$RIVN
Business
Rivian manufactures consumer R1 and R2 vehicles and commercial vans. Its software/services segment includes the Volkswagen technology joint venture, remarketing and vehicle services. R2 external deliveries began June 9, 2026. Delivery mix, manufacturing absorption and development revenue drive earnings, while factory investment and working capital determine funding needs.
Three drivers
- R2 deliveries, blended selling price and manufacturing margin
- Volkswagen performance-obligation recognition versus new cash
- Capex, conditional funding and common-equity dilution
Thesis
Our view
R2 expands the volume opportunity, but lower blended selling prices and ramp costs make unit economics decisive. Software gross profit supports the consolidated result while some revenue recognizes past cash. The model therefore tests operating losses and cash requirements separately from strategic financing announcements.
What changes it
Look for delivery growth accompanied by automotive gross-margin improvement excluding credits, then verify that capex and working capital fit the funding actually received.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 874.01 | 1,734.0†2 | 1,240.03 | 1,303.04 | 1,558.01 | 1,286.0†2 | 1,381.03 | 1,658.04 |
| Gross profit ($M) | -392.05 | 170.0†6 | 206.07 | -206.08 | 24.05 | 120.0†6 | 119.07 | 179.08 |
| Operating income ($M) | -1,169.09 | -661.0†10 | -655.011 | -1,114.012 | -983.09 | -833.0†10 | -881.011 | -836.012 |
| Net income ($M) | -1,100.013 | -744.0†14 | -545.015 | -1,117.016 | -1,173.013 | -811.0†14 | -416.015 | -833.016 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -1.0817 | — | -0.4818 | -0.9719 | -0.9617 | — | -0.3318 | -0.6319 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 1,014.020 | — | 1,137.021 | 1,155.022 | 1,220.020 | — | 1,249.021 | 1,325.022 |
| Cash ($M) | 5,396.023 | 5,294.024 | 4,693.025 | 4,812.026 | 4,441.027 | 3,579.028 | 2,845.029 | 3,592.028 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | 5,468.030 | 4,441.031 | 4,443.032 | 4,436.033 | 4,438.034 | 4,440.035 | 4,442.036 | 4,444.035 |
| Cash from operations ($M) | -876.0†37 | 1,183.0†38 | -188.039 | 64.0†40 | 26.0†37 | -681.0†38 | -703.039 | -487.0†40 |
| Capex ($M) | 277.0†41 | 327.0†42 | 338.043 | 462.0†44 | 447.0†41 | 463.0†42 | 372.043 | 362.0†44 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | -1,153.0†45 | 856.0†46 | -526.0†47 | -398.0†48 | -421.0†45 | -1,144.0†46 | -1,075.0†47 | -849.0†48 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 1,972.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 2,282.9 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 2,207.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 2,467.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Consolidated revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
R2 delivery ramp, software recognition and the funding requirement
Vehicle deliveries times a blended selling-price assumption produce new-EV revenue. Add automotive regulatory credits separately. Software/services revenue includes a separately visible Volkswagen combined-performance-obligation amount and other service sales; non-automotive credits bridge the revenue-note and segment classifications. Derive automotive gross profit before credits and software gross profit separately, subtract GAAP operating expenses, and expose SBC/D&A to derive adjusted EBITDA. CFO includes cash interest/tax, inventory/receivables and release of previously collected deferred revenue. FCF excludes financing. Only already completed July equity issuance is added to future-period cash; conditional VW/Uber/DOE funding stays outside.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 delivered vehicles | 2026Q2 | 1,219,400.0% | reported. Delivered vehicles, not production volume. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 vehicle revenue | June/July 2026 | 1,037.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 auto gp | June/July 2026 | -36.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 automotive GP before credits | H1 2026 | -262.00 | derived. Automotive segment credit scope, not all consolidated credits. |
| q2 vw recognition | June/July 2026 | 308.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 deferred revenue use | H1 2026 | 362.00 | reported. USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 company EBITDA scope difference | H1 2026 | 2.00 | derived. Common-attributable result and scoped D&A differ from the consolidated calculation by $2M. |
| H1 cfo | H1 2026 | -1,190.00 | reported. USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 CFO less capex | H1 2026 | -1,924.00 | derived. Before equity funding. |
| H1 completed financing | H1 2026 | 1,300.00 | reported. USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| June cash and short-term investments | June 2026 | 5,310.00 | derived. Before July equity and all post-June cash uses; excludes undrawn facilities. |
| Completed July public equity net proceeds | July 2026 | 1,300.00 | reported. Company approximate $1.3B net proceeds; 86.25M shares at $15.50 gross price. Approximation is not precise $1.32B net proceeds. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| debt face | June/July 2026 | 4,475.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| vw loan | June/July 2026 | 1,000.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| remaining uber | June/July 2026 | 950.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| doe principal | June/July 2026 | 4,006.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| doe capitalized interest | June/July 2026 | 494.00 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 mind gain | H1 2026 | 506.00 | reported. USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Source · 2026-07-30 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Consolidated gross profit ($M) | New EV revenue ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Software/services segment revenue ($M) | Completed equity financing cash ($M) | Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -1,078.75 | -1,608.75 | 530.00 | 1,767.00 | -673.75 | -23.75 | 1,260.00 | -1,163.75 | 487.00 | 1,300.00 | -308.75 |
| 2026Q4 | -1,089.04 | -1,679.04 | 590.00 | 1,969.00 | -649.04 | 22.96 | 1,452.00 | -1,157.04 | 492.00 | 0.00 | -1,679.04 |
| 2027Q1 | -932.96 | -1,582.96 | 650.00 | 1,708.00 | -597.96 | 46.04 | 1,216.00 | -1,123.96 | 477.00 | 0.00 | -1,582.96 |
| 2027Q2 | -935.50 | -1,685.50 | 750.00 | 1,893.00 | -585.50 | 70.50 | 1,386.00 | -1,129.50 | 492.00 | 0.00 | -1,685.50 |
| FY2026 | -3,357.79 | -5,211.79 | 1,854.00 | 6,775.00 | -2,173.79 | 297.21 | 4,599.00 | -4,037.79 | 1,967.00 | 2,600.00 | -2,611.79 |
| FY2027 | -3,767.79 | -6,867.79 | 3,100.00 | 7,898.00 | -2,337.79 | 340.21 | 5,860.00 | -4,549.79 | 1,978.00 | 0.00 | -6,867.79 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Consolidated gross profit ($M) | New EV revenue ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Software/services segment revenue ($M) | Completed equity financing cash ($M) | Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -897.64 | -1,393.64 | 496.00 | 1,972.00 | -547.64 | 62.36 | 1,440.00 | -1,037.64 | 502.00 | 1,300.00 | -93.64 |
| 2026Q4 | -866.36 | -1,386.36 | 520.00 | 2,282.93 | -501.36 | 136.94 | 1,720.93 | -1,009.36 | 522.00 | 0.00 | -1,386.36 |
| 2027Q1 | -712.45 | -1,312.45 | 600.00 | 2,207.00 | -432.45 | 196.55 | 1,650.00 | -958.45 | 532.00 | 0.00 | -1,312.45 |
| 2027Q2 | -684.35 | -1,359.35 | 675.00 | 2,467.00 | -379.35 | 266.65 | 1,885.00 | -923.35 | 557.00 | 0.00 | -1,359.35 |
| FY2026 | -2,954.00 | -4,704.00 | 1,750.00 | 7,293.93 | -1,900.00 | 497.30 | 5,047.93 | -3,764.00 | 2,012.00 | 2,600.00 | -2,104.00 |
| FY2027 | -2,690.47 | -5,590.47 | 2,900.00 | 10,546.00 | -1,430.47 | 1,217.53 | 8,168.00 | -3,642.47 | 2,278.00 | 0.00 | -5,590.47 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Consolidated revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Consolidated gross profit ($M) | New EV revenue ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Software/services segment revenue ($M) | Completed equity financing cash ($M) | Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -839.39 | -1,329.39 | 490.00 | 2,153.00 | -479.39 | 150.60 | 1,591.00 | -969.39 | 522.00 | 1,300.00 | -29.39 |
| 2026Q4 | -782.19 | -1,282.19 | 500.00 | 2,479.31 | -402.19 | 249.81 | 1,877.31 | -910.19 | 552.00 | 0.00 | -1,282.19 |
| 2027Q1 | -618.34 | -1,228.34 | 610.00 | 2,589.00 | -333.34 | 320.66 | 1,972.00 | -859.34 | 582.00 | 0.00 | -1,228.34 |
| 2027Q2 | -601.80 | -1,331.80 | 730.00 | 3,002.00 | -271.80 | 414.20 | 2,345.00 | -815.80 | 622.00 | 0.00 | -1,331.80 |
| FY2026 | -2,811.58 | -4,535.58 | 1,724.00 | 7,671.31 | -1,732.58 | 698.42 | 5,355.31 | -3,596.58 | 2,062.00 | 2,600.00 | -1,935.58 |
| FY2027 | -2,327.78 | -5,447.77 | 3,120.00 | 13,002.00 | -937.78 | 1,940.22 | 10,274.00 | -3,149.78 | 2,588.00 | 0.00 | -5,447.77 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 3,039.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 vehicle revenue h1_vehicle_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 1,887.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 software revenue h1_software_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 988.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 gross profit h1_gross_profit | H1 2026 / shared | 298.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | -1,717.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 adj ebitda h1_adj_ebitda | H1 2026 / shared | -851.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | -1,190.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 734.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 completed financing h1_completed_financing | H1 2026 / shared | 1,300.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 auto revenue h1_auto_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 2,051.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 auto gp h1_auto_gp | H1 2026 / shared | -98.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 software gp h1_software_gp | H1 2026 / shared | 396.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 total credits h1_total_credits | H1 2026 / shared | 167.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 auto credits h1_auto_credits | H1 2026 / shared | 164.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 software credits h1_software_credits | H1 2026 / shared | 3.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 vw recognition h1_vw_recognition | H1 2026 / shared | 590.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 deferred revenue use h1_deferred_revenue_use | H1 2026 / shared | 362.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 sbc h1_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 433.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 da h1_da | H1 2026 / shared | 431.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 mind gain h1_mind_gain | H1 2026 / shared | 506.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 mind cash out h1_mind_cash_out | H1 2026 / shared | 114.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 stock bonus settlement h1_stock_bonus_settlement | H1 2026 / shared | 110.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions; automotive/software credit allocation reconciles segment data with Note 3. H1 financing is April VW $1B plus May Uber $300M. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 CFO less capex h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | -1,924.00 USD_millions | derived: Before equity funding. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| H1 FCF plus completed equity h1_cash_after_financing | H1 2026 / shared | -624.00 USD_millions | derived: Excludes Mind deconsolidation and other investing/financing movements. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, h1_completed_financing). |
| H1 automotive GP before credits h1_auto_core_gp | H1 2026 / shared | -262.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive segment credit scope, not all consolidated credits. Formula: subtract(h1_auto_gp, h1_auto_credits). |
| H1 consolidated operating earnings plus total D&A/SBC h1_ebitda_simple | H1 2026 / shared | -853.00 USD_millions | derived: Analytical consolidated sum, not company common-attributable adjusted EBITDA. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, h1_da, h1_sbc). |
| H1 company EBITDA scope difference h1_ebitda_scope | H1 2026 / shared | 2.00 USD_millions | derived: Common-attributable result and scoped D&A differ from the consolidated calculation by $2M. Formula: subtract(h1_adj_ebitda, h1_ebitda_simple). |
| cash cash | June/July 2026 / shared | 3,592.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| securities securities | June/July 2026 / shared | 1,718.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| debt face debt_face | June/July 2026 / shared | 4,475.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 vehicle revenue q2_vehicle_revenue | June/July 2026 / shared | 1,037.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 total credits q2_total_credits | June/July 2026 / shared | 108.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 auto credits q2_auto_credits | June/July 2026 / shared | 106.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 software credits q2_software_credits | June/July 2026 / shared | 2.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 software note q2_software_note | June/July 2026 / shared | 513.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 software segment q2_software_segment | June/July 2026 / shared | 515.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 vw recognition q2_vw_recognition | June/July 2026 / shared | 308.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| q2 auto gp q2_auto_gp | June/July 2026 / shared | -36.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| remaining uber remaining_uber | June/July 2026 / shared | 950.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| vw loan vw_loan | June/July 2026 / shared | 1,000.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| doe principal doe_principal | June/July 2026 / shared | 4,006.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| doe capitalized interest doe_capitalized_interest | June/July 2026 / shared | 494.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| June cash and short-term investments liquidity | June 2026 / shared | 5,310.00 USD_millions | derived: Before July equity and all post-June cash uses; excludes undrawn facilities. Formula: sum(cash, securities). |
| Completed July public equity net proceeds july_equity | July 2026 / shared | 1,300.00 USD_millions | reported: Company approximate $1.3B net proceeds; 86.25M shares at $15.50 gross price. Approximation is not precise $1.32B net proceeds. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| H1 delivered vehicles h1_deliveries | H1 2026 / shared | 2,255,900.0% ratio | reported: Delivered vehicles, count represented dimensionlessly for multiplication. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Q2 delivered vehicles q2_deliveries | 2026Q2 / shared | 1,219,400.0% ratio | reported: Delivered vehicles, not production volume. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA low fy26_ebitda_low | FY2026 / shared | -2,000.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA high fy26_ebitda_high | FY2026 / shared | -1,800.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA endpoint sum fy26_ebitda_sum | FY2026 / shared | -3,800.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_ebitda_low, fy26_ebitda_high). |
| FY2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint fy26_ebitda | FY2026 / shared | -1,900.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_ebitda_sum, two). |
| FY2026 capex low fy26_capex_low | FY2026 / shared | 1,700.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 capex high fy26_capex_high | FY2026 / shared | 1,800.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-07-30 |
| FY2026 capex endpoint sum fy26_capex_sum | FY2026 / shared | 3,500.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_capex_low, fy26_capex_high). |
| FY2026 capex midpoint fy26_capex | FY2026 / shared | 1,750.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_capex_sum, two). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2026q3_deliveries | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,800,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2026q3_asp | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,260.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_deliveries, downside_2026q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2026q3_auto_credits | 2026Q3 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2026q3_auto_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,280.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2026q3_vw_recognition | 2026Q3 / downside | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2026q3_other_services | 2026Q3 / downside | 195.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2026q3_software_credits | 2026Q3 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2026q3_software_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 487.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_vw_recognition, downside_2026q3_other_services, downside_2026q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,767.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_auto_revenue, downside_2026q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2026q3_auto_core_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | -17.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2026q3_auto_core_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | -214.20 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2026q3_auto_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | -194.20 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_auto_core_gp, downside_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2026q3_software_margin | 2026Q3 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2026q3_software_gp | 2026Q3 / downside | 170.45 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_software_revenue, downside_2026q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / downside | -23.75 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_auto_gp, downside_2026q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2026q3_gaap_opex | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | -1,163.75 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / downside | -673.75 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2026q3_deferred_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 405.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use, downside_2026q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | -1,078.75 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 530.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | -1,608.75 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2026q3_equity_timing | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2026q3_completed_financing | 2026Q3 / downside | 1,300.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2026q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2026q3_cash_after_financing | 2026Q3 / downside | -308.75 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2026q4_deliveries | 2026Q4 / downside | 2,200,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2026q4_asp | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,452.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_deliveries, downside_2026q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2026q4_auto_credits | 2026Q4 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2026q4_auto_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,477.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2026q4_vw_recognition | 2026Q4 / downside | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2026q4_other_services | 2026Q4 / downside | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2026q4_software_credits | 2026Q4 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2026q4_software_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 492.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_vw_recognition, downside_2026q4_other_services, downside_2026q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,969.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_auto_revenue, downside_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2026q4_auto_core_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | -12.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2026q4_auto_core_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | -174.24 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2026q4_auto_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | -149.24 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_auto_core_gp, downside_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2026q4_software_margin | 2026Q4 / downside | 35.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2026q4_software_gp | 2026Q4 / downside | 172.20 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_software_revenue, downside_2026q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 22.96 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_auto_gp, downside_2026q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2026q4_gaap_opex | 2026Q4 / downside | 1,180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | -1,157.04 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 248.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / downside | -649.04 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / downside | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2026q4_deferred_use | 2026Q4 / downside | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 440.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use, downside_2026q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | -1,089.04 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 590.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | -1,679.04 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2026q4_equity_timing | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2026q4_completed_financing | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2026q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2026q4_cash_after_financing | 2026Q4 / downside | -1,679.04 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2027q1_deliveries | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,900,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2027q1_asp | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,216.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_deliveries, downside_2027q1_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q1_auto_credits | 2027Q1 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2027q1_auto_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,231.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2027q1_vw_recognition | 2027Q1 / downside | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2027q1_other_services | 2027Q1 / downside | 205.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q1_software_credits | 2027Q1 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2027q1_software_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 477.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_vw_recognition, downside_2027q1_other_services, downside_2027q1_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,708.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_auto_revenue, downside_2027q1_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2027q1_auto_core_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | -10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2027q1_auto_core_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | -121.60 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q1_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2027q1_auto_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | -106.60 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_auto_core_gp, downside_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2027q1_software_margin | 2027Q1 / downside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2027q1_software_gp | 2027Q1 / downside | 152.64 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_software_revenue, downside_2027q1_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 46.04 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_auto_gp, downside_2027q1_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2027q1_gaap_opex | 2027Q1 / downside | 1,170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | -1,123.96 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 256.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / downside | -597.96 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 120.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2027q1_deferred_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 335.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use, downside_2027q1_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | -932.96 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 650.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -1,582.96 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2027q1_equity_timing | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2027q1_completed_financing | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2027q1_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2027q1_cash_after_financing | 2027Q1 / downside | -1,582.96 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2027q2_deliveries | 2027Q2 / downside | 2,200,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2027q2_asp | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,386.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_deliveries, downside_2027q2_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q2_auto_credits | 2027Q2 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2027q2_auto_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,401.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2027q2_vw_recognition | 2027Q2 / downside | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2027q2_other_services | 2027Q2 / downside | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q2_software_credits | 2027Q2 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2027q2_software_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 492.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_vw_recognition, downside_2027q2_other_services, downside_2027q2_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,893.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_auto_revenue, downside_2027q2_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2027q2_auto_core_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | -7.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2027q2_auto_core_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | -97.02 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q2_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2027q2_auto_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | -82.02 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_auto_core_gp, downside_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2027q2_software_margin | 2027Q2 / downside | 31.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2027q2_software_gp | 2027Q2 / downside | 152.52 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_software_revenue, downside_2027q2_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 70.50 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_auto_gp, downside_2027q2_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2027q2_gaap_opex | 2027Q2 / downside | 1,200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | -1,129.50 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 264.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / downside | -585.50 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 130.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2027q2_deferred_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use, downside_2027q2_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | -935.50 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 750.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -1,685.50 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2027q2_equity_timing | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2027q2_completed_financing | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2027q2_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2027q2_cash_after_financing | 2027Q2 / downside | -1,685.50 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2027q3_deliveries | 2027Q3 / downside | 2,500,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2027q3_asp | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,550.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_deliveries, downside_2027q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q3_auto_credits | 2027Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2027q3_auto_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,565.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2027q3_vw_recognition | 2027Q3 / downside | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2027q3_other_services | 2027Q3 / downside | 235.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q3_software_credits | 2027Q3 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2027q3_software_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 497.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_vw_recognition, downside_2027q3_other_services, downside_2027q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 2,062.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_auto_revenue, downside_2027q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2027q3_auto_core_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | -4.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2027q3_auto_core_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | -69.75 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2027q3_auto_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | -54.75 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_auto_core_gp, downside_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2027q3_software_margin | 2027Q3 / downside | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2027q3_software_gp | 2027Q3 / downside | 149.10 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_software_revenue, downside_2027q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 94.35 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_auto_gp, downside_2027q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2027q3_gaap_opex | 2027Q3 / downside | 1,240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | -1,145.65 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 272.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / downside | -583.65 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2027q3_deferred_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 365.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use, downside_2027q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | -948.65 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -1,798.65 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2027q3_equity_timing | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2027q3_completed_financing | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2027q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2027q3_cash_after_financing | 2027Q3 / downside | -1,798.65 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles downside_2027q4_deliveries | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,800,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery downside_2027q4_asp | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue downside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,708.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_deliveries, downside_2027q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q4_auto_credits | 2027Q4 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue downside_2027q4_auto_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,723.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue downside_2027q4_vw_recognition | 2027Q4 / downside | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue downside_2027q4_other_services | 2027Q4 / downside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits downside_2027q4_software_credits | 2027Q4 / downside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue downside_2027q4_software_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 512.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_vw_recognition, downside_2027q4_other_services, downside_2027q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,235.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_auto_revenue, downside_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits downside_2027q4_auto_core_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | -2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits downside_2027q4_auto_core_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | -34.16 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit downside_2027q4_auto_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | -19.16 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_auto_core_gp, downside_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin downside_2027q4_software_margin | 2027Q4 / downside | 29.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit downside_2027q4_software_gp | 2027Q4 / downside | 148.48 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_software_revenue, downside_2027q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 129.32 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_auto_gp, downside_2027q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense downside_2027q4_gaap_opex | 2027Q4 / downside | 1,280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | -1,150.68 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / downside | -570.68 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use downside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / downside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment downside_2027q4_deferred_use | 2027Q4 / downside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments downside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 380.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use, downside_2027q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | -950.68 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | -1,800.68 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter downside_2027q4_equity_timing | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds downside_2027q4_completed_financing | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, downside_2027q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing downside_2027q4_cash_after_financing | 2027Q4 / downside | -1,800.68 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 6,775.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_vehicle_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 4,599.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_software_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 1,967.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_software_revenue, downside_2026q3_software_revenue, downside_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 297.21 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, downside_2026q3_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | -4,037.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / downside | -2,173.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | -3,357.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 1,854.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | -5,211.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) downside_fy2026_completed_financing | FY2026 / downside | 2,600.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_completed_financing, downside_2026q3_completed_financing, downside_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_financing | FY2026 / downside | -2,611.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_financing, downside_2026q3_cash_after_financing, downside_2026q4_cash_after_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 7,898.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_vehicle_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 5,860.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, downside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_software_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 1,978.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_software_revenue, downside_2027q2_software_revenue, downside_2027q3_software_revenue, downside_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 340.21 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | -4,549.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / downside | -2,337.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | -3,767.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 3,100.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | -6,867.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) downside_fy2027_completed_financing | FY2027 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_completed_financing, downside_2027q2_completed_financing, downside_2027q3_completed_financing, downside_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_financing | FY2027 / downside | -6,867.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_financing, downside_2027q2_cash_after_financing, downside_2027q3_cash_after_financing, downside_2027q4_cash_after_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2026q3_deliveries | 2026Q3 / base | 2,000,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2026q3_asp | 2026Q3 / base | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2026q3_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,440.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_deliveries, base_2026q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2026q3_auto_credits | 2026Q3 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2026q3_auto_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,470.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2026q3_vw_recognition | 2026Q3 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2026q3_other_services | 2026Q3 / base | 200.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2026q3_software_credits | 2026Q3 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2026q3_software_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 502.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_vw_recognition, base_2026q3_other_services, base_2026q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 1,972.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_auto_revenue, base_2026q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2026q3_auto_core_margin | 2026Q3 / base | -11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2026q3_auto_core_gp | 2026Q3 / base | -158.40 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2026q3_auto_gp | 2026Q3 / base | -128.40 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_auto_core_gp, base_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2026q3_software_margin | 2026Q3 / base | 38.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2026q3_software_gp | 2026Q3 / base | 190.76 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_software_revenue, base_2026q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / base | 62.36 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_auto_gp, base_2026q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2026q3_gaap_opex | 2026Q3 / base | 1,100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | -1,037.64 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / base | -547.64 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / base | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2026q3_deferred_use | 2026Q3 / base | 175.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use, base_2026q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | -897.64 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 496.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | -1,393.64 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2026q3_equity_timing | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2026q3_completed_financing | 2026Q3 / base | 1,300.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2026q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2026q3_cash_after_financing | 2026Q3 / base | -93.64 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2026q4_deliveries | 2026Q4 / base | 2,494,100.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2026q4_asp | 2026Q4 / base | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2026q4_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1,720.93 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_deliveries, base_2026q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2026q4_auto_credits | 2026Q4 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2026q4_auto_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 1,760.93 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2026q4_vw_recognition | 2026Q4 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2026q4_other_services | 2026Q4 / base | 220.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2026q4_software_credits | 2026Q4 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2026q4_software_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 522.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_vw_recognition, base_2026q4_other_services, base_2026q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 2,282.93 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_auto_revenue, base_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2026q4_auto_core_margin | 2026Q4 / base | -6.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2026q4_auto_core_gp | 2026Q4 / base | -111.86 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2026q4_auto_gp | 2026Q4 / base | -71.86 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_auto_core_gp, base_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2026q4_software_margin | 2026Q4 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2026q4_software_gp | 2026Q4 / base | 208.80 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_software_revenue, base_2026q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 136.94 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_auto_gp, base_2026q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2026q4_gaap_opex | 2026Q4 / base | 1,146.30 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | -1,009.36 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 248.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / base | -501.36 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2026q4_deferred_use | 2026Q4 / base | 175.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 365.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use, base_2026q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | -866.36 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 520.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | -1,386.36 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2026q4_equity_timing | 2026Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2026q4_completed_financing | 2026Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2026q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2026q4_cash_after_financing | 2026Q4 / base | -1,386.36 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2027q1_deliveries | 2027Q1 / base | 2,500,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2027q1_asp | 2027Q1 / base | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2027q1_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,650.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_deliveries, base_2027q1_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2027q1_auto_credits | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2027q1_auto_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,675.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2027q1_vw_recognition | 2027Q1 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2027q1_other_services | 2027Q1 / base | 230.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2027q1_software_credits | 2027Q1 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2027q1_software_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 532.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_vw_recognition, base_2027q1_other_services, base_2027q1_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 2,207.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_auto_revenue, base_2027q1_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2027q1_auto_core_margin | 2027Q1 / base | -2.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2027q1_auto_core_gp | 2027Q1 / base | -41.25 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q1_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2027q1_auto_gp | 2027Q1 / base | -16.25 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_auto_core_gp, base_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2027q1_software_margin | 2027Q1 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2027q1_software_gp | 2027Q1 / base | 212.80 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_software_revenue, base_2027q1_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 196.55 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_auto_gp, base_2027q1_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2027q1_gaap_opex | 2027Q1 / base | 1,155.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | -958.45 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 256.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / base | -432.45 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / base | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2027q1_deferred_use | 2027Q1 / base | 165.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 280.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use, base_2027q1_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | -712.45 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 600.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | -1,312.45 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2027q1_equity_timing | 2027Q1 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2027q1_completed_financing | 2027Q1 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2027q1_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2027q1_cash_after_financing | 2027Q1 / base | -1,312.45 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2027q2_deliveries | 2027Q2 / base | 2,900,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2027q2_asp | 2027Q2 / base | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2027q2_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,885.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_deliveries, base_2027q2_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2027q2_auto_credits | 2027Q2 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2027q2_auto_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,910.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2027q2_vw_recognition | 2027Q2 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2027q2_other_services | 2027Q2 / base | 255.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2027q2_software_credits | 2027Q2 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2027q2_software_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 557.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_vw_recognition, base_2027q2_other_services, base_2027q2_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 2,467.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_auto_revenue, base_2027q2_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2027q2_auto_core_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 1.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2027q2_auto_core_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 18.85 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q2_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2027q2_auto_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 43.85 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_auto_core_gp, base_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2027q2_software_margin | 2027Q2 / base | 40.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2027q2_software_gp | 2027Q2 / base | 222.80 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_software_revenue, base_2027q2_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 266.65 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_auto_gp, base_2027q2_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2027q2_gaap_opex | 2027Q2 / base | 1,190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | -923.35 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 264.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / base | -379.35 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / base | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2027q2_deferred_use | 2027Q2 / base | 165.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 305.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use, base_2027q2_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | -684.35 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 675.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | -1,359.35 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2027q2_equity_timing | 2027Q2 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2027q2_completed_financing | 2027Q2 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2027q2_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2027q2_cash_after_financing | 2027Q2 / base | -1,359.35 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2027q3_deliveries | 2027Q3 / base | 3,400,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2027q3_asp | 2027Q3 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2027q3_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 2,176.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_deliveries, base_2027q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2027q3_auto_credits | 2027Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2027q3_auto_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 2,201.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2027q3_vw_recognition | 2027Q3 / base | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2027q3_other_services | 2027Q3 / base | 285.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2027q3_software_credits | 2027Q3 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2027q3_software_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 577.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_vw_recognition, base_2027q3_other_services, base_2027q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 2,778.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_auto_revenue, base_2027q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2027q3_auto_core_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 4.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2027q3_auto_core_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 87.04 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2027q3_auto_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 112.04 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_auto_core_gp, base_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2027q3_software_margin | 2027Q3 / base | 39.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2027q3_software_gp | 2027Q3 / base | 225.03 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_software_revenue, base_2027q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 337.07 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_auto_gp, base_2027q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2027q3_gaap_opex | 2027Q3 / base | 1,235.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | -897.93 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 272.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / base | -335.93 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / base | 120.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2027q3_deferred_use | 2027Q3 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 325.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use, base_2027q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | -660.93 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 775.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | -1,435.93 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2027q3_equity_timing | 2027Q3 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2027q3_completed_financing | 2027Q3 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2027q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2027q3_cash_after_financing | 2027Q3 / base | -1,435.93 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles base_2027q4_deliveries | 2027Q4 / base | 3,900,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery base_2027q4_asp | 2027Q4 / base | 0.06 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue base_2027q4_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 2,457.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_deliveries, base_2027q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits base_2027q4_auto_credits | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue base_2027q4_auto_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 2,482.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue base_2027q4_vw_recognition | 2027Q4 / base | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue base_2027q4_other_services | 2027Q4 / base | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits base_2027q4_software_credits | 2027Q4 / base | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue base_2027q4_software_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 612.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_vw_recognition, base_2027q4_other_services, base_2027q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 3,094.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_auto_revenue, base_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits base_2027q4_auto_core_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 6.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits base_2027q4_auto_core_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 159.71 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit base_2027q4_auto_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 184.71 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_auto_core_gp, base_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin base_2027q4_software_margin | 2027Q4 / base | 38.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit base_2027q4_software_gp | 2027Q4 / base | 232.56 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_software_revenue, base_2027q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 417.26 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_auto_gp, base_2027q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense base_2027q4_gaap_opex | 2027Q4 / base | 1,280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | -862.74 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / base | -282.74 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes base_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use base_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / base | 140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment base_2027q4_deferred_use | 2027Q4 / base | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments base_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use, base_2027q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | -632.74 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | -1,482.74 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter base_2027q4_equity_timing | 2027Q4 / base | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds base_2027q4_completed_financing | 2027Q4 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, base_2027q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing base_2027q4_cash_after_financing | 2027Q4 / base | -1,482.74 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 7,293.93 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) base_fy2026_vehicle_revenue | FY2026 / base | 5,047.93 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2026q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) base_fy2026_software_revenue | FY2026 / base | 2,012.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_software_revenue, base_2026q3_software_revenue, base_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 497.30 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, base_2026q3_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | -3,764.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / base | -1,900.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | -2,954.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 1,750.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | -4,704.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) base_fy2026_completed_financing | FY2026 / base | 2,600.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_completed_financing, base_2026q3_completed_financing, base_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_financing | FY2026 / base | -2,104.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_financing, base_2026q3_cash_after_financing, base_2026q4_cash_after_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 10,546.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) base_fy2027_vehicle_revenue | FY2027 / base | 8,168.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, base_2027q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) base_fy2027_software_revenue | FY2027 / base | 2,278.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_software_revenue, base_2027q2_software_revenue, base_2027q3_software_revenue, base_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 1,217.53 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | -3,642.47 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / base | -1,430.47 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | -2,690.47 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 2,900.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | -5,590.47 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) base_fy2027_completed_financing | FY2027 / base | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_completed_financing, base_2027q2_completed_financing, base_2027q3_completed_financing, base_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_financing | FY2027 / base | -5,590.47 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_financing, base_2027q2_cash_after_financing, base_2027q3_cash_after_financing, base_2027q4_cash_after_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2026q3_deliveries | 2026Q3 / upside | 2,150,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2026q3_asp | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,591.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_deliveries, upside_2026q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2026q3_auto_credits | 2026Q3 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2026q3_auto_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,631.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2026q3_vw_recognition | 2026Q3 / upside | 315.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2026q3_other_services | 2026Q3 / upside | 205.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2026q3_software_credits | 2026Q3 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2026q3_software_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 522.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_vw_recognition, upside_2026q3_other_services, upside_2026q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 2,153.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_auto_revenue, upside_2026q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2026q3_auto_core_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | -6.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2026q3_auto_core_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | -103.42 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2026q3_auto_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | -63.42 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_auto_core_gp, upside_2026q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2026q3_software_margin | 2026Q3 / upside | 41.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2026q3_software_gp | 2026Q3 / upside | 214.02 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_software_revenue, upside_2026q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2026q3_gross_profit | 2026Q3 / upside | 150.60 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_auto_gp, upside_2026q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2026q3_gaap_opex | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,120.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | -969.39 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 240.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / upside | -479.39 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 170.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2026q3_deferred_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 165.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 360.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use, upside_2026q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | -839.39 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 490.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | -1,329.39 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2026q3_equity_timing | 2026Q3 / upside | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2026q3_completed_financing | 2026Q3 / upside | 1,300.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2026q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2026q3_cash_after_financing | 2026Q3 / upside | -29.39 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2026q4_deliveries | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,644,100.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2026q4_asp | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,877.31 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_deliveries, upside_2026q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2026q4_auto_credits | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2026q4_auto_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,927.31 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2026q4_vw_recognition | 2026Q4 / upside | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2026q4_other_services | 2026Q4 / upside | 230.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2026q4_software_credits | 2026Q4 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2026q4_software_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 552.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_vw_recognition, upside_2026q4_other_services, upside_2026q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,479.31 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_auto_revenue, upside_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2026q4_auto_core_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | -2.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2026q4_auto_core_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | -37.55 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2026q4_auto_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | 12.45 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_auto_core_gp, upside_2026q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2026q4_software_margin | 2026Q4 / upside | 43.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2026q4_software_gp | 2026Q4 / upside | 237.36 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_software_revenue, upside_2026q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 249.81 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_auto_gp, upside_2026q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2026q4_gaap_opex | 2026Q4 / upside | 1,160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | -910.19 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 260.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 248.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / upside | -402.19 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / upside | 190.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2026q4_deferred_use | 2026Q4 / upside | 160.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 380.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use, upside_2026q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | -782.19 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 500.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | -1,282.19 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2026q4_equity_timing | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2026q4_completed_financing | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2026q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2026q4_cash_after_financing | 2026Q4 / upside | -1,282.19 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2027q1_deliveries | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,900,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2027q1_asp | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,972.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_deliveries, upside_2027q1_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q1_auto_credits | 2027Q1 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2027q1_auto_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,007.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2027q1_vw_recognition | 2027Q1 / upside | 330.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2027q1_other_services | 2027Q1 / upside | 250.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q1_software_credits | 2027Q1 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2027q1_software_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 582.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_vw_recognition, upside_2027q1_other_services, upside_2027q1_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,589.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_auto_revenue, upside_2027q1_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2027q1_auto_core_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 1.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2027q1_auto_core_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 29.58 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q1_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2027q1_auto_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 64.58 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_auto_core_gp, upside_2027q1_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2027q1_software_margin | 2027Q1 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2027q1_software_gp | 2027Q1 / upside | 256.08 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_software_revenue, upside_2027q1_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 320.66 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_auto_gp, upside_2027q1_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2027q1_gaap_opex | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | -859.34 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 270.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 256.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / upside | -333.34 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 100.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2027q1_deferred_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 285.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use, upside_2027q1_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | -618.34 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 610.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | -1,228.34 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2027q1_equity_timing | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2027q1_completed_financing | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2027q1_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2027q1_cash_after_financing | 2027Q1 / upside | -1,228.34 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2027q2_deliveries | 2027Q2 / upside | 3,500,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2027q2_asp | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 2,345.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_deliveries, upside_2027q2_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q2_auto_credits | 2027Q2 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2027q2_auto_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 2,380.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2027q2_vw_recognition | 2027Q2 / upside | 335.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2027q2_other_services | 2027Q2 / upside | 285.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q2_software_credits | 2027Q2 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2027q2_software_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 622.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_vw_recognition, upside_2027q2_other_services, upside_2027q2_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 3,002.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_auto_revenue, upside_2027q2_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2027q2_auto_core_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 4.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2027q2_auto_core_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 105.52 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q2_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2027q2_auto_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 140.52 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_auto_core_gp, upside_2027q2_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2027q2_software_margin | 2027Q2 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2027q2_software_gp | 2027Q2 / upside | 273.68 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_software_revenue, upside_2027q2_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 414.20 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_auto_gp, upside_2027q2_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2027q2_gaap_opex | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,230.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | -815.80 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 264.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / upside | -271.80 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 140.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2027q2_deferred_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 330.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use, upside_2027q2_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | -601.80 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 730.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | -1,331.80 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2027q2_equity_timing | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2027q2_completed_financing | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2027q2_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2027q2_cash_after_financing | 2027Q2 / upside | -1,331.80 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2027q3_deliveries | 2027Q3 / upside | 4,200,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2027q3_asp | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 2,772.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_deliveries, upside_2027q3_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q3_auto_credits | 2027Q3 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2027q3_auto_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 2,807.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2027q3_vw_recognition | 2027Q3 / upside | 335.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2027q3_other_services | 2027Q3 / upside | 330.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q3_software_credits | 2027Q3 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2027q3_software_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 667.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_vw_recognition, upside_2027q3_other_services, upside_2027q3_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 3,474.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_auto_revenue, upside_2027q3_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2027q3_auto_core_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2027q3_auto_core_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 207.90 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q3_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2027q3_auto_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 242.90 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_auto_core_gp, upside_2027q3_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2027q3_software_margin | 2027Q3 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2027q3_software_gp | 2027Q3 / upside | 293.48 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_software_revenue, upside_2027q3_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 536.38 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_auto_gp, upside_2027q3_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2027q3_gaap_opex | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | -763.62 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 290.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 272.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / upside | -201.62 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 180.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2027q3_deferred_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 145.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 370.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use, upside_2027q3_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | -571.62 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 850.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | -1,421.62 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2027q3_equity_timing | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2027q3_completed_financing | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2027q3_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2027q3_cash_after_financing | 2027Q3 / upside | -1,421.62 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_completed_financing). |
| Delivered vehicles upside_2027q4_deliveries | 2027Q4 / upside | 4,900,000.0% ratio | assumption: Vehicle count, dimensionless normalization. Base H2 adds to 67,500 FY2026 deliveries, midpoint of company 65,000-70,000 range. |
| Blended new-EV revenue per delivery upside_2027q4_asp | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.07 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per vehicle; $0.072M means $72,000. R1/R2/EDV mix proxy, not a model-specific sticker price. |
| New EV revenue upside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 3,185.00 USD_millions | derived: No revenue merely from production or nameplate capacity. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_deliveries, upside_2027q4_asp). |
| Automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q4_auto_credits | 2027Q4 / upside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive segment revenue upside_2027q4_auto_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 3,220.00 USD_millions | derived: Automotive credits only, keeping the revenue-note/segment classification consistent. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Volkswagen combined performance obligation revenue upside_2027q4_vw_recognition | 2027Q4 / upside | 335.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition includes development services and prior upfront consideration; not equity funding or entirely new cash receipts. |
| Other software remarketing and service revenue upside_2027q4_other_services | 2027Q4 / upside | 380.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-automotive regulatory credits upside_2027q4_software_credits | 2027Q4 / upside | 2.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services segment revenue upside_2027q4_software_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 717.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes small regulatory credit allocation, consistent with reported segment scope. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_vw_recognition, upside_2027q4_other_services, upside_2027q4_software_credits). |
| Consolidated revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 3,937.00 USD_millions | derived: No duplicate addition of total consolidated regulatory credits. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_auto_revenue, upside_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Automotive margin before credits upside_2027q4_auto_core_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 10.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Automotive GP before credits upside_2027q4_auto_core_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 318.50 USD_millions | derived: Includes R2 ramp, fixed-cost absorption, materials, warranties and depreciation; no repeated tariff refund gain. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q4_auto_core_margin). |
| Automotive gross profit upside_2027q4_auto_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 353.50 USD_millions | derived: Credits assumed negligible incremental cost. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_auto_core_gp, upside_2027q4_auto_credits). |
| Software/services segment gross margin upside_2027q4_software_margin | 2027Q4 / upside | 44.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Software/services gross profit upside_2027q4_software_gp | 2027Q4 / upside | 315.48 USD_millions | derived: Blended development/remarketing/service margin, not pure software subscription margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_software_revenue, upside_2027q4_software_margin). |
| Consolidated gross profit upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 668.98 USD_millions | derived: GAAP-style segment cost scope including manufacturing D&A and SBC. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_auto_gp, upside_2027q4_software_gp). |
| GAAP research selling and administrative expense upside_2027q4_gaap_opex | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,380.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes operating D&A/SBC. Initial base Q4 expense calibrated to annual EBITDA midpoint; edits to revenue/cost drivers then flow through earnings. |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | -711.02 USD_millions | derived: No Mind Robotics gain included in operating performance. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gaap_opex). |
| Total consolidated D&A upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Total consolidated SBC upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / upside | -131.02 USD_millions | derived: Forecast zero common-attributable/noncash scope difference; historical reported adjustment is shown separately. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest and taxes upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Debt cash coupons less investment yield plus taxes; does not capitalize all debt interest or treat gains as cash. |
| Inventory receivables and other working-capital use upside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / upside | 210.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Previously funded deferred-revenue cash adjustment upside_2027q4_deferred_use | 2027Q4 / upside | 145.00 USD_millions | assumption: Recognition of consideration collected in earlier periods reduces current-period cash relative to earnings. Net of assumed new operating advance receipts. |
| Net cash adjustments upside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 405.00 USD_millions | derived: No repeat of Mind Robotics noncash gain or stock-settled bonus financing benefit. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_net_cash_interest_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use, upside_2027q4_deferred_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | -536.02 USD_millions | derived: Debt/equity proceeds remain below operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 930.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| CFO less capital expenditure upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | -1,466.02 USD_millions | derived: Capex includes factory and Georgia preparation spending assumed here; restricted-equity reserves are additional possible uses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Completed financing quarter upside_2027q4_equity_timing | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Completed July equity proceeds upside_2027q4_completed_financing | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: No automatic VW loan, Uber milestone or DOE draw. Formula: multiply(july_equity, upside_2027q4_equity_timing). |
| Cash flow after completed financing upside_2027q4_cash_after_financing | 2027Q4 / upside | -1,466.02 USD_millions | derived: Period flow, not unrestricted liquidity; excludes reserve transfers and new conditional funding. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 7,671.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_vehicle_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 5,355.31 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2026q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_software_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 2,062.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_software_revenue, upside_2026q3_software_revenue, upside_2026q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 698.42 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_gross_profit, upside_2026q3_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | -3,596.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / upside | -1,732.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | -2,811.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 1,724.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | -4,535.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) upside_fy2026_completed_financing | FY2026 / upside | 2,600.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_completed_financing, upside_2026q3_completed_financing, upside_2026q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_financing | FY2026 / upside | -1,935.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_financing, upside_2026q3_cash_after_financing, upside_2026q4_cash_after_financing). |
| Consolidated revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 13,002.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| New EV revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_vehicle_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 10,274.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q2_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q3_vehicle_revenue, upside_2027q4_vehicle_revenue). |
| Software/services segment revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_software_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 2,588.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_software_revenue, upside_2027q2_software_revenue, upside_2027q3_software_revenue, upside_2027q4_software_revenue). |
| Consolidated gross profit ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 1,940.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | -3,149.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / upside | -937.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | -2,327.78 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 3,120.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | -5,447.77 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Completed equity financing cash ($M) upside_fy2027_completed_financing | FY2027 / upside | 0.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_completed_financing, upside_2027q2_completed_financing, upside_2027q3_completed_financing, upside_2027q4_completed_financing). |
| Cash flow after completed equity funding ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_financing | FY2027 / upside | -5,447.77 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_financing, upside_2027q2_cash_after_financing, upside_2027q3_cash_after_financing, upside_2027q4_cash_after_financing). |
Model boundaries
- FY2026 deliveries, adjusted EBITDA and capex ranges are company guidance; revenue, ASP, margins, quarterly splits and FY2027 are desk scenarios. Base FY2026 delivery/EBITDA/capex totals reconcile to range midpoints.
- Q2 new-EV revenue $1,037M plus total credits $108M plus software/services $513M equals consolidated sales. Segment automotive includes $106M credits and software includes the remaining $2M. H1 segment allocation similarly places $164M/$3M credits. Do not mix these classifications and duplicate revenue.
- Software/services includes Volkswagen development/license performance obligations and vehicle remarketing/repair. It is not entirely recurring high-margin subscription revenue. Recognition of past upfront consideration does not create new period cash.
- Q2 vehicle gross margin benefited from an IEEPA tariff-refund receivable and included approximately $100M incremental R2 ramp costs. Forecast margins are net desk sensitivities, not a verified unit bill of materials or repeat of tariff refunds.
- Completed H1 VW/Uber equity and July public equity are financing proceeds. Remaining Uber milestones, October VW loan and DOE advances are conditional, not assumed received. DOE $4.5B includes $494M capitalized interest, with equity/reserve and operating conditions before drawing.
- Cash after completed financing is a period flow before new restricted reserves, Mind Robotics deconsolidation cash, optional investments and other financing items; it is not available liquidity or a cash runway promise. No EPS, valuation or fully diluted ownership bridge.
- Company adjusted EBITDA uses common-attributable earnings and scoped noncash adjustments; H1 differs by $2M from consolidated operating income plus total D&A/SBC. Forecast assumes zero such scope adjustment, with no recurring Mind Robotics gain.
R2 scaling after first deliveries: economics before financing
How quickly can the R2 ramp reduce cash burn without relying on undrawn commitments or deferred-revenue recognition?
H1 deliveries were 22,559 and consolidated revenue $3.039B. Automotive gross loss $98M included $164M automotive credits; software/services gross profit was $396M. The revenue note assigns $3M additional credits outside automotive, explaining the small classification difference. Volkswagen performance-obligation revenue was $590M, while total deferred revenue used $362M of operating cash relative to recognition. CFO was negative $1.190B and capex $734M, giving negative $1.924B FCF. H1 VW/Uber equity supplied $1.3B; the completed July offering added approximately $1.3B net for 86.25M shares, after June cash/securities of $5.310B. Company guidance is 65,000-70,000 deliveries, negative $2.0B-$1.8B adjusted EBITDA and $1.70B-$1.80B capex. The October $1B VW loan remains subject to funding conditions; principal begins amortizing from its third anniversary. Remaining Uber $950M is milestone dependent. DOE funding is up to $4.5B including $494M capitalized interest, with equity/reserve pre-funding and operating conditions; first draw is expected by early 2027. The $506M Mind Robotics gain is noncash.
The competing explanation
Higher deliveries may require lower pricing, inventory investment and continued production inefficiency. Software revenue can lift earnings without equal new cash, while financing conditions and reserve requirements constrain capital even after an equity raise.
Risks to track
- R2 production, quality, service and demand must scale together.
- Regulatory credit revenue and tariff refunds are uncertain support for vehicle margins.
- Volkswagen revenue recognition differs from receipts and equity funding.
- Georgia funding requires reserves and operating conditions before DOE advances.
- Equity milestones and future raises dilute common holders.
- CFO Claire McDonough plans to step down October 30; transition execution matters.
Next checkpoints
- R2 ramp and third-quarter deliveries · Quarter end and next earnings; dates unconfirmed (estimated). Compare actual deliveries and automotive margins excluding credits with the scenario.
- Volkswagen loan availability · October 1-30, 2026 draw window (estimated). Verify whether the $1B loan actually funds and on what final conditions.
- Georgia funding readiness · First DOE draw expected by early 2027 (estimated). Check equity/reserve contributions, required operating tests and eligible project spending.
- Finance leadership handoff · October 30 planned transition (estimated). Confirm interim responsibility and updated capital disclosures.
Data coverage and open work
- FY2026 deliveries, adjusted EBITDA and capex ranges are company guidance; revenue, ASP, margins, quarterly splits and FY2027 are desk scenarios. Base FY2026 delivery/EBITDA/capex totals reconcile to range midpoints.
- Q2 new-EV revenue $1,037M plus total credits $108M plus software/services $513M equals consolidated sales. Segment automotive includes $106M credits and software includes the remaining $2M. H1 segment allocation similarly places $164M/$3M credits. Do not mix these classifications and duplicate revenue.
- Software/services includes Volkswagen development/license performance obligations and vehicle remarketing/repair. It is not entirely recurring high-margin subscription revenue. Recognition of past upfront consideration does not create new period cash.
- Q2 vehicle gross margin benefited from an IEEPA tariff-refund receivable and included approximately $100M incremental R2 ramp costs. Forecast margins are net desk sensitivities, not a verified unit bill of materials or repeat of tariff refunds.
- Completed H1 VW/Uber equity and July public equity are financing proceeds. Remaining Uber milestones, October VW loan and DOE advances are conditional, not assumed received. DOE $4.5B includes $494M capitalized interest, with equity/reserve and operating conditions before drawing.
- Cash after completed financing is a period flow before new restricted reserves, Mind Robotics deconsolidation cash, optional investments and other financing items; it is not available liquidity or a cash runway promise. No EPS, valuation or fully diluted ownership bridge.
- Company adjusted EBITDA uses common-attributable earnings and scoped noncash adjustments; H1 differs by $2M from consolidated operating income plus total D&A/SBC. Forecast assumes zero such scope adjustment, with no recurring Mind Robotics gain.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -2.5 | -0.0 | +2.4 | 50% |
| 5 sessions | -6.4 | -0.5 | +6.2 | 45% |
| 10 sessions | -9.4 | -0.7 | +9.6 | 46% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.