$RIG
Business
Transocean owns and operates offshore drilling rigs, primarily ultra-deepwater and harsh-environment floaters. Contract revenue depends on operating days, earned dayrates, technical uptime and mobilization/accounting terms. Maintenance, stacking, interest and debt principal can absorb cash even with substantial backlog. The model covers standalone Transocean while its proposed Valaris acquisition remains pending in the reviewed materials.
Three drivers
- Operating days, effective earned rates and revenue efficiency
- Rig operating costs, mobilization and contract timing
- Interest, capex and debt principal before common cash
Thesis
Our view
Contract visibility can support cash generation, but the test is delivery after maintenance and debt service. A headline backlog including conditional work is not the same as booked firm revenue, and proposed merger economics need a separate ownership and financing bridge.
What changes it
Firm approvals, better utilization and consistent cash after principal would strengthen the case. Contract delays, reactivation costs or merger obligations exceeding the standalone cash capacity would weaken it.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q3 2024-09-30 | 2024Q4 2024-12-31 | 2025Q1 2025-03-31 | 2025Q2 2025-06-30 | 2025Q3 2025-09-30 | 2025Q4 2025-12-31 | 2026Q1 2026-03-31 | 2026Q2 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 948.01 | 952.0†2 | 906.03 | 988.04 | 1,028.01 | 1,043.0†2 | 1,081.03 | 966.04 |
| Gross profit ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Operating income ($M) | -485.05 | 130.0†6 | 64.07 | -964.08 | -1,677.05 | 240.0†6 | 287.07 | 152.08 |
| Net income ($M) | -494.09 | 7.0†10 | -79.011 | -938.012 | -1,923.09 | 25.0†10 | 71.011 | 170.012 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | -0.5813 | — | -0.1114 | -1.0615 | -2.0013 | — | 0.0614 | 0.0415 |
| Diluted shares (M) | 954.016 | — | 958.017 | 888.018 | 961.016 | — | 1,124.017 | 1,202.018 |
| Cash ($M) | 435.019 | 560.020 | 263.021 | 377.022 | 833.023 | 620.024 | 330.025 | 509.024 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | 194.0†26 | 206.0†27 | 26.028 | 128.0†29 | 246.0†26 | 349.0†27 | 164.028 | 236.0†29 |
| Capex ($M) | 58.0†30 | 29.0†31 | 60.032 | 24.0†33 | 11.0†30 | 28.0†31 | 28.032 | 24.0†33 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 136.0†34 | 177.0†35 | -34.0†36 | 104.0†37 | 235.0†34 | 321.0†35 | 136.0†36 | 212.0†37 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 940.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Standalone contract revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2026Q4 | 950.5 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Standalone contract revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 1,009.2 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Standalone contract revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 1,038.6 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario. Revenue basis: Standalone contract revenue ($M). Calculated from the operating-model inputs below; not consensus or company guidance. |
Standalone drilling execution and cash after debt service
Anchor remaining 2026 revenue and operating costs to management guidance after H1 actuals. Express quarterly sales through operating days, effective earned dayrate and ancillary contract revenue, with revenue-efficiency sensitivity normalized to guidance. The effective rate already embeds baseline efficiency; the ratio only changes that baseline. FY2027 varies days and earned rates without automatically adding announced backlog. Bridge ordinary operating earnings to cash through cash interest, taxes, contract timing and working capital, then deduct capex and modeled scheduled principal.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2026 standalone revenue midpoint | FY2026 | 3,937.50 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| Q3 standalone revenue midpoint | 2026Q3 | 940.00 | derived. Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. |
| H1 cfo | H1 2026 | 400.00 | reported. Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 CFO less capex | H1 2026 | 348.00 | derived. Reported cash flow baseline. |
| H1 debt principal | H1 2026 | 586.00 | reported. Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 cash after principal | H1 2026 | -238.00 | derived. Includes H1 early debt retirement; no automatic forecast repetition. |
| cash | June/August 2026 | 509.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| restricted cash | June/August 2026 | 286.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| debt face | June/August 2026 | 5,107.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| current debt face | June/August 2026 | 405.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| current debt carrying | June/August 2026 | 397.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| backlog august | June/August 2026 | 6,700.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| equinor conditional | June/August 2026 | 1,000.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
| KG2 two-year award including services and mobilization | August 2026 | 300.00 | reported. Binding letter of award for Q1 2027 start; optional extensions excluded. Source · 2026-08-20 |
| Conqueror 170-day award excluding services and mobilization | September 2026 | 80.00 | reported. Two wells starting in 2027; distinct award economics from KG2. Source · 2026-09-15 |
| FY2026 capex guidance | FY2026 | 150.00 | management guidance. Company approximate cash capital expenditure outlook. Source · 2026-08-05 |
| q2 exchange gain | June/August 2026 | 134.00 | reported. USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Source · 2026-08-07 |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Standalone contract revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Debt principal repayments ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | -3.00 | -48.00 | 45.00 | 873.60 | 190.00 | 105.00 | 34.00 | -153.00 |
| 2026Q4 | 115.00 | 62.00 | 53.00 | 883.31 | 295.50 | 105.00 | 139.50 | -43.00 |
| 2027Q1 | 49.82 | -15.18 | 65.00 | 882.92 | 222.82 | 80.00 | 64.82 | -95.18 |
| 2027Q2 | 63.66 | -6.34 | 70.00 | 896.36 | 224.66 | 115.00 | 64.66 | -121.34 |
| FY2026 | 512.00 | 362.00 | 150.00 | 3,803.91 | 1,237.50 | 796.00 | 612.50 | -434.00 |
| FY2027 | 267.64 | 7.64 | 260.00 | 3,622.64 | 912.64 | 361.00 | 268.64 | -353.36 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Standalone contract revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Debt principal repayments ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 130.00 | 85.00 | 45.00 | 940.00 | 293.00 | 105.00 | 137.00 | -20.00 |
| 2026Q4 | 239.50 | 186.50 | 53.00 | 950.50 | 395.00 | 105.00 | 239.00 | 81.50 |
| 2027Q1 | 236.25 | 191.25 | 45.00 | 1,009.25 | 384.25 | 80.00 | 226.25 | 111.25 |
| 2027Q2 | 261.60 | 211.60 | 50.00 | 1,038.60 | 402.60 | 115.00 | 242.60 | 96.60 |
| FY2026 | 769.50 | 619.50 | 150.00 | 3,937.50 | 1,440.00 | 796.00 | 815.00 | -176.50 |
| FY2027 | 1,078.95 | 888.95 | 190.00 | 4,204.95 | 1,638.95 | 361.00 | 994.95 | 527.95 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow proxy ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capital expenditure ($M) | Standalone contract revenue ($M) | Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) | Debt principal repayments ($M) | GAAP operating income proxy ($M) | Cash after principal ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 182.53 | 137.53 | 45.00 | 976.43 | 335.53 | 105.00 | 179.53 | 32.53 |
| 2026Q4 | 291.74 | 238.74 | 53.00 | 987.36 | 437.24 | 105.00 | 281.24 | 133.74 |
| 2027Q1 | 342.80 | 292.80 | 50.00 | 1,099.95 | 480.80 | 80.00 | 322.80 | 212.80 |
| 2027Q2 | 390.89 | 335.89 | 55.00 | 1,151.94 | 521.89 | 115.00 | 361.89 | 220.89 |
| FY2026 | 874.27 | 724.27 | 150.00 | 4,010.79 | 1,524.77 | 796.00 | 899.77 | -71.73 |
| FY2027 | 1,617.98 | 1,407.98 | 210.00 | 4,679.98 | 2,137.98 | 361.00 | 1,493.98 | 1,046.98 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| H1 revenue h1_revenue | H1 2026 / shared | 2,047.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 operating income h1_operating_income | H1 2026 / shared | 439.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 adj ebitda h1_adj_ebitda | H1 2026 / shared | 752.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 cfo h1_cfo | H1 2026 / shared | 400.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 capex h1_capex | H1 2026 / shared | 52.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 debt principal h1_debt_principal | H1 2026 / shared | 586.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 da h1_da | H1 2026 / shared | 291.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 sbc h1_sbc | H1 2026 / shared | 15.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 net income h1_net_income | H1 2026 / shared | 241.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 contract liability use h1_contract_liability_use | H1 2026 / shared | 83.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 deferred cost source h1_deferred_cost_source | H1 2026 / shared | 46.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported USD millions; adjusted EBITDA is Q1 $440M plus Q2 $312M from the August 5 earnings release. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 CFO less capex h1_fcf | H1 2026 / shared | 348.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported cash flow baseline. Formula: subtract(h1_cfo, h1_capex). |
| H1 cash after principal h1_cash_after_principal | H1 2026 / shared | -238.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes H1 early debt retirement; no automatic forecast repetition. Formula: subtract(h1_fcf, h1_debt_principal). |
| cash cash | June/August 2026 / shared | 509.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| restricted cash restricted_cash | June/August 2026 / shared | 286.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| debt face debt_face | June/August 2026 / shared | 5,107.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| debt carrying debt_carrying | June/August 2026 / shared | 5,119.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| current debt face current_debt_face | June/August 2026 / shared | 405.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| current debt carrying current_debt_carrying | June/August 2026 / shared | 397.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| backlog august backlog_august | June/August 2026 / shared | 6,700.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| equinor conditional equinor_conditional | June/August 2026 / shared | 1,000.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| q2 exchange gain q2_exchange_gain | June/August 2026 / shared | 134.00 USD_millions | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| q2 operating days q2_operating_days | June/August 2026 / shared | 192,200.0% ratio | reported: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| q2 ancillary q2_ancillary | June/August 2026 / shared | 57.85 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions except operating days. Ancillary is desk arithmetic: Q2 revenue 966 less 1,922 days times $0.4725M earned daily revenue; not a separately reported line. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| KG2 two-year award including services and mobilization kg2_award | August 2026 / shared | 300.00 USD_millions | reported: Binding letter of award for Q1 2027 start; optional extensions excluded. Primary source · 2026-08-20 |
| Conqueror 170-day award excluding services and mobilization conqueror_award | September 2026 / shared | 80.00 USD_millions | reported: Two wells starting in 2027; distinct award economics from KG2. Primary source · 2026-09-15 |
| FY2026 standalone revenue low fy26_guide_low | FY2026 / shared | 3,900.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 standalone revenue high fy26_guide_high | FY2026 / shared | 3,975.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Midpoint divisor two | Model / shared | 200.0% ratio | assumption: Arithmetic constant. |
| FY2026 standalone revenue endpoint sum fy26_guide_sum | FY2026 / shared | 7,875.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(fy26_guide_low, fy26_guide_high). |
| FY2026 standalone revenue midpoint fy26_guide | FY2026 / shared | 3,937.50 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(fy26_guide_sum, two). |
| Q3 standalone revenue low q3_guide_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 920.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Q3 standalone revenue high q3_guide_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 960.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Q3 standalone revenue endpoint sum q3_guide_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,880.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(q3_guide_low, q3_guide_high). |
| Q3 standalone revenue midpoint q3_guide | 2026Q3 / shared | 940.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(q3_guide_sum, two). |
| FY2026 operating and maintenance expense low om_annual_low | FY2026 / shared | 2,325.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 operating and maintenance expense high om_annual_high | FY2026 / shared | 2,400.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 operating and maintenance expense endpoint sum om_annual_sum | FY2026 / shared | 4,725.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(om_annual_low, om_annual_high). |
| FY2026 operating and maintenance expense midpoint om_annual | FY2026 / shared | 2,362.50 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(om_annual_sum, two). |
| Q3 operating and maintenance expense low om_q3_low | 2026Q3 / shared | 595.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Q3 operating and maintenance expense high om_q3_high | 2026Q3 / shared | 625.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| Q3 operating and maintenance expense endpoint sum om_q3_sum | 2026Q3 / shared | 1,220.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(om_q3_low, om_q3_high). |
| Q3 operating and maintenance expense midpoint om_q3 | 2026Q3 / shared | 610.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(om_q3_sum, two). |
| FY2026 general and administrative expense low ga_annual_low | FY2026 / shared | 170.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 general and administrative expense high ga_annual_high | FY2026 / shared | 180.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company guidance; not a desk forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| FY2026 general and administrative expense endpoint sum ga_annual_sum | FY2026 / shared | 350.00 USD_millions | derived: Arithmetic intermediate. Formula: sum(ga_annual_low, ga_annual_high). |
| FY2026 general and administrative expense midpoint ga_annual | FY2026 / shared | 175.00 USD_millions | derived: Calculated midpoint of the company range; not an additional company forecast. Formula: divide(ga_annual_sum, two). |
| FY2026 capex guidance cap_guide | FY2026 / shared | 150.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company approximate cash capital expenditure outlook. Primary source · 2026-08-05 |
| H1 operating and maintenance h1_om | H1 2026 / shared | 1,214.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H1 general and administrative h1_ga | H1 2026 / shared | 105.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-07 |
| H2 guided revenue remaining_guide | H2 2026 / shared | 1,890.50 USD_millions | derived: Full-year midpoint less reported H1. Formula: subtract(fy26_guide, h1_revenue). |
| Q4 revenue implied by annual and Q3 midpoints q4_guide_residual | 2026Q4 / shared | 950.50 USD_millions | derived: Desk residual, not separate Q4 company guidance. Formula: subtract(remaining_guide, q3_guide). |
| H2 operating and maintenance residual h2_om | H2 2026 / shared | 1,148.50 USD_millions | derived: Annual midpoint less reported first half. Formula: subtract(om_annual, h1_om). |
| Q4 operating and maintenance residual q4_om | 2026Q4 / shared | 538.50 USD_millions | derived: Allocation residual; not separate company guidance. Formula: subtract(h2_om, om_q3). |
| H2 general and administrative residual h2_ga | H2 2026 / shared | 70.00 USD_millions | derived: Annual midpoint less reported first half. Formula: subtract(ga_annual, h1_ga). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2026q3_ancillary | 2026Q3 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2026q3_daily_rate | 2026Q3 / downside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary downside_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q3 / downside | 890.00 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q3_guide, downside_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days downside_2026q3_implied_days | 2026Q3 / downside | 187,368.4% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor, downside_2026q3_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor downside_2026q3_execution | 2026Q3 / downside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days downside_2026q3_operating_days | 2026Q3 / downside | 178,000.0% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_implied_days, downside_2026q3_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2026q3_efficiency | 2026Q3 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2026q3_eff_baseline | 2026Q3 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2026q3_eff_ratio | 2026Q3 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2026q3_efficiency, downside_2026q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2026q3_dayrate_sales | 2026Q3 / downside | 823.60 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q3_operating_days, downside_2026q3_daily_rate, downside_2026q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / downside | 873.60 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_dayrate_sales, downside_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2026q3_cost_factor | 2026Q3 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2026q3_om_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 646.60 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(om_q3, downside_2026q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative downside_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / downside | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2026q3_operating_cost | 2026Q3 / downside | 839.60 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_om_cost, downside_2026q3_ga, downside_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / downside | 34.00 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / downside | 190.00 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q3_da, downside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2026q3_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / downside | 100.50 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / downside | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / downside | 65.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / downside | 193.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2026q3_cash_interest, downside_2026q3_cash_tax, downside_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / downside | -3.00 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / downside | -48.00 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / downside | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2026q3_cash_after_principal | 2026Q3 / downside | -153.00 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2026q4_ancillary | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2026q4_daily_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary downside_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q4 / downside | 900.50 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q4_guide_residual, downside_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days downside_2026q4_implied_days | 2026Q4 / downside | 189,578.9% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor, downside_2026q4_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor downside_2026q4_execution | 2026Q4 / downside | 95.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days downside_2026q4_operating_days | 2026Q4 / downside | 180,100.0% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_implied_days, downside_2026q4_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2026q4_efficiency | 2026Q4 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2026q4_eff_baseline | 2026Q4 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2026q4_eff_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2026q4_efficiency, downside_2026q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2026q4_dayrate_sales | 2026Q4 / downside | 833.31 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_operating_days, downside_2026q4_daily_rate, downside_2026q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 883.31 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_dayrate_sales, downside_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2026q4_cost_factor | 2026Q4 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2026q4_om_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 570.81 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(q4_om, downside_2026q4_cost_factor). |
| Q3 G&A budget downside_2026q4_q3_ga | 2026Q4 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| General and administrative downside_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | derived: Q4 annual-midpoint residual. Formula: subtract(h2_ga, downside_2026q4_q3_ga). |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / downside | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2026q4_operating_cost | 2026Q4 / downside | 743.81 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_om_cost, downside_2026q4_ga, downside_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 139.50 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / downside | 295.50 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_da, downside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2026q4_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / downside | 103.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / downside | 180.50 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cash_interest, downside_2026q4_cash_tax, downside_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 115.00 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | 62.00 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / downside | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2026q4_cash_after_principal | 2026Q4 / downside | -43.00 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_fcf, downside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2027q1_ancillary | 2027Q1 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2027q1_daily_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.46 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days downside_2027q1_operating_days | 2027Q1 / downside | 187,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2027q1_efficiency | 2027Q1 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2027q1_eff_baseline | 2027Q1 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2027q1_eff_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2027q1_efficiency, downside_2027q1_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2027q1_dayrate_sales | 2027Q1 / downside | 837.92 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_operating_days, downside_2027q1_daily_rate, downside_2027q1_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 882.92 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_dayrate_sales, downside_2027q1_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget downside_2027q1_om_anchor | 2027Q1 / downside | 585.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2027q1_cost_factor | 2027Q1 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2027q1_om_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 620.10 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_om_anchor, downside_2027q1_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative downside_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / downside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / downside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2027q1_operating_cost | 2027Q1 / downside | 818.10 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_om_cost, downside_2027q1_ga, downside_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 64.82 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / downside | 222.82 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_da, downside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2027q1_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / downside | 98.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / downside | 173.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_interest, downside_2027q1_cash_tax, downside_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 49.82 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 65.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -15.18 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / downside | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2027q1_cash_after_principal | 2027Q1 / downside | -95.18 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2027q2_ancillary | 2027Q2 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2027q2_daily_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.46 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days downside_2027q2_operating_days | 2027Q2 / downside | 190,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2027q2_efficiency | 2027Q2 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2027q2_eff_baseline | 2027Q2 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2027q2_eff_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2027q2_efficiency, downside_2027q2_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2027q2_dayrate_sales | 2027Q2 / downside | 851.36 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_operating_days, downside_2027q2_daily_rate, downside_2027q2_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 896.36 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_dayrate_sales, downside_2027q2_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget downside_2027q2_om_anchor | 2027Q2 / downside | 595.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2027q2_cost_factor | 2027Q2 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2027q2_om_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 630.70 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_om_anchor, downside_2027q2_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative downside_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / downside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / downside | 152.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2027q2_operating_cost | 2027Q2 / downside | 831.70 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_om_cost, downside_2027q2_ga, downside_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 64.66 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / downside | 224.66 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_da, downside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2027q2_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / downside | 96.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / downside | 161.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cash_interest, downside_2027q2_cash_tax, downside_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 63.66 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 70.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -6.34 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / downside | 115.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2027q2_cash_after_principal | 2027Q2 / downside | -121.34 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2027q3_ancillary | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2027q3_daily_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days downside_2027q3_operating_days | 2027Q3 / downside | 190,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2027q3_efficiency | 2027Q3 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2027q3_eff_baseline | 2027Q3 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2027q3_eff_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2027q3_efficiency, downside_2027q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2027q3_dayrate_sales | 2027Q3 / downside | 860.61 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_operating_days, downside_2027q3_daily_rate, downside_2027q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 905.61 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_dayrate_sales, downside_2027q3_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget downside_2027q3_om_anchor | 2027Q3 / downside | 605.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2027q3_cost_factor | 2027Q3 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2027q3_om_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 641.30 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_om_anchor, downside_2027q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative downside_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / downside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / downside | 154.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2027q3_operating_cost | 2027Q3 / downside | 845.30 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_om_cost, downside_2027q3_ga, downside_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 60.31 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / downside | 222.31 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_da, downside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2027q3_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / downside | 94.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / downside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / downside | 159.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cash_interest, downside_2027q3_cash_tax, downside_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 63.31 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 65.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | -1.69 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / downside | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2027q3_cash_after_principal | 2027Q3 / downside | -84.69 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue downside_2027q4_ancillary | 2027Q4 / downside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day downside_2027q4_daily_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days downside_2027q4_operating_days | 2027Q4 / downside | 195,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency downside_2027q4_efficiency | 2027Q4 / downside | 94.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency downside_2027q4_eff_baseline | 2027Q4 / downside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance downside_2027q4_eff_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 97.4% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(downside_2027q4_efficiency, downside_2027q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue downside_2027q4_dayrate_sales | 2027Q4 / downside | 892.76 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_operating_days, downside_2027q4_daily_rate, downside_2027q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 937.76 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_dayrate_sales, downside_2027q4_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget downside_2027q4_om_anchor | 2027Q4 / downside | 615.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor downside_2027q4_cost_factor | 2027Q4 / downside | 106.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance downside_2027q4_om_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 651.90 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_om_anchor, downside_2027q4_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative downside_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / downside | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization downside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / downside | 156.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation downside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / downside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs downside_2027q4_operating_cost | 2027Q4 / downside | 858.90 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_om_cost, downside_2027q4_ga, downside_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 78.86 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / downside | 242.86 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_da, downside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest downside_2027q4_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / downside | 92.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use downside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / downside | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses downside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / downside | 152.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cash_interest, downside_2027q4_cash_tax, downside_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 90.86 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 60.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.86 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation downside_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / downside | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal downside_2027q4_cash_after_principal | 2027Q4 / downside | -52.14 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_fcf, downside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 3,803.91 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, downside_2026q3_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 612.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, downside_2026q3_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / downside | 1,237.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 512.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, downside_2026q3_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, downside_2026q3_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | 362.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, downside_2026q3_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) downside_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / downside | 796.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, downside_2026q3_debt_principal, downside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) downside_fy2026_cash_after_principal | FY2026 / downside | -434.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_principal, downside_2026q3_cash_after_principal, downside_2026q4_cash_after_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 3,622.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 268.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / downside | 912.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, downside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 267.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 260.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | 7.64 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) downside_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / downside | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_debt_principal, downside_2027q2_debt_principal, downside_2027q3_debt_principal, downside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) downside_fy2027_cash_after_principal | FY2027 / downside | -353.36 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cash_after_principal, downside_2027q2_cash_after_principal, downside_2027q3_cash_after_principal, downside_2027q4_cash_after_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2026q3_ancillary | 2026Q3 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2026q3_daily_rate | 2026Q3 / base | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary base_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q3 / base | 890.00 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q3_guide, base_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days base_2026q3_implied_days | 2026Q3 / base | 187,368.4% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor, base_2026q3_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor base_2026q3_execution | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days base_2026q3_operating_days | 2026Q3 / base | 187,368.4% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_implied_days, base_2026q3_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency base_2026q3_efficiency | 2026Q3 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2026q3_eff_baseline | 2026Q3 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2026q3_eff_ratio | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2026q3_efficiency, base_2026q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2026q3_dayrate_sales | 2026Q3 / base | 890.00 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2026q3_operating_days, base_2026q3_daily_rate, base_2026q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / base | 940.00 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_dayrate_sales, base_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2026q3_cost_factor | 2026Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2026q3_om_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 610.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(om_q3, base_2026q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative base_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / base | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2026q3_operating_cost | 2026Q3 / base | 803.00 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_om_cost, base_2026q3_ga, base_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / base | 137.00 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / base | 293.00 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q3_da, base_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2026q3_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / base | 100.50 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / base | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / base | 35.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / base | 163.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2026q3_cash_interest, base_2026q3_cash_tax, base_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / base | 130.00 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / base | 85.00 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / base | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2026q3_cash_after_principal | 2026Q3 / base | -20.00 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2026q4_ancillary | 2026Q4 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2026q4_daily_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary base_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q4 / base | 900.50 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q4_guide_residual, base_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days base_2026q4_implied_days | 2026Q4 / base | 189,578.9% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor, base_2026q4_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor base_2026q4_execution | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days base_2026q4_operating_days | 2026Q4 / base | 189,578.9% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_implied_days, base_2026q4_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency base_2026q4_efficiency | 2026Q4 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2026q4_eff_baseline | 2026Q4 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2026q4_eff_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2026q4_efficiency, base_2026q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2026q4_dayrate_sales | 2026Q4 / base | 900.50 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_operating_days, base_2026q4_daily_rate, base_2026q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 950.50 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_dayrate_sales, base_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2026q4_cost_factor | 2026Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2026q4_om_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 538.50 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(q4_om, base_2026q4_cost_factor). |
| Q3 G&A budget base_2026q4_q3_ga | 2026Q4 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| General and administrative base_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | derived: Q4 annual-midpoint residual. Formula: subtract(h2_ga, base_2026q4_q3_ga). |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / base | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2026q4_operating_cost | 2026Q4 / base | 711.50 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_om_cost, base_2026q4_ga, base_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 239.00 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / base | 395.00 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_da, base_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2026q4_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / base | 103.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / base | 155.50 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cash_interest, base_2026q4_cash_tax, base_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 239.50 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 186.50 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / base | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2026q4_cash_after_principal | 2026Q4 / base | 81.50 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_fcf, base_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2027q1_ancillary | 2027Q1 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2027q1_daily_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days base_2027q1_operating_days | 2027Q1 / base | 203,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency base_2027q1_efficiency | 2027Q1 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2027q1_eff_baseline | 2027Q1 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2027q1_eff_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2027q1_efficiency, base_2027q1_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2027q1_dayrate_sales | 2027Q1 / base | 964.25 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_operating_days, base_2027q1_daily_rate, base_2027q1_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 1,009.25 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_dayrate_sales, base_2027q1_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget base_2027q1_om_anchor | 2027Q1 / base | 585.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2027q1_cost_factor | 2027Q1 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2027q1_om_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 585.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_om_anchor, base_2027q1_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative base_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / base | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / base | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2027q1_operating_cost | 2027Q1 / base | 783.00 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_om_cost, base_2027q1_ga, base_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 226.25 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / base | 384.25 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_da, base_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2027q1_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / base | 98.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / base | 148.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_interest, base_2027q1_cash_tax, base_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 236.25 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 191.25 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / base | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2027q1_cash_after_principal | 2027Q1 / base | 111.25 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2027q2_ancillary | 2027Q2 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2027q2_daily_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 0.48 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days base_2027q2_operating_days | 2027Q2 / base | 207,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency base_2027q2_efficiency | 2027Q2 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2027q2_eff_baseline | 2027Q2 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2027q2_eff_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2027q2_efficiency, base_2027q2_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2027q2_dayrate_sales | 2027Q2 / base | 993.60 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_operating_days, base_2027q2_daily_rate, base_2027q2_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 1,038.60 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_dayrate_sales, base_2027q2_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget base_2027q2_om_anchor | 2027Q2 / base | 595.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2027q2_cost_factor | 2027Q2 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2027q2_om_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 595.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_om_anchor, base_2027q2_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative base_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / base | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / base | 152.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2027q2_operating_cost | 2027Q2 / base | 796.00 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_om_cost, base_2027q2_ga, base_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 242.60 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / base | 402.60 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_da, base_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2027q2_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / base | 96.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / base | 141.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cash_interest, base_2027q2_cash_tax, base_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 261.60 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 211.60 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / base | 115.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2027q2_cash_after_principal | 2027Q2 / base | 96.60 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2027q3_ancillary | 2027Q3 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2027q3_daily_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 0.48 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days base_2027q3_operating_days | 2027Q3 / base | 210,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency base_2027q3_efficiency | 2027Q3 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2027q3_eff_baseline | 2027Q3 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2027q3_eff_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2027q3_efficiency, base_2027q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2027q3_dayrate_sales | 2027Q3 / base | 1,018.50 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_operating_days, base_2027q3_daily_rate, base_2027q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 1,063.50 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_dayrate_sales, base_2027q3_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget base_2027q3_om_anchor | 2027Q3 / base | 605.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2027q3_cost_factor | 2027Q3 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2027q3_om_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 605.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_om_anchor, base_2027q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative base_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / base | 154.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2027q3_operating_cost | 2027Q3 / base | 809.00 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_om_cost, base_2027q3_ga, base_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 254.50 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / base | 416.50 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_da, base_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2027q3_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / base | 94.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / base | 20.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / base | 139.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cash_interest, base_2027q3_cash_tax, base_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 277.50 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 227.50 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / base | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2027q3_cash_after_principal | 2027Q3 / base | 144.50 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue base_2027q4_ancillary | 2027Q4 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day base_2027q4_daily_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 0.49 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days base_2027q4_operating_days | 2027Q4 / base | 214,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency base_2027q4_efficiency | 2027Q4 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency base_2027q4_eff_baseline | 2027Q4 / base | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance base_2027q4_eff_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(base_2027q4_efficiency, base_2027q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue base_2027q4_dayrate_sales | 2027Q4 / base | 1,048.60 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_operating_days, base_2027q4_daily_rate, base_2027q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 1,093.60 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_dayrate_sales, base_2027q4_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget base_2027q4_om_anchor | 2027Q4 / base | 615.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor base_2027q4_cost_factor | 2027Q4 / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance base_2027q4_om_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 615.00 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_om_anchor, base_2027q4_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative base_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / base | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization base_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / base | 156.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation base_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / base | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs base_2027q4_operating_cost | 2027Q4 / base | 822.00 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_om_cost, base_2027q4_ga, base_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 271.60 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy base_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / base | 435.60 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_da, base_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest base_2027q4_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / base | 92.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use base_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / base | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses base_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / base | 132.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cash_interest, base_2027q4_cash_tax, base_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 303.60 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 258.60 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation base_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / base | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal base_2027q4_cash_after_principal | 2027Q4 / base | 175.60 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_fcf, base_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 3,937.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, base_2026q3_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 815.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, base_2026q3_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / base | 1,440.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, base_2026q3_adj_ebitda, base_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 769.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, base_2026q3_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, base_2026q3_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 619.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, base_2026q3_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) base_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / base | 796.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, base_2026q3_debt_principal, base_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) base_fy2026_cash_after_principal | FY2026 / base | -176.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_principal, base_2026q3_cash_after_principal, base_2026q4_cash_after_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 4,204.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 994.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) base_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / base | 1,638.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_adj_ebitda, base_2027q2_adj_ebitda, base_2027q3_adj_ebitda, base_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 1,078.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 190.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 888.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) base_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / base | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_debt_principal, base_2027q2_debt_principal, base_2027q3_debt_principal, base_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) base_fy2027_cash_after_principal | FY2027 / base | 527.95 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cash_after_principal, base_2027q2_cash_after_principal, base_2027q3_cash_after_principal, base_2027q4_cash_after_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2026q3_ancillary | 2026Q3 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2026q3_daily_rate | 2026Q3 / upside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary upside_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q3 / upside | 890.00 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q3_guide, upside_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days upside_2026q3_implied_days | 2026Q3 / upside | 187,368.4% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_daily_sales_anchor, upside_2026q3_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor upside_2026q3_execution | 2026Q3 / upside | 102.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days upside_2026q3_operating_days | 2026Q3 / upside | 192,052.6% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_implied_days, upside_2026q3_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2026q3_efficiency | 2026Q3 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2026q3_eff_baseline | 2026Q3 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2026q3_eff_ratio | 2026Q3 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2026q3_efficiency, upside_2026q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2026q3_dayrate_sales | 2026Q3 / upside | 926.43 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q3_operating_days, upside_2026q3_daily_rate, upside_2026q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2026q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / upside | 976.43 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_dayrate_sales, upside_2026q3_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2026q3_cost_factor | 2026Q3 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2026q3_om_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 603.90 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(om_q3, upside_2026q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative upside_2026q3_ga | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q3_da | 2026Q3 / upside | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2026q3_sbc | 2026Q3 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2026q3_operating_cost | 2026Q3 / upside | 796.90 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_om_cost, upside_2026q3_ga, upside_2026q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q3_operating_income | 2026Q3 / upside | 179.53 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda | 2026Q3 / upside | 335.53 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q3_da, upside_2026q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2026q3_cash_interest | 2026Q3 / upside | 100.50 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2026q3_cash_tax | 2026Q3 / upside | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2026q3_wc_use | 2026Q3 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2026q3_cash_uses | 2026Q3 / upside | 153.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2026q3_cash_interest, upside_2026q3_cash_tax, upside_2026q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q3_cfo | 2026Q3 / upside | 182.53 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2026q3_capex | 2026Q3 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2026q3_fcf | 2026Q3 / upside | 137.53 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2026q3_debt_principal | 2026Q3 / upside | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2026q3_cash_after_principal | 2026Q3 / upside | 32.53 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2026q4_ancillary | 2026Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2026q4_daily_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 0.47 USD_millions | assumption: $0.475M/day at baseline efficiency; this is not the gross contractual dayrate. |
| Guided revenue less ancillary upside_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor | 2026Q4 / upside | 900.50 USD_millions | derived: Baseline dayrate-linked revenue. Formula: subtract(q4_guide_residual, upside_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Baseline operating days upside_2026q4_implied_days | 2026Q4 / upside | 189,578.9% ratio | derived: Guidance-calibrated operating days, not disclosed fleet utilization. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_daily_sales_anchor, upside_2026q4_daily_rate). |
| Operating-days delivery factor upside_2026q4_execution | 2026Q4 / upside | 102.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Scenario operating days upside_2026q4_operating_days | 2026Q4 / upside | 194,318.4% ratio | derived: Changes activity without adding backlog a second time. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_implied_days, upside_2026q4_execution). |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2026q4_efficiency | 2026Q4 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2026q4_eff_baseline | 2026Q4 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2026q4_eff_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2026q4_efficiency, upside_2026q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2026q4_dayrate_sales | 2026Q4 / upside | 937.36 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_operating_days, upside_2026q4_daily_rate, upside_2026q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 987.36 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_dayrate_sales, upside_2026q4_ancillary). |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2026q4_cost_factor | 2026Q4 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2026q4_om_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 533.12 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(q4_om, upside_2026q4_cost_factor). |
| Q3 G&A budget upside_2026q4_q3_ga | 2026Q4 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| General and administrative upside_2026q4_ga | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | derived: Q4 annual-midpoint residual. Formula: subtract(h2_ga, upside_2026q4_q3_ga). |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2026q4_da | 2026Q4 / upside | 148.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2026q4_sbc | 2026Q4 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2026q4_operating_cost | 2026Q4 / upside | 706.12 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_om_cost, upside_2026q4_ga, upside_2026q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 281.24 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda | 2026Q4 / upside | 437.24 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_da, upside_2026q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2026q4_cash_interest | 2026Q4 / upside | 103.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 27.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2026q4_wc_use | 2026Q4 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2026q4_cash_uses | 2026Q4 / upside | 145.50 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cash_interest, upside_2026q4_cash_tax, upside_2026q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 291.74 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 53.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 238.74 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2026q4_debt_principal | 2026Q4 / upside | 105.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2026q4_cash_after_principal | 2026Q4 / upside | 133.74 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_fcf, upside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2027q1_ancillary | 2027Q1 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2027q1_daily_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 0.49 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days upside_2027q1_operating_days | 2027Q1 / upside | 212,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2027q1_efficiency | 2027Q1 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2027q1_eff_baseline | 2027Q1 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2027q1_eff_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2027q1_efficiency, upside_2027q1_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2027q1_dayrate_sales | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,054.95 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_operating_days, upside_2027q1_daily_rate, upside_2027q1_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 1,099.95 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_dayrate_sales, upside_2027q1_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget upside_2027q1_om_anchor | 2027Q1 / upside | 585.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2027q1_cost_factor | 2027Q1 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2027q1_om_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 579.15 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_om_anchor, upside_2027q1_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative upside_2027q1_ga | 2027Q1 / upside | 48.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q1_da | 2027Q1 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q1_sbc | 2027Q1 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2027q1_operating_cost | 2027Q1 / upside | 777.15 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_om_cost, upside_2027q1_ga, upside_2027q1_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 322.80 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda | 2027Q1 / upside | 480.80 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_da, upside_2027q1_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2027q1_cash_interest | 2027Q1 / upside | 98.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2027q1_wc_use | 2027Q1 / upside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2027q1_cash_uses | 2027Q1 / upside | 138.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_interest, upside_2027q1_cash_tax, upside_2027q1_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 342.80 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q1_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 292.80 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2027q1_debt_principal | 2027Q1 / upside | 80.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2027q1_cash_after_principal | 2027Q1 / upside | 212.80 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q1_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2027q2_ancillary | 2027Q2 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2027q2_daily_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 0.50 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days upside_2027q2_operating_days | 2027Q2 / upside | 218,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2027q2_efficiency | 2027Q2 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2027q2_eff_baseline | 2027Q2 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2027q2_eff_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2027q2_efficiency, upside_2027q2_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2027q2_dayrate_sales | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,106.94 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_operating_days, upside_2027q2_daily_rate, upside_2027q2_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 1,151.94 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_dayrate_sales, upside_2027q2_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget upside_2027q2_om_anchor | 2027Q2 / upside | 595.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2027q2_cost_factor | 2027Q2 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2027q2_om_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 589.05 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_om_anchor, upside_2027q2_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative upside_2027q2_ga | 2027Q2 / upside | 49.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q2_da | 2027Q2 / upside | 152.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q2_sbc | 2027Q2 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2027q2_operating_cost | 2027Q2 / upside | 790.05 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_om_cost, upside_2027q2_ga, upside_2027q2_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 361.89 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda | 2027Q2 / upside | 521.89 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_da, upside_2027q2_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2027q2_cash_interest | 2027Q2 / upside | 96.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2027q2_wc_use | 2027Q2 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2027q2_cash_uses | 2027Q2 / upside | 131.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cash_interest, upside_2027q2_cash_tax, upside_2027q2_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 390.89 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 335.89 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2027q2_debt_principal | 2027Q2 / upside | 115.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2027q2_cash_after_principal | 2027Q2 / upside | 220.89 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q2_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2027q3_ancillary | 2027Q3 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2027q3_daily_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 0.51 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days upside_2027q3_operating_days | 2027Q3 / upside | 221,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2027q3_efficiency | 2027Q3 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2027q3_eff_baseline | 2027Q3 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2027q3_eff_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2027q3_efficiency, upside_2027q3_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2027q3_dayrate_sales | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,144.62 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_operating_days, upside_2027q3_daily_rate, upside_2027q3_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 1,189.62 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_dayrate_sales, upside_2027q3_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget upside_2027q3_om_anchor | 2027Q3 / upside | 605.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2027q3_cost_factor | 2027Q3 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2027q3_om_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 598.95 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_om_anchor, upside_2027q3_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative upside_2027q3_ga | 2027Q3 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q3_da | 2027Q3 / upside | 154.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q3_sbc | 2027Q3 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2027q3_operating_cost | 2027Q3 / upside | 802.95 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_om_cost, upside_2027q3_ga, upside_2027q3_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 386.67 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda | 2027Q3 / upside | 548.67 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_da, upside_2027q3_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2027q3_cash_interest | 2027Q3 / upside | 94.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2027q3_wc_use | 2027Q3 / upside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2027q3_cash_uses | 2027Q3 / upside | 129.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cash_interest, upside_2027q3_cash_tax, upside_2027q3_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 419.67 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 55.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 364.67 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2027q3_debt_principal | 2027Q3 / upside | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2027q3_cash_after_principal | 2027Q3 / upside | 281.67 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q3_debt_principal). |
| Ancillary and contract-accounting revenue upside_2027q4_ancillary | 2027Q4 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Residual beyond dayrate times operating days; excludes treating the entire contract award as current sales. |
| Effective earned revenue per operating day upside_2027q4_daily_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 0.52 USD_millions | assumption: USD millions per operating day; standalone fleet average desk sensitivity. |
| Operating days upside_2027q4_operating_days | 2027Q4 / upside | 226,000.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Revenue efficiency upside_2027q4_efficiency | 2027Q4 / upside | 98.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Baseline revenue efficiency upside_2027q4_eff_baseline | 2027Q4 / upside | 96.5% ratio | assumption: August 5 company revenue-efficiency assumption 96.5%. |
| Revenue efficiency relative to guidance upside_2027q4_eff_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 101.6% ratio | derived: Normalize instead of multiplying baseline earned revenue by efficiency twice. Formula: divide(upside_2027q4_efficiency, upside_2027q4_eff_baseline). |
| Dayrate-linked revenue upside_2027q4_dayrate_sales | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,193.47 USD_millions | derived: Operating days times earned daily revenue and relative efficiency. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_operating_days, upside_2027q4_daily_rate, upside_2027q4_eff_ratio). |
| Standalone contract revenue upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 1,238.47 USD_millions | derived: Ancillary revenue includes contract accounting timing; no Valaris contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_dayrate_sales, upside_2027q4_ancillary). |
| Standalone operating maintenance budget upside_2027q4_om_anchor | 2027Q4 / upside | 615.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating-cost stress factor upside_2027q4_cost_factor | 2027Q4 / upside | 99.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Operating and maintenance upside_2027q4_om_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 608.85 USD_millions | derived: Includes warm/cold stack and ordinary operating costs. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_om_anchor, upside_2027q4_cost_factor). |
| General and administrative upside_2027q4_ga | 2027Q4 / upside | 51.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Depreciation and amortization upside_2027q4_da | 2027Q4 / upside | 156.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Stock compensation upside_2027q4_sbc | 2027Q4 / upside | 8.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Total ordinary operating costs upside_2027q4_operating_cost | 2027Q4 / upside | 815.85 USD_millions | derived: G&A includes equity compensation; no additional stock expense deduction. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_om_cost, upside_2027q4_ga, upside_2027q4_da). |
| GAAP operating income proxy upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 422.62 USD_millions | derived: No forecast impairments or disposal gains. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_operating_cost). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda | 2027Q4 / upside | 586.62 USD_millions | derived: Noncash equity expense is added once; no repeat of exchange-feature gain. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_da, upside_2027q4_sbc). |
| Net cash interest upside_2027q4_cash_interest | 2027Q4 / upside | 92.00 USD_millions | assumption: Q3 expense guide $113M less assumed $5M noncash amortization and $7.5M cash interest income. Later quarters desk coupon/repayment proxy. |
| Cash income taxes upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Net contract timing and other working-capital use upside_2027q4_wc_use | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption, not company guidance. |
| Cash interest taxes and operating timing uses upside_2027q4_cash_uses | 2027Q4 / upside | 122.00 USD_millions | derived: Contract liabilities and deferred costs affect cash independently of backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cash_interest, upside_2027q4_cash_tax, upside_2027q4_wc_use). |
| Operating cash flow proxy upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 464.62 USD_millions | derived: No new debt proceeds or asset-sale cash in operating cash. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_cash_uses). |
| Cash capital expenditure upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: 2026 base totals $150M including H1 $52M; FY2027 is a desk budget. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 414.62 USD_millions | derived: Before financing principal. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Scheduled principal repayment allocation upside_2027q4_debt_principal | 2027Q4 / upside | 83.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk allocation: next four quarters total disclosed $405M twelve months through June 2027; later two quarters use half the $332M next twelve-month maturity bucket. Exact timing may differ. |
| Cash after principal upside_2027q4_cash_after_principal | 2027Q4 / upside | 331.62 USD_millions | derived: Before new financing, voluntary redemptions and Valaris deal cash needs. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_fcf, upside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 4,010.79 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_revenue, upside_2026q3_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 899.77 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_operating_income, upside_2026q3_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_adj_ebitda | FY2026 / upside | 1,524.77 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2026q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 874.27 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cfo, upside_2026q3_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 150.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_capex, upside_2026q3_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 724.27 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_fcf, upside_2026q3_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) upside_fy2026_debt_principal | FY2026 / upside | 796.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_debt_principal, upside_2026q3_debt_principal, upside_2026q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) upside_fy2026_cash_after_principal | FY2026 / upside | -71.73 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(h1_cash_after_principal, upside_2026q3_cash_after_principal, upside_2026q4_cash_after_principal). |
| Standalone contract revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 4,679.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP operating income proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 1,493.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| Adjusted EBITDA proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_adj_ebitda | FY2027 / upside | 2,137.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q2_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q3_adj_ebitda, upside_2027q4_adj_ebitda). |
| Operating cash flow proxy ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 1,617.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capital expenditure ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 210.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 1,407.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Debt principal repayments ($M) upside_fy2027_debt_principal | FY2027 / upside | 361.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_debt_principal, upside_2027q2_debt_principal, upside_2027q3_debt_principal, upside_2027q4_debt_principal). |
| Cash after principal ($M) upside_fy2027_cash_after_principal | FY2027 / upside | 1,046.98 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cash_after_principal, upside_2027q2_cash_after_principal, upside_2027q3_cash_after_principal, upside_2027q4_cash_after_principal). |
Model boundaries
- Standalone Transocean only. The Valaris acquisition remains proposed in reviewed September materials; no acquired sales, new deal shares, combined backlog or projected synergies are consolidated here.
- Official August 5 backlog is approximately $6.7B. The September presentation headline $7.7B explicitly includes $1B Equinor work still subject to license-partner approval. Neither figure is annual revenue.
- August KG2 $300M includes services and mobilization; September Conqueror $80M excludes those items. Unexercised options are not firm backlog, and awards are not added twice to a fleet revenue forecast.
- Operating days, ancillary revenue and quarterly cost allocations are desk assumptions around guidance; this is not a rig-by-rig signed contract schedule. Dayrate units are $M per operating day.
- GAAP operating earnings proxy assumes no new impairments/disposal gains. Exchange-feature marks and merger financing can materially change net income and diluted EPS, which are not forecast.
- Debt principal timing is a desk allocation of disclosed twelve-month maturities, not a complete amortization schedule or refinancing commitment. Cash after principal excludes voluntary redemptions, deal costs outside the allowance, acquisitions and new financing.
- Company liquidity includes restricted cash and revolving availability. June unrestricted cash of $509M is the relevant separate balance; no revolver capacity is treated as cash generated.
Backlog is useful only if execution survives the debt schedule
How much standalone rig cash remains after interest, maintenance capex and scheduled principal?
H1 contract revenue was $2.047B and CFO $400M. Capex of $52M leaves $348M before $586M debt repayments. June cash was $509M plus $286M restricted cash, versus $5.107B principal; $405M principal falls due in the next twelve months, while balance-sheet carrying values differ. Q2 net income includes a $134M exchange-feature gain within interest expense, which is not repeatable cash. Annual revenue guidance is $3.900B-$3.975B and Q3 $920M-$960M. September materials headline $7.7B backlog but footnote the $6.7B August base plus $1B Equinor work awaiting partner approvals. KG2 adds $300M for a two-year term starting Q1 2027 including services/mobilization; Conqueror adds $80M over 170 days excluding those items. These awards inform utilization scenarios but are not simply added to guided revenue. The proposed Valaris combination and $200M-plus synergy ambition remain outside this standalone model.
The competing explanation
Cash flow can improve while debt principal still absorbs it. Dayrate strength may be offset by idle days, mobilization, maintenance or working-capital timing. A merger would change debt, fleet mix and ownership enough that a standalone cash forecast cannot be read as combined-company value.
Risks to track
- Conditional awards and options may not become firm contracted work.
- Technical downtime and customer schedule changes reduce earned revenue.
- Reactivation and maintenance needs may exceed the modeled capex budget.
- Debt repayment/refinancing and exchangeable-bond marks complicate common earnings.
- Valaris approvals, closing terms and integration remain separate event risks.
- Offshore customer capital spending is cyclical and geographically concentrated.
Next checkpoints
- Firm contract conversion · Fleet reports and partner approvals (estimated). Track Equinor conditions and actual KG2/Conqueror starts; separate options from firm terms.
- Cash and debt service · Quarterly accounts (estimated). Reconcile CFO, restricted cash, mandatory principal and any voluntary redemptions.
- Valaris transaction · Approval and closing announcements (estimated). Build a new consolidated ownership/debt model only when the transaction perimeter is established.
Data coverage and open work
- Standalone Transocean only. The Valaris acquisition remains proposed in reviewed September materials; no acquired sales, new deal shares, combined backlog or projected synergies are consolidated here.
- Official August 5 backlog is approximately $6.7B. The September presentation headline $7.7B explicitly includes $1B Equinor work still subject to license-partner approval. Neither figure is annual revenue.
- August KG2 $300M includes services and mobilization; September Conqueror $80M excludes those items. Unexercised options are not firm backlog, and awards are not added twice to a fleet revenue forecast.
- Operating days, ancillary revenue and quarterly cost allocations are desk assumptions around guidance; this is not a rig-by-rig signed contract schedule. Dayrate units are $M per operating day.
- GAAP operating earnings proxy assumes no new impairments/disposal gains. Exchange-feature marks and merger financing can materially change net income and diluted EPS, which are not forecast.
- Debt principal timing is a desk allocation of disclosed twelve-month maturities, not a complete amortization schedule or refinancing commitment. Cash after principal excludes voluntary redemptions, deal costs outside the allowance, acquisitions and new financing.
- Company liquidity includes restricted cash and revolving availability. June unrestricted cash of $509M is the relevant separate balance; no revolver capacity is treated as cash generated.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day downtrend, above its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed weak, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -1.9 | +0.0 | +2.1 | 51% |
| 5 sessions | -4.3 | +0.3 | +5.8 | 54% |
| 10 sessions | -6.4 | +0.3 | +8.4 | 54% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.