027Q4 / downside-2,005.62
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_after_uses, downside_2027q4_ar_cash, downside_2027q4_inv_cash, downside_2027q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2027q4_customer_funding
2027Q4 / downside-100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / downside-2,105.62
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / downside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / downside-2,190.62
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2027q4_dividend_quarter
2027Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2027q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / downside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2027q4_capital_claims
2027Q4 / downside121.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_preferred_cash, downside_2027q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / downside-2,312.08
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
downside_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
downside_2028q1_season
2028Q1 / downside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / downside14,141.69
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_target, downside_2028q1_growth, downside_2028q1_season).
Gross margin
downside_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / downside8.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / downside1,244.47
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2028q1_cogs
2028Q1 / downside12,897.22
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / downside158.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2028q1_cogs_sbc
2028Q1 / downside11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2028q1_opex_sbc
2028Q1 / downside146.40
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2028q1_cashopex
2028Q1 / downside580.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / downside726.40
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cashopex, downside_2028q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / downside518.07
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q1_ar_quarter_days
2028Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q1_ar_daily
2028Q1 / downside157.13
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q1_ar_days
2028Q1 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2028q1_ar_balance
2028Q1 / downside8,642.14
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_ar_daily, downside_2028q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2028q1_ar_cash
2028Q1 / downside2,003.17
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_ar_balance, downside_2028q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q1_inv_quarter_days
2028Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q1_inv_daily
2028Q1 / downside143.30
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q1_cogs, downside_2028q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q1_inv_days
2028Q1 / downside10,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2028q1_inv_balance
2028Q1 / downside14,616.85
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_inv_daily, downside_2028q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2028q1_inv_cash
2028Q1 / downside3,801.48
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_inv_balance, downside_2028q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q1_ap_quarter_days
2028Q1 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q1_ap_daily
2028Q1 / downside143.30
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q1_cogs, downside_2028q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q1_ap_days
2028Q1 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2028q1_ap_balance
2028Q1 / downside2,579.44
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q1_ap_daily, downside_2028q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2028q1_ap_cash
2028Q1 / downside-608.34
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_ap_balance, downside_2027q4_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / downside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2028q1_profit_cash
2028Q1 / downside696.07
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q1_sbc, downside_2028q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2028q1_interest
2028Q1 / downside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / downside280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / downside445.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_interest, downside_2028q1_cash_tax, downside_2028q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2028q1_cash_after_uses
2028Q1 / downside251.07
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_profit_cash, downside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding
2028Q1 / downside5,447.37
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_uses, downside_2028q1_ar_cash, downside_2028q1_inv_cash, downside_2028q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2028q1_customer_funding
2028Q1 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / downside5,447.37
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / downside90.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / downside5,357.37
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q1_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2028q1_dividend_quarter
2028Q1 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2028q1_preferred_cash
2028Q1 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2028q1_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2028q1_awards
2028Q1 / downside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2028q1_capital_claims
2028Q1 / downside123.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_preferred_cash, downside_2028q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / downside5,233.90
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q1_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
downside_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
downside_2028q2_season
2028Q2 / downside24.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / downside15,063.97
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_target, downside_2028q2_growth, downside_2028q2_season).
Gross margin
downside_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / downside8.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / downside1,325.63
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2028q2_cogs
2028Q2 / downside13,738.34
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / downside163.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2028q2_cogs_sbc
2028Q2 / downside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2028q2_opex_sbc
2028Q2 / downside151.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2028q2_cashopex
2028Q2 / downside600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / downside751.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_cashopex, downside_2028q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / downside574.63
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q2_ar_quarter_days
2028Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q2_ar_daily
2028Q2 / downside167.38
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q2_ar_days
2028Q2 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2028q2_ar_balance
2028Q2 / downside9,205.76
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_ar_daily, downside_2028q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2028q2_ar_cash
2028Q2 / downside-563.62
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_ar_balance, downside_2028q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q2_inv_quarter_days
2028Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q2_inv_daily
2028Q2 / downside152.65
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q2_cogs, downside_2028q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q2_inv_days
2028Q2 / downside10,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2028q2_inv_balance
2028Q2 / downside15,264.82
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_inv_daily, downside_2028q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2028q2_inv_cash
2028Q2 / downside-647.98
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q1_inv_balance, downside_2028q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q2_ap_quarter_days
2028Q2 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q2_ap_daily
2028Q2 / downside152.65
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q2_cogs, downside_2028q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q2_ap_days
2028Q2 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2028q2_ap_balance
2028Q2 / downside2,747.67
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q2_ap_daily, downside_2028q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2028q2_ap_cash
2028Q2 / downside168.22
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_ap_balance, downside_2028q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / downside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2028q2_profit_cash
2028Q2 / downside758.63
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q2_sbc, downside_2028q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2028q2_interest
2028Q2 / downside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / downside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / downside465.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_interest, downside_2028q2_cash_tax, downside_2028q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2028q2_cash_after_uses
2028Q2 / downside293.63
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_profit_cash, downside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding
2028Q2 / downside-749.74
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_cash_after_uses, downside_2028q2_ar_cash, downside_2028q2_inv_cash, downside_2028q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2028q2_customer_funding
2028Q2 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / downside-749.74
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / downside95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / downside-844.74
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2028q2_dividend_quarter
2028Q2 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2028q2_preferred_cash
2028Q2 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2028q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2028q2_awards
2028Q2 / downside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2028q2_capital_claims
2028Q2 / downside125.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q2_preferred_cash, downside_2028q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / downside-970.21
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q2_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
downside_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
downside_2028q3_season
2028Q3 / downside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / downside15,678.83
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_target, downside_2028q3_growth, downside_2028q3_season).
Gross margin
downside_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / downside8.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / downside1,379.74
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2028q3_cogs
2028Q3 / downside14,299.09
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / downside168.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2028q3_cogs_sbc
2028Q3 / downside12.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2028q3_opex_sbc
2028Q3 / downside155.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2028q3_cashopex
2028Q3 / downside620.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / downside775.60
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_cashopex, downside_2028q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / downside604.14
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q3_ar_quarter_days
2028Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q3_ar_daily
2028Q3 / downside174.21
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q3_ar_days
2028Q3 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2028q3_ar_balance
2028Q3 / downside9,581.51
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_ar_daily, downside_2028q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2028q3_ar_cash
2028Q3 / downside-375.75
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_ar_balance, downside_2028q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q3_inv_quarter_days
2028Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q3_inv_daily
2028Q3 / downside158.88
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q3_cogs, downside_2028q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q3_inv_days
2028Q3 / downside10,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2028q3_inv_balance
2028Q3 / downside15,887.88
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_inv_daily, downside_2028q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2028q3_inv_cash
2028Q3 / downside-623.05
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q2_inv_balance, downside_2028q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q3_ap_quarter_days
2028Q3 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q3_ap_daily
2028Q3 / downside158.88
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q3_cogs, downside_2028q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q3_ap_days
2028Q3 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2028q3_ap_balance
2028Q3 / downside2,859.82
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q3_ap_daily, downside_2028q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2028q3_ap_cash
2028Q3 / downside112.15
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_ap_balance, downside_2028q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / downside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2028q3_profit_cash
2028Q3 / downside794.14
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q3_sbc, downside_2028q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2028q3_interest
2028Q3 / downside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / downside320.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / downside485.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_interest, downside_2028q3_cash_tax, downside_2028q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2028q3_cash_after_uses
2028Q3 / downside309.14
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_profit_cash, downside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding
2028Q3 / downside-577.51
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_cash_after_uses, downside_2028q3_ar_cash, downside_2028q3_inv_cash, downside_2028q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2028q3_customer_funding
2028Q3 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / downside-577.51
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / downside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / downside-677.51
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2028q3_dividend_quarter
2028Q3 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2028q3_preferred_cash
2028Q3 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2028q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2028q3_awards
2028Q3 / downside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2028q3_capital_claims
2028Q3 / downside127.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q3_preferred_cash, downside_2028q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / downside-804.98
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q3_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
downside_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / downside102.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
downside_2028q4_season
2028Q4 / downside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
downside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / downside16,601.11
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(downside_annual_target, downside_2028q4_growth, downside_2028q4_season).
Gross margin
downside_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / downside8.8%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
downside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / downside1,460.90
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
downside_2028q4_cogs
2028Q4 / downside15,140.21
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
downside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / downside173.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
downside_2028q4_cogs_sbc
2028Q4 / downside12.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
downside_2028q4_opex_sbc
2028Q4 / downside160.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
downside_2028q4_cashopex
2028Q4 / downside640.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
downside_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / downside800.20
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_cashopex, downside_2028q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
downside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / downside660.70
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q4_ar_quarter_days
2028Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q4_ar_daily
2028Q4 / downside184.46
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q4_revenue, downside_2028q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q4_ar_days
2028Q4 / downside5,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
downside_2028q4_ar_balance
2028Q4 / downside10,145.12
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_ar_daily, downside_2028q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
downside_2028q4_ar_cash
2028Q4 / downside-563.62
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_ar_balance, downside_2028q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q4_inv_quarter_days
2028Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q4_inv_daily
2028Q4 / downside168.22
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q4_cogs, downside_2028q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q4_inv_days
2028Q4 / downside10,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
downside_2028q4_inv_balance
2028Q4 / downside16,822.46
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_inv_daily, downside_2028q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
downside_2028q4_inv_cash
2028Q4 / downside-934.58
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q3_inv_balance, downside_2028q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
downside_2028q4_ap_quarter_days
2028Q4 / downside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
downside_2028q4_ap_daily
2028Q4 / downside168.22
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(downside_2028q4_cogs, downside_2028q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
downside_2028q4_ap_days
2028Q4 / downside1,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
downside_2028q4_ap_balance
2028Q4 / downside3,028.04
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(downside_2028q4_ap_daily, downside_2028q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
downside_2028q4_ap_cash
2028Q4 / downside168.22
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_ap_balance, downside_2028q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
downside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / downside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
downside_2028q4_profit_cash
2028Q4 / downside856.70
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_operating_income, downside_2028q4_sbc, downside_2028q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
downside_2028q4_interest
2028Q4 / downside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
downside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / downside350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
downside_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / downside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
downside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / downside515.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_interest, downside_2028q4_cash_tax, downside_2028q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
downside_2028q4_cash_after_uses
2028Q4 / downside341.70
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_profit_cash, downside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
downside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding
2028Q4 / downside-988.28
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_cash_after_uses, downside_2028q4_ar_cash, downside_2028q4_inv_cash, downside_2028q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
downside_2028q4_customer_funding
2028Q4 / downside0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
downside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / downside-988.28
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
downside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / downside105.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
downside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / downside-1,093.28
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_cfo, downside_2028q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
downside_2028q4_dividend_quarter
2028Q4 / downside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
downside_2028q4_preferred_cash
2028Q4 / downside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, downside_2028q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
downside_2028q4_awards
2028Q4 / downside54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
downside_2028q4_capital_claims
2028Q4 / downside129.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(downside_2028q4_preferred_cash, downside_2028q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
downside_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / downside-1,222.75
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(downside_2028q4_fcf, downside_2028q4_capital_claims).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / downside60,280.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / downside5,123.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / downside2,464.20
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo_before_funding
FY2027 / downside-7,625.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, downside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
downside_fy2027_customer_funding
FY2027 / downside150.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_customer_funding, downside_2027q2_customer_funding, downside_2027q3_customer_funding, downside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / downside-7,475.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / downside310.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / downside-7,785.29
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
downside_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / downside290.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_preferred_cash, downside_2027q2_preferred_cash, downside_2027q3_preferred_cash, downside_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
downside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / downside-8,247.42
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue ($M)
downside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / downside61,485.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_revenue, downside_2028q2_revenue, downside_2028q3_revenue, downside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
downside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / downside5,410.73
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_gross_profit, downside_2028q2_gross_profit, downside_2028q3_gross_profit, downside_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
downside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / downside2,357.53
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_operating_income, downside_2028q2_operating_income, downside_2028q3_operating_income, downside_2028q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo_before_funding
FY2028 / downside3,131.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, downside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
downside_fy2028_customer_funding
FY2028 / downside0.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_customer_funding, downside_2028q2_customer_funding, downside_2028q3_customer_funding, downside_2028q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
downside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / downside3,131.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cfo, downside_2028q2_cfo, downside_2028q3_cfo, downside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
downside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / downside390.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_capex, downside_2028q2_capex, downside_2028q3_capex, downside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
downside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / downside2,741.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_fcf, downside_2028q2_fcf, downside_2028q3_fcf, downside_2028q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
downside_fy2028_preferred_cash
FY2028 / downside301.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_preferred_cash, downside_2028q2_preferred_cash, downside_2028q3_preferred_cash, downside_2028q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
downside_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / downside2,235.96
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2028q1_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q2_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q3_cash_after_claims, downside_2028q4_cash_after_claims).
Sales delivery / guidance midpoint
base_delivery
FY2027 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk delivery sensitivity.
FY2027 sales target
base_annual_target
FY2027 / base68,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses midpoint; no incremental order-book revenue. Formula: multiply(annual_guide, base_delivery).
Q1 sales target
base_q1_target
2027Q1 / base15,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses quarterly midpoint. Formula: multiply(q1_guide, base_delivery).
Remaining FY2027 sales
base_remaining
FY2027 / base53,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Separate Q1 anchor and remaining allocation. Formula: subtract(base_annual_target, base_q1_target).
Identity multiplier
base_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / base15,000.00
USD_millions
derived: Q1 company guidance scenario. Formula: multiply(base_q1_target, base_2027q1_one).
Gross margin
base_2027q1_gm
2027Q1 / base11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / base1,650.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2027q1_cogs
2027Q1 / base13,350.00
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / base138.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / base10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2027q1_opex_sbc
2027Q1 / base128.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2027q1_cashopex
2027Q1 / base485.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q1_opex
2027Q1 / base613.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cashopex, base_2027q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / base1,037.00
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q1_ar_quarter_days
2027Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q1_ar_daily
2027Q1 / base166.67
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q1_ar_days
2027Q1 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2027q1_ar_balance
2027Q1 / base7,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_ar_daily, base_2027q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2027q1_ar_cash
2027Q1 / base-1,374.59
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(receivables, base_2027q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q1_inv_quarter_days
2027Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q1_inv_daily
2027Q1 / base148.33
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_cogs, base_2027q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q1_inv_days
2027Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2027q1_inv_balance
2027Q1 / base13,350.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_inv_daily, base_2027q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2027q1_inv_cash
2027Q1 / base-454.05
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(inventory, base_2027q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q1_ap_quarter_days
2027Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q1_ap_daily
2027Q1 / base148.33
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_cogs, base_2027q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q1_ap_days
2027Q1 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2027q1_ap_balance
2027Q1 / base2,966.67
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_ap_daily, base_2027q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2027q1_ap_cash
2027Q1 / base719.66
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_ap_balance, payables).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / base16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2027q1_profit_cash
2027Q1 / base1,191.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_sbc, base_2027q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / base180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2027q1_other_wc
2027Q1 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / base355.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2027q1_cash_after_uses
2027Q1 / base836.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_profit_cash, base_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2027q1_cfo_before_funding
2027Q1 / base-272.97
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_uses, base_2027q1_ar_cash, base_2027q1_inv_cash, base_2027q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2027q1_customer_funding
2027Q1 / base500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / base227.03
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / base70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / base157.03
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex).
Initial dividend multiplier
base_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / base100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / base63.73
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(initial_preferred_cash, base_2027q1_dividend_factor).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / base40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2027q1_capital_claims
2027Q1 / base103.73
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_cash, base_2027q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / base53.30
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
base_2027q2_remaining_share
2027Q2 / base30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / base16,050.00
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(base_remaining, base_2027q2_remaining_share).
Gross margin
base_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / base11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / base1,765.50
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2027q2_cogs
2027Q2 / base14,284.50
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / base143.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / base10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2027q2_opex_sbc
2027Q2 / base132.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2027q2_cashopex
2027Q2 / base504.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / base637.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cashopex, base_2027q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / base1,128.50
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q2_ar_quarter_days
2027Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q2_ar_daily
2027Q2 / base178.33
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q2_ar_days
2027Q2 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2027q2_ar_balance
2027Q2 / base8,025.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_ar_daily, base_2027q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2027q2_ar_cash
2027Q2 / base-525.00
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_ar_balance, base_2027q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q2_inv_quarter_days
2027Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q2_inv_daily
2027Q2 / base158.72
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_cogs, base_2027q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q2_inv_days
2027Q2 / base8,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2027q2_inv_balance
2027Q2 / base13,967.07
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_inv_daily, base_2027q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2027q2_inv_cash
2027Q2 / base-617.07
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_inv_balance, base_2027q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q2_ap_quarter_days
2027Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q2_ap_daily
2027Q2 / base158.72
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_cogs, base_2027q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q2_ap_days
2027Q2 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2027q2_ap_balance
2027Q2 / base3,174.33
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_ap_daily, base_2027q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2027q2_ap_cash
2027Q2 / base207.67
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_ap_balance, base_2027q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / base17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2027q2_profit_cash
2027Q2 / base1,288.50
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_sbc, base_2027q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / base220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / base395.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2027q2_cash_after_uses
2027Q2 / base893.50
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_profit_cash, base_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2027q2_cfo_before_funding
2027Q2 / base-40.90
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_after_uses, base_2027q2_ar_cash, base_2027q2_inv_cash, base_2027q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2027q2_customer_funding
2027Q2 / base500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / base459.10
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / base384.10
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2027q2_dividend_quarter
2027Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2027q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / base42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2027q2_capital_claims
2027Q2 / base117.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_preferred_cash, base_2027q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / base266.63
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
base_2027q3_remaining_share
2027Q3 / base33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / base17,655.00
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(base_remaining, base_2027q3_remaining_share).
Gross margin
base_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / base11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / base1,942.05
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2027q3_cogs
2027Q3 / base15,712.95
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / base148.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / base10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2027q3_opex_sbc
2027Q3 / base137.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2027q3_cashopex
2027Q3 / base523.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / base661.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cashopex, base_2027q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / base1,281.05
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q3_ar_quarter_days
2027Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q3_ar_daily
2027Q3 / base196.17
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q3_ar_days
2027Q3 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2027q3_ar_balance
2027Q3 / base8,827.50
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_ar_daily, base_2027q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2027q3_ar_cash
2027Q3 / base-802.50
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_ar_balance, base_2027q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q3_inv_quarter_days
2027Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q3_inv_daily
2027Q3 / base174.59
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_cogs, base_2027q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q3_inv_days
2027Q3 / base8,600.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2027q3_inv_balance
2027Q3 / base15,014.60
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_inv_daily, base_2027q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2027q3_inv_cash
2027Q3 / base-1,047.53
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_inv_balance, base_2027q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q3_ap_quarter_days
2027Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q3_ap_daily
2027Q3 / base174.59
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_cogs, base_2027q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q3_ap_days
2027Q3 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2027q3_ap_balance
2027Q3 / base3,491.77
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_ap_daily, base_2027q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2027q3_ap_cash
2027Q3 / base317.43
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_ap_balance, base_2027q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / base18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2027q3_profit_cash
2027Q3 / base1,447.05
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_sbc, base_2027q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / base240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / base415.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2027q3_cash_after_uses
2027Q3 / base1,032.05
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_profit_cash, base_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2027q3_cfo_before_funding
2027Q3 / base-500.55
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_after_uses, base_2027q3_ar_cash, base_2027q3_inv_cash, base_2027q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2027q3_customer_funding
2027Q3 / base350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / base-150.55
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / base-230.55
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2027q3_dividend_quarter
2027Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2027q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / base44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2027q3_capital_claims
2027Q3 / base119.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_preferred_cash, base_2027q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / base-350.02
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
base_2027q4_remaining_share
2027Q4 / base37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / base19,795.00
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(base_remaining, base_2027q4_remaining_share).
Gross margin
base_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / base11.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / base2,177.45
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2027q4_cogs
2027Q4 / base17,617.55
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / base153.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / base11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2027q4_opex_sbc
2027Q4 / base141.80
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2027q4_cashopex
2027Q4 / base543.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / base685.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cashopex, base_2027q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / base1,492.45
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q4_ar_quarter_days
2027Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q4_ar_daily
2027Q4 / base219.94
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q4_ar_days
2027Q4 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2027q4_ar_balance
2027Q4 / base9,897.50
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_ar_daily, base_2027q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2027q4_ar_cash
2027Q4 / base-1,070.00
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_ar_balance, base_2027q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q4_inv_quarter_days
2027Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q4_inv_daily
2027Q4 / base195.75
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_cogs, base_2027q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q4_inv_days
2027Q4 / base8,400.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2027q4_inv_balance
2027Q4 / base16,443.05
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_inv_daily, base_2027q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2027q4_inv_cash
2027Q4 / base-1,428.45
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_inv_balance, base_2027q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2027q4_ap_quarter_days
2027Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2027q4_ap_daily
2027Q4 / base195.75
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_cogs, base_2027q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2027q4_ap_days
2027Q4 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2027q4_ap_balance
2027Q4 / base3,915.01
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_ap_daily, base_2027q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2027q4_ap_cash
2027Q4 / base423.24
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_ap_balance, base_2027q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / base19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2027q4_profit_cash
2027Q4 / base1,664.45
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_sbc, base_2027q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / base75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / base300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / base475.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2027q4_cash_after_uses
2027Q4 / base1,189.45
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_profit_cash, base_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2027q4_cfo_before_funding
2027Q4 / base-885.76
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_after_uses, base_2027q4_ar_cash, base_2027q4_inv_cash, base_2027q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2027q4_customer_funding
2027Q4 / base150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / base-735.76
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / base85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / base-820.76
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2027q4_dividend_quarter
2027Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2027q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / base46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2027q4_capital_claims
2027Q4 / base121.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_preferred_cash, base_2027q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / base-942.22
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
base_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
base_2028q1_season
2028Q1 / base23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / base18,906.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(base_annual_target, base_2028q1_growth, base_2028q1_season).
Gross margin
base_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / base11.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / base2,136.38
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2028q1_cogs
2028Q1 / base16,769.62
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / base158.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2028q1_cogs_sbc
2028Q1 / base11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2028q1_opex_sbc
2028Q1 / base146.40
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2028q1_cashopex
2028Q1 / base562.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / base709.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cashopex, base_2028q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / base1,427.38
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q1_ar_quarter_days
2028Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q1_ar_daily
2028Q1 / base210.07
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q1_ar_days
2028Q1 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2028q1_ar_balance
2028Q1 / base9,453.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_ar_daily, base_2028q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2028q1_ar_cash
2028Q1 / base444.50
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_ar_balance, base_2028q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q1_inv_quarter_days
2028Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q1_inv_daily
2028Q1 / base186.33
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q1_cogs, base_2028q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q1_inv_days
2028Q1 / base8,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2028q1_inv_balance
2028Q1 / base15,278.99
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_inv_daily, base_2028q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2028q1_inv_cash
2028Q1 / base1,164.06
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_inv_balance, base_2028q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q1_ap_quarter_days
2028Q1 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q1_ap_daily
2028Q1 / base186.33
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q1_cogs, base_2028q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q1_ap_days
2028Q1 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2028q1_ap_balance
2028Q1 / base3,726.58
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q1_ap_daily, base_2028q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2028q1_ap_cash
2028Q1 / base-188.43
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_ap_balance, base_2027q4_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / base20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2028q1_profit_cash
2028Q1 / base1,605.38
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q1_sbc, base_2028q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2028q1_interest
2028Q1 / base85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / base280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / base445.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_interest, base_2028q1_cash_tax, base_2028q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2028q1_cash_after_uses
2028Q1 / base1,160.38
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_profit_cash, base_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2028q1_cfo_before_funding
2028Q1 / base2,580.51
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_uses, base_2028q1_ar_cash, base_2028q1_inv_cash, base_2028q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2028q1_customer_funding
2028Q1 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / base2,780.51
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / base90.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / base2,690.51
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q1_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2028q1_dividend_quarter
2028Q1 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2028q1_preferred_cash
2028Q1 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2028q1_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2028q1_awards
2028Q1 / base48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2028q1_capital_claims
2028Q1 / base123.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_preferred_cash, base_2028q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / base2,567.04
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q1_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
base_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
base_2028q2_season
2028Q2 / base24.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / base20,139.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(base_annual_target, base_2028q2_growth, base_2028q2_season).
Gross margin
base_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / base11.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / base2,275.71
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2028q2_cogs
2028Q2 / base17,863.29
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / base163.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2028q2_cogs_sbc
2028Q2 / base12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2028q2_opex_sbc
2028Q2 / base151.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2028q2_cashopex
2028Q2 / base582.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / base733.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_cashopex, base_2028q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / base1,542.71
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q2_ar_quarter_days
2028Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q2_ar_daily
2028Q2 / base223.77
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q2_ar_days
2028Q2 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2028q2_ar_balance
2028Q2 / base10,069.50
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_ar_daily, base_2028q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2028q2_ar_cash
2028Q2 / base-616.50
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_ar_balance, base_2028q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q2_inv_quarter_days
2028Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q2_inv_daily
2028Q2 / base198.48
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q2_cogs, base_2028q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q2_inv_days
2028Q2 / base8,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2028q2_inv_balance
2028Q2 / base15,878.48
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_inv_daily, base_2028q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2028q2_inv_cash
2028Q2 / base-599.49
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q1_inv_balance, base_2028q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q2_ap_quarter_days
2028Q2 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q2_ap_daily
2028Q2 / base198.48
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q2_cogs, base_2028q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q2_ap_days
2028Q2 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2028q2_ap_balance
2028Q2 / base3,969.62
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q2_ap_daily, base_2028q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2028q2_ap_cash
2028Q2 / base243.04
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_ap_balance, base_2028q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / base21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2028q2_profit_cash
2028Q2 / base1,726.71
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q2_sbc, base_2028q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2028q2_interest
2028Q2 / base85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / base300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / base465.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_interest, base_2028q2_cash_tax, base_2028q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2028q2_cash_after_uses
2028Q2 / base1,261.71
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_profit_cash, base_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2028q2_cfo_before_funding
2028Q2 / base288.75
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_cash_after_uses, base_2028q2_ar_cash, base_2028q2_inv_cash, base_2028q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2028q2_customer_funding
2028Q2 / base200.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / base488.75
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / base95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / base393.75
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2028q2_dividend_quarter
2028Q2 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2028q2_preferred_cash
2028Q2 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2028q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2028q2_awards
2028Q2 / base50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2028q2_capital_claims
2028Q2 / base125.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q2_preferred_cash, base_2028q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / base268.28
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q2_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
base_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
base_2028q3_season
2028Q3 / base25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / base20,961.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(base_annual_target, base_2028q3_growth, base_2028q3_season).
Gross margin
base_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / base11.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / base2,368.59
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2028q3_cogs
2028Q3 / base18,592.41
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / base168.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2028q3_cogs_sbc
2028Q3 / base12.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2028q3_opex_sbc
2028Q3 / base155.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2028q3_cashopex
2028Q3 / base601.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / base757.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_cashopex, base_2028q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / base1,611.59
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q3_ar_quarter_days
2028Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q3_ar_daily
2028Q3 / base232.90
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q3_ar_days
2028Q3 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2028q3_ar_balance
2028Q3 / base10,480.50
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_ar_daily, base_2028q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2028q3_ar_cash
2028Q3 / base-411.00
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_ar_balance, base_2028q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q3_inv_quarter_days
2028Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q3_inv_daily
2028Q3 / base206.58
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q3_cogs, base_2028q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q3_inv_days
2028Q3 / base8,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2028q3_inv_balance
2028Q3 / base16,526.58
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_inv_daily, base_2028q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2028q3_inv_cash
2028Q3 / base-648.10
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q2_inv_balance, base_2028q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q3_ap_quarter_days
2028Q3 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q3_ap_daily
2028Q3 / base206.58
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q3_cogs, base_2028q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q3_ap_days
2028Q3 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2028q3_ap_balance
2028Q3 / base4,131.65
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q3_ap_daily, base_2028q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2028q3_ap_cash
2028Q3 / base162.03
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_ap_balance, base_2028q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / base22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2028q3_profit_cash
2028Q3 / base1,801.59
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q3_sbc, base_2028q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2028q3_interest
2028Q3 / base85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / base320.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / base485.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_interest, base_2028q3_cash_tax, base_2028q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2028q3_cash_after_uses
2028Q3 / base1,316.59
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_profit_cash, base_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2028q3_cfo_before_funding
2028Q3 / base419.52
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_cash_after_uses, base_2028q3_ar_cash, base_2028q3_inv_cash, base_2028q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2028q3_customer_funding
2028Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / base519.52
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / base100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / base419.52
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2028q3_dividend_quarter
2028Q3 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2028q3_preferred_cash
2028Q3 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2028q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2028q3_awards
2028Q3 / base52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2028q3_capital_claims
2028Q3 / base127.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q3_preferred_cash, base_2028q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / base292.05
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q3_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
base_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / base120.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
base_2028q4_season
2028Q4 / base27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
base_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / base22,194.00
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(base_annual_target, base_2028q4_growth, base_2028q4_season).
Gross margin
base_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / base11.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
base_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / base2,507.92
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
base_2028q4_cogs
2028Q4 / base19,686.08
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
base_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / base173.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
base_2028q4_cogs_sbc
2028Q4 / base12.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
base_2028q4_opex_sbc
2028Q4 / base160.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
base_2028q4_cashopex
2028Q4 / base620.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
base_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / base781.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_cashopex, base_2028q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
base_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / base1,726.92
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_gross_profit, base_2028q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q4_ar_quarter_days
2028Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q4_ar_daily
2028Q4 / base246.60
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q4_revenue, base_2028q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q4_ar_days
2028Q4 / base4,500.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
base_2028q4_ar_balance
2028Q4 / base11,097.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_ar_daily, base_2028q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
base_2028q4_ar_cash
2028Q4 / base-616.50
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_ar_balance, base_2028q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q4_inv_quarter_days
2028Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q4_inv_daily
2028Q4 / base218.73
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q4_cogs, base_2028q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q4_inv_days
2028Q4 / base8,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
base_2028q4_inv_balance
2028Q4 / base17,498.74
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_inv_daily, base_2028q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
base_2028q4_inv_cash
2028Q4 / base-972.15
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q3_inv_balance, base_2028q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
base_2028q4_ap_quarter_days
2028Q4 / base9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
base_2028q4_ap_daily
2028Q4 / base218.73
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(base_2028q4_cogs, base_2028q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
base_2028q4_ap_days
2028Q4 / base2,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
base_2028q4_ap_balance
2028Q4 / base4,374.68
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(base_2028q4_ap_daily, base_2028q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
base_2028q4_ap_cash
2028Q4 / base243.04
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_ap_balance, base_2028q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
base_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / base23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
base_2028q4_profit_cash
2028Q4 / base1,922.92
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_operating_income, base_2028q4_sbc, base_2028q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
base_2028q4_interest
2028Q4 / base85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
base_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / base350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
base_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / base80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
base_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / base515.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_interest, base_2028q4_cash_tax, base_2028q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
base_2028q4_cash_after_uses
2028Q4 / base1,407.92
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_profit_cash, base_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
base_2028q4_cfo_before_funding
2028Q4 / base62.31
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_cash_after_uses, base_2028q4_ar_cash, base_2028q4_inv_cash, base_2028q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
base_2028q4_customer_funding
2028Q4 / base0.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
base_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / base62.31
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
base_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / base105.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
base_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / base-42.69
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_cfo, base_2028q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
base_2028q4_dividend_quarter
2028Q4 / base25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
base_2028q4_preferred_cash
2028Q4 / base75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, base_2028q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
base_2028q4_awards
2028Q4 / base54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
base_2028q4_capital_claims
2028Q4 / base129.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(base_2028q4_preferred_cash, base_2028q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
base_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / base-172.16
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(base_2028q4_fcf, base_2028q4_capital_claims).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / base68,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / base7,535.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / base4,939.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo_before_funding
FY2027 / base-1,700.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, base_2027q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
base_fy2027_customer_funding
FY2027 / base1,500.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_customer_funding, base_2027q2_customer_funding, base_2027q3_customer_funding, base_2027q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / base-200.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / base310.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / base-510.18
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
base_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / base290.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_preferred_cash, base_2027q2_preferred_cash, base_2027q3_preferred_cash, base_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
base_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / base-972.31
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_claims, base_2027q2_cash_after_claims, base_2027q3_cash_after_claims, base_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue ($M)
base_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / base82,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_revenue, base_2028q2_revenue, base_2028q3_revenue, base_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
base_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / base9,288.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_gross_profit, base_2028q2_gross_profit, base_2028q3_gross_profit, base_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
base_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / base6,308.60
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_operating_income, base_2028q2_operating_income, base_2028q3_operating_income, base_2028q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo_before_funding
FY2028 / base3,351.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, base_2028q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
base_fy2028_customer_funding
FY2028 / base500.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_customer_funding, base_2028q2_customer_funding, base_2028q3_customer_funding, base_2028q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
base_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / base3,851.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cfo, base_2028q2_cfo, base_2028q3_cfo, base_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
base_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / base390.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_capex, base_2028q2_capex, base_2028q3_capex, base_2028q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
base_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / base3,461.08
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_fcf, base_2028q2_fcf, base_2028q3_fcf, base_2028q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
base_fy2028_preferred_cash
FY2028 / base301.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_preferred_cash, base_2028q2_preferred_cash, base_2028q3_preferred_cash, base_2028q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
base_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / base2,955.21
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2028q1_cash_after_claims, base_2028q2_cash_after_claims, base_2028q3_cash_after_claims, base_2028q4_cash_after_claims).
Sales delivery / guidance midpoint
upside_delivery
FY2027 / upside108.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk delivery sensitivity.
FY2027 sales target
upside_annual_target
FY2027 / upside73,980.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses midpoint; no incremental order-book revenue. Formula: multiply(annual_guide, upside_delivery).
Q1 sales target
upside_q1_target
2027Q1 / upside16,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Base uses quarterly midpoint. Formula: multiply(q1_guide, upside_delivery).
Remaining FY2027 sales
upside_remaining
FY2027 / upside57,780.00
USD_millions
derived: Separate Q1 anchor and remaining allocation. Formula: subtract(upside_annual_target, upside_q1_target).
Identity multiplier
upside_2027q1_one
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q1_revenue
2027Q1 / upside16,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Q1 company guidance scenario. Formula: multiply(upside_q1_target, upside_2027q1_one).
Gross margin
upside_2027q1_gm
2027Q1 / upside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q1_gross_profit
2027Q1 / upside2,106.00
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2027q1_cogs
2027Q1 / upside14,094.00
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2027q1_sbc
2027Q1 / upside138.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc
2027Q1 / upside10.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2027q1_opex_sbc
2027Q1 / upside128.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2027q1_cashopex
2027Q1 / upside500.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q1_opex
2027Q1 / upside628.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cashopex, upside_2027q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q1_operating_income
2027Q1 / upside1,478.00
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q1_ar_quarter_days
2027Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q1_ar_daily
2027Q1 / upside180.00
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q1_ar_days
2027Q1 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2027q1_ar_balance
2027Q1 / upside7,200.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_ar_daily, upside_2027q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2027q1_ar_cash
2027Q1 / upside-1,074.59
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(receivables, upside_2027q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q1_inv_quarter_days
2027Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q1_inv_daily
2027Q1 / upside156.60
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_cogs, upside_2027q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q1_inv_days
2027Q1 / upside8,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2027q1_inv_balance
2027Q1 / upside12,528.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_inv_daily, upside_2027q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2027q1_inv_cash
2027Q1 / upside367.95
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(inventory, upside_2027q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q1_ap_quarter_days
2027Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q1_ap_daily
2027Q1 / upside156.60
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_cogs, upside_2027q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q1_ap_days
2027Q1 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2027q1_ap_balance
2027Q1 / upside3,445.20
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_ap_daily, upside_2027q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2027q1_ap_cash
2027Q1 / upside1,198.20
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_ap_balance, payables).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q1_da
2027Q1 / upside16.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2027q1_profit_cash
2027Q1 / upside1,632.00
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_sbc, upside_2027q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2027q1_interest
2027Q1 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q1_cash_tax
2027Q1 / upside180.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2027q1_other_wc
2027Q1 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2027q1_cash_uses
2027Q1 / upside355.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2027q1_cash_after_uses
2027Q1 / upside1,277.00
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_profit_cash, upside_2027q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding
2027Q1 / upside1,768.56
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_uses, upside_2027q1_ar_cash, upside_2027q1_inv_cash, upside_2027q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2027q1_customer_funding
2027Q1 / upside600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q1_cfo
2027Q1 / upside2,368.56
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q1_capex
2027Q1 / upside70.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q1_fcf
2027Q1 / upside2,298.56
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex).
Initial dividend multiplier
upside_2027q1_dividend_factor
2027Q1 / upside100.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2027q1_preferred_cash
2027Q1 / upside63.73
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(initial_preferred_cash, upside_2027q1_dividend_factor).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2027q1_awards
2027Q1 / upside40.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2027q1_capital_claims
2027Q1 / upside103.73
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_cash, upside_2027q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims
2027Q1 / upside2,194.83
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
upside_2027q2_remaining_share
2027Q2 / upside30.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q2_revenue
2027Q2 / upside17,334.00
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_remaining, upside_2027q2_remaining_share).
Gross margin
upside_2027q2_gm
2027Q2 / upside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q2_gross_profit
2027Q2 / upside2,253.42
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2027q2_cogs
2027Q2 / upside15,080.58
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2027q2_sbc
2027Q2 / upside143.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc
2027Q2 / upside10.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2027q2_opex_sbc
2027Q2 / upside132.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2027q2_cashopex
2027Q2 / upside520.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q2_opex
2027Q2 / upside652.60
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cashopex, upside_2027q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q2_operating_income
2027Q2 / upside1,600.82
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q2_ar_quarter_days
2027Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q2_ar_daily
2027Q2 / upside192.60
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q2_ar_days
2027Q2 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2027q2_ar_balance
2027Q2 / upside7,704.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_ar_daily, upside_2027q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2027q2_ar_cash
2027Q2 / upside-504.00
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_ar_balance, upside_2027q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q2_inv_quarter_days
2027Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q2_inv_daily
2027Q2 / upside167.56
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_cogs, upside_2027q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q2_inv_days
2027Q2 / upside7,800.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2027q2_inv_balance
2027Q2 / upside13,069.84
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_inv_daily, upside_2027q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2027q2_inv_cash
2027Q2 / upside-541.84
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_inv_balance, upside_2027q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q2_ap_quarter_days
2027Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q2_ap_daily
2027Q2 / upside167.56
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_cogs, upside_2027q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q2_ap_days
2027Q2 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2027q2_ap_balance
2027Q2 / upside3,686.36
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_ap_daily, upside_2027q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2027q2_ap_cash
2027Q2 / upside241.16
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_ap_balance, upside_2027q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q2_da
2027Q2 / upside17.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2027q2_profit_cash
2027Q2 / upside1,760.82
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_sbc, upside_2027q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2027q2_interest
2027Q2 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q2_cash_tax
2027Q2 / upside220.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2027q2_other_wc
2027Q2 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2027q2_cash_uses
2027Q2 / upside395.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2027q2_cash_after_uses
2027Q2 / upside1,365.82
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_profit_cash, upside_2027q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding
2027Q2 / upside561.15
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_after_uses, upside_2027q2_ar_cash, upside_2027q2_inv_cash, upside_2027q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2027q2_customer_funding
2027Q2 / upside600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q2_cfo
2027Q2 / upside1,161.15
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q2_capex
2027Q2 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q2_fcf
2027Q2 / upside1,086.15
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2027q2_dividend_quarter
2027Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2027q2_preferred_cash
2027Q2 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2027q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2027q2_awards
2027Q2 / upside42.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2027q2_capital_claims
2027Q2 / upside117.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_preferred_cash, upside_2027q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims
2027Q2 / upside968.68
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
upside_2027q3_remaining_share
2027Q3 / upside33.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q3_revenue
2027Q3 / upside19,067.40
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_remaining, upside_2027q3_remaining_share).
Gross margin
upside_2027q3_gm
2027Q3 / upside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q3_gross_profit
2027Q3 / upside2,478.76
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2027q3_cogs
2027Q3 / upside16,588.64
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2027q3_sbc
2027Q3 / upside148.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc
2027Q3 / upside10.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2027q3_opex_sbc
2027Q3 / upside137.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2027q3_cashopex
2027Q3 / upside540.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q3_opex
2027Q3 / upside677.20
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cashopex, upside_2027q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q3_operating_income
2027Q3 / upside1,801.56
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q3_ar_quarter_days
2027Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q3_ar_daily
2027Q3 / upside211.86
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q3_ar_days
2027Q3 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2027q3_ar_balance
2027Q3 / upside8,474.40
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_ar_daily, upside_2027q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2027q3_ar_cash
2027Q3 / upside-770.40
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_ar_balance, upside_2027q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q3_inv_quarter_days
2027Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q3_inv_daily
2027Q3 / upside184.32
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_cogs, upside_2027q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q3_inv_days
2027Q3 / upside7,600.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2027q3_inv_balance
2027Q3 / upside14,008.18
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_inv_daily, upside_2027q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2027q3_inv_cash
2027Q3 / upside-938.35
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_inv_balance, upside_2027q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q3_ap_quarter_days
2027Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q3_ap_daily
2027Q3 / upside184.32
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_cogs, upside_2027q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q3_ap_days
2027Q3 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2027q3_ap_balance
2027Q3 / upside4,055.00
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_ap_daily, upside_2027q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2027q3_ap_cash
2027Q3 / upside368.64
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_ap_balance, upside_2027q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q3_da
2027Q3 / upside18.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2027q3_profit_cash
2027Q3 / upside1,967.56
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_sbc, upside_2027q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2027q3_interest
2027Q3 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q3_cash_tax
2027Q3 / upside240.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2027q3_other_wc
2027Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2027q3_cash_uses
2027Q3 / upside415.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2027q3_cash_after_uses
2027Q3 / upside1,552.56
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_profit_cash, upside_2027q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding
2027Q3 / upside212.45
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_after_uses, upside_2027q3_ar_cash, upside_2027q3_inv_cash, upside_2027q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2027q3_customer_funding
2027Q3 / upside450.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q3_cfo
2027Q3 / upside662.45
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q3_capex
2027Q3 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q3_fcf
2027Q3 / upside582.45
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2027q3_dividend_quarter
2027Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2027q3_preferred_cash
2027Q3 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2027q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2027q3_awards
2027Q3 / upside44.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2027q3_capital_claims
2027Q3 / upside119.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_preferred_cash, upside_2027q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims
2027Q3 / upside462.98
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_capital_claims).
Remaining sales share
upside_2027q4_remaining_share
2027Q4 / upside37.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2027q4_revenue
2027Q4 / upside21,378.60
USD_millions
derived: Explicit back-half delivery allocation. Formula: multiply(upside_remaining, upside_2027q4_remaining_share).
Gross margin
upside_2027q4_gm
2027Q4 / upside13.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2027q4_gross_profit
2027Q4 / upside2,779.22
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2027q4_cogs
2027Q4 / upside18,599.38
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2027q4_sbc
2027Q4 / upside153.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc
2027Q4 / upside11.20
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2027q4_opex_sbc
2027Q4 / upside141.80
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2027q4_cashopex
2027Q4 / upside560.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2027q4_opex
2027Q4 / upside701.80
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cashopex, upside_2027q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2027q4_operating_income
2027Q4 / upside2,077.42
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q4_ar_quarter_days
2027Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q4_ar_daily
2027Q4 / upside237.54
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q4_ar_days
2027Q4 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2027q4_ar_balance
2027Q4 / upside9,501.60
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_ar_daily, upside_2027q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2027q4_ar_cash
2027Q4 / upside-1,027.20
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_ar_balance, upside_2027q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q4_inv_quarter_days
2027Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q4_inv_daily
2027Q4 / upside206.66
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_cogs, upside_2027q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q4_inv_days
2027Q4 / upside7,400.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2027q4_inv_balance
2027Q4 / upside15,292.83
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_inv_daily, upside_2027q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2027q4_inv_cash
2027Q4 / upside-1,284.64
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_inv_balance, upside_2027q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2027q4_ap_quarter_days
2027Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2027q4_ap_daily
2027Q4 / upside206.66
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_cogs, upside_2027q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2027q4_ap_days
2027Q4 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2027q4_ap_balance
2027Q4 / upside4,546.52
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_ap_daily, upside_2027q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2027q4_ap_cash
2027Q4 / upside491.52
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_ap_balance, upside_2027q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2027q4_da
2027Q4 / upside19.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2027q4_profit_cash
2027Q4 / upside2,249.42
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_sbc, upside_2027q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2027q4_interest
2027Q4 / upside75.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2027q4_cash_tax
2027Q4 / upside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2027q4_other_wc
2027Q4 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2027q4_cash_uses
2027Q4 / upside475.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2027q4_cash_after_uses
2027Q4 / upside1,774.42
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_profit_cash, upside_2027q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding
2027Q4 / upside-45.91
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_after_uses, upside_2027q4_ar_cash, upside_2027q4_inv_cash, upside_2027q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2027q4_customer_funding
2027Q4 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2027q4_cfo
2027Q4 / upside204.09
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2027q4_capex
2027Q4 / upside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2027q4_fcf
2027Q4 / upside119.09
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2027q4_dividend_quarter
2027Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2027q4_preferred_cash
2027Q4 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2027q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2027q4_awards
2027Q4 / upside46.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2027q4_capital_claims
2027Q4 / upside121.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_preferred_cash, upside_2027q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims
2027Q4 / upside-2.38
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
upside_2028q1_growth
2028Q1 / upside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
upside_2028q1_season
2028Q1 / upside23.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q1_revenue
2028Q1 / upside22,120.02
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_target, upside_2028q1_growth, upside_2028q1_season).
Gross margin
upside_2028q1_gm
2028Q1 / upside13.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q1_gross_profit
2028Q1 / upside2,941.96
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2028q1_cogs
2028Q1 / upside19,178.06
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2028q1_sbc
2028Q1 / upside158.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2028q1_cogs_sbc
2028Q1 / upside11.60
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2028q1_opex_sbc
2028Q1 / upside146.40
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2028q1_cashopex
2028Q1 / upside580.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q1_opex
2028Q1 / upside726.40
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cashopex, upside_2028q1_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q1_operating_income
2028Q1 / upside2,215.56
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q1_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q1_ar_quarter_days
2028Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q1_ar_daily
2028Q1 / upside245.78
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q1_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q1_ar_days
2028Q1 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2028q1_ar_balance
2028Q1 / upside9,831.12
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_ar_daily, upside_2028q1_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2028q1_ar_cash
2028Q1 / upside-329.52
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_ar_balance, upside_2028q1_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q1_inv_quarter_days
2028Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q1_inv_daily
2028Q1 / upside213.09
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q1_cogs, upside_2028q1_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q1_inv_days
2028Q1 / upside7,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2028q1_inv_balance
2028Q1 / upside15,342.45
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_inv_daily, upside_2028q1_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2028q1_inv_cash
2028Q1 / upside-49.62
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_inv_balance, upside_2028q1_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q1_ap_quarter_days
2028Q1 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q1_ap_daily
2028Q1 / upside213.09
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q1_cogs, upside_2028q1_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q1_ap_days
2028Q1 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2028q1_ap_balance
2028Q1 / upside4,687.97
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q1_ap_daily, upside_2028q1_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2028q1_ap_cash
2028Q1 / upside141.45
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_ap_balance, upside_2027q4_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q1_da
2028Q1 / upside20.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2028q1_profit_cash
2028Q1 / upside2,393.56
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q1_sbc, upside_2028q1_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2028q1_interest
2028Q1 / upside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q1_cash_tax
2028Q1 / upside280.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2028q1_other_wc
2028Q1 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2028q1_cash_uses
2028Q1 / upside445.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_interest, upside_2028q1_cash_tax, upside_2028q1_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2028q1_cash_after_uses
2028Q1 / upside1,948.56
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_profit_cash, upside_2028q1_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding
2028Q1 / upside1,710.88
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_uses, upside_2028q1_ar_cash, upside_2028q1_inv_cash, upside_2028q1_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2028q1_customer_funding
2028Q1 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q1_cfo
2028Q1 / upside1,960.88
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q1_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q1_capex
2028Q1 / upside90.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2028q1_fcf
2028Q1 / upside1,870.88
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q1_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2028q1_dividend_quarter
2028Q1 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2028q1_preferred_cash
2028Q1 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2028q1_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2028q1_awards
2028Q1 / upside48.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2028q1_capital_claims
2028Q1 / upside123.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_preferred_cash, upside_2028q1_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2028q1_cash_after_claims
2028Q1 / upside1,747.41
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q1_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
upside_2028q2_growth
2028Q2 / upside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
upside_2028q2_season
2028Q2 / upside24.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q2_revenue
2028Q2 / upside23,562.63
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_target, upside_2028q2_growth, upside_2028q2_season).
Gross margin
upside_2028q2_gm
2028Q2 / upside13.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q2_gross_profit
2028Q2 / upside3,133.83
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2028q2_cogs
2028Q2 / upside20,428.80
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2028q2_sbc
2028Q2 / upside163.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2028q2_cogs_sbc
2028Q2 / upside12.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2028q2_opex_sbc
2028Q2 / upside151.00
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2028q2_cashopex
2028Q2 / upside600.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q2_opex
2028Q2 / upside751.00
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_cashopex, upside_2028q2_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q2_operating_income
2028Q2 / upside2,382.83
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q2_ar_quarter_days
2028Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q2_ar_daily
2028Q2 / upside261.81
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q2_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q2_ar_days
2028Q2 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2028q2_ar_balance
2028Q2 / upside10,472.28
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_ar_daily, upside_2028q2_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2028q2_ar_cash
2028Q2 / upside-641.16
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_ar_balance, upside_2028q2_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q2_inv_quarter_days
2028Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q2_inv_daily
2028Q2 / upside226.99
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q2_cogs, upside_2028q2_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q2_inv_days
2028Q2 / upside7,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2028q2_inv_balance
2028Q2 / upside15,889.07
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_inv_daily, upside_2028q2_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2028q2_inv_cash
2028Q2 / upside-546.62
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q1_inv_balance, upside_2028q2_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q2_ap_quarter_days
2028Q2 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q2_ap_daily
2028Q2 / upside226.99
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q2_cogs, upside_2028q2_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q2_ap_days
2028Q2 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2028q2_ap_balance
2028Q2 / upside4,993.71
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q2_ap_daily, upside_2028q2_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2028q2_ap_cash
2028Q2 / upside305.74
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_ap_balance, upside_2028q1_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q2_da
2028Q2 / upside21.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2028q2_profit_cash
2028Q2 / upside2,566.83
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q2_sbc, upside_2028q2_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2028q2_interest
2028Q2 / upside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q2_cash_tax
2028Q2 / upside300.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2028q2_other_wc
2028Q2 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2028q2_cash_uses
2028Q2 / upside465.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_interest, upside_2028q2_cash_tax, upside_2028q2_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2028q2_cash_after_uses
2028Q2 / upside2,101.83
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_profit_cash, upside_2028q2_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding
2028Q2 / upside1,219.79
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_cash_after_uses, upside_2028q2_ar_cash, upside_2028q2_inv_cash, upside_2028q2_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2028q2_customer_funding
2028Q2 / upside250.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q2_cfo
2028Q2 / upside1,469.79
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q2_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q2_capex
2028Q2 / upside95.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2028q2_fcf
2028Q2 / upside1,374.79
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q2_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2028q2_dividend_quarter
2028Q2 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2028q2_preferred_cash
2028Q2 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2028q2_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2028q2_awards
2028Q2 / upside50.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2028q2_capital_claims
2028Q2 / upside125.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q2_preferred_cash, upside_2028q2_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2028q2_cash_after_claims
2028Q2 / upside1,249.32
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q2_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
upside_2028q3_growth
2028Q3 / upside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
upside_2028q3_season
2028Q3 / upside25.5%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q3_revenue
2028Q3 / upside24,524.37
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_target, upside_2028q3_growth, upside_2028q3_season).
Gross margin
upside_2028q3_gm
2028Q3 / upside13.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q3_gross_profit
2028Q3 / upside3,261.74
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2028q3_cogs
2028Q3 / upside21,262.63
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2028q3_sbc
2028Q3 / upside168.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2028q3_cogs_sbc
2028Q3 / upside12.40
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2028q3_opex_sbc
2028Q3 / upside155.60
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2028q3_cashopex
2028Q3 / upside620.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q3_opex
2028Q3 / upside775.60
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_cashopex, upside_2028q3_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q3_operating_income
2028Q3 / upside2,486.14
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q3_ar_quarter_days
2028Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q3_ar_daily
2028Q3 / upside272.49
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q3_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q3_ar_days
2028Q3 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2028q3_ar_balance
2028Q3 / upside10,899.72
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_ar_daily, upside_2028q3_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2028q3_ar_cash
2028Q3 / upside-427.44
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_ar_balance, upside_2028q3_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q3_inv_quarter_days
2028Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q3_inv_daily
2028Q3 / upside236.25
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q3_cogs, upside_2028q3_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q3_inv_days
2028Q3 / upside7,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2028q3_inv_balance
2028Q3 / upside16,537.60
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_inv_daily, upside_2028q3_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2028q3_inv_cash
2028Q3 / upside-648.53
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q2_inv_balance, upside_2028q3_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q3_ap_quarter_days
2028Q3 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q3_ap_daily
2028Q3 / upside236.25
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q3_cogs, upside_2028q3_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q3_ap_days
2028Q3 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2028q3_ap_balance
2028Q3 / upside5,197.53
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q3_ap_daily, upside_2028q3_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2028q3_ap_cash
2028Q3 / upside203.82
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_ap_balance, upside_2028q2_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q3_da
2028Q3 / upside22.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2028q3_profit_cash
2028Q3 / upside2,676.14
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q3_sbc, upside_2028q3_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2028q3_interest
2028Q3 / upside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q3_cash_tax
2028Q3 / upside320.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2028q3_other_wc
2028Q3 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2028q3_cash_uses
2028Q3 / upside485.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_interest, upside_2028q3_cash_tax, upside_2028q3_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2028q3_cash_after_uses
2028Q3 / upside2,191.14
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_profit_cash, upside_2028q3_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding
2028Q3 / upside1,318.99
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_cash_after_uses, upside_2028q3_ar_cash, upside_2028q3_inv_cash, upside_2028q3_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2028q3_customer_funding
2028Q3 / upside150.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q3_cfo
2028Q3 / upside1,468.99
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q3_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q3_capex
2028Q3 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2028q3_fcf
2028Q3 / upside1,368.99
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q3_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2028q3_dividend_quarter
2028Q3 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2028q3_preferred_cash
2028Q3 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2028q3_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2028q3_awards
2028Q3 / upside52.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2028q3_capital_claims
2028Q3 / upside127.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q3_preferred_cash, upside_2028q3_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2028q3_cash_after_claims
2028Q3 / upside1,241.52
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q3_capital_claims).
FY2028 sales expansion
upside_2028q4_growth
2028Q4 / upside130.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Annual sales quarter share
upside_2028q4_season
2028Q4 / upside27.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Revenue
upside_2028q4_revenue
2028Q4 / upside25,966.98
USD_millions
derived: Independent next-year expansion, not management guidance. Formula: multiply(upside_annual_target, upside_2028q4_growth, upside_2028q4_season).
Gross margin
upside_2028q4_gm
2028Q4 / upside13.3%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP gross profit
upside_2028q4_gross_profit
2028Q4 / upside3,453.61
USD_millions
derived: Includes COGS equity compensation and inventory economics. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_gm).
Cost of goods sold
upside_2028q4_cogs
2028Q4 / upside22,513.37
USD_millions
derived: Expense baseline for inventory and payable turnover. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_gross_profit).
Total stock compensation expense
upside_2028q4_sbc
2028Q4 / upside173.00
USD_millions
assumption: Q1 reference is approximately $106M after-tax adjustment plus $32M related tax effect; later periods are desk assumptions.
SBC already included in gross profit
upside_2028q4_cogs_sbc
2028Q4 / upside12.80
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
SBC in operating expense
upside_2028q4_opex_sbc
2028Q4 / upside160.20
USD_millions
derived: Avoid subtracting COGS SBC a second time. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_cogs_sbc).
Operating costs excluding SBC
upside_2028q4_cashopex
2028Q4 / upside640.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
GAAP operating expense
upside_2028q4_opex
2028Q4 / upside800.20
USD_millions
derived: Ordinary lease, compliance and development costs remain in operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_cashopex, upside_2028q4_opex_sbc).
GAAP operating income
upside_2028q4_operating_income
2028Q4 / upside2,653.41
USD_millions
derived: No non-GAAP cash-cost exclusion. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_opex).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q4_ar_quarter_days
2028Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q4_ar_daily
2028Q4 / upside288.52
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q4_revenue, upside_2028q4_ar_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q4_ar_days
2028Q4 / upside4,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending receivables
upside_2028q4_ar_balance
2028Q4 / upside11,540.88
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_ar_daily, upside_2028q4_ar_days).
Cash source from ar
upside_2028q4_ar_cash
2028Q4 / upside-641.16
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_ar_balance, upside_2028q4_ar_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q4_inv_quarter_days
2028Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q4_inv_daily
2028Q4 / upside250.15
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q4_cogs, upside_2028q4_inv_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q4_inv_days
2028Q4 / upside7,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending inventory
upside_2028q4_inv_balance
2028Q4 / upside17,510.40
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_inv_daily, upside_2028q4_inv_days).
Cash source from inv
upside_2028q4_inv_cash
2028Q4 / upside-972.80
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q3_inv_balance, upside_2028q4_inv_balance).
Standard quarter days
upside_2028q4_ap_quarter_days
2028Q4 / upside9,000.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Quarter revenue or COGS per model day
upside_2028q4_ap_daily
2028Q4 / upside250.15
USD_millions
derived: Turnover approximation using a 90-day quarter. Formula: divide(upside_2028q4_cogs, upside_2028q4_ap_quarter_days).
Ending balance turnover days
upside_2028q4_ap_days
2028Q4 / upside2,200.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Ending payables
upside_2028q4_ap_balance
2028Q4 / upside5,503.27
USD_millions
derived: Stock balance; not summed in annual outputs. Formula: multiply(upside_2028q4_ap_daily, upside_2028q4_ap_days).
Cash source from ap
upside_2028q4_ap_cash
2028Q4 / upside305.74
USD_millions
derived: Payable increases fund cash; receivable/inventory increases consume cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_ap_balance, upside_2028q3_ap_balance).
Depreciation and amortization
upside_2028q4_da
2028Q4 / upside23.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Operating profit plus noncash expense
upside_2028q4_profit_cash
2028Q4 / upside2,849.41
USD_millions
derived: SBC reverses once; dilution remains an economic cost. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_operating_income, upside_2028q4_sbc, upside_2028q4_da).
Cash interest net of cash investment income
upside_2028q4_interest
2028Q4 / upside85.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk bank-rate/coupon timing proxy; exact financing schedule not modeled.
Cash tax allowance
upside_2028q4_cash_tax
2028Q4 / upside350.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Prepaids, reserves and other working capital use
upside_2028q4_other_wc
2028Q4 / upside80.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Net interest, cash taxes and other operating uses
upside_2028q4_cash_uses
2028Q4 / upside515.00
USD_millions
derived: Debt principal and preferred dividends excluded here. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_interest, upside_2028q4_cash_tax, upside_2028q4_other_wc).
Cash profit after taxes and net interest
upside_2028q4_cash_after_uses
2028Q4 / upside2,334.41
USD_millions
derived: Operating cash-cost proxy. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_profit_cash, upside_2028q4_cash_uses).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding
upside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding
2028Q4 / upside1,026.19
USD_millions
derived: Sequential balance movements; not a fixed cash-conversion multiple. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_cash_after_uses, upside_2028q4_ar_cash, upside_2028q4_inv_cash, upside_2028q4_ap_cash).
Net customer deferred-revenue cash source
upside_2028q4_customer_funding
2028Q4 / upside100.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk net advance/deferral movement, not all customer cash receipts.
Operating cash flow proxy
upside_2028q4_cfo
2028Q4 / upside1,126.19
USD_millions
derived: Customer funding enters cash only. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q4_customer_funding).
Cash PP&E purchases
upside_2028q4_capex
2028Q4 / upside105.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
CFO less capex
upside_2028q4_fcf
2028Q4 / upside1,021.19
USD_millions
derived: Before equity investment purchases and financing claims. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_cfo, upside_2028q4_capex).
Quarter-year dividend factor
upside_2028q4_dividend_quarter
2028Q4 / upside25.0%
ratio
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash dividend
upside_2028q4_preferred_cash
2028Q4 / upside75.47
USD_millions
derived: September uses declared payment; later quarters assume full cash election. Formula: multiply(preferred_face, preferred_rate, upside_2028q4_dividend_quarter).
Equity-award tax withholding
upside_2028q4_awards
2028Q4 / upside54.00
USD_millions
assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance.
Preferred cash plus employee award taxes
upside_2028q4_capital_claims
2028Q4 / upside129.47
USD_millions
derived: Financing outflows; no additional operating expense. Formula: sum(upside_2028q4_preferred_cash, upside_2028q4_awards).
Cash after preferred and award taxes
upside_2028q4_cash_after_claims
2028Q4 / upside891.72
USD_millions
derived: Before debt repayments and any new financing, including current bank obligations. Formula: subtract(upside_2028q4_fcf, upside_2028q4_capital_claims).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2027_revenue
FY2027 / upside73,980.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2027_gross_profit
FY2027 / upside9,617.40
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2027_operating_income
FY2027 / upside6,957.80
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo_before_funding
FY2027 / upside2,496.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q2_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q3_cfo_before_funding, upside_2027q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
upside_fy2027_customer_funding
FY2027 / upside1,900.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_customer_funding, upside_2027q2_customer_funding, upside_2027q3_customer_funding, upside_2027q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2027_cfo
FY2027 / upside4,396.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2027_capex
FY2027 / upside310.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2027_fcf
FY2027 / upside4,086.25
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
upside_fy2027_preferred_cash
FY2027 / upside290.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_preferred_cash, upside_2027q2_preferred_cash, upside_2027q3_preferred_cash, upside_2027q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
upside_fy2027_cash_after_claims
FY2027 / upside3,624.11
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2027q4_cash_after_claims).
Revenue ($M)
upside_fy2028_revenue
FY2028 / upside96,174.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_revenue, upside_2028q2_revenue, upside_2028q3_revenue, upside_2028q4_revenue).
GAAP gross profit ($M)
upside_fy2028_gross_profit
FY2028 / upside12,791.14
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_gross_profit, upside_2028q2_gross_profit, upside_2028q3_gross_profit, upside_2028q4_gross_profit).
GAAP operating income ($M)
upside_fy2028_operating_income
FY2028 / upside9,737.94
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_operating_income, upside_2028q2_operating_income, upside_2028q3_operating_income, upside_2028q4_operating_income).
Cash before net deferred-revenue funding ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo_before_funding
FY2028 / upside5,275.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q2_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q3_cfo_before_funding, upside_2028q4_cfo_before_funding).
Net deferred-revenue cash source ($M)
upside_fy2028_customer_funding
FY2028 / upside750.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_customer_funding, upside_2028q2_customer_funding, upside_2028q3_customer_funding, upside_2028q4_customer_funding).
Operating cash flow proxy ($M)
upside_fy2028_cfo
FY2028 / upside6,025.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cfo, upside_2028q2_cfo, upside_2028q3_cfo, upside_2028q4_cfo).
Cash PP&E purchases ($M)
upside_fy2028_capex
FY2028 / upside390.00
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_capex, upside_2028q2_capex, upside_2028q3_capex, upside_2028q4_capex).
CFO less capex ($M)
upside_fy2028_fcf
FY2028 / upside5,635.84
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_fcf, upside_2028q2_fcf, upside_2028q3_fcf, upside_2028q4_fcf).
Preferred cash dividend ($M)
upside_fy2028_preferred_cash
FY2028 / upside301.88
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_preferred_cash, upside_2028q2_preferred_cash, upside_2028q3_preferred_cash, upside_2028q4_preferred_cash).
Cash after preferred and award taxes ($M)
upside_fy2028_cash_after_claims
FY2028 / upside5,129.97
USD_millions
derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2028q1_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q2_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q3_cash_after_claims, upside_2028q4_cash_after_claims).

Model boundaries

AI system growth through the working-capital and financing cycle

Research reviewed 2026-09-19

Can system delivery fund inventory and receivables while preserving cash after senior claims?

FY2026 revenue was $39.063B, gross profit $4.227B and operating income $2.770B. CFO was negative $6.810B, despite $1.881B net deferred-revenue funding, with $8.877B inventory and $3.922B receivable cash uses. PP&E spending adds $162M. June inventory was $12.896B and current receivables $6.125B. Cash $7.521B followed $9.479B financing cash; it is distinct from internally generated cash. Loans totaled about $4.056B including $2.040B current, with convertible carrying value $4.664B and preferred face $4.3125B. Preferred dividends accrue at 7%; the first cash dividend was declared for September 1. Annual sales guidance is $65B-$72B and Q1 $14.5B-$15.5B. The model tests collection and stocking requirements instead of equating sales growth with cash.

The competing explanation

Large orders can turn into expensive inventory or extended customer credit before deployment. Pricing pressure, product transitions and concentrated customers can reduce margin. Capital raised to fund orders can sustain activity while diluting or subordinating common owners.

Risks to track

Next checkpoints

Data coverage and open work

This review: First completed working-capital model with actual financing context, preferred cash and current-debt scope explicit.

What the memory says

State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with a clear path above, ordinary volume, closed weak, and crowded with peers

300 similar days

Vs the market, in pointsLowMiddleHighShare up
1 session-3.6+0.1+4.753%
5 sessions-13.3-0.3+11.948%
10 sessions-16.7+0.0+12.650%

Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.

Notes on this name

No published notes on this name yet.

Scorecard: 0 notes scored

Next report: 2026-08-09 (source: estimated from 10-Q filed 2026-05-11 plus 90 days)

Provenance

  1. [1] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  2. [2] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  3. [3] reported: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  4. [4] derived: RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  5. [5] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  6. [6] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  7. [7] reported: GrossProfit, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  8. [8] derived: GrossProfit, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  9. [9] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  10. [10] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  11. [11] reported: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  12. [12] derived: OperatingIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  13. [13] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  14. [14] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  15. [15] reported: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  16. [16] derived: NetIncomeLoss, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  17. [17] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  18. [18] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  19. [19] reported: EarningsPerShareDiluted, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  20. [20] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  21. [21] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  22. [22] reported: WeightedAverageNumberOfDilutedSharesOutstanding, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  23. [23] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-25-000005, 10-Q filed 2025-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  24. [24] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-25-000006, 10-Q filed 2025-02-25; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  25. [25] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-25-000014, 10-Q filed 2025-05-12; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  26. [26] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  27. [27] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  28. [28] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  29. [29] reported: CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  30. [30] reported: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  31. [31] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  32. [32] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  33. [33] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  34. [34] reported: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  35. [35] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  36. [36] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  37. [37] derived: PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  38. [38] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-25-000030, 10-Q filed 2025-11-07; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  39. [39] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000007, 10-Q filed 2026-02-06; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  40. [40] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000014, 10-Q filed 2026-05-11; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json
  41. [41] derived: NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities - PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment, accession 0001375365-26-000022, 10-K filed 2026-08-31; retrieved 2026-09-19T21:50:46+00:00 from https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001375365.json

What the author read

Compiled 2026-09-19T21:50:47.718976+00:00 · authored 7756a8fcdfac · generated 2669338b0559 · JSON

Daily notes · Scorecard