$POWL
Business
Powell Industries engineers and manufactures electrical power distribution and control systems for industrial, utility and commercial customers. Custom projects move from order to backlog to delivery and revenue. Data-center demand adds to oil-and-gas and utility work, but engineering capacity, factory execution and customer payment milestones determine margins and cash timing.
Three drivers
- Backlog delivery and new net project orders
- Project mix, engineering capacity and gross margin
- Customer milestone funding and factory investment
Thesis
Our view
Record backlog offers revenue visibility, but timing and cash quality matter more than one large order quarter. Powell expects approximately $1.3B of its $2.4B June backlog to convert over the next twelve months. The model starts with that expectation and adds only explicit new book-and-ship assumptions. Nine-month CFO was $195.0M, including $188.8M from net contract asset and liability movements. Strong customer funding supports production, but should not be annualized as recurring cash profit.
What changes it
Track backlog conversion, net orders after cancellations, project margins and CFO before contract funding. Capacity projects must support profitable delivery without consuming an outsized share of the cash funded by customers.
Scenario ranges
Explicit downside/base/upside business assumptions; not price targets, probabilities or historical market-memory bands.
Model · 8 fiscal quarters (last eight)
| Fiscal quarter | 2024Q4 2024-09-30 | 2025Q1 2024-12-31 | 2025Q2 2025-03-31 | 2025Q3 2025-06-30 | 2025Q4 2025-09-30 | 2026Q1 2025-12-31 | 2026Q2 2026-03-31 | 2026Q3 2026-06-30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($M) | 275.1†1 | 241.42 | 278.63 | 286.34 | 298.0†1 | 251.22 | 296.63 | 311.74 |
| Gross profit ($M) | 80.45 | 59.56 | 83.47 | 87.98 | 93.55 | 71.46 | 87.97 | 95.38 |
| Operating income ($M) | 56.1†9 | 35.610 | 58.911 | 60.112 | 63.2†9 | 42.810 | 57.611 | 64.112 |
| Net income ($M) | 46.113 | 34.814 | 46.314 | 48.214 | 51.413 | 41.414 | 45.914 | 52.214 |
| EPS, diluted ($) | 3.7715 | 2.8616 | 1.2717 | 1.3218 | 4.2215 | 3.4016 | 1.2517 | 1.4218 |
| Diluted shares (M) | — | 12.219 | 36.520 | 36.521 | — | 12.219 | 36.620 | 36.621 |
| Cash ($M) | 315.322 | 325.623 | 359.524 | 398.525 | 450.726 | 490.627 | 537.728 | 633.626 |
| Long-term debt ($M) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash from operations ($M) | -6.0†29 | 37.130 | 22.4†31 | 47.4†32 | 61.1†29 | 43.630 | 51.2†31 | 100.2†32 |
| Capex ($M) | 8.5†33 | 2.234 | 4.1†35 | 5.1†36 | 1.8†33 | 2.034 | 1.8†35 | 6.5†36 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | -14.4†37 | 34.9†38 | 18.3†39 | 42.3†40 | 59.3†37 | 41.6†38 | 49.3†39 | 93.7†40 |
Estimates · base scenario
| Period | Revenue ($M) | EPS ($) | As of | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 342.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q1 | 329.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q2 | 355.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
| 2027Q3 | 394.0 | — | 2026-09-19 | Desk base scenario; calculated from the operating-model inputs below. Not consensus or company guidance. |
Backlog conversion, project margins and advance funding
Start with management expectation that about $1.3B of June backlog converts to revenue over the next twelve months. Allocate that existing backlog to four quarters and add separately assumed new book-and-ship work. Roll backlog forward as beginning backlog plus new net orders less all revenue. The fifth modeled quarter uses an explicit conversion share of remaining backlog. Gross margin and GAAP operating expenses drive earnings; cash flow separates contract-asset/liability funding from other working capital. FY2026 includes the reported nine months and FY2027 sums four desk quarters.
Reported anchors and guidance
| Measure | Period | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| June backlog | 2026Q3 | 2,400.00 | reported. Approximately $2.4B backlog, rounded company disclosure. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| Existing backlog expected revenue in next twelve months | Through June 2027 | 1,300.00 | management guidance. Company approximate timing expectation for the June backlog, not a full forward-revenue forecast. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 new net orders | 2026Q3 | 934.20 | reported. Net of cancellations and scope changes; the major project awards are included. Source · 2026-08-03 |
| June cash and cash equivalents | 2026Q3 | 633.56 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| June contract liabilities | 2026Q3 | 466.36 | reported. Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month CFO before contract funding | 9M FY2026 | 6.28 | derived. Removes net contract asset and liability cash funding, not every working-capital movement. |
| Nine-month CFO less capex | 9M FY2026 | 184.65 | derived. Reported CFO less PP&E purchases. |
Downside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | Net contract funding ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) | CFO before contract funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 1.88 | -11.12 | 13.00 | 284.56 | 76.83 | -10.00 | 48.94 | 11.88 |
| 2027Q1 | 11.68 | -1.32 | 13.00 | 273.12 | 73.74 | 0.00 | 46.98 | 11.68 |
| 2027Q2 | 12.16 | -0.84 | 13.00 | 301.00 | 81.27 | 0.00 | 51.77 | 12.16 |
| 2027Q3 | 22.75 | 9.75 | 13.00 | 335.32 | 90.54 | 10.00 | 57.68 | 12.75 |
| FY2026 | 196.92 | 173.53 | 23.39 | 1,144.10 | 331.48 | 178.76 | 213.37 | 18.15 |
| FY2027 | 68.96 | 16.96 | 52.00 | 1,222.22 | 330.00 | 20.00 | 210.22 | 48.96 |
Base scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | Net contract funding ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) | CFO before contract funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 58.93 | 48.93 | 10.00 | 342.00 | 102.60 | 25.00 | 70.11 | 33.93 |
| 2027Q1 | 57.91 | 47.91 | 10.00 | 329.00 | 98.70 | 25.00 | 67.45 | 32.91 |
| 2027Q2 | 59.96 | 49.96 | 10.00 | 355.00 | 106.50 | 25.00 | 72.78 | 34.96 |
| 2027Q3 | 63.03 | 53.03 | 10.00 | 394.00 | 118.20 | 25.00 | 80.77 | 38.03 |
| FY2026 | 253.97 | 233.58 | 20.39 | 1,201.54 | 357.25 | 213.76 | 234.54 | 40.21 |
| FY2027 | 246.66 | 206.66 | 40.00 | 1,506.80 | 452.04 | 100.00 | 308.89 | 146.66 |
Upside scenario
| Period | Operating cash flow ($M) | CFO less capex ($M) | Cash capex ($M) | Revenue ($M) | GAAP gross profit ($M) | Net contract funding ($M) | GAAP operating income ($M) | CFO before contract funding ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q4 | 91.79 | 82.79 | 9.00 | 376.96 | 120.63 | 40.00 | 86.70 | 51.79 |
| 2027Q1 | 90.73 | 81.73 | 9.00 | 367.92 | 117.73 | 40.00 | 84.62 | 50.73 |
| 2027Q2 | 94.03 | 85.03 | 9.00 | 396.00 | 126.72 | 40.00 | 91.08 | 54.03 |
| 2027Q3 | 99.57 | 90.57 | 9.00 | 443.12 | 141.80 | 40.00 | 101.92 | 59.57 |
| FY2026 | 286.83 | 267.44 | 19.39 | 1,236.50 | 375.28 | 228.76 | 251.13 | 58.07 |
| FY2027 | 393.50 | 357.50 | 36.00 | 1,731.92 | 554.21 | 160.00 | 398.34 | 233.50 |
All inputs and formulas — reproduce this model
| Input / calculation | Period / case | Value / unit | Evidence or assumption |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nine-month revenue ytd_revenue | 9M FY2026 / shared | 859.54 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month GAAP gross profit ytd_gross_profit | 9M FY2026 / shared | 254.65 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month GAAP operating income ytd_operating_income | 9M FY2026 / shared | 164.43 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month net contract assets/liabilities cash flow ytd_contract_funding | 9M FY2026 / shared | 188.76 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month operating cash flow ytd_cfo | 9M FY2026 / shared | 195.04 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month PP&E purchases ytd_capex | 9M FY2026 / shared | 10.39 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Nine-month CFO before contract funding ytd_cfo_before_contract_funding | 9M FY2026 / shared | 6.28 USD_millions | derived: Removes net contract asset and liability cash funding, not every working-capital movement. Formula: subtract(ytd_cfo, ytd_contract_funding). |
| Nine-month CFO less capex ytd_fcf | 9M FY2026 / shared | 184.65 USD_millions | derived: Reported CFO less PP&E purchases. Formula: subtract(ytd_cfo, ytd_capex). |
| June cash and cash equivalents cash | 2026Q3 / shared | 633.56 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| June contract assets contract_assets | 2026Q3 / shared | 116.00 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| June contract liabilities contract_liabilities | 2026Q3 / shared | 466.36 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 revenue q3_revenue | 2026Q3 / shared | 311.74 USD_millions | reported: Reported consolidated amount, converted from thousands to millions. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Q3 new net orders q3_orders | 2026Q3 / shared | 934.20 USD_millions | reported: Net of cancellations and scope changes; the major project awards are included. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| June backlog backlog | 2026Q3 / shared | 2,400.00 USD_millions | reported: Approximately $2.4B backlog, rounded company disclosure. Primary source · 2026-08-03 |
| Existing backlog expected revenue in next twelve months backlog_next12 | Through June 2027 / shared | 1,300.00 USD_millions | management guidance: Company approximate timing expectation for the June backlog, not a full forward-revenue forecast. Primary source · 2026-08-04 |
| Backlog conversion versus twelve-month expectation downside_delivery | Next 12 months / downside | 88.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing sensitivity; upside accelerates some later backlog, downside shifts it beyond June 2027. |
| Existing June backlog converted in next year downside_backlog_conversion | Next 12 months / downside | 1,144.00 USD_millions | derived: Applies desk timing to the company disclosed subset of backlog. Formula: multiply(backlog_next12, downside_delivery). |
| New net orders downside_2026q4_new_orders | 2026Q4 / downside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion downside_2026q4_backlog_weight | 2026Q4 / downside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog downside_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 274.56 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(downside_backlog_conversion, downside_2026q4_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue downside_2026q4_bookship | 2026Q4 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue downside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / downside | 284.56 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue, downside_2026q4_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders downside_2026q4_available_backlog | 2026Q4 / downside | 2,700.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(backlog, downside_2026q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog downside_2026q4_ending_backlog | 2026Q4 / downside | 2,415.44 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_available_backlog, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin downside_2026q4_gm | 2026Q4 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / downside | 76.83 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_2026q4_opex_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 9.8% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / downside | 27.89 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income downside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / downside | 48.94 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income downside_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income downside_2026q4_cash_pretax | 2026Q4 / downside | 52.94 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_operating_income, downside_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income downside_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.77 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_cash_pretax, downside_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance downside_2026q4_aftertax | 2026Q4 / downside | 39.18 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cash_pretax, downside_2026q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback downside_2026q4_noncash | 2026Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges downside_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / downside | 43.18 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_aftertax, downside_2026q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue downside_2026q4_wc_ratio | 2026Q4 / downside | 11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use downside_2026q4_other_wc | 2026Q4 / downside | 31.30 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(downside_2026q4_revenue, downside_2026q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding downside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / downside | 11.88 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_noncash_bridge, downside_2026q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution downside_2026q4_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / downside | -10.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow downside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / downside | 1.88 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures downside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex downside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / downside | -11.12 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2026q4_cfo, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| New net orders downside_2027q1_new_orders | 2027Q1 / downside | 280.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion downside_2027q1_backlog_weight | 2027Q1 / downside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog downside_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 263.12 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(downside_backlog_conversion, downside_2027q1_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue downside_2027q1_bookship | 2027Q1 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue downside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / downside | 273.12 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue, downside_2027q1_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders downside_2027q1_available_backlog | 2027Q1 / downside | 2,695.44 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2026q4_ending_backlog, downside_2027q1_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog downside_2027q1_ending_backlog | 2027Q1 / downside | 2,422.32 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_available_backlog, downside_2027q1_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin downside_2027q1_gm | 2027Q1 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / downside | 73.74 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_2027q1_opex_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 9.8% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / downside | 26.77 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / downside | 46.98 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q1_opex). |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income downside_2027q1_cash_pretax | 2027Q1 / downside | 50.98 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income downside_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / downside | 13.25 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_cash_pretax, downside_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance downside_2027q1_aftertax | 2027Q1 / downside | 37.72 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cash_pretax, downside_2027q1_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback downside_2027q1_noncash | 2027Q1 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges downside_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / downside | 41.72 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_aftertax, downside_2027q1_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue downside_2027q1_wc_ratio | 2027Q1 / downside | 11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use downside_2027q1_other_wc | 2027Q1 / downside | 30.04 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q1_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding downside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / downside | 11.68 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q1_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution downside_2027q1_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / downside | 11.68 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q1_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures downside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / downside | -1.32 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q1_capex). |
| New net orders downside_2027q2_new_orders | 2027Q2 / downside | 300.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion downside_2027q2_backlog_weight | 2027Q2 / downside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog downside_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 286.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(downside_backlog_conversion, downside_2027q2_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue downside_2027q2_bookship | 2027Q2 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue downside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / downside | 301.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue, downside_2027q2_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders downside_2027q2_available_backlog | 2027Q2 / downside | 2,722.32 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_ending_backlog, downside_2027q2_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog downside_2027q2_ending_backlog | 2027Q2 / downside | 2,421.32 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_available_backlog, downside_2027q2_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin downside_2027q2_gm | 2027Q2 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / downside | 81.27 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_2027q2_opex_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 9.8% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / downside | 29.50 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / downside | 51.77 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_opex). |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income downside_2027q2_cash_pretax | 2027Q2 / downside | 55.77 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income downside_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / downside | 14.50 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_cash_pretax, downside_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance downside_2027q2_aftertax | 2027Q2 / downside | 41.27 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cash_pretax, downside_2027q2_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback downside_2027q2_noncash | 2027Q2 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges downside_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / downside | 45.27 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_aftertax, downside_2027q2_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue downside_2027q2_wc_ratio | 2027Q2 / downside | 11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use downside_2027q2_other_wc | 2027Q2 / downside | 33.11 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q2_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding downside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.16 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q2_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution downside_2027q2_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / downside | 0.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / downside | 12.16 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q2_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures downside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / downside | -0.84 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q2_capex). |
| New net orders downside_2027q3_new_orders | 2027Q3 / downside | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion downside_2027q3_backlog_weight | 2027Q3 / downside | 28.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog downside_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 320.32 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(downside_backlog_conversion, downside_2027q3_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue downside_2027q3_bookship | 2027Q3 / downside | 15.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue downside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / downside | 335.32 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue, downside_2027q3_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders downside_2027q3_available_backlog | 2027Q3 / downside | 2,741.32 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q2_ending_backlog, downside_2027q3_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog downside_2027q3_ending_backlog | 2027Q3 / downside | 2,406.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_available_backlog, downside_2027q3_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin downside_2027q3_gm | 2027Q3 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / downside | 90.54 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_2027q3_opex_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 9.8% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / downside | 32.86 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / downside | 57.68 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_opex). |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income downside_2027q3_cash_pretax | 2027Q3 / downside | 61.68 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income downside_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / downside | 16.04 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_cash_pretax, downside_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance downside_2027q3_aftertax | 2027Q3 / downside | 45.64 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cash_pretax, downside_2027q3_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback downside_2027q3_noncash | 2027Q3 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges downside_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / downside | 49.64 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_aftertax, downside_2027q3_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue downside_2027q3_wc_ratio | 2027Q3 / downside | 11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use downside_2027q3_other_wc | 2027Q3 / downside | 36.89 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q3_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding downside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / downside | 12.75 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q3_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution downside_2027q3_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / downside | 22.75 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q3_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures downside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / downside | 9.75 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q3_capex). |
| New net orders downside_2027q4_new_orders | 2027Q4 / downside | 320.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Opening backlog converted in quarter downside_2027q4_backlog_fraction | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Revenue from remaining opening backlog downside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / downside | 312.78 USD_millions | derived: Fifth quarter recognizes a share of the rolled-forward backlog; no additional book-and-ship term. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q3_ending_backlog, downside_2027q4_backlog_fraction). |
| Backlog plus new net orders downside_2027q4_available_backlog | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,726.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(downside_2027q3_ending_backlog, downside_2027q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog downside_2027q4_ending_backlog | 2027Q4 / downside | 2,413.22 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_available_backlog, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin downside_2027q4_gm | 2027Q4 / downside | 27.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit downside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / downside | 84.45 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue downside_2027q4_opex_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 9.8% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses downside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / downside | 30.65 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income downside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / downside | 53.80 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income downside_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income downside_2027q4_cash_pretax | 2027Q4 / downside | 57.80 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_operating_income, downside_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income downside_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / downside | 26.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance downside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / downside | 15.03 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_cash_pretax, downside_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance downside_2027q4_aftertax | 2027Q4 / downside | 42.77 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cash_pretax, downside_2027q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback downside_2027q4_noncash | 2027Q4 / downside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges downside_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / downside | 46.77 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_aftertax, downside_2027q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue downside_2027q4_wc_ratio | 2027Q4 / downside | 11.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use downside_2027q4_other_wc | 2027Q4 / downside | 34.41 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(downside_2027q4_revenue, downside_2027q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding downside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / downside | 12.36 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_noncash_bridge, downside_2027q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution downside_2027q4_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / downside | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow downside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / downside | 22.36 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(downside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures downside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / downside | 13.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex downside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / downside | 9.36 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(downside_2027q4_cfo, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| Revenue ($M) downside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / downside | 1,144.10 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, downside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) downside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / downside | 331.48 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, downside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) downside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / downside | 213.37 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, downside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2026 / downside | 18.15 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) downside_fy2026_contract_funding | FY2026 / downside | 178.76 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_contract_funding, downside_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / downside | 196.92 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, downside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) downside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / downside | 23.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, downside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / downside | 173.53 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, downside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Revenue ($M) downside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / downside | 1,222.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_revenue, downside_2027q2_revenue, downside_2027q3_revenue, downside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) downside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / downside | 330.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_gross_profit, downside_2027q2_gross_profit, downside_2027q3_gross_profit, downside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) downside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / downside | 210.22 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_operating_income, downside_2027q2_operating_income, downside_2027q3_operating_income, downside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2027 / downside | 48.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, downside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) downside_fy2027_contract_funding | FY2027 / downside | 20.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_contract_funding, downside_2027q2_contract_funding, downside_2027q3_contract_funding, downside_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) downside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / downside | 68.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_cfo, downside_2027q2_cfo, downside_2027q3_cfo, downside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) downside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / downside | 52.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_capex, downside_2027q2_capex, downside_2027q3_capex, downside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) downside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / downside | 16.96 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(downside_2027q1_fcf, downside_2027q2_fcf, downside_2027q3_fcf, downside_2027q4_fcf). |
| Backlog conversion versus twelve-month expectation base_delivery | Next 12 months / base | 100.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing sensitivity; upside accelerates some later backlog, downside shifts it beyond June 2027. |
| Existing June backlog converted in next year base_backlog_conversion | Next 12 months / base | 1,300.00 USD_millions | derived: Applies desk timing to the company disclosed subset of backlog. Formula: multiply(backlog_next12, base_delivery). |
| New net orders base_2026q4_new_orders | 2026Q4 / base | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion base_2026q4_backlog_weight | 2026Q4 / base | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog base_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 312.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(base_backlog_conversion, base_2026q4_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue base_2026q4_bookship | 2026Q4 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue base_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / base | 342.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue, base_2026q4_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders base_2026q4_available_backlog | 2026Q4 / base | 2,800.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(backlog, base_2026q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog base_2026q4_ending_backlog | 2026Q4 / base | 2,458.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_available_backlog, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin base_2026q4_gm | 2026Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit base_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / base | 102.60 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue base_2026q4_opex_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 9.5% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / base | 32.49 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income base_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / base | 70.11 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_gross_profit, base_2026q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income base_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income base_2026q4_cash_pretax | 2026Q4 / base | 74.11 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_operating_income, base_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income base_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / base | 18.53 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_cash_pretax, base_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance base_2026q4_aftertax | 2026Q4 / base | 55.58 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cash_pretax, base_2026q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback base_2026q4_noncash | 2026Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges base_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / base | 59.58 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_aftertax, base_2026q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue base_2026q4_wc_ratio | 2026Q4 / base | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use base_2026q4_other_wc | 2026Q4 / base | 25.65 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(base_2026q4_revenue, base_2026q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding base_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / base | 33.93 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_noncash_bridge, base_2026q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution base_2026q4_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow base_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / base | 58.93 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures base_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex base_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / base | 48.93 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2026q4_cfo, base_2026q4_capex). |
| New net orders base_2027q1_new_orders | 2027Q1 / base | 400.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion base_2027q1_backlog_weight | 2027Q1 / base | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog base_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 299.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(base_backlog_conversion, base_2027q1_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue base_2027q1_bookship | 2027Q1 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue base_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / base | 329.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue, base_2027q1_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders base_2027q1_available_backlog | 2027Q1 / base | 2,858.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(base_2026q4_ending_backlog, base_2027q1_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog base_2027q1_ending_backlog | 2027Q1 / base | 2,529.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_available_backlog, base_2027q1_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin base_2027q1_gm | 2027Q1 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / base | 98.70 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue base_2027q1_opex_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 9.5% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / base | 31.25 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / base | 67.45 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q1_opex). |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income base_2027q1_cash_pretax | 2027Q1 / base | 71.45 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income base_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / base | 17.86 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_cash_pretax, base_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance base_2027q1_aftertax | 2027Q1 / base | 53.58 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cash_pretax, base_2027q1_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback base_2027q1_noncash | 2027Q1 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges base_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / base | 57.58 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_aftertax, base_2027q1_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue base_2027q1_wc_ratio | 2027Q1 / base | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use base_2027q1_other_wc | 2027Q1 / base | 24.68 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q1_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding base_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / base | 32.91 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_noncash_bridge, base_2027q1_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution base_2027q1_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / base | 57.91 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q1_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures base_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / base | 47.91 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q1_capex). |
| New net orders base_2027q2_new_orders | 2027Q2 / base | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion base_2027q2_backlog_weight | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog base_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 325.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(base_backlog_conversion, base_2027q2_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue base_2027q2_bookship | 2027Q2 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue base_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / base | 355.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue, base_2027q2_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders base_2027q2_available_backlog | 2027Q2 / base | 2,979.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_ending_backlog, base_2027q2_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog base_2027q2_ending_backlog | 2027Q2 / base | 2,624.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_available_backlog, base_2027q2_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin base_2027q2_gm | 2027Q2 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / base | 106.50 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue base_2027q2_opex_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 9.5% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / base | 33.73 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / base | 72.78 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q2_opex). |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income base_2027q2_cash_pretax | 2027Q2 / base | 76.78 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income base_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / base | 19.19 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_cash_pretax, base_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance base_2027q2_aftertax | 2027Q2 / base | 57.58 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cash_pretax, base_2027q2_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback base_2027q2_noncash | 2027Q2 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges base_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / base | 61.58 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_aftertax, base_2027q2_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue base_2027q2_wc_ratio | 2027Q2 / base | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use base_2027q2_other_wc | 2027Q2 / base | 26.62 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q2_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding base_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / base | 34.96 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_noncash_bridge, base_2027q2_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution base_2027q2_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / base | 59.96 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q2_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures base_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / base | 49.96 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q2_capex). |
| New net orders base_2027q3_new_orders | 2027Q3 / base | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion base_2027q3_backlog_weight | 2027Q3 / base | 28.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog base_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 364.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(base_backlog_conversion, base_2027q3_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue base_2027q3_bookship | 2027Q3 / base | 30.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue base_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / base | 394.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue, base_2027q3_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders base_2027q3_available_backlog | 2027Q3 / base | 3,074.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q2_ending_backlog, base_2027q3_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog base_2027q3_ending_backlog | 2027Q3 / base | 2,680.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_available_backlog, base_2027q3_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin base_2027q3_gm | 2027Q3 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / base | 118.20 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue base_2027q3_opex_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 9.5% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / base | 37.43 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / base | 80.77 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q3_opex). |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income base_2027q3_cash_pretax | 2027Q3 / base | 84.77 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income base_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / base | 21.19 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_cash_pretax, base_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance base_2027q3_aftertax | 2027Q3 / base | 63.58 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cash_pretax, base_2027q3_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback base_2027q3_noncash | 2027Q3 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges base_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / base | 67.58 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_aftertax, base_2027q3_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue base_2027q3_wc_ratio | 2027Q3 / base | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use base_2027q3_other_wc | 2027Q3 / base | 29.55 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q3_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding base_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / base | 38.03 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_noncash_bridge, base_2027q3_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution base_2027q3_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / base | 63.03 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q3_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures base_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / base | 53.03 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q3_capex). |
| New net orders base_2027q4_new_orders | 2027Q4 / base | 450.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Opening backlog converted in quarter base_2027q4_backlog_fraction | 2027Q4 / base | 16.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Revenue from remaining opening backlog base_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / base | 428.80 USD_millions | derived: Fifth quarter recognizes a share of the rolled-forward backlog; no additional book-and-ship term. Formula: multiply(base_2027q3_ending_backlog, base_2027q4_backlog_fraction). |
| Backlog plus new net orders base_2027q4_available_backlog | 2027Q4 / base | 3,130.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(base_2027q3_ending_backlog, base_2027q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog base_2027q4_ending_backlog | 2027Q4 / base | 2,701.20 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_available_backlog, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin base_2027q4_gm | 2027Q4 / base | 30.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit base_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / base | 128.64 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue base_2027q4_opex_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 9.5% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses base_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / base | 40.74 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income base_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / base | 87.90 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_gross_profit, base_2027q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income base_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income base_2027q4_cash_pretax | 2027Q4 / base | 91.90 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_operating_income, base_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income base_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / base | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance base_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / base | 22.98 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_cash_pretax, base_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance base_2027q4_aftertax | 2027Q4 / base | 68.93 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cash_pretax, base_2027q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback base_2027q4_noncash | 2027Q4 / base | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges base_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / base | 72.93 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_aftertax, base_2027q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue base_2027q4_wc_ratio | 2027Q4 / base | 7.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use base_2027q4_other_wc | 2027Q4 / base | 32.16 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(base_2027q4_revenue, base_2027q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding base_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / base | 40.77 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_noncash_bridge, base_2027q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution base_2027q4_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / base | 25.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow base_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / base | 65.77 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(base_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures base_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / base | 10.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex base_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / base | 55.77 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(base_2027q4_cfo, base_2027q4_capex). |
| Revenue ($M) base_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / base | 1,201.54 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, base_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) base_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / base | 357.25 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, base_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) base_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / base | 234.54 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, base_2026q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) base_fy2026_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2026 / base | 40.21 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) base_fy2026_contract_funding | FY2026 / base | 213.76 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_contract_funding, base_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / base | 253.97 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, base_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) base_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / base | 20.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, base_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / base | 233.58 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, base_2026q4_fcf). |
| Revenue ($M) base_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / base | 1,506.80 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_revenue, base_2027q2_revenue, base_2027q3_revenue, base_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) base_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / base | 452.04 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_gross_profit, base_2027q2_gross_profit, base_2027q3_gross_profit, base_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) base_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / base | 308.89 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_operating_income, base_2027q2_operating_income, base_2027q3_operating_income, base_2027q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) base_fy2027_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2027 / base | 146.66 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, base_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) base_fy2027_contract_funding | FY2027 / base | 100.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_contract_funding, base_2027q2_contract_funding, base_2027q3_contract_funding, base_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) base_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / base | 246.66 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_cfo, base_2027q2_cfo, base_2027q3_cfo, base_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) base_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / base | 40.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_capex, base_2027q2_capex, base_2027q3_capex, base_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) base_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / base | 206.66 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(base_2027q1_fcf, base_2027q2_fcf, base_2027q3_fcf, base_2027q4_fcf). |
| Backlog conversion versus twelve-month expectation upside_delivery | Next 12 months / upside | 108.0% ratio | assumption: Desk timing sensitivity; upside accelerates some later backlog, downside shifts it beyond June 2027. |
| Existing June backlog converted in next year upside_backlog_conversion | Next 12 months / upside | 1,404.00 USD_millions | derived: Applies desk timing to the company disclosed subset of backlog. Formula: multiply(backlog_next12, upside_delivery). |
| New net orders upside_2026q4_new_orders | 2026Q4 / upside | 500.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion upside_2026q4_backlog_weight | 2026Q4 / upside | 24.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog upside_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 336.96 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(upside_backlog_conversion, upside_2026q4_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue upside_2026q4_bookship | 2026Q4 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue upside_2026q4_revenue | 2026Q4 / upside | 376.96 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_old_backlog_revenue, upside_2026q4_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders upside_2026q4_available_backlog | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,900.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(backlog, upside_2026q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog upside_2026q4_ending_backlog | 2026Q4 / upside | 2,523.04 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_available_backlog, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin upside_2026q4_gm | 2026Q4 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2026q4_gross_profit | 2026Q4 / upside | 120.63 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_2026q4_opex_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2026q4_opex | 2026Q4 / upside | 33.93 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income upside_2026q4_operating_income | 2026Q4 / upside | 86.70 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income upside_2026q4_interest | 2026Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income upside_2026q4_cash_pretax | 2026Q4 / upside | 90.70 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_operating_income, upside_2026q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income upside_2026q4_tax_rate | 2026Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2026q4_cash_tax | 2026Q4 / upside | 22.68 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_cash_pretax, upside_2026q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance upside_2026q4_aftertax | 2026Q4 / upside | 68.03 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cash_pretax, upside_2026q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback upside_2026q4_noncash | 2026Q4 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges upside_2026q4_noncash_bridge | 2026Q4 / upside | 72.53 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_aftertax, upside_2026q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue upside_2026q4_wc_ratio | 2026Q4 / upside | 5.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use upside_2026q4_other_wc | 2026Q4 / upside | 20.73 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(upside_2026q4_revenue, upside_2026q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding upside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / upside | 51.79 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_noncash_bridge, upside_2026q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution upside_2026q4_contract_funding | 2026Q4 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow upside_2026q4_cfo | 2026Q4 / upside | 91.79 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures upside_2026q4_capex | 2026Q4 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex upside_2026q4_fcf | 2026Q4 / upside | 82.79 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2026q4_cfo, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| New net orders upside_2027q1_new_orders | 2027Q1 / upside | 500.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion upside_2027q1_backlog_weight | 2027Q1 / upside | 23.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog upside_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 322.92 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(upside_backlog_conversion, upside_2027q1_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue upside_2027q1_bookship | 2027Q1 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue upside_2027q1_revenue | 2027Q1 / upside | 367.92 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_old_backlog_revenue, upside_2027q1_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders upside_2027q1_available_backlog | 2027Q1 / upside | 3,023.04 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2026q4_ending_backlog, upside_2027q1_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog upside_2027q1_ending_backlog | 2027Q1 / upside | 2,655.12 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_available_backlog, upside_2027q1_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin upside_2027q1_gm | 2027Q1 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q1_gross_profit | 2027Q1 / upside | 117.73 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_2027q1_opex_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q1_opex | 2027Q1 / upside | 33.11 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q1_operating_income | 2027Q1 / upside | 84.62 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q1_opex). |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q1_interest | 2027Q1 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income upside_2027q1_cash_pretax | 2027Q1 / upside | 88.62 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q1_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income upside_2027q1_tax_rate | 2027Q1 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q1_cash_tax | 2027Q1 / upside | 22.16 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_cash_pretax, upside_2027q1_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance upside_2027q1_aftertax | 2027Q1 / upside | 66.47 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cash_pretax, upside_2027q1_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback upside_2027q1_noncash | 2027Q1 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges upside_2027q1_noncash_bridge | 2027Q1 / upside | 70.97 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_aftertax, upside_2027q1_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue upside_2027q1_wc_ratio | 2027Q1 / upside | 5.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use upside_2027q1_other_wc | 2027Q1 / upside | 20.24 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q1_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding upside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / upside | 50.73 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q1_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution upside_2027q1_contract_funding | 2027Q1 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q1_cfo | 2027Q1 / upside | 90.73 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q1_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures upside_2027q1_capex | 2027Q1 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q1_fcf | 2027Q1 / upside | 81.73 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q1_capex). |
| New net orders upside_2027q2_new_orders | 2027Q2 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion upside_2027q2_backlog_weight | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog upside_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 351.00 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(upside_backlog_conversion, upside_2027q2_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue upside_2027q2_bookship | 2027Q2 / upside | 45.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue upside_2027q2_revenue | 2027Q2 / upside | 396.00 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_old_backlog_revenue, upside_2027q2_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders upside_2027q2_available_backlog | 2027Q2 / upside | 3,205.12 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_ending_backlog, upside_2027q2_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog upside_2027q2_ending_backlog | 2027Q2 / upside | 2,809.12 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_available_backlog, upside_2027q2_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin upside_2027q2_gm | 2027Q2 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q2_gross_profit | 2027Q2 / upside | 126.72 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_2027q2_opex_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q2_opex | 2027Q2 / upside | 35.64 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q2_operating_income | 2027Q2 / upside | 91.08 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_opex). |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q2_interest | 2027Q2 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income upside_2027q2_cash_pretax | 2027Q2 / upside | 95.08 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q2_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income upside_2027q2_tax_rate | 2027Q2 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q2_cash_tax | 2027Q2 / upside | 23.77 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_cash_pretax, upside_2027q2_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance upside_2027q2_aftertax | 2027Q2 / upside | 71.31 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cash_pretax, upside_2027q2_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback upside_2027q2_noncash | 2027Q2 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges upside_2027q2_noncash_bridge | 2027Q2 / upside | 75.81 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_aftertax, upside_2027q2_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue upside_2027q2_wc_ratio | 2027Q2 / upside | 5.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use upside_2027q2_other_wc | 2027Q2 / upside | 21.78 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q2_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding upside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / upside | 54.03 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q2_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution upside_2027q2_contract_funding | 2027Q2 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q2_cfo | 2027Q2 / upside | 94.03 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q2_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures upside_2027q2_capex | 2027Q2 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q2_fcf | 2027Q2 / upside | 85.03 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q2_capex). |
| New net orders upside_2027q3_new_orders | 2027Q3 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Share of twelve-month backlog conversion upside_2027q3_backlog_weight | 2027Q3 / upside | 28.0% ratio | assumption: Four quarter shares sum to one. |
| Revenue from June 2026 backlog upside_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 393.12 USD_millions | derived: Recognizes a portion of the June backlog; no double counting of large disclosed awards. Formula: multiply(upside_backlog_conversion, upside_2027q3_backlog_weight). |
| New book-and-ship revenue upside_2027q3_bookship | 2027Q3 / upside | 50.00 USD_millions | assumption: Assumed new orders booked and recognized within the quarter; included in new net orders. |
| Revenue upside_2027q3_revenue | 2027Q3 / upside | 443.12 USD_millions | derived: Existing June backlog conversion plus separately assumed new work. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_old_backlog_revenue, upside_2027q3_bookship). |
| Backlog plus new net orders upside_2027q3_available_backlog | 2027Q3 / upside | 3,359.12 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q2_ending_backlog, upside_2027q3_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog upside_2027q3_ending_backlog | 2027Q3 / upside | 2,916.00 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_available_backlog, upside_2027q3_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin upside_2027q3_gm | 2027Q3 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q3_gross_profit | 2027Q3 / upside | 141.80 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_2027q3_opex_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q3_opex | 2027Q3 / upside | 39.88 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q3_operating_income | 2027Q3 / upside | 101.92 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_opex). |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q3_interest | 2027Q3 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income upside_2027q3_cash_pretax | 2027Q3 / upside | 105.92 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q3_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income upside_2027q3_tax_rate | 2027Q3 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q3_cash_tax | 2027Q3 / upside | 26.48 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_cash_pretax, upside_2027q3_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance upside_2027q3_aftertax | 2027Q3 / upside | 79.44 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cash_pretax, upside_2027q3_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback upside_2027q3_noncash | 2027Q3 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges upside_2027q3_noncash_bridge | 2027Q3 / upside | 83.94 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_aftertax, upside_2027q3_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue upside_2027q3_wc_ratio | 2027Q3 / upside | 5.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use upside_2027q3_other_wc | 2027Q3 / upside | 24.37 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q3_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding upside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / upside | 59.57 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q3_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution upside_2027q3_contract_funding | 2027Q3 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q3_cfo | 2027Q3 / upside | 99.57 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q3_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures upside_2027q3_capex | 2027Q3 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q3_fcf | 2027Q3 / upside | 90.57 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q3_capex). |
| New net orders upside_2027q4_new_orders | 2027Q4 / upside | 550.00 USD_millions | assumption: Includes all book-and-ship work in the revenue scenario; not extrapolated from the record Q3 order quarter. |
| Opening backlog converted in quarter upside_2027q4_backlog_fraction | 2027Q4 / upside | 18.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Revenue from remaining opening backlog upside_2027q4_revenue | 2027Q4 / upside | 524.88 USD_millions | derived: Fifth quarter recognizes a share of the rolled-forward backlog; no additional book-and-ship term. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q3_ending_backlog, upside_2027q4_backlog_fraction). |
| Backlog plus new net orders upside_2027q4_available_backlog | 2027Q4 / upside | 3,466.00 USD_millions | derived: New net orders include book-and-ship; historical large awards are already in starting backlog. Formula: sum(upside_2027q3_ending_backlog, upside_2027q4_new_orders). |
| Ending backlog upside_2027q4_ending_backlog | 2027Q4 / upside | 2,941.12 USD_millions | derived: Beginning backlog plus net orders minus all recognized revenue, once. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_available_backlog, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross margin upside_2027q4_gm | 2027Q4 / upside | 32.0% ratio | assumption: Desk project mix, execution and factory utilization sensitivity. |
| GAAP gross profit upside_2027q4_gross_profit | 2027Q4 / upside | 167.96 USD_millions | derived: Revenue times assumed project gross margin. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_gm). |
| GAAP operating expense / revenue upside_2027q4_opex_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 9.0% ratio | assumption: Includes selling, administrative and R&D costs; no stock-compensation exclusion. |
| GAAP operating expenses upside_2027q4_opex | 2027Q4 / upside | 47.24 USD_millions | derived: Expense ratio includes the ramp in capacity and engineering support. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_opex_ratio). |
| GAAP operating income upside_2027q4_operating_income | 2027Q4 / upside | 120.72 USD_millions | derived: Gross profit less GAAP operating expenses. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_opex). |
| Net cash interest income upside_2027q4_interest | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Operating income plus net interest income upside_2027q4_cash_pretax | 2027Q4 / upside | 124.72 USD_millions | derived: Cash interest approximation; not a debt or investment balance schedule. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_operating_income, upside_2027q4_interest). |
| Cash tax / pretax income upside_2027q4_tax_rate | 2027Q4 / upside | 25.0% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash tax allowance upside_2027q4_cash_tax | 2027Q4 / upside | 31.18 USD_millions | derived: Assumed cash tax rate, with no deferred-tax schedule. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_cash_pretax, upside_2027q4_tax_rate). |
| Cash earnings after tax allowance upside_2027q4_aftertax | 2027Q4 / upside | 93.54 USD_millions | derived: Operating income and interest less assumed cash taxes. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cash_pretax, upside_2027q4_cash_tax). |
| D&A and stock compensation addback upside_2027q4_noncash | 2027Q4 / upside | 4.50 USD_millions | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Cash earnings plus noncash charges upside_2027q4_noncash_bridge | 2027Q4 / upside | 98.04 USD_millions | derived: Noncash addback is not an ownership benefit; capital needs remain in capex. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_aftertax, upside_2027q4_noncash). |
| Other working-capital cash use / revenue upside_2027q4_wc_ratio | 2027Q4 / upside | 5.5% ratio | assumption: Desk assumption; not company guidance. |
| Non-contract working-capital cash use upside_2027q4_other_wc | 2027Q4 / upside | 28.87 USD_millions | derived: Receivables, inventory, payables and other operating balances, excluding contract assets/liabilities. Formula: multiply(upside_2027q4_revenue, upside_2027q4_wc_ratio). |
| CFO before contract funding upside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / upside | 69.17 USD_millions | derived: Analytical cash bridge before the separate contract funding movement. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_noncash_bridge, upside_2027q4_other_wc). |
| Net contract assets/liabilities cash contribution upside_2027q4_contract_funding | 2027Q4 / upside | 40.00 USD_millions | assumption: New advances and billings less project delivery/contract asset growth; cash timing only, not incremental revenue. |
| Operating cash flow upside_2027q4_cfo | 2027Q4 / upside | 109.17 USD_millions | derived: Cash before contract funding plus the net contract funding contribution. Formula: sum(upside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Cash capital expenditures upside_2027q4_capex | 2027Q4 / upside | 9.00 USD_millions | assumption: Desk factory capacity and maintenance spending. No unapproved greenfield project assumed. |
| CFO less capex upside_2027q4_fcf | 2027Q4 / upside | 100.17 USD_millions | derived: Includes contract funding; excludes distributions and acquisitions. Formula: subtract(upside_2027q4_cfo, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| Revenue ($M) upside_fy2026_revenue | FY2026 / upside | 1,236.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_revenue, upside_2026q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) upside_fy2026_gross_profit | FY2026 / upside | 375.28 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_gross_profit, upside_2026q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) upside_fy2026_operating_income | FY2026 / upside | 251.13 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_operating_income, upside_2026q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2026 / upside | 58.07 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2026q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) upside_fy2026_contract_funding | FY2026 / upside | 228.76 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_contract_funding, upside_2026q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2026_cfo | FY2026 / upside | 286.83 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_cfo, upside_2026q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) upside_fy2026_capex | FY2026 / upside | 19.39 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_capex, upside_2026q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2026_fcf | FY2026 / upside | 267.44 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(ytd_fcf, upside_2026q4_fcf). |
| Revenue ($M) upside_fy2027_revenue | FY2027 / upside | 1,731.92 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_revenue, upside_2027q2_revenue, upside_2027q3_revenue, upside_2027q4_revenue). |
| GAAP gross profit ($M) upside_fy2027_gross_profit | FY2027 / upside | 554.21 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_gross_profit, upside_2027q2_gross_profit, upside_2027q3_gross_profit, upside_2027q4_gross_profit). |
| GAAP operating income ($M) upside_fy2027_operating_income | FY2027 / upside | 398.34 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_operating_income, upside_2027q2_operating_income, upside_2027q3_operating_income, upside_2027q4_operating_income). |
| CFO before contract funding ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo_before_contract_funding | FY2027 / upside | 233.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q2_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q3_cfo_before_contract_funding, upside_2027q4_cfo_before_contract_funding). |
| Net contract funding ($M) upside_fy2027_contract_funding | FY2027 / upside | 160.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_contract_funding, upside_2027q2_contract_funding, upside_2027q3_contract_funding, upside_2027q4_contract_funding). |
| Operating cash flow ($M) upside_fy2027_cfo | FY2027 / upside | 393.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_cfo, upside_2027q2_cfo, upside_2027q3_cfo, upside_2027q4_cfo). |
| Cash capex ($M) upside_fy2027_capex | FY2027 / upside | 36.00 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_capex, upside_2027q2_capex, upside_2027q3_capex, upside_2027q4_capex). |
| CFO less capex ($M) upside_fy2027_fcf | FY2027 / upside | 357.50 USD_millions | derived: Reported year-to-date amount plus remaining forecast quarters, or sum of four forecast quarters. Formula: sum(upside_2027q1_fcf, upside_2027q2_fcf, upside_2027q3_fcf, upside_2027q4_fcf). |
Model boundaries
- Desk scenarios are not a formal company revenue guide, paid consensus, a complete balance sheet or an equity valuation. Backlog timing is an expectation, not guaranteed revenue.
- The $1.3B twelve-month backlog conversion reference is a subset of approximately $2.4B total backlog. The large data-center, petrochemical and LNG awards are already included, not added again.
- Net order assumptions include modeled book-and-ship work. The backlog roll-forward subtracts total recognized revenue exactly once. New projects can cancel, resize or shift timing.
- Contract funding is the net operating cash-flow movement in contract assets and liabilities, not all customer deposits and not revenue. It can reverse as projects deliver.
- Cash taxes, interest income and non-contract working capital are explicit approximations, not a detailed cash-flow statement forecast. Capex excludes acquisitions and shareholder distributions.
- The April 2026 three-for-one split affects historical EPS comparability. Forecast EPS is omitted pending a full share-count and capital-return schedule. Fiscal year-end is September 30.
Backlog visibility with a separate cash-funding test
How much of record project demand turns into repeatable profit and cash as customer advances unwind?
Q3 revenue was $311.7M with $95.3M gross profit and $64.1M operating income. New net orders of $934.2M lifted backlog to approximately $2.4B. A data-center order above $400M and large petrochemical/LNG awards are included in that total. Management expects about $1.3B of June backlog revenue in the next twelve months. Nine-month CFO of $195.0M falls to $6.3M when the $188.8M net contract-funding cash contribution is removed; other working capital, including receivables, still affects that remainder. June cash was $633.6M and contract liabilities $466.4M. The model rolls orders and revenue through backlog and separately shows margins, other working capital, contract funding and expansion capex.
The competing explanation
Backlog can be large while project delivery slips or lower-margin jobs enter production. Customer advances can make current cash look stronger than the cash generated after fulfillment. Expanding capacity also risks fixed costs arriving before profitable volume.
Risks to track
- Large custom projects can delay, change scope or cancel.
- Data-center orders increase concentration and execution demands.
- Project mix and factory bottlenecks can compress gross margin.
- Contract funding can reverse as previously funded work is delivered.
- Expansion spending and engineering capacity must keep pace with commitments.
- Fiscal-year and split-adjusted per-share comparisons require care.
Next checkpoints
- Fiscal 2026 close · Quarter ending September 30; results date unconfirmed (estimated). Compare Q4 revenue, backlog conversion and project margins with scenarios.
- Jacintoport expansion · Company target by fiscal 2026 year-end (estimated). Confirm operating readiness and cash spending.
- Additional leased capacity · Fiscal 2027 company plan (estimated). Watch fixed costs, engineering staffing and on-time project delivery.
Data coverage and open work
- Desk scenarios are not a formal company revenue guide, paid consensus, a complete balance sheet or an equity valuation. Backlog timing is an expectation, not guaranteed revenue.
- The $1.3B twelve-month backlog conversion reference is a subset of approximately $2.4B total backlog. The large data-center, petrochemical and LNG awards are already included, not added again.
- Net order assumptions include modeled book-and-ship work. The backlog roll-forward subtracts total recognized revenue exactly once. New projects can cancel, resize or shift timing.
- Contract funding is the net operating cash-flow movement in contract assets and liabilities, not all customer deposits and not revenue. It can reverse as projects deliver.
- Cash taxes, interest income and non-contract working capital are explicit approximations, not a detailed cash-flow statement forecast. Capex excludes acquisitions and shareholder distributions.
- The April 2026 three-for-one split affects historical EPS comparability. Forecast EPS is omitted pending a full share-count and capital-return schedule. Fiscal year-end is September 30.
What the memory says
State as of the 2026-09-18 close: in a 120-day uptrend, below its 200-day, off the 52-week high, with overhead supply, ordinary volume, closed strong, and some peers moving
| Vs the market, in points | Low | Middle | High | Share up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 session | -1.8 | -0.0 | +1.7 | 48% |
| 5 sessions | -3.9 | -0.1 | +3.6 | 48% |
| 10 sessions | -5.8 | -0.2 | +4.7 | 47% |
Historical distributions of what followed similar states, measured before today's news. Not a forecast; no side.